Old man MJ vs Old man Lebron

[mysticOscar]

You said that. Winning matters most. Russell and Mikan were more dominant in their era's than Jordan was.



Like Russell and Mikan?



Is this true? We have a whole thread [RealGM Top 100 #1 2023] explaining in grand detail why LeBron is #1. And the vote wasn't close.

Let me try to be clearer with my response.

You stated that there are no objective reason to have MJ as #1....and I'm saying that there is because of individual and team success...my context was MJ vs Lebron (due to title of thread)

You can bring up players from eras during the infancy of the league...like Russell and I have no issue with people having them as there GOAT. Mikan is a stretch since he only played so many years in the NBA.

Oh cool...so a project which is made up of a lot of LeBron fans has Lebron at #1...yeah case closed

My point is that Russell has a clearer argument for your presented argument for Jordan.

How about team and individual dominance over there peers?

Russell should be #1 then. But I have never seen a list with Russell #1 and either Jordan/Mikan #2/#3.

Those are the three players who had the most dominance over their peers by a pure title measurement.

My take on Russell is that he was born in an era with not much footage and a league that was viewed by many as not a full blown professional league.

Also Wilt was around the same time as Russell and people view him as being more individually dominant than Russell (even if its wrong to think that way)

Mikan was even older and hard to claim him as GOAT of nba when he only played a handful of years (can't remember how many) in nba

[Djoker]

It does matter to some.

There are three major groups and this isn't exact but an easy way to look at things.

Group 1: Jordan is the GOAT. He will always be my GOAT. Just look at Wade's comments recently about Jordan being "his GOAT".

No amount of statistical evidence, film study, or deeper understanding of basketball will ever change someone with this mentality.

Group 2: LeBron passed Jordan in 2018 or 2020. He surpassed Jordan, rivalled his Peak/Prime but played much longer at near-Peak levels.

This group tends to look at all the statistical evidence laid out, follows the evolution of the NBA over the years, and it open to the idea that there could be a new GOAT in 20-30 years who surpasses LeBron.

Group 3: LeBron is the GOAT. He will always be my GOAT. He is my generation's Jordan.

See reasoning for Group 1.

I don't see anyone who seriously had Jordan ahead of LeBron only for 2022 or 2023 to be the nail-in-the-coffin for the debate or the evidence needed for LeBron to supplant Jordan.

This essentially assumes that someone who “look[s] at all the statistical evidence” could not come to a conclusion that Jordan > LeBron. Which I don’t think is true at all. Like, all the groups you mention do exist, but there absolutely are also people who prefer Jordan and whose views *are* based on statistical evidence, film study, and a deep understanding of basketball (indeed, I think there’s many such people). And your post basically suggests that that doesn’t exist.

I don't believe there is a strong, objective argument to be made in favor of Jordan which relies heavily on film, league environment, statistical profile and skill-set.

What did I just read here?

Film? That's subjective. Maybe you could elaborate on that.

League environment? Jordan's era was objectively tougher for offensive players particularly perimeter players. The difference in physicality is night and day. Today's game might be more "evolved" but it's certainly easier for offensive players. Most people rightfully believe that Jordan today would put up even better numbers than he did back then, not worse.

Statistical profile? Jordan has a superior basic box score to Lebron. Way more pts/75, equal rTS, better turnover economy, slightly worse box creation. Jordan has a superior advanced box score from BPM to Backpicks BPM to AuPM as presented in the Greatest Peaks Series. Now thanks to lessthanjake's other thread we know Jordan also has far superior career playoff ON-OFF compared to Lebron as well.

Skill set? Jordan is a better shooter from midrange and free throw line, a better post player, has a quicker first step etc. Apart from rim finishing where Lebron is better and maybe 3pt shooting where they are pretty equal, Jordan is generally more complete in terms of scoring. Jordan has better agility, quicker hands and a higher vertical as well which helps on offense as well as defense.

[tsherkin]

Skill set? Jordan is a better shooter from midrange and free throw line, a better post player, has a quicker first step etc. Apart from rim finishing where Lebron is better and maybe 3pt shooting where they are pretty equal, Jordan is generally more complete in terms of scoring. Jordan has better agility, quicker hands and a higher vertical as well which helps on offense as well as defense.

