How good would Yao have been?

[Heej]

Wonder what you gsys would project as a median outcome for healthy Yao. He gave Dwight Howard the business when they matched up as far as I remember, and always have Shaq problems. Kinda see him along the same archetype as a Sabonis and Jokic. Skilled beefy pivot passers. Curious to see if people think I'm getting nostalgia glasses about this guy and what advanced stats may have had to say

[tsherkin]

I dont remember him being a stunning passer, more above average than that. Sick shooter, good rim and man defender. Couldnt reasonably handle tons of minutes but he was pretty damned good.

[XTC]

Yao peaked pretty damn high in 05/06 and 06/07.
Yao's biggest problem was whenever he would find form he would go down with an injury, but man was he unstoppable.

[rand]

Yao was not a passing center, not because he was a selfish player or had bad feel for the game but because a center with great low post scoring ability was supposed to be the focal point of the offense, not a facilitator. Passing for someone like Yao or Shaq mostly revolved around handling double teams and if a team wasn't going to double then the great low post big man was always expected to finish the possession themselves with a scoring attempt. Almost all of the great centers of the 90s and 00s had negative career AST:TO ratio including Hakeem, Ewing, Shaq, Mourning, Yao and Dwight.

Had Yao been entering the league today instead of in 2002 he would have received a lot more training in simply moving the ball as the ball moves through big men (rather than TO them) much more often today. And he would have been a good hub because he was a smart, unselfish and naturally talented player who was a foot taller than the average NBA player.

You're right on about Yao putting Dwight in his place, not just once or twice but consistently demonstrating that at least H2H Dwight was no match. Despite how much Dwight's offensive skill is sometimes denigrated, that is still saying a lot. Despite being an ATG defender and ATG athlete at center, Dwight consistently could not disrupt Yao's scoring and often had problems giving it back to Yao on the other end.

I think a healthy Yao would have taken over for a declining Duncan as the best center in the league in the late 2000s if he had remained healthy. Might have won some 1st team All-NBA selections in the early 2010s. If his body had held up he would probably have remained effective offensively late into his 30s based just on his height and skill level. Defense is another matter because of the evolution in the game Yao would have experienced in his 30s. 2009 was practically Yao's final season and he was only 28. It's amusing to imagine that in some alternate reality Yao's body miraculously held up and a slimmed-down mid-30s Yao is still in the league when the Kerr Warriors herald the dawn of the arc-centric era.

[AussieBuck]

We saw what Yao was? He just wasn't healthy for that long. Was basically rich man's Lopez. Better hands, better touch, taller etc.

[f4p]

i always wonder how Yao would have looked in the 80's. in a world before zone defenses. the biggest problem with Yao was just getting the ball to him. teams would just front him, and with his lack of mobility and jumping, the over the top pass had to have some arc to it. but then there would be a defender 2.9-ing in the lane who could steal it. but once yao actually got the ball, you would get 25 ppg, 60 TS% seasons like 2006. because he was money on his short turnaround and his hook shot and then, if you fouled him, he was money at free throws at 85%. in the 80's, big men mostly just plopped themselves down on the block and the defender stayed behind them. maybe teams would have done something else with yao because i have to think that is a death sentence. he's be scoring in the upper 20's annually.

and if guys like eaton and bol were racking up blocks in the 80's, i have to think someone like yao is as well, whether that translate to quite the defensive impact of an eaton or not.

[MiamiBulls]

We saw Yao at his best, elite skilled scorer, great shooter's touch, elite foul drawer and foul shooter. Unblockable shot, he was a lot like Shaq as a scorer for opposing Defenses: attempting to Front & Back Yao, encouraging Yao to shoot into triple teams, always trying to beat Yao to the floor for post positional advantages.

On Defense, Yao was a good rim deterrent and strong positional defender.

2005 Playoffs Yao: 28.5 PPG 3.5 BPG per 75 on +17% rTS

2007 Regular Season Yao: 29 PPG 11 REBS 2.3 BPG per 75 on +6% rTS

2007 Rockets had the no.1 Defense w/Yao on the floor; 7th Best Offense w/Yao on the floor & 10th Worst Offense w/o Yao off the floor.

