LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's

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lessthanjake
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#41 » by lessthanjake » Mon Aug 21, 2023 6:05 pm

OhayoKD wrote:And if we raise srs high enough(say...+6?), Lebron's record against vs "actual srs" suddenly becomes historically good! But sure, Shaq played in a tougher conference. His teams also did far worse against those tougher opponents and were generally far worse in the playoffs adjusting for opponent. And of course when we use playoff srs(or surrounding championships/proximity to championships), the 13 Spurs are pretty clearly a different calibre of opponent than the kings or the blazers even if you insist on pretending them coasting in the regular season while Miami went all-out(exacerbating major injury issues that had started a year back) somehow made them "easier".


That’s just objectively untrue. Even just taking the two players being compared here, it’s incorrect. LeBron’s playoff record against 6+ SRS teams is 5 wins 7 losses. Shaq’s playoff record against 6+ SRS teams is 8 wins and 4 losses (and one of those losses was in a playoff series he played 12 minutes in, so it’s really 8 wins and 3 losses). LeBron had trouble beating high SRS teams. This gets obscured by having beaten the 2016 Warriors, but it’s just true overall. With the kind of record he had against 5+ SRS or 6+ SRS teams, it’s quite safe to say he was very lucky not to have to face more of them. Prime Shaq had to face a lot of them, and he typically beat them.

Regardless, this is not a logical extrapolation:
Basically, there’s not actually a whole lot of reason to think LeBron’s teams could’ve gotten through the gauntlets that Shaq’s teams did with the same level of frequency.

Uh, no. The much better playoff teams should do better, not worse. There is more "whole lot of reason" to favor Lebron's winners than Shaq's.


If LeBron’s teams usually lost against high SRS teams, then I think it is safe to say there’s not a whole lot of reason to think they would’ve gotten through gauntlets that included multiple high SRS teams. History tells us that even one high SRS teams presents LeBron with a >50% chance of losing, so adding another high SRS opponent to a playoff run (which is basically what the difference is between LeBron’s title runs and Shaq’s) would likely dramatically reduce the chances of LeBron getting a title.

And you can point to high playoff SRS or whatever if you want, but the whole point here is about resiliency against really great teams. I don’t doubt that LeBron’s teams can disproportionately smack around relatively weak playoff teams (which then causes a high playoff SRS for LeBron’s team). The question is how they’d do against great teams, and the answer over the course of LeBron’s career was not great overall, while for Shaq it was pretty great.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#42 » by homecourtloss » Mon Aug 21, 2023 6:58 pm

Djoker wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Djoker wrote:2000 Shaq
2012 Lebron
2001 Shaq
2002 Shaq
2016 Lebron
2013 Lebron
2020 Lebron

(big gap)

2006 Shaq

Some thoughts:

Lebron's 2016 run is pretty overrated to me. The Warriors by the end of those playoffs were pretty damn far from a 73-win +10 SRS team because of fatigue and injuries. And a big reason the Cavs were down 1-3 to begin with is that Lebron was subpar in the first four games. Of course he was amazing in Game 5 & 6 and good in Game 7 but if Lebron plays better from the start of the series the Cavs would never be down to begin with and the whole coming back from 1-3 down narrative wouldn't apply. If the Cavs won this series in 5-6 games as they probably should have people would never call it a GOAT run as they do.

Lebron's 2012 run on the other hand is underrated if that's possible. It's comfortably his best title run in my eyes and what he did against Boston was incredible. It's the most unstoppable version of Lebron ever and he was a great 2-way player.


James had a better defensive season in 2016, arguably the best ever by wing who was his team’s primary offense creator.


In 2016 his defense was better but in 2012 his offense was better.


Eh, not really overall in the playoffs I don’t think. Biggest difference was that James couldn’t by a FT in 2016 vs. 2012 even though 2016 LeBron lived at the rim and absorbed a tremendous amount of contact as well got hand checked/held all the time.

Regular season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.9%, .429
2016: 45.9%, .347

Post season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.7%, .466
2016: 46.0%, .297

Also, % of points in the paint: 2012—45.0% (50.7% in PS); 2016–55.4% (57.6%, highest of career in both RS and PS). Points off of turnovers was about the same.

It’s close as both were ATG seasons; the numbers were look a lot closer or even skew to 2016 with a reasonable FTr.

This doesn’t even go into the different level of creation in 2012 vs. 2016.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#43 » by Djoker » Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:56 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
Djoker wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
James had a better defensive season in 2016, arguably the best ever by wing who was his team’s primary offense creator.


In 2016 his defense was better but in 2012 his offense was better.


Eh, not really overall in the playoffs I don’t think. Biggest difference was that James couldn’t by a FT in 2016 vs. 2012 even though 2016 LeBron lived at the rim and absorbed a tremendous amount of contact as well got hand checked/held all the time.

Regular season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.9%, .429
2016: 45.9%, .347

Post season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.7%, .466
2016: 46.0%, .297

Also, % of points in the paint: 2012—45.0% (50.7% in PS); 2016–55.4% (57.6%, highest of career in both RS and PS). Points off of turnovers was about the same.