I'm picking at nits here, because I generally agree with your whole post, but Jordan was nota better post player. Jordan would certainly look even better than he did in his own time if he played today. His raw TS% would be higher, he'd probably be a 4 3PA/g, 33% guy today and he'd have a riot of a time slashing and working in transition (more like he did in the 80s and early 90s). But while he had a more aesthetically pleasing post game due to his jumper, he was definitely not better at in than the 6'9, athletic monster with the power/mass advantage. Unless there are some PPP numbers floating around to suggest otherwise? But Lebron's finishing isn't just because of his era. It's because he's a monster and when you let him inside 8 feet, he's a beast. And he's got hooks and spins and drop-steps and fades and all the same library of moves. He's just more capable of doing it against a wider variety of guys and he finishes like a demon in close. And he's quite capable of getting there. Jordan's advantages and skill domination comes elsewhere.

[Djoker]

Skill set? Jordan is a better shooter from midrange and free throw line, a better post player, has a quicker first step etc. Apart from rim finishing where Lebron is better and maybe 3pt shooting where they are pretty equal, Jordan is generally more complete in terms of scoring. Jordan has better agility, quicker hands and a higher vertical as well which helps on offense as well as defense.

I'm picking at nits here, because I generally agree with your whole post, but Jordan was nota better post player. Jordan would certainly look even better than he did in his own time if he played today. His raw TS% would be higher, he'd probably be a 4 3PA/g, 33% guy today and he'd have a riot of a time slashing and working in transition (more like he did in the 80s and early 90s). But while he had a more aesthetically pleasing post game due to his jumper, he was definitely not better at in than the 6'9, athletic monster with the power/mass advantage. Unless there are some PPP numbers floating around to suggest otherwise? But Lebron's finishing isn't just because of his era. It's because he's a monster and when you let him inside 8 feet, he's a beast. And he's got hooks and spins and drop-steps and fades and all the same library of moves. He's just more capable of doing it against a wider variety of guys and he finishes like a demon in close. And he's quite capable of getting there. Jordan's advantages and skill domination comes elsewhere.

MJ certainly used the post a lot. It was his bread and butter while Lebron used it more sparingly.

Plus I'm not convinced that MJ isn't better per possession. We actually have data for MJ for the 1992 playoffs thanks to PHILA.



MJ is at 1.16 PPP which is absolutely elite.

Lebron RS 2012 and 2013


Lebron PS 2012 and 2013


By comparison 2012 and 2013 Lebron which are the years he was playing more in the post, he's at 0.97 PPP in regular season and 0.81 in the playoffs. Particularly in the playoffs, Lebron's post game wasn't very effective.

I realize the sample size for MJ is very small but that's all we have.

[RCM88x]

Skill set? Jordan is a better shooter from midrange and free throw line, a better post player, has a quicker first step etc. Apart from rim finishing where Lebron is better and maybe 3pt shooting where they are pretty equal, Jordan is generally more complete in terms of scoring. Jordan has better agility, quicker hands and a higher vertical as well which helps on offense as well as defense.

I'm picking at nits here, because I generally agree with your whole post, but Jordan was nota better post player. Jordan would certainly look even better than he did in his own time if he played today. His raw TS% would be higher, he'd probably be a 4 3PA/g, 33% guy today and he'd have a riot of a time slashing and working in transition (more like he did in the 80s and early 90s). But while he had a more aesthetically pleasing post game due to his jumper, he was definitely not better at in than the 6'9, athletic monster with the power/mass advantage. Unless there are some PPP numbers floating around to suggest otherwise? But Lebron's finishing isn't just because of his era. It's because he's a monster and when you let him inside 8 feet, he's a beast. And he's got hooks and spins and drop-steps and fades and all the same library of moves. He's just more capable of doing it against a wider variety of guys and he finishes like a demon in close. And he's quite capable of getting there. Jordan's advantages and skill domination comes elsewhere.

MJ certainly used the post a lot. It was his bread and butter while Lebron used it more sparingly.

