RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Jerry West)

Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ

lessthanjake
Analyst
Posts: 3,342
And1: 3,006
Joined: Apr 13, 2013

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#21 » by lessthanjake » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:31 pm

AEnigma wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:West probably upped his game even more in the playoffs, as compared to Oscar—which contributed to the Lakers getting to all those finals, even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there.

West literally never beat a team with a higher SRS, and the only team he ever beat on the road was the 0.3 SRS 1970 Hawks (after Wilt missed the entire regular season for the Lakers). He played exactly to his conference expectations.


Yeah, I’m more talking about West’s individual level of play in the playoffs.

The reference to them making the finals “even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there,” is perhaps refuted a bit by them not beating higher SRS teams. But they did also pretty consistently beat teams that had fairly similar but a bit lower SRS. They’re an SRS favorite in each of those, but the chances of winning those as often as they did in the 1960s is not actually all that probable (indeed, other higher SRS teams would get upset, which is part of why the Lakers could frequently make the finals without an SRS upset, despite not having the 2nd highest SRS). West’s playoff performance does play some role in that. That said, we aren’t talking about a Michael Jordan level playoff god or something—if we were then maybe I’d have voted for West earlier.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#22 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:32 pm

rk2023 wrote:I find the notion D. Robinson peaked over the likes of West and Robertson a hard sell (let alone Mikan).


Top seasons by PER (all nominated players)
Robinson 30.7
Robinson 29.4
Robinson 29.1

Mikan 29.0
Mikan 28.5
Nowitzki 28.1
Robinson 27.8
Oscar 27.6
Nowtizki 27.6
Robinson 27.4
Oscar 26.7
Oscar 26.2
Nowitzki 26.1
Oscar 25.9
Nowitzki 25.6
Oscar 25.5
Oscar 25.2
West 25.0

Top seasons by WS/48 (all nominated players)
Robinson .296
Robinson .290

Nowitzki .275
Oscar .278
Nowitzki .275
Robinson .273
Robinson .269

Mikan .268
Robinson .264
Mikan .264
Robinson .261
West .261


In both cases, I listed the best West season and all seasons that beat it. I know people don't like PER, but these are the only measures where we can compare all nominated players since BPM and impact stats didn't exist yet for most of the players we're comparing. And again, measures like PER and WS/48 are always going to underrate Robinson and never overrate him because of his elite, elite defense! He has some of the best non-box impact of all-time! It's very telling that his statistical peak is even more dominant than Mikan. This is the team that Mikan played on:

Image

Not only are they very.... pale, but look how the 6'10" Mikan towers over the rest of his teammates. He was playing against laughable competition and he still couldn't dominate to the level that D-Rob dominated a league with Michael Jordan and Shaq both in their primes. And FWIW, if you want to use playoff numbers, Robinson actually had a higher PER in the '96 playoffs than any season from anyone currently nominated except for '54 Mikan.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,828
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#23 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:34 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
1976 RS Erving: 34.4 pp 100, 12.9 r, 5.9 a, 116 Or

Giannis 2019-23 – 42.6 pp100, 17.6 rp100, 8.4 ap100, 120 Ortg/103 Drtg, 625 TS%

D.Rob (pre-Duncan) prime 90-96 – 33.9 pp100, 15.6 rp100, 4.1 ap100, 118 Ortg/97 Drtg, 592 TS%

Dirk (post-Nash) prime 2005-11 RS – 35.7 pp100, 12.1 rp100, 4.2 ap100, 119 Ortg/104 Drtg, 586 TS%.

Kobe (post-Shaq) prime 2006-10 RS – 39.2 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.6ap100, 114 Ortg/106 Drtg, 565 TS%

How about playoffs?

