RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Kobe Bryant)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#21 » by ZeppelinPage » Mon Aug 7, 2023 6:58 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Why do you feel Jerry West was better than Oscar?


If I may answer -- ZeppelinPage just wrote half a page on West's defensive impact. Oscar led offenses were outstanding in Cincinnati but the defenses were generally not impressive and Oscar himself, while a great physical specimen who was stronger than almost all the guards he faced, didn't seem to be a difference maker on that end.

It also could be because West stepped it up in the playoffs, particularly in the finals, while Oscar didn't have nearly as many playoff opportunities and so couldn't match West in that regard.


Pretty much this!

I don't really put much stock in actual winning, but rather how a player performed. Winning, to me, is a team stat. Five players are on that court and it takes more than 1 or 2 players to win a championship. West was a guy that actually stepped up and brought some of those Finals much closer than they had any right to be.

West has nearly double the amount of minutes as Oscar in the playoffs and consistently played against the greatest defensive teams ever. With the likes of K.C. Jones and Bill Russell on defense, West was still able to perform at or above his standards against the Celtics.

And while Oscar was a fantastic offensive player (and someone I rate above even West) his solid defensive play is simply not enough to make up for the gulf between him and West.

I know there is a tendency to downplay the impact of guard defense, but we're talking about one of the greatest defenders ever at this position, better than even Walt Frazier. With West you're getting, in my opinion, the greatest ball stealer ever and a lanky guard that can block and even rim protect against guards and forwards. I mean, he was able to clearly match up against wings like Connie Hawkins and still bother them.

I also wanted to mention that this kind of "threat level" for a defender is valuable for his teammates. The opposition is so worried about where West is and are wary of his incredible stealing and blocking ability that it makes them think twice about decisions. So, in that regard there are moments where West didn't get a steal or a block but him being in the area kept an easy bucket from happening. I was noticing this in the '62 Finals film where fewer passes were available for Cousy because West was running back off rebounds and passes or shots became dangerous with him around. This forced the Celtics into the half-court, which was the absolute last place they wanted to be.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#22 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:02 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Why do you feel Jerry West was better than Oscar?


If I may answer -- ZeppelinPage just wrote half a page on West's defensive impact. Oscar led offenses were outstanding in Cincinnati but the defenses were generally not impressive and Oscar himself, while a great physical specimen who was stronger than almost all the guards he faced, didn't seem to be a difference maker on that end.

It also could be because West stepped it up in the playoffs, particularly in the finals, while Oscar didn't have nearly as many playoff opportunities and so couldn't match West in that regard.


To add to that last point...

I think the chasm in team success between West's Lakers and Oscar's Royals in that 1961-1970 time period is too great to ignore. Obviously neither won a ring in that time period, but West went to eight finals in that period and came within one game of a title five times(West really has no competition for the title of "most tragic player in NBA history", I think maybe only Walton could compete), and he was the man on most of those teams. It's not just the Finals appearances though. It's that Oscar's Royals won a grand total of two playoff series in that ten-year period, and had four DNQs. Oscar never sniffed the Finals until he played with Kareem.

I get that Oscar didn't have the teammates West did, I do, but this just seems like a gargantuan gap that is very difficult to look past.

Okay, now look at the teams they beat.

If Jerry West were in the same conference as Russell, he would never have made the Finals either.

What Jerry West had was the league’s best co-star, better defensive support than Oscar, and a conference bracket which would not pit him against any of the other three best players in the league. That is the entire disparity in postseason results.

Here I will repeat myself:
AEnigma wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:Since the argument is West vs Oscar, I guess we are lucky in that they played against each other.
https://stathead.com/tiny/jtzzZ
87 games -
Oscar 28.5 to West 27.7
For games with stat totals
West: 53.5%TS/5.8 reb/7.0 asst
Oscar: 53.7%TS/7.2 reb/9.6 asst
So Oscar outscored West with better TS%, outrebounded him and has a lot more assists. Head-to-head 87 games.
Oscar played 20% more RS minutes than West, due to West playing 118 less games- so Oscar winds up with 189.1 winshares versus West's 162.6

West is lauded for his superior post season play. In 14 years, he only had one win against a team with a better record: 2 wins less than the 1970 Hawks,
in a season where Wilt only played 12 games. So he really never beat a better team in the playoffs. Mostly they were able to make the finals because he had a better team the the Royals, and he played in the conference opposite Boston.

Oscar’s best win without Kareem was in 1963 against the 3.8 SRS Syracuse Nationals (2nd in the league), coached by Alex Hannum. He was a 2.5 SRS underdog, with a six win disparity actual and expected.

West’s best win without Wilt was also in 1963, against the 1.4 SRS Hawks. The Lakers were 1.3 SRS favourites. I reiterate, West’s best win without Wilt was against a 1.4 SRS team. And even in those first two years with Wilt, the best team they beat were the 2.1 SRS Hawks in 1969.

Against Bill Russell in the postseason, these are their respective averages:
Oscar — 31.4/10.2/7.5 on 54.09% efficiency, 35.3% win rate (34.9% win rate if including the two series losses to Wilt’s 76ers)
West — 33/5.7/4.9 on 55.15% efficiency, 36.8% win rate

If West’s postseason scoring and defence make up for Oscar’s superior playmaking, longevity, and health, fine. I disagree, but it is a common enough opinion and not one we can exactly pour over film to challenge.

But to say, “Oh, Oscar lost earlier to Russell (or Wilt) than West did” is just not something I think should be taken seriously at all.

From 1961-68 (i.e. before Wilt joined), West’s Lakers went 328-223 (.595), which is a 48.8-win season on average. Oscar’s Royals went 336-268 (.556), which is a 45.6-win season on average. And again, Oscar was in the tougher conference. I feel like it should be pretty clear that the guy with Baylor and a functioning defensive frontcourt had better support, but just to add to that observation, the 1960-68 Lakers were .386 (31.6-win pace) without West, and the 1960-68 Royals were .239 (19.6-win pace) without Oscar, yet both Oscar and West were individually just above .500 when they were missing a costar (Lucas and Kareem for Oscar, Baylor and/or Wilt for West). Team success should absolutely not be what puts West ahead here.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#23 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:02 pm

ZeppelinPage wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Why do you feel Jerry West was better than Oscar?


If I may answer -- ZeppelinPage just wrote half a page on West's defensive impact. Oscar led offenses were outstanding in Cincinnati but the defenses were generally not impressive and Oscar himself, while a great physical specimen who was stronger than almost all the guards he faced, didn't seem to be a difference maker on that end.

It also could be because West stepped it up in the playoffs, particularly in the finals, while Oscar didn't have nearly as many playoff opportunities and so couldn't match West in that regard.


Pretty much this!

