RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Karl Malone)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#121 » by scrabbarista » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:03 pm

ShaqAttac wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
ShaqAttac wrote:the rox fans here dont seem to like guys who play d


I love Kevin G. He's 14th on my list. Also, I'm not a Rockets fan.

Also, Dirk played defense.

and his d and o had less impact than kgs d and o?

are you just looking at per?


I'm mostly going off of watching them play. On paper I think it's a wash.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#122 » by penbeast0 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:04 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
I love Kevin G. He's 14th on my list. Also, I'm not a Rockets fan.

Also, Dirk played defense.


How well and for how many seasons? I remember him as a defensive sieve for a big for most of the first half of his career but improving to maybe average before falling off again as he aged.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#123 » by Owly » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:06 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
Owly wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:Y'all did Dirk dirty.

He should be no lower than 13th and you don't even have him in your five nominees for 19th?

Disgraceful.

EDIT:

I see he's 18th (not yet posted in the main thread). My point stands. Dirk 18th and Kevin G 9th is laughable.

Suspect few agree exactly with the ranking (inherent in aggregation). And you may well not like the reasoning. But I would say:

1) Do check out the reasoning. You will then at least know why your view differed from the voting results and can more meaningfully engage with them, even if you think them wrong.
2) Criteria can reasonably differ.
3) The fairly forceful language ("disgraceful" and "laughable") ... perhaps moreso with the absence of reasoning ... might make it harder for you to get serious, substantive engagement on this, if that is what you want. Of course this is a matter for your own choice.

Who are the 12 players you think could reasonably be listed above Nowitzki?


The regular ten, Curry, and Kobe. But if I was in the mood for serious, substantive engagement, I wouldn't have come in how I did. I just wanted everyone to know they're wrong (disgracefully and laughably so) and leave it at that.

For the sake of clarity "the regular ten" is ...
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#124 » by Colbinii » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:08 pm

You come in here and cry because your list has Dirk 13th and KG 14th?

You and Sign4 are a dynamic duo.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#125 » by Owly » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:16 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
ShaqAttac wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
By your own admission, the last three of those are at the very end of his career where he wasn't what he had been.

Your points are taken, but I still think he has a four-year peak - his last three years in the ABA and first year in the NBA - that exceeds any of the other players on the ballot. He went to the Finals three times in four years, won two titles, and won three MVPs in four years. I also think the (admittedly limited) data we have suggests Doc was a clearly better two-way player than Mailman.

And when I reference Malone's playoff play, I'm not talking about team outcome, I'm talking about his individual stats, where his TS is the lowest of this bunch by a wide margin. In addition to that, playoff career averages:

Doc - .176 WS/48, 6.0 BPM, 3.78 RAPTOR
Giannis - .188 WS/48, 8.2 BPM 3.36 RAPTOR(but this season was a huge outlier because of his injury, without that it's 5.36)
Durant - .187 WS/48, 6.7 BPM, 3.94 RAPTOR
CP3 - .187 WS/48, 6.6 BPM, 7.04 RAPTOR
Malone - .140 WS/48, 4.1 BPM, 1.53 RAPTOR

Malone is well behind everyone.

(Though CP3's numbers do make me think a bit more about him.)



Then why not vote for him?

how good was malones teammates. he better have a really good excuse if we gonna vote someone who had to wait till everyone good was old and still lost

jokic and giannis and moses and erving all winning mvps and titles without supersquads. wade won without pulling a kd. harden took 73-wins +kd to 7.

what karl do to go this high

ewing literally played chi to 6 and 7 when they were winning 65+ i dont see anyone talking about him

Erving won exactly one title against the best competition of his time and he was probably not the best player.

Granted, he was almost certainly past his peak and i'd say "at his peak" he was possibly the third best best player of the decade(kareem, walton, wilt, maybe 79 moses) and he certainly had impressive runs with very limited aba casts...but this is not apples to apples.