Giannis 19-23: 39 pp100, 17.8 rp100, 7.5 apg, 113 Ortg/ 102 Drtg 580 TS%

D.Rob 90-96: 31.6 pp100, 15.5 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 113 Ortg/101 Drtg 557 TS%

Dirk 05-11: 34.3 pp100, 13.3 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 119 Ortg/107 Drtg, 586 TS%

Kobe 06-10: 38.1 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.9 ap100, 114 Ortg/108 Drtg, 570 TS%

So the first observation is that Giannis is the best of the bunch and it’s not close. The only reason not to take him yet is if you don’t think he has “enough” longevity. He isn’t just a force offensively, he’s one of the best defensive players you could have in the modern era. Defense is something that’s hard to measure, but I think we can all agree D.Rob and Giannis are 2 of the best defensive players ever. Then on the other end they’d only need to be solid to be in discussion here. But they’re not just solid. Giannis is flat out better than the rest on offense, and while D.Rob is the “worst” of the 4 in the playoffs on O, he’s still close enough that I don’t know that the others have much of a case over him given his all-time defensive anchoring ability. If you’re taking Dirk or Kobe it’s got to be on longevity. Kobe looks the worst on balance by far. He’s 2nd of the group on volume scoring, but he does it by having bad efficiency which is probably part of why his TS% is the worst of anyone except playoffs D.Rob, and his Ortg is the worst of the bunch on balance (because regular season isn’t worthless, your performance there adds a lot of value). Then factor in this is literally Kobe’s very best stretch. If we’d run this from 00-10 for instance, he’d look so much worse (see above comparison with KD).

Dirk’s high end run in the 2011 playoffs is a level of impact neither D.Rob nor Kobe had during a singular playoff run, putting up 39.1 pp100, 11.5 rp100, 3.6 ap100 on 115 Ortg/105 Drtg, and 609 TS% while taking out Kobe’s Lakers, KD’s Thunder, and Blazers, and the first incarnation of the Heatles, is crazy impressive. Yeh, they’d have gone down to the 2012 Heatles once they balanced the team a little and figured out the line-ups to play, etc, but nobody expected them to win that year. They weren’t even supposed to beat the Lakers, and they ka-rushed them. Check out the stat-line of 32 year old Kobe v.s 32 year old Dirk. It’s not pretty. Kobe had 23.3 ppg, 3rpg, 2.5 apg on 519 TS%, v.s Dirk’s 25.3ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5apg on an insane 673 TS%.

[/spoiler]




If longevity isn't that important to you and modernity is very important, shouldn't Jokic get nominated over Giannis? Jokic is the better player in the most modern seasons.

Actually in terms of longevity, I don't really think Giannis even has a better argument. They're both around the same age. Giannis was in the league two years longer but was also not a good player the first two years. Jokic was a good player in his rookie season and was underplayed (he should have been rookie of the year but was underpublicized, he had the best stats out of all the rookie contenders by a good amount).

Jokic has been a good player way longer than his general perception, and has been an MVP caliber player longer than his general perception, and has been the best player way longer than his general perception (it's basically this year where doubters of him have to concede).


Why do you put Giannis over Jokic?
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,359
And1: 5,639
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#24 » by One_and_Done » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:41 pm

Jokic doesn't have enough longevity, and I flat out think Kawhi, KD and Giannis are all better than him. The Nuggets got lucky this year with a weak contender pool. If they win again I'll rethink things, but I'd bet on them losing before the finals next year.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#25 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:44 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
1976 RS Erving: 34.4 pp 100, 12.9 r, 5.9 a, 116 Or

Giannis 2019-23 – 42.6 pp100, 17.6 rp100, 8.4 ap100, 120 Ortg/103 Drtg, 625 TS%

D.Rob (pre-Duncan) prime 90-96 – 33.9 pp100, 15.6 rp100, 4.1 ap100, 118 Ortg/97 Drtg, 592 TS%

Dirk (post-Nash) prime 2005-11 RS – 35.7 pp100, 12.1 rp100, 4.2 ap100, 119 Ortg/104 Drtg, 586 TS%.

Kobe (post-Shaq) prime 2006-10 RS – 39.2 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.6ap100, 114 Ortg/106 Drtg, 565 TS%

How about playoffs?

Giannis 19-23: 39 pp100, 17.8 rp100, 7.5 apg, 113 Ortg/ 102 Drtg 580 TS%

D.Rob 90-96: 31.6 pp100, 15.5 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 113 Ortg/101 Drtg 557 TS%