I don't really put much stock in actual winning, but rather how a player performed. Winning, to me, is a team stat. Five players are on that court and it takes more than 1 or 2 players to win a championship. West was a guy that actually stepped up and brought some of those Finals much closer than they had any right to be.

West has nearly double the amount of minutes as Oscar in the playoffs and consistently played against the greatest defensive teams ever. With the likes of K.C. Jones and Bill Russell on defense, West was still able to perform at or above his standards against the Celtics.

And while Oscar was a fantastic offensive player (and someone I rate above even West) his solid defensive play is simply not enough to make up for the gulf between him and West.

I know there is a tendency to downplay the impact of guard defense, but we're talking about one of the greatest defenders ever at this position, better than even Walt Frazier. With West you're getting, in my opinion, the greatest ball stealer ever and a lanky guard that can block and even rim protect against guards and forwards. I mean, he was able to clearly match up against wings like Connie Hawkins and still bother them.

I also wanted to mention that this kind of "threat level" for a defender is also valuable for his teammates. The opposition is so worried about where West is and are wary of his incredible stealing and blocking ability that it makes them think twice about decisions. So, in that regard there are moments where West didn't get a steal or a block but him being in the area kept an easy bucket from happening. I was noticing this in the '62 Finals film where fewer passes were available for Cousy because West was running back off rebounds and passed or shots became dangerous with him around. This forced the Celtics into the half-court, which was the absolute last place they wanted to be.



You feel that if Robertson played defense at West's level that it would make a dent in the Royal's defensive rating?

I very much do agree that West is one of the best PG defenders ever. But I am not actually sure if that is more valuable than having the most premium offense you can get from that position.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#24 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:06 pm

AEnigma wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
If I may answer -- ZeppelinPage just wrote half a page on West's defensive impact. Oscar led offenses were outstanding in Cincinnati but the defenses were generally not impressive and Oscar himself, while a great physical specimen who was stronger than almost all the guards he faced, didn't seem to be a difference maker on that end.

It also could be because West stepped it up in the playoffs, particularly in the finals, while Oscar didn't have nearly as many playoff opportunities and so couldn't match West in that regard.


To add to that last point...

I think the chasm in team success between West's Lakers and Oscar's Royals in that 1961-1970 time period is too great to ignore. Obviously neither won a ring in that time period, but West went to eight finals in that period and came within one game of a title five times(West really has no competition for the title of "most tragic player in NBA history", I think maybe only Walton could compete), and he was the man on most of those teams. It's not just the Finals appearances though. It's that Oscar's Royals won a grand total of two playoff series in that ten-year period, and had four DNQs. Oscar never sniffed the Finals until he played with Kareem.

I get that Oscar didn't have the teammates West did, I do, but this just seems like a gargantuan gap that is very difficult to look past.

Okay, now look at the teams they beat.

If Jerry West were in the same conference as Russell, he would never have made the Finals either.

What Jerry West had was the league’s best co-star, better defensive support than Oscar, and a conference bracket which would not pit him against any of the other three best players in the league. That is the entire disparity in postseason results.

Here I will repeat myself:
AEnigma wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:Since the argument is West vs Oscar, I guess we are lucky in that they played against each other.
https://stathead.com/tiny/jtzzZ
87 games -
Oscar 28.5 to West 27.7
For games with stat totals
West: 53.5%TS/5.8 reb/7.0 asst
Oscar: 53.7%TS/7.2 reb/9.6 asst
So Oscar outscored West with better TS%, outrebounded him and has a lot more assists. Head-to-head 87 games.
Oscar played 20% more RS minutes than West, due to West playing 118 less games- so Oscar winds up with 189.1 winshares versus West's 162.6

West is lauded for his superior post season play. In 14 years, he only had one win against a team with a better record: 2 wins less than the 1970 Hawks,
in a season where Wilt only played 12 games. So he really never beat a better team in the playoffs. Mostly they were able to make the finals because he had a better team the the Royals, and he played in the conference opposite Boston.

Oscar’s best win without Kareem was in 1963 against the 3.8 SRS Syracuse Nationals (2nd in the league), coached by Alex Hannum. He was a 2.5 SRS underdog, with a six win disparity actual and expected.

West’s best win without Wilt was also in 1963, against the 1.4 SRS Hawks. The Lakers were 1.3 SRS favourites. I reiterate, West’s best win without Wilt was against a 1.4 SRS team. And even in those first two years with Wilt, the best team they beat were the 2.1 SRS Hawks in 1969.

Against Bill Russell in the postseason, these are their respective averages:
Oscar — 31.4/10.2/7.5 on 54.09% efficiency, 35.3% win rate (34.9% win rate if including the two series losses to Wilt’s 76ers)
West — 33/5.7/4.9 on 55.15% efficiency, 36.8% win rate

If West’s postseason scoring and defence make up for Oscar’s superior playmaking, longevity, and health, fine. I disagree, but it is a common enough opinion and not one we can exactly pour over film to challenge.

But to say, “Oh, Oscar lost earlier to Russell (or Wilt) than West did” is just not something I think should be taken seriously at all.

From 1961-68 (i.e. before Wilt joined), West’s Lakers went 328-223 (.595), which is a 48.8-win season on average. Oscar’s Royals went 336-268 (.556), which is a 45.6-win season on average. And again, Oscar was in the tougher conference. I feel like it should be pretty clear that the guy with Baylor and a functioning defensive frontcourt had better support, but just to add to that observation, the 1960-68 Lakers were .386 (31.6-win pace) without West, and the 1960-68 Royals were .239 (19.6-win pace) without Oscar. Team success should absolutely not be what puts West ahead here.


Yeah, a number of others have made these points already, and if you look above, I have already conceded that I should re-consider that position. The playing in a tougher conference(especially from about 1964/5 onwards when other teams started getting good besides Boston) is a real thing.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#25 » by penbeast0 » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:16 pm

For me the issue isn't just how many playoffs or win-loss, it's that Jerry West stepped up in the playoffs and particularly in the finals despite usually facing the league's all-time greatest defense. It's like Hakeem v. DRob; it isn't about the 2 titles, it's about the fact that Hakeem and West were guys who rose up on the playoff stage more than most. Oscar was a more typical playoff dropoff, though again influenced by playing a lot against Boston.

Oscar was one of the 4 PGs that I have as possibly the GOAT playmaker (Oscar, Stockton, Nash, Paul), though West was good enough to lead the league in assist/game once. West was one of the 4 PGs that has a case for GOAT defender (West, Frazier, Payton?, Kidd), though Oscar's strength and physicality made him a decent option against big guards. Oscar was more durable. West was more resilient as a playoff star. It depends on what you value most.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#26 » by ZeppelinPage » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:25 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:You feel that if Robertson played defense at West's level that it would make a dent in the Royal's defensive rating?

I very much do agree that West is one of the best PG defenders ever. But I am not actually sure if that is more valuable than having the most premium offense you can get from that position.