Plus I'm not convinced that MJ isn't better per possession. We actually have data for MJ for the 1992 playoffs thanks to PHILA.



MJ is at 1.16 PPP which is absolutely elite.

Lebron RS 2012 and 2013


Lebron PS 2012 and 2013


By comparison 2012 and 2013 Lebron which are the years he was playing more in the post, he's at 0.97 PPP in regular season and 0.81 in the playoffs. Particularly in the playoffs, Lebron's post game wasn't very effective.

I realize the sample size for MJ is very small but that's all we have.

Unfortunately for anything like this, different samplers have different criteria for categorizing these possessions. Unless we have consistent data it's apples and oranges. Plus, not being able to compare to league average makes it much harder to draw conclusions.

I'm not really arguing your point here, just that I don't think that comparing data like this really lets us make anything other than a "hot or cold" decision.

MJ was probably more effective than Lebron in the post, sure. But by how much? Impossible to say.

[Djoker]

I'm picking at nits here, because I generally agree with your whole post, but Jordan was nota better post player. Jordan would certainly look even better than he did in his own time if he played today. His raw TS% would be higher, he'd probably be a 4 3PA/g, 33% guy today and he'd have a riot of a time slashing and working in transition (more like he did in the 80s and early 90s). But while he had a more aesthetically pleasing post game due to his jumper, he was definitely not better at in than the 6'9, athletic monster with the power/mass advantage. Unless there are some PPP numbers floating around to suggest otherwise? But Lebron's finishing isn't just because of his era. It's because he's a monster and when you let him inside 8 feet, he's a beast. And he's got hooks and spins and drop-steps and fades and all the same library of moves. He's just more capable of doing it against a wider variety of guys and he finishes like a demon in close. And he's quite capable of getting there. Jordan's advantages and skill domination comes elsewhere.

MJ certainly used the post a lot. It was his bread and butter while Lebron used it more sparingly.

Plus I'm not convinced that MJ isn't better per possession. We actually have data for MJ for the 1992 playoffs thanks to PHILA.



MJ is at 1.16 PPP which is absolutely elite.

Lebron RS 2012 and 2013


Lebron PS 2012 and 2013


By comparison 2012 and 2013 Lebron which are the years he was playing more in the post, he's at 0.97 PPP in regular season and 0.81 in the playoffs. Particularly in the playoffs, Lebron's post game wasn't very effective.

I realize the sample size for MJ is very small but that's all we have.

Unfortunately for anything like this, different samplers have different criteria for categorizing these possessions. Unless we have consistent data it's apples and oranges. Plus, not being able to compare to league average makes it much harder to draw conclusions.

I'm not really arguing your point here, just that I don't think that comparing data like this really lets us make anything other than a "hot or cold" decision.

MJ was probably more effective than Lebron in the post, sure. But by how much? Impossible to say.

Oh I agree. The data I posted if far from end-all-be-all. At the end of the day we don't have enough data but MJ was certainly a super effective post player especially considering his volume of post shots.

[OhayoKD]

I don't believe there is a strong, objective argument to be made in favor of Jordan which relies heavily on film, league environment, statistical profile and skill-set.

How about team and individual dominance over there peers? I think its quite objective which of these 2 had a superior dominance. Isn't that what matters most...winning?

Sure, you could focus solely on winning, but then Bill Russell and George Mikan should be #1 and #2 on those lists, and I have never seen a list with Russell/Mikan/Jordan as #1, #2 and #3.

So, we start to apply context, and other players rise and some players fall.

bill russell should be #1 if you focus on "statistics"(that matter) too...

[OhayoKD]

This essentially assumes that someone who “look[s] at all the statistical evidence” could not come to a conclusion that Jordan > LeBron. Which I don’t think is true at all. Like, all the groups you mention do exist, but there absolutely are also people who prefer Jordan and whose views *are* based on statistical evidence, film study, and a deep understanding of basketball (indeed, I think there’s many such people). And your post basically suggests that that doesn’t exist.

I don't believe there is a strong, objective argument to be made in favor of Jordan which relies heavily on film, league environment, statistical profile and skill-set.

What did I just read here?

