RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Stephen Curry)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 3:56 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. There will also be a Nomination vote where whoever gets nominated by the most voters gets added to the Nominee list for subsequent votes. This is again optional.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Larry Bird

Kobe Bryant

Steph Curry

George Mikan

Jerry West

lessthanjake · Post #2 » by **lessthanjake** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 4:50 pm

Vote for #11: Stephen Curry
Alternate Vote: Larry Bird
Nomination: Moses Malone

My reasoning on Curry and Moses can be found in many posts in the last threads, so I’ll just refer back to those for now. My alternate vote is a toss up between Kobe and Bird—don’t really have a strong view between those two.

therealbig3 · Post #3 » by **therealbig3** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 5:01 pm

I feel like I’ve been underrating Kobe. Looking at the candidates here and seeing Magic go at 10…I think Kobe is a good candidate for top 10. I’d take him over the remaining candidates here in all likelihood. Although I think Dirk should have been nominated by this point. Think he’s still above Curry and West, has a reasonable case vs Kobe and Bird.

Post #4 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 5:21 pm

VOTE: Curry

Curry has the modernity edge where he has been the other dominant player to this board's #1 LeBron pick over the last decade. His gravity is the most extreme of the 3 with his ability to hit not just 3s, but really long 3s at a ridiculously effective clip warping defenses.

Alternative vote: George Mikan

Yes, his era was weak and he probably wouldn't be Joel Embiid level in today's game. But you can only meet the challenges given to you and he is arguably the most dominant player in the history of the game. Russell type winning (for less years), Wilt/MJ type statistical dominance, Mikan is more deserving than Jerry West, who was nearly as dominant -- for a guard -- as Mikan but in an era where centers were significantly more valuable than anyone else on the floor. He's more deserving than Kobe, who was a terrific player for a long time but never really stood out from his peers to anywhere near the same degree, not as a scorer though he was playoff resilient, not as a playmaker/rebounder/defender. He's more deserving than Larry Bird, who was a not outstanding (early) to weak (late) defender and whose playoff scoring was not resilient. Mikan is the last true dominant player left and while his era was one of racism and relatively low athleticism (much of which is due to playing over boards laid over ice rinks or concrete, in canvas sneakers, with questionable understanding of training techniques), it was still NBA basketball, the best in the world.

NOMINATE: David Robinson.

Oscar v. David Robinson v. Kevin Durant, any of the 3 is worth looking at. Since I nominated West last time and he and Oscar will just split the votes of those who are willing to vote for older players, I am going with basically the next Kevin Garnett vote, a dominant defensive force (I have him over Garnett, roughly equal with Hakeem), a strong offensive player for terrible teams that gave him little help, but one whose playoff scoring is not resilient either. Reverse that one series against Hakeem (individual and team results) and he'd be in already and Hakeem would be here.

Post #5 » by **Doctor MJ** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 5:55 pm

So, as we're through the first 10, I thought I'd take a moment to discuss guys likely to get a lot of discussion in the teens that aren't already Nominated. I think this is likely to be guys from the 11-20 range last time plus one new addition. Listing them out in alphabetical order, with some brief thoughts:

Kevin Durant - a very strong candidate who I think that in one particular way we've underrated, that being, many, many superteams have been put together trying to make the greatest team ever, but only one actually did it, and that was the Curry-KD Warriors. That's not a small thing. I do knock KD significantly for various things, but it's still a legendary career. After LeBron & Steph, I don't think I'd seriously consider another active player over him here.

Julius Erving - the dominant part of my name inspiration and imho the most beautiful style in history. The tricky part with him is that while I will die on the hill that is how freaking amazing his '75-76 Nets campaign was, his NBA career disappoints a bit compared to those lofty expectations.

Karl Malone - literally a candidate for GOAT regular season career, and the main thing we hold against him - no chips - had everything to do with guys already Inducted. I do think that the Sloan scheme that showcased Malone had a predictability that hurts Malone in my holistic evaluation, but I think it's important not convince ourselves that Malone is anything other than very impressive.

Moses Malone - has become one of the most polarizing players in recent years of this project, which is both interesting and understandable. Literally the clear-cut MVP of the most dominant post-season team of an era that includes both the Showtime Lakers and Bird Celtics. That's no small thing.

Dirk Nowitzki - Dirk's actually a sneaky strong candidate to me, and I should probably go into that soon.

Oscar Robertson - the guy I've already tried to Nominate before, and expect to be my selection in this thread. Literally an Offensive GOAT career candidate.

David Robinson - definitely a candidate. I'll say that he's kind of the opposite case from Karl Malone for me: With Robinson I feel a pull to elevate him up because I'm just so impressed by what he was able to do in a defense-first role in the playoffs, and how selfless he was in allowing the rookie to take on scoring primacy. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the advantage Malone had over him. Yes it's just one matchup, but when people are long time rivals, it's problematic not to think about how that rivalry actually played out.

Samurai · Post #6 » by **Samurai** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 6:08 pm

Vote for #11: Stephen Curry
GOAT shooter, period. Currently #1 in career FT%. Made more 3's than anyone in history. Only player in history to convert over 400 3's in a single season and holds 6 of the top 11 single season marks for most 3's.