[penbeast0]

Wow, people are seeing Yao through some rose colored glasses. Yao had 3 healthy seasons of 80+ games where he scored less than 20 ppg with a career best efg% of .552. Then he had 3 injury prone seasons where he got his ppg up over 20 with a career best of 25.0, however his efficiency regressed with the increased volume, never reading .520 from the field until his final significant year where he was healthy enough to play 77 games but dropped under 20ppg again though he pushed his fg% up to .548.

This is not Shaq type levels of either volume or efficiency.

Add to that his career BEST in assist % was 12.3 with a career average below 10 (career best was 2.3 ast/g, career average 1.6). This correlates with my memory of him as not having particularly good court vision or touch.

Yao seemed to be a wonderful person, a very good center if not a great one, and one whose height bothered Howard in their head to head matchups. I don't see him being dominant like a top 10 offensive center, nor did he show much sign of great passing ability, nor did I see him dominating games defensively though he was, again, very good.

If you ask me who he reminded most of, I would say a taller Rik Smits with similar strengths and weaknesses though his height gave him more advantages on both ends.

[ShaqAttac]

Yao peaked pretty damn high in 05/06 and 06/07.
Yao's biggest problem was whenever he would find form he would go down with an injury, but man was he unstoppable.

what was his impact like

should he be in the top 100?

[ShaqAttac]

i always wonder how Yao would have looked in the 80's. in a world before zone defenses. the biggest problem with Yao was just getting the ball to him. teams would just front him, and with his lack of mobility and jumping, the over the top pass had to have some arc to it. but then there would be a defender 2.9-ing in the lane who could steal it. but once yao actually got the ball, you would get 25 ppg, 60 TS% seasons like 2006. because he was money on his short turnaround and his hook shot and then, if you fouled him, he was money at free throws at 85%. in the 80's, big men mostly just plopped themselves down on the block and the defender stayed behind them. maybe teams would have done something else with yao because i have to think that is a death sentence. he's be scoring in the upper 20's annually.

and if guys like eaton and bol were racking up blocks in the 80's, i have to think someone like yao is as well, whether that translate to quite the defensive impact of an eaton or not.

i know theres context n all. but every time i see a clip soneone post of old baksetball the d looks trash

[dooki667]

We saw Yao at his best, elite skilled scorer, great shooter's touch, elite foul drawer and foul shooter. Unblockable shot, he was a lot like Shaq as a scorer for opposing Defenses: attempting to Front & Back Yao, encouraging Yao to shoot into triple teams, always trying to beat Yao to the floor for post positional advantages.

On Defense, Yao was a good rim deterrent and strong positional defender.

2005 Playoffs Yao: 28.5 PPG 3.5 BPG per 75 on +17% rTS

2007 Regular Season Yao: 29 PPG 11 REBS 2.3 BPG per 75 on +6% rTS

2007 Rockets had the no.1 Defense w/Yao on the floor; 7th Best Offense w/Yao on the floor & 10th Worst Offense w/o Yao off the floor.

I didn't realize his efficiency was that good. Shame TMac and him could never stay healthy.

[dooki667]

Wow, people are seeing Yao through some rose colored glasses. Yao had 3 healthy seasons of 80+ games where he scored less than 20 ppg with a career best efg% of .552. Then he had 3 injury prone seasons where he got his ppg up over 20 with a career best of 25.0, however his efficiency regressed with the increased volume, never reading .520 from the field until his final significant year where he was healthy enough to play 77 games but dropped under 20ppg again though he pushed his fg% up to .548.

This is not Shaq type levels of either volume or efficiency.

Add to that his career BEST in assist % was 12.3 with a career average below 10 (career best was 2.3 ast/g, career average 1.6). This correlates with my memory of him as not having particularly good court vision or touch.

Yao seemed to be a wonderful person, a very good center if not a great one, and one whose height bothered Howard in their head to head matchups. I don't see him being dominant like a top 10 offensive center, nor did he show much sign of great passing ability, nor did I see him dominating games defensively though he was, again, very good.

