ROY in 1996 - why not Sabonis?

[durantbird]

Why didn't Arvydas Sabonis win Rookie of the Year in 1996? He was second on votes behind the winner Damon Stoudemire, but it wasn't very close (76 Pts Won vs 17.0 Pts Won), and Joe Smith was pretty close to Sabonis as well in third place.

Sabonis stats:
14.5 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, 37% 3PT
24.7 PER, 61.7% TS, .233 WS/48, 3.7 OBPM, 2.9 DBPM, 6.7 BPM, 3.8 VORP, 128.8 TS Add, 105.8 FG Add

Stoudemire stats:
19.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 39% 3PT
16.7 PER, 53% TS, .072 WS/48, 2.5 OBPM, -2.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, 1.6 VORP, -34.0 TS Add, -31.1 FG Add


Was it related to the fact that Sabonis was an old rookie in 31 yo versus 22 yo Stoudemire? Was it related to something else? His numbers weren't flashy enough? Played too little?

[Harry Palmer]

Why didn't Arvydas Sabonis win Rookie of the Year in 1996? He was second on votes behind the winner Damon Stoudemire, but it wasn't very close (76 Pts Won vs 17.0 Pts Won), and Joe Smith was pretty close to Sabonis as well in third place.

Sabonis stats:
14.5 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, 37% 3PT
24.7 PER, 61.7% TS, .233 WS/48, 3.7 OBPM, 2.9 DBPM, 6.7 BPM, 3.8 VORP, 128.8 TS Add, 105.8 FG Add

Stoudemire stats:
19.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 39% 3PT
16.7 PER, 53% TS, .072 WS/48, 2.5 OBPM, -2.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, 1.6 VORP, -34.0 TS Add, -31.1 FG Add


Was it related to the fact that Sabonis was an old rookie in 31 yo versus 22 yo Stoudemire? Was it related to something else? His numbers weren't flashy enough? Played too little?

Much more the volume thing, imo, though it couples with the age thing in a way. Stoudemire playing over 1/3 of Sabonis’ minutes more is itself pretty huge (and the lower numbers for Sabonis also means relative metrics, ie the bulk of his case, are less reliable) but when the lower number guy is towards the end of his career and the younger guy is amongst the youngest in the league there is the very real sense that the gap will continue to widen moving forward, that this may well be the closest to Stoudemire’s impact that Sabonis will ever have. It’s not the only thing, but ‘how will my vote look in 5 years’ is a real part of the voting process for many.

[homecourtloss]

Why didn't Arvydas Sabonis win Rookie of the Year in 1996? He was second on votes behind the winner Damon Stoudemire, but it wasn't very close (76 Pts Won vs 17.0 Pts Won), and Joe Smith was pretty close to Sabonis as well in third place.

Sabonis stats:
14.5 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, 37% 3PT
24.7 PER, 61.7% TS, .233 WS/48, 3.7 OBPM, 2.9 DBPM, 6.7 BPM, 3.8 VORP, 128.8 TS Add, 105.8 FG Add

Stoudemire stats:
19.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 39% 3PT
16.7 PER, 53% TS, .072 WS/48, 2.5 OBPM, -2.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, 1.6 VORP, -34.0 TS Add, -31.1 FG Add


Was it related to the fact that Sabonis was an old rookie in 31 yo versus 22 yo Stoudemire? Was it related to something else? His numbers weren't flashy enough? Played too little?

Much more the volume thing, imo, though it couples with the age thing in a way. Stoudemire playing over 1/3 of Sabonis’ minutes more is itself pretty huge (and the lower numbers for Sabonis also means relative metrics, ie the bulk of his case, are less reliable) but when the lower number guy is towards the end of his career and the younger guy is amongst the youngest in the league there is the very real sense that the gap will continue to widen moving forward, that this may well be the closest to Stoudemire’s impact that Sabonis will ever have. It’s not the only thing, but ‘how will my vote look in 5 years’ is a real part of the voting process for many.

Sabonis being 31 and playing less were the deciding factors, but you also have here the unreliability of the voters and the narrative of “how they were seen in their time.” 1,700+ minutes of Sabonis’s time on court were much more valuable than Damon’s time. Damon was throughout his career an inefficient scorer who could get hot, and a poor defender though pretty much what one would expect given his position and physical profile. Sabonis was an impact monster even in his older, less mobile diminished self.

[Rich Michmond]

Funnily enough, he was also second in the Sixth Man voting behind Toni Kukoč.

