Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[payitforward]

But its an interesting exercise for a slow summer: What's the best team you could assemble from the bottom half of every team's roster.

Probably worth its own thread.

Start it, Doc -- a fun idea!

[nate33]

f I were a gm, I would place optimal value on having Deni and Davis if I had a team where Davis and Deni could play ~30 mpg at sg and pf. With Poole and Kuzma making $53 a year for the next 4 years, that’s not the Wizards.

I just don't see money as being an obstacle. The team will be $40M under the cap next year. Kuzma is signed to a declining contract. In 2 years, he will cost 13% of the cap, which is appropriate for a 6th man's salary. We will easily be able to afford Kispert and Avdija at fair contracts. And ultimately, I expect us to trade Kuzma in 2 years anyhow. I'm actually hoping that they sign Avdija and Kispert to the same type of front-loaded deals they signed Kuzma to. If everything works out right, 4 or 5 years down the road, we will have drafted our franchise player (in the 2024 or 2025 draft), Poole will be a Bradley Beal tier 2nd guy, Coulibaly will be an above-average starter, and we will have Avdija and Kispert as quality depth at a cheap price because their contracts will be declining. Maybe Avdija is our starting PF if he puts it all together.

Third, as far as I am aware, there is no stat page which shows production by position played, so I can only go on my gut which tells me, kispert is best suited to play sf, and the Wizards will see vast improvement in his production as most if not all his minutes will be at sf this year, where in his first two seasons, he played 35% and 38% at sg, whereas Deni has not looked as good as I would like because 67% of his minutes have been at sf.

Good topic for discussion. 82games.com has the data. Surprisingly, Kispert looks to be much more effective at SG. His individual offensive production is slightly down relative to SF, but he outplays his counterpart to a much greater degree while at the SG position. And the team is essentially breakeven in plus/minus when Kispert is at SG, while they get soundly outplayed with Kispert at SF.



There may be other factors at play. I'm assuming most of Kispert's SG minutes were against backups because Beal was the starter, whereas many of his SF minutes may have been against starting caliber competition. But I think it's real interesting that the team fares a lot better defensively with Kispert at SG instead of SF.

[doclinkin]

Surprisingly, Kispert looks to be much more effective at SG. His individual offensive production is slightly down relative to SF, but he outplays his counterpart to a much greater degree while at the SG position. And the team is essentially breakeven in plus/minus when Kispert is at SG, while they get soundly outplayed with Kispert at SF.



There may be other factors at play. I'm assuming most of Kispert's SG minutes were against backups because Beal was the starter, whereas many of his SF minutes may have been against starting caliber competition. But I think it's real interesting that the team fares a lot better defensively with Kispert at SG instead of SF.

Also because Kispert has been played in relief of Deni at SF, which tanks our defense by removing an effective defender and adding an undersized overmatched one. (Too it meant he played next to Rui which was a poor chemistry match).

It's why I see Kispert as a 6th man in line-ups, subbing in as first guard off the bench regardless of whether Poole or Jones sits. I'd like to find times to stagger their minutes anyway so we don't play too small most of the game. Both look like they'd play well next to Kispert, and carry all the ballhandling duties where Kispert is less proficient. I'd also like to play Kispert minutes next to Deni, I think their games should blend well with reps and chemistry. Kispert makes smart cuts and gets open, Deni makes smart reads and needs a floor spacer to take advantage of his footspeed advantage over same-sized forwards.

At 2 guard Kispert is big for the position. At 3 he is at a disadvantage, we trade rebounding for outside shooting. Fans tend to sketch line-ups based on offense only, but I doubt the coaching staff goes that direction.

[nate33]

While we're on the subject, I grabbed Avdija's production by position data from 82games.com as well. None of it is very surprising:



Avdija mostly plays either SF or PF. The team's production is essentially the same regardless of where he plays. From an individual standpoint, he looks a bit better at PF. His own production is higher (15.2 PER versus 13.6 PER), with a higher eFG% and higher point total. And defensively, he holds opposing PF's to a lower eFG% than opposing SF's.

