Post#570 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Aug 24, 2023 7:27 pm
I've been giving this a lot of thought, and have tried to be as equitable to all sides as I can be. I think the most likely scenario remains that Lance is still on the team for this season at least. And maybe he makes his way onto the field at some point, or at least challenges Darnold for the #2 job (it's unclear how much of a chance he'll have to do that). Personally, I want to see Trey playing as much as humanly possible.
Now, in terms of where things went wrong, I think arguably the biggest factor, and one that gets some press but not nearly as much as it should, was Lance's finger injury his rookie year. It derailed what was shaping up to be a possible battle between he and Garoppolo for the starting job. Reports coming out this season indicate that the injury had pretty profound impacts on Lance's already shaky mechanics, and affected him as he tried to assume the starter's role in his second year.
Due to the finger injury, Lance was frankly bad as a passer during last offseason. Because of that, when he got into the regular season, Shanahan didn't trust him as a thrower. So he did what probably seemed entirely logical as a coach: he focused on what Lance could still do effectively, and that was run the ball. And, of course, that directly or indirectly led to Lance's injury and missing an entire year during which he was supposed to be developing. And no one is to blame for that one. Lance hit his finger on a helmet, as QBs have done as long as football has existed, and it completely threw off his career arc. It was a fluke, an awful break (literally and figuratively), but it's the sort of thing that happens in this game. However, acknowledging the finger and setting it aside, we still have blown opportunities all over the place.
As far as the front office, I have disagreed with so many of their decisions surrounding Lance. First and foremost, they concluded they needed an elite QB to win in this league. Hurray!!! Absolutely the right decision. They also decided they wanted a guy on a rookie deal so they could surround him with talent. Again, that's great process. BUT, the benefit of the rookie contract is that it allows you to maintain talent and depth around that guy. If you trade three first-rounders and a third for the guy, you are severely inhibiting your ability to surround him with talent. Perhaps more importantly, you are likely depleting your own pool of stars so that, just as that guy starts making the big bucks, you're missing out of the cheap stars who could help you flesh out the roster.
I also hated that they traded up - and gave up so much to do so - months before the draft. When we learned years later that they did so WITHOUT A CLEAR TARGET, I was simply blown away. How do you make that move without having done like 90% of your homework and feeling to the core of your being that a difference-maker is there? It's inexcusable. I think there's also a very strong argument they could have moved up to 6, for instance, held onto one of the first-round picks, and still gotten Lance. Hell, we'll never know, but they might have been able to get Lance at 12.
Once they had the pick, they started to scout the guys in earnest. And I will never understand the thought process that led them to Lance. There was a lot to like about Lance in college. Natural leader. Big arm. Big, athletic, strong. He led a dominant program. But there were so many concerns, too. Tiny sample size, with just one full season on a run-heavy team. 318 pass attempts. Low level of competition. In Shanahan's KNBR interview yesterday, he talked about how well Lance had done running up the middle in college. I wanted to scream at the radio, "That was against tiny, FCS defenders!!! How many of those guys are even in the league at present?!?!"
Because of the lower level of competition Lance was facing, and the relative strength of NDSU, he may as well have been playing on Alabama for all the help he got from his supporting cast. He routinely had guys wide open. He didn't have to make tight window throws. He didn't have to see the field at anything close to an NFL level. Hell, he never even had to put together a game-winning drive. What should have been clear to the FO was that he struggled with accuracy. Despite the big arm, he was not very good throwing downfield. And he was arguably worse throwing in the short area, where his passes would just be bizarrely off at times. I watched a lot of his film and came away thinking he was a second-round talent.
Despite athletic similarities, Fields was clearly superior in every physical area - he's an inch shorter, but his arms are an inch longer. More accurate thrower, more explosive runner. And he had the experience against top-notch opponents that Lance was missing. I can't say what happened in the interview room, on the white board, etc., but just from scouting their games, Fields should have been well ahead of Lance. And I even had Jones ahead of him, given Lance's inaccuracy, though I was glad they took a shot on the upside of Lance given what they had given up.
Once Lance was on the team, I don't have a huge problem with them starting Garoppolo over him. Lance wasn't ready, and the finger injury compounded things. Garoppolo was the obvious choice at that point, and it paid off with a legit playoff run. But going into Lance's second year, watching him struggle with the finger injury, they handed him the starting job. Again, I don't have a fundamental problem with the plan to let Jimmy walk as he was way too expensive before the restructure to keep. But if that's the mentality, and you have concerns with Lance's throwing, why in the world did you plan to back him up with Nate Sudfeld? And sure, they added Purdy too, and to some points above, you do have to give them some credit for developing Purdy, but don't kid yourself that he was anything but a shock to them as much as the rest of the league. You don't pick someone dead last in the draft if you think they've got Purdy's 2022 performance in them.