I think how one rates these two can come down to what an individual personally values. I just find defense to be extremely valuable, especially in the postseason. I find that, when teams are game planning and know your tendencies, defense is more consistent. Players can suddenly shoot cold but an all-time defender doesn't really 'go cold.' And with the amount of physicality that was allowed in the 60s, it was easier for a defender to bother great offensive players, making West even more valuable.

While I do find that Oscar playing like West would certainly give their defensive rating a boost, it takes a team of 5 players to be successful on defense. You can have Ben Wallace or Nate Thurmond back there but the other 4 guys need to defend and communicate to be successful. Although in the 60s having a rim protector was even more valuable because of the spacing and rules--this played a large role in why the Royals and Lakers were never successful on defense during the 60s.

The gap on offense between Oscar and West just isn't substantial enough to make up for the defense. Along with his ability to score and get to the line, West was also a damn good passer and has some very nice passes on film and mentions of his passing ability in newspapers when he leads the league in assists.

And keep in mind, I'm a big fan of Oscar Robertson. I have Oscar extremely high on my own personal list and he is firmly in my top 10 all-time, I just have West slightly above him. And I don't think having Oscar ahead of West is some egregious decision, because Oscar was a fantastic all-around player that I still find to be underrated.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#27 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:32 pm

VOTE: Kobe Bryant
Alternate: George Mikan

Going with the two players on the board who captained multiple title teams. I have commented on Kobe a few times previously. Mikan is a bit of an arbitrary pick in my eyes with era assessments: either we take his dominance semi-seriously, or we are mostly throwing a dart at the board for when he “deserves” to be taken seriously. Next round I may vote for Dirk over Oscar over him, but so long as I am not drawn to using my alternate for secondary tiebreaker purposes, I will probably keep him in this alternate rotation just with an eye toward the tipping point where he will be admitted. I do not think he was better at basketball than most who came after him, but that is not exactly unique to him alone.

Next round will nominate Julius Erving. Second choice would be Karl Malone, but will only list him as an alternate if some third party quickly builds more support than Erving.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#28 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:36 pm

VOTE: Kobe Bryant

Kobe is very likely NOT a top 20 peak for me. He might barely be a fringe top-25 peak, actually (I'm pretty comfortable saying he's at least in my top 30 peaks). However, he's got MULTIPLE seasons which could [not always for the same reasons] be argued as his "peak season".......which means he's got multiple years playing at that fringe top-25(ish) [all-time] level. And he's got an "extended prime" that lasts 13 durable seasons. Compared to Curry, for example, Kobe's PRIME is like 90 or so additional games and >7k more minutes, iirc, than Curry's entire career (and not all of that is prime for Steph). His prime has similar advantage in length/availability compared to Bird's career, too.
And there are about 3 other seasons that are [imo] value-adding for Kobe.

That's adds up to a substantial amount of on-court career value (and recall: I'm a career value above RP type of guy).
Obviously his resume in terms of team success and media accolades [for whatever it's worth] speaks for itself. And he was [like Bird and Curry, among other current candidates] one of those players that drove global popularity of the game (and the NBA product); which, in turn, drives salaries, player pools, and general competitiveness of the league. He was, in fact, a global icon that transcended just basketball [fwiw].

I hope that will suffice for now as argumentation.

Re-iterating some of these same points, I'll quote myself from another recent thread:

trex_8063 wrote:Well, personally I don't anymore.
I used to rank Bird ahead, but I hit a point where I began to feel I put him higher simply because I wanted to, for nostalgia's sake (because I "liked" Bird more, appreciated his career more).
However, it wasn't so clear or easily justified if being honest about my criteria.

Did Bird have greater impact? I suspect he may have, but not by a substantial margin. For more information, I believe there is some data pertaining to both players presented within the bowels of the #9 thread of the current top 100 project.

For my part, I do think Bird peaked a little higher. If I'm comparing "average prime years", I think Bird's are a little better, even though Kobe is a touch more playoff-resilient, fwiw.

However, as I've established for years and years, I'm a total career value [above replacement] kind of guy when it comes to player evaluations (beginning to incorporate a touch of CORP principle, too). And Kobe sort of destroys Bird on the longevity/durability spectrum, which becomes awfully relevant to such an approach.

Take what I might call Kobe's "extended prime" (a slightly liberal view of what might be called "prime" years), what I'd gauge to be '01-'13....

That's 13 seasons (the length of Bird's ENTIRE career). I've just got through saying I think Bird's average prime year is better than Kobe's average prime year; but those 13 years include some of Bird's NON-prime, too. In his full-career avg season, is he better than an average PRIME season of Kobe? Maybe, maybe not. If it is, we're certainly not talking about a notable margin, imo.

And that's before giving recognition to the fact that from '01-'13 Kobe played 76 more games and nearly 3400 more minutes than Bird did [in his whole career]. In short: in terms of availability, Kobe's got ~1 full season more PRIME games/minutes played than Bird played in his whole career.

And Kobe's got some additional value added from '98-'00, too ('97 and '14-'16 are of no consequence to me).


In light of all that, I hit a point where I had a great deal of difficulty putting Bird's 13 years [really it's only 12] ahead of all that [16 years] of relevant Kobe seasons. For awhile [even after recognizing that], I justified keeping Bird ahead by telling myself that Bird was "bigger/more important for the game", "more iconic" than Kobe.

The thing that dispelled that notion was Kobe's death, watching the world react. Realistically, I should have known after the summer of '08 [the Redeem Team]. That spectacle made it clear that Kobe's persona transcended just the sport; he was a cultural touchstone, in a global sense. But somehow I missed it (or simply denied it) until his death.

So, no longer having that "excuse", I made the switch. In a way it was liberating. I stopped playing favourites, stopped bowing to a long-established hierarchy I'd established in my mind [e.g. "Bird cannot go lower than X place..."], and the world didn't end.


EDIT: And with Bird no longer even being in the way, Kobe is my clear choice.


Alternate: Dirk Nowitzki (for now; could see switching to Robinson)
Nomination: Karl Malone


I hope to make a longer post about the Mailman at some point, but I never know if I'll get the chance at this point.
One thing I can't help thinking about when it comes to ranking Karl Malone is that if the refs don't blow two shotclock calls in game 6 ['98] (or if they DID blow them in real-time, but were allowed video review--->as would be mandated protocol today), the Jazz almost assuredly win game 6. Then game 7 is played in SLC, with Scottie Pippen playing injured.
In short: two crucial calls made correctly likely results in the Jazz winning the '98 title [and Malone winning FMVP]==>both of these things likely occurring even without any improvement in Malone's performance in said Finals.

