RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Stephen Curry)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#81 » by penbeast0 » Wed Aug 2, 2023 12:56 pm

One_and_Done wrote:What if I told you Durant has a higher Wowzy score. His PiMpp numbers are 0.2 higher as well, that's gotta mean something right?

If people want to argue against KD I'd prefer an argument, not a recitation of obscure numbers. This isn't a video game.

Harden has a habit of dropping off in the playoffs. KDs game is more resilient there. If it wasn't I'd be considering Harden soon, and I'm still going to consider him before long. Barkley is worthy of condideration also. Both Harden & Barkley peaked higher than the majority of nominees currently available. If Barkley had played in the 60s he'd be remembered as the GOAT no doubt.


If Barkley put up the same numbers in the 60s, he'd be discounted by the posters who don't respect the era. If Barkley had played defense, he'd have rings and be remembered as the second best player of his era; but he didn't.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#82 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 2, 2023 1:04 pm

One_and_Done wrote:1) KD has been the offensive hub of teams. Even if we granted he was a worse playmaker (and assists per 100 are close, depending on the sample used), so what? Shaq was a worse playmaker than Kobe too. He was the better offensive player nonetheless. How great of a playmaker do you need to be? It depends on what sort of game you have. What matters isn't playmaking, or skill xyz, it's impact. KD's Ortg tells us he was producing better offenses than Kobe.

The difference between Shaq and KD is that you can't really take away what made Shaq so great (huge creation of inside chances, massive pressure on teams defenses and constant danger of foul trouble) without throwing whole team on him, which resulted in the amazing offenses in the postseason in all teams Shaq played in. Meanwhile, teams don't really need to use the same resources to limit KD's effectiveness.

About impact - well, you didn't want to hear any numbers from me, but if you bring up ORtg:

Postseason rORtg of KD and KB teams:

2010-23 KD: +6.0
2000-13 KB: +5.8

OKC only: +5.5
GSW only: +7.5
2021-23: +4.4

2000-04 (with Shaq): +7.0
2006-12 (without Shaq): +5.0

They look basically identical in this comparison. I didn't adjust for games KD missed in the playoffs in 2019, but I doubt it would change much in the overall rating.

2) I noted some of the OKC samples when Westbrook was out, e.g. in 2014. KD still led the team to success without him.

You mean the same season when they faced Grizzlies without Westbrook and OKC posted a staggering 98.2 ORtg (-2.1 rORtg) and lost in 5 games?

In the Bucks series in 2 Harden and Kyrie got hurt; no problems, still killing it on offence.

Durant played well in that series, but it's a myth that the Nets killed Bucks with their offense. They only posted 107.9 ORtg (-3.5 rORtg). Again, this is not something I'd bring up to argue KD for top 15 all-time.

The idea he is "reliant" on his playmakers is silly. Like, obviously he needs a point guard, so do most stars, but KDs offense has been fine without one too.

Both his boxscore production and his team efficiency took a huge hit in the postseason when he didn't have a quality primary ball-handler on his team. Not everyone is similar to that - Dirk for example (someone compared to KD often) played a big part of his prime without good PG and it didn't bother his production at all.

3) KDs D, while note always at the same level, certainly helps him; especially when he is being compared to guys like Kobe who couldn't contribute in the way peak Durant could.

But Kobe isn't his only competition for that spot, there are plenty of better defenders left on the table.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#83 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Aug 2, 2023 3:15 pm

I'm a little surprised Magic fell all the way to 10 (even with Garnett making the top 10 more crowded). Life has gotten in the way so I haven't had a chance to read many arguments, but I still find his offensive impact to be truly elite putting him slightly ahead of some two way all time greats. I'll go back and read the threads when I have a chance.

Magic and Bird were savant level decision makers which is why I think they're still clear cut top 10 players regardless of average at best longevity. So while my gut is to still go with Bird here, I totally get the argument for Curry who's one of my favorite players. He has a relatively full career we can now judge vs these guys. 

Then there's kobe, who i've had right outside the top 10 for a while now. Taking a look at his career again, he still has the longevity edge but not quite as significant as I remember. Those last few seasons post achilles were rocky to say the least. Going into the project I had bird/kobe/curry in that order so now I have some thinking to do. 
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#84 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Aug 2, 2023 3:24 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
It seems like they’re just scaled differently, but I guess your theory is that the numbers are just completely wrong/random and reflect nothing at all, rather than just being scaled wrong (not sure that makes sense to me, given that the leaderboard doesn’t look random and is dominated by people with great playoff on/off). I don’t really know why we’d think Curry’s AuPM/g wouldn’t likely have been higher in the playoffs, given that he had a +8.0 regular season on-off and a +17.3 playoff on-off.


We because AuPM incorporates the box-score as well, and Curry took a nosedive there.


“Nosedive” is a pretty strong word here, I think (he was still ranked 7th in playoff BPM). The on-off is so much better in the playoffs that I find it pretty difficult to believe that the box component part of the equation would be enough to make the overall AuPM/g lower. Or at least I find it difficult to believe that when we see him ranked 3rd in playoff AuPM/g and 12th in RS AuPM/g—which basically means you have to believe that the playoff numbers on the website are completely fake (as opposed to just scaled differently—which seems much more likely) to think there’s any real chance his AuPM/g went down in the playoffs.

Also, you said no player has more than 2 PS higher in AuPM. Well yeah, but Curry has missed years. Lebron in 2016 and 2017 is higher, and if my memory serves correctly, he was higher in the 2023 PS as well (numbers are messed up and can't be checked sadly).


In years they both went to the playoffs in the last decade, Curry is higher than LeBron in playoff AuPM/g in 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2023. LeBron is higher than Curry in 2016 and 2017. Steph has appeared in the playoffs 8 times in the last decade, and no one has had a higher playoff AuPM/g than him more than twice.


Yes, I know what you meant, that is why I only mentioned 16,17, and 23 however I was just pointing how him missing years, means there are less opportunities for players to be higher than him. In all the PS Steph was in, some other key guys were not in is my point.

Also, even if you want to say I am incorrect, and say that Steph rose in 23.

Steph dropping in AuPM/G every year from 14-23 during his prime except for 2 years, doesn't really disprove the idea that AuPM/G suggests Steph loses impact (which was much original point).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#85 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Aug 2, 2023 3:30 pm

One_and_Done wrote:What if I told you Durant has a higher Wowzy score. His PiMpp numbers are 0.2 higher as well, that's gotta mean something right?

If people want to argue against KD I'd prefer an argument, not a recitation of obscure numbers. This isn't a video game.

Harden has a habit of dropping off in the playoffs. KDs game is more resilient there. If it wasn't I'd be considering Harden soon, and I'm still going to consider him before long. Barkley is worthy of condideration also. Both Harden & Barkley peaked higher than the majority of nominees currently available. If Barkley had played in the 60s he'd be remembered as the GOAT no doubt.


You were the one who said you will occasionally look at RAPM numbers. I was just showing you why Kobe>KD isn't a crazy idea. You aren't going to listen to what anyone says here because you don't believe in adjusting efficiency for era, and you believe raw assists totals largely means they must be similar levels as playmakers.

It's okay to have your opinions, but I just tried my best to show you how data points you might value, think of Durant not being clear of Kobe.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#86 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 2, 2023 4:30 pm

f4p wrote:3 sub-23 PER's in the playoffs in his 2016-2019 prime? in 3 years where he averaged 28 PER in the regular season? for an offensive player for whom scoring is a big part of what he does? that's really low by historical standards of the guys we are looking at, especially when steph was getting mentioned for the top 10.


I may have missed it at some point, so this is a genuine question, but have you ever responded to my point that teams clearly gameplan in crazier ways for Steph in the playoffs? We absolutely see cartoonish defensive schemes against him in the playoffs (as well as offensive schemes laser focused on hunting Steph in order to make him tired, in the hopes that that’ll limit his offense) that are more uncommon than in the regular season. If teams focus more on limiting you, then we’d expect it to work to at least some degree in terms of lowering your box-score numbers. But that gameplanning has consequences. For example, all those traps well behind the three-point line create lots of 4-on-3 situations for the Warriors. Trying to hunt Steph in order to make him tired has the obvious effect of leaving the rest of the team less tired. I could go on. This is why the relevant question is whether his *impact* is still great, not simply what happened to his box score numbers. And all available evidence indicates that his playoff impact is massive.

Meanwhile, your team arguments (looking at championship delta) seem to also miss all the arguments pro-Steph people have been making (that Steph's teams near his peak were pretty universally better than Kobe's teams... by basically every team stat we have).


i agree, they were amazing. but i think AEnigma has posted draymond green impact stats that would indicate that some of the very things that make steph look so amazing also make draymond look arguably even better. he beats steph in on court plus/minus in the playoffs for several (all?) of their title runs, wins on/off quite a few years, is dominant, even league-leading, in some of those playoff impact metrics that say steph is great. if we are to believe these numbers, then we seemingly have to believe this was very much a two man show, and that's where we get back to the synergy, where it's hard to say if they are just so helpful to each other that we'll never know their true independent impact.


Playoff impact stats are of course noisy due to the low number of minutes played (and an even lower number of “off” minutes). And, importantly, comparing the “impact” of two players *on the same team* in a given playoff basically involves *even tinier* sample sizes, since the comparison will be primarily driven by on-off differences between the two, but the sample size of minutes they’ve played without each other in a given playoff is even smaller. For instance, 2014-2015 is one of two playoffs where Draymond’s AuPM/g is actually higher than Steph’s. But, given that Steph was higher in the box-score component of the AuPM/g formula (i.e. Backpicks BPM), him being ranked lower than Draymond is clearly on the back of the Warriors doing better in minutes with Draymond on and Steph off than they did in minutes with Steph on and Draymond off. But there were only 93 minutes with Draymond on and Steph off and 135 minutes with Steph on and Draymond off! So we’re really just talking about noise. And, with Steph finishing above Draymond in AuPM/g in 6 out of their 8 playoff runs—including all the other title runs—and by quite a lot on multiple occasions, Steph would seem ahead in a playoff sample size that’s at least a little larger. For reference on this sort of thing, by the way, in the 6 years the Spurs went to the finals, Duncan only had the highest playoff AuPM/g on the team twice (2003 and 2007), and a teammate of his was 1st on two occasions (1999 and 2005).

And, of course, ultimately we can actually get a very good indication of “their true independent impact” by stepping back and looking at an actually considerable sample size. When we do that, we see that, in the last decade in RS+Playoff games that both players played, the Warriors’ net rating with Steph on and Draymond off was 4.92 better than it was with Draymond on and Steph off. And that goes up to 6.03 if you count all games, rather than just all games both players played. While Draymond is definitely a very impactful player, Steph is clearly the more impactful player. And the arguments otherwise basically must involve muddying the waters with stuff that is based on tiny sample sizes.

I don't know man. The box stats are certainly interesting stuff, and the championship deltas are at least interesting. But basically none of this actually addresses the actual points that the pro-Steph crowd is arguing, nor does it address the concerns other people have raised with using this criteria (championships vs expected championships have a lot of potential noise and biases that we've discussed already). It's okay to have different criteria than others! But I'm not sure this actually addresses any of the arguments in favor of Steph.


okay, i've now tried to address some of these things. and one thing i've always objected to is the "steph plays way worse, the impact numbers say he was still great" thing that seems to happen with him. where his impact is somehow performance-independent and he gets a bunch of credit when basically everything else, including the warriors losing/being pushed to the brink, would say he faltered. yes, he does lots of things that aren't in the box score, but he does those things when he plays well. they aren't just offsetting thing where he ramps them up when he is faltering by traditional metrics. it can't just be:

steph put up 33/8/7 on 65 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph put up 28/6/6 on 62 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph put up 24/4/4 on 58 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph played so badly his fans said he was injured because even they think he played poorly:
impact metrics: he's amazing!

now, there are probably some dips in there for some of those, but not enough to my eye.


This seems to be your main objection to looking at Steph’s great playoff impact profile. You seem to be arguing that impact stats must be wrong about Steph because he doesn’t really dip when he doesn’t do as well. But we’ve been over that this is just objectively not true. I previously pointed out that, when his shooting dipped in the 2021-2022 regular season, it absolutely did affect his impact—with his offensive impact being rated easily the lowest of his prime that season by various metrics (this difference was muted at least somewhat overall, since that was also his best season defensively). And when his playoff performance dipped in 2015-2016, we find that he had his clearly worst playoffs in terms of impact metrics (for instance, his league ranking of 9th in playoff AuPM/g in those playoffs was easily his worst in the last decade). There’s really not any valid argument that impact metrics fail to catch when Steph doesn’t play as well, so this is very clearly not a reason to discount Steph’s incredible output in the playoffs in impact metrics.