Pretty much every fan knows about his shooting. But he isn't just a one-trick pony. Granted, he'll never have a DPOY trophy in his den, but in 2022 he had a DBPM of 4.31 which was higher than Marcus Smart, Jrue Holliday and Matisse Thybulle. Now 22 was clearly an outlier season and DBPM alone certainly doesn't mean he's an overall better defender than those elite defensive guards, but even one outlier season means it did happen. It's not imagining what he might have done under some imaginary time-machine scenario. Seeing pretty much every game of his career leads me to believe that he is an underrated defender and defensive rebounder.

Alternate: Larry Bird. Poetic justice that Bird should be going in close to the same time as Magic. Bird will get appropriately dinged for a short career among all-time greats but he was just so good at so many things during his prime that I'm very comfortable with him here.

Nominate: Oscar Robertson

rk2023 · Post #7 » by **rk2023** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 6:46 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:So, as we're through the first 10, I thought I'd take a moment to discuss guys likely to get a lot of discussion in the teens that aren't already Nominated. I think this is likely to be guys from the 11-20 range last time plus one new addition. Listing them out in alphabetical order, with some brief thoughts:

Kevin Durant - a very strong candidate who I think that in one particular way we've underrated, that being, many, many superteams have been put together trying to make the greatest team ever, but only one actually did it, and that was the Curry-KD Warriors. That's not a small thing. I do knock KD significantly for various things, but it's still a legendary career. After LeBron & Steph, I don't think I'd seriously consider another active player over him here.

Julius Erving - the dominant part of my name inspiration and imho the most beautiful style in history. The tricky part with him is that while I will die on the hill that is how freaking amazing his '75-76 Nets campaign was, his NBA career disappoints a bit compared to those lofty expectations.

Karl Malone - literally a candidate for GOAT regular season career, and the main thing we hold against him - no chips - had everything to do with guys already Inducted. I do think that the Sloan scheme that showcased Malone had a predictability that hurts Malone in my holistic evaluation, but I think it's important not convince ourselves that Malone is anything other than very impressive.

Moses Malone - has become one of the most polarizing players in recent years of this project, which is both interesting and understandable. Literally the clear-cut MVP of the most dominant post-season team of an era that includes both the Showtime Lakers and Bird Celtics. That's no small thing.

Dirk Nowitzki - Dirk's actually a sneaky strong candidate to me, and I should probably go into that soon.

Oscar Robertson - the guy I've already tried to Nominate before, and expect to be my selection in this thread. Literally an Offensive GOAT career candidate.

David Robinson - definitely a candidate. I'll say that he's kind of the opposite case from Karl Malone for me: With Robinson I feel a pull to elevate him up because I'm just so impressed by what he was able to do in a defense-first role in the playoffs, and how selfless he was in allowing the rookie to take on scoring primacy. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the advantage Malone had over him. Yes it's just one matchup, but when people are long time rivals, it's problematic not to think about how that rivalry actually played out.

Would add Paul and Nash to this grouping myself, but nothing short of a solid list of candidates here.

Post #8 » by **Doctor MJ** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 7:12 pm

rk2023 wrote:Would add Paul and Nash to this grouping myself, but nothing short of a solid list of candidates here.

If you feel that way than you should, and I certainly applaud all mentions of Nash even when they become before I'm ready to champion him.

iggymcfrack · Post #9 » by **iggymcfrack** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 7:39 pm

Vote: Stephen Curry
3rd-best analytics of the data ball era behind LeBron and KG, 4 rings as the best player on the team, what more needs to be said? Feels like he should cruise to an easy victory here.

Alternate: Larry Bird

Nominate: David Robinson
At this point, I really want to focus on the nomination part of the exercise and David Robinson. As it stands right now, I won't have anyone in my top 20 to vote for while David Robinson is a strong #9 who I think is much closer to the other elite 2 way bigs that have been voted in already than he is to the upcoming nominees. Let's compare him to the other elite 2 way bigs, the current nominees, and the likely competition to be the next nominee in a bunch of different categories:

3-year peak PER (regular season)
Wilt 31.8
Robinson 29.8
Kareem 29.1
Garnett 28.2
Curry 28.1
Mikan 28.0
Dirk 27.1
Duncan 27.0
Bird 26.6
Oscar 26.5
Hakeem 26.2
Kobe 26.1
West 24.6

I know a lot of people don't like PER, but it's one of the best tools we have to compare players from the '60s to modern guys since BPM wasn't available at the time. PER's biggest weakness is that it underrates elite defense where Robinson's an all-time and also it's league adjusted so it will tend to underrate guys who played tougher competition. In both cases, Robinson is actually very disadvantaged compared to Oscar and West and I'm guessing the nomination will likely come down to Robinson vs. Oscar.

10-year average PER (regular season)
Wilt 28.2
Robinson 27.7
Kareem 27.3
Mikan 27.1 (averaging all 4 years where stat is available)
Curry 25.9
Garnett 25.5
Duncan 25.5
Hakeem 24.9
Dirk 24.8
Kobe 24.6
Oscar 24.5
Bird 24.1
West 23.7

Interestingly, Robinson is the only one who didn't play in the very early NBA in the top three. OK, I hear you saying. Sure, Robinson got it done in the regular season, but what about the postseason? Samples are too screwy in the postseason to be consistent across a 3-season span, so let's look at 10 year spans in the postseason:

10-year average PER (postseason)
Mikan 28.5 (again, only 4 years measurable by PER)
Hakeem 26.9
Kareem 26.4
Duncan 26.4
Wilt 25.4
Dirk 25.0
Robinson 23.9
Garnett 23.9
West 23.7
Kobe 23.5
Oscar 23.5
Curry 23.2
Bird 22.1