Dirk 05-11: 34.3 pp100, 13.3 rp100, 3.9 ap100, 119 Ortg/107 Drtg, 586 TS%

Kobe 06-10: 38.1 pp100, 7.3 rp100, 6.9 ap100, 114 Ortg/108 Drtg, 570 TS%

So the first observation is that Giannis is the best of the bunch and it’s not close. The only reason not to take him yet is if you don’t think he has “enough” longevity. He isn’t just a force offensively, he’s one of the best defensive players you could have in the modern era. Defense is something that’s hard to measure, but I think we can all agree D.Rob and Giannis are 2 of the best defensive players ever. Then on the other end they’d only need to be solid to be in discussion here. But they’re not just solid. Giannis is flat out better than the rest on offense, and while D.Rob is the “worst” of the 4 in the playoffs on O, he’s still close enough that I don’t know that the others have much of a case over him given his all-time defensive anchoring ability. If you’re taking Dirk or Kobe it’s got to be on longevity. Kobe looks the worst on balance by far. He’s 2nd of the group on volume scoring, but he does it by having bad efficiency which is probably part of why his TS% is the worst of anyone except playoffs D.Rob, and his Ortg is the worst of the bunch on balance (because regular season isn’t worthless, your performance there adds a lot of value). Then factor in this is literally Kobe’s very best stretch. If we’d run this from 00-10 for instance, he’d look so much worse (see above comparison with KD).

Dirk’s high end run in the 2011 playoffs is a level of impact neither D.Rob nor Kobe had during a singular playoff run, putting up 39.1 pp100, 11.5 rp100, 3.6 ap100 on 115 Ortg/105 Drtg, and 609 TS% while taking out Kobe’s Lakers, KD’s Thunder, and Blazers, and the first incarnation of the Heatles, is crazy impressive. Yeh, they’d have gone down to the 2012 Heatles once they balanced the team a little and figured out the line-ups to play, etc, but nobody expected them to win that year. They weren’t even supposed to beat the Lakers, and they ka-rushed them. Check out the stat-line of 32 year old Kobe v.s 32 year old Dirk. It’s not pretty. Kobe had 23.3 ppg, 3rpg, 2.5 apg on 519 TS%, v.s Dirk’s 25.3ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5apg on an insane 673 TS%.

[/spoiler]




If longevity isn't that important to you and modernity is very important, shouldn't Jokic get nominated over Giannis? Jokic is the better player in the most modern seasons.

Actually in terms of longevity, I don't really think Giannis even has a better argument. They're both around the same age. Giannis was in the league two years longer but was also not a good player the first two years. Jokic was a good player in his rookie season and was underplayed (he should have been rookie of the year but was underpublicized, he had the best stats out of all the rookie contenders by a good amount).

Jokic has been a good player way longer than his general perception, and has been an MVP caliber player longer than his general perception, and has been the best player way longer than his general perception (it's basically this year where doubters of him have to concede).


Why do you put Giannis over Jokic?


Personally, I nominated Giannis ahead of Jokic and I..... don't have a good answer for this. Jokic actually has a higher career VORP in 596 games than Giannis does in 719 games and he has a higher career playoff VORP in 68 games than Giannis does in 79. The only area where Giannis has a meaningful edge is in playoff on/off. I might have to re-evaluate this.

Honestly, having Giannis > Jokic after this playoff run never really sat right with me, but I already had him top 10 and it seemed like a big jump to move Jokic up that far that fast, especially since he's my favorite player and I didn't want to be biased. Also, it's easy to say Giannis > Russell since he's a 2-way superstar and Russell's not while saying Jokic > Russell is a little weird since they're both one way guys. I'll think on this though, I probably am going to need to make some changes to fix this.
User avatar
eminence
RealGM
Posts: 17,050
And1: 11,863
Joined: Mar 07, 2015

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#26 » by eminence » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:46 pm

Mikan's minimum WS/48 numbers from his earlier years soundly beat his numbers after minutes become available. If we assigned him 48 mpg (unlikely), his WS/48 for '49-'51: 0.348, 0.310, 0.344.
I bought a boat.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#27 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:48 pm

One_and_Done wrote:Jokic doesn't have enough longevity, and I flat out think Kawhi, KD and Giannis are all better than him. The Nuggets got lucky this year with a weak contender pool. If they win again I'll rethink things, but I'd bet on them losing before the finals next year.


Giannis was garbage his first 2 seasons and since then, Jokic has played more games and minutes due to better health with 0 playoff injuries to 3 for Giannis. Longevity is not any sort of significant advantage for Giannis over Jokic.
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,976
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#28 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:50 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:West probably upped his game even more in the playoffs, as compared to Oscar—which contributed to the Lakers getting to all those finals, even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there.

