Nuntius wrote:Muizha wrote:I think it goes like this:
Top 7 teams from WC qualify for Olympics.
Not exactly. It is true that 7 teams from WC qualify for the Olympics but it's not the top 7. It is the top teams from each continental confederation.
FIBA Asia, FIBA Africa and FIBA Oceania get 1 spot so only the top team (and by top team, I mean the one who gets the higher seed in the tournament) from each region qualifies for the Olympics.
FIBA Europe and FIBA Americas get 2 spots so the top two teams from these regions qualify.
FIBA Oceania has 2 teams in the tournament. Australia and New Zealand. Both of them are currently 1-1 as they go into their last game. Australia is facing the hosts, Japan, while New Zealand faces Greece. In both cases, the team who wins the game will advance to the second round. If Australia wins and New Zealand loses then Australia secures qualification for the Olympics. If New Zealand wins and Australia loses then New Zealand secures their qualification. If both teams win then it will depend on what happens in the second round. If they both lose, it will depend on what happens in the classification round and the classification games.
FIBA Africa has 5 teams in the tournament. Angola, Cape Verde, South Sudan, Ivory Coast and Egypt. All of them have won 1 game (Egypt is currently beating Mexico by 22 points and there's less than 4 minutes remaining so, yeah, I'm counting that as a win but none of them looks likely to advance to the second round. Egypt and Angola have already been eliminated (Angola has no chance to advance through a 3-way tie) whereas South Sudan and Cape Verde would need to beat Serbia and Slovenia respectively to advance to the second round. Ivory Coast is facing Brazil in the last game and they could advance with a win but Brazil is a pretty strong squad so this is unlikely as well. So, the classification groups and the classification games are going to play a massive role for who qualifies to the Olympics here. The one who does the best in the classification groups will be the one to secure their qualification for the Olympics.
FIBA Asia has 6 teams in the tournament. China, Japan, Philippines, Iran, Jordan and Lebanon. Japan is the only one who has a shot to advance as they're the only ones who have a game so far. It is possible for them to advance to the second round by beating Australia. It's not likely but it can happen. If they beat Australia then they have secured their qualification to the Olympics. But even if they don't, they're in a great spot. You see, the classification stage works similarly with the way the second round works. Group A matches up with Group B, Group C with Group D, Group E with Group F and Group G with Group H. And from the first group carry over, just like they do in the second round. The only difference is that it's the teams that finished bottom two instead of the ones that finished top two.
So, if Japan loses, they'll go into the classification groups along with Finland and the teams who finish bottom two in Group F. Group F is the group with Slovenia, Georgia, Cape Verde and Venezuela. Slovenia is 2-0, Georgia and Cape Verde are 1-1 while Venezuela is 0-2. Cape Verde is facing Slovenia on the last day and Georgia is facing Venezuela. Slovenia is one of the favorites so we could pencil them in for a 3-0 finish. Georgia is a pretty good team who beat Cape Verde by 25 on the first day. Cape Verde beat Venezuela by 6 points yesterday. So, I do expect Georgia to beat Venezuela which means that the bottom two of the group is Cape Verde and Venezuela. So, that would be the group then. Japan, Finland, Cape Verde, Venezuela. Japan and Cape Verde would carry over the one victory over Finland and Venezuela respectively while Finland and Venezuela would start off at a disadvantage. That gives Japan a pretty good chance at finishing in the first two spots of their group which means that they have a great chance of classifying anywhere from 17 to 24, especially since Finland is still a strong squad (despite their failure) and they have already beat them.
Great recap for our American friends who just care how their NBAers peform. LOL
But seriously, yes the classification (17-32) round will be super interesting— despite most out of the World Cup tourney, it’s a tournament within the tournament for those Olympic spots.
A few minor corrections but you get the gist of it and a lot will be decided after today.
