RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #17 (David Robinson)

[rk2023]

Wonder why Wade hasn't gotten any kind of traction

He was my second nominee choice after Erving last time, so I'll probably be picking him this time around.

I think the longevity thing really hurts in perception compared to a guy like Paul because they are seen as contemporaries, but Wade's career ended long ago and Paul is still going.

Am saying the same thing, considering Giannis has gotten some nominations so far. Which is no knack at Giannis, as he’s a hell of a force in his own right. I think Wade is a similar player prime for prime, however

[HeartBreakKid]

Wonder why Wade hasn't gotten any kind of traction

He was my second nominee choice after Erving last time, so I'll probably be picking him this time around.

I think the longevity thing really hurts in perception compared to a guy like Paul because they are seen as contemporaries, but Wade's career ended long ago and Paul is still going.

Am saying the same thing, considering Giannis has gotten some nominations so far. Which is no knack at Giannis, as he’s a hell of a force in his own right. I think Wade is a similar player prime for prime, however

Isn't Kawhi Leonard then as well?

[rk2023]

He was my second nominee choice after Erving last time, so I'll probably be picking him this time around.

I think the longevity thing really hurts in perception compared to a guy like Paul because they are seen as contemporaries, but Wade's career ended long ago and Paul is still going.

Am saying the same thing, considering Giannis has gotten some nominations so far. Which is no knack at Giannis, as he’s a hell of a force in his own right. I think Wade is a similar player prime for prime, however

Isn't Kawhi Leonard then as well?

I’d say he’s a step down compared to the two of them

[homecourtloss]

Vote: Dirk

In a nutshell, I like his longevity over David Robinson’s, and I like his peak better than Karl Malone’s. He was an impactful offensive player at a position where you don’t usually get offensive impact, and he was creating that offensive impact by scoring efficiently on difficult, and for most people, inefficient shots, many of which really had no defense for them. This left more efficient shots for his teammates, which helped his teams create some really good offenses, even though his passing didn’t directly create those other shots, but his spacing, gravity, and movement (earlier in his career) did. If he were a better passer, you can see a case for him much higher than this. As it is, his low turnover economy somewhat ameliorates for his lack of creation.

Dirk: ….The weird bit is that this player is a big, making him unusually valuable on offense. This player was a floor spacer, generating very few offensive boards for a big but doing a great job with defensive boards. He was at best an average defender for his position. His major selling point is that he has incredibly inelastic scoring; throughout the playoffs you could count on him for high usage high efficiency without issue; building strong offenses around him was easy; it just took unusual lineup constructions to get the most out of him.

He was highly versatile on offense, too. Early on when playing with Steve Nash, he was more of a finisher, and he was assisted on the greater percentage of his shots. Then he became the hub.

It’s really interesting to note Nowitzki’s changed statline upon Nash leaving. Here are his rTS%, 3PAr, FTr, USG%, OBPM and 2P Assisted% for the two years before losing Nash and the two years after:

2003: +6.2% shooting, 0.262 3PAr, 0.368 FTr, 27.4% Usage, +5.8 OBPM, 58.7% 2PAstd
2004: +4.7% shooting, 0.221 3PAr, 0.323 FTr, 24.5% Usage, +3.8 OBPM, 67.0% 2PAstd
2005: +4.9% shooting, 0.158 3PAr, 0.490 FTr, 28.7% Usage, +5.8 OBPM, 49.1% 2PAstd
2006: +5.3% shooting, 0.173 3PAr, 0.382 FTr, 30.0% Usage, +7.8 OBPM, 43.8% 2PAstd

While he wasn’t a highly impactful defender relative to height and position, he was slightly or solidly positive for the majority of his career, and posted in a strong career DRAPM in JE’s RS+PS set.



He’s also in rarefied air in Taylor’s 1994-2017 AuPM converted to CORP



The early 2000s Dallas Mavericks with young Steve Nash and Dirk as the hub reached some impressive Heights.



And then as well in his later years

[Doctor MJ]

Dirk’s result is a bit interesting because while I knew he had a strong rate of success in Game 7s (4-1 is a top ten mark for superstars), he was 10-12 in game 5s and 4-8 in game 6s. I was actually planning to comment on how he might have a similar issue as you see with Shaq, where he may be resilient in a truly close series, in a more immediately imbalanced series, he has no real path to a comeback. With Shaq of course still being a substantial distance higher as an overall talent.

