RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Larry Bird)

[OhayoKD]

It is also probably against the “spirit of the project” to make it your mission to vociferously campaign against every player you dislike — which apparently includes nearly every player predating the three-point line.

Haha to be fair, if that were the case, then I think there’d be quite a few people in this project who would be violating the “spirit of the project” with some considerable frequency.

I think the spirit of the project was the friends we made along the way

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Bird/Kobe has become so contentious, given that Kobe has always been polarizing, and that Bird has become polarizing on this board in recent years as the popular "guy to kick out of the top 12 to make room for someone else". The irony is that, broadly speaking, they're both probably in RealGM's consensus Top 12, but the PC board's high ranking of Garnett means that one of them has to fall outside.

I just did a full tally. By my count, Bird holds a narrow one-vote 10-9 lead when secondary votes are added in.

Bird 6(OaD, lessthanjake, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, Draymond)
Kobe 9(AEnigma, rk, trex, falcolombardi, f4p, ShaqAttac, ceilingraiser, homecourtloss, OhayoKD)
Mikan 3(Penbeast, eminence, OSNB)
West 2(Zeppelin, Gibson22)
Oscar 2(Colbinii, iggy)

Bird Secondary Votes[from non-Kobe voters] 4(Colbinii, iggy, eminence, OSNB)
(There were no Kobe secondary votes from non-Bird voters that I could see.)

For the noms, Ohayo just gave DRob an 8-7 lead over Dirk.

Nominations
DRob 8(Oad, penbeast, trelos, Gibson22, iggy, OSNB, ceilingraiser, OhayoKD)
Dirk 7(AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, falcolombardi, Shaqattac, Draymond, eminence)
Moses 2(lessthanjake, Zeppelin)
Doc 2(Samurai, Clyde)
K.Malone 1(trex)
Jokic 1(f4p)

(Worth noting that from what I can tell, homecourtloss is the only voter to not vote for a nomination so far.)

[OhayoKD]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Bird/Kobe has become so contentious, given that Kobe has always been polarizing, and that Bird has become polarizing on this board in recent years as the popular "guy to kick out of the top 12 to make room for someone else". The irony is that, broadly speaking, they're both probably in RealGM's consensus Top 12, but the PC board's high ranking of Garnett means that one of them has to fall outside.

Interestingly, iirc, Bird has never actually been voted outside of the top 10. Kobe was the one sacrificed to make way for KG and Magic. Seems both have been thrown to the wolves

For the noms, Ohayo just gave DRob an 8-7 lead over Dirk.

Actually switched my nomination to Dirk upon consideration

Sorry robinson

[rk2023]

now, his massive regular season plus/minus never showing up the playoffs is a bit concerning, with him only being a +2 on/off in the playoffs (after being +22 in the regular season and last year going from +16 to -16), but i refuse to believe that the guy i just watched was actually having no impact on his team whatsoever. especially since so many other impact metrics in his career paint him as extraordinarily valuable (though i don't know what they say in the playoffs necessarily). and duncan has 3 negative on/off titles and he was voted in #5. so jokic is my nomination.

Certainly outside the scope of this particlar voting, but I think when using PS on/off, I'm much more keen on the 'on-court' values and other, more pragmatic measures of goodness and how much an impact a player is having. For example, Denver was a +11.74 net / 100 (6.8 or so off) with Jokic on the floor filtering out garbage time. Even multi-year playoff #s can be noisy, on that note. For Duncan, two of those particular years you are mentioning were when the Spurs played to the tune of 10.4 and 9.9 /100 net ratings when he was on the court (1999, 2014).

[Colbinii]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Bird/Kobe has become so contentious, given that Kobe has always been polarizing, and that Bird has become polarizing on this board in recent years as the popular "guy to kick out of the top 12 to make room for someone else". The irony is that, broadly speaking, they're both probably in RealGM's consensus Top 12, but the PC board's high ranking of Garnett means that one of them has to fall outside.

I just did a full tally. By my count, Bird holds a narrow one-vote 10-9 lead when secondary votes are added in.

