The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace?

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WestGOAT
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The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#1 » by WestGOAT » Sun Sep 3, 2023 5:23 pm

I was having a look at the total number of rebounds in a season for teams, and in theory the known total rebounds from the gamelogs should more or less (ideally it should be perfect) match the recorded season total.

For example let's have a look at the '70 Lakers:
If you count the total number of rebounds from their RS gamelogs you get: 4132
(https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1970/gamelog/)
Whereas if you look at the total stat team table you get: 4154
(https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1970.html#totals-team)

Minor difference, especially over 82 games, right?

However, look at the '62 Royals:
total number of rebounds from their RS gamelogs: 4892
(https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CIN/1962/gamelog/)
total stat team table: 5665 (!)
This is a difference of 773 , which is 15.8% more than actually found in the gamelogs.
(https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1962.html#totals-team)

I basically found the same pattern up to the 1969 season:

Code: Select all

   Season Phase Tm_ID Phase  gTRB Ph-TRB           
                          G   sum    tot    Δ     %Δ
0    1960    RS   PHW    75  5244   5916  672  12.81
1    1962    RS   CIN    80  4892   5665  773  15.80
2    1963    RS   SFW    80  4751   5359  608  12.80
3    1964    RS   CIN    80  4830   5400  570  11.80
4    1964    RS   SFW    80  4871   5499  628  12.89
5    1965    RS   PHI    80  4646   5246  600  12.91
6    1965    RS   SFW    80  5042   5715  673  13.35
7    1965    RS   STL    80  4476   5208  732  16.35
8    1966    RS   CIN    80  4979   5559  580  11.65
9    1966    RS   PHI    80  5024   5652  628  12.50
10   1966    RS   SFW    80  5087   5727  640  12.58
11   1967    RS   CHI    81  4544   5295  751  16.53
12   1967    RS   CIN    81  4651   5198  547  11.76
13   1967    RS   SFW    81  5353   5974  621  11.60
14   1968    RS   CIN    82  4504   5129  625  13.88
15   1968    RS   PHI    82  5143   5914  771  14.99
16   1968    RS   SEA    82  4742   5338  596  12.57
17   1968    RS   SFW    82  5320   6029  709  13.33
18   1970    RS   LAL    82  4132   4154   22   0.53
19   1971    RS   SDR    82  4659   4686   27   0.58
20   1972    RS   LAL    82  4598   4628   30   0.65
21   1976    RS   SEA    82  3693   3715   22   0.60
22   1977    RS   SAS    82  3684   3660   24   0.65
23   1978    RS   WSB    82  4141   4164   23   0.56
24   1980    RS   SAS    82  3644   3668   24   0.66


Now I am not actually sure how bball-ref calculates team pace pre-1974:
https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/12/estimating-pace-and-per-possession-ratings-1951-1973/

But if total team rebounds are being used, this could actually lead to pace being over-estimated then right? And if that's the case actually ORtg/DRtg are being under-estimated and over-estimated, respectively. I wouldn't know by much though, and in the end if it matters much, but something to keep in mind when thinking about how much stats were really "inflated" in the '60s to due relatively high pace.
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#2 » by penbeast0 » Sun Sep 3, 2023 6:09 pm

They changed the way team rebounds were determined in 1969. TrueLAFan has a post you have probably read in the Statistical Analysis section trying to adjust reb rate for this.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=344&t=955514
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#3 » by WestGOAT » Sun Sep 3, 2023 6:32 pm

penbeast0 wrote:They changed the way team rebounds were determined in 1969. TrueLAFan has a post you have probably read in the Statistical Analysis section trying to adjust reb rate for this.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=344&t=955514


I came across it a number of times, but never actually read in detail! This basically explains it, is there any official source on why they started counting this differently starting from 1969?

Having a quick look, average Pace in 1968 drops from 119.8 to 116.9 in 1969:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1968.html#advanced-team vs
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1969.html#advanced-team

This kinda suggests that ORtg/DRtg are "incorrect" if total tm rebounds are considered to be inflated pre-1969.
You could then adjust, on average, by the factor TrueLAFan calculated to get more "accurate" numbers.
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#4 » by kcktiny » Mon Sep 4, 2023 1:05 am

average Pace in 1968 drops from 119.8 to 116.9 in 1969


How can they calculate game pace without knowing the number of turnovers on either offense or defense?
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#5 » by MrVorp » Mon Sep 4, 2023 5:08 am

kcktiny wrote:
average Pace in 1968 drops from 119.8 to 116.9 in 1969


How can they calculate game pace without knowing the number of turnovers on either offense or defense?

I think BBR uses a league wide TO% estimation
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#6 » by MyUniBroDavis » Mon Sep 4, 2023 6:39 am

MrVorp wrote:
kcktiny wrote:
average Pace in 1968 drops from 119.8 to 116.9 in 1969


How can they calculate game pace without knowing the number of turnovers on either offense or defense?

I think BBR uses a league wide TO% estimation


Wait no way they assign everyone the same amount right?
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Re: The total # of team rebounds pre-1969 seem too high and may be incorrect, implications for possessions/pace? 

Post#7 » by WestGOAT » Mon Sep 4, 2023 6:11 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
MrVorp wrote:
kcktiny wrote:
How can they calculate game pace without knowing the number of turnovers on either offense or defense?

I think BBR uses a league wide TO% estimation


Wait no way they assign everyone the same amount right?


I believe BBR uses a league wide offensive rebounding %. They seem to have actual records of season-level rebounds and turnovers.

This probably disproportionately affects teams that are good at getting offensive rebounds and generating turnovers, Celtics?
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