Also probably worth considering thurmond if you're this high on a defensive specialist for team wide overperformance

If best competition is qualifying the statement as pertaining to NBA ...
Granting the sense in allowing some wiggle room, Erving was fairly definitely not the best player. I'm very much on the low end weighting of playoffs, but combine a most of career sample where his boxscore appears to significantly outstrip his impact, being again (iirc) behind 3 guys that pretty consistently outstrip him in on/off (and the two longer term ones even have better raw plus/minus totals for their spell together, even cutting off Erving's later years, despite Erving's minutes advantage) with a low key ... for the producer he typically was ... ugly box production playoffs and an RS minutes deficit to Moses. It's really hard for me to see getting to him as best. Really ignore playoffs and really buy into BPM and that it isn't overrating his D (and isn't low on Moses) maybe could get you there but he's so far behind overall in playoff box stuff and you'd have to about ignore that and the impact signal stuff and minutes and then at the very margins that the thinking at the time supporting another guy in the RS doesn't help.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#126 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:36 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Sorry, when was Nate Thurmond the key to team wide over performance?

1967, 1969, 1973…

My memory of him was team wide underperforming their talent on teams built around Barry's scoring and playmaking and Thurmond's rebounding

Well that would be incorrect unless you think the team’s inability to handle Thurmond’s absences qualifies as “underperforming their talent”.

then they traded Thurmond for Cliff Ray and won a title but that's memory and anecdotal rather than stat based.

That is indeed what literally happened, but I think what is more relevant is Thurmond being old and in decline and injured often enough to cost his team contending opportunities. It is not because Cliff Ray was secretly some superior player talent.

penbeast0 wrote:Thurmond has some excellent head to head series defensively against other ATG bigs; there's a reason he's often mentioned as the GOAT man defender at center.

But he's an offense killer through most of his GS time, averaging almost 16 shots a game for a decade plus in Golden State on .425 shooting in an era where big men were the most efficient shooters.

This is a tired narrative.

1) The Warriors generally did not have any notable offensive improvement when Thurmond missed time.

2) Do you think there is any meaning to the bulk of Thurmond’s shot attempts coming when he was, for all his inefficiency, one of the three or four best scorers on the team, and that when Barry or Wilt were present, his shot rate was notably lower?

3) Do you think there is any meaning to players taking more shots per game when they average high minutes per game?

Ray came in, only averaged 7 shots but on .522 shooting, freeing up Barry for that hot playoff run in 75.

1) Just because Barry shot more, Cliff shot loss, and they won a title, does not mean those three concepts are inherently the reason they won the title. Do the 1975 Warriors defeat the 1973 Lakers? I doubt it.

2) On that note, in the playoffs Barry averaged essentially the same per minute shot rate in 1973 as he did in 1975.

3) 1975 was an outlier volume season even relative to his years with Cliff Ray.

4) Barry’s highest volume scoring season occurred with Thurmond in 1967.

5) Barry himself was not incredibly efficient throughout his career, yet ceding volume to other more efficient scorers did not produce more success than his two highest volume scoring seasons.

6) Thurmond replaced Ray in Chicago, and despite apparently being a shot vampire, the shot rate of the other four starters maintained.

It was a good trade given the results and Thurmond’s age and injury history. In the 1975 postseason, Thurmond was again limited. We do not need to pretend it was because the front office / coaching staff thought Thurmond taking shots was costing them chances at a title.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#127 » by One_and_Done » Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:44 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Erving won exactly one title against the best competition of his time and he was probably not the best player.

Granted, he was almost certainly past his peak and i'd say "at his peak" he was possibly the third best best player of the decade(kareem, walton, wilt, maybe 79 moses) and he certainly had impressive runs with very limited aba casts...but this is not apples to apples.