If that had taken place, I don't think anyone would blink at someone ranking Karl Malone in the top 10-11 all-time. Because honestly: we'd be looking at the 3rd-leading scorer of all-time (with a couple of the higher/highest rs TS Added on record, iirc), who's also top 10 [I think] in rebounds, high(ish) ranked in steals and assists, who was also awarded All-Defensive honours, twice MVP of the league, a gigantic smattering of All-Star and All-NBA nods, and then a proven leader of a championship team. Almost no one would vehemently argue against such placement of that broad-strokes resume.

But because the refs did blow those calls and the Jazz lost, I'm perpetually among the contingent that vociferously argues [usually without success] to even garner him serious top 15 consideration. Alas....
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#29 » by Gibson22 » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:42 pm

VOTE: West
Alternate: Robertson

I won't vote mikan yet (around #20) because of longevity and era issues, and dirk because he's inferior enough to the other 3 where I don't think it needs to be addressed (not that I don't respect him, I think his range is 17-22). Oh there's also drob, well his lack of longevity and offensive impact make him again a lot lower than oscar and west, probably slightly higher than dirk.
First of all, let me clarify that I am in no way sure about west vs oscar, and I will vote west because of preference, what I perceive as superior playoff relisiency, a more "standard" winning type of game, and things like that, but if there was a correct answer about who's better between them, I wouldn't bet a lot on my guess. Let me also say that I think that does two are good enough that I don't feel totally comfortable about putting anybody that's outside my top 5 above them and I think they are vastly underrated as far as this ranking and their average ranking.
I think that the main thing should be the two of them vs kobe, and I will link my very simple opinion thread, where I think nobody gave a convincing answer about what case does kobe have above either of them, or just, in what area of the game does kobe impact better than those two? The answer should be none over west, and some negligible, not needle moving defense over oscar. Rings aren't an argument, the longevity (if he actually has era relative longevity over them) and modernity arguments not being close to being enough to colme the gap. viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2311545

"do you think that kobe has a legit case over oscar or west? I'm not saying he doesn't have any argument, he has some longevity (which is kind era relative), probably has defensive advantage over robertson, rings, and if you consider them really close you could give the advantage to kobe because he played in the 00s and not in the 60s, but I struggle to think he has a solid case over one of them. Oscar had tremendous offensive impact, consistently leading n.1 offenses which would fall apart without him, he was posting +10rts scoring seasons on high volume and he was the best playmaker. He was easily the best playmaker of the pre 3 point era and a top 4 scorer, making him in my opinion the best offensive player (would probably go oscar kaj west). The offensive advantage that oscar has is clearly, imho, smaller than the little defensive advantage that we have reason to suppose kobe has over him.
And west has such a big defensive advantage while also being a better offensive player (more efficient scorer, better playmaker, just as much combination of spacing/gravity), and all these legendary playoff performances.
I just think that, compared to their peers, those 2 just had more stand up skills compared to kobe. Better athletes, playmakers, shooters. And they fare better in most basketball macro areas and are more impactful on paper.
Like, what does kobe do better than jerry west, relative to era? To me west looks like a better shooter, better playmaker, just as good of a athlete/scorer at the rim, vastly better defender, if you wanna reference the pressure that kobe's style of play put on defenses I think that relative to era west is close to that, while also providing more spacing, and also having that 2 dribbles pull up shooting guard game.
What do you think?"


Nomination: Julius Erving (difficult tu judge his ABA years, but realistically he was very far ahead other non big players in the 70s, and the best player in the 70s
Karl Malone: longevity trumps the gap with better players than him (kd, moses, barkley, also modernity argument over pettit and mikan)
(next would be kd)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#30 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:44 pm

So, looking at Oscar's Cincy years and playoff eliminators:

1961 & 1962, both in West, Lakers just better.

1963 - both lose to Boston, Cincy takes them to 7.
1964 - no direct comparison, but Cincy has season edge
1965 - no direct comparison, no clear edge
1966 - both lose to Boston, Lakers slight edge
1967 - both teams not very good
1968 - Cincy not good, Lakers clear edge
1969 - Cincy not good, Lakers clear edge
1970 - Cincy not good, Lakers clear edge

So basically, I think you can argue that the Lakers didn't necessarily have a massive edge up through '67, and then the Royals fall apart while the Lakers get a bit more consistent.

I think in general folks would agree that if we split their careers in half, we get pretty clean results:

'60-61 to '66-67: Oscar achieves more
'67-68 to '73-74: West achieves more

From there it's kind of a question of whether you think Oscar's edge in the first half is bigger than West's in the second.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#31 » by Samurai » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:45 pm

Vote for #13: Jerry West
This is between West, Oscar, Kobe and Mikan for me and West gets my vote. West is clearly the best perimeter shooter of the group. He was also an excellent slasher, drawing more fouls than Kobe or Mikan and roughly the same FTr as Oscar. Oscar is clearly the best PG passer of the group, although West did well enough in this role to lead the league in assists in 72. West's biggest drawback to me is his lack of durability in comparison to Kobe and Oscar.

West has a clear advantage on defense. There is no question in my mind that if blocks and steals were recorded, West would have far more than Oscar or Kobe. Wilt once made the statement that if blocks were recorded, he believed that there would be some years in which West would have been third in the league behind only himself and Russell. Do I believe that? No, but to finish in the top ten in a much smaller league seems entirely possible. And the idea of a PG even sniffing the top ten in blocks, in any era, seems remarkable. We know that steals weren't recorded until the 73-74 season, West's final year. As a largely broken down 35-year old, West only managed to play in 31 games that season. We know that West is credited with 2.6 steals/game that season, which would have been good for second in the league if he had enough games to qualify. We know that on December 7, 1973 West recorded 10 steals in one game against Seattle (the NBA record is 11). We have no way of knowing what West's steal numbers would have looked like; we only have guestimates. Roland Lazenby made one such attempt by analyzing the top 20 players in career steals, calculating the trajectory/percentages of how their SPG rose and fell between the ages of 22 and 35 (to match West's playing career), and applied that to West retroactively based on his final season (the only one we have official stats for). The all-time season record is 4.12 by Don Buse (ABA) in 76. Lazenby has West matching that number in 64. A player has averaged 3.0 SPG only 11 times in history (since steals were first recorded); Lazenby has West achieving that mark 9 times by himself. Lakers scorekeeper John Ratcliffe said that if steals had been recorded, West would easily be the all-time leader with little hope of anyone else ever catching him. I have no reason to doubt him.