So yes, Robinson's numbers do dip from the regular season to the postseason, but not as much as you might think. He's actually right at the median in pure box score numbers which won't come close to showing his true defensive value. OK, so now that we've got a decent idea where the early NBA guys rank on the scale, let's look at some better numbers. How about BPM? Gonna just look at the post-Kareem guys now since his peak was before the advent of BPM:

3-year average BPM (regular season)
Robinson 10.0
Curry 9.7
Bird 9.0
Garnett 8.5
Duncan 7.9
Dirk 7.9
Kobe 7.8
Hakeem 6.6

Robinson's comfortably top of the heap here with just his box score numbers, eclipsing even Curry's supernova like peak. Let's see how it looks over a 10-year sample:

10-year average BPM (regular season)
Robinson 8.5
Curry 8.1
Garnett 7.5
Bird 7.3
Duncan 6.5
Kobe 6.1
Dirk 6.0
Hakeem 5.9

Once again, in either the short or long term, Robinson has better numbers than any of the competition. Clearly, he's one of the best regular season players of all-time. All right, well let's see how he ranks in the postseason by BPM:

10-year average BPM (postseason)
Hakeem 7.5
Duncan 7.4
Bird 7.4
Curry 7.2
Garnett 7.0
Robinson 6.7
Dirk 6.7
Kobe 6.1

He's a little behind the peak 2-way superstars that have gone already, but it's very close. The difference between Robinson and the top of the list is smaller than the difference between Robinson and 3rd in the regular season. His numbers do fall, and they're not tippy top, and I actually would have him behind the other elite 2-way bigs on that list, but it's very close. OK, so how about impact stats. In a discussion on Kevin Garnett in another thread, I saw that someone very helpfully posted on/off data for Robinson's 3-year peak from 1994-1996:

3-year peak on/off (regular season)
Curry +19.3
Robinson +18.7
Garnett +18.2
Dirk +15.5
Duncan +13.7
Kobe +10.1

His impact is peak level. Right in the middle of Curry and KG for best all-time. If I were to add other elite modern players like LeBron and Shaq to this sample, they'd be further down the list. OK, well how does that impact translate to the postseason?

Career playoff on/off
Robinson +18.9 (age 32 and over only)
Curry +12.0
Garnett +11.3
Kobe +7.6
Duncan +7.5
Dirk +2.0
Hakeem -1.4 (age 34 and over only)

When we look at postseason impact numbers, he jumps off the page! Remember, he was also mostly staggering with Duncan over this period as much as he could. I think it's very likely that a lot of what Robinson might have lost offensively in the postseason, he gained defensively by locking in even more to keep the opposition from scoring. The sample's larger than you might think too as with all the deep runs the Spurs made, Robinson played more playoff minutes from 1998-2003 than Kevin Garnett did his entire first run in Minnesota that spanned 12 seasons.

Again, remember on top of the numbers that show Robinson's greatness, he's one of the best defensive players of ALL-TIME!!! If you average the 88/89 season before he got there and the 96/97 season where he was injured, the Spurs had a rDRtg that was 2.9 points worse than average. While he was manning the middle from 90-96, the Spurs DRtg was 3.2 points better than average. That's a massive difference of over 6 points per game. That's practically Russell level impact. He absolutely deserves to be nominated at this point of the process if not voted in immediately afterwards!

Gibson22 · Post #10 » by **Gibson22** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 7:53 pm

Voting post:
Vote: Jerry West
Alternate Vote: Stephen Curry
Nomination: Oscar Robertson

This one for me is tought between Curry, bird and west, and also oscar but he isn't a candidate.
Those 3 all have similar longevity. All 3 of them are between 880 and 950 games played, and between 147 and 162 playoff games played. West played 14 seasons, he was all star caliber in 61 and was great from from 62 to 73, but missed the whole postseason in 67 and didn't make the playoffs in 71. Bird played 12 seasons (+1 injured) was great from 80 to 88, and still an all nba caliber player in 90 and 91 and maybe an all star caliber in 92. Curry played 12 seasons (+2 injured) He was all nba caliber in 13 and 14, was great from 15 to 23 with the exception of missing 2020 and missing the playoffs in 2021, and maybe in 2023 he had more of an all nba caliber season than mvp one. Curry also has a few missed games in the playoffs. Curry has 4x 1st team 4x 2ndteam 1x third team, bird has 9x 1st team 1x 2nd team, west has 10x 1st team 2x 2nd team. In our POTY project, west is ranked somewhere in the top 7 every year from 62 to 73 except 67. Bird is ranked (on average, much higher than the other 2) every year from 80 to 88. Curry has been ranked from 13 to 23 with the exception of 2020.

So, I'd say that west has the longevity advantage, especially era relative, which is important in what is for me a very close battle, goes to west.

Now, defensively, I think that the order is pretty clear. West, being one of the best defensive guards ever, being so athletically gifted and fierce, so good at blocks and steals, has a pretty big advantage over bird, despite bird being 6'9 and a decent defender, and bird has a big advantage on curry, which to me is slightly below the average starting pg defensively. Even if you have him as a slightly positive or decent defender, its pretty clear that curry is around a +-0 defender, not a huge liability, not an impactful defender. Bird was above average 6'9", west was, by all accounts, an historically great guard defender.