Bird 6(OaD, lessthanjake, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, Draymond)
Kobe 9(AEnigma, rk, trex, falcolombardi, f4p, ShaqAttac, ceilingraiser, homecourtloss, OhayoKD)
Mikan 3(Penbeast, eminence, OSNB)
West 2(Zeppelin, Gibson22)
Oscar 2(Colbinii, iggy)

Bird Secondary Votes[from non-Kobe voters] 4(Colbinii, iggy, eminence, OSNB)
(There were no Kobe secondary votes from non-Bird voters that I could see.)

For the noms, Ohayo just gave DRob an 8-7 lead over Dirk.

Nominations
DRob 8(Oad, penbeast, trelos, Gibson22, iggy, OSNB, ceilingraiser, OhayoKD)
Dirk 7(AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, falcolombardi, Shaqattac, Draymond, eminence)
Moses 2(lessthanjake, Zeppelin)
Doc 2(Samurai, Clyde)
K.Malone 1(trex)
Jokic 1(f4p)

(Worth noting that from what I can tell, homecourtloss is the only voter to not vote for a nomination so far.)

I would have voted Dirk though I am going to try and vote for players already nominated.

[rk2023]

I'm unsure how many of Erving, K. Malone, Paul, Durant I see Robinson over.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I'm unsure how many of Erving, K. Malone, Paul, Durant I see Robinson over.

I see The Admiral over all of them except for maybe Dr. J, pretty clearly.

I don't think CP3 should be in the conversation yet, TBH. I'd probably take both Nash and Stockton over him.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

For the noms, Ohayo just gave DRob an 8-7 lead over Dirk.

Actually switched my nomination to Dirk upon consideration

Sorry robinson

Awww man. I just see similar offensive impact for both with significantly more defensive impact for DRob. And I know Dirk won as a #1, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I think DRob's role on the 99 team is undervalued a lot.

[ceiling raiser]

I actually think Robinson might see his top 10 case improve by 2026. Though Jokic might be a mainstay by then.

[eminence]

CP3 I imagine will have a pretty wide window depending on how folks view hypotheticals.

I think I'll be a bit on the lower side, excellent player, but can't seem to avoid disappointment come playoff time, whether through injury or just general duds (eg '22).

[Colbinii]

Actually switched my nomination to Dirk upon consideration

Sorry robinson

Awww man. I just see similar offensive impact for both with significantly more defensive impact for DRob. And I know Dirk won as a #1, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I think DRob's role on the 99 team is undervalued a lot.

How is their offensive impact similar?

[OhayoKD]

Actually switched my nomination to Dirk upon consideration

Sorry robinson

Awww man. I just see similar offensive impact for both with significantly more defensive impact for DRob. And I know Dirk won as a #1, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I think DRob's role on the 99 team is undervalued a lot.

Yeah, I'd say it's massively overvalued if anything. People tossing one-year apm and on/off while ignoring larger samples, the far weaker teams a better drob led, the minutes disparity(and how that would affect plus-minus stuff)...has made Drob out to be a Pippen or Wade(or for some actually Duncan+) when he was probably more of a kyrie.

[Colbinii]

Actually switched my nomination to Dirk upon consideration

Sorry robinson

Awww man. I just see similar offensive impact for both with significantly more defensive impact for DRob. And I know Dirk won as a #1, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I think DRob's role on the 99 team is undervalued a lot.

Yeah, I'd say it's massively overvalued if anything. People tossing one-year apm and on/off while ignoring larger samples, the far weaker teams a better drob led, the minutes disparity(and how that would affect plus-minus stuff)...has made Drob out to be a Pippen or Wade(or for some actually Duncan+) when he was probably more of a kyrie.

I have 99 Duncan as good as prime Pippen. What separates the two?

[ceiling raiser]

What could possibly convince from a 'modernist' point of view?

Playmaking realistically. I don’t know if adequate footage exists, but that’s the best path.

Not a ton of footage, that's for sure. Depends what level of playmaking you're looking for, I think of Mikan as a good passing big man with a decent handle, not KG out there by any means, but probably equal or above any other big we've voted in.

A couple passes just after 6:25

Watch on YouTube

Who doesn't love a sequence with a screaming fan?

Watch on YouTube

My overall favorite documentary on him, if someone is bored:

Watch on YouTube

70sFan is probably your best bet if you're hoping for an extended clip dedicated to his playmaking, I'm not sure such a video has ever been made or is really possible (can you imagine a KAJ or Shaq passing montage if we sampled like 5 random games from their careers, there might literally be no passes worth showing).