Obviously blocks and steals don't tell the complete story of a player's defense. While announcing a Bucks/Lakers game in 71, Bill Russell was asked to compare Oscar and West. While he politely declined to say which one was "better", he just said that Oscar is a much better offensive player than he was on defense and West was a much better defensive player than he was on offense. Which caught the questioner off-guard (I can't remember his name) but he said West is "much" better on defense? He reminded Russ that West was pretty fair on offense. Russell said West was absolutely phenomenal on offense but he doubled down on him being "much" better on defense. Russell then said that he thinks West is the best defensive player in the league. His partner clarified 'you mean best defensive guard'? Russell said no, he thinks West is the best defensive player regardless of position. His partner then asked "Better than you?" At which Russell just laughed and reminded him that he said West was the best defender in the league today (Russ had retired the year before). I'm pretty sure Russ intended for the compliment on West's defense to be a subtle dig at his old nemesis Wilt, but you still had guys like Thurmond, Kareem, Frazier. Hondo and DeBusschere playing. Obviously you could choose to disregard Russell's comments completely or just chalk it up to a retired guy that doesn't know much about defense, but it gives some idea of how West's impact was viewed at that time, particularly for those who never saw him play outside of Youtube.

And there is also the era component. I think era context is needed, otherwise Mikan could have already been a top ten pick. It just depends on how much you want to penalize/credit a particular player for the era he played in. Typically guys who played in the 60's will face some type of penalty for playing in that era. But in West's case, I'm not so sure that applies. I believe West played in the worst possible era for a player with his skillset - a brilliant outside shooter with no 3-point line, harsher enforcement of carrying, more violent interior play (West was a slasher and suffered at least 9 broken noses), lower percentage of assists given per basket made. For most 60's players, I assume they would score less with the slower pace of later eras. I'm not at all convinced that applies to West. The 3-point line, better spacing, changes in backcourt defense - I think West could be an even more impactful player if he were born in 1998 instead of 1938.

Alternate vote: Oscar Robertson
I have no problem with anyone putting Kobe here or even over West. It's pretty close for me. I was going to make Kobe my alternate but for those of us who grew up watching them play, West and the Big O just kinda go together like peanut butter and jelly. It would just feel weird to list one and not the other. Mikan would be just after the West, Oscar, Kobe tier - still have to reconcile my bias over his era.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#32 » by Gibson22 » Mon Aug 7, 2023 7:49 pm

Generally, I would like to hear a little bit more about kobe vs oscar, kobe vs west by the kobe voters. Sorry If im focusing on kobe (which i don't hate, and believe that has more of an argument about a few guys that were already selected than over those 2) but he's the clear favorite, and he's also more comparable since they are 3 guards around the same size. Also generally, I don't know if it's totally understood how west is as good defensively as any other guard in history, and how oscar does have an argument for being best offensive player ever and is for sure a tier 1 offensive player ever
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#33 » by lessthanjake » Mon Aug 7, 2023 8:08 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:Vote for #13: Kobe Bryant
Alternate Vote: Jerry West

Nomination: Moses Malone
Alternate Nomination: Nikola Jokic

Kobe Bryant

The reasoning for my vote for Kobe Bryant is pretty simple to be honest. At this point, there’s just a big achievement gap between him and everyone else (besides Mikan, who just is too much of a dinosaur of basketball history for me to vote for at this point). As the #1 player on a team, he won 2 titles and made the finals another time, despite his team not being all *that* talented. And, while he wasn’t the #1 player on the three-peat Lakers, he was still a major part of it, and I put a good deal of weight on just how good the 2001 Lakers were, since it shows that obviously Kobe could be a major part of an all-time-level team.

I just don’t really see much of a case for the other guys when you look through a lens in which achievement in the game is a major part of the puzzle for a player’s greatness (which I do). Dirk got one title as a #1 player and that was very impressive, but it was just one and the rest of his career was mostly spent with varying degrees of playoff underachievement. Oscar Robertson has a title as the #2 on an all-time-level team, so that’s equivalent to Kobe in 2001, but he didn’t win a title as the #1 player, and he also wasn’t able to get more than one title with Kareem. Jerry West was great, but only managed to actually get one title, despite tons of chances, including in years where his team was probably the most talented. David Robinson never got a title as the clear #1 player (though I understand there’s some debate whether he was at Duncan’s level in 1999), and one of his two titles was legitimately as a role player. Meanwhile, while Mikan has the team achievement, I just can’t vote for someone from his era yet, since I just don’t regard that era of basketball as having been equivalent. Mikan was basically just before my cutoff where I’m willing to consider players in mostly era-relative terms.

I realize that this is mostly a “ringz” argument, but ultimately the game is about winning titles, and so if we’re determining who were the greatest players, that has to be a major element of the equation, such that a huge gap in this regard can be determinative. Would Kobe have necessarily won more in some of these other players’ situations? Maybe not. I don’t know. But these players’ careers are what they are, and, to some degree a player’s “greatness” in team sports comes down to luck of what team they were on. Whether it’s because he was a better player or just had luckier situations, I think Kobe Bryant was ultimately “greater” than the other nominees.



I'm not trying to control the criteria here, but for projects like this I don't care very much about achievements. The achievements are the things we already know and are undebatable: who won the game, who won the championship, who got how many media votes.

There's not much doubt that Kobe is one of the most decorated careers ever, but does that mean he was one of the best players in terms of impact on winning? Maybe he was, but I'm not using achievements to determine that.

I look at Kobe (along with Bird, Duncan, Magic, Russell, Shaq, Curry) as being all-time great players with very good career fortune. They all have a type of career where they either walked into a winning environment, and/or got to spend the majority of their careers in a winning environmeny (which they of course helped create and sustain). On the opposite end we Hakeem, KG, Wilt, West etc. as with murkier "achievements" because they played in less ideal circumstances throughout their careers. The winning bias is hard to weigh.

I more want to figure out "impact" than argue "greatness". I don't really believe in the later.


I think there’s room for disagreement on approach here. I think someone can take a view that their criteria is just looking at what impact they think the player had or would have on teams, regardless of titles won or whatever. But the guidelines for the project do also say we should take into account “competitive achievement,” so I think it’s also well within the bounds of things to weigh team achievements highly.

And, to be clear, my votes are not just based on team achievements. I’ve voted players that won fewer titles above players who won more, and my arguments have included quite a lot of information and reasoning that is about a lot of other stuff. Impact on the court certainly matters to me a lot—and I’ve talked about it as much as anyone! To me, though, there just comes a point when there’s *such* a difference in “competitive achievement” that it basically has to outweigh other stuff and functionally becomes dispositive. And, for me, in this particular vote, that comes into play, because Kobe is just on a different plane from the other guys in that regard (minus Mikan, who I’m not voting for for other reasons). It also came into play for me when voting Bill Russell above some guys I’m not convinced he was a better basketball player than.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#34 » by iggymcfrack » Mon Aug 7, 2023 8:29 pm

Gibson22 wrote:Generally, I would like to hear a little bit more about kobe vs oscar, kobe vs west by the kobe voters. Sorry If im focusing on kobe (which i don't hate, and believe that has more of an argument about a few guys that were already selected than over those 2) but he's the clear favorite, and he's also more comparable since they are 3 guards around the same size. Also generally, I don't know if it's totally understood how west is as good defensively as any other guard in history, and how oscar does have an argument for being best offensive player ever and is for sure a tier 1 offensive player ever


To me, it seems like:

Defense: West > Kobe > Oscar
Passing/playmaking: Oscar > West > Kobe

The thing that’s hard to gauge is the scoring. Oscar’s volume doesn’t quite measure up to West and Kobe, but he has the best efficiency. Meanwhile, I feel Iike due to era, Kobe actually has an advantage when it comes to scoring since all three are very good shooters with Kobe actually being the worst shooter of the bunch and Kobe played in the 3-point era. Also, a large part of the reason that Oscar didn’t score as much is because he was so focused on passing and finding people. I feel like all 3 are pretty close with maybe a slight edge to West.

