RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #18 (Dirk Nowitzki)

[ceiling raiser]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

[AEnigma]

I'd also note that Dirk's Mavs never had to face a team as good as EITHER of the '96 or '97 Bulls.

1) I would put the 2014 Spurs on par with the 1997 Bulls, but assuming you mean prime, sure. Nevertheless, Malone regularly lost to worse teams than that, and he did not perform well in those Finals.

2) You have said this twice now, so I suppose it bears correcting: the 1996 Jazz were eliminated before the Finals after Malone went 8/22 from the field and 5/10 from the line in a four-point Game 7 loss.

[One_and_Done]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I'd say so, because not only do I have him as last in this group, but I have him behind guys who aren't even nominated yet.

[therealbig3]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I’m really not seeing how anyone could rank Paul OBVIOUSLY ahead of Dirk on a peak vs peak basis. You can prefer Paul, that’s fine, but to act like there’s any sort of meaningful gap between the two is weird to me, because I don’t see it.

Then of course you get to Dirk’s superior longevity and overall reliability in the playoffs, and as far as a career perspective is concerned, it’s a pretty easy choice in that respect…in favor of Dirk.

[rk2023]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I have concerns about how well he can scale up towards being a #1 option on a championship winning / true contending team. For the role of being a risk-averse offensive QB, he grades out very highly in an advanced stats / impact proxy sense - and he’s surely one of the all-time regular season guys in terms of maximizing team play and orchestrating elite offenses. Such offenses aren’t as impressive in a playoff setting though, which I would guess is one of the biggest puzzles ITO his candidacy here.

In spite of similar box stats / general roles, I much rather prefer the less risk-averse and more aggressive exploiting approach of Magic/Nash on offense in a PS setting (I’d have to look further - but my guess is more granular playmaking metrics like Box OC and Passer Rating depict this). TLDR, for an offensive primary to be gamebreaking come playoff time - I either prefer GOAT caliber playmaking like that of Magic/Nash or a scoring approach where one can take over a game without an Ill-advised “just send it” mindset. Out of the grouping, Erving was able to do so in an ABA that was perhaps better than touted regarding talent and competition and Dirk did it. Same concerns here with Malone and Durant (the latter whom I’d say was a 1-B in 2018 at-least). Nash wasn’t even able to win a title in his own right. I think all of their cases boil down to some luck, some individual limitations (eg. defense for Nash, offensive ceiling for Malone and Durant), flawed rosters (though I think better floor raisers have made title teams work with such). Regardless, I don’t see too much of an advantage or too much a disadvantage for Paul compared to Durant or Malone. Dirk and Erving (for those more bullish on his ABA years) becomes a harder sell however

[iggymcfrack]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I’m really not seeing how anyone could rank Paul OBVIOUSLY ahead of Dirk on a peak vs peak basis. You can prefer Paul, that’s fine, but to act like there’s any sort of meaningful gap between the two is weird to me, because I don’t see it.

Then of course you get to Dirk’s superior longevity and overall reliability in the playoffs, and as far as a career perspective is concerned, it’s a pretty easy choice in that respect…in favor of Dirk.

I do think Paul vs. Dirk is a pretty close debate even if I’d pick Paul, but I don’t really see any argument for Durant over Paul. They’ve been contemporaries for 16 years and KD’s been better, what, maybe 4 or 5 of those years? The impact difference is massive. The only real argument for KD is rings, but if you care that much about rings as a secondary player, why not nominate Pippen instead?

[iggymcfrack]

As for longevity, I’m not sure Dirk really has an edge over Paul. Dirk has a lot of empty calorie seasons early and late in his career. Paul has 14 seasons with a BPM of 5 or higher compared to 9 for Dirk. Even if you cut out the seasons with playoff injuries, CP3 still has more years with a significant impact.

