How good would Yao have been?

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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#21 » by penbeast0 » Fri Aug 4, 2023 11:58 pm

I did too quick a take and admit I was wrong.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#22 » by tsherkin » Sat Aug 5, 2023 12:30 am

penbeast0 wrote:I did too quick a take and admit I was wrong.


I think "wrong" is aggressive. Your point about volume is well-received.

94-03, Shaq posted 26.8 PTS36 and 38.4 PTS100. Yao has a single season of 21.7 PTS36 or higher, and 5 of 30+ PTS100 (two of them at 35+, one at 39.2). So there is a large difference in volume load apart from that 48-game season. The volume/efficiency relationship is important. There are caveats to it, but it is very much worth considering.

The only reason I replied is that Yao was very efficient. He drew fouls quite effectively and was a demon at the line for a big guy, which made up for the gap in raw shooting percentages Shaq created with his interior finishing. But he also didn't really demonstrate that he could score at the same volume as Shaq while also maintaining all of that, which is a perfectly fair point.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#23 » by MiamiBulls » Sat Aug 5, 2023 2:48 am

Shaquille O'neal 2001-2006: 337 Gms
26.6ppg per 75 on +6% rTS

Yao 2004-2009: 317 Gms
25.1ppg per 75 on +5% rTS

Not much of a difference.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#24 » by tsherkin » Sat Aug 5, 2023 3:04 am

MiamiBulls wrote:Shaquille O'neal 2001-2006: 337 Gms
26.6ppg per 75 on +6% rTS

Yao 2004-2009: 317 Gms
25.1ppg per 75 on +5% rTS

Not much of a difference.


So you're comparing Shaq including his lowest-scoring season as a Laker and then his time as a lower-minute #2 in Miami to Yao? Sure, that makes more sense than comparing him to peak Shaq, yes.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#25 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Sat Aug 5, 2023 12:40 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Wow, people are seeing Yao through some rose colored glasses. Yao had 3 healthy seasons of 80+ games where he scored less than 20 ppg with a career best efg% of .552. Then he had 3 injury prone seasons where he got his ppg up over 20 with a career best of 25.0, however his efficiency regressed with the increased volume, never reading .520 from the field until his final significant year where he was healthy enough to play 77 games but dropped under 20ppg again though he pushed his fg% up to .548.

This is not Shaq type levels of either volume or efficiency.

Add to that his career BEST in assist % was 12.3 with a career average below 10 (career best was 2.3 ast/g, career average 1.6). This correlates with my memory of him as not having particularly good court vision or touch.

Yao seemed to be a wonderful person, a very good center if not a great one, and one whose height bothered Howard in their head to head matchups. I don't see him being dominant like a top 10 offensive center, nor did he show much sign of great passing ability, nor did I see him dominating games defensively though he was, again, very good.

If you ask me who he reminded most of, I would say a taller Rik Smits with similar strengths and weaknesses though his height gave him more advantages on both ends.


the moment I read "fg%" I have an issue.
Use the proper stats and you'll see how Yao and Shaq had a similar scoring efficiency, with ![ having around 15% less volume.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#26 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Sat Aug 5, 2023 12:44 pm

tsherkin wrote:
MiamiBulls wrote:Shaquille O'neal 2001-2006: 337 Gms
26.6ppg per 75 on +6% rTS

Yao 2004-2009: 317 Gms
25.1ppg per 75 on +5% rTS

Not much of a difference.


So you're comparing Shaq including his lowest-scoring season as a Laker and then his time as a lower-minute #2 in Miami to Yao? Sure, that makes more sense than comparing him to peak Shaq, yes.

I might have not been paying attention, but someone's suggesting that Yao was a s good a peak Shaq?
We are more talking about what a healthy Yao could have been, and I think something like a late prime Shaq is possible if not likely, in particular if used differently.
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#27 » by tsherkin » Sat Aug 5, 2023 6:02 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:I might have not been paying attention, but someone's suggesting that Yao was a s good a peak Shaq?
We are more talking about what a healthy Yao could have been, and I think something like a late prime Shaq is possible if not likely, in particular if used differently.


He posted the stat block without context, so I was ensuring we got the frame right for what was posted immediately on the heels of what pen and I were discussing, you know?
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Re: How good would Yao have been? 

Post#28 » by homecourtloss » Sat Aug 5, 2023 11:17 pm

Yao and his career is a fascinating study for what just exactly makes for a good offense. Most people when they think about Yao think about his post presence, the post position he could establish with his monster tree trunk legs, his incredibly deft touch as seen on his pure looking jumpshot and his high free-throw percentages. But throughout his career, Yao Ming derived most of his value on defense.

In JE’s 1997-2022 PI RS+PS career RAPM, Yao is top 60 and a NEGATIVE on offense (-.3) while a monster on defense (-4.2) behind only likes of the Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Ben Wallace, Alonzo mourning, and a few others.

There’s a meta-discussion to be had about what makes for good offenses — here you have a player who is efficient,will make free throws once he gets fouled, can score from the post, but is not a good passer and turns the ball over. This type of player has a career neutral or negative ORAPM. If you look at ORPM, which is incorporates more box, he still on the moderately positive offensive player.
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