If you're just interested in Game 7's, it's easier for me to share certain queries from bkref.

Here's the leaderboard for total +/- in Game 7's.

I'll share the Top 10 and then some other relevant names:

1. Marcus Smart +77 (8 games)
2. Raja Bell +70 (5)
3. Al Horford +70 (10)
4. Steve Nash +67 (4)
5. Chauncey Billups +64 (5)
6. Jayson Tatum +57 (7)
7. Steph Curry +55 (5)
8. Jason Terry +55 (4)
9. Michael Finley +51 (5)
10. Ray Allen +50 (11)

Kevin Garnett +42 (7)
Pau Gasol +42 (3)
Manu Ginobili +42 (6)
Kevin Durant +40 (5)
Ben Wallace +38 (6)
Dwight Howard +36 (3)
LeBron James +36 (8)
Dirk Nowitzki +16 (5)
Shaquille O'Neal +11 (4)
Tracy McGrady -53 (3)
Chris Paul -61 (8)

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I think it's hard to overstate how important that 2011 title run is to Dirk's legacy. Before that - as Doc's numbers show - he was flat out seen a mentally weak player who shrunk in the big moments - blowing a 2-0 lead in the 06 finals and then getting bounced in the first round by the We Believe Warriors the very next year(resulting in that awkward MVP press conference after the Mavs had been eliminated) was bad for him. He was seen as being done as a #1 option on a contender after that. The Mavs lost in the first round in 2008 and 2010 and in the second round in 2009, and despite Dirk playing really well all three years, the perception was that he couldn't lead a team to a championship. The 2011 run changed all that, made him a champion while going through Kobe, Durant, and LeBron/Wade. I don't know if there's a more legacy-changing individual playoff run for a star player.

Iverson's 2001 Finals run is worth a thought - without that, he's just an inefficient volume scorer who never got past the second round. It was a weak conference and they lost the Finals, but you can bet that Finals run is going to net Iverson a higher place on this list than he would otherwise(given the board's general antipathy towards him).

Walton's 1977 run ought to be mentioned too, given his injury situation.

Maybe KG's 2008 run or Ewing's 1994 Finals run.

But I'm not sure anything tops Dirk's 2011 run in this category.

[One_and_Done]

Running the same vote as last round. Am unsure whom my alt will be.

Vote - Dirk Nowitzki

I'm quite surprised Dirk hasn't gained much traction yet!

Hard to say Dirk hasn't had any traction, when we would literally be voting Dirk in this round if people hadn't forgotten to preference D.Rob last round.

[Doctor MJ]

I think this study isn't going to be all that accurate given what is considered a late playoff game (g5-7). Assuming PM means +/- that isn't going to give much to work with on that sample size.



But that aside, I am not sure if your impact dropping off toward elimination games really means anything. There isn't much of a difference between being absolutely phenomenal at the start and being so-so at the end.


We could make an extreme assumption like assume someone had some 100 point game in game 1 and then did nothing for the series and his averages might be "inflated" relative to how he helps his team win a series, but that isn't something that really reflects reality very well.

Well note that I said up front the coarseness of the metric, and the context my analysis came out of.
Would I want to use this alone to judge players? No.
But for those skeptical there's any quantitative evidence of something already being discussed qualitatively, this is another piece of evidence to consider.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think it's hard to overstate how important that 2011 title run is to Dirk's legacy. Before that - as Doc's numbers show - he was flat out seen a mentally weak player who shrunk in the big moments - blowing a 2-0 lead in the 06 finals and then getting bounced in the first round by the We Believe Warriors the very next year(resulting in that awkward MVP press conference after the Mavs had been eliminated) was bad for him. He was seen as being done as a #1 option on a contender after that. The Mavs lost in the first round in 2008 and 2010 and in the second round in 2009, and despite Dirk playing really well all three years, the perception was that he couldn't lead a team to a championship. The 2011 run changed all that, made him a champion while going through Kobe, Durant, and LeBron/Wade. I don't know if there's a more legacy-changing individual playoff run for a star player.

Iverson's 2001 Finals run is worth a thought - without that, he's just an inefficient volume scorer who never got past the second round. It was a weak conference and they lost the Finals, but you can bet that Finals run is going to net Iverson a higher place on this list than he would otherwise(given the board's general antipathy towards him).