So Lance as the shaky starter, backed up by Sudfeld was the plan going into the 2022 offseason. What a joke. Thank God it didn't shake out that way. Again, I think Kyle does bear some blame for the leg injury, but knowing what we now know about Lance's finger and how it affected its passing, it's hard for me to be all that critical.
Which brings us to this offseason. I have questioned the decision to bring Darnold into this team. He has tantalizing arm talent and athleticism (not elite there, but pretty darn good), but he just seems like one of those guys who doesn't have it. And those guys rarely change their stripes in my experience. They can to a degree. Alex Smith may be the best example I can think of, but he was never better than a solid QB (granted that's pretty great for a #2 guy). But Darnold has shown over and over that he is slow to process. He can't handle a pass rush.
We hear about Darnold's resurgent season in Carolina, but in his last NFL action, he went 5 of 15 for 43 yards (!!!!!) with two interceptions and two fumbles (neither lost) in a 10-7 win against a 7-10 team. The week before that, sure, he threw for 341 yards and three TDs, but he also threw an INT and fumbled three times (two lost) in losing to what was then a 7-8 team. Those were starts 54 and 55 in his career, and we think all this guy needs is a change of scenery? His QBR (not perfect, but better than passer rating IMO) was below 51 in four of six starts last year. He only won a single game in which he threw for more than 200 yards, and was 3-0 in games in which he threw for under 164 yards. We overpaid for mediocrity, and that's being generous in my view.
And then, despite Darnold's extensive experience, we had him split reps with our young and inexperienced QB who DESPERATELY needed as many as he could possibly get. Practice is an area where we should expect Darnold to do well relative to his career to date. He doesn't have to worry about getting hit. He's not going to fumble, which has been a huge issue for him. He can throw to his first read without being penalized as much because maybe the rookie receiver didn't run the right route or he's still familiarizing himself with the guys. And even then, reports - granted how much can we truly rely on those? - are that he and Lance are performing in a fairly similar way.
And look, Darnold flat out played better in the preseason games. Lance was AWFUL in the first one. But that is perhaps to be expected. He was reluctant to pull the trigger, wasn't trusting his eyes. And if that was it for him, then I get it. But it's his first live action in ages, he just hasn't played much, and he's terrified of making a mistake, which, ironically, leads to more mistakes. A rational person would at least give him two more preseason games to see how he responds. Instead, Shanahan has effectively come out and said he made up his mind after that game. And that's absurd. Because Lance did in fact bounce back in his second preseason game - admittedly after some significant early struggles. Meanwhile, Darnold looked pretty good. He threw the ball well. He had some tough breaks with INTs that weren't his fault killing drives. But he continued to show flashes of that inconsistent guy. Took a couple ugly sacks. Struggled to move the team down the field despite ample opportunities.
So now, as the head coach, Shanahan has basically decided to ignore Sam Darnold's first five seasons because he threw several nice balls in a preseason game, and not give Lance any chance to settle in and show some development - development which Darnold has basically never shown. And now he's going to give Darnold practice snaps ahead of Lance that Lance so desperately needs. It just...I have no words. Virtually nothing about it makes any sense whatsoever.
Having said all of that, Lance is not blameless in this, either. It's not his fault he was taken third overall, and that we sold the farm to get him. It's not his fault that he got hurt, although he did a weird half-slide on the play in which he was injured last year that appeared to contribute to the injury. But as said here and elsewhere, you can't expect unlimited chances in the NFL. Even when you're the third pick. He got a shot to compete this year, maybe not for the starting job, but certainly for the second spot. He was healthy. He had improved his mechanics. He needed to seize his opportunity, and he couldn't beat out Sam frickin' Darnold. I'm definitely not giving up on Trey Lance ever becoming a good NFL QB. But if you can't beat out Sam Darnold in year three, regardless of any other circumstances, it's a really bad look. Lance should have made this an easy decision for the FO. Instead, he did what he's always done with the Niners. Came out ice cold. Warmed up as things went along, but never truly humming the way you'd like to see. Ironically, the very last action we saw him in was probably the best he's ever played, and I personally would love to see more of him this week before a decision is made. But again, if Lance hasn't made that decision for the coach by now, he's got to own a solid chunk of that responsibility.
Overall, it's just a really sad and frustrating situation. The FO still has time to make us forget - or at least forgive - this debacle. But they need to seal the deal. And they've put a ton of pressure on themselves and Purdy to do it. I will say one thing for this FO: they have balls. Keeping Lance at #2 is the easier decision. It won't get second-guessed, even if he comes in and struggles. They are the antithesis of sunk cost around here. And overall that's probably a good thing. Let's just hope it's not another DJ Reed situation, but magnified a hundred fold.