Again other factors are at play. When he plays SF, he is usually matched up against starters. He moves to PF against bench units while Kuzma sits.

[dckingsfan]

...but I doubt the coaching staff goes that direction.

Both your an Nate's points are really solid. But here is where the rubber meets the road.

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

As to if Kispert or Avdija starts at SF, I have given my opinion. But I think that the pre-season will dictate some of that as will Gallinari's health.

[doclinkin]

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

https://stathead.com/tiny/sjorB

Kispert is younger, shoots a better 3 ball, FT%, better rebounding, fouls less, and a significantly better player scoring at the rim. Tyus Jones will appreciate his backdoor cuts. He's a known quality for WUJ as well. He stood out in his late season run last year. If he could sustain that efficiency he's a significantly valuable player, defense be damned.

Shamet only stands above Kispert in his assist rate, which puts him at back-up PG, not 2-guard, and in that respect he may play well next to Kispert in any offense-only line-up we play off the bench.

Wright I expect will be traded earlier to a team that needs vet help in the back court. He defense has been nice, but his 3FG% has fallen off a bit. His is a more valuable role than Shamet.

[dckingsfan]

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

https://stathead.com/tiny/sjorB

Kispert is younger, shoots a better 3 ball, FT%, better rebounding, fouls less, and a significantly better player scoring at the rim. Tyus Jones will appreciate his backdoor cuts. He's a known quality for WUJ as well. He stood out in his late season run last year. If he could sustain that efficiency he's a significantly valuable player, defense be damned.

Shamet only stands above Kispert in his assist rate, which puts him at back-up PG, not 2-guard, and in that respect he may play well next to Kispert in any offense-only line-up we play off the bench.

Wright I expect will be traded earlier to a team that needs vet help in the back court. He defense has been nice, but his 3FG% has fallen off a bit. His is a more valuable role than Shamet.

Careful, you are making us hopeful that Kispert will play lots of minutes at SG

[doclinkin]

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

https://stathead.com/tiny/sjorB

Kispert is younger, shoots a better 3 ball, FT%, better rebounding, fouls less, and a significantly better player scoring at the rim. Tyus Jones will appreciate his backdoor cuts. He's a known quality for WUJ as well. He stood out in his late season run last year. If he could sustain that efficiency he's a significantly valuable player, defense be damned.

Shamet only stands above Kispert in his assist rate, which puts him at back-up PG, not 2-guard, and in that respect he may play well next to Kispert in any offense-only line-up we play off the bench.

Wright I expect will be traded earlier to a team that needs vet help in the back court. He defense has been nice, but his 3FG% has fallen off a bit. His is a more valuable role than Shamet.

Careful, you are making us hopeful that Kispert will play lots of minutes at SG

Right? A player that shoots 42% 3FG, 63% 2FG and 85% FT is going to find minutes on any team. No matter where they have to play him.

[DCZards]

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

I’m certain Wes Jr. knows well the “shiny” piece he has in Kispert. Wes saw what Kispert did at the end of last season.

Corey will get minutes at SG. But his size, as compared to Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright, will mean that he’ll also get minutes at SF. That’s a good thing because it allows for a wider range of lineups that include Kispert.

[WallToWall]

With Jones, Poole, and Kispert playing at the same time, it is quite possible that we will not have a good defense. Maybe we should run and gun and go for high scoring games. That methodology can work in todays NBA, right?

[dckingsfan]

The coaching staff has some shiny new guards to roll out. My guess is that Kispert plays lots of SF (and that wasn't my hope at all when Beal was traded, I was hoping for Kispert/Avdija to start at the 2/3).

I think that Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright eat all of the guard minutes at the start of the season - I hope I am wrong.

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

I’m certain Wes Jr. knows well the “shiny” piece he has in Kispert. Wes saw what Kispert did at the end of last season.

Corey will get minutes at SG. But his size, as compared to Poole, Jones, Shamet and Wright, will mean that he’ll also get minutes at SF. That’s a good thing because it allows for a wider range of lineups that include Kispert.