So basically, it seems like West beats Kobe in all 3 phases of the game while Oscar’s passing/playmaking, rebounding, and health/longevity give Oscar a slight edge over West.

BUT I hear you saying, didn’t Kobe have a huge edge in longevity? Yes and no. Comparing West and Oscar’s 14 year careers to Kobe’s best 14 years leads to the preceding analysis. Did Kobe provide any value after 2013? I’d say unequivocally no. Like if a peak season from one of these guys is worth 60 points, IDK if Kobe’s 2014-2016 seasons would even be worth 1 and even in 2013, he had an injury that caused him to miss the playoffs. Well, how about before 2000? We’ve got 2 years where he comes off the bench and has a negative BPM in the playoffs, and then another year (‘99) where he’s like…. a good starter? So at most you get 15 valuable seasons out of Kobe compared to 14 for Oscar and West with West having 2 playoff injuries and Kobe having 1. I think you could actually make a case for Oscar > Kobe in terms of meaningful longevity. Realistically, they’re probably in a virtual tie with both having an edge over West there.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#35 » by Gibson22 » Mon Aug 7, 2023 8:31 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Gibson22 wrote:Generally, I would like to hear a little bit more about kobe vs oscar, kobe vs west by the kobe voters. Sorry If im focusing on kobe (which i don't hate, and believe that has more of an argument about a few guys that were already selected than over those 2) but he's the clear favorite, and he's also more comparable since they are 3 guards around the same size. Also generally, I don't know if it's totally understood how west is as good defensively as any other guard in history, and how oscar does have an argument for being best offensive player ever and is for sure a tier 1 offensive player ever


To me, it seems like:

Defense: West > Kobe > Oscar
Passing/playmaking: Oscar > West > Kobe

The thing that’s hard to gauge is the scoring. Oscar’s volume doesn’t quite measure up to West and Kobe, but he has the best efficiency. Meanwhile, I feel Iike due to era, Kobe actually has an advantage when it comes to scoring since all three are very good shooters with Kobe actually being the worst shooter of the bunch and Kobe played in the 3-point era. Also, a large part of the reason that Oscar didn’t score as much is because he was so focused on passing and finding people. I feel like all 3 are pretty close with maybe a slight edge to West.

So basically, it seems like West beats Kobe in all 3 phases of the game while Oscar’s passing/playmaking, rebounding, and health/longevity give Oscar a slight edge over West.

BUT I hear you saying, didn’t Kobe have a huge edge in longevity? Yes and no. Comparing West and Oscar’s 14 year careers to Kobe’s best 14 years leads to the preceding analysis. Did Kobe provide any value after 2013? I’d say unequivocally no. Like if a peak season from one of these guys is worth 60 points, IDK if Kobe’s 2014-2016 seasons would even be worth 1 and even in 2013, he had an injury that caused him to miss the playoffs. Well, how about before 2000? We’ve got 2 years where he comes off the bench and has a negative BPM in the playoffs, and then another year (‘99) where he’s like…. a good starter? So at most you get 15 valuable seasons out of Kobe compared to 14 for Oscar and West with West having 2 playoff injuries and Kobe having 1. I think you could actually make a case for Oscar > Kobe in terms of meaningful longevity. Realistically, they’re probably in a virtual tie with both having an edge over West there.


That's basically what I think and I don't really get how could anybody think differently,
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#36 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 7, 2023 9:15 pm

trex_8063 wrote:One thing I can't help thinking about when it comes to ranking Karl Malone is that if the refs don't blow two shotclock calls in game 6 ['98] (or if they DID blow them in real-time, but were allowed video review--->as would be mandated protocol today), the Jazz almost assuredly win game 6. Then game 7 is played in SLC, with Scottie Pippen playing injured.
In short: two crucial calls made correctly likely results in the Jazz winning the '98 title [and Malone winning FMVP]==>both of these things likely occurring even without any improvement in Malone's performance in said Finals.

If that had taken place, I don't think anyone would blink at someone ranking Karl Malone in the top 10-11 all-time. Because honestly: we'd be looking at the 3rd-leading scorer of all-time (with a couple of the higher/highest rs TS Added on record, iirc), who's also top 10 [I think] in rebounds, high(ish) ranked in steals and assists, who was also awarded All-Defensive honours, twice MVP of the league, a gigantic smattering of All-Star and All-NBA nods, and then a proven leader of a championship team. Almost no one would vehemently argue against such placement of that broad-strokes resume.

But because the refs did blow those calls and the Jazz lost, I'm perpetually among the contingent that vociferously argues [usually without success] to even garner him serious top 15 consideration. Alas....

Nominations not relevant to this particular thread, but for the sake of discussion…

I mostly agree. I have Malone at #17, and I could more easily argue him at #14 than I could argue him down to #20.

But all the same: in Game 1 of that Finals, he goes 9 for 25 but the Jazz win by three points anyway. He is 5 of 16 when his team loses by five points in Game 2, scoring one point during the Bulls’ fourth quarter comeback. He is part of his team scoring 54 total points in Game 3. He is inefficient in a four-point loss in Game 4 (now down 3-1 and lucky to have not been swept). From there, he has a great final two games, but now they have no margin for error or poor refereeing. They could have won with a fairer call. They also could have choked in Game 7 anyway, and they could have won the series in five games if Malone had played better from the start.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#37 » by One_and_Done » Mon Aug 7, 2023 9:18 pm

Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:VOTE: Kobe Bryant

Kobe is very likely NOT a top 20 peak for me. He might barely be a fringe top-25 peak, actually (I'm pretty comfortable saying he's at least in my top 30 peaks). However, he's got MULTIPLE seasons which could [not always for the same reasons] be argued as his "peak season".......which means he's got multiple years playing at that fringe top-25(ish) [all-time] level. And he's got an "extended prime" that lasts 13 durable seasons. Compared to Curry, for example, Kobe's PRIME is like 90 or so additional games and >7k more minutes, iirc, than Curry's entire career (and not all of that is prime for Steph). His prime has similar advantage in length/availability compared to Bird's career, too.
And there are about 3 other seasons that are [imo] value-adding for Kobe.