Also probably worth considering thurmond if you're this high on a defensive specialist for team wide overperformance

The ABA was probably stronger than the NBA from 74 to 76, so no. Dr J deserves consideration here.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#128 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:02 am

Vote: Giannis Antetokounmpo:
Incredible multi-year peak. These are his averages over the last 5 years:
Giannis- 30.6 PER on .625 TS%, .261 WS/48, 10.1 BPM

Compare that to the best 5 year stretches for the top guys on our list:
LeBron- 30.4 PER on .606 TS%, .296 WS/48, 11.1 BPM
Kareem- 27.6 PER on .582 TS%, .295 WS/48, 7.6 BPM (BPM not available for best years of prime)

That's all-time stuff. Giannis is an excellent defender. He's come through in the playoffs. He's done it all. He has more longevity than Mikan who's already been voted in. I think he deserves it for what he's done at the top level.


Alternate: Chris Paul
4th best impact stats from the last 25 years. Greatly overperforms his box numbers as not only is he an excellent passer and playmaker, but he's also one of the top 3 defensive point guards of all-time. His DRAPM numbers are incredible year in, year out, and he's even capable of guarding 7 footers effectively on switches which is downright insane. Much as I compared Giannis to the top players voted the highest in this project, let's compare Paul to the first 2 PGs voted in. I'll do 12 year prime here since that's how many years Magic played:

Magic- 24.1 PER on .610 TS%, .225 WS/48, 7.5 BPM
Curry- 25.2 PER on .634 TS%, .225 WS/48, 7.7 BPM
Paul- 25.6 PER on .581 TS%, .251 WS/48, 8.0 BPM

Paul has a fantastic argument as the GOAT PG period, and at this point in the project, he definitely deserves to be selected.


Nominate: Nikola Jokic
Even better peak than Giannis, no matter whether you look at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 years. Top 2 all-time in PER, postseason PER, BPM, and postseason BPM. Advanced stats god who performs much better in top metrics than he does in the box stuff where he's only matched by Jordan. And again, better longevity than Mikan who was already voted in.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#129 » by scrabbarista » Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:05 am

Colbinii wrote:You come in here and cry because your list has Dirk 13th and KG 14th?

You and Sign4 are a dynamic duo.


I have Dirk five spots higher and Kevin G five spots lower than the RGM goons who are making this travesty a reality. This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.

Warned for baiting and derailing discussion - CF
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#130 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:55 am

scrabbarista wrote:
Colbinii wrote:You come in here and cry because your list has Dirk 13th and KG 14th?

You and Sign4 are a dynamic duo.


I have Dirk five spots higher and Kevin G five spots lower than the RGM goons who are making this travesty a reality. This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.

At least we know you can google a dictionary
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#131 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:23 am

scrabbarista wrote:
Colbinii wrote:You come in here and cry because your list has Dirk 13th and KG 14th?

You and Sign4 are a dynamic duo.


I have Dirk five spots higher and Kevin G five spots lower than the RGM goons who are making this travesty a reality. This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.


Don't let the door hit you on the way out :wave:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#132 » by therealbig3 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:45 am

Imo, ranking KG outside of the top 12 is more “group think” than anything else. Counting rings and scoring a lot of points has become so ingrained for people in terms of how to rank players that a guy who by the numbers is a CLEAR top 10 player of all time is so routinely left out of it just because he couldn’t win anything significant with the terrible rosters he had for most of his career, and because he wasn’t a 30 ppg scorer.

Let’s not pretend like ranking KG lower is some bold opinion and isn’t actually the majority opinion mainly fueled by winning and/or losing bias.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#133 » by rk2023 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:08 am

Colbinii wrote:You come in here and cry because your list has Dirk 13th and KG 14th?

You and Sign4 are a dynamic duo.


There’s one more PC board veteran (whom even took the tantrum to the GB, following Jordan being voted 3rd) to make this a big three
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#134 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:50 am

AEnigma wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I still think [Erving] has a four-year peak - his last three years in the ABA and first year in the NBA - that exceeds any of the other players on the ballot.

