OhayoKD wrote:As for nomination...
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:rk2023 wrote:
Yeah, I think this might be a good time to refresh everyone's memories of what each of these players "failures" looked like.
Keeping in mind Giannis has made
8 post-seasons to Jokic's
5Giannis and the Bucks in the playoffs2015: lose to the bulls as a role-player
2017: Giannis becomes a fringe superstar, team sees +3 srs improvement and plays a razor-close series(<1 ppg, 6 games) vs the +3.65 srs opponent(Giannis puts up strong offensive production)
2018: Giannis is a fringe MVP candidate, team mantains in the rs, and then playes an even closer series vs +3.2 srs Boston who nearly make the finals after beating the near +4.5 srs Sixers
2019: Giannis gets a not bad coach for the first time in his career and breaks out as a historically strong MVP winner as the Bucks jump by 8 points to post a historically remarkable +8 srs team(almost never happens in non-expansion periods) despite a cast that plays at .500 without him form 19-20(and marginally above from 21-23. That team improves to
+13.75 in the playoffs on the back of a big defensive improvement. They are merely
+7 in that oh so bad 6-game(1 ppg) loss to a coasting Toronto side which saw a cast capable of 60-win basketball add Kawhi Leonard, aka, clutch Durant, aka "resiliency king". In the conference finals Giannis's offensive production falters against one of the best defenses ever but he also puts up one of the
best defensive performances ever to push a toronto side about as good as
anyone Jokic has ever faced and far better
than any team Jokic has ever beat to the brink(double-overtime and giannis fouling out prevented a 3-0 defecit).
2020: Giannis has one of the very best regular seasons ever(arguably better than any regular season from certain players who have already been voted in) and the Bucks post a
+9.41 SRS(basically unheard of in non-expansion periods) with a team that plays average basketball without Antetokounmpo. Team collapses defensively in the bubble and are upset by the eventual finalists despite Giannis's offensive production improving from last year as their defense is torched by Miami. There is injury context with Giannis eventually missing a game and 3 quarters.
2021: Giannis coasts as merely a top 3 regular season player in the regular season and the Bucks post a
+5.6 SRS(4th in the league) with a team that is a bit above .500 without him. The Bucks again get significantly better in the playoffs on the back of their defense and Giannis is good to great on both ends throughout as Giannis becomes one of the few players to win a championship...
-> without a 2nd superstar
-> without perennial all-star
-> without "help" that is significantly > .500 without him
-> without a strong playoff coach
The competition is fairly weak, but so was the support, and ultimately it's topped off with Giannis posting one of the greatest performances ever against a very good team on both ends of the floor
2022: Giannis is again, merely a top 3 regular season player, and the Bucks regress to
+3(7th best) with the big-three missing a significant number of games. Bucks are(opponent-adjusted) more than +12 against the Bulls with Middleton and take a near-champion to 7 without a middleton in a not that close series(+8 point differential). Overall Bucks improve dramatically.
again, on the back of their defense.
2023: Every contender is coasting and Giannis is again merely a top 3 regular season player as the Bucks post a 3rd best +3.61 SRS despite Middleton missing a bunch of games. Against Miami, Giannis misses almost half the series and is injured throughout. Consequently, the Bucks defense collapses as they lose to the eventual finalists(again)
8 postseasons total, 7 as a superstar, and the Bucks underperform
twice and overperform
5 times despite a deeply flawed postseason coach, a cast who generally falls off in the playoffs(shooting especially). Both underperformances have injury context and when they lose, they are mostly losing to champions or finalists,
Now let's do Jokic:
Jokic and the Nuggets in the playoffs2019 Jokic is a fringe MVP candidate and Nuggets see a
2.5 SRS improvement to post a strong
+4.13(7th best). They win a razor-close series against the
+1.8 Spurs(7 games, 1 ppg) and then lose a razor-close series(7 games, actually outscore by 1 ppg) against the +4.4 SRS Nuggets who proceed to get destroyed in a sweep against a losing-finalist. You may recall the champion that year was that Raptors side that just about survived Giannis.
2020 Jokic is again a fringe MVP candidate and the Nuggets regress to
+2.5 thanks to injuries to Jokic's best teammates. In the playoffs they get lucky against the
+2.5 Jazz winning in 7 despite getting outscored by 3-points a game. They then upset the
+6.6 Clippers in a close series(7 games, <1ppg) before getting thumped by the eventual champs(5 games, 4 ppg). You may recall the Heat, without their leading scorer and with their defensive anchor hobbled, were the only team all playoffs to take the Lakers to a 6th game.
2021 MVP Jokic leads a
+4.8 Nuggets side(6th best) despite a team that is outright bad without him. They proceed to win a razor-close series against the
+1.8 Trailblazers(6 games, actually outscored) and are then obliterated in a sweep against the
+5.5 eventual finalist Suns(15! ppg). Those suns would lose to...checks notes...Giannis's Bucks. Nuggets are bad without Jokic
2022 B2B MVP Jokic leads a
+2.15 Nuggets team(injuries play a big-factor) and then is thumped in 5 by the
+5.15 eventual champs(8 ppg).
2023 Should have been B2B2B MVP Jokic, with a team that is still bad without him in 13 games, leads the Nuggets to a
+3 srs(6th best in the league). Against a relatively weak field(though everyone coasting undersells the competition) they are dominant in the postseason going 16-6 with a m.o.v of +8. This is an all-time dominant run, but it also coincides with dramatic cast elevation and unusually favorable injury context(like Milwaukee's 2021 Run). Nonetheless as a singular note it has a decent case against anything Giannis has done considering
-> team is bad without him(in the regular-season anyway)
-> unusually dominant
-> One-superstar(Murray is close)
5 postseasons total, I think it's fair to say the Nuggets overperformed in
2 and underperformed in
2. A weaker trackrecord than Giannis's Bucks despite
-> a better playoff coach
-> teammates generally elevating(Murray arguably outplayed Jokic in 2020)
The Nuggets are also flatly a far worse regular-season and postseason team getting destroyed when they face eventual finalists and champions which Milwaukee only really do if Giannis gets hurt. When the Nuggets faced a 2019 Raptors-calibre opponent, they were crushed
despite Murray playing like a superstar. The Bucks have never suffered a defeat like the Nuggets did against the suns despite running into an eventual or defending finalist each of the last 5 playoffs.
Giannis's Bucks have also posted 2 regular-seasons where their srs nearly
doubled any of the suns and one of those regular-seasons was followed by post-season improvement and a tough fight against the type of team the nuggets tend to get dominated by.
All considered, saying Giannis has "Playoff issues" and Jokic doesn't seems like you're applying a gigantic double-standard because Jokic id a one-way player while Giannis is a two-way one. Just like when we act like Jordan was "perfect" any-run he posts sub-2009 Lebron box-aggregates or when we act like Shaq is more "unstoppable" than two-way bigs because defense doesn't matter.
Excepting their championship years, Giannis has led far better regular season and playoff teams, and has also has a significant longetivity advantage, while elevating more often. And while Jokic's regular-season impact looks great(like Giannis)...