Walton's 1977 run ought to be mentioned too, given his injury situation.

Maybe KG's 2008 run or Ewing's 1994 Finals run.

But I'm not sure anything tops Dirk's 2011 run in this category.

I don't think anyone forgot this, but I am confused. Are you saying this as a pro for Dirk or a con?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Am saying the same thing, considering Giannis has gotten some nominations so far. Which is no knack at Giannis, as he’s a hell of a force in his own right. I think Wade is a similar player prime for prime, however

Isn't Kawhi Leonard then as well?

I’d say he’s a step down compared to the two of them

I think Kawhi the longevity issues are just far worse, and he’s basically outwardly said he’s not trying much in the regular season

Kawhi hasn’t really had a healthy playoff run in his prime, 2019 he got noticeably hurt vs the bucks and his numbers dropped off afterwards, and even in 2020 when he was healthy there was some strange bubble stuff with the Clippers iirc.

I’d personally say a hypothetical healthy Kawhi is absolutely up there but it just hasn’t happened with some of his knee issues

Kawhis basically been absolutely top tier whenever he’s healthy in the playoffs aside from 2020 in his prime, in 2017 he was right up there with Bron/KD/Curry with their absurd runs, in 2019 he had an ATG run and before his injury vs the bucks it had been averaging 32 a game on basically 50/40/90, in 2021 he had been probably the best player in the playoffs till that point and in 2023 he was amazing the two games he played

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Neither here nor there in context of this vote, but what a resilient bunch the 00s Pistons were (given that data, too).

I think they're probably the best example of just riding a death lineup that I've ever seen. The core 5 largely played together, and they were great, even against great competition.

Makes it arguably the wrong thing to do to ask how good each individual player was - more valuable is understanding how those five, (Billups, Rip, Prince, Sheed, Ben) worked so well together.

They're one of the most unique stories in the history of the league. A championship-winning death lineup compromised almost entirely of other teams' castoffs.

Big Ben was undrafted and, although he carved out a niche as a defensive role player playing decent minutes for Washington and Orlando, he wasn't really a name and I'm sure Orlando didn't think of much when they sent him to Detroit in the S&T that got them Grant Hill. I don't even think Detroit thought they were getting a champion-level defensive anchor when they lost Hill.

Billups bounced around the league - Boston(Rick Pitino gave up on him too quickly), Toronto(expansion team that hadn't really done anything yet), Denver, and Minnesota(bad situation outside of KG) - for five years before landing in Detroit.

Hamilton was famously sent out of Washington by MJ for Jerry Stackhouse in what has widely been regarded as a very bad trade.

Sheed was seen as a talented hothead and perhaps the leader of the Jail Blazers before landing in Detroit and reviving his career.

Prince wasn't a castoff, but he was a late first round pick(#23) that I don't think anyone was going to be as good as he was.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I think it's hard to overstate how important that 2011 title run is to Dirk's legacy. Before that - as Doc's numbers show - he was flat out seen a mentally weak player who shrunk in the big moments - blowing a 2-0 lead in the 06 finals and then getting bounced in the first round by the We Believe Warriors the very next year(resulting in that awkward MVP press conference after the Mavs had been eliminated) was bad for him. He was seen as being done as a #1 option on a contender after that. The Mavs lost in the first round in 2008 and 2010 and in the second round in 2009, and despite Dirk playing really well all three years, the perception was that he couldn't lead a team to a championship. The 2011 run changed all that, made him a champion while going through Kobe, Durant, and LeBron/Wade. I don't know if there's a more legacy-changing individual playoff run for a star player.

Iverson's 2001 Finals run is worth a thought - without that, he's just an inefficient volume scorer who never got past the second round. It was a weak conference and they lost the Finals, but you can bet that Finals run is going to net Iverson a higher place on this list than he would otherwise(given the board's general antipathy towards him).

Walton's 1977 run ought to be mentioned too, given his injury situation.

Maybe KG's 2008 run or Ewing's 1994 Finals run.

But I'm not sure anything tops Dirk's 2011 run in this category.

I don't think anyone forgot this, but I am confused. Are you saying this as a pro for Dirk or a con?