West literally never beat a team with a higher SRS, and the only team he ever beat on the road was the 0.3 SRS 1970 Hawks (after Wilt missed the entire regular season for the Lakers). He played exactly to his conference expectations.


Yeah, I’m more talking about West’s individual level of play in the playoffs.

The reference to them making the finals “even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there,” is perhaps refuted a bit by them not beating higher SRS teams. But they did also pretty consistently beat teams that had fairly similar but a bit lower SRS. They’re an SRS favorite in each of those, but the chances of winning those as often as they did in the 1960s is not actually all that probable (indeed, other higher SRS teams would get upset, which is part of why the Lakers could frequently make the finals without an SRS upset, despite not having the 2nd highest SRS).

That happened once, in 1965. No, they made the Finals because all the better SRS teams were in the other conference.

West’s playoff performance does play some role in that. That said, we aren’t talking about a Michael Jordan level playoff god or something—if we were then maybe I’d have voted for West earlier.

I don’t know, West is more of a playoff riser than Jordan was per f4p’s BBRef postseason change calculation, and he was a better defender, shooter, passer, and playmaker relative to his era. Problem was more that he played in a league with better teams and usually a better player waiting for him in the Finals. None of that was in his control.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#29 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:54 pm

eminence wrote:Mikan's minimum WS/48 numbers from his earlier years soundly beat his numbers after minutes become available. If we assigned him 48 mpg (unlikely), his WS/48 for '49-'51: 0.348, 0.310, 0.344.


OK, this still doesn’t impress me much though. If anything, it just shows how poor the competition was to start and how quickly it was getting better that he could dominate the really short white guys the first 2 years the NBA existed so much more than the slightly taller short white guys a couple years later. He was only 27 when MPG data first became available, it’s not like he was in decline.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,828
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#30 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:05 pm

Giannis and Joker are peers and MVP rivals. How could Giannis have better longevity by any relevant amount?

They're nearly the same age. Jokic has also been healthier and plays more games on average.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,359
And1: 5,639
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#31 » by One_and_Done » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:09 pm

When did Jokic become an all-nba player/MV0 candidate? When did Giannis? There's your answer.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#32 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:13 pm

So I just searched “Minneapolis Finals” on YouTube and this was the first result that came up. I challenge anyone who’s voting for Mikan to watch this and see if you really think he’s on the level of D-Rob or Dirk:

lessthanjake
Analyst
Posts: 3,342
And1: 3,006
Joined: Apr 13, 2013

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#33 » by lessthanjake » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:15 pm

AEnigma wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
AEnigma wrote:West literally never beat a team with a higher SRS, and the only team he ever beat on the road was the 0.3 SRS 1970 Hawks (after Wilt missed the entire regular season for the Lakers). He played exactly to his conference expectations.


Yeah, I’m more talking about West’s individual level of play in the playoffs.

The reference to them making the finals “even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there,” is perhaps refuted a bit by them not beating higher SRS teams. But they did also pretty consistently beat teams that had fairly similar but a bit lower SRS. They’re an SRS favorite in each of those, but the chances of winning those as often as they did in the 1960s is not actually all that probable (indeed, other higher SRS teams would get upset, which is part of why the Lakers could frequently make the finals without an SRS upset, despite not having the 2nd highest SRS).

That happened once, in 1965. No, they made the Finals because all the better SRS teams were in the other conference.


That’s not exactly true. Just off the top of my head, it happened in 1963 as well (i.e. “it” being the #2 SRS team in the NBA being upset before they reached the Celtics). There’s virtue in consistently not being upset as an SRS favorite, when you’re not typically a big SRS favorite. It’s not guaranteed, and that’s my point. Consistently getting through as a (usually somewhat minor) SRS favorite is indicative of something. And with how well West played in the playoffs, I think it’s reasonable to think it’s at least in part indicative of his ability in the playoffs.

West’s playoff performance does play some role in that. That said, we aren’t talking about a Michael Jordan level playoff god or something—if we were then maybe I’d have voted for West earlier.

I don’t know, West is more of a playoff riser than Jordan was per f4p’s BBRef postseason change calculation, and he was a better defender, shooter, passer, and playmaker relative to his era. Problem was more that he played in a league with better teams and usually a better player waiting for him in the Finals. None of that was in his control.