Film? That's subjective. Maybe you could elaborate on that.

League environment? Jordan's era was objectively tougher for offensive players particularly perimeter players. The difference in physicality is night and day. Today's game might be more "evolved" but it's certainly easier for offensive players. Most people rightfully believe that Jordan today would put up even better numbers than he did back then, not worse.

Statistical profile? Jordan has a superior basic box score to Lebron. Way more pts/75, equal rTS, better turnover economy, slightly worse box creation. Jordan has a superior advanced box score from BPM to Backpicks BPM to AuPM as presented in the Greatest Peaks Series. Now thanks to lessthanjake's other thread we know Jordan also has far superior career playoff ON-OFF compared to Lebron as well.

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

[Djoker]

I don't believe there is a strong, objective argument to be made in favor of Jordan which relies heavily on film, league environment, statistical profile and skill-set.

What did I just read here?

Film? That's subjective. Maybe you could elaborate on that.

League environment? Jordan's era was objectively tougher for offensive players particularly perimeter players. The difference in physicality is night and day. Today's game might be more "evolved" but it's certainly easier for offensive players. Most people rightfully believe that Jordan today would put up even better numbers than he did back then, not worse.

Statistical profile? Jordan has a superior basic box score to Lebron. Way more pts/75, equal rTS, better turnover economy, slightly worse box creation. Jordan has a superior advanced box score from BPM to Backpicks BPM to AuPM as presented in the Greatest Peaks Series. Now thanks to lessthanjake's other thread we know Jordan also has far superior career playoff ON-OFF compared to Lebron as well.

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

How?

Lebron's career ON-OFF in the playoffs is +10.2.

Jordan's 163-game sample which is over 90% of his playoff career is +17.0. Even if the remaining 16 games drop him a lot he's still probably +14 or +15.

[tsherkin]

MJ certainly used the post a lot.

Certainly in the second three-peat, yes. And obviously increasingly under Phil, for sure. That is undeniable.

MJ is at 1.16 PPP which is absolutely elite.

That's something I hadn't seen before, and is interesting. "Post-up" is one of my least favorite categories in these kinds of things because it doesn't necessarily mean post iso, it can be a couple of different things, but this is exactly the sort of thing I was referencing when I was talking about stuff I hadn't seen, so that's a great share, thanks. It's only 22 games, but that's also against Miami, New York, Cleveland and Portland. Miami was trash on D (pre-Mourning and no one interesting on the wing). New York was a VERY good D, and Jordan suffered for it (-4% TS compared to his RS, -0.6% rTS compared to 92 playoff average), but unless we get the per-series breakdown, can't tell how he did in that series in particular on those sets. Cleveland was an average-ish D but Jordan was actually LESS efficient vs them than vs New York at 51.1% TS, which is like -3.4% compared to playoff average that year. Portland was again an excellent D, and that was his second-best series (some of which came from 3pt shooting, as many may recall). So did he own Miami and Portland and then fail in the middle? That would make sense, given the nature of those opponents, and it wouldn't tell us a lot about his success in postups.

And there are the era-related concerns. What was the average distance of the second defender in Jordan's era, especially in the early 90s, compared to what Lebron was dealing with post 2008 Celtics in the Thibodeaux-influenced era? So there are a bunch of different concerns in style of defense, and in how that data looks when Jordan was dealing with good help defense.

But it certainly opens the discussion up a little more than I was expecting, so again, thanks for sharing.

EDIT: Also, it occurs to me to add, I didn't mean to imply that Jordan didn't use the post or that he wasn't effective. It was an evident part of his repertoire once he started winning titles and it was a central feature in his second three-peat, for sure. I would love to see more later-Lebron data on this, though, from someone who still has a Synergy subscription. Because he was still comparatively new at post play in the Miami title years. I'd love to see what he looks like as a Laker, for example, or in his second stint with the Cavs.

[OhayoKD]

What did I just read here?

Film? That's subjective. Maybe you could elaborate on that.

League environment? Jordan's era was objectively tougher for offensive players particularly perimeter players. The difference in physicality is night and day. Today's game might be more "evolved" but it's certainly easier for offensive players. Most people rightfully believe that Jordan today would put up even better numbers than he did back then, not worse.