And, leaving aside that implication, your argument really just seems come down to you saying that playoff impact metrics about Steph are not to be trusted because you think they rate Steph too highly “to [your] eye.” But that’s really not much of an argument, especially when it comes from someone who freely admits he’s a Steph Curry “hater.”
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#87 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 2, 2023 5:42 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Steph dropping in AuPM/G every year from 14-23 during his prime except for 2 years, doesn't really disprove the idea that AuPM/G suggests Steph loses impact (which was much original point).


Yeah, I get your original point, but I’m not really sure it carries much conclusive weight when the data we have on whether he rose or fell in impact in the playoffs goes both ways and looks close either way. RAPTOR has him rising in the playoffs in 4 out of 8 years. A prior version of AuPM/g evidently had him rising in 4 out of 7 years and being essentially exactly the same in the playoffs overall (despite there being a big drop in 2015-2016). In the newer version of AuPM/g, he rose in the playoffs twice (three if you look at 2012-2013) and fell six times, but leaving aside the 2015-2016 playoffs, the falls are all by small amounts (between 0.1 and 0.8). As I noted yesterday, his on-off in playoffs in the last decade is actually a slight bit higher than his regular season on-off, when looking at non-garbage-time minutes in games he actually played. The overall evidence doesn’t support some notion that his playoff impact has been substantially lower than his regular season impact. The evidence suggests that the impact has been similar (though in 2015-2016 it was definitely lower). And, of course, either way, in absolute terms the playoff impact is extremely high.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#88 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Aug 2, 2023 5:45 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
f4p wrote:3 sub-23 PER's in the playoffs in his 2016-2019 prime? in 3 years where he averaged 28 PER in the regular season? for an offensive player for whom scoring is a big part of what he does? that's really low by historical standards of the guys we are looking at, especially when steph was getting mentioned for the top 10.


I may have missed it at some point, so this is a genuine question, but have you ever responded to my point that teams clearly gameplan in crazier ways for Steph in the playoffs? We absolutely see cartoonish defensive schemes against him in the playoffs (as well as offensive schemes laser focused on hunting Steph in order to make him tired, in the hopes that that’ll limit his offense) that are more uncommon than in the regular season. If teams focus more on limiting you, then we’d expect it to work to at least some degree in terms of lowering your box-score numbers. But that gameplanning has consequences. For example, all those traps well behind the three-point line create lots of 4-on-3 situations for the Warriors. Trying to hunt Steph in order to make him tired has the obvious effect of leaving the rest of the team less tired. I could go on. This is why the relevant question is whether his *impact* is still great, not simply what happened to his box score numbers. And all available evidence indicates that his playoff impact is massive.

Meanwhile, your team arguments (looking at championship delta) seem to also miss all the arguments pro-Steph people have been making (that Steph's teams near his peak were pretty universally better than Kobe's teams... by basically every team stat we have).


i agree, they were amazing. but i think AEnigma has posted draymond green impact stats that would indicate that some of the very things that make steph look so amazing also make draymond look arguably even better. he beats steph in on court plus/minus in the playoffs for several (all?) of their title runs, wins on/off quite a few years, is dominant, even league-leading, in some of those playoff impact metrics that say steph is great. if we are to believe these numbers, then we seemingly have to believe this was very much a two man show, and that's where we get back to the synergy, where it's hard to say if they are just so helpful to each other that we'll never know their true independent impact.


Playoff impact stats are of course noisy due to the low number of minutes played (and an even lower number of “off” minutes). And, importantly, comparing the “impact” of two players *on the same team* in a given playoff basically involves *even tinier* sample sizes, since the comparison will be primarily driven by on-off differences between the two, but the sample size of minutes they’ve played without each other in a given playoff is even smaller. For instance, 2014-2015 is one of two playoffs where Draymond’s AuPM/g is actually higher than Steph’s. But, given that Steph was higher in the box-score component of the AuPM/g formula (i.e. Backpicks BPM), him being ranked lower than Draymond is clearly on the back of the Warriors doing better in minutes with Draymond on and Steph off than they did in minutes with Steph on and Draymond off. But there were only 93 minutes with Draymond on and Steph off and 135 minutes with Steph on and Draymond off! So we’re really just talking about noise. And, with Steph finishing above Draymond in AuPM/g in 6 out of their 8 playoff runs—including all the other title runs—and by quite a lot on multiple occasions, Steph would seem ahead in a playoff sample size that’s at least a little larger. For reference on this sort of thing, by the way, in the 6 years the Spurs went to the finals, Duncan only had the highest playoff AuPM/g on the team twice (2003 and 2007), and a teammate of his was 1st on two occasions (1999 and 2005).

And, of course, ultimately we can actually get a very good indication of “their true independent impact” by stepping back and looking at an actually considerable sample size. When we do that, we see that, in the last decade in RS+Playoff games that both players played, the Warriors’ net rating with Steph on and Draymond off was 4.92 better than it was with Draymond on and Steph off. And that goes up to 6.03 if you count all games, rather than just all games both players played. While Draymond is definitely a very impactful player, Steph is clearly the more impactful player. And the arguments otherwise basically must involve muddying the waters with stuff that is based on tiny sample sizes.

I don't know man. The box stats are certainly interesting stuff, and the championship deltas are at least interesting. But basically none of this actually addresses the actual points that the pro-Steph crowd is arguing, nor does it address the concerns other people have raised with using this criteria (championships vs expected championships have a lot of potential noise and biases that we've discussed already). It's okay to have different criteria than others! But I'm not sure this actually addresses any of the arguments in favor of Steph.


okay, i've now tried to address some of these things. and one thing i've always objected to is the "steph plays way worse, the impact numbers say he was still great" thing that seems to happen with him. where his impact is somehow performance-independent and he gets a bunch of credit when basically everything else, including the warriors losing/being pushed to the brink, would say he faltered. yes, he does lots of things that aren't in the box score, but he does those things when he plays well. they aren't just offsetting thing where he ramps them up when he is faltering by traditional metrics. it can't just be:

steph put up 33/8/7 on 65 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph put up 28/6/6 on 62 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph put up 24/4/4 on 58 TS%
impact metrics: he's amazing!
steph played so badly his fans said he was injured because even they think he played poorly:
impact metrics: he's amazing!

now, there are probably some dips in there for some of those, but not enough to my eye.


This seems to be your main objection to looking at Steph’s great playoff impact profile. You seem to be arguing that impact stats must be wrong about Steph because he doesn’t really dip when he doesn’t do as well. But we’ve been over that this is just objectively not true. I previously pointed out that, when his shooting dipped in the 2021-2022 regular season, it absolutely did affect his impact—with his offensive impact being rated easily the lowest of his prime that season by various metrics (this difference was muted at least somewhat overall, since that was also his best season defensively). And when his playoff performance dipped in 2015-2016, we find that he had his clearly worst playoffs in terms of impact metrics (for instance, his league ranking of 9th in playoff AuPM/g in those playoffs was easily his worst in the last decade). There’s really not any valid argument that impact metrics fail to catch when Steph doesn’t play as well, so this is very clearly not a reason to discount Steph’s incredible output in the playoffs in impact metrics.

And, leaving aside that implication, your argument really just seems come down to you saying that playoff impact metrics about Steph are not to be trusted because you think they rate Steph too highly “to [your] eye.” But that’s really not much of an argument, especially when it comes from someone who freely admits he’s a Steph Curry “hater.”


See, but the plus-minus data we do have for the first few years of the Warriors run, has Draymond's plus-minus looking better

From 2015-2020, Draymond Green is 2nd in the NBA in Playoffs PIPM
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/j9xodj/from_20152020_playoffs_the_highest_rated_players/

This is significant because PIPM is too box-score dependent, yet someone like Draymond comes out looking so good in the metric, despite so much of what he does not showing up in the box-score.

It is not just PIPM of box-hybrid models that that are high on Draymond. From 2014-2019, Draymond lead the NBA in PS RAPTOR WAR.

From 15-17, Draymond is 2nd in PS AuPM/G.

Draymond is #1 in 14-16 and 15-17 PS LEBRON, even ahead of Steph.


https://www.bball-index.com/my-playoff-lebron/

As a matter of fact, RAPTOR projections considered Draymond to be the NBA player who improved most from the RS to PS in the NBA during that time frame at a whopping 1.4 points per 100 possessions. The next most improved player was Lebron who was at 0.9 pts per 100 possessions. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

According to the olfer version of AuPM/G, which has data going back to 96-97, no player has improved more in from the RS to PS in their career than Draymond Green (up to at least the 2020 PS). As mentioned in the article, "among players with at least five qualifying runs, Green has the largest improvement in AuPM history. And this isn’t from slow-rolling the regular season either. In the seven seasons he’s played in the postseason, Green’s posted a hefty +3.5 AuPM per game in the regular season and then a whopping +4.7 in the playoffs. That’s like going from the sixth-best player in the league to the second." https://backpicks.com/page/6/

Kevin Pelton also wrote an article about how Draymond was statistically the 2nd biggest playoff riser during some specific time period, but I cannot find it :(

If you want numbers that look at the pure plus-minus side of things (and does not include anything pertaining to the box-score), I should note, Draymond looks arguably better...

Draymond is #1 in 14-18 PS RAPM, and #1 in 15-19 PS RAPM. He is also #2 in @jalengreen Career PS RAPM that goes from 1997-2021

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

If we know GSW's offense declines in the PS, but their defense makes one of the biggest improvements ever, and we know that Draymond has been the captain of those GSW defenses, and all the data we have suggests he is among the biggest improvers in performance come PS time, I will say I think Draymond sticks out more in terms so plus-minus.

Steph is the battle player, but I might argue Draymond covers up more wholes than people realize. The Warriors can afford to decline offensively because of what Draymond is able to level up to.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#89 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 2, 2023 5:49 pm

VOTE: Kobe Bryant
NOMINATE: Oscar Robertson

Curry is going to win this round regardless, so for the most part I will use this post partially for future readers to have access to some criticism and also to telegraph where I go with my votes after.

RK’s write-up is a good starting point. Talked about this before, but Curry’s nine postseasons plus 2021 is a meaningful longevity disadvantage to Kobe’s thirteen postseasons as a starter plus 2013. And for all this talk of how Curry probably could have played more on a worse team, I am a lot more skeptical his body could consistently handle a high minutes load. Missed nearly an entire season in 2012, missed the bulk of two postseason rounds in 2016 (immediate death sentence for many teams…), missed thirty games and a postseason round in 2018 (again, death sentence for many teams), missed thirteen games in 2019, missed effectively the entire 2020 season… missed nine games in 2021, and with no Klay, no depth, and a still evolving Wiggins, that time it did cost them the postseason… Missed eighteen games in 2022 but this time the team was back to being good enough to endure, and missed twenty-six games this past year but again the team was good enough to endure. On a random team, I think that overall becomes far more consequential than it generally has been on the Warriors when they had the rest of their core players.

[^ I will come back to this regarding one recently nominated player…]

I also think it helps Curry to play under one of the best coaching staffs in the league and off-ball of some of the smartest players in the league.
Heej wrote:this is going to get some Curry stans mad and I don't really care, but you also need to acknowledge that his late game execution is also on the low tier out of the top 15 guys. For whatever reason he makes a lot of bonehead plays and momentum killing TOs and jacks up shots. Stamina is the biggest issue with his particular archetype imo because they're targeted by defenses. In nearly every series you're guaranteed 1 game by Steph that's an absolute dud while he was at his apex, to more of a degree than others he's compared to.

E-Balla wrote:He wasn't a great finisher at all, just a high percentage one because he was picky with his spots and guys HAD to play his jumper first, second, and last. His decision making, vision, and passing ability was poor for a PG and his biggest reason for improvement in 2016 was that Kerr moved him to SG which is his natural position and gave PG duties to Draymond. He's weak on defense. His handles are extremely flashy but some of the sloppiest handles among PGs.