Offensively, it's a bit tough to say, all of them are like, top 10 offensive players and in the first couple tiers: Magic, Nash, Jordan, LeBron, Curry, West, Oscar, Bird, Jokic. My tentative ranking would probably be curry, bird, west, because I feel like curry's spacing, off ball movement etc creates a super-virtous enviroment, bird's shooting at 6'9 + touch passing and movement does it a little less and west's shooting + sg type 1-2 dribbles shot creation does it a little less. West has the on ball creation advantage, pretty clearly, over the two other guys. Jerry was basically a michael jordan, kobe bryant type of shot creator, being elite at both driving and jumpshooting, and having that ability of just rising up for a tough shot or just scoring with clogged lanes and stuff. West was kind of the michael jordan of his time in a way, both super competitive, fundamentally sound, athletic and great at getting to the rim (obviously west not as much as mj) and also great shooters and tough shot makers (mj not comperatively as good of a shooter as west, even tho I have him as the greatest midrange shooter ever). Out of these 3, curry is the only one where you can have doubts about how much of his success, and of the virtouos offensive enviroment that he seems to create, may be attributed to his teammates (draymond, klay) and to his coach, considering how much less successfull he and his teams were and how "normal looking" his team's offense was before he turned 26, which is pretty strange. You can't say the same for bird, who was the main reason for his team adding 32 (? i guess) wins in his rookie season, and west, who did play with baylor but was clearly more impactful than him and also just being more of a prototypical creator or shot creator.

West, also, I don't wanna downright say he's the best playoff performer but he has the most legendary playoff performances, and I do kinda feel like is the best playoff performer, while bird took a few year to get his playoff level on par to his rs and curry has had his bad moments at the start of his playoff career, like, even in general west's playstyle is more playoff resilient compared to the other two.

West and Curry have that all time level scoring efficiency, which bird lacked because he was midrange heavy and didnt shoot a lot of free throws. Bird's type would be super efficient today (a lot more 3s, paint less clogged, most opposing lineups having 0 to 1 guy as tall or taller than him most of the times and rarely a lot taller thaan him), but in his era he wasn't very efficient as far as just percentages.

Bird and curry notoriously led all time great offenses, bird having elite ones for all of his career, while curry only in the peak of the warriors' success (2015 to 2019), but west's offenses weren't bed either: leaving out his rookie and last season from 3, 4, 2, 2, 1 (all of these out of 9) 5 out of 10 (missed po), 1, 2 (out of 12), 8 (out of 14), 1, 2 (out of 17).

Obviously, curry and bird have a lot of team success, 4 rings and 2 finals for curry and 3 rings and 2 finals (and a lot other playoff series wins) for bird. Just 1 ring for west. But, realistically, west lost 8 finals, 6 of them being against the celtics. then he lost twice against the bob pettit hawks, once against the 67 wilt 76ers, and twice against the champions new york knicks. He also lost 5 times in game 7, and once in the deciding game 5, a few times in very close or unfortuante circumstances.

This part about jerry west's offenses and who beat him is important to me because, at first tought, and what does happen to me maybe even with garnett or things like that, I'm tempted to think that like, it is what it is, whatever is the reason, bird and curry had great success which west didn't, but that isnt really the case. If I had to rank luck as far as: teammates: curry bird west. luck as far as circumstances: curry bird west. Luck as far as opponents: west bird curry. About that, shout out bird for how hard his opponents were: man!

Another thing I think it's important, which in this case west doesn't have, is: bird was the clear cut best player in the world from 84 to 86. He was like, a top 4 player in 80 after erving kaj moses, the best in 81, top 5 in 82, top 3 in 83, clear cut best in 84 and 86 and top 2 in 85, probably 1st above magic, then he was top 3 in 87 and 88 (the two mjs). Curry wasn't ever that, or better yet, he did had the league in his hands before blowing the 3-1 lead, so realistically he was #1 in 2015, or he was #1 in the rs and part of the playoffs, and by far number 1 in the 2016 rs before failing in the finals. so realistically lets say top 2 in 2015 and 2016, then generally a top from 17 to 19, top 2 in 2022? he has good arguments for being the best player in 2015 and 2016 and 2022, with 17/18 still arguably being perfect years, but yeah... West was always below bill, wilt and often below oscar, he has arguments for #1 and easily top 2 in 1969, was the best player in 1970 over kaj, frazier. so yeah, he was basically a top 5 player for his whole career but there wasnt ever a time where he was the best player in basketball and until 68 he was almost always below wilt and bill and more often than not oscar...

All in all, I' guess I'm voting west. The man has a longevity advantage and a huge defensive advantage. At that point, good luck covering the gap with offense, when west is imho a top 10 offensive player ever. I think west has the best longevity, the best defense, the best on ball creation, the best playoff performances, he's the most athletic. The other two are better off ball players, which west is still a great one.

Realistically, I would say that honestly I don't feel that comfortable or sure having west and oscar below anybody thats not in the top 5... they just are very old and don't have the rings or raw numbers to make them stand out like bill or wilt

One_and_Done · Post #11 » by **One_and_Done** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:07 pm

Vote: Curry

Alternate: Bird

Nominate:D.Rob (as KD isn't getting traction yet)

We’re now getting down into the gritty part of the voting, so I think it’s time for some more in depth cases to be made for new candidates, as I think things will open up after the #12 vote. RE: CurryI feel he has the higher peak than Magic or KG and lets you build a more devastating system around him. KG helps you build a system defensively, but on offense he’s more a complementary player. He's in now, so Curry should be in soon too.