[One_and_Done]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I’m really not seeing how anyone could rank Paul OBVIOUSLY ahead of Dirk on a peak vs peak basis. You can prefer Paul, that’s fine, but to act like there’s any sort of meaningful gap between the two is weird to me, because I don’t see it.

Then of course you get to Dirk’s superior longevity and overall reliability in the playoffs, and as far as a career perspective is concerned, it’s a pretty easy choice in that respect…in favor of Dirk.

I do think Paul vs. Dirk is a pretty close debate even if I’d pick Paul, but I don’t really see any argument for Durant over Paul. They’ve been contemporaries for 16 years and KD’s been better, what, maybe 4 or 5 of those years? The impact difference is massive. The only real argument for KD is rings, but if you care that much about rings as a secondary player, why not nominate Pippen instead?

I don't remember Pippen winning many finals MVPs over Jordan. I don't remember him winning any MVPs either, or having six top 5 finishes for MVP. Comparing Pippen to Durant is comical tbh.

[tsherkin]

I don’t really see any argument for Durant over Paul.

Durant is one of the greatest scorers we've ever seen. He has 4 scoring titles, he's hilariously efficient, and he continues smashing away like a demon into his mid-30s. This is a dude who has been at +7% rTS or better since the 2012 season and had a 5-year stretch at +9% rTS... and then had another of those years in 2021 after returning from his achilles injury. He's nasty. For all the complaints about him, he's also a 59.8% TS scorer in the playoffs and popped 59.9% this past season.

He was ROY, he has an MVP, top 5 in the MVP vote 6 times, top 2 4 times (including the win).

It's okay to argue for Paul over Durant, there are justifications, but to say you "don't really see any argument" seems a bit farcical.

[Doctor MJ]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I don't know if it's the "biggest", but what I've been posting about are my concerns about his teams being much more likely to collapse in playoff serious than pretty much any rival in history. People debate how much of it is due to injury, and how much of it is due to luck beyond his person, but I think it's something everyone should recognize as needed to research for themselves beyond simply what they remember.

Related to this but worth mentioning is that while Paul's total +/- numbers in the playoffs look excellent, they are not immune from the trend. These aren't situations where Paul keeps doing his thing and the team collapses are happening in the few minutes when he's off the court.

Now to be clear, in the end I think what he did accomplish in the playoffs matters fundamentally more than how much it diverges from what we'd expect relative to the regular season, and he accomplished a great deal. But the above has a lot to do with why I end up with a different stance than one might expect given my use of +/- stats. I still rank him very highly, but not quite as highly as I would if I had as much faith in him against top competition in playoff series as I do some other guys.

[trelos6]

CP3 vs KD best seasons, IMO

KD 16
KD 17
KD 18
KD 14
KD 13
CP 15
CP 09
CP 14
CP 13
KD 12

I have KD with the top 5 seasons, and 6 of the top 10 seasons between the pair.

[Doctor MJ]

Been out for a few threads, ready to reengage.

Open question: what’s the biggest argument against Chris Paul here? At 10 it’s tough, but now I think he’s clearly better than the remainder of the players at his best, and has put together an impressive book of longevity. He’s been overrated the last couple years, but I wouldn’t be caught dead taking Dirk or Durant over him to start a team, let along the older guys.

Am I missing something?

I’m really not seeing how anyone could rank Paul OBVIOUSLY ahead of Dirk on a peak vs peak basis. You can prefer Paul, that’s fine, but to act like there’s any sort of meaningful gap between the two is weird to me, because I don’t see it.

Then of course you get to Dirk’s superior longevity and overall reliability in the playoffs, and as far as a career perspective is concerned, it’s a pretty easy choice in that respect…in favor of Dirk.

I do think Paul vs. Dirk is a pretty close debate even if I’d pick Paul, but I don’t really see any argument for Durant over Paul. They’ve been contemporaries for 16 years and KD’s been better, what, maybe 4 or 5 of those years? The impact difference is massive. The only real argument for KD is rings, but if you care that much about rings as a secondary player, why not nominate Pippen instead?