That's adds up to a substantial amount of on-court career value (and recall: I'm a career value above RP type of guy).
Obviously his resume in terms of team success and media accolades [for whatever it's worth] speaks for itself. And he was [like Bird and Curry, among other current candidates] one of those players that drove global popularity of the game (and the NBA product); which, in turn, drives salaries, player pools, and general competitiveness of the league. He was, in fact, a global icon that transcended just basketball [fwiw].

I hope that will suffice for now as argumentation.

Re-iterating some of these same points, I'll quote myself from another recent thread:

trex_8063 wrote:Well, personally I don't anymore.
I used to rank Bird ahead, but I hit a point where I began to feel I put him higher simply because I wanted to, for nostalgia's sake (because I "liked" Bird more, appreciated his career more).
However, it wasn't so clear or easily justified if being honest about my criteria.

Did Bird have greater impact? I suspect he may have, but not by a substantial margin. For more information, I believe there is some data pertaining to both players presented within the bowels of the #9 thread of the current top 100 project.

For my part, I do think Bird peaked a little higher. If I'm comparing "average prime years", I think Bird's are a little better, even though Kobe is a touch more playoff-resilient, fwiw.

However, as I've established for years and years, I'm a total career value [above replacement] kind of guy when it comes to player evaluations (beginning to incorporate a touch of CORP principle, too). And Kobe sort of destroys Bird on the longevity/durability spectrum, which becomes awfully relevant to such an approach.

Take what I might call Kobe's "extended prime" (a slightly liberal view of what might be called "prime" years), what I'd gauge to be '01-'13....

That's 13 seasons (the length of Bird's ENTIRE career). I've just got through saying I think Bird's average prime year is better than Kobe's average prime year; but those 13 years include some of Bird's NON-prime, too. In his full-career avg season, is he better than an average PRIME season of Kobe? Maybe, maybe not. If it is, we're certainly not talking about a notable margin, imo.

And that's before giving recognition to the fact that from '01-'13 Kobe played 76 more games and nearly 3400 more minutes than Bird did [in his whole career]. In short: in terms of availability, Kobe's got ~1 full season more PRIME games/minutes played than Bird played in his whole career.

And Kobe's got some additional value added from '98-'00, too ('97 and '14-'16 are of no consequence to me).


In light of all that, I hit a point where I had a great deal of difficulty putting Bird's 13 years [really it's only 12] ahead of all that [16 years] of relevant Kobe seasons. For awhile [even after recognizing that], I justified keeping Bird ahead by telling myself that Bird was "bigger/more important for the game", "more iconic" than Kobe.

The thing that dispelled that notion was Kobe's death, watching the world react. Realistically, I should have known after the summer of '08 [the Redeem Team]. That spectacle made it clear that Kobe's persona transcended just the sport; he was a cultural touchstone, in a global sense. But somehow I missed it (or simply denied it) until his death.

So, no longer having that "excuse", I made the switch. In a way it was liberating. I stopped playing favourites, stopped bowing to a long-established hierarchy I'd established in my mind [e.g. "Bird cannot go lower than X place..."], and the world didn't end.


EDIT: And with Bird no longer even being in the way, Kobe is my clear choice.


Alternate: Dirk Nowitzki (for now; could see switching to Robinson)
Nomination: Karl Malone


I hope to make a longer post about the Mailman at some point, but I never know if I'll get the chance at this point.
One thing I can't help thinking about when it comes to ranking Karl Malone is that if the refs don't blow two shotclock calls in game 6 ['98] (or if they DID blow them in real-time, but were allowed video review--->as would be mandated protocol today), the Jazz almost assuredly win game 6. Then game 7 is played in SLC, with Scottie Pippen playing injured.
In short: two crucial calls made correctly likely results in the Jazz winning the '98 title [and Malone winning FMVP]==>both of these things likely occurring even without any improvement in Malone's performance in said Finals.

If that had taken place, I don't think anyone would blink at someone ranking Karl Malone in the top 10-11 all-time. Because honestly: we'd be looking at the 3rd-leading scorer of all-time (with a couple of the higher/highest rs TS Added on record, iirc), who's also top 10 [I think] in rebounds, high(ish) ranked in steals and assists, who was also awarded All-Defensive honours, twice MVP of the league, a gigantic smattering of All-Star and All-NBA nods, and then a proven leader of a championship team. Almost no one would vehemently argue against such placement of that broad-strokes resume.

But because the refs did blow those calls and the Jazz lost, I'm perpetually among the contingent that vociferously argues [usually without success] to even garner him serious top 15 consideration. Alas....


Would you have Mailman over Kobe?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#38 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 7, 2023 9:30 pm

Gibson22 wrote:Generally, I would like to hear a little bit more about kobe vs oscar, kobe vs west by the kobe voters. Sorry If im focusing on kobe (which i don't hate, and believe that has more of an argument about a few guys that were already selected than over those 2) but he's the clear favorite, and he's also more comparable since they are 3 guards around the same size. Also generally, I don't know if it's totally understood how west is as good defensively as any other guard in history, and how oscar does have an argument for being best offensive player ever and is for sure a tier 1 offensive player ever

I think Kobe had more impressive accomplishments than West, played at a superstar level for longer and was more durable than West, and would replace West in the 1960s/70s better than West could replace him in the 2000s/10s. In tandem, that basically makes West an impossible sell for me.

I am more open to Oscar because of the durability aspect, because I am more impressed by what he was able to accomplish with the Royals, and because he is more positionally distinct from Kobe, but ultimately I value what Kobe proved in his league more rather than relying on some sense of uncertainty of what Oscar could have done in other circumstances.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#39 » by cupcakesnake » Mon Aug 7, 2023 9:54 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:Vote for #13: Kobe Bryant
Alternate Vote: Jerry West

Nomination: Moses Malone
Alternate Nomination: Nikola Jokic

Kobe Bryant

The reasoning for my vote for Kobe Bryant is pretty simple to be honest. At this point, there’s just a big achievement gap between him and everyone else (besides Mikan, who just is too much of a dinosaur of basketball history for me to vote for at this point). As the #1 player on a team, he won 2 titles and made the finals another time, despite his team not being all *that* talented. And, while he wasn’t the #1 player on the three-peat Lakers, he was still a major part of it, and I put a good deal of weight on just how good the 2001 Lakers were, since it shows that obviously Kobe could be a major part of an all-time-level team.

I just don’t really see much of a case for the other guys when you look through a lens in which achievement in the game is a major part of the puzzle for a player’s greatness (which I do). Dirk got one title as a #1 player and that was very impressive, but it was just one and the rest of his career was mostly spent with varying degrees of playoff underachievement. Oscar Robertson has a title as the #2 on an all-time-level team, so that’s equivalent to Kobe in 2001, but he didn’t win a title as the #1 player, and he also wasn’t able to get more than one title with Kareem. Jerry West was great, but only managed to actually get one title, despite tons of chances, including in years where his team was probably the most talented. David Robinson never got a title as the clear #1 player (though I understand there’s some debate whether he was at Duncan’s level in 1999), and one of his two titles was legitimately as a role player. Meanwhile, while Mikan has the team achievement, I just can’t vote for someone from his era yet, since I just don’t regard that era of basketball as having been equivalent. Mikan was basically just before my cutoff where I’m willing to consider players in mostly era-relative terms.