Curry is the GOAT offensive player though, and his unique ability to supercharge your offense is just more valuable than what say KG does. He’s changed the game forever; and not in a superficial, narrative way. Every team plays differently because of Curry. The league changed a lot from 2010 to 2011, because teams like the Mavs started using modern defensive concepts in conjunction with modern offensive ones. From 2005 we’d seen teams like the Suns start to lean into modern D.Antoni offensive concepts, and from 2008 we saw the Celtics bring Thibs strong side D defensive concepts. The Mavs were the first team to really bring elements from both to the table, and then the Heatles adapted and did the same. The realised they couldn’t play Joel Anthony at the 5, and put Bosh there. Guys like Hibbert started to become unplayable, and teams like the Spurs were doing much the same. Then the Warrors emerged under Kerr and really leaned into it. The league from 2015 changed so much that the pre-2011 NBA doesn’t really compare to it at all. That was where the modern NBA really got into gear. I don’t think many pre-2011 teams, including KG’s Celtics, would have had much of a chance against the champs from 2011 to 2020. Even in years like 2016, 2017 or 2018, I’m not sure most of the champs from the previous decade would even be top 4 teams in those years.

So who do I think we should nominate next. I’m torn between several candidates. First is KD, who would be my first choice for the reasons set out below. Unfortunately he may not get any traction.

Spoiler:

As for Durant vs Kobe I don’t understand the argument for Kobe. Durant was a better scorer, better defender, and a better complementary piece who fit in more easily with others. His longevity is enough that any minor advantage Kobe has is negated.

Let’s just look at a peak to peak comparison to start with. Because KD has the consistency of a metronome (when he’s on the court), a number of different years can be advanced as his “peak”. But 2014 seems to have the strongest case. So let’s look at 2014 KD v.s 2008 Kobe (which is often advanced as Kobe’s best year).

KD: 41.8 pp 100, 9.6 rp 100, 7.2 ap 100, 123 Ortg, 104 Drtg, on an insane 635. TS%

Kobe: 36.5 pp 100, 8.1 rp 100, 6.9 ap 100, 115 Ortg, 106 Drtg, on 576. TS%

KD is better in literally every, single category, and not by a small margin. But let’s be fair to them and look at a bigger, more representative sample.

Here’s KD from 2010 to 2023, a 13 year stretch if we exclude 2020.

RS per 100: 38.2, 10, 6.3, 120 Ortg, 106 Drtg, on 631. TS%

PS per 100: 36.9, 9.8, 5.3, 115 Ortg, 108 Drtg 598. TS%

Kobe from 2000 to 2013:

RS per 100: 37.1, 7.6, 6.9, 112 Ortg, 105 Drtg, TS% 556.

PS per 100: 35.3, 6.9, 6.5, 110 Ortg, 106 Drtg, TS% 543.

So again, KD is basically beating him in every single category except for a trivial defensive rating difference, which could just be noise given how close it is and the sample size. He’s scoring more, and scoring more on insane efficiency. Even his assists are similar, despite Kobe’s supposed passing advantage (which FYI isn’t much of an advantage if you don’t like passing). The difference in Ortg is insane. KD is just cooking him.

On the defensive end KD is almost 7 feet tall with crazy long arms, so he can to a limited extent provide rim protection and switch on to bigger guys, all of which was key to his time on the Warriors. KD fits so much better than Kobe in so many situations, needing a lower usage and complementing other guys. KD was also misused to some degree in OKC, with it now being apparent in hindsight that Westbrook was not an optimal co-star for KD (to put it lightly). He often played with poor spacing in OKC, and thrived anyway.

But let’s turn to the one thing Kobe supporters can maybe argue, which is longevity. I don’t buy this, because KD has had enough longevity to score almost 27K points despite playing through several seasons cut short by COVID and lock outs, so at that point I’d say he has “enough” longevity that unless the person he’s being compared to is a comparably good player longevity isn’t enough to move the needle. But then I’m not even sure we can criticise KD’s longevity too much. Kobe has basically 12-13 healthy-ish, prime type seasons. His last few seasons were negative value add, and the early part of his career is mostly not adding too much. If we took out those years Kobe actually only has 28k+ points, so barely different to KD (who isn’t done yet either).

But what of KD? He was healthy from 2010 to 2014. That’s 5 prime seasons right there. 2016 healthy. That’s 6. 2017 and 2018 he was being rested and was out by design basically, I count those as healthy seasons. KD is up to 8 prime seasons. 2019? He was healthy all the way to the finals, then had an injury. I don’t dock him for that because it’s absurd. It would be rewarding guys like Kobe for getting bounced out in the first round, before they had a chance to injure themselves. That’s 9 prime seasons. In my mind that’s enough to overcome Kobe’s longevity easily. But I also feel KD added good value from 2021 to 2023. In those 3 seasons some of the games he missed were for rest, or due to reasons having nothing to do with injury; if he and the team were keen on him playing more, he could have. He was also healthy for the playoffs in 2021 and 2023 when it mattered (which is what he was being rested for).

I just don’t see what Kobe’s argument over KD would be. KD is just flat out better.

I’d also be interested in Karl Malone, who has more longevity than most if not all remaining candidates, and whose case v.s Kobe I discussed below. Moses Malone has a lot of longevity also, but I am doubtful about how his game would translate today. He feels like a player who was built for a different era, and that holds him back a little.