This is not a peaks project, and I do not think that version towers over the competition even if we agree (and I would take Giannis and maybe Durant over him there).


It's not a peaks project, but the practice of voting someone with a lower peak in over players with a higher peak on the basis of longevity leaves a bad taste in my mouth, particularly when everyone on the ballot with the exception of Giannis has at least fifteen years in the league.

He went to the Finals three times in four years, won two titles, and won three MVPs in four years.

Would that have been true in a merged league? I give him credit for his accomplishments in the ABA, but we are talking a period where two teams could win titles, and two players (technically three in 1975) could win MVP.


I don't know, but the subject of how competitive the ABA was in those years has been discussed in recent threads and people more knowledgeable about the subject than I am have argued that the ABA was competitive enough by 74-76 that Doc's accomplishments there shouldn't be dinged too much.

I also think the (admittedly limited) data we have suggests Doc was a clearly better two-way player than Mailman.

I strongly see it the other way around. Erving’s defensive effect outside of the ABA does not look high at all.


What can I say when the stat the backs my position up - D-RAPTOR - is the one you claim not to care about?

And when I reference Malone's playoff play, I'm not talking about team outcome, I'm talking about his individual stats, where his TS is the lowest of this bunch by a wide margin.

He also had the worst scoring support of the bunch by a wide margin.

I really could not care less about the BPM and RAPTOR stuff and have said as much on multiple occasions.


Is it because they're box(or hybrid in the case of historical RAPTOR)? I don't know why else you'd outright dismiss them.

I have made mention of Erving having his best series in the Finals, but for whatever that is worth, I also give credit for Malone for consistently upping his performance in immediate rematches, as seen with the Suns, Trail-Blazers, Rockets, Bulls, and Jail-Blazers. He is not a great postseason performer — but in the NBA neither was Erving, and he had his blemishes in the ABA too. If Erving gets in this round, great. I like him more than Malone, and he at least has a notable peak case. However, the reason he is down here is because he faltered plenty, just like Malone.

Then why not vote for him?

Because I think Malone had the more valuable total career and do not think Erving has any notable extenuating circumstances to justify me looking past that. If anything, his extenuating circumstances — playing in the ABA — are what keep him competitive.


Yeah, that phrase "more valuable total career" goes back to the longevity over peak thing that I dislike.

My constant arguing against Malone in recent threads makes it sound like I have no regard for him. The truth is I would vote him in probably within the next five threads. I just think there are fairly obvious flaws with him that are being shoved under the rug in the name of longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#135 » by Narigo » Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:55 am

Vote: Karl Malone
Alt: Julius Erving
Nom: Charles Barkley


Outside of LeBron and Kareem, Karl Malone has the best longevity. He was a all-star level.player for almost 20 seasons. He was very consistent and very durable. One of the best scorers in the regular season all time. He was a top 5-10 player from 89 to 01. I think his poor playoff performance is pretty overblown. He didn't have much help from his teammates in the scoring department . He was able to make it the finals twice in his career

Erving fory second vote over KD and Paul because he much more durable has better longevity than both of those guys.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#136 » by One_and_Done » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:00 am

In today's league a team of meh players led by Moses Malone would likely miss the playoffs. A team of meh players led by prime Chris Paul would be a 50+ win contender.

I don't love Moses skill set today.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#137 » by penbeast0 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:32 am

One_and_Done wrote:In today's league a team of meh players led by Moses Malone would likely miss the playoffs. A team of meh players led by prime Chris Paul would be a 50+ win contender.

I don't love Moses skill set today.


Just as well he didn't play today and/or couldn't possibly adjust to different circumstances.

A team of meh players led by Moses Malone at center went to the NBA finals in Houston. The same team of meh players led by Chris Paul probably wouldn't make the playoffs in that center oriented era. Silly argument but pretty much just as valid when judging a player.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#138 » by AEnigma » Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:35 am

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I still think [Erving] has a four-year peak - his last three years in the ABA and first year in the NBA - that exceeds any of the other players on the ballot.