It’s close as both were ATG seasons; the numbers were look a lot closer or even skew to 2016 with a reasonable FTr.

This doesn’t even go into the different level of creation in 2012 vs. 2016.


Lebron handled the ball a lot more in 2016 and had better spacing which makes his playmaking look better.

The scoring is clearly in 2012 Lebron's favor...

2012 Lebron: 29.0 pts per 75 on +4.9 rTS (101.4 opponent DRtg)
2016 Lebron: 26.7 pts per 75 on +4.4 rTS (104.0 opponent DRtg)

To me, Heat Lebron > 2nd Cavs Lebron on offense. It's more impressive what he did in Miami because he shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system whereas with the Cavs it was Lebron-ball almost all the time.

Lebron also had a better regular season in 2012.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#44 » by homecourtloss » Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:04 pm

Djoker wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Djoker wrote:
In 2016 his defense was better but in 2012 his offense was better.


Eh, not really overall in the playoffs I don’t think. Biggest difference was that James couldn’t by a FT in 2016 vs. 2012 even though 2016 LeBron lived at the rim and absorbed a tremendous amount of contact as well got hand checked/held all the time.

Regular season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.9%, .429
2016: 45.9%, .347

Post season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.7%, .466
2016: 46.0%, .297

Also, % of points in the paint: 2012—45.0% (50.7% in PS); 2016–55.4% (57.6%, highest of career in both RS and PS). Points off of turnovers was about the same.

It’s close as both were ATG seasons; the numbers were look a lot closer or even skew to 2016 with a reasonable FTr.

This doesn’t even go into the different level of creation in 2012 vs. 2016.


Lebron handled the ball a lot more in 2016 and had better spacing which makes his playmaking look better.

The scoring is clearly in 2012 Lebron's favor...

2012 Lebron: 29.0 pts per 75 on +4.9 rTS (101.4 opponent DRtg)
2016 Lebron: 26.7 pts per 75 on +4.4 rTS (104.0 opponent DRtg)

To me, Heat Lebron > 2nd Cavs Lebron on offense. It's more impressive what he did in Miami because he shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system whereas with the Cavs it was Lebron-ball almost all the time.

Lebron also had a better regular season in 2012.


I agree about 2012 regular season, though he was younger and had a more help defensively. Also, I’m not really vested in arguing that 2016 is categorically better though I think in many ways he was. Both are 99.9th percentile seasons and both have their advantages on offense. I just think 2016 LeBron at his very best was about as much a two way of a two way wing there can be. FWIW, when RPM was a little more stable.

SideshowBob wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
jalengreen wrote:the max impact player would probably have to be a big because you would have to be the most impactful defensively.

magic level offensive impact + russell level defensive impact = lot of impact..


Probably this. I will say,mthough, that James in the 2016 Finals showed the biggest leaps in RPM over a series that I have ever seen. Sideshow calculated it (though as Sideshow points out, you can’t really do it this way :lol: points out, we can’t really do it this way) out at like +9 offense and +6 defense against a 73 win team.

SideshowBob wrote:.


Moving the needle to that extent with just 3 games in what was a [~239,700 possessions x 2000 Lineups] dataset should have been impossible.



As for the scoring, I think the gap can be mostly explained in the dearth of FTs even though James lived at the rim and the paint in 2016 as you just read in the previous post.

As for the old “sharing the ball,” “ball dominance,” arguments, look at the following:

% of FGs made unassisted (playoffs in parentheses

2012: 62.6% (55.6%)
2016: 59.6% (33.3%, lowest of career)

For someone who “shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system,” he sure did get assisted a lot more in Cleveland in 2016, especially in the playoffs. Also, he was absolutely sharing the ball with Kyrie:

Image

Kyrie had the ball more in his hands in Cleveland than anywhere else:

Image

We don’t have data possession time data before 2013-2014, but we do have usage% (playoffs in parentheses):

2012: James 32.0% (33.4%), Wade 31.3 (29.3%)
2016: James 31.4% (30.7%), Kyrie 29.4% (30.4%)

Not sure what the argument is that LeBron “shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system,” though it’s true he was the meastro for the 2016 and 2017 offenses, two of the greatest post season offenses ever.

ORtg ON-OFF (playoffs in parentheses)

2016: +15.4 (+16.0)
2017: +15.3 (+24.8)

2012: Wade+James 112.3 ORtg (113.8 in playoffs)
2016: James+Love+Kyrie 115.4 (122.6)
2016: James without Love or Kyrie 110.8 (116.4)
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#45 » by rk2023 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:05 pm

Djoker wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Djoker wrote:
In 2016 his defense was better but in 2012 his offense was better.


Eh, not really overall in the playoffs I don’t think. Biggest difference was that James couldn’t by a FT in 2016 vs. 2012 even though 2016 LeBron lived at the rim and absorbed a tremendous amount of contact as well got hand checked/held all the time.

Regular season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.9%, .429
2016: 45.9%, .347

Post season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.7%, .466
2016: 46.0%, .297

Also, % of points in the paint: 2012—45.0% (50.7% in PS); 2016–55.4% (57.6%, highest of career in both RS and PS). Points off of turnovers was about the same.