Spoiler:

Dr J seems to have peaked higher than Kobe, who has already been nominated, as I discuss below.

Spoiler:

There’s also D.Rob, who doesn’t have great longevity, but arguably has “enough” that it doesn’t matter. Giannis is another player in this category. Yeh, sure, Giannis only has 10 years in the league; but when Jordan first retired he only had 9 and people were already calling him one of the greatest ever. In today’s game would Jordan really be more impactful than Giannis? I have my doubts. Just comparing Giannis/D.Rob/Dirk/Kobe’s best seasons, here’s how they come out:

Giannis 2019-23 – 42.6 pp100, 17.6 rp100, 8.4 ap100, 120 Ortg/103 Drtg, 625 TS%

D.Rob (pre-Duncan) prime 90-96 – 33.9 pp100, 15.6 rp100, 4.1 ap100, 118 Ortg/97 Drtg, 592 TS%

Dirk (post-Nash) prime 2005-11 RS – 35.7 pp100, 12.1 rp100, 4.2 ap100, 119 Ortg/104 Drtg, 586 TS%.

Kobe (post-Shaq) prime 2006-10 RS – 39.2 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.6ap100, 114 Ortg/106 Drtg, 565 TS%

How about playoffs?

Giannis 19-23: 39 pp100, 17.8 rp100, 7.5 apg, 113 Ortg/ 102 Drtg 580 TS%

D.Rob 90-96: 31.6 pp100, 15.5 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 113 Ortg/101 Drtg 557 TS%

Dirk 05-11: 34.3 pp100, 13.3 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 119 Ortg/107 Drtg, 586 TS%

Kobe 06-10: 38.1 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.9 ap100, 114 Ortg/108 Drtg, 570 TS%

So the first observation is that Giannis is the best of the bunch and it’s not close. The only reason not to take him yet is if you don’t think he has “enough” longevity. He isn’t just a force offensively, he’s one of the best defensive players you could have in the modern era. Defense is something that’s hard to measure, but I think we can all agree D.Rob and Giannis are 2 of the best defensive players ever. Then on the other end they’d only need to be solid to be in discussion here. But they’re not just solid. Giannis is flat out better than the rest on offense, and while D.Rob is the “worst” of the 4 in the playoffs on O, he’s still close enough that I don’t know that the others have much of a case over him given his all-time defensive anchoring ability. If you’re taking Dirk or Kobe it’s got to be on longevity. Kobe looks the worst on balance by far. He’s 2nd of the group on volume scoring, but he does it by having bad efficiency which is probably part of why his TS% is the worst of anyone except playoffs D.Rob, and his Ortg is the worst of the bunch on balance (because regular season isn’t worthless, your performance there adds a lot of value). Then factor in this is literally Kobe’s very best stretch. If we’d run this from 00-10 for instance, he’d look so much worse (see above comparison with KD).

Dirk’s high end run in the 2011 playoffs is a level of impact neither D.Rob nor Kobe had during a singular playoff run, putting up 39.1 pp100, 11.5 rp100, 3.6 ap100 on 115 Ortg/105 Drtg, and 609 TS% while taking out Kobe’s Lakers, KD’s Thunder, and Blazers, and the first incarnation of the Heatles, is crazy impressive. Yeh, they’d have gone down to the 2012 Heatles once they balanced the team a little and figured out the line-ups to play, etc, but nobody expected them to win that year. They weren’t even supposed to beat the Lakers, and they ka-rushed them. Check out the stat-line of 32 year old Kobe v.s 32 year old Dirk. It’s not pretty. Kobe had 23.3 ppg, 3rpg, 2.5 apg on 519 TS%, v.s Dirk’s 25.3ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5apg on an insane 673 TS%.

70sFan · Post #12 » by **70sFan** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:21 pm

I really don't want to make it sound bad, but picking Giannis offensively over Dirk because he scored more points per possession in the playoffs is... I don't know, let's call it quite limited way to analyze basketball.

One_and_Done · Post #13 » by **One_and_Done** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:26 pm

70sFan wrote:I really don't want to make it sound bad, but picking Giannis offensively over Dirk because he scored more points per possession in the playoffs is... I don't know, let's call it quite limited way to analyze basketball.

More rebounds and assists too.

Giannis has been an all-timer on D in the playoffs. Dirk is bad in that end. So even if Dirk was a little better on O, it seems like Giannis would be the easy call (and I'm not sure Giannis wasn't better on O too).

Post #14 » by **Doctor MJ** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:31 pm

70sFan wrote:I really don't want to make it sound bad, but picking Giannis offensively over Dirk because he scored more points per possession in the playoffs is... I don't know, let's call it quite limited way to analyze basketball.

Yeah so I think we have to talk about this but need to tread carefully.

Dirk & Giannis play offense completely differently from each other, and it's missing a lot of important information if we try to compare them based solely on box score.

Acknowledging up front that I consider Dirk in his offensive role to be considerably more valuable than Giannis in his to this point in their careers, but I think the more important thing to communicate is there should be no assumption of equivalence between the two regardless of which approach you conclude works better in a team context.

trelos6 · Post #15 » by **trelos6** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:32 pm

Curry dominates the scoring / efficiency, while also being close with Magic in creation and turnovers.

I have Curry’s peak a touch higher than Bird and Magic.

All 3 have 8 MVP level years, an additional weak MVP level year. I give Magic 2 extra All-Star seasons, Larry 1, and Steph 0, but it’s negligible considering their 9 year primes.