This is not a peaks project, and I do not think that version towers over the competition even if we agree (and I would take Giannis and maybe Durant over him there).

It's not a peaks project, but the practice of voting someone with a lower peak in over players with a higher peak on the basis of longevity leaves a bad taste in my mouth, particularly when everyone on the ballot with the exception of Giannis has at least fifteen years in the league.

Well then you basically want a peaks project with some mild penalties for current players or short-run guys like Walton.

The fact Malone (and Dirk previously) went this low already signifies there are limits to the collective valuing of longevity. The disparity here is that you seem to place Erving’s peak well above Malone’s, whereas those voting for Malone see the gap as much more moderate. For me, peak Erving is somewhere in the 20-25 range, and peak Malone is hovering around 30. At that point, yes, tough to look past an extra three seasons plus a comfortable advantage in seasons 13-16. 1972-83 Erving probably tops 1988-1999 Malone for me, and on that basis I understand people preferring Erving, but I myself am not ignoring that 2000-03 Malone offered more to his teams than 1984-87 Erving did.

He went to the Finals three times in four years, won two titles, and won three MVPs in four years.

Would that have been true in a merged league? I give him credit for his accomplishments in the ABA, but we are talking a period where two teams could win titles, and two players (technically three in 1975) could win MVP.

I don't know, but the subject of how competitive the ABA was in those years has been discussed in recent threads and people more knowledgeable about the subject than I am have argued that the ABA was competitive enough by 74-76 that Doc's accomplishments there shouldn't be dinged too much.

Sure, but they also should not be equated to winning the typical NBA title. I see those ABA titles as roughly equal in value to the 1975 titles in both leagues.

I also think the (admittedly limited) data we have suggests Doc was a clearly better two-way player than Mailman.

I strongly see it the other way around. Erving’s defensive effect outside of the ABA does not look high at all.

What can I say when the stat the backs my position up - D-RAPTOR - is the one you claim not to care about?

Nothing, because it is not real. It sees Erving grabbing stocks and metaphorically starts salivating.

I am fine with you calling them similar. I am fine with you saying Erving is better than the average small forward by more than Malone is better by the average power forward — but then that in turn is true in reverse for offence, so I suspect that is not the direction you want to take. But it is not clear, no. Opposing forwards tended not to inordinately struggle when he was the lead perimetre defender. Like his stylistic successor, he fared better on teams with strong defenders who could allow him to roam safely. Malone was an excellent defensive rebounder, strong in the post, good hands, impressive man-to-man results against opposing bigs… Neither is a defensive anchor, but for the most part this takes us back to real impact indicators, where Erving is the one who falls short in general.

Again, on its own that does not mean Malone is “better” than Erving, but Erving is not providing notably superior results despite having what I would call notably superior teams in the NBA. He did provide impressive results with often (but not always) limited talent in the ABA, yet without a belief those results would have been equaled in the opposing league, that too only goes so far.

And when I reference Malone's playoff play, I'm not talking about team outcome, I'm talking about his individual stats, where his TS is the lowest of this bunch by a wide margin.

He also had the worst scoring support of the bunch by a wide margin.

I really could not care less about the BPM and RAPTOR stuff and have said as much on multiple occasions.

Is it because they're box(or hybrid in the case of historical RAPTOR)? I don't know why else you'd outright dismiss them.

To my knowledge RAPTOR is not pulling from the 76ers Pollack data; if it did, that might lend it a little more comparative credibility. However, in general I think it is a garbage metric devoid of meaningful information. None of them capture real basketball context. Erving is not individually penalised for any time his attention lapses and he loses his man, or any time he fails to make a pass that late career Malone probably would have found. Malone is not given a break because an elite defence is keyed in on him and Sloan is not interested in pushing the pace to create some easier transition opportunities, or because his man could not manage to find a good scoring position. If people want to glance at those numbers as a start for their analyses, I do not mind. But they are merely indicators, not arguments nor analyses in themselves.