When Curry plays well I have to constantly hear about how none of those things are true, and through the playoffs I'm hearing the same. Then the Finals happens and as you can see in those clips all those weaknesses are front and center. Richard Jefferson just ripping those sloppy handles. Horrible shot selection and complaining about a missed non call (because it doesn't looks like JR touched him) while they get an easy bucket. Stupid behind the back passes for no reason to an open Klay. Horrible telegraphing of his passes and general PNR misplays. All series long similar things happen. In such a close game mistakes like that are directly losing the game for your team. Not getting back on defense because you want a ghost call, having very dumb turnovers and letting Kyrie get out in transition up against guys he's always gonna make the layup on, letting Richard Jefferson take your cookies because you wanted to get flashy instead of protecting the ball... And to him not attacking Kyrie and RJ, he didn't do that in 2015 (game 1) or 2017 either because Curry doesn't attack Gs in isolation commonly. That's not his game at all. He's not super athletic and he doesn't have the sharpest handles, why would he try to attack 2 guys with quick feet off the bounce? 6 games, 7 isolation buckets (not far off his regular season numbers, he averaged about 1 iso bucket a game in 2016), 3 on Kevin Love, 3 on Tristan Thompson, and 1 on Kyrie where Kyrie completely locked him up and he hit a good shot. He was "healthy" in 2015 and 2017 and didn't beat Kyrie or RJ in isolation once in 6 games and I'm willing to bet he didn't even try to do it often because why would he? He needs a screen to get separation unless it's a mismatch. Always had. I posted the numbers already he turned the ball over on about a quarter of his PNR possessions in the 2016 postseason. That was his biggest issue, bad decision making (I'm not willing to go possession to possession to count all his blown possessions in the 2016 playoffs to make 100% sure right now though - I did this for the isolations only because I knew I'd find either no or only a few isolation scores from Curry against anyone outside of Love and TT).

I can keep going but if you rewatch those games watching Curry more than you're watching Kyrie and LeBron (because it's hard to ignore LeBron having some of the best plays ever and Kyrie giving him a performance most dream their #2 could have) you'd notice exactly how bad he was at times in those games. Gravity and making the defense key in on you is cool, what's better is not coughing up the ball every few minutes, playing defense, and running the offense well. Steph in [2016 Finals] game 1 had 11 points, 6 assists, 5 turnovers, 15 shots, a -1 +/- and they still blew out the Cavs.

Personally I think a player should take a hit for having great coaching and teammates if they cover for you often. I've said for years Curry benefits so much from Kerr's offensive system, his teammates, and being able to hide on D. As such I'd always took a bit off how I felt about his seasons. This last series [2019 Finals] he wasn't able to thrive off great coaching and while he stepped up offensively (easily his best offensive series IMO considering the strength of the D he played) his defense was godawful. I'd go as far to say it's easily one of the worst defensive series I've seen from someone, it seemed like every other minute Toronto hit a wide open shot because Steph left a 40+% shooter in the corner

Primarily eye-test stuff, so take it for what it is (obviously I am quoting it because of my own moderate agreement), but despite many fan assertions to the contrary, I think it is essential to keep our assessments tied to what a player is actually doing.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Bad Gatorade wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:I dont think theres anything wrong with havitn concerns about [Curry’s] ability in the playoffs. Teams attack you defensively (as in like their defensive tactics) much more aggressively in the playoffs, theyll scout for the rs but itll be more so ok so we should guard him like X, vs in the playoffs its like, ok they like running plays x y and z and they try to run x with curry to get space, they also like to do..., they have a strong p and r attack lets throw different looks, keep on guessing

Vs in the rs its

Oh curry, blitz, drop if you forget lt

Even his off ball impact is mitigated because of how much harder teams scout, sure there will be defensive miscommunications here and there but theyll know the things warriors deploy curry off ball more like those screens near the corner to draw two fefenders and get open cutters

Its worth noting, since he started being deployed this way

(Using bball ref numbers)

2015
102.2 to 116.8 during the rs for curry, whereas it went from 109.6 to 107.9

2016
105.4 to 119.6 during the rs for curry, whereas it went from 109.7 to 111.6 in the postseason for curry

2017
104.7 to 121.1
99.8 to 126.0

2018
108 to 122.7
111.6 to 116.2

2019
110 to 120.8
108.5 to 117.5

BUT, that trend where currys is way higher than everyone else's on his team doesnt hold true in the playoffs where durant has a higher one overall 2/3 years (although 2019 is obv odd, but at the very least in the rs it isnt even close and the ps its pretty arguable).

Is this a definitive argument? Obviously not, the stat used is raw net rtg so clearly its gonna have caveats

Otoh, given the nature of playoff defenses i think its perfectly fair to say its a valid concern that curry might struggle more versus the types of defenses teams throw in the playoffs more, typically the ones gokd at adjusting. Not even from his mumbers but just an impact standpoint, i wouldnt be suprised if the crazy curry and dray p and r wasnt as effective pre ddurant, or if the off ball breakdowns, which are gonna still occur cuz curry is curry, will decrease.

Also on that the "what the warriors did was special" idea

I mean it was, but like, man, no one enjoyed that lol and like, that would be alot more valid if it was curry and a strong cast but my man no one called it team curry lol.

Like i get the idea it was built around curry, that the system was built around curry, but at the end of the day, I dont think someone is wrong neccessarily to say that durant played better in their 3 years together during he playoff, even if he wasnt neccessarily more important, and the usual statistical arguments justifying curry dont really work over that sample, theres reason to believe currys impact as a whole is mitigated in the playoffs beyond his lower box score numbers, such as his off ball impact being lessened since at its core its about causing breakdowns which are gonna occur less with greater scouting and attention to detail, and less effective ball screening actuon which is just a given.

More so than that when you think about the biggest series in those runs, the 17 cavs vs 17 warriors, and the 18 rockets vs 18 warriors, while there are arguments for both is really arguably durant was better in both even given currys off ball impact vs that cavs team (not really against the rockets team with how the rockets defended).

Also like i get its currys offense they were built around but like, that would imply they needed curry to win but man that team was sk utterly and absurdly stacked that you could replace curry with a good amount of people and im still pretty sure theyd win 2/3.

Idk lol like i get praising curry and i think its fine for him to be here or to have been voted for before but man, curry was special in the way that he was the main part of the most stupidly talented team ever, like sure he was the guy they built around but like, its not as if you replace curry with a, lets say a lillard and the offense would crumble and the adjustments they decide to make would not make them the best team ever still, like when you can genuinly make an argument a team is a contender without its best player i think it becomes much more about how ridiculous that team is vs any individual whoever it may be.

The net rtg stuff isnt really a him v durant thing cuz i do think it was his team but i think theres evidence that some of currys goat like RS impact goes away in the playoffs based on how it is. Idm saying curry was still the most important guy in fact id prolly agree for most series, but the fact that the huge gap between the two decreased every run to the point where it was basically the same, and that currys playoff impact went down 2015 and 2016 off a cursory look vs his top tier refular season impacy

I def think 2017 cavs isnt a wash for curry even knowing currys impact was heavily understated by his box score.

Also in the net rtg, like, thatd make more sense if durants wasnt higher in every series they played in, in 2018, esp given the one curry missed was against the third rank defense in the spurs, and id think pops good at adjustments.

You cant really include 2019 which is why i said it was funky cuz its a weird yrar, obv curry played both the blazers d and the raptors d, kd is ahead that year but either way its an odd one

But the thing is theres a pretty onvious gap between the two in the rs and it basically is even in the postseason.
Its not about whose team it is and more so about the idea that currys impact might not be as reliable in the playoffs, at least on a non absurdly stacked team

But again this is me being like, oh i can see why someone would think currys impact is less in the playoffs so i see why someone wouldnt vot him in.

Without participating in the project (or writing anything on here in a very long time), I actually tried to take a look at this.

My (incredibly rough) methodology involves looking at on court offensive ratings in both the regular season and the playoffs (per minute played) for Curry, and then weighting this vs the expectation set by Curry's opponents.

From 2015-2019 -

* Curry played 3442 minutes in the playoffs, and obviously, far more than this in the regular season.
* The On-court ORTG for the Warriors with Curry during the playoffs was 115.86 vs a 107.66 average defence (+8.2).
* In the regular season, this number was 119.99 vs a 108.40 average defence.
* Opposing team defences being only 0.74 PP100 tighter than the regular season expectation is actually quite low.

The obvious major caveat to this methodology is the presence of injuries/lineup changes, but without doing something as drastic as, say, assigning individual regular season player value (e.g. DRAPM) vs playoff minutes in every playoff series, this is probably close to as good as we'll get. And of course, we could nitpick certain things (e.g. Durant not playing the entirety of the 2019 playoffs) but then this ignores things such as Durant also missing regular season time in 2017/2018, and other opposing players missing time vs the Warriors. So, for the sake of simplicity, I'll call this even.

I haven't calculated this on a wider scale yet, but a -3.39 drop seems quite large, and also somewhat jibes with the fact that Curry has one of the larger relative TS% drops on record (from memory, a game-weighted glance took Curry from approximately +10.1 TS% to +7.3 TS% relative to the opponent) and in general, has fewer assists and points/slightly more turnovers.

So, whilst Curry still has tremendous value in the playoffs, he does appear somewhat more human in a playoff context, and the relative team efficiency follows. In fact, the opposing player for the #23 slot (CP3) actually had a 5 year span (2013-2017) underneath this methodology with a relative playoff on court ORTG of +8.73 (i.e. higher than the Warriors), albeit in clearly fewer games.

There have also been criticisms levelled at Curry for not having tremendous on court playoff ORTGs without Durant, and it kind of holds true - in 2015, his playoff ORTGs in each series were +7.9 (against a fairly poor Pelicans defence), -0.4, +3.6, +1.1, in 2016 he had +3.8 and +4.2 in his final two series (i.e. the ones where he played every game), and he had +9.3 (against a league average defence that lost Jusuf Nurkic right before the playoffs) and +3.0. Note that in 2015, the Warriors were also the #2 ranked offence in the league, and #1 in 2016. Outside of 2017, which was a simply stunning playoff run, there is a fairly strong correlation between the relative ORTG with Curry on court in the playoffs and the opponent's relative DRTG - 0.79 across 13 series. In other words, outside of 2017, the Warriors obliterated weaker defensive teams, but looked far more mortal than their regular season expectation against the stronger defensive teams with Curry on the court. Aside from 2017, that entire 5 year stretch follows the same general trend, i.e. Warriors feasting on "easier" opponents and then ranging from above average to good against the stronger opponents (I'm talking between +1 and +5 relative ORTG).

Without actually undertaking such a detailed analysis for every star player we're considering, there definitely appears to be a notable amount of evidence that Curry is clearly more human in the playoffs, and even more so against the toughest defences. And this doesn't mean that he's a playoff scrub at all - he's still fantastic, but it does mean that the individuals that aren't voting Curry in at this point, or second guessing his impact based on the playoffs... just might be onto something. The degree as to which somebody weights the playoffs vs the regular season, or how much they feel that the Curry drop-off is real, is up to them.

This is really just food for thought though, because Curry's playoffs always seem to become a talking point.

Just from memory, other stars have evidence that points to higher playoff resilience - for example, Wade's relative TS% reached +6 in his healthy playoff years from 2005-2011 (i.e. ignoring 2007) after being at +3-3.5% in the regular season, Nash/Magic had stupendous postseason offences, Paul has a clear scoring uptick (IIRC, he's at something like +6 TS% on higher volume from 2008-2017 himself), Kobe's got some great offences and increases his TS% from 2008-2010, etc.

FWIW,
I think Curry is an amazing player... but the arguments for Curry (grandiose impact, changing the game, team culture) are strong, and the arguments against Curry (durability, worse in playoffs, longevity) have merit too. Do we have to be so dismissive of the other school of thought and plummet into an online pool of rage?

i appreciate the effort but i also feel the 2015 and 2016 postseasons are more indicitive. That better defenses tend to do better vs the warriors is a bit in line with the idea that

Since currys impact is mostly derived from
Pick and roll action
Off ball movement to create breakdowns defensively
Set plays to get open shots

And defenses are more creative targetting the pick and roll, vs mostly autopilot in the RS, and analyze more plays and off ball movement to avoid breakdowns over a series. A lot of it is coaching for sure, but Curry doesn’t really go into iso against good or elite defenders that much relative to some other guys. His isos are mostly switches or misdirection/change of pace type quick hitters where he lulls a defender to sleep because they’re expecting a different action and he pulls up or just drives quickly. There’s nothing wrong with that, but if we’re talking about “okay let’s go to work” I wouldn’t have Curry at the top

My main point wasnt that currry wasnt their most important offensive player or anything, but that it shifts a bit to durant. Whereas in the RS its 70-30 curry durant, because of the nature of the playoffs its probably more 60-40, maybe even favoring durant in some matchups

Will submit a more specific Kobe compilation post in a moment.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#90 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 2, 2023 5:50 pm

On the Kobe side of it…
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Theres two components to scoring value:

Effeciency of shots you take vs an average guy in that role

The amount of high quality oppertunities your skillset creates

If youre creating transition oppertunities at a higher value vs the average guy that huves value, if your not doing that and your taking up transition oppertunities for a more effecient guy, and not being that effecient youre losing value. Make sense?