In general, I'm more confident in Durant's ability to do his thing against top competition, so while I agree that over the course of regular seasons Paul has typically been the more valuable player, the importance of playoff basketball helps Durant a great deal for me.

Re: rings as a secondary player; why not Pippen. while I agree that Durant wasn't the most valuable player of those Warriors, that doesn't mean he was the same as Pippen. Durant's just plain on another level as a scorer, and while that's certainly not everything, I think it makes clear what might cause someone to rank Durant ahead.

For the record, I have Durant in my Top 5 in 8 seasons while I have Pippen there 4 times. I think one of the things we have to remember is that Pippen really wasn't that old after he left the Bulls, but really never had another season in the same league again. I think it likely that that back injury he had at the end of '97-98 really ended his prime considerably earlier than what he might have been able to do.

Pippen and Reggie Miller came from the same draft class. If Scottie aged as gracefully as Reggie, I might have him considerably higher than I do. As Is I have him pretty high, but do have him below Durant & Paul.

[Doctor MJ]

As for longevity, I’m not sure Dirk really has an edge over Paul. Dirk has a lot of empty calorie seasons early and late in his career. Paul has 14 seasons with a BPM of 5 or higher compared to 9 for Dirk. Even if you cut out the seasons with playoff injuries, CP3 still has more years with a significant impact.

Dirk led his team in +/- 14 times. That's way above everyone other than LeBron for all the years we have.

[One_and_Done]

As far as Dirk's 'longevity advantage', how much of a longevity issue can KD really have when he's 15th all-time in points scored? We're mainly focused on 10 years of Dirk's career, and while those other years are not irrelevant I don't think minor advantages in longevity matters enough to vault him over an otherwise superior player.

[tsherkin]

As far as Dirk's 'longevity advantage', how much of a longevity issue can KD really have when he's 15th all-time in points scored? We're mainly focused on 10 years of Dirk's career, and while those other years are not irrelevant I don't think minor advantages in longevity matters enough to vault him over an otherwise superior player.

Well, durability is more the concern for KD. He has a higher peak in terms of scoring average, which helps contribute toward that "all-time in points scored" deal. He's just finished his 15th season, and played under 70 games in 7 of them, including the last 3. Minding, of course, the 2012 lockout (he tied for most GP that season with 66) and that there were only 72 games in 2021 (though he played 35 games that year).

Dirk had a 21-season career and, at the moment, played 536 more games than Durant has. It's a sizeable difference right now. Of course, he wasn't All-Star Dirk the entire time. 2017 and later are somewhat irrelevant, except for his BS career achievement All-Star selection in 2019.

Basically what I'm getting at is that total points don't really sell much in terms of longevity when you're discussing these guys. You can make the argument that Durant's scoring elevates him above Dirk, but then you're going to run at least a little into the PS discussion. Regardless, Dirk has played about 6.5 full seasons' worth of games beyond what Durant has mattered, so at least right now, that's a sizeable difference in time on court to consider.

[70sFan]

Looking at my big board I'm a little generous with the last few KD years, but even having them as a weak MVP value, I still think KD has the highest peak of the current group.

Looking at KD's scoring

Could you show me your breakdown for Durant and Julius? Mine are completely different.

[homecourtloss]

Vote: Dirk

In a nutshell, I like his longevity over David Robinson’s, and I like his peak better than Karl Malone’s. He was an impactful offensive player at a position where you don’t usually get offensive impact, and he was creating that offensive impact by scoring efficiently on difficult, and for most people, inefficient shots, many of which really had no defense for them. This left more efficient shots for his teammates, which helped his teams create some really good offenses, even though his passing didn’t directly create those other shots, but his spacing, gravity, and movement (earlier in his career) did. If he were a better passer, you can see a case for him much higher than this. As it is, his low turnover economy somewhat ameliorates for his lack of creation.