Then why not vote for him?

Because I think Malone had the more valuable total career and do not think Erving has any notable extenuating circumstances to justify me looking past that. If anything, his extenuating circumstances — playing in the ABA — are what keep him competitive.

Yeah, that phrase "more valuable total career" goes back to the longevity over peak thing that I dislike.

My constant arguing against Malone in recent threads makes it sound like I have no regard for him. The truth is I would vote him in probably within the next five threads. I just think there are fairly obvious flaws with him that are being shoved under the rug in the name of longevity.

And “longevity over peak” takes us back to this not being a peaks project and Malone not being far enough behind as a peak to erase the fact he played at a top ten level for thirteen or fourteen years.

Most of us are not shoving his flaws under the rug. This is not a David Robinson scenario where they are being waved off. They are known, and they are why he has not received major support until now — the lowest he has ever been (even excluding Curry moving up the ranks as an active player). The problem is that there are also obvious flaws with the other players, and they do not comparatively differ too much from Malone’s flaws. Again, how many series did Malone lose his team that you would expect him to have won? For me, it is literally just the 1987/89 Warriors series. Some others may fairly argue for more, but my contention there is that any other series could only have been won if Malone were more like a definite top fifteen guy. When I look at Erving by comparison, and I consider all those demonstrable failures and disappointments, I do not see a lot of separation once we move past a peak I already do not see as being insurmountably ahead of Malone.

I voted for Dirk ahead of Malone in part because I could see him winning some of those series Malone lost, but they would still be upsets. What upsets did Erving specifically generate. I would say the 1976 Nuggets… and maybe the 1980 Celtics, although as I have said before, that team was not built for playoff resilience yet, so as an accomplishment, it is right on par with all of Malone’s nominal upsets. A lot of people tried to argue Dirk was coasting off his 2011 postseason, but Erving seems to be coasting even harder off a single series. Great series, no doubt, and it definitely makes up for that historic 1975 upset loss… but I feel we are asking a lot for it to make up for all the other upsets or relinquished leads. Two more of them? No problem, that may as well just be 1972-77. But the more you add, the more lacklustre he starts to look, and that is why we go beyond peaks.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#139 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:54 am

1st Induction Vote: Karl Malone

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2nd Induction Vote: Kevin Durant

Voting for Mailman again. As I've said, while I welcome the argument that he was a drastically worse post-season player than regular season player, I don't really see clear-cut evidence for that. Some guys pass him up in the playoffs sure, but in general I see a guy who looks pretty fundamentally solid over both 82 and 16 game seasons.

2nd vote came down to KD and Dr. J, and ended up keeping them in the same order as I had them during nomination. I'm torn on this because:

1. I do think Erving's '75-76 campaign rates higher than any Durant campaign.

2. I think Erving's a less neurotic, more reasonable guy who can more easily tolerate the primacy of others.

3. I just think Erving's motion is beautiful.

But while I don't want to blow the +/- data out of proportion, it absolutely hurts Erving on my list, and I do have more faith in Durant being an MVP-candidate level performer as a matter of course than I do for Erving.

1st Nomination Vote: Dwyane Wade

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2nd Nomination Vote: Moses Malone

Okay, so this is the nomination vote I'm actually more comfortable with after me putting Jokic 1st last time. I think it's still a bit early for Jokic but when the choice was between him, Giannis & Barkley, well, I'll go with Jokic there.

Makes sense to talk Moses vs Chuck a lot I think. I see it as reasonable to look at Barkley as being in some ways a better version of Moses...but Barkley has a lazy streak on the court that I can't ignore, and this compounds with all sorts of other stuff that would naturally add to an argument saying Moses accomplished more than Chuck.