Currys skillset obviously does create high quality oppertunities that arent gonna be there for other players and hes better than the average guy in his position, but comparing their raw TS ignores the intricacies of how they score. Lemme put it this way, if currys TS was the same as a guy like kobe or wades, thatd be pretty bad considering a large part of how he gets his points should be higher quality oppertunities. Kobes shot profile was partially inneffective because of the fact he operated less in transition than other wing stars of his era. Iirc his actual effeciency in the halfcourt from 08-10 was a good deal higher than both wade and brons in that span. The fact that la were simultaneously a top transition team implies that kobe was deferring transition oppertunites rather thab missing out on then

shot profiles isnt the same as on ball role, im regetting my synergy subscription so i dont have access to it atm, but from what i remember small guards like curry/nash/paul are assisted less than wings are because of the nature of how they get their offense inside the arc off more pick and roll play compared to the other three, in the sense that isolation/post play is gonna more offen be cateogrized as assisted because if you catch, hold for a sexond and turn and rise over its an "assisted shot" That doesnt necessarily mean theyre more or less effecient, their style of play gravitates more towards a certain play type.

If we went by how many of their points were "functionally" assistedid be prettu suprised if a higher percentage of kobe/wade's points were assisted over the other currys.

I would agree that curry had the same or more of an on ball role than both but i dont neccessarily think he created more shots for himself if that makes sense

While i get this sounds cop out ish, this looks doubly true when looking at the assist rates of guys like nash and paul being extremely low as well, both being assisted 10% of their inaide the arc possessions.

Ex, im fairly sure wings like kobe bron and wade would be used more as iso bailout options, which would count as an assist but functionally not really be one.

But when comparing curry and other guys effeciencies, you have to keep in mind hes gonna have a good amount of possessions as that coming off of screens or spot up three type. Theres a to of value in having the ability for the offense to get these oppwrtunities but its not fair to compare this to guys that arent playing like that. Its like the idea of transition vs halfcourt but more granular, granted there are other things coming into play like wings being able to have more cutting players and curry not being able to do that, i dont quite think that evens it out.

Its not really as much so as currys TS is a lie or anything, its more so that alot of others are probably more effecient then their TS would indicate given their role in the offense as more bailout or mid shotclock iso when action is done type.

There’s a bit of an idea that Kobes was an ineffecient chucker at times (exaggeration, kind of?). While I agree the fact that kobes like the goat difficult shot maker means he hurt his effeciency by taking shots too hard often, from what I remember relative to his peers his iso scoring and post scoring efficiencies are about how Durant compares to guys today and clearly better than Kawhi’s, although I’d have to check again. Of course, on triple the volume as well, so I think it’s overstated that Kobe wasn’t extremely effecient. He made it harder on himself at times and at times he made shots he shouldn’t have in situations that weren’t his fault, that’s not all negative.

my main point is more so that wings that were similar in effeciency to Kobe didn’t really have nearly the same shot profile, which kind of goes both ways.

Of course, Kobe did make it more difficult on himself, but at the same time he took a higher portion of his teams difficult shots when stuff stagnated, which is mainly where I’m coming from. Guys that had similar effeciency to Kobe like melo and pierce and Ray when I looked into it almost always got a much larger portion of their offense from non 1v1 basketball. I think it’s more in the role he was in it was insane, even if the role itself wasn’t the most effective not just because of era but his shot selection as well. It’s a give and take when evaluating him for me in that regard

Kobe wasn’t like Curry or anything effeciency wise of course but he was better than some seem to believe. I don’t think Kobe couldn’t operate in a similar way in the context of an offense today, his off ball game was tremendous. Kobe was actually pretty decent spotting up throughout his offensive prime from three:

2006) 36.3%
2007) 28.3%
2008) 43.1%
2009) 41.1%
2010) 38.8%

here’s Kobe synergy profile in 08 and 09, and his percentile rank per synergy (I don’t think it was realistic for him to be highly effecient in 06 or 07):

2008
Isolation 91st percentile
Pick and roll BH 92nd percentile
Transition 82nd percentile
Spot up 84th percentile
Post up 96th percentile
Off screen 91st percentile
Cuts 94th percentile
Handoffs 85th percentile
Putbacks 82nd percentile

2009
Isolation 89th percentile
Post up 95th percentile
P and R BH 88th percentile
Transition 76th percentile
Spot up 86th percentile
Misc 96th percentile
Cut 91st percentile
Handoffs 85th percentile
Putbacks 86th percentile

For players with 1000+ plays (synergy on a bad phone is annoying), in terms of halfcourt ppp

In 2008 he was 14th out of 58 guys

In 2009 he was 7th out of 63 guys

Worth noting some guys above him are play finishers like guys like amare and stuff. His 08 mark is great, but his 09 mark is excellent. For reference, Dirk is 7th in 2008 and 9th in 2009. Above cp3/Wade/lebron as well both years (might be wrong about Wade in 08 but I’m not gonna relook it up lol)

His synergy profile makes him look like a transcendent level 1v1 scorer (seriously, those marks are insane)

Durant in 2022 for reference (his 2023 one is weird cuz his misc effeciency is super high, but his iso and post scoring is kinda tame)

Isolation 89th percentile
Pick and roll BH 89th percentile
Transition 69th percentile
Spot up 78th percentile
Off screen 79th percentile
Post up 85th percentile
Handoffs 78th percentile
Misc 93rd percentile
Cuts 45th percentile

Durants probably a better pure 1v1 scorer than Kobe (to be clear I put Durant above anyone) and in terms of versatility to score he’s second to none. I do think kobes off ball stuff wouldn’t look quite as amazing although he was great on good looks of course

But Kobe was a transcendent one on one scorer and extremely versatile scorer, it was an era where one on one scoring wasn’t as effecient, but it’s hard to blame Kobe when he was incredible effecient as a pick and roll ball handler on high volume as well (it’s sorted by volume). He was effecient enough to make it very effective this years in any case.

I think if literally your only criteria is in era impact I can see being lower on Kobe than some might expect.

Situationally, I think there are two factors in general when ranking guys

1. How a situation affects their impact

2. How a situation affects their chances of winning

I think kobes situations weren’t great for his impact, whether it be the era he was in, the fact that naturally playing with arguably the best (prime) offensive scoring center ever in Shaq, or the way he was deployed.

I do think his situations were good for winning, and that he would be more impactful in other situations, whether it be if he never played with Shaq, if he was deployed differently, or in a different era where the fact that he was an absolute outlier in his combination of 1v1 scoring effeciency + volume in his absolute prime.

For me it evens out.

Kobes in era impact wasn’t as high as some other guys in the range where I have him, which I do think has to with factors outside of his control. I also don’t think he would be unable to alter his game to become moderately more pick and roll based (not neccessarily pick and roll slashing) while still being a mainly iso and post up scorer, given his ability to do so in 2013 with decent offensive results despite the issues surrounding the team at the time, and he himself having declined a good amount. The main thing for me is I also think that his abilities translate fantastically to every other era so far in an absolute sense, whether it’s a skill gap thing or a rule thing.

I kinda went over some of the other stuff earlier, the halfcourt effeciency stuff etc etc, but just to clarify my original point:

There are eras where kobes archetype of a player would have been more impactful, or teams where he would have had more impact whether it be by being deployed more like the more successful guards of that era with him leaning to his pick and roll game a bit more while maintaining and using his ability as a transcendent 1 on 1 scorer. We saw him revatilize himself in 2013 doing this a bit more despite being a shell of his former stuff. Illegal D, long twos seemingly being more effecient pre 2000, etc etc etc, or the spacing and mismatch iso style some play today. Or maybe have a team that builds their offense through him rather than with him, and then his impact skyrockets, etc etc etc. also would assume his raw impact would be higher if he wasnt playing with the most dominant post wilt center ever, since he’s actively taking away possessions from him, etc etc. the era Kobe was in was probably the worst possible one for primarily 1v1 wing basketball, at least in an absolute sense.

His post scoring iirc from 08-10 was the best 3 year stretch for a perimeter player we have on record when it comes to a combination of effeciency and volume.

Otoh he was on some good situations that led to him getting rings and building a huge legacy which is why he’s pretty much a top ten lock for most people. I feel alotnof people tend to believe that realgm opinion is anywhere near public opinion. It doesn’t matter either way of course, you should form opinions based on your own beliefs etc etc,but in a realistic sense more people put kobe top 3-5 than out of the top 15. I don’t have him there but I do think people forget that a lot of realgm tends to rate people by cumulative in era impact sometimes and that’s not how most people rate guys. It’s valid but it’s not like an objectively right way, it’s subjective.

ad he played in an offense like that in the sense the offense would be more dependent on him. I do think he’s shown an ability to deliver in that type of offense, and even 2013 Kobe who was far declined had one of his best offensive years in a more ball screen heavy role despite him not doing nearly as good at it as you’d expect prime Kobe to do.

I think there were more factors than just that, for example that 01-05 was probably the worst era in an absolute sense for iso scoring wings specifically, and that he played with one of the most dominant half court scoring forces of all time in Shaq meant his impact was always going to be muted since he’s taking away from the best option. Of course, the beef that they both were at fault for, etc etc.

In any case I do think his impact could have been higher even in era given those situations, even if it was of course was great. On the other hand, I do think his situations were generally good and three chips with Shaq and two with a good Lakers cast in 08-10 meant he could still get 5 chips, so as I’ve said before I think it evens out

Now the main thing that hurts his effeciency specifically is the fact that isolation basketball was kind of the least effecient play style during 1998-2016, and we’ve kind of seen how that’s not so much the case for offenses that are designed around maximizing that skillset post three point revolution, while it would seem like a similar thing was the case pre illegal D as well. Kobe was good enough at this that it still led to an extremely effective halfcourt offense, but it would still hurt him. But for me, the argument essentially goes -

- Kobe in an absolute sense would have been more impactful in other eras vs his peers

- kobes in era impact was still fantastic, and of course he was 5 titles, and was a key contributor in all of them, esp 01/09/10.

Evaluating Kobe on offense

- he’s a great if at times unwilling passer, but he became better at this over his 24 prime (08-10). He’s shown great ability to pass out of pick and roll, and overall he’s probably a very good passer with great but not incredible vision at his peak if you think it’s 2008 or 2009. If you think it’s 06 or 07 it’s more him being a stupid scorer

- while his synergy profile paints a picture of a incredibly versatile halfcourt scorer without any weakness (while still being great in transition of course), diving deeper, while he was extremely effective in the pick and roll or off ball etc etc, it’s clear that his 1 on 1 game stands out

- there’s a tendency to believe that Kobe wasn’t that effecient of an 1 on 1 player, and he’s more decent effeciency wise but high volume. That’s not really the case during his best years though.

- his isolation play stats are less impressive than his post up stats, but are still quite great. Among high iso players, here are his rankings from 06-09, >200 isolations

05) 2nd/31
06) 12th/45
07) 1st/37
08) 4th/36
09) 12th/45
10) 12th/41
11) 5th/39
12) 18th/41 (>130, lockout)
13) 8th/27

For reference, here is KDs ranking over a similar criteria (isos are down a bit so made it >100)

16) 6th/51
17) 7th/46
18) 6th/36
19) 3rd/38
21) 2nd/42 (did >100 since he didn’t qualify)
22) 4th/45

Kawhis also for reference

16) 7/51
17) 21/46
19) 5/38
20) 6/51
21) 27/42

Of course, when it comes to synergy stuff you’re generally gonna have guys above you.

Kawhis percentiles are quite good to be clear, so this isn’t a knock on him at all he’s generally 70th percentile ish on those “bad” years.

Of course, there’s a huge gap in volume: Kobe averaged more isolations over those 4 years than double durant and Kawhi combined. Of course, this wasn’t through an offense that emphasizes high leverage isos like the harden rockets for example either, a lot of them we’re triangle actions not creating much at times. Of course, I think his 06 mark considering his absurd volume and how much he hated his teammates (lol) is insane as well
. His 09 mark a tad low but still very elite.

In any case, the raw rankings in stuff like this undersell guys a bit, but Kobe was a transcendent isolation player with a combination of elite effeciency and ridiculous volume. This isn’t taking to account how hard teams tried to stop him either.

To be clear, yes isolation wasn’t a very effecient play from 2000-2016 for various reasons, but it was effecient in regards to when Kobe used it: his halfcourt scoring effeciency in terms of ppp was elite iirc, I had it earlier this thread

So as an isolation player - fantastic.