Statistical profile? Jordan has a superior basic box score to Lebron. Way more pts/75, equal rTS, better turnover economy, slightly worse box creation. Jordan has a superior advanced box score from BPM to Backpicks BPM to AuPM as presented in the Greatest Peaks Series. Now thanks to lessthanjake's other thread we know Jordan also has far superior career playoff ON-OFF compared to Lebron as well.

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

How?

Lebron's career ON-OFF in the playoffs is +10.2.

Jordan's 163-game sample which is over 90% of his playoff career is +17.0. Even if the remaining 16 games drop him a lot he's still probably +14 or +15.

Lebron's 14-year matches 11-years of Jordan we have if we use the same per 48 minutes process. Outright better if we don't assume ben's graphs include 1994. No idea why you are using a longer stretch for Lebron where he's dragged down to +10 in years where Jordan was in the ncaa

The +16 comes from a different process and bbr's pace estimates are also not all that accurate(2007-2021 per bbr is a full point below lebron's actual pace-adjusted numbers)

[Djoker]

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

How?

Lebron's career ON-OFF in the playoffs is +10.2.

Jordan's 163-game sample which is over 90% of his playoff career is +17.0. Even if the remaining 16 games drop him a lot he's still probably +14 or +15.

Lebron's 14-year matches 11-years of Jordan we have if we use the same per 48 minutes process. Outright better if we don't assume ben's graphs include 1994. No idea why you are using a longer stretch for Lebron where he's dragged down to +10 in years where Jordan was in the ncaa

The +16 comes from a different process and bbr's pace estimates are also not all that accurate(2007-2021 per bbr is a full point below lebron's actual pace-adjusted numbers)

The data I'm citing is per 100 possessions.

If you prefer using Lebron's playoff prime from 2009 to 2020 he's still +10.4 ON-OFF per 100 as per BRef. Since BRef pace was also used to compute MJ's numbers you can't really use it as an excuse.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html

1985, 1988-1993, 1996-1998 Jordan is around +17 ON-OFF per 100. Even if 1986, 1987 and 1995 bring those numbers down to like +15 or +14, MJ is still solidly above Lebron in ON-OFF.

[lessthanjake]

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

How?

Lebron's career ON-OFF in the playoffs is +10.2.

Jordan's 163-game sample which is over 90% of his playoff career is +17.0. Even if the remaining 16 games drop him a lot he's still probably +14 or +15.

Lebron's 14-year matches 11-years of Jordan we have if we use the same per 48 minutes process. Outright better if we don't assume ben's graphs include 1994. No idea why you are using a longer stretch for Lebron where he's dragged down to +10 in years where Jordan was in the ncaa

The +16 comes from a different process and bbr's pace estimates are also not all that accurate(2007-2021 per bbr is a full point below lebron's actual pace-adjusted numbers)

Measuring things based on per-100-possessions is the standard way that statistics are analyzed in basketball, because different eras and teams have different pace. It’s curious you’d want to depart from that here. In the data we have (which is over 90% of Jordan’s playoff career), Jordan’s per-100-possessions playoff on-off is far ahead of any remotely comparable timespan from LeBron.

Of course, even if we *did* look at per-48-minute on-off, saying that LeBron “matches” Jordan is a bit odd. In the data we actually have, Jordan’s per-48-minute playoff on-off is, by my calculation, about +15.7, while LeBron’s per-48-minute on-off even in that specific optimal timespan you identify is, according to you, +13.8. So yeah, LeBron doesn’t match Jordan.

My guess is that you want to say LeBron matches Jordan by adding in numbers for 1995. But we have no good way of doing that. The only way to do so is to try to derive the values for that year from the 1993-1995 timespan in the Thinking Basketball video. But we know that that method is incredibly inaccurate, since we know from trying to derive other numbers that way that it spits out completely different numbers depending on which three-year span you try to use (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107971752#p107971752). It’s just not a reliable method (which is why I replaced it with a different method in trying to get the 1990 “off” value—which I’ll note that I did despite the different method making 1990 look substantially less good for Jordan). In any event, you want us to look at an optimal span for LeBron that encompasses just under 90% of his playoff career, and we have actual data for just over 90% of Michael Jordan’s playoff career. Seems quite analogous and those numbers show Jordan to clearly have a superior on-off.