I do think the Barkley vs Wade debate is funny because of the ads they appeared in together for a number of years. I feel like Wade never really got anointed as having surpassed Barkley's career...but he deserved this to be done. What Wade did for Miami was huge, and aside from the fact that Barkley never burst through all comers like Wade did in 2006, I think it unlikely that a Barkley would have gotten a LeBron to come join him later on, let alone help instinct an intensity that now has a name ("Heat culture").
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #19 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/29/23) 

Post#140 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:24 am

AEnigma wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
AEnigma wrote:This is not a peaks project, and I do not think that version towers over the competition even if we agree (and I would take Giannis and maybe Durant over him there).

It's not a peaks project, but the practice of voting someone with a lower peak in over players with a higher peak on the basis of longevity leaves a bad taste in my mouth, particularly when everyone on the ballot with the exception of Giannis has at least fifteen years in the league.

Well then you basically want a peaks project with some mild penalties for current players or short-run guys like Walton.

The fact Malone (and Dirk previously) went this low already signifies there are limits to the collective valuing of longevity. The disparity here is that you seem to place Erving’s peak well above Malone’s, whereas those voting for Malone see the gap as much more moderate. For me, peak Erving is somewhere in the 20-25 range, and peak Malone is hovering around 30. At that point, yes, tough to look past an extra three seasons plus a comfortable advantage in seasons 13-16. 1972-83 Erving probably tops 1988-1999 Malone for me, and on that basis I understand people preferring Erving, but I myself am not ignoring that 2000-03 Malone offered more to his teams than 1984-87 Erving did.

Would that have been true in a merged league? I give him credit for his accomplishments in the ABA, but we are talking a period where two teams could win titles, and two players (technically three in 1975) could win MVP.

I don't know, but the subject of how competitive the ABA was in those years has been discussed in recent threads and people more knowledgeable about the subject than I am have argued that the ABA was competitive enough by 74-76 that Doc's accomplishments there shouldn't be dinged too much.

Sure, but they also should not be equated to winning the typical NBA title. I see those ABA titles as roughly equal in value to the 1975 titles in both leagues.

I strongly see it the other way around. Erving’s defensive effect outside of the ABA does not look high at all.

What can I say when the stat the backs my position up - D-RAPTOR - is the one you claim not to care about?

Nothing, because it is not real. It sees Erving grabbing stocks and metaphorically starts salivating.

I am fine with you calling them similar. I am fine with you saying Erving is better than the average small forward by more than Malone is better by the average power forward — but then that in turn is true in reverse for offence, so I suspect that is not the direction you want to take. But it is not clear, no. Opposing forwards tended not to inordinately struggle when he was the lead perimetre defender. Like his stylistic successor, he fared better on teams with strong defenders who could allow him to roam safely. Malone was an excellent defensive rebounder, strong in the post, good hands, impressive man-to-man results against opposing bigs… Neither is a defensive anchor, but for the most part this takes us back to real impact indicators, where Erving is the one who falls short in general.

Again, on its own that does not mean Malone is “better” than Erving, but Erving is not providing notably superior results despite having what I would call notably superior teams in the NBA. He did provide impressive results with often (but not always) limited talent in the ABA, yet without a belief those results would have been equaled in the opposing league, that too only goes so far.

He also had the worst scoring support of the bunch by a wide margin.

I really could not care less about the BPM and RAPTOR stuff and have said as much on multiple occasions.

Is it because they're box(or hybrid in the case of historical RAPTOR)? I don't know why else you'd outright dismiss them.

To my knowledge RAPTOR is not pulling from the 76ers Pollack data; if it did, that might lend it a little more comparative credibility. However, in general I think it is a garbage metric devoid of meaningful information. None of them capture real basketball context. Erving is not individually penalised for any time his attention lapses and he loses his man, or any time he fails to make a pass that late career Malone probably would have found. Malone is not given a break because an elite defence is keyed in on him and Sloan is not interested in pushing the pace to create some easier transition opportunities, or because his man could not manage to find a good scoring position. If people want to glance at those numbers as a start for their analyses, I do not mind. But they are merely indicators, not arguments nor analyses in themselves.