I realize that this is mostly a “ringz” argument, but ultimately the game is about winning titles, and so if we’re determining who were the greatest players, that has to be a major element of the equation, such that a huge gap in this regard can be determinative. Would Kobe have necessarily won more in some of these other players’ situations? Maybe not. I don’t know. But these players’ careers are what they are, and, to some degree a player’s “greatness” in team sports comes down to luck of what team they were on. Whether it’s because he was a better player or just had luckier situations, I think Kobe Bryant was ultimately “greater” than the other nominees.



I'm not trying to control the criteria here, but for projects like this I don't care very much about achievements. The achievements are the things we already know and are undebatable: who won the game, who won the championship, who got how many media votes.

There's not much doubt that Kobe is one of the most decorated careers ever, but does that mean he was one of the best players in terms of impact on winning? Maybe he was, but I'm not using achievements to determine that.

I look at Kobe (along with Bird, Duncan, Magic, Russell, Shaq, Curry) as being all-time great players with very good career fortune. They all have a type of career where they either walked into a winning environment, and/or got to spend the majority of their careers in a winning environmeny (which they of course helped create and sustain). On the opposite end we Hakeem, KG, Wilt, West etc. as with murkier "achievements" because they played in less ideal circumstances throughout their careers. The winning bias is hard to weigh.

I more want to figure out "impact" than argue "greatness". I don't really believe in the later.


I think there’s room for disagreement on approach here. I think someone can take a view that their criteria is just looking at what impact they think the player had or would have on teams, regardless of titles won or whatever. But the guidelines for the project do also say we should take into account “competitive achievement,” so I think it’s also well within the bounds of things to weigh team achievements highly.

And, to be clear, my votes are not just based on team achievements. I’ve voted players that won fewer titles above players who won more, and my arguments have included quite a lot of information and reasoning that is about a lot of other stuff. Impact on the court certainly matters to me a lot—and I’ve talked about it as much as anyone! To me, though, there just comes a point when there’s *such* a difference in “competitive achievement” that it basically has to outweigh other stuff and functionally becomes dispositive. And, for me, in this particular vote, that comes into play, because Kobe is just on a different plane from the other guys in that regard (minus Mikan, who I’m not voting for for other reasons). It also came into play for me when voting Bill Russell above some guys I’m not convinced he was a better basketball player than.


I know that you haven't been basing your voting on this before, and I'm not trying to gatekeep or control how people vote.

I think it just bears special scrutiny with Bryant because I feel strongly that his individual accolades do not accurately portray the impact of the player. The man was insanely popular so he made the all-star team no matter what. He made it as a 15ppg young whippersnapper, in 2014 despite being injured and missing the entire season, and he made it in his final 2 years despite being far from all-star level. There's the matter of his all-defense selections painting him as the greatest defensive guard of all-time, despite most people arguing whether he was above or below average in terms of impact. He won 5 championships, but was the clear #2 for the first 3, which matter when comparing him to everyone else in this range (Kareem and Magic are the other ones I think you can nitpick their championship carry jobs). I even think his second Finals MVP deserved more scrutiny at the time (I know Kobe haters have gone after this one since). Kobe got a lot of benefit of the doubt in terms of individual accolades over his career.

I think that Kobe's accolades and Kobe's impact tell very different stories, so in my opinion he's a bad player to over index on achievements for.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#40 » by Owly » Mon Aug 7, 2023 10:03 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Gibson22 wrote:Generally, I would like to hear a little bit more about kobe vs oscar, kobe vs west by the kobe voters. Sorry If im focusing on kobe (which i don't hate, and believe that has more of an argument about a few guys that were already selected than over those 2) but he's the clear favorite, and he's also more comparable since they are 3 guards around the same size. Also generally, I don't know if it's totally understood how west is as good defensively as any other guard in history, and how oscar does have an argument for being best offensive player ever and is for sure a tier 1 offensive player ever


To me, it seems like:

Defense: West > Kobe > Oscar
Passing/playmaking: Oscar > West > Kobe

The thing that’s hard to gauge is the scoring. Oscar’s volume doesn’t quite measure up to West and Kobe, but he has the best efficiency. Meanwhile, I feel Iike due to era, Kobe actually has an advantage when it comes to scoring since all three are very good shooters with Kobe actually being the worst shooter of the bunch and Kobe played in the 3-point era. Also, a large part of the reason that Oscar didn’t score as much is because he was so focused on passing and finding people. I feel like all 3 are pretty close with maybe a slight edge to West.

So basically, it seems like West beats Kobe in all 3 phases of the game while Oscar’s passing/playmaking, rebounding, and health/longevity give Oscar a slight edge over West.

BUT I hear you saying, didn’t Kobe have a huge edge in longevity? Yes and no. Comparing West and Oscar’s 14 year careers to Kobe’s best 14 years leads to the preceding analysis. Did Kobe provide any value after 2013? I’d say unequivocally no. Like if a peak season from one of these guys is worth 60 points, IDK if Kobe’s 2014-2016 seasons would even be worth 1 and even in 2013, he had an injury that caused him to miss the playoffs. Well, how about before 2000? We’ve got 2 years where he comes off the bench and has a negative BPM in the playoffs, and then another year (‘99) where he’s like…. a good starter? So at most you get 15 valuable seasons out of Kobe compared to 14 for Oscar and West with West having 2 playoff injuries and Kobe having 1. I think you could actually make a case for Oscar > Kobe in terms of meaningful longevity. Realistically, they’re probably in a virtual tie with both having an edge over West there.

In terms of scoring value aggregating efficiency and volume ... one angle here ...
Now TS add will be affected by pace, by number of games (not a constant), by health etc It is only regular season. That said the top 10 seasons between West and Robertson go
Robertson 1963-64 392.5
West 1964-65 374.3
West 1965-66 373.3
Robertson 1966-67 369.7
Robertson 1962-63 366.2
Robertson 1960-61 335.1
Robertson 1964-65 334.7
Robertson 1961-62 331.7
Robertson 1965-66 324.2
Robertson 1968-69 297.8
Robertson has 11th too before West takes a bunch.

Career it's
Robertson: 3519.4
West: 2686.6
(both very good)

It's overshadowed because TS% wasn't a thing back then and his triple doubles became his thing (after the fact) and Wilt was the field goal efficiency guy but in terms of combining efficiency and volume as a guard ... Robertson was a monster.

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