To be clear, even with the huge volume edge I still take Durant in this regard, although kobes playoff resiliency in that regard is quite good too so maybe then I take him there. Durants my #1 scorer ever in the RS in terms of his ability to do so I think though, so that doesn’t say much. I’m a lot higher on Durant than most. Though

But Kobe does look like a pretty damn good isolation player.

To be very clear these rankings heavily undersell his ability, because to conclude he was a 70-80th percentile guy in that regard isn’t really the right conclusion.

Booker and Tatum ranked 36th and 38th out of 42 in 2021 and 27th and 28th out of 46 in 2022 (>120). They were above 50th percentile in 2022 and just under in 2021. When you do stuff like this you always get guys that are randomly high or a few suprise names over who you’d expect at times

While one could make an argument that Kobe not being elite from three might hurt him if he played a similar today, it should be noted that for all his other flaws as a player derozans actually been the best at this for awhile lol, so I think it’s a non issue.

So in terms of isolation scoring, he was incredibly effective. His effeciency was genuinely fantastic in the context of synergy data, as you can see by him comparing very favorably to a guy like Kawhi and somewhat holding his own against a guy like KD in raw effeciency.

So the isolation data is impressive. Of course, keep in mind that a typical Kobe isolation was far more like a Kawhi isolation than a harden one or even most Kd ones. Most these isolation opportunities were made by necessity rather than by design like today.

How that gauges today or back then I’m not sure, but we have players complaining about how 1v1 basketball died out a bit in the 2000s as illegal d rules got taken away. Beyond the rule changes being lightened in 06 we do see a trend towards, as you said it, more effecient pick and roll basketball, less long twos, etc etc.

I was curious to see vs the other high scoring wings that were effecient inside the arc, and it seems like Kobe just ended up having a much larger majority of his possessions come from on ball halfcourt scoring than his contemporaries.

Just off a look through in 08 it seems like it comes from either them having more off ball possessions or running more pick and roll.

There’s a middle ground between Kobe had okay effeciency because he took stupid shots and Kobe had great effeciency taking all the teams hard shots.

The idea of value add comes from opportunity cost. On one hand, it is valid that at times esp 06 and 07 Kobe was a ball hog and took some dumb shots

At the same time, he was still effecient overall, his half court offense overall in ppp was better than Wade and brons every year from 06-09 for example, and 09 specifically he’s even above Dirk.

Beyond that, I don’t think kobes limitations are why he played the way he did, he was incredibly effecient and intelligent off ball and his pick and roll offense was genuinely great as well, even if not quite as good as the Wade/bron/nash of that time in that regard

There’s I think a middle ground there, the idea of opportunity cost and all of that. Kobe took harder shots both because he needed to and because his role in the offense in general meant he had to.

Otherwise, his offensive impact during his offensive apex doesn’t make sense, it was obviously incredibly high and probably could be argued higher than some signals based off of pretty strong evidence of noise.

when judging kobes effeciency against his peers, high scoring wings, it’s important to note that the vast majority of the guys that were decently effecient happened to have similar levels of inside the arc effeciency as Kobe had a much higher percentage of their scoring come from opportunities the offense created for them.

Of course it could be argued (correctly) that Kobe probably called isos a bit more than he should have. But this was more trying to show that a lot of the high scoring wings that were effecient had a large portion of their offense created for them. Wade/bron/09Roy are the only real exceptions, although their halfcourt offense was less effecient and they did play more pick and roll.

Also, effeciency for scoring wings is clearly higher all around in the 90s. The reason I think he would be better in older eras is because isolation play and post play were two areas that he was clearly best at, and those skills were more important and effective in the era he didn’t play in, whereas 60s is just skill diff.

I agree that it’s not a one to one thing with his lack of absurd slashing ability, at the same time I do think his ability as a post scoring wing translates perfectly, and his iso ability I think would still mean he would be very effecient if those skills were the best things to do rather than being a pretty ineffecient style of play, even with his shot selection. I don’t think he would be in position to take some of the shots he shouldn’t have taken as much either although he would still take plenty of them

Summarized, I think Kobe was fairly effecient in a vacuum, but as a extreme high iso/post player he was extremely effecient regardless of his questionable shot selection at times within that role.

I think that that play style wasn’t super great relative to other halfcourt roles (namely p and r ball handlers). Whereas if you go back it is a much more effecient and viable one. Esp the emphasis on wing post play would be huge with his absurd ability in that regard.

Of course, Kobe was incredibly impactful in his own time so a decent boost does a lot.

Now at the same time, kobes iso game wasn’t primarily based on slashing, while he was a fantastic slasher especially when the paint wasn’t packed or defenses didnt stunt on drives, a lot it was difficult shotmaking (off these stunts often of course). I do think it is underestimated how good he was at it though at times.

I do think Kobe is more about getting to his spots, but I also think we’d see much more of a slashing Kobe and him being more effective at getting to his spots and being effecient in those spots in other eras where defense doesn’t load up as much.

In spite of that too, his actual inside the arc field goal percentage off of isolations was similar to KD and Wade in similar situations in terms of era, with much more volume and almost surely far more defensive resistance on average. It compares favorable to pre 2013 bron as well. I feel this is probably suprising for some, who’d expect Kobe makes up he ppp gap with his isolation three point shooting or free throw effeciency more than anything else, but even his raw inside the arc scoring effeciency is on their level as well

Got a bit off track there. Overall, I would say in terms of since we’ve had synergy, outside of situations where these situations were specifically leveraged, prime Kobe is probably the best isolation player in terms of the combination of elite isolation effeciency and ridiculous volume and defensive attention. This of course would be in line to how he’s viewed by other players as well, and intuitively makes sense

It’s hard to evaluate him versus guys in generations because the quality of data we have simply isnt as high since we don’t have synergy data.

I would argue Durant even with a fourth of his volume is a better isolation scorer, but Durants kind of #1 for me in the RS in that regard anyway.

It’s hard to gauge because nowadays it’s much more the top end of isolation scoring is higher rather than it being higher universally, and I’d assume it was a similar trend during illegal D times even if maybe it wasn’t nearly as absurd as now. We see that players were complaining about this as well.

So generational isolation scorer and quite great in the halfcourt effeciency on its own.

Of course, post scoring was a bit more emphasized for wings the more you go back. This one is a lot more straight forward, Kobe averaged around 200 possessions from 06-09 (300 in 09 and 450 in 10)

Kobe as a post scorer averaged more ppp than Dirk, duncan, Yao (hehe) from 07-09. KG beat him out in 07, but not the other two years.

Using a same criteria to get 50 ish players, >150 pos

06. 20th/60
07. 5th/51
08. 3rd/44
09. 3rd/46
10. 7th/48

I mean especially with volume that’s as much as some centers today (not an exaggeration either, 450 is more than Jokic the last 2 years lmao). 200 is about 12th in the nba the past few years

Kobe is just kind of ridiculous as a post scoring wing with his combination of effeciency and volume at that size, especially taking into account how much teams defend him. In this regard he does come out with better effeciency than KD or Kawhi I think, who both are fantastic of course at this (KD does have a few insane years though).

All of his other scoring stuff are usually 90th percentile per synergy, so nba.com I think that’s 80-90 but I’m not sure.

Even if you look at a guy like demar, his effeciency in iso and post scoring specifically are pretty insane esp over the last few years, so I don’t see why Kobe can’t theoretically have great effeciency in that regard too.

I’ll drop kobes His raw percentage in terms of post ups Too

06) 43.2%
07) 50.7%
08) 49.7%
09) 48.7%
10) 49.2%
11) 48.6%
12) 41.4%
13) 55.3%

So quite effective of course.

As for free throw rate, kobes was higher than Jordan’s right? Ans it was higher on average in the 90s too. I don’t view it as a huge issue personally. Feel both guys probably had a situation where refs let people whack them a tad too much too.

Overall, when it comes to someone’s effeciency, we can basically divide it into 3 things

Their on ball effeciency
Their off ball effeciency
Their transition effeciency

And then beyond that how much they do of each.

I do think kobes on ball effeciency goes up if you transfer backwards

Like I said, in the 2001-2005 time period isolation basketball and kind of non big post basketball were the least effecient style of one man dominated offense, and even in 06-16 you had a similar issue in that stuff vs something like pick and roll offenses.

Considering Kobe already shot 49-50% inside the arc from 06-10, and we saw that Kobe running a bit more offense that aligns with what teams did as much in 2013 increases his effeciency when he ran more p and r with better spacing than the triangle led to him shooting 51.0% inside the arc with, mostly from getting closer to the rim despite his athletic decline by then

I don’t think there’s much of an issue with me saying his on ball abilities improve in a relative sense during a time where those two skills he excelled at in a historic sense (post scoring and isolation scoring) because the best reliable on ball option rather than a poor one relative to other styles of offense.

His off ball abilities translate well and I don’t really do it justice here, he was very effective off ball but just did most of his scoring on it. Ditto with transition scoring, although he did score in transition a bunch and did it very efficiently even with the occasional dumb long twos transition pullup here and there.

So I think the on ball aspect of his game improves tremendously, the off ball aspect and transition aspect stay about the same but since he was great at those things those help him as well. While his slashing ability not being his main iso thing means his isolation game won’t translate exactly relatively (although I think this is a bit overstated), his post game absolutely will imo.

Transition helps him get some more easier buckets especially since he was effective, off ball roughly the same if he’s in the same offense but he was great at that as well.

All things considered, the only scoring wings that were more effecient than Kobe concurrently in terms of inside the arc scoring effeciency (since threes weren’t that important back then anyway) during that 08-10 period where he had a respectable roster he didn’t try to shoot over himself every night, outside of bron/Wade/and one year of Brandon Roy, got more than half of their offense off ball as well. Furthermore, bron and Wade both are some of the best transition players of all time and operated in pick and roll. The only time we see Kobe play in a play style more similar to that, in terms of a on ball halfcourt style that was more similar to what was more effective during that time (p and r), he shot 51% inside the arc, behind only arguably peak bron, Wade playing off of peak bron, and Durant, in terms of the top 20 scoring wings that year, all while still getting more of his shots in halfcourt on ball offense than all three of them.

Because of that, I do think that the fact that instead of the best/main/optimal on ball half court wing play style coinciding with the aspect of his offense that is elite and fantastic but not on the level of the other offensive juggernaut wings of the time (pick and roll based), but instead it would now correspond with the two areas where he has a unmatched historic combination of volume + effeciency outside of offenses designed to enhance that very ability. (wing post scoring, wing isolation). For me, this means that his relative offensive impact goes up a lot, given he was elite in other aspects as well that were important

What he would shoot exactly I’m not sure. Among high scoring wings without any context he was usually 4-5 in offensive inside the arc effeciency from 08-10 when he wasn’t trying to shoot out of a horrendous supporting cast. In 1991-93 Jordan was 4th, 3rd, 4th, and 3rd in inside the arc effeciency among scoring wings but the guys that ranked above him almost certainly did much of their damage off ball in comparison… although that’s somewhat similar to Kobe’s situation, where outside of Brandon Roy one year, only Wade and bron were higher for reasons mentioned above without getting >50% of their offense off ball + they are also absolutely historic transition players.

So what we have here is a mega versatile scorer that’s intelligent and effective off ball. His ability as a wing to score in isolation throughout his offensive apex is generational and arguably the best combination of volume + effeciency we have on record since isolations have been tracked, outside of offenses which are designed to create high leverage offensive situations. (I do think Durants raw effeciency wins out). Finally, despite being generational in his isolation/face up 1 on 1 offense, his post game was arguably even more phenomenal, with a level of consistent effeciency that was higher than a guy who was arguably one of the most effecient post players ever at the time in Dirk for 3 years straight, on volume comparable to bigs today let alone wings.

That translates back tremendously well I think. When you think of the impact he had as a primarily 1v1 player (with very good if not always willing passing) I think it makes sense to argue that in an absolute sense playing in eras where that skill goes from being the least effecient type of offense to a main type of offense would drastically boost his impact.

Kobe played an ineffecient style (isolation and 1v1 basketball) in an ineffecient way (kooobeeeee) so efficiently that it was effecient overall, essentially. Push him back and it’s no longer an ineffecient style and he probably gets saved from himself a bit as well

So when I throw him forward, I see guys who are somewhat similar in terms of being great 1v1 but having alotnof overall offensive versatility and more so utilizing the pick and roll to get into good situations 1v1 with switch mismatch basketball, or being part of an offense with off ball movement and cutting and still running pick and roll and making good reads or just getting situations with isolations and help beaters. Post help beaters esp are pretty simple nowadays. Of course you could reference certain high impact offensive guys who arguably don’t do a single thing on the court offensively better than Kobe did

A guy like Booker for example in 2022, wasn’t better relatively speaking than Kobe in any synergy play type, except miscallenous which doesn’t really count lol

Of course, one could argue Kobe would not want to run pick and roll that much, but he did so in 2013, I think he had more pick and roll possessions than Booker did including passes overall. (He did, 960 vs 876).