Because I think Malone had the more valuable total career and do not think Erving has any notable extenuating circumstances to justify me looking past that. If anything, his extenuating circumstances — playing in the ABA — are what keep him competitive.

Yeah, that phrase "more valuable total career" goes back to the longevity over peak thing that I dislike.

My constant arguing against Malone in recent threads makes it sound like I have no regard for him. The truth is I would vote him in probably within the next five threads. I just think there are fairly obvious flaws with him that are being shoved under the rug in the name of longevity.

And “longevity over peak” takes us back to this not being a peaks project and Malone not being far enough behind as a peak to erase the fact he played at a top ten level for thirteen or fourteen years.

Most of us are not shoving his flaws under the rug. This is not a David Robinson scenario where they are being waved off. They are known, and they are why he has not received major support until now — the lowest he has ever been (even excluding Curry moving up the ranks as an active player). The problem is that there are also obvious flaws with the other players, and they do not comparatively differ too much from Malone’s flaws. Again, how many series did Malone lose his team that you would expect him to have won? For me, it is literally just the 1987/89 Warriors series. Some others may fairly argue for more, but my contention there is that any other series could only have been won if Malone were more like a definite top fifteen guy. When I look at Erving by comparison, and I consider all those demonstrable failures and disappointments, I do not see a lot of separation once we move past a peak I already do not see as being insurmountably ahead of Malone.

I voted for Dirk ahead of Malone in part because I could see him winning some of those series Malone lost, but they would still be upsets. What upsets did Erving specifically generate. I would say the 1976 Nuggets… and maybe the 1980 Celtics, although as I have said before, that team was not built for playoff resilience yet, so as an accomplishment, it is right on par with all of Malone’s nominal upsets. A lot of people tried to argue Dirk was coasting off his 2011 postseason, but Erving seems to be coasting even harder off a single series. Great series, no doubt, and it definitely makes up for that historic 1975 upset loss… but I feel we are asking a lot for it to make up for all the other upsets or relinquished leads. Two more of them? No problem, that may as well just be 1972-77. But the more you add, the more lacklustre he starts to look, and that is why we go beyond peaks.


You make fair points, but I still am not convinced.

You're right, if one doesn't view Dr. J's peak as far enough ahead of Malone's - something we disagree on - then it wouldn't make the difference.

But what about KD's peak? He was a significantly more efficient scorer at similar volume in both the regular season and the playoffs. And I view them as equally uninspiring defensively - I said it before, but I still haven't seen as single statistic of any kind to back up the notion that Malone was a good defender. One could make a strong argument he has a higher peak and he also has fifteen seasons in the league under his belt.

And while I personally wouldn't vote for him yet due to lack of years, Giannis also has a higher peak.

There are guys not even nominated yet that imo have a higher peak and a healthy number of years - namely Barkley.

There are multiple higher peaks that are being passed over on the basis of 19 years vs 15/16/etc years.

I suspect we will not agree on this.

But to answer this specific question:

Again, how many series did Malone lose his team that you would expect him to have won? For me, it is literally just the 1987/89 Warriors series. Some others may fairly argue for more, but my contention there is that any other series could only have been won if Malone were more like a definite top fifteen guy.


You can reasonably argue, given Pippen's likely absence from Game 7 and the fact that said Game 7 would've been in his own building, that all Malone had to do to swing the 98 finals was not turn the ball over with his team up one and one possession's worth of time left in the game.

Also worth mentioning his blown free throws at the end of Game 1 of the 97 Finals. The Jazz were on the verge of stealing that first game in Chicago, and he missed those free throws. Given that Jazz won Games 3 and 4 in Utah, they could've been up 3-1 instead of tied at 2-2 when Jordan has his flu game. There are obviously no guarantees, but I do think it's possible those missed free throws could've changed the outcome of the series.

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