[homecourtloss]

What did I just read here?

Film? That's subjective. Maybe you could elaborate on that.

League environment? Jordan's era was objectively tougher for offensive players particularly perimeter players. The difference in physicality is night and day. Today's game might be more "evolved" but it's certainly easier for offensive players. Most people rightfully believe that Jordan today would put up even better numbers than he did back then, not worse.

Statistical profile? Jordan has a superior basic box score to Lebron. Way more pts/75, equal rTS, better turnover economy, slightly worse box creation. Jordan has a superior advanced box score from BPM to Backpicks BPM to AuPM as presented in the Greatest Peaks Series. Now thanks to lessthanjake's other thread we know Jordan also has far superior career playoff ON-OFF compared to Lebron as well.

???
Lebron has better playoff on/off over more years...

Impact generally favors Lebron yeah

How?

Lebron's career ON-OFF in the playoffs is +10.2.

Jordan's 163-game sample which is over 90% of his playoff career is +17.0. Even if the remaining 16 games drop him a lot he's still probably +14 or +15.

—Per48 or per 100? The 10.2 number from BKREF is per 100. The numbers you have for Jordan from the other thread are per 48. BTW, NBA.com exact possession data has LeBron’s on/off as higher than BKREF’s estimates (where you got the +10.2). They have every year starting from 2008. I haven’t calculated the per 100 or per48 yet, but LeBRon’s is at around +14 or above if you take out 2006 and last year, over more years (fourteen) than every year of Jordan’s (thirteen).



—Jordan’s not at +17 if you include 1986, 1987, and 1995. Probably around middle +14.

[OhayoKD]

Yeah, this feels like that Jon Bois video about the Internet conversation where one guy insisted there were eight days in a week...

To be clear. What Jake is doing is in essence calculating Jordan’s per 48 average (without posting it because that would reflect poorly on Jordan) and then multiplying it by 100/“Average BBRef Bulls Postseason Pace in applicable years” and then comparing it to Lebron's BBref on/off as opposed to undergoing the same process with Lebron.

If we were to compare evenly, we get a pace of 87.66 for MJ



(it would be higher if we included 96.8 from MJ's 85 exit but whatever)

Averaging Lebron's pace from 2007-2021 gets you an average of approximately 89.77.

This leaves a 2.4% faster pace for Lebron. Somehow that got Mj...

Measuring things based on per-100-possessions is the standard way that statistics are analyzed in basketball, because different eras and teams have different pace. It’s curious you’d want to depart from that here. In the data we have (which is over 90% of Jordan’s playoff career), Jordan’s per-100-possessions playoff on-off is far ahead of any remotely comparable timespan from LeBron.

Yeah, It looks that way because you are doing a different calculation than what is on the basketball-reference estimates. I do not know whether you are deliberately lying or you do not understand basic math principles as well as you claim, but for the thread’s benefit, you should detail exactly what you would do to calculate Lebron’s numbers with the same process you used to calculate Jordan’s if you had no access to those on/off estimates.

Would strongly recommend using 2021 as a test-run

Of course, even if we *did* look at per-48-minute on-off, saying that LeBron “matches” Jordan is a bit odd. In the data we actually have, Jordan’s per-48-minute playoff on-off is, by my calculation, about +15.7, while LeBron’s per-48-minute on-off even in that specific optimal timespan you identify is, according to you, +13.8. So yeah, LeBron doesn’t match Jordan.

Uh

Spoiler:

I didn’t say that Jordan’s impact data looks anything but great and is in the discussion for possible GOATdom.

I said that the idea that his peak of 1991 and the surrounding years is some type of outlier mythological monster isn’t supported by any of the data at all. Everything you just listed is very nice and good, but it’s type of data that other players have done similarly or in the case of someone like LeBron, even better since we have RAPM numbers.