West may well have been more of a playoff riser (not sure that’s really right but don’t care enough to argue), but he wasn’t rising from the same place. Michael Jordan was a better basketball player than Jerry West and was a better basketball player in the playoffs than Jerry West. But Jerry West was very good in the playoffs, and I think was better than Oscar Robertson in the playoffs, which is what is most relevant here. I don’t see much of anything separating the two guys, and that seems like the one thing I can see that separates them.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,828
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#34 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:16 pm

One_and_Done wrote:When did Jokic become an all-nba player/MV0 candidate? When did Giannis? There's your answer.


I already know what your reply will be, but it was probably 2018. For Giannis it was 2017.


I don't really get how you think Giannis has been a better player so much longer. Giannis was pushed and acknowledged as a phenom earlier in their careers while Jokic was more of the "underground" good guy.

You probably are overlooking how good Jokic was before he started to become MVP, or maybe you were one of those guys who thought he was not good when he was younger and are doubling down on him as he is continuing to deliver incredibly impressive seasons.



Thinking Giannis is better than Jokic, okay, sure. Giannis has much better longevity? If you look into it, it doesn't make much sense.

They are 1-2 years apart in age. Giannis joined the NBA earlier because his potential made him a more coveted prospect and he also had no money. Giannis was not a good player at all, in part because he was too raw. Jokic was a good player right away, and was the best player of his rookie class (he was better than Towns and Porzingis who the media covered as the ROY battle).

Cumulatively, Jokic has had more seasons and more games as a "good player" than Giannis (good defined as a player who can contribute high minutes to a competitive team).

Their primes are roughly the same length, perhaps Giannis is a season longer, but Jokic has played more games during that time so it would even out regardless.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,133
And1: 25,419
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#35 » by 70sFan » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:16 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:He was playing against laughable competition and he still couldn't dominate to the level that D-Rob dominated a league with Michael Jordan and Shaq both in their primes.

You have a strange definition of "domination" if you really believe that.

I can understand that people have reservations regarding Mikan. Robinson didn't dominate his era though, Mikan did.


And FWIW, if you want to use playoff numbers, Robinson actually had a higher PER in the '96 playoffs than any season from anyone currently nominated except for '54 Mikan.

Yeah, that's meaningless considering that Mikan led his team to one of the most absurd stretch of domination in the league history, while Robinson padded his stats in the first round and then collapsed against a team that didn't even reach the finals...

I always find it strange how people think Robinson's best postseason run was in 1996 because of counting stats. He played far better the year before, he just didn't have half of his games against garbage Suns defense.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#36 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:22 pm

One_and_Done wrote:When did Jokic become an all-nba player/MV0 candidate? When did Giannis? There's your answer.


Giannis was first voted all-NBA in 2017. Jokic was in 2019. Here are their respective stats for the 2 seasons where Giannis was voted all-NBA and Jokic wasn't:

Giannis: 26.7 PER on .599 TS%, .209 WS/48, 6.7 BPM, +6.3 on/off, 5.3 RAPTOR
Jokic: 25.3 PER on .620 TS%, .219 WS/48, 7.1 BPM, +10.8 on/off, 6.3 RAPTOR

You're really going to tell me that those seasons are so disparate that Giannis's count for "longevity" and Jokic's don't? Honestly, Joker's statistical profile looks better. Giannis got to play in the postseason because he had better teammates in a worse conference, but Denver and Milwaukee actually had identical 86-78 regular season records over that span.
HeartBreakKid
RealGM
Posts: 22,395
And1: 18,828
Joined: Mar 08, 2012
     

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#37 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:24 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:When did Jokic become an all-nba player/MV0 candidate? When did Giannis? There's your answer.


Giannis was first voted all-NBA in 2017. Jokic was in 2019. Here are their respective stats for the 2 seasons where Giannis was voted all-NBA and Jokic wasn't:

Giannis: 26.7 PER on .599 TS%, .209 WS/48, 6.7 BPM, +6.3 on/off, 5.3 RAPTOR
Jokic: 25.3 PER on .620 TS%, .219 WS/48, 7.1 BPM, +10.8 on/off, 6.3 RAPTOR

You're really going to tell me that those seasons are so disparate that Giannis's count for "longevity" and Jokic's don't? Honestly, Joker's statistical profile looks better. Giannis got to play in the postseason because he had better teammates in a worse conference, but Denver and Milwaukee actually had identical 86-78 regular season records over that span.