Per synergy, Kobe was in the 92nd percentile including passes (90th without). 11th/73 for pick and roll possessions including passes, >350 possessions, right above Curry lol (2013 of course).

Why I’m mentioning Booker is that he’s someone that someone I kind of know has mentioned is in a role that Kobe would be interesting in (obviously not exactly, Kobe would score more and do more on ball ofc)

I feel saying super saiyan Kawhi on offense makes me feel stupid because Kawhi a beast even though it might be valid, but no one is gonna say he’s not a super saiyan Booker in that regard.

Well Booker is third in offensive rapm for the past 3 years, his offensive net rtg is usually quite great, +8-12 ish as a range, and we have now seen a Suns team that was a top 3 offense when he was healthy (not on court rtg), and has been a bottom 10 one since he got hurt. A guy like Tatum is also high up there in offensive rapm, and hell kawhis first lmao.

Luck adjustments make their rankings a bit less generous
(Tatum 5, Kawhi 7, booker 10) although Idk if that is good for multi year samples

The archetype of great versatile wing scorer with great playmaking is absolutely great on offense, we see these guys having incredible impact.

When we look at how they play, see their synergy profiles, etc etc etc, I don’t think it calls for a re evaluation of how good they are, I think it calls for the fact that this archetype is better now relative to how it was in the 2000s.

Especially since he’s going to be a solid situational wing stopper, I would certainly pick him above some guys that had higher in era impact in an absolute sense.

Moving backwards, similar situation where Kobe’s transcendent strengths translate far better, whereas his other strengths such as scoring versatility remain as effective if not even more effective. I’ll admit ignorance to the 70s, but then bye 60s I think it’s just a huge gap between him and 1960s guards that’s not really fair at all. I do think in an absolute sense he translates fantastically going back or forward, for the reasons I said above. 1 on 1 play was more effective back then, especially if you were a good passer, Kobe’s 1 on 1 play I do think is as good as his peers say it was and I do think the data supports him being historic in that regard even with him admittedly biting off more than he could chew at times with some of them shots in 06 and 07 especially (although if someone told me he didn’t want the ball cuz he’d drop it I’d take that shot too lol), he still looks incredible with his isolation effeciency let alone his volume, and forget about his post offense. Beyond that, the sheer versatility of his scoring repertoire and everything makes me view him as a guy that had tier 1.5 offensive impact during his time while being a tier 1 offensive player that could have that level of impact in other eras. I do agree that you usually need a transcendent talent to be a tier 1 guy but his talent happened to coincide with it not being a good time for that to be his talent. Beyond that, the rest of his offensive game was incredible too.

I’d be curious to see if someone ever breaks down his playoff defense from 08-10, I feel it would be good during important moments, but that’s mainly what drops his peak lower for me, I view him as a pretty good but not incredible wing defender, although he had the ability to lock up and take a matchup or be part of a great defense if that’s what a particular series or matchup demanded more focus towards IG. Beyond that it’s hard to criticize him for not doing well in the role he was in against the top 1 defense. In any case though, 08 he sucked against the Celtics, 09 was good vs the magic, and in 2010 he was solid against the Celtics, 4 very good games 3 very bad ones imo, against a defense that clamped up 2010 bron I don’t think that’s bad esp given how he plays. Not having a “that” finals series drops him a tad for me altho it makes sense and the magic one was good ofc.

I do think contextually that his prime happened to go against #1 defenses each time kind of sucks, but yeah it is something that drops those runs for me. While I think I his lack of effeciency is understandable given the teams he played, it does drop his peak a bit for me.

I was watching through them a bit, and I’d say they really didn’t give Kobe much at all though, so I understand why his effeciency was it was to an extent. Against the magic I went through g2-4 since those were the games he struggled, I think he got like, one transition layup in all three games which is kind of wild, and damn the paint was even more packed than in brons series against them I think. Of course I only saw his makes but for the most part his shot selection didn’t stand out outside of some questionable transition shots.

In all honesty though, it was a 5 game series so i

The Celtics 2010 series I think he was fine. He was poor in g2,3 and ofc 7, was pretty solid outside of that. Evaluating each game individually

G1 was great I think. He went 1/6 in the fourth when they were already up 18 going into it, so it hurts his overall game effeciency but doing bad when up that much doesn’t matter much to me personally
G4 was okay, he was effecient with his threes but the turnovers were bad
G5 was great
G6 was solid
G2,3 and 7 were poor

Of course in a vacuum neither of these series are super great and even in context, but I do feel that they (at least 2010) were better than their averages. In any case, I do think how much he had to work for his shots and how little space he had looking at these games back does stand out to me. Paints seemed way more packed than even other guys at the time. If we’re talking a guys most difficult series in the context of a half court scorer I do think it’s fine that he struggled a bit against teams that were generational in that regard, especially since how he performed in the run in general

Will leave it to someone else to dig up and compile Ardee’s old Kobe posts. :lol:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#91 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 2, 2023 6:37 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
See, but the plus-minus data we do have for the first few years of the Warriors run, has Draymond's plus-minus looking better

From 2015-2020, Draymond Green is 2nd in the NBA in Playoffs PIPM
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/j9xodj/from_20152020_playoffs_the_highest_rated_players/

This is significant because PIPM is too box-score dependent, yet someone like Draymond comes out looking so good in the metric, despite so much of what he does not showing up in the box-score.

It is not just PIPM of box-hybrid models that that are high on Draymond. From 2014-2019, Draymond lead the NBA in PS RAPTOR WAR.

From 15-17, Draymond is 2nd in PS AuPM/G.

Draymond is #1 in 14-16 and 15-17 PS LEBRON, even ahead of Steph.


But, again, as I wrote in the post you are responding to, how they’re rated in those sorts of measures compared to each other in the playoffs is highly dependent on what happened in extremely low sample sizes of minutes in the playoffs where they were on the court without the other. It’s also affected by Steph having missed some easier games in the playoffs.

So, for instance, you say that Draymond’s playoff plus-minus looks better in the first few years of the Warriors run. That’s true. But it’s also true that from 2015-2019, Steph only played 479 playoff minutes without Draymond. That is a tiny sample! Draymond played 962, and about half of those were in the easier games that Steph missed. Over 100 of the Draymond on, Steph off minutes were low-leverage garbage-time minutes that the Warriors happened to actually do well in (while there were 30 low-leverage garbage-time minutes that were Steph on, Draymond off minutes, and the Warriors happened to not do well in those). The difference here is really just based on a meaninglessly low sample size of minutes. And it’s a gap that is essentially entire a product of garbage time and Steph missing easier games. It’s also a gap that reverses if we take out early-round series that the team easily won (see a post I made below on that). And, as I’ve shown, when we zoom out and view an actually significant sample size of minutes, we see that in the last decade in RS+playoff, Steph clearly has substantially more impact than Draymond. You’re really just talking about something that’s the product of statistical noise and that isn’t true when we look at larger samples or drill down to more meaningful playoff minutes.

And you can say that the larger sample isn’t valid because Draymond produces more in the playoffs than he does in the regular season, but a lot of that is connected to teams trying crazy things to limit Steph, a major consequence of which is letting Draymond have the ball in really advantageous positions. As I’ve noted, teams gameplan for Steph more in the playoffs, playing even more cartoonish defenses to try to limit him. And, in terms of box-score production, the natural beneficiary of that will be Draymond—who, for instance, is going to be the player that most often gets the pass from Steph after Steph is doubled miles away from the basket. Draymond gets the ball in more of those 4-on-3 situations in the playoffs because defenses deploy those strategies more. Similarly, teams gameplanning more in the playoffs often means that in order to sell out on Curry (or sometimes to help on others, of course) they gameplan to consistently dare Draymond to beat them by sagging off of him a ton—which means he ends up getting more open shots. This stuff is why, for instance, we see Draymond taking almost 25% more shots in the playoffs (some of that is playing more minutes, but not at all of it). This sort of thing is a huge driver of his playoff box-score production being higher. He doesn’t actually score more efficiently in the playoffs, but he scores almost 25% more because he takes almost 25% more shots, and that’s in significant part a result of how teams gameplan for Steph. Basically, there’s a natural flow of box-score numbers from Steph to Draymond in the playoffs because of what teams choose to do in the playoffs to try to deal with Steph. I don’t think that that should be used as evidence that Draymond is actually more impactful in the playoffs. Draymond’s box-score improvement in the playoffs is in part a reflection of the impact of Steph!

I’ve posted this video a bunch of times, but I’ll post it again, since it’s very relevant to this (showing tons of examples of this in action in just one playoff series, and even starting with Draymond himself essentially articulating what I said above):



If we know GSW's offense declines in the PS, but their defense makes one of the biggest improvements ever, and we know that Draymond has been the captain of those GSW defenses, and all the data we have suggests he is among the biggest improvers in performance come PS time, I will say I think Draymond sticks out more in terms so plus-minus.


The idea that these players have impact that is siloed within offense and defense is just not correct, so I don’t see the point there. A huge issue for the Warriors in the playoffs often is that teams specifically gameplan to aggressively leave Draymond open, knowing he’s not a great shooter, and that has a negative effect on the Warriors’ offense compared to the regular season. And a huge benefit for the Warriors defensively in the playoffs compared to the regular season is that teams hunt Steph way more than in the regular season (in order to make him tired on offense) and it doesn’t work for the opposing offenses (indeed, I’ve noted that the Cavs’ FG% in those finals when defended by Steph was by far the lowest of any Warriors player) and leaves the rest of the Warriors’ defenders less tired. They’re both a huge part of the equation on both sides of the ball and there should be no assumption that a difference in one side of the ball between RS and playoffs is caused more by one guy or the other.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#92 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Aug 2, 2023 6:59 pm

f4p wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
f4p wrote:so for all the people picking steph, i just want to go back to playoff resiliency again. i looked at the last project's Top 33 (just stopped at pippen due to time and less interest in the players below him) plus newer guys like jokic, giannis, embiid, and kawhi and then put in tatum and butler. i would've put in doncic but i only did ages 22-35 and doncic only had one season (though he would have led the list below).

all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).


So, I didn't respond to this before but I think I should.

While I totally understand why you'd term this concept "resiliency", I would object.

When an opponent commits to putting great pressure on you, it's generally the right thing to do to pass. While that pass will sometimes count for an assist, in general, when the defense commits like this, they're going to knock any holistic production assessment for an individual even though he may well be playing more valuably than if he had insisted on keeping the ball and shooting.

Resistance to adaptation which can result in decreased efficacy isn't resilience so much as stubbornness.


sure. but i also think i would be more sympathetic if steph's assists flew up and his volume went down but his TS% went up, indicating he was foregoing shot attempts in the face of tremendous defensive pressure. then i would just be penalizing him for giving up the ball. but i look at things like the first 3 games of the 2015 finals before the warriors lineup change where both the warriors and steph struggled, look at the struggle for both steph and the warriors against a non-elite defense in the 2016 cavs, look at the rockets switch-everything defense giving the warriors and steph trouble in 2018 (when healthy), look at the same defense giving steph one of his worst series ever in 2019 (with the warriors mostly surviving on KD going off individually). it feels like the warriors biggest struggles are around times when steph himself was limited, indicating to me that the two aren't unrelated and we didn't just see steph putting up lower numbers but his team still cruising.


To me you're saying here that you'd get it if Steph's numbers changed like an on-ball player's numbers would be expected to change if the defensive pressure on him compelled him to pass, but with Steph playing a distinct role where there is no such box score transition you're left feeling like Steph's just getting stopped and thus less valuable.

To which I'd say: The nature of the rover position is that anyone used to traditional box score methods of analysis will likely underrate the player's impact in such circumstances. Because if your job is to get a shot by roving, and the defensive pressure is so extreme this is prevented, it means you're not getting the ball rather than getting it and passing it. To the box score, the player looks as if he's doing nothing...but the box score is wrong. He's constantly running and distorting the defense which allows other players better opportunities, that just don't show up on his personal box score.

And so we should never expect box score data to effectively evaluate the value of a rover, and we should expect that particularly for this type of player you really can't conclude much at all analytically without impact data.

And of course, if the impact data I saw made Curry look like he really wasn't all that effective in the playoffs, I'd see things differently...but that's really not what the data says.