We shall see...

[dckingsfan]

I think Kispert is more 'shiny' than Landry Shamet.

https://stathead.com/tiny/sjorB

Kispert is younger, shoots a better 3 ball, FT%, better rebounding, fouls less, and a significantly better player scoring at the rim. Tyus Jones will appreciate his backdoor cuts. He's a known quality for WUJ as well. He stood out in his late season run last year. If he could sustain that efficiency he's a significantly valuable player, defense be damned.

Shamet only stands above Kispert in his assist rate, which puts him at back-up PG, not 2-guard, and in that respect he may play well next to Kispert in any offense-only line-up we play off the bench.

Wright I expect will be traded earlier to a team that needs vet help in the back court. He defense has been nice, but his 3FG% has fallen off a bit. His is a more valuable role than Shamet.

Careful, you are making us hopeful that Kispert will play lots of minutes at SG

Right? A player that shoots 42% 3FG, 63% 2FG and 85% FT is going to find minutes on any team. No matter where they have to play him.

Yep, and that is the question - where will he play. My guess is SF, to me that makes for a lot of small ball.

[closg00]

Oops, they need an update

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

If Coulibaly earns the starting SF role on Day 1 over Kispert and Avdija, it will be the best news of the season. Kispert and Avdija are solid rotation players, maybe not quite starting caliber, but still pretty good. If a 19-year-old is better than them, that would be awesome.

[penbeast0]

Note Nate's careful wording . . . "earns the starting SF role", rather than "is starting."

[gambitx777]

I think it's gonna be a really interesting season. We aren't gonna be dog ****. That's the fancy thing. I don't know if we will win much but I think we are gonna has a decent product.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[doclinkin]

I think Bilal is definitely in the rotation. Even if it’s just 8-10 mins a game. Davis will get minutes as well.

Need to develop at least those two youngins.

Right. I'm intrigued with all of the developmental prospects. It's why I am not bemoaning the idea that we drafted yet another Euro talent who won't suit up for us in the year they were drafted. Half our roster is younger than the NBA prime age (27). There is upside already on the roster if we can give the players opportunity and minutes.

Even 4th year player Deni at at 22 is still the 5th youngest player on the team. He has fixable flaws and has showed flashes of potential there, just needs to learn the consistency aspect. He's just a little ahead of the group of players like Butler (23), Rollins (21), Davis (21), PBJr (20) and Bilal (19) in terms of their learning curve.

Even the next cohort has possible upside. Kispert's (24) late-season improvement suggests he's putting together his game and finding his place at the next level. Likewise Poole (24) took a set-back last year but seems to have significant upside as a first-option player if he can regain the peak he showed in his Finals run. Not sure if Gafford (24) has much growth left in him given his flatline or declining stats over the most recent stretch, but maybe playing next to Jones will improve those numbers as well. He is unquestionably the starting C at this point so he will get all the opportunity.

It might be too much to ask for Kuzma (27) to improve, but he is now a clear leader on the team where before his light was shaded by Beal's outsized influence. Even 8 year veteran Jones (27) has a chance to grow though, having never been the lead guard up to now. This is the player I'm probably most curious about, I'd love to see if his own leadership skills can permeate the team and help others to develop. He is a player who has grown up in the league, starting as one of the youngest players in his draft class, already with a championship under his belt (NCAA). Seems to me he can mentor players in how to become true professionals and maximize their potential quickly.

[AFM]

Deni has fixable flaws but so far has been unable to fix them. Wasn't his shot WORSE last year after spending the entire off season with a shooting coach?

The path forward for Deni is pretty simple. Either he learns to shoot in which case he becomes a very valuable player with a long career, or he doesn't, in which case he'll never be more than a role player off the bench. Basketball is a game where the ball has to enter the basket.

[payitforward]

... I'm intrigued with all of the developmental prospects. It's why I am not bemoaning the idea that we drafted yet another Euro talent who won't suit up for us in the year they were drafted. Half our roster is younger than the NBA prime age (27). There is upside already on the roster if we can give the players opportunity and minutes.