I also grade Larry Bird as the best defender of the 3, however he grades out significantly worse in creation metrics. Although, I do like Larry as a creator, he’s just a step below the top tier guys.

Onto my official vote, for which I cannot deny the high scoring and high efficiency from Steph Curry.

#11. Steph Curry
#12. Larry Bird

Nomination: David Robinson

ZeppelinPage · Post #16 » by **ZeppelinPage** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 8:44 pm

Vote: Jerry West
Nomination: Oscar Robertson

Oscar is the next nomination for me. In terms of overall on-court impact, it's hard to argue against Oscar's offensive abilities with how he was able to generate offense for himself and teammates. The film on prime Oscar is lacking (although it does look good), but he was underrated scorer that could both drive and shoot mid range jumpers off post-ups. He was fantastic at finding openings through his threat to score and he could place the ball in tight pockets with expert bounce passes. Factoring in his overall game and the difficulty of the rules he played in I find his impact extremely impressive. Now, onto West:

Rk2023's Post on Jerry West

Total Career Minutes Among Players Inducted or Nominated:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 66,297
LeBron James: 65,747
Kobe Bryant: 57,278
Tim Duncan: 56,738
Kevin Garnett: 55,701
Wilt Chamberlain: 55,418
Shaquille O'Neal: 50,016
Hakeem Olajuwon: 49,971
Michael Jordan: 48,485
Bill Russell: 48,223
Jerry West: 42,892
Larry Bird: 41,329
Magic Johnson: 40,783
Stephen Curry: 35,794
George Mikan: 9,850

As much as West was injured during the regular season, he was routinely making the Finals and those minutes add up. So, considering the fact that Magic's career was enough to place him 10th, did West play enough to warrant voting him in here? While durability is something often harped on with West, I believe he still played enough minutes (especially in the playoffs) to keep that from being a problem.

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Everyone here is knowledgeable enough to know just how good West was on offense during his time. His TS+ numbers on such a high volume are among the greatest ever. He was a fantastic all-around player that could drive or utilize his lighting fast pull-up to catch defenders off-guard.

What I did want to bring to light was Jerry West's defensive ability. Earlier I saw someone mention something along the lines of "West was a good defender but nothing spectacular" so I did want to go into a little more detail about what coaches, players, and writers of the time thought about West's defense. This is important because, while there is a good amount of footage on West out there, nobody watched West more than these contemporary sources. Afterwards, I wanted to show more of what West can do on film.

"I don't even like to talk about myself but I think I would have set a steal record that no one would have ever come close to--no one."
-- Jerry West on Point Forward with Andre Igoudala and Evan Turner

"I think the best player that I had play defense against me was Jerry West."
-- Sam Jones in a 2011 ESPN interview

Jerry West was around 6'5" in shoes. He's spoken about his athletic abilities before, but he was quite a standout in his era and would hold up even today. He was quick, long (around a 6'9" wingspan), and could jump higher than most players.

Through my research I've found what seems like countless mentions of Jerry West's defense. His stealing and blocking ability was frequently mentioned:

"Certainly, he blocks more shots than any other guard ever and more than most centers. Then, too, he breaks up a lot of plays."
-- Bill Sharman in 1965, years before he coached West

Spoiler:

"Jerry is a superstar on offense who can be just as valuable on defense and you can't find too many of those around . . . He blocks more shots than any other guard."
-- Warriors Coach Bill Sharman in 1967, years before he coached West

Spoiler:

"At his position, nobody does as good an all-around job. Bill Russell is 6-10, so he is big enough to plug up the middle, but West deflects more passes and blocks a lot of shots."
-- Fred Schaus in 1967

Spoiler:

"...I lost count of all his steals and blocked shots."
--Basketball column by John Hall following 1968 Western Conference Finals

Spoiler:

"Sure, Jerry gets a lot of steals, but people often overlook how many times he touches the ball on defense during the game. He has the quickest hands of any player I've ever seen."
-- Hot Rod Hundley on West in 1969

Spoiler:

"[Jerry West] merely leads the NBA in assists and the world in steals, deflected passes and broken dribbles."
-- 1970

Spoiler:

Jerry West records 7 steals in the 3rd quarter against the Sonics:

Spoiler:

Jerry West records 9 steals and a "few" blocks:

Spoiler:

Jerry West records 10 steals in three quarters:

Spoiler:

Jerry West records 12 steals against the Phoenix Suns in the 1970 playoffs:

Spoiler:

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Praise of West's general defensive abilities was also common:

"Right close by his offensive prowess was his defensive ability, and to me, Jerry West was the most underrated defensive player in that era."
-- Red Auerbach

"West is the greatest superstar in the league at both ends of the court."
-- Warriors Coach Bill Sharman in 1968, years before he coached West

Spoiler:

"I've often said he's the best defensive guard EVER to play the game . . . I know he has two or three times more blocked shots than any guard who lived."
-- Lakers coach Bill Sharman in 1973

Spoiler:

"He is the best defensive guard in the league."
-- Chicago Bulls coach Johnny Kerr in 1968

Spoiler:

"It's the best defensive job done on me this year -- or any year for that matter."
-- Hall of Famer Lou Hudson after 1970 Western Conference Finals where Jerry West held him to 16.3 PPG on a 29 FG%

Spoiler:

"Jerry's defense is what they miss the most when he's not there . . . West gives more defensive effort when the other team has the ball than any other of the big offensive stars in the entire NBA."
--Cincinnati Royals player on West in 1964

Spoiler:

This is all just a snippet of many more mentions regarding West's defense that I have found, far too many to list here.