Indeed, and there is a notable pattern that the media is always a bit late on Jokic. So really, they both became top players around the same time. Jokic was an all-nba caliber player even if he did not get the award. Would love to see a comparison of him to some of the players from that time and how he is not at least a third teamer.


This reminds me a lot of how people think Steph Curry did not become a great player until 2015, when he had been for two full seasons prior to that.
User avatar
eminence
RealGM
Posts: 17,050
And1: 11,863
Joined: Mar 07, 2015

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#38 » by eminence » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:25 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
eminence wrote:Mikan's minimum WS/48 numbers from his earlier years soundly beat his numbers after minutes become available. If we assigned him 48 mpg (unlikely), his WS/48 for '49-'51: 0.348, 0.310, 0.344.


OK, this still doesn’t impress me much though. If anything, it just shows how poor the competition was to start and how quickly it was getting better that he could dominate the really short white guys the first 2 years the NBA existed so much more than the slightly taller short white guys a couple years later. He was only 27 when MPG data first became available, it’s not like he was in decline.


I'd say the statistical decline was largely due to the lane widening, though the leg break didn't help I'm sure.

Would Mikan doing well vs the best black competition of the day do anything for you (career 7-3 vs the Trotters, played a few other squads, though I don't remember records off the top). 5-2 with the Lakers, 2-1 with the OG Celtics in a tournament in Hawaii to show off the game (team was dubbed the 'Mikan Allstars' for the event)
I bought a boat.
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,976
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#39 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:31 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
Yeah, I’m more talking about West’s individual level of play in the playoffs.

The reference to them making the finals “even in seasons where their regular season performance wouldn’t make you think they’d get there,” is perhaps refuted a bit by them not beating higher SRS teams. But they did also pretty consistently beat teams that had fairly similar but a bit lower SRS. They’re an SRS favorite in each of those, but the chances of winning those as often as they did in the 1960s is not actually all that probable (indeed, other higher SRS teams would get upset, which is part of why the Lakers could frequently make the finals without an SRS upset, despite not having the 2nd highest SRS).

That happened once, in 1965. No, they made the Finals because all the better SRS teams were in the other conference.

That’s not exactly true. Just off the top of my head, it happened in 1963 as well (i.e. “it” being the #2 SRS team in the NBA being upset before they reached the Celtics).

That was when Oscar upset the 3.8 SRS Nationals in the eastern conference. It had no bearing on the Lakers’ path at all.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,923
And1: 9,421
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #14 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/14/23) 

Post#40 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:35 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:He was playing against laughable competition and he still couldn't dominate to the level that D-Rob dominated a league with Michael Jordan and Shaq both in their primes.

You have a strange definition of "domination" if you really believe that.

I can understand that people have reservations regarding Mikan. Robinson didn't dominate his era though, Mikan did.


And FWIW, if you want to use playoff numbers, Robinson actually had a higher PER in the '96 playoffs than any season from anyone currently nominated except for '54 Mikan.

Yeah, that's meaningless considering that Mikan led his team to one of the most absurd stretch of domination in the league history, while Robinson padded his stats in the first round and then collapsed against a team that didn't even reach the finals...

I always find it strange how people think Robinson's best postseason run was in 1996 because of counting stats. He played far better the year before, he just didn't have half of his games against garbage Suns defense.


OK, Mikan dominated more in the 6 foot key years before there was enough data for rate stats because he was the tallest player in the league and he could just go stand next to the basket and stay there. Not impressed by that at all. And using "padded his numbers" and David Robinson in the same sentence is absurd. His impact on winning outpaces his box score output more than almost anyone in history. The years we have playoff on/off numbers, he beats pretty much anyone in history except Curry even though it was all post-prime.

'95's not his best playoff run because his elite, elite defense which usually had a massive impact found it's kryptonite in Hakeem. The Dream went off for 35/13/5/4 on .590 TS% and outplayed him head-to-head. Robinson played great defense against Utah. He just didn't really have a chance. I mean Game 1, he scores 29 points on .728 TS%, blocks 5 shots, and they still lose by 20. What are you gonna do about that? It has to be discouraging getting so little support.

Return to Player Comparisons