[Owly]

Why didn't Arvydas Sabonis win Rookie of the Year in 1996? He was second on votes behind the winner Damon Stoudemire, but it wasn't very close (76 Pts Won vs 17.0 Pts Won), and Joe Smith was pretty close to Sabonis as well in third place.

Sabonis stats:
14.5 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, 37% 3PT
24.7 PER, 61.7% TS, .233 WS/48, 3.7 OBPM, 2.9 DBPM, 6.7 BPM, 3.8 VORP, 128.8 TS Add, 105.8 FG Add

Stoudemire stats:
19.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 39% 3PT
16.7 PER, 53% TS, .072 WS/48, 2.5 OBPM, -2.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, 1.6 VORP, -34.0 TS Add, -31.1 FG Add


Was it related to the fact that Sabonis was an old rookie in 31 yo versus 22 yo Stoudemire? Was it related to something else? His numbers weren't flashy enough? Played too little?

Short answer is points.

Longers answer involves how advanced stats weren't so much around then and what there was wasn't widely circulated, plus other factors plus points.

Regarding other thoughts offered...

The how will this look thing ... I don't think that mainly has been so much of a thing to any significant degree ... I don't know but
1) if they were picking for the future they often don't do so that well.
2) when I heard what I generally think of as a reasonably sensible, certainly highly informed thinker offer that reasoning I thought it weird and kind of ... dumb, it's an award for that year. And if I'd heard it a bunch before I'd at least have been more aware of it (e.g. 6th man award sometimes tilting towards scorers)

Much more the volume thing, imo, though it couples with the age thing in a way. Stoudemire playing over 1/3 of Sabonis’ minutes more is itself pretty huge (and the lower numbers for Sabonis also means relative metrics, ie the bulk of his case, are less reliable) but when the lower number guy is towards the end of his career and the younger guy is amongst the youngest in the league there is the very real sense that the gap will continue to widen moving forward, that this may well be the closest to Stoudemire’s impact that Sabonis will ever have. It’s not the only thing, but ‘how will my vote look in 5 years’ is a real part of the voting process for many.

I assume this is a reflection of the voters thinking rather than a reflection on reality (though perhaps should have mainted the more conceptual language of the "the lower [minutes] guy") but the closest Stoudemire was in real terms ... well value depends on the baseline but Stoudemire was just a worse player due who - going off the top of my head here, so could be wrong - continued with pedestrian box composites and not so great defense.

[Harry Palmer]

Why didn't Arvydas Sabonis win Rookie of the Year in 1996? He was second on votes behind the winner Damon Stoudemire, but it wasn't very close (76 Pts Won vs 17.0 Pts Won), and Joe Smith was pretty close to Sabonis as well in third place.

Sabonis stats:
14.5 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.1 BLK, 37% 3PT
24.7 PER, 61.7% TS, .233 WS/48, 3.7 OBPM, 2.9 DBPM, 6.7 BPM, 3.8 VORP, 128.8 TS Add, 105.8 FG Add

Stoudemire stats:
19.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.4 STL, 39% 3PT
16.7 PER, 53% TS, .072 WS/48, 2.5 OBPM, -2.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, 1.6 VORP, -34.0 TS Add, -31.1 FG Add


Was it related to the fact that Sabonis was an old rookie in 31 yo versus 22 yo Stoudemire? Was it related to something else? His numbers weren't flashy enough? Played too little?

Much more the volume thing, imo, though it couples with the age thing in a way. Stoudemire playing over 1/3 of Sabonis’ minutes more is itself pretty huge (and the lower numbers for Sabonis also means relative metrics, ie the bulk of his case, are less reliable) but when the lower number guy is towards the end of his career and the younger guy is amongst the youngest in the league there is the very real sense that the gap will continue to widen moving forward, that this may well be the closest to Stoudemire’s impact that Sabonis will ever have. It’s not the only thing, but ‘how will my vote look in 5 years’ is a real part of the voting process for many.

Sabonis being 31 and playing less were the deciding factors, but you also have here the unreliability of the voters and the narrative of “how they were seen in their time.” 1,700+ minutes of Sabonis’s time on court were much more valuable than Damon’s time. Damon was throughout his career an inefficient scorer who could get hot, and a poor defender though pretty much what one would expect given his position and physical profile. Sabonis was an impact monster even in his older, less mobile diminished self.

Oh , I should have clarified I never really liked Amare and still felt he underdeveloped, so I was not saying who would end up being better, just that the perception at the time was he was a young monster and Sabonis was, yeah, a still very effective shadow of his former self that had who knows how many miles left in him.