Dirk: ….The weird bit is that this player is a big, making him unusually valuable on offense. This player was a floor spacer, generating very few offensive boards for a big but doing a great job with defensive boards. He was at best an average defender for his position. His major selling point is that he has incredibly inelastic scoring; throughout the playoffs you could count on him for high usage high efficiency without issue; building strong offenses around him was easy; it just took unusual lineup constructions to get the most out of him.

He was highly versatile on offense, too. Early on when playing with Steve Nash, he was more of a finisher, and he was assisted on the greater percentage of his shots. Then he became the hub.

It’s really interesting to note Nowitzki’s changed statline upon Nash leaving. Here are his rTS%, 3PAr, FTr, USG%, OBPM and 2P Assisted% for the two years before losing Nash and the two years after:

2003: +6.2% shooting, 0.262 3PAr, 0.368 FTr, 27.4% Usage, +5.8 OBPM, 58.7% 2PAstd
2004: +4.7% shooting, 0.221 3PAr, 0.323 FTr, 24.5% Usage, +3.8 OBPM, 67.0% 2PAstd
2005: +4.9% shooting, 0.158 3PAr, 0.490 FTr, 28.7% Usage, +5.8 OBPM, 49.1% 2PAstd
2006: +5.3% shooting, 0.173 3PAr, 0.382 FTr, 30.0% Usage, +7.8 OBPM, 43.8% 2PAstd

While he wasn’t a highly impactful defender relative to height and position, he was slightly or solidly positive for the majority of his career, and posted in a strong career DRAPM in JE’s RS+PS set.



He’s also in rarefied air in Taylor’s 1994-2017 AuPM converted to CORP



The early 2000s Dallas Mavericks with young Steve Nash and Dirk as the hub reached some impressive Heights.



And then as well in his later years

[trelos6]

Looking at my big board I'm a little generous with the last few KD years, but even having them as a weak MVP value, I still think KD has the highest peak of the current group.

Looking at KD's scoring

Could you show me your breakdown for Durant and Julius? Mine are completely different.

KD

MVP: 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21 (short rs, great ps)
Weak MVP: 12
All NBA: 10, 11, 22, 23
All-star: 09

Dr J

MVP: 76
Weak MVP: 73, 74, 75, 77, 80, 81, 82, 83
All NBA: 78, 79, 84
All Star: 72, 85

Even if you put 21 as an All NBA level due to missed games in rs, I still have KD ahead.

[iggymcfrack]

CP3 vs KD best seasons, IMO

KD 16
KD 17
KD 18
KD 14
KD 13
CP 15
CP 09
CP 14
CP 13
KD 12

I have KD with the top 5 seasons, and 6 of the top 10 seasons between the pair.

RAPTOR covers every season since 2014 and it has regular season and postseason included. It has the top seasons as:

CP 15
CP 16
CP 17
CP 18
KD 17

97-14 RAPM also covers regular season and postseason and is probably the best publicly available tool for the previous era IMO. It has the top seasons before 2014 as:

CP 11
CP 09
KD 11
KD 10
CP 10

[OhayoKD]

Looking at my big board I'm a little generous with the last few KD years, but even having them as a weak MVP value, I still think KD has the highest peak of the current group.

Looking at KD's scoring

Could you show me your breakdown for Durant and Julius? Mine are completely different.

KD

MVP: 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21 (short rs, great ps)
Weak MVP: 12
All NBA: 10, 11, 22, 23
All-star: 09

Dr J

MVP: 76
Weak MVP: 73, 74, 75, 77, 80, 81, 82, 83
All NBA: 78, 79, 84
All Star: 72, 85

Even if you put 21 as an All NBA level due to missed games in rs, I still have KD ahead.

Assuming we're using similar scales I don't think any of 17-21 can be considered "mvp" level regular-seasons. And if, taking those playoff numbers at face value, you've got them up to mvp, I think the reverse would tank 13, 14, and 16