Even 4th year player Deni at at 23 is still the 6th youngest player on the team. He has fixable flaws and has showed flashes of potential there, just needs to learn the consistency aspect. He's just a little ahead of the group of players like Butler (22), Rollins (21), Davis (21), PBJr (20) and Bilal (19) in terms of their learning curve.

Even the next cohort has possible upside. Kispert's (24) late-season improvement suggests he's putting together his game and finding his place at the next level. Likewise Poole (24) took a set-back last year but seems to have significant upside as a first-option player if he can regain the peak he showed in his Finals run. Not sure if Gafford (24) has much growth left in him given his flatline or declining stats over the most recent stretch, but maybe playing next to Jones will improve those numbers as well. He is unquestionably the starting C at this point so he will get all the opportunity.

It might be too much to ask for Kuzma (27) to improve, but he is now a clear leader on the team where before his light was shaded by Beal's outsized influence. Even 8 year veteran Jones (27) has a chance to grow though, having never been the lead guard up to now. This is the player I'm probably most curious about, I'd love to see if his own leadership skills can permeate the team and help others to develop. He is a player who has grown up in the league, starting as one of the youngest players in his draft class, already with a championship under his belt (NCAA). Seems to me he can mentor players in how to become true professionals and maximize their potential quickly.

Deni is 22 not 23. OTOH, Kuzma is 28 not 27.

The average age of an NBA player is 26.1.
The average of the current Washington Wizards players is 25.4.

We have 9 guys who are 24 or under (Coulibaly, Baldwin, Davis, Rollins, Avdija, Butler, Gafford, Kispert & Poole).
We have 5 guys from 26-28 (Omoruyi, Shamet, Cooks, Jones & Kuzma).
& we have 4 guys 30 or over (Gill, Wright, Muscala & Gallinari).

Obviously, that will change slightly, as it represents 16 regular roster players (1 too many) & a pair of 2 way guys (with room for 1 more).

The process has just started. But, for the moment, we are not a very young team overall. E.g.:

The average age of the current New York Knicks players is 24.05.
The average age of the current Cleveland Cavaliers players is 23.73.
The average age of the current Indiana Pacers players is 24.1.

[doclinkin]

I would like to see if the team can field a few balanced line-ups with vets playing next to young players, so that the skill set of established players can help rooks and prospects develop quicker.

Tyus - shooting 40% from 3, distribution, midrange floater game.
Kispert -- 40% 3FG to open the court, backdoor cuts
Bilal -- defense and cuts, lob threat and putbacks
Kuzma -- face-up 4, shooting above average 3 from the corners even if he is below average elsewhere, rebounding + passing
Gafford -- more of what Bilal does, only bigger.

Seems like it would be helpful for Bilal to have a true PG who can lead him to easy baskets to build his already strong confidence. This line puts a strong defensive front next to Kispert (smart D but at disadvantage in speed vs quick guards) and Jones (likewise smart, but a bit undersized). I'd like this line better on days when Kuzma's on one of those occasional hot streaks from 3, otherwise defenses can choke the middle. But if Bilal develops a reliable outside shot, even at average proficiency, then all the space is there.

Or this:
Poole -- shot creation off the dribble.
Kispert -- catch and shoot on the Poole drive and kick.
Deni -- rebounding, distribution, and defense; glue guy
PBJr/Muscala -- ranged shooting
Kuzma/Muscala -- face-up big in a small ball set.

On the idea of surrounding Poole with a tallball line-up with 3 face up players 6'9" and up. If PBJr lives up to his talent then essentially you can play him, Kispert and Kuz as a trio of small forwards, while Poole and Deni play a pick and roll game at the top of the key. Deni passes out of the short roll to whichever tall shooter is wide open. Both Deni and Kuz crash the glass to rebound at the other end.

If PBJr is unplayable for now, then Muscala adds the pick and pop game instead as an experienced small ball 5. PBJr is a better ballhandler, but slimmer and still plays as if he knows he is fragile.