Beyond there's this thing where I just struggle to understand how anyone can think of these Warriors as playoff disappointments if they are taking in the entire picture. We're talking about a team that has won way more championships and playoff series compared to anyone else in the time frame, and who has also upset other teams (by standard measures, SRS, W/L, etc) more than they've been upset.

I feel like people really have run with what happened in a 3-4 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers and let it define the foundation of their idea of Curry and the team. Oh sure people will also bring up '14-15's statistical struggles, but there we're literally talking about a team that won the championship and won at least 3 games in a row in every series - 3 times to close out the series, 1 time to go up 3-0 and basically clinch the series. If that's a critical part of the argument against them, then to me it shows how hard it is to justify the argument.

Re: Warrior struggles tend to come when Steph struggles. So 2 things I'd say here:

1. Shouldn't that tell you how central he is to the success the team has? It would be one thing if the team wasn't very successful, but when this is the team that's been the most successful of the era, if that success ends up depending on Curry, it speaks to how important he is, right?

I mean, I get it if you're using this as an argument for some guy in another era - I literally just voted for Magic over Curry - but I worry when it seems like people literally find Curry and the Warriors to be somehow disappointing, because to be perfectly honest, I don't know when we're going to have a team in the future have as much success as we've seen the Warriors have. While I'm bullish on the Nuggets, we could easily end up seeing the 2020s as the new 1970s where teams just can't reach dynastic levels.

2. I think this ends up going back to the fact that Kerr's offense just plain works differently from other offenses. It's a complicated machine that kicks ass once it gets into a groove, but before that happens it affects the box score of all the players in a way that you don't get with a more typical offense.

I've always maintained that stuff people tend to think is a function of Curry is really more about Kerr. We know Curry can play point guard. We know he can run the pick & roll. In an offense that just focused on that, his production would look more resilient. But Kerr wants a scheme that activates his "strength in numbers" philosophy, and the Warrior front office recognized value in that prior to his hiring specifically relating to getting more out of Klay Thompson. It then ended up paying off even more with how it allowed the emergence of Draymond Green as a playmaker.

There are downsides to this of course that go just beyond the complication that people rightly point out. It means that certain types of basketball players who are in the league really just for their bodies can't seem to fit in. On the other hand though, because NBA scouting is so focused on particular forms of body talent, the Warriors have been able to slot in guys who have something missing as a prospect into great success, and it's not even necessarily the case that they are super BBIQ guys. Gary Payton II I think really exemplifies this. This is a guy who if he had an obvious outlier BBIQ would have been a high drafted prospect, yet despite lacking this, on the Warriors he's been super valuable because of things that have everything to do with Kerr's philosophy and Curry's gravity.

f4p wrote:
It's not so problematic if you talk about it one stat at a time "scoring volume resiliency" "TS% resiliency", in part because it reaches for less, but when you put it all under one umbrella and then use the term you literally penalized guys for making the right call at times.

And of course those who know me probably no where I'm going with this: I think Impact Resilience is more the thing to focus on here, both because Impact is in the end what matters, and it has no preferences as to whether a guy helps his team by volume scoring, playmaking, defense, or harder to see and quantify measures.

Now as I say this, in the context of a project like this, I'm also less interested in Resilience than I often would be. How Great you are is first and foremost about what you actually do when it matters, not by how that compares to how do other times.


so i know i brought up some of this a long time ago in maybe thread #3 or #4 and you responded with a really good post and i never got a chance to respond, but i'll bring up what i brought up then. when steph's impact seemingly always looks good, whether he plays well or not (i'll say more when i respond to DraymondGold), it makes me question the value of the numbers and whether we're not just getting some weird lineup/draymond effect in the numbers and not really impact, per se.


I appreciate you being open about your concerns here. It's absolutely worth talking through.

On the broadest level I think the thing to remember is this:

The only reason why we shouldn't take +/- data to be THE defining estimation of player value in that context is noise.
That noise is a very real and massive concern...but when you're talking about something that's "seemingly always" happening, it starts becoming very problematic to chalk it up to noise.

Now, you're using the terminology of "weird lineup effect" rather than "noise", and I think it's worth getting into what exactly that could be. It's possible that in the end we can reduce that down to un-reproducible luck, so we can look at that...but with you saying "seemingly always", to me that doesn't really fit with the concept of "luck", unless you're talking about fit as luck, which we can discuss, but which I'm on record saying I think that this is an association to be very, very cautious about.

Just in terms of zooming in to a specific period though, I feel like the '21-22 regular season is the most obvious thing to look at so that's what I'll do.

Let's note up front that, in going from '20-21 to '21-22, the Warriors shot a worse 3PA%:

'20-21: 37.6%
'21-22: 36.4%

This isn't anything huge - the whole league shot worse in '21-22 than '20-21 - but I think it's noteworthy because it tells us that there's a limit to the the potential for shooting luck. Not that it can't exist, but this isn't a situation where the Warriors as a whole literally became considerably more successful at shooting 3's the next year.

This of course is despite the fact that that Wiggins & Poole saw their 3P% go up incrementally, the abyssmally low Oubre was no longer on the team, and Klay came back to the team for about half a year while he wasn't at his best, he still shot the long ball well by all reasonable standards.

We can do more analysis of the 3-ball here, but I'd suggest that it may not be as weird as folks may have assumed it was. A team getting it's players more used to playing this way while jettisoning bad shooters who weren't gaining traction with it, and getting a great shooter back part way through the season managing to not quite shoot from downtown as well as before, isn't necessarily that crazy.

Nevertheless, the team's ORtg goes, so what's driving that? Among the 4 factors, it's clearly the Offensive Rebounding %.

In '20-21 the Warriors were last in the league at 17.9%.
In '21-22 the Warriors were 18th in the league at 22.8%.

Big jump, who is getting those boards for the Warriors? I think looking per 100 possessions (for guys who significant minutes) makes the most sense here:

In '20-21:
1. Kevon Looney 4.7
2. James Wiseman 3.1
3. Kelly Oubre 2.3
4. Eric Paschall 1.9
5. Andrew Wiggins 1.6

1. Kevon Looney 5.9
2. Otto Porter 3.0
3. Gary Payton II 2.8
4. Nemanja Bjelica 2.6
5. Jonathan Kuminga 2.2

You see the difference in focus? Obviously Looney is doing more offensive rebounding and the rest of the top 5 guys are brand new. Not clear here is that despite the fact Wiggins is dropping out of the Top 5, his OReb/100 goes up, as do Draymond & JTA who are the next guys on the '20-21 list, and even Curry's rate goes up.

So if we're looking for a change in focus that helped the Warriors, I think the thing to look at is the offensive rebounding, which I don't think "luck" is a good explanation for. This was a strategic shift.

One might want to say that since the guys getting these numbers are not Curry, Curry should be seen as lucky...but I think it's important to remember that the Warriors were not a big team, and their main offensive rebounder is a 6'9" who isn't all that athletic.

I would suggest that this offensive rebounding shift had everything to do with taking advantage of the spacing provide by the team's outside shooting. Curry's not the only part of that, but he was certainly a big part of it.

And of course, then there's the spacing impact on other guys shooting. Here I'll highlight Payton again.

This is a guy with a career 59.3 FT%, who to this point in his career at age 30 has made more 3's in '21-22 than he has in the entire rest of his career combined, and did so with a decent %. And of course, that's not the really noteworthy thing so much as his dunks, which were not coming from him driving against the teeth of the defense, but rather were about the defense leaving him with space that allowed teammates to find him for the easy jam.

Okay, think I'll leave it at that for now.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#93 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Aug 2, 2023 7:18 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:See, but the plus-minus data we do have for the first few years of the Warriors run, has Draymond's plus-minus looking better


So, I think this is where it's noteworthy to look at things broken down by series:

Leaders for the Warriors:

First Round
1. Draymond Green 496
2. Steph Curry 392
3. Klay Thompson 308

Conference Semi
1. Steph Curry 197
2. Draymond Green 183
3. Andre Iguodala 157

Conference Final
1. Steph Curry 224
2. Draymond Green 173
3. Klay Thompson 127

Finals
1. Draymond Green 139
2. Steph Curry 136
(tie) Andre Iguodala 136

If we just cut out the first round we get:
1. Steph Curry 557
2. Draymond Green 495
3. Kevin Durant 329

I'm not going to say this alone clinches the conversation for Curry, but I think it kills the argument based around Green being a clearly more impactful playoff player, because if we know that this is totally on the back of what's going on against the team's the Warriors play in the first round, it doesn't speak to "when the going gets tough".

As I've made clear a number of times:

I'm high on Draymond. I've got him in my Top 50 for this project, I consider him the best defender of his era, and it's been important to me not to simply assume that Curry was the more valuable player for the Warriors than Green was. But while we can point to specific circumstances where Green was more effective than Curry, the general trend really doesn't re-enforce this.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#94 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 2, 2023 7:26 pm

Yeah, the above is a really good point about the playoff impact stuff too. I made a similar point several threads ago, noting how the playoff on-off advantage Draymond has is reversed if we take out easy playoff series against early-round opponents:

One variant of this argument about Draymond’s impact is to only look at low-sample size playoff impact data and say that it shows Draymond had better impact than Steph. I’ve addressed this with the below, pointing out that the relevant data is caused by advantages in easy early rounds and reverses when you take out easy playoff series against weak opponents.

______


I’m pretty sure that the data is largely caused by Draymond having advantages in easy early rounds—even beyond just the effect of Steph missing some of those games. If we just look at the Finals, WCFs, or a first-round or conference-semifinals that went to at least 6 games from 2015-2023, then, by my count of their minutes and basketball-reference’s reporting of their plus-minus in each game, the Warriors outscored opponents by +6.65 per 48 minutes with Steph on the floor, and by +6.07 per 48 minutes with Draymond on the floor (not sure how to get per 100 possession data for combinations of particular series’s like this, but per 48 mins is comparable/valid way of looking at it).

So, I’m not sure I’d put much credence in an argument that is based on relatively low-sample-size playoff data that are apparently caused by +/- disparities in blowout early-round series’. It’s basically just Draymond being on the court for more running up the score against weak opponents. And, I’ll note that there’s actually one playoff opponent that drops out using this method that actually was pretty decent in the regular season (the 2017 Jazz, which won 51 games and had a 4.0 SRS). And that’s actually a series where the Warriors clearly had a better net rating with Steph than with Draymond—with the Warriors outscoring the Jazz by +23.7 per 48 minutes with Steph on the floor and by +17.12 per 48 minutes with Draymond the floor.

In general, higher sample sizes are better, so we should look at regular season + playoff data, and if we do that then Steph’s on-off stats look clearly superior to Draymond’s. The rationale for preferencing playoff data despite it being much noisier is that it’s higher stakes and more difficult, but when an argument hinges on playoff data that reverses when you take out easy playoff series against weak opponents, then it’s hard to really see why much value should be put on it.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#95 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 2, 2023 8:43 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:What if I told you Durant has a higher Wowzy score. His PiMpp numbers are 0.2 higher as well, that's gotta mean something right?

If people want to argue against KD I'd prefer an argument, not a recitation of obscure numbers. This isn't a video game.

Harden has a habit of dropping off in the playoffs. KDs game is more resilient there. If it wasn't I'd be considering Harden soon, and I'm still going to consider him before long. Barkley is worthy of condideration also. Both Harden & Barkley peaked higher than the majority of nominees currently available. If Barkley had played in the 60s he'd be remembered as the GOAT no doubt.


You were the one who said you will occasionally look at RAPM numbers. I was just showing you why Kobe>KD isn't a crazy idea. You aren't going to listen to what anyone says here because you don't believe in adjusting efficiency for era, and you believe raw assists totals largely means they must be similar levels as playmakers.

It's okay to have your opinions, but I just tried my best to show you how data points you might value, think of Durant not being clear of Kobe.

I'm not saying your context doesn't affect your stats. It clearly does. That can be due to era, or it can be because you've got zero shooting around you like KD on OKC. What I'm saying is that is something better explored by a discussion. A flat adjustment based on the average TS% at the time potentially rewards players in bad leagues and punishes players from better leagues.

Of course passing/playmaking is about more than assists. I find playmaking to be a weird argument to use in favour of Kobe though given his historic reluctance to pass or abide by the system.