Neither. Dirk's got a strong case here(I'll vote for DRob this round, and Dirk after that probably). It wasn't an argument, just an observation.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think it's hard to overstate how important that 2011 title run is to Dirk's legacy. Before that - as Doc's numbers show - he was flat out seen a mentally weak player who shrunk in the big moments - blowing a 2-0 lead in the 06 finals and then getting bounced in the first round by the We Believe Warriors the very next year(resulting in that awkward MVP press conference after the Mavs had been eliminated) was bad for him. He was seen as being done as a #1 option on a contender after that. The Mavs lost in the first round in 2008 and 2010 and in the second round in 2009, and despite Dirk playing really well all three years, the perception was that he couldn't lead a team to a championship. The 2011 run changed all that, made him a champion while going through Kobe, Durant, and LeBron/Wade. I don't know if there's a more legacy-changing individual playoff run for a star player.

Iverson's 2001 Finals run is worth a thought - without that, he's just an inefficient volume scorer who never got past the second round. It was a weak conference and they lost the Finals, but you can bet that Finals run is going to net Iverson a higher place on this list than he would otherwise(given the board's general antipathy towards him).

Walton's 1977 run ought to be mentioned too, given his injury situation.

Maybe KG's 2008 run or Ewing's 1994 Finals run.

But I'm not sure anything tops Dirk's 2011 run in this category.

I don't think anyone forgot this, but I am confused. Are you saying this as a pro for Dirk or a con?

Neither. Dirk's got a strong case here(I'll vote for DRob this round, and Dirk after that probably). It wasn't an argument, just an observation.

I think it's interesting you put Walton there because Walton was definitely thought of as a big deal. It's only looking back at hindsight that we know that title run means a lot to his legacy.

I think though if we are taking hindsight into account then ironically, the guy who foiled Dirk's run in 06 should get mentioned. If Wade didn't carry his team to a title in 06 he would be perceived incredibly different.

That wasn't even "Wade's team" until he won the title and then mainstream media had to adapt as Wade was never supposed to be "that good". Then we know later injuries derailed him and his other titles would come as a complimentary player.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Wonder why Wade hasn't gotten any kind of traction

He was my second nominee choice after Erving last time, so I'll probably be picking him this time around.

I think the longevity thing really hurts in perception compared to a guy like Paul because they are seen as contemporaries, but Wade's career ended long ago and Paul is still going.

I think it's a combination of peaking early, having a relatively short prime, and having part of that prime obscured by being LeBron's second fiddle. Also, he was the rare 21st century perimeter star who really never developed any kind of outside shooting ability.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I don't think anyone forgot this, but I am confused. Are you saying this as a pro for Dirk or a con?

Neither. Dirk's got a strong case here(I'll vote for DRob this round, and Dirk after that probably). It wasn't an argument, just an observation.

I think it's interesting you put Walton there because Walton was definitely thought of as a big deal. It's only looking back at hindsight that we know that title run means a lot to his legacy.

I think though if we are taking hindsight into account then ironically, the guy who foiled Dirk's run in 06 should get mentioned. If Wade didn't carry his team to a title in 06 he would be perceived incredibly different.

That wasn't even "Wade's team" until he won the title and then mainstream media had to adapt as Wade was never supposed to be "that good". Then we know later injuries derailed him and his other titles would come as a complimentary player.

You're correct on both counts. I did think of mentioning Wade's 2006 run, but I just wasn't sure how much credit you guys give him for the Heatles rings or how much you think they do for his legacy(or if they're seen mostly as LeBron's rings).

[HeartBreakKid]

Neither. Dirk's got a strong case here(I'll vote for DRob this round, and Dirk after that probably). It wasn't an argument, just an observation.

I think it's interesting you put Walton there because Walton was definitely thought of as a big deal. It's only looking back at hindsight that we know that title run means a lot to his legacy.

I think though if we are taking hindsight into account then ironically, the guy who foiled Dirk's run in 06 should get mentioned. If Wade didn't carry his team to a title in 06 he would be perceived incredibly different.

That wasn't even "Wade's team" until he won the title and then mainstream media had to adapt as Wade was never supposed to be "that good". Then we know later injuries derailed him and his other titles would come as a complimentary player.

You're correct on both counts. I did think of mentioning Wade's 2006 run, but I just wasn't sure how much credit you guys give him for the Heatles rings or how much you think they do for his legacy(or if they're seen mostly as LeBron's rings).