But that chart is just taking the absolute best +/- periods for other players over relatively short timespans in a low-sample-size measure. Jordan’s best playoff on-off years aren’t all distributed next to each other. When you go to larger sample sizes—which is obviously an important and superior thing to do with playoff on/off data since it’s all low sample size in general and we want to look at as large a sample as we can—we see that in the data we have over 9 playoffs, Jordan has about a +16.0 on-off per 100 possessions overall. For reference, the best 9-playoff span LeBron has in playoff on-off is +13.9, and it was +10.4 in his prime years (defining 2009-2020 as his prime) and +10.2 for his career. Of course, we don’t have *all* the years for Jordan, so we can’t make a full comparison, but it certainly looks very GOAT-like for Jordan when we actually properly look at all the data we have.[/quote]

Again, Jordan looks good but nothing outlier or anything that seems to show consensus GOAT peak. Also, not sure if you’re trying to apply BKREF’s pace estimates to eyeball estimates of a graph or not here. Pace probably does favor 1990 Jordan compared to 2017 Lebron for single, but we have surety of LeBron’s numbers while it’s fuzzy for Jordan’s. I’m assuming you’re using DraymondGold’s numbers, which uses some average which we discussed but since it’s being used:

Jordan's best 1-year average: +33.5 or 33.75 (1990; +24 in 1989)
Jordan's best 2-year average: +28.7 (1989-1990)
Jordan's best 3-year average: +23.4 (1989-1991)
Jordan's best 4-year average: +20.2 (1988-1991)
Jordan's best 5-year average: +18.5 (1989-1993)
Jordan's best 6-year average: +14.4 (1988-1993)

Then, he discounts 1995:

Jordan's best 7-year average:+16.6 (1989-1997 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +12.3 to +12.9 ish if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 8-year average: +16.0 (1989-1998 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +13.6 to +14.2 ish if we include 1995)
Jordan's best 9-year average: +15.2 (1988-1998 discounting 1995 which has greater uncertainty; it's +13.5 to +13.9 ish if we include 1995)

I’m not sure whether he is counting 1995 in an existing range or instead of a border year on that range. I recall he said there is no 10-year number when literally speaking there should be one, so either he skipped the 7-year average or he skipped the 10 year average.

Lebron’s 2017 postseason on/off per 48 minutes is +33.4
Lebron’s 2016/17 postseason (2-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +24.9, and he also has a smaller sample stretch of +25.8 in 2007/08.
Lebron’s 2007-10 postseason (4-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +21
Lebron’s 2015-21 postseason (6-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +16, and his 2007-12 stretch is +15.4
Lebron’s 2014-21 postseason (7-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +14.9
Lebron’s 2012-20 postseason (8-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +13.1
Lebron’s 2012-21 postseason (9-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +14.4
Lebron’s 2007-21 postseason (14-year) on/off per 48 minutes is +13.8.

Lebron’s 9-average is better than Jordan’s best 6-year average, and his 14-year average is close to that 6-year average. Nothing stands out here really.

[/quote]

Adding 4 games should not be taking us from sub-14 up to 16.

My guess is that you want to say LeBron matches Jordan by adding in numbers for 1995. But we have no good way of doing that. The only way to do so is to try to derive the values for that year from the 1993-1995 timespan in the Thinking Basketball video. But we know that that method is incredibly inaccurate, since we know from trying to derive other numbers that way that it spits out completely different numbers depending on which three-year span you try to use

Yes you know, it is a massive negative but not exactly just how massive, so better throw it out entirely and pretend it is not there.



How about this? Use the nicest derived result you can. There are a few different approaches, but even the most mild is still an applicable drain.

[Djoker]

--

I'm sorry but I don't get your point. The BRef ON-OFF data (obviously?) uses their own pace estimates and the MJ data was computed using BRef's pace estimates as well.

Of course you're trying to play with numbers to suit your narrative so you're removing Lebron years you don't like.

I personally have already conceded that MJ's total career ON-OFF per 100 is probably around +15 or even +14 because like you said 1995 brings him down. That's still noticeably higher than Lebron's career ON-OFF per 100 which is +10.2. It's kind of indisputable at this point even if we assume the worst drop in the remaining games that Jordan is ahead.