When you look at the Spurs in 90 or the Celtics in 80, and see the improvement D.Rob and Bird created. If you look at 05-07 you see Kobe's floor raising or lack thereof. Alternatively look at his time with Shaq. The Lakers are a 60 win team when Shaq plays and Kobe doesn't. Flip it and the Lakers hover around 500 or lower when it's just Kobe and no Shaq. Kobe played on an envious number of stacked teams. As I noted, his 08-10 Lakers teams had the talent to win 50 games a year without him once Pau arrived. You can't say the same about KD, as I noted. When Westbrook was hurt in 14 the Thunder were still great under KD, and the same sort of win/loss record is evident in Brooklyn, particularly leading the Nets vs the Bucks.

Kobe was a supplementary weapon that you add to an already good team. I'm not discussing the other players because Mikan, Oscar and West can be dismissed for similar reasons to do with a weak era (though Mikan is a 'not even top 100' for me, whereas West and Oscar belong somewhere I'm just not sure where - certainly not over modern candidates like D.Rob, Dirk, Giannis, KD, K Malone, etc).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#96 » by rk2023 » Wed Aug 2, 2023 9:10 pm

rk2023 wrote:Nomination - TBD (Dirk/Oscar)


Want to revisit this briefly, last time I looked into it - this is how I saw their best seasons between the two players.

rk2023 wrote:
Dirk:

Code: Select all

MVP Level - 2005-11
Weak MVP: 2002-04, 2012
All-NBA: 2001, 2014
All-Star or Fringe: 2000, 2013, 15-16


Oscar:

Code: Select all

Fringe All-Time: 1964
MVP Level: 1961-63, 65-67
Fringe MVP: 1968
Weak MVP: 1969-71
All-Star or Fringe: 1972-74



So in comparison...

Code: Select all

Fringe-All-Time+: Oscar (1), Dirk (0)
MVP+: Dirk & Oscar (7)
Fringe-MVP+: Oscar (8), Dirk (7)
Weak MVP+: Dirk & Oscar (11)
All-NBA+ : Dirk (13), Oscar (11)



Very tough to the point where I have to consider if the extra All-NBA seasons in favor of Dirks' longevity case outweigh the general sense of Oscar edging in regards to meaningful prime. One other nuance to focus in on is that Oscar, through his prime, was often logging 44+ MPG year after year as a Royal - seeing this slightly uptick in the playoffs. My head first thinks Dirk had the better postseason track record, but then a second guess remembers Oscar having to go out against Wilt/Bill annually - before a shot at the finals (and interestingly enough, Oscar grades out higher in F4p's 'resiliency' analysis). Dirks' team offenses at their best (which would be 2008-2012, come out to be better in a PS setting - though, again, vastly different eras and contexts for a side-by-side [to add, it's clear Oscar has one of the most indispensable WOWY track records on offense]. TLDR: I'm torn. I will nominate Oscar Robertson for now, in the thought process equivalent of a coin flip.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#97 » by One_and_Done » Wed Aug 2, 2023 9:26 pm

I'll just add that another thing bothering me is how the underlying logic behind the pro-Kobe arguments appears to be completely inconsistent. For instance, Kobe's stats are often cherry picked so the sample presented is only 06-10, even though that's a mere 5 years of his career. So what is the logic? Is the argument that Kobe got better in 06? His backers won't argue that, because that would diminish his role on the Shaq title teams. Was it the rule changes? If it was then the same applies, Kobe's impact literally couldn't have been as big pre-rule changes and he should get less credit for the Lakers run as Shaq's sidekick. Or if the position is that they favour a time machine/modernist approach, that we should look at how good Kobe could have been all along, then why are they still voting for old fogies who couldn't play today? There's no consistency in the pro-Kobe position. If it's based on what he actually did then his flat per 100 numbers come out as plain inferior to a number of guys, and even using only his most favourable 06-10 stretch he comes out worse than alot of the guys I compared him to on page 1 anyway.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#98 » by OhayoKD » Wed Aug 2, 2023 9:35 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:What if I told you Durant has a higher Wowzy score. His PiMpp numbers are 0.2 higher as well, that's gotta mean something right?

If people want to argue against KD I'd prefer an argument, not a recitation of obscure numbers. This isn't a video game.

Harden has a habit of dropping off in the playoffs. KDs game is more resilient there. If it wasn't I'd be considering Harden soon, and I'm still going to consider him before long. Barkley is worthy of condideration also. Both Harden & Barkley peaked higher than the majority of nominees currently available. If Barkley had played in the 60s he'd be remembered as the GOAT no doubt.


You were the one who said you will occasionally look at RAPM numbers. I was just showing you why Kobe>KD isn't a crazy idea. You aren't going to listen to what anyone says here because you don't believe in adjusting efficiency for era, and you believe raw assists totals largely means they must be similar levels as playmakers.

It's okay to have your opinions, but I just tried my best to show you how data points you might value, think of Durant not being clear of Kobe.

I'm not saying your context doesn't affect your stats. It clearly does. That can be due to era, or it can be because you've got zero shooting around you like KD on OKC. What I'm saying is that is something better explored by a discussion. A flat adjustment based on the average TS% at the time potentially rewards players in bad leagues and punishes players from better leagues.

Of course passing/playmaking is about more than assists. I find playmaking to be a weird argument to use in favour of Kobe though given his historic reluctance to pass or abide by the system.

The "mostly made-up" reluctance you mean.

Playmaking is more about assists than it is raw-passing talent which is why Kobe looks outright better in creation metrics, has led teams to higher highs offensively and has a stronger case for "best player on a goat-level playoff team" than KD had as the best player on any team he's been on from 2016 through to 2021. As has repeatedly been posted now, Kobe scores well or extremely well in every type of play in terms of efficiency and none of that really captures that Kobe is a far better ball-handler who can break-down defenses pre-pass and doesn't need all-time playmakers or single-coverage to get to his spots.

Durant is one of the least resilient performers in playoff history. While most superstars trade efficiency for volume when their responsibilities increase, KD sees his effeciency drop, without an increase in volume. Hence why his scoring was better in the 2012 playoffs as a tertiary ball-handler and playmaker than it was in 2013 or 2014 as a primary and secondary respectively. He was a tertiary again in GSW scoring great while creating very little despite nice assist totals:
Image
He was also a distant 3rd in touches, time with the ball, touches per possession and faced very little defensive attention all 3 seasons.

Predictably, Durant went back to being exposed in the playoffs when he left scoring worse than a two-way big in 4 of 7 games despite being left in single coverage for the best performance of his career. playing horribly in a sweep, and then getting vastly outplayed by Devin Booker as the nuggets outscored his team by a bigger margin than anyone else and over-the-hill westbrook outplayed him in multiple first round games.

His impact portfolio is horrible despite not putting up the load or minutes someone like Kobe has and he only ever looks competitive with the best of his era when box-priors are tossed in to juice otherwise pedestrian playoff impact.

He is possibly the biggest example of the box-score overrating a player and of any superstar, has quite possibly played with more help than anyone else in his career. Yet he only has two rings, one of which he was very clearly the 2nd fiddle(or at least far more clearly the 2nd fiddle than was the case with shaq/kobe in 2001). For era-relatvisits he has no buisness anywhere near this high.

For the modernists/in a vacuum crowd, the league is currently overflowing with kd or kd+ nba talents. Davis, Giannis, Harden, Kawhi, Curry, and Lebron have all played in a comparably or more talented league and have all been more valuable at their best(lebron somehow is still better). It's early tidings, but Luka already looks like a much better playoff performer impressively taking the Clippers to 7 while Durant was hailed as the best in the world for going 1-3 vs the Bucks. If we allow one-offs, KD has never played anywhere near as good as AD did in the 2020 playoffs. Giannis was already a way better player at the age of 24 pushing a 60-win team + better durant to the brink with average help as his primary scorer, playmaker, ball-handler, and defensive anchor.

If KD started his career 5 years ago, he would have never even been top 3.

Like Bird he is really cool on paper, and then very clearly not that good in practice when you remember pesky details like defense and proficiency handling the ball. At least Bird has 3 rings and has proven he can lead not 73-win teams to titles.

KD has only arguably led one, and that team, paired with two excellently fitting superstars and great role players, was played to a dead-heat by harden, a declining cp3, and well-fitting role-players in back to back postseasons in the games Durant played.

KD has no business being nominated, let alone voted over Bryant. Maybe he has a longetvity case against Bird, but even then Dirk and Harden are probably better candidates. He is in the shortlist of most overrated player ever. and even then, the media-machine can't get themselves to put him top 12, because even they realize the results, the bit that actually matters, are too damning.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#99 » by lessthanjake » Wed Aug 2, 2023 9:36 pm

One thing I want to add about the fact that teams play Curry differently in the playoffs (more aggressively selling out to limit him) and that that naturally lowers Curry’s box score numbers while elevating Draymond’s compared to the regular season, and that Steph’s impact remains super high either way:

We actually saw a pretty prominent example of a playoff team *not* playing Curry differently, in the 2022 Finals. There, the Celtics spent the first four games of the series essentially playing Curry in a much more normal regular-season-like way. They weren’t doing the cartoonish double-him-10-feet-behind-the-three-point-line strategy that has typically been the standard gameplan teams use against Curry in the playoffs. Instead, for instance, they had their big man sag off just a little bit on the pick and roll, in order to prevent the easy 4-on-3 situations that the normal playoff gameplan against Curry freely gives up. What happened? Well, Curry averaged an incredible 34.3 points a game on 66.4% TS%! Meanwhile, by design, this strategy resulted in Draymond being limited, because he was no longer getting the ball in an endless parade of 4-on-3’s. In those four games, Draymond averaged just 4.3 points a game and 5.8 assists on 28% TS%, had a negative on-off, and had his influence and impact so limited that Kerr opted to bench him for a large portion of the fourth quarter in Game 4. So, in that brief glimpse, we saw what might happen if a team played the Warriors in the playoffs with a more normal defensive gameplan that isn’t so hyper-focused on selling out to limit Steph. The result was a complete eruption by Curry, and limited influence from Draymond. Then, of course, after that, the Celtics adjusted to be much closer to a typical playoff gameplan against Curry. And, unsurprisingly, we saw Curry’s numbers go down over the last two games of the series, while Draymond’s went up.

And, interestingly, while Curry’s numbers went down in the last two games of that series (in part simply a result of a bad shooting night in game 5, to be fair), it’s not so clear that the Celtics’ adjustment to a more typical playoff gameplan against Curry was actually good for them overall or that Steph’s impact was lower despite the lower numbers. The Warriors fairly easily won both games where the Celtics played a more typical playoff gameplan on Steph, after having only been 2-2 in the part of the series where Curry completely erupted against more regular-season-like coverages. Furthermore, when Steph was on the floor, the Warriors outscored the Celtics by *a lot* more in those final two games than they had when he was on the floor in the first four games. This is of course just a limited example from one series, but I do think this shows a microcosm of (1) how much playoff box score stats (including of both Steph and Draymond) are influenced by opponents’ gameplans; and (2) how box score stats aren’t always indicative of influence/impact, and particularly not when a team is gameplanning to sell out to limit the player in question, since that selling out naturally helps the rest of the team.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23) 

Post#100 » by OhayoKD » Wed Aug 2, 2023 9:52 pm

70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
70sFan wrote:Some people are considering him for nomination vote though.

I don't know, I just fail to see what separates him from Charles Barkley for example - other than playing with the best supporting cast ever for three years of course.

I struggle to see what separates him from James Harden who played him to a draw in 2019 with a diminished version of the not as talented team he had beating the Warriors(and matching by point differential without garbage time) before his co-star got hurt. By box, outside of Warrior years, Harden has a massive playmaking edge. Impact generally seems to favor Harden too with impact-only(Cheema's playoff weighted RAPM notably), or hybrids(RPM, RAPTOR, Darko ect). Harden has several series against great defenses that are more impressive than any of KD's performances offensively if you account for creation and I think at his peak(going with 2020) hei just cleanly better than anything from durant as an rs+playoffs. Especially if you account for the questionable spacing and his co-star being hurt.

Harden's scoring is probably less teammate dependent than KD's and he's just a better creator and ball-handler. I think Harden is probably more worthy of a nomination.

I think the only reason why I struggle to put Harden in the same tier as Durant is that his defense is a real concern for the majority of his career (well and he has weaker longevity as well). I don't think you can really create a consistent argument that Durant is a better offensive player, unless you are extremely high on him fitting well with other ball-dominant stars (but past prime Harden did extremely well with Embiid).

Still though, I do have Durant higher mostly because of these two things. I don't think he peaked higher or anything like that though.

How big is his longetvity edge. I think with the injuries the career value could be comparable depending on how you view harden. Idk I'd actually take 2023 KD over 2023 Harden honestly.

I have 2020 as the best year of any of the two fwiw and i think 2015, 2018, and 2019 all have cases.

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