It’s close as both were ATG seasons; the numbers were look a lot closer or even skew to 2016 with a reasonable FTr.

This doesn’t even go into the different level of creation in 2012 vs. 2016.


Lebron handled the ball a lot more in 2016 and had better spacing which makes his playmaking look better.

The scoring is clearly in 2012 Lebron's favor...

2012 Lebron: 29.0 pts per 75 on +4.9 rTS (101.4 opponent DRtg)
2016 Lebron: 26.7 pts per 75 on +4.4 rTS (104.0 opponent DRtg)

To me, Heat Lebron > 2nd Cavs Lebron on offense. It's more impressive what he did in Miami because he shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system whereas with the Cavs it was Lebron-ball almost all the time.

Lebron also had a better regular season in 2012.


IIRC, Kyrie was on-ball (in terms of total touches, T.O.P., Dribbles and seconds per touch) more than James was for most of 2015-17 - so unsure if "LBJ-Ball almost all the time" is applicable here - even though 15-18 Cleveland was more conducive to playing that style top to bottom as a team than the Heat were.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#46 » by rk2023 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:10 pm

For playoff AuPM/G, the 7 MVP level runs are ranked as follows:

2016 > 2012 > 2001 > 2000 > 2020 > 2013 > 2002.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#47 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 22, 2023 5:17 am

homecourtloss wrote:
Djoker wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Eh, not really overall in the playoffs I don’t think. Biggest difference was that James couldn’t by a FT in 2016 vs. 2012 even though 2016 LeBron lived at the rim and absorbed a tremendous amount of contact as well got hand checked/held all the time.

Regular season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.9%, .429
2016: 45.9%, .347

Post season % of shots at the rim, FTr
2012: 32.7%, .466
2016: 46.0%, .297

Also, % of points in the paint: 2012—45.0% (50.7% in PS); 2016–55.4% (57.6%, highest of career in both RS and PS). Points off of turnovers was about the same.

It’s close as both were ATG seasons; the numbers were look a lot closer or even skew to 2016 with a reasonable FTr.

This doesn’t even go into the different level of creation in 2012 vs. 2016.


Lebron handled the ball a lot more in 2016 and had better spacing which makes his playmaking look better.

The scoring is clearly in 2012 Lebron's favor...

2012 Lebron: 29.0 pts per 75 on +4.9 rTS (101.4 opponent DRtg)
2016 Lebron: 26.7 pts per 75 on +4.4 rTS (104.0 opponent DRtg)

To me, Heat Lebron > 2nd Cavs Lebron on offense. It's more impressive what he did in Miami because he shared the ball with Wade and played in more of an equal opportunity system whereas with the Cavs it was Lebron-ball almost all the time.

Lebron also had a better regular season in 2012.


I agree about 2012 regular season, though he was younger and had a more help defensively. Also, I’m not really vested in arguing that 2016 is categorically better though I think in many ways he was. Both are 99.9th percentile seasons and both have their advantages on offense. I just think 2016 LeBron at his very best was about as much a two way of a two way wing there can be. FWIW, when RPM was a little more stable.

Yeah, why are we pitting Lebron vs Lebron?. The question is Lebron vs Shaq. When there is a discrepancy between apparent situational value/goodness and what we think should be a player's peak we have 3 options:
There are a bunch of explanations for the impact-drop(playing pf instead of sf, overlap with a similar player, staggered lineups with co-stars), but an important part of scaling is looking the evidence for the year you're scaling a player above, no? There are three-ways to scale internally with an assumed peak:
-> Assume all evidence outside said peak is noise and curve everything down below aforementioned peak(this is what Ben does)
-> Assume the peak is noise and curve it up above everything else with the better evidence
-> Assume both can be noise and have your assessments meet somewhere in between

Djoker is clearly angling for approach 1. And frankly, I don't think it's worth humoring. If he looked better in the second cleveland stint on very strong championship-calibre teams, I'm not sure what reason there is for biasing our analysis towards Miami(where Lebron looks great anyway if we account for his team's and his own playoff elevation..,)

Needing to force this tangent speaks to Shaq being a worse player.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#48 » by Djoker » Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:32 pm

Peak Shaq to me is better than any version of Lebron.

The debate there was whether 2012 or 2016 Lebron was better and that had nothing to do with Shaq.
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Re: LeBron's 4 rings vs Shaq's 

Post#49 » by PhiEaglesfan712 » Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:29 pm

2001 - most dominant playoff performance
2016 - LeBron defeated the 73-win Warriors, coming back from 3-1 down
2020 - LeBron's most consistent playoff run
2012 - LeBron winning the finals in 5 gets the nod over 2013
2013 - LeBron nearly losing the finals drops this here
2006 - Shaq was past his peak by then
2000 - Tim Donaghy fixing scandal drops this as the Lakers should have lost to the Blazers
2002 - This is clearly last, the Donaghy fixing scandal, plus this season wasn't as dominant (Lakers should have lost to the Kings)

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