This is quite interesting. Thanks. I do think Duncan was probably a better passer as well. I wonder who the best comp is then?

Wonder if Mikan vs Wilt should be a real discussion.

[OhayoKD]

Awww man. I just see similar offensive impact for both with significantly more defensive impact for DRob. And I know Dirk won as a #1, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I think DRob's role on the 99 team is undervalued a lot.

Yeah, I'd say it's massively overvalued if anything. People tossing one-year apm and on/off while ignoring larger samples, the far weaker teams a better drob led, the minutes disparity(and how that would affect plus-minus stuff)...has made Drob out to be a Pippen or Wade(or for some actually Duncan+) when he was probably more of a kyrie.

I have 99 Duncan as good as prime Pippen. What separates the two?

Well for one, there is Duncan playing way more minutes than any of his teammates again and again(which also means he is playing with their bad backups), there is his team not being too affected when his best teammates missed significant stretches, there is the prime jordan-level delta in playoff performance between 99 and 2000, there's duncan taking teams that were 94-bulls esque with a better drob to all-time dominance, there's duncan posting league-leading rapm(significantly higher than what by impact might be MJ's peak) despite having to play minutes with **** backups in je and cheema's sets(the only sourced ones im aware of), there is duncan posting prime net-rating splits better than anyone from the 80's/90's(magic comes closest) and then posting splits better than anyone but magic in his post-prime, there is duncan winning championships in multiple systems with different costars, there is Duncan(thanks largely due to how unusually good he was in 99) obliterating the field in Darko, and then there is Duncan being a much better defender than Pippen while also being a leading scorer/functional primary creator(with underrated passing and ball-handling) who ramped up in the playoffs.

Do you have prime pippen on par with prime mj or magic?

Because I've got Duncan there by 99

[Dr Positivity]

Vote

1. Kobe
2. Bird

Kobe is not as dominant for his era as Bird but he's still pretty damn good, and did it in more athletic 3pt shooting era and with great longevity. Bird is only better than Kobe for a few years, the early 80s ones is not.

Nominate

1. Dirk
2. Robinson

[OldSchoolNoBull]

And now, it's a tie between Bird/Kobe.

[trex_8063]

Thanks

Is a interesting play, bird cut defintely opened up the defense for a jumper there. A moderately valuable play

I wonder tho if this kind of play is the best example of bird off ball advantage over other more on-ball stars? Cause in principle gaining deep position for a catch or pass inside (through cutting or otherwise) and getting soft doubled is not particularly unique to "off ball runners"

I agree. Like I said, I wasn't [necessarily] going to try to argue this was an "elite creation" or something particularly unique.
I was more speaking to some who [initially, at least] implied it was useless flailing or completely meaningless/not creation at all.

Also a bit on an aside. I really wonder if thay couldnt have been defended better schematically?. The big at the top of the key gets in no mans land, he seems to help cowens man who dropped back. But doesmt go all the way to pressure cowens and ends in a weird spot.

Ideally i think the other big in that play (sorry for not recognizing him) steps to cowens, ans cowens mans helps the helper and takes his teammate assigment once the passing line inside was denied?

I don't doubt that practically ANYTHING we watch in a game from 1980 could/would be schemed better today [on both ends]. imo, the sophistication in terms of offensive/defensive scheming has come a long way.

[Owly]

CP3 I imagine will have a pretty wide window depending on how folks view hypotheticals.

I think I'll be a bit on the lower side, excellent player, but can't seem to avoid disappointment come playoff time, whether through injury or just general duds (eg '22).

I get that this could be just throwing one year out and game-to-game it was inconsistent, ended on a sour not but ...

at age 36 '22 Paul playoffs
+8.6 on-off
22.8 PER
.196 WS/48
4.9 BPM

the first two are better than RS, the latter two worse (but not by that much).

If you think he's causing disappointment fine ... (though part of me says: if you're expecting more than the above at 36 ... where does that guy land?). Or if not, but you're happy with the legacy externalities, you do you. I just not sure I'd characterize it that way myself.

[One_and_Done]

So I take it we are extending this until tomorrow morning?