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Let's take a look at the film and see if it supports what contemporary accounts are telling us.

West has described "seeing the game in slow motion" and thinking about the game in "angles" as a key reason for his impactful defense. His long arms and quick hands could find these angles and poke the ball free. This, combined with his leaping ability, led to plays like this:

West Steal to Win Game 3 of 1962 Finals:

Spoiler:

West 3 Blocks vs Warriors - 1964:

Spoiler:

West 2-on-1 Transition Block into Steal (Lakers Coach Fred Schaus Commentating) - 1965:

Spoiler:

West Back-to-Back Steals at End of Game 7 of the 1966 Finals:

Spoiler:

West Steal and Block vs 76ers - 1969:

Spoiler:

West Pressuring and Deflecting - 1969 Western Conference Finals:

Spoiler:

West Blocks Sam Jones Twice and Steals Pass - Game 1 of 1969 Finals:

Spoiler:

West Disrupts Celtics in Transition for Steal and Reads Pass for Steal - Game 4 of 1969 Finals:

Spoiler:

West Uses Length to Strip Connie Hawkins - Game 7 of 1970 Western Division Semifinals:

Spoiler:

West Pokes Ball Away for Steal - 1970:

Spoiler:

West's threat level on defense could help negate the transition game of teams like the Celtics. In Game 7 of the 1962 NBA Finals, Jerry West falls back off missed shots to ensure he's there to disrupt the Celtics' fast break. Not only does he block this Sam Jones drive:

Spoiler:

But his presence alone was making it more difficult to pass or get open looks:

Spoiler:

Much like the written sources, this is but a tiny glimpse of West's defense, but he consistently displays this high-impact defense that is mentioned from people of the time period. I believe West is one of the greatest defenders of his era, and among the greatest stealers and off-ball defenders to ever play the game.

iggymcfrack · Post #17 » by **iggymcfrack** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 9:21 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:I really don't want to make it sound bad, but picking Giannis offensively over Dirk because he scored more points per possession in the playoffs is... I don't know, let's call it quite limited way to analyze basketball.

More rebounds and assists too.

Giannis has been an all-timer on D in the playoffs. Dirk is bad in that end. So even if Dirk was a little better on O, it seems like Giannis would be the easy call (and I'm not sure Giannis wasn't better on O too).

Dirk was absolutely not “bad” on defense. He had a positive DRAPM something like 10 seasons in a row. By Cleaning the Glass, his defensive on/off was in the top quartile 5 times and in the bottom quartile 0 from 2003/04 on, even including his final season. The gap between D-Rob and Giannis defensively is larger than the gap between Giannis and Dirk IMO.

One_and_Done · Post #18 » by **One_and_Done** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 9:27 pm

That last sentence was a pretty out there remark. Giannis is a perennial DPOY candidate. Dirk was somewhere between bad and solid. To claim the gap between Giannis and Dirk is smaller than between D.Rob and Giannis is clearly absurd. The Mavs would often hide Dirk on the worst offensive player. Giannis is even now maybe still the best defensive player in the NBA on balance. I say that as someone who wants to vote for Dirk soon.

lessthanjake · Post #19 » by **lessthanjake** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 9:35 pm

My biggest concern with David Robinson is that he really only had like 7 seasons as a major star. Maybe we could count 1998 and 1999 too, but I don’t know. I feel like those 7 seasons were great. The impact numbers we know on them are really good (on-off for the last three years of it are sky high with good “on”, WOWYR is sky high, the team was very bad the year before he showed up and the year he was injured, etc.). And, after that, he was an impactful player on a team that was good and even won two titles (with one of them being when he was still a very significant player). He was a great player, but the longevity is really low. Like, I don’t even think he’s really got *that* much of a longevity advantage against present-day guys like Giannis and Jokic.

To me, Robinson feels like a Garnett that has no pre-prime period, a shorter period as a major star (both with high impact and limited playoff success on a team with a bad supporting cast), and a shorter period as a post-prime post-prime player on a great and successful team. I actually feel like prime Robinson was probably a better basketball player than prime Garnett, but there’s just a lot less years of contribution there (and, while Garnett has already been voted in, I personally wouldn’t have voted him in at this point or anytime super soon).

Another analogy would be to Dwyane Wade, who had a similar number of prime years, followed by a similar number of years as an actual significant contributor on a great team. Robinson feels to me like he may have been the more impactful player, but at the same time, Wade did something Robinson never did—which is be the #1 player on a title team (and did so in extremely strong fashion in terms of playoff performance). Robinson perhaps didn’t have as much of a chance to do so, but the 2006 Heat actually weren’t a particularly great team, and in any event I don’t favor ranking players based on what they hypothetically could’ve done as opposed to what they actually did do.

OhayoKD · Post #20 » by **OhayoKD** » Tue Aug 1, 2023 9:42 pm

One_and_Done wrote:That last sentence was a pretty out there remark. Giannis is a perennial DPOY candidate. Dirk was somewhere between bad and solid. To claim the gap between Giannis and Dirk is smaller than between D.Rob and Giannis is clearly absurd. The Mavs would often hide Dirk on the worst offensive player. Giannis is even now maybe still the best defensive player in the NBA on balance. I say that as someone who wants to vote for Dirk soon.

Yup. Dirk's case is longevity.