I feel like most people forget Wade has 3 rings (on a subconscious level).

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I think it's interesting you put Walton there because Walton was definitely thought of as a big deal. It's only looking back at hindsight that we know that title run means a lot to his legacy.

I think though if we are taking hindsight into account then ironically, the guy who foiled Dirk's run in 06 should get mentioned. If Wade didn't carry his team to a title in 06 he would be perceived incredibly different.

That wasn't even "Wade's team" until he won the title and then mainstream media had to adapt as Wade was never supposed to be "that good". Then we know later injuries derailed him and his other titles would come as a complimentary player.

You're correct on both counts. I did think of mentioning Wade's 2006 run, but I just wasn't sure how much credit you guys give him for the Heatles rings or how much you think they do for his legacy(or if they're seen mostly as LeBron's rings).

I feel like most people forget Wade has 3 rings (on a subconscious level).

I don't know about that...but maybe you're right.

I thought of another one - Barkley's 93 Finals run(along with winning the MVP that year). He'd definitely be looked at differently without that.

[Doctor MJ]

My vote from last time is still intact so I'll repeat it, feeling pretty set of my ordering of Robinson > Karl > Dirk for this project:

Induction Vote 1: David Robinson



Robinson does that natural slide from 2 to 1. As I said in my nomination ruminations, I've spent a lot of time debate Robinson, Malone & Nowitzki, and so I'd expect them to be my next 3 votes.

If we evaluated exclusively bad on what each guy did as the primary scoring option, Robinson would certainly be last among the 3, but aside from Robinson's killer defense, there's the way he so seamlessly was able to slide to a secondary option effectively - and we was pretty effective sliding back to the #1 option after Duncan's 2000 injury.

In the end then, I'm more impressed by the entirety of what Robinson brings on the court, and I do think Robinson's attitude had everything to do with why Spur culture was able to develop the way it did.

Induction Vote 2: Karl Malone

Debating Malone & Nowitzki, I have something of a pull toward Nowitzki. Great attitude allowing the team to keeping building around him and eventually win a title that way. But I do think that Malone was the more consistent superstar performer, and if Dirk didn't win the title I doubt I'd even see this as much of a debate. The fact Dirk won means something big of course, but Dirk also didn't have to top Jordan to get there. Topping LeBron sounds great of course too, and it is great don't get me wrong...but there were kinks in the 1st year Heatles that really got ironed out by the next season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As I'm sure was clear from my Page 1 Early vs Late, that bit of research is on my mind.

Hurts Dirk some, but I think I'll probably still end up voting for him if he's still around at 19.

Chris Paul, honestly, he's falling for me some with the analyses I've done relating to playoff success. Among guards, I expect to be voting for both Dwyane Wade and Steve Nash ahead of him, and I'll have to be thinking carefully about him with regards to others as well.

As noted before with my Wade nomination: He's risen for me in 2023 not with a fundamental change of opinion about him, but out of a clarifying of criteria. I'm still more skeptical than many that his shooting limitations wouldn't hold him back today...but just in terms of his dominance in his day, he really broke through as a young player in a way that we haven't seen since.

I mentioned before that in addition to Wade & Paul that I'm thinking about Moses Malone. I'll probably have Wade & Moses in my 2 Nomination slots next thread when we do that again.

Also, for those starting to entertain Giannis & Jokic, please do look at my page 1 list. I added them both along with others when I did a second pass for players, and yeah, Jokic looks like an entirely different beast.

The next "old-timer" on my list is Bob Pettit. He's not as hard to place as Mikan because he was born later, and kept up what he was doing for a long time, but I'm sure he'll still be controversial.

[Doctor MJ]

Am saying the same thing, considering Giannis has gotten some nominations so far. Which is no knack at Giannis, as he’s a hell of a force in his own right. I think Wade is a similar player prime for prime, however

Isn't Kawhi Leonard then as well?

I’d say he’s a step down compared to the two of them

Makes sense to mention him certainly.

For myself: I hit Kawhi pretty dang hard for the missed time and such and do have him below Jokic & Giannis as a candidate here, though I have to say that when he's health as a playoff performer, I'd have a hard time saying Giannis was as good as him.

[Sign5]

OP has a weird disdain for Wade so these threads aren't in good faith these days.