Of course it's also possible that 1986 and 1987 helps Jordan's ON-OFF the way the 1985 series does. I doubt those Bulls teams were doing well against the Celtics when Jordan was off the court.

[Ian Scuffling]

Old man MJ didn't have the medical breakthroughs that LeBron has! This comparison is completely unfair and ridiculous. Give MJ modern medicine and I have no doubt he could be better than old LeBron!

Well researched and thought out.

[Ian Scuffling]

Are you talking directly to me?

What I viewed was a much harder to score in era then the current one. Hence why scoring is much more nowadays.

Trex and I both took the time to explain how the difference in league average FG% isn't very different. We also pointed out how vast the difference in Jordan and LeBron had in FG%.

If you want to actually address the points we brought up, please do so. If you want to talk past us, then we will both acknowledge your inability to articulate and address an argument brought forth against you and I will continue to engage with you less and less as you are becoming a waste of time on this forum.

I don't engage with you because of your attitude, so it's no loss to me. You should be snuggled with your view, it'd likely keep it warm and secure for you.

In other words, "Your statistics (re: Facts) are hard for me to understand and do not support my bias, so, I'm not going to engage with you" I imagine a tongue sticking out would be there somewhere, too

[AEnigma]

--

I'm sorry but I don't get your point. The BRef ON-OFF data (obviously?) uses their own pace estimates and the MJ data was computed using BRef's pace estimates as well.

Right, so logically, you should be able to recreate BRef’s numbers yourself, no?

Say BRef has an abnormally high pace estimate for Lebron’s teams, and that explains why Lebron’s on/off is different (lower…) than what you would pull from PBPStats or NBA.com. The pace is not so far off that it should result in substantially different numbers, yet here we are.

Of course you're trying to play with numbers to suit your narrative so you're removing Lebron years you don't like.

I only see one group playing with numbers unevenly to inflate the guy they prefer. If you cannot be consistent in your process, then you have no process.

You can calculate Lebron’s career on/off. The larger the sample, the more valid the number, and Lebron did not actually change from being a minus twenty something player in the 2006 postseason to being a positive twenty something in the 2007 postseason. The reality trends toward the larger sample, but it is ultimately a trend.

However, when people watch all your standards suddenly become pretty much exactly one of counting out a number and declaring it a measure of that player’s quality — now that you have some superficial indication that it supports what you believe — yes, I think it matters that you are including “negative” Lebron years where Jordan by comparison was not even present or good enough to lead his teams there. And I think it also matters that now we are abandoning Jordan’s negatives for lack of “confidence” in the precise scale of negativity. HCL gave you a game from 1986; where is that in this very dedicated and principled summary of Jordan’s colossal and very real advantage?

I personally have already conceded that MJ's total career ON-OFF per 100 is probably around +15 or even +14 because like you said 1995 brings him down. That's still noticeably higher than Lebron's career ON-OFF per 100 which is +10.2. It's kind of indisputable at this point even if we assume the worst drop in the remaining games that Jordan is ahead.

Except that is not the case if you use the process evenly. Nothing is indisputable so long as you are inventing a wholly disparate and inflationary process for one and then attempting to pile that entire gap onto marginal pace disparities.

Of course it's also possible that 1986 and 1987 helps Jordan's ON-OFF the way the 1985 series does. I doubt those Bulls teams were doing well against the Celtics when Jordan was off the court.

Yet in the one game you were given from 1986, it was not any real positive for Jordan.

[Owly]

My take on Russell is that he was born in an era with not much footage and a league that was viewed by many as not a full blown professional league.

I'm not quite sure what "a full blown professional league" means (or who the "many" are, without any citation) but if there's an implication that it wasn't fully professional (it's hard to see what else "professional" is doing in that sentence)... I think he and the people paying him $100,001 a year in the 1960s might be surprised.

I've got that contract occurring in 1965. Let's say it started then and counts for 1966. which one source says puts him well more than 20x the mean and more than 9x enough to put him in the top 5% of earners (https://dqydj.com/individual-income-by-year/). Obviously not everyone was as well paid as he was but that would be quite the resources for an amateur or semi-pro league.