Attempting to adjust pre-1972-73 numbers

[ijspeelman]

Until 1972-73, ORBs, DRBs, STLs, and BLKs were not counted so it made adjusting for pace nearly impossible. When comparing players from before 1972-73, I've been comparing per 36 minutes numbers as we have more data for this (post-1950-51 where minutes were tracked). However, due to wild hills and valleys in pace, these numbers are unable to be era-adjusted and thus compared to other players.

For the Top 100 Project, I created a cheat sheet of all the league averages for TS%, FGA/36, FGA/75, etc. and noticed that FGA/75 basically hovers within 0.3 points from 13.1 FGA/75 from 1973-2023. I have then decided instead of using strict FGA/36 for those that played from 1946-1973, that I would use a factor (average FGA/75 from 1973-2023 / FGA/36) to estimate a pace change and be able to compare across eras.

Code: Select all

Year      TS%      FGA/36     AST/36   FGA/36 to FGA/75 factor
1946-47   0.326   13.98        2.070090634   0.939177788
1947-48   0.337   14.396875   2.10703125   0.911983015
1948-49   0.39   13.3        5.575833333   0.9871959
1949-50   0.41   12.46363636   5.88368984   1.053440993
1950-51   0.428   12.60703125   6.285169492   1.041458946
1951-52   0.438   12.125         6.571363636   1.082862307
1952-53   0.445   11.59928571   6.300854701   1.131940862
1953-54   0.442   11.30416667   6.104166667   1.161492559
1954-55   0.455   12.96041667   7.091145833   1.013061988
1955-56   0.458   13.70833333   7.279166667   0.957790065
1956-57   0.449   14.18541667   5.661458333   0.92557771
1957-58   0.449   15.27708333   5.891145833   0.859437969
1958-59   0.457   15.35       5.88125   0.855355405
1959-60   0.463   17.942           6.766   0.731786059
1960-61   0.469   16.40886076   7.251265823   0.800159479
1961-62   0.479   16.160625   7.179583333   0.812450352
1962-63   0.493   15.185625   6.809166667   0.864614099
1963-64   0.485   14.86125   6.4225   0.883485943
1964-65   0.479   14.975625   6.28625   0.876738398
1965-66   0.487   15.33447684   6.859583333   0.856221285
1966-67   0.493   15.37989256   6.731111111   0.853692926
1967-68   0.498   15.03136839   6.85304878   0.873487039
1968-69   0.491   14.77216917   6.942857143   0.888813642
1969-70   0.511   14.8037553   7.416114983   0.886917218
1970-71   0.5   14.64042499   7.283285509   0.896811771
1971-72   0.504   14.25872358   7.215064562   0.920819132
1972-73   0.498   14.47580482   7.558751793   0.907010397


Code: Select all

Year      TS%        FGA/75   AST/75
1973-74   0.503   13.01205882   3.42
1974-75   0.502   13.005   3.405
1975-76   0.504   12.96333333   3.255
1976-77   0.511   12.91159091   3.345
1977-78   0.515   12.96   3.495
1978-79   0.53   12.95045455   3.63
1979-80   0.531   13.09022727   3.735
1980-81   0.534   12.94630435   3.735
1981-82   0.539   13.03565217   3.72
1982-83   0.531   12.97956522   3.75
1983-84   0.543   12.95608696   3.84
1984-85   0.543   13.005   3.84
1985-86   0.541   12.93   3.795
1986-87   0.538   13.125   3.84
1987-88   0.538   13.14   3.855
1988-89   0.537   13.17   3.78
1989-90   0.536   13.215   3.765
1990-91   0.534   13.275   3.765
1991-92   0.532   13.455   3.765
1992-93   0.536   13.23   3.81
1993-94   0.528   13.26   3.825
1994-95   0.543   13.05   3.735
1995-96   0.542   13.005   3.675
1996-97   0.536   13.095   3.645
1997-98   0.524   13.14   3.63
1998-99   0.511   13.095   3.465
1999-00   0.523   13.14   3.585
2000-01   0.518   13.14   3.555
2001-02   0.52   13.35   3.6
2002-03   0.519   13.215   3.51
2003-04   0.516   13.2   3.525
2004-05   0.53   13.155   3.48
2005-06   0.535   12.975   3.39
2006-07   0.541   12.885   3.44
2007-08   0.54   13.155   3.51
2008-09   0.545   13.155   3.41
2009-10   0.543   13.125   3.42
2010-11   0.542   13.125   3.48
2011-12   0.527   13.275   3.42
2012-13   0.535   13.275   3.59
2013-14   0.541   13.14   3.48
2014-15   0.534   13.245   3.50
2015-16   0.541   13.14   3.47
2016-17   0.553   13.2   3.50
2017-18   0.555   13.185   3.56
2018-19   0.56   13.29   3.66
2019-20   0.565   13.185   3.62
2020-21   0.572   13.29   3.74
2021-22   0.566   13.38   3.74
2022-23   0.581   13.26   3.80


Let me know what you guys think. I think it makes it much easier to digest and compare these numbers with more modern players.

[WestGOAT]

I think you might be interested in an earlier topic I made related to this:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2150943

Basically anything pre-1974 I estimated the total possessions a player played in a single season:

What is your source for per possession volume before 1974 by the way?

I had to make a rough calculation based on the total number of minutes a player played for his team, and the pace his respective team played at (which basketball ref both provides). With this, you can get an estimation of the number of possessions a player played in a season. Let's take Paul Arizin in 1952 as an example:

Spoiler:

Total minutes played: 2939
PHW pace: 95.5 possessions / game
2939 / 48 minutes = 61.22.. total games
61.22 * 95.5 = 5847.38 possessions in total

It's not going to be super accurate, but I think It's better than nothing

Once you have possessions the rest is easy.

Looking back at this calculation, it doesn't adjust for overtime minutes, as I'm assuming 48 minutes is equal to a single game for team pace.