If you ask me who he reminded most of, I would say a taller Rik Smits with similar strengths and weaknesses though his height gave him more advantages on both ends.

His Ts% that year was .614 one three years over 60 ts% (Shaq had 5) his lowest was his rookie year at .570 ts% what's wrong with that? why use efg%?

[xinxin]

He was a lumbering beast.

Can do real damage in the post - both ways.

Just couldn’t stay healthy for long enough stretches. Could have reached WCF at least with TMac.. but alas…


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[penbeast0]

My impression of the Rockets was also that Tmac would step up and play his best every time Yao went down while with Yao, he didn't seem nearly as impressive. To some degree this is natural but it seemed extreme in his case. I'm curious if the numbers back me up.

[Dr Positivity]

I think we mostly saw the best of Yao, just not for enough games. His scoring compared reasonably well to someone like Duncan but was not as good a defender or passer. Overall a 2nd team all nba peak seems right.

[tsherkin]

My impression of the Rockets was also that Tmac would step up and play his best every time Yao went down while with Yao, he didn't seem nearly as impressive. To some degree this is natural but it seemed extreme in his case. I'm curious if the numbers back me up.

I remember that as well. It was unfortunate, but finding the chemistry between a perimeter volume scorer and a low post guy is challenging, for sure. It helps take SOME of the sting out of how things went with Kobe and Shaq, if you set aside a moment their interpersonal issues. McGrady and Yao didn't have that, but possession sharing isn't the simplest thing.

EDIT: and the obvious, 'if the big guy is in the paint, then that's less space for the slasher' issue

[SHAQ32]

Yao and T-Mac were never healthy together after 2005. When one was playing the other was injured.

[tsherkin]

Yao and T-Mac were never healthy together after 2005. When one was playing the other was injured.

And of course McGrady was never truly healthy after 2003.

[onedayattatime]

Wow, people are seeing Yao through some rose colored glasses. Yao had 3 healthy seasons of 80+ games where he scored less than 20 ppg with a career best efg% of .552. Then he had 3 injury prone seasons where he got his ppg up over 20 with a career best of 25.0, however his efficiency regressed with the increased volume, never reading .520 from the field until his final significant year where he was healthy enough to play 77 games but dropped under 20ppg again though he pushed his fg% up to .548.

This is not Shaq type levels of either volume or efficiency.

Add to that his career BEST in assist % was 12.3 with a career average below 10 (career best was 2.3 ast/g, career average 1.6). This correlates with my memory of him as not having particularly good court vision or touch.

Yao seemed to be a wonderful person, a very good center if not a great one, and one whose height bothered Howard in their head to head matchups. I don't see him being dominant like a top 10 offensive center, nor did he show much sign of great passing ability, nor did I see him dominating games defensively though he was, again, very good.

If you ask me who he reminded most of, I would say a taller Rik Smits with similar strengths and weaknesses though his height gave him more advantages on both ends.

I agree with the general sentiment that Yao's career was flawed, but it's worth keeping in mind that those Rockets teams were not offensively oriented and played at a snail's pace. Yao's points per 100 actually is comparable to Shaq - he peaked at 39.2, the same as Shaq's 2002 regular season.

[tsherkin]

This is not Shaq type levels of either volume or efficiency.

He was a 59.6% TS player over his career. 06-08, his 20+ ppg seasons, he was at 59.2%, 60.1% and 58.7% TS. That is absolutely "Shaq type levels of efficiency."

Not volume, though. The only season he was high enough to matter was a 48-game season (25.0 ppg in 2007), so it's a little suss.

It's important to remember that while Yao didn't hit FGs at the same rate as Shaq, he wasn't incompetent past 10 feet and was an 83%+ FT shooter on his career (and 85% in that three-year stretch), which made a large difference. He was very good at drawing fouls (not as good as Shaq, but .463 on his career and .472 during that peak). 46.5% from 3-10, 43.1% from 10-16. Dude had touch and enough range to cause more problems than if he could just get low-block position.

Anyway, the point is, he drew fouls very well and converting them at a very high rate, so his efficiency actually matched up with Shaq very well. Efficiency is not where you want to attack Yao, it's really volume, minutes and durability where words can be had there.