Which Team, Best of 7 Series? 18 HOU vs 20 LAL

[homecourtloss]

Assuming both teams healthy I got the Rockets winning it in a close series going either 6 or 7 games. The 2018 Rockets were a 65-win +8.21 SRS team while the 2020 Lakers were a 60-win pace +6.28 SRS team.

Weren't the Lakers much better pre-bubble compared to the 8 bubble games when they weren't trying?

They were 3-5 in the bubble and 49-14 pre-bubble which is a 64-win pace.

If you want to simply reference W-L and SRS, you must agree the 2015 Cavs/Hawks series is a serious upset. Or, perhaps, LeBron James teams tend to play at much higher levels than their RS SRS indicates [2012-2023] and that citing RS SRS/WL isn't a predictive measure for LeBron teams since he is such a massive post-season ceiling raiser.

Houston was a better regular season team, but there really wasn’t that much of a difference between the two teams.

Before these last games before the playoffs, the Lakers had a +7.3 NRtg and around a +7.8 SRS. +8.21, +7.8…Eh, not much of a difference.

Harden+CP3 were +13.1 together on court.
LeBron+AD were +10.4 together on court.

As UniBro s mentioned, Anthony Davis really ramped up his game in the playoffs into a completely different type of player. Davis really had a mediocre regular season impact wise (e.g., LeBron on/AD off, +10.25; AD On/LeBron off, -2.4), in the playoffs when they were +14 on court together, including some garbage 10 minutes. Again, you have a Lakers team that only lost two games the entire season in which it made a league average amount of threes at a league average percentage and then once in the playoffs. It had an incredibly high floor, and if it was making some open shots, it was near invincible on top of that, that team had the personnel to deal with Houston’s ISO heavy offense as well as its. switch everything defense.

In any case, they were at a slightly below a 64 win pace pre bubble with bron playing at like 70-80% and AD at like 60% of how good he was in the bubble, extrapolating regular season bubble results is a bit useless, especially when bron didn’t kick it into high gear till the finals as well, other than close out games or must wins

A 64 win team had Lebron go from mvp candidate but not winner to probably one of his better postseason runs in his career, and AD went from being a strong offensive player and all defensive level to being basically this ridiculous force on offense and historically good on defense

[MyUniBroDavis]

Assuming both teams healthy I got the Rockets winning it in a close series going either 6 or 7 games. The 2018 Rockets were a 65-win +8.21 SRS team while the 2020 Lakers were a 60-win pace +6.28 SRS team.

Weren't the Lakers much better pre-bubble compared to the 8 bubble games when they weren't trying?

They were 3-5 in the bubble and 49-14 pre-bubble which is a 64-win pace.

If you want to simply reference W-L and SRS, you must agree the 2015 Cavs/Hawks series is a serious upset. Or, perhaps, LeBron James teams tend to play at much higher levels than their RS SRS indicates [2012-2023] and that citing RS SRS/WL isn't a predictive measure for LeBron teams since he is such a massive post-season ceiling raiser.

Houston was a better regular season team, but there really wasn’t that much of a difference between the two teams.

Before these last games before the playoffs, the Lakers had a +7.3 NRtg and around a +7.8 SRS. +8.21, +7.8…Eh, not much of a difference.

Harden+CP3 were +13.1 together on court.
LeBron+AD were +10.4 together on court.

As UniBro s mentioned, Anthony Davis really ramped up his game in the playoffs into a completely different type of player. Davis really had a mediocre regular season impact wise (e.g., LeBron on/AD off, +10.25; AD On/LeBron off, -2.4), in the playoffs when they were +14 on court together, including some garbage 10 minutes. Again, you have a Lakers team that only lost two games the entire season in which it made a league average amount of threes at a league average percentage and then once in the playoffs. It had an incredibly high floor, and if it was making some open shots, it was near invincible on top of that, that team had the personnel to deal with Houston’s ISO heavy offense as well as its. switch everything defense.

In any case, they were at a slightly below a 64 win pace pre bubble with bron playing at like 70-80% and AD at like 60% of how good he was in the bubble, extrapolating regular season bubble results is a bit useless, especially when bron didn’t kick it into high gear till the finals as well, other than close out games or must wins

A 64 win team had Lebron go from mvp candidate but not winner to probably one of his better postseason runs in his career, and AD went from being a strong offensive player and all defensive level to being basically this ridiculous force on offense and historically good on defense

Wrote a bit about it awhile back, but the Lakers postseason data is skewed because they were pretty horrendous in garbage time or games they basically started coasting in the fourth

[Johnny Tomala]

Rockets in 6.

[OhayoKD]

Weren't the Lakers much better pre-bubble compared to the 8 bubble games when they weren't trying?

They were 3-5 in the bubble and 49-14 pre-bubble which is a 64-win pace.

If you want to simply reference W-L and SRS, you must agree the 2015 Cavs/Hawks series is a serious upset. Or, perhaps, LeBron James teams tend to play at much higher levels than their RS SRS indicates [2012-2023] and that citing RS SRS/WL isn't a predictive measure for LeBron teams since he is such a massive post-season ceiling raiser.

Houston was a better regular season team, but there really wasn’t that much of a difference between the two teams.

Before these last games before the playoffs, the Lakers had a +7.3 NRtg and around a +7.8 SRS. +8.21, +7.8…Eh, not much of a difference.

Harden+CP3 were +13.1 together on court.
LeBron+AD were +10.4 together on court.

As UniBro s mentioned, Anthony Davis really ramped up his game in the playoffs into a completely different type of player. Davis really had a mediocre regular season impact wise (e.g., LeBron on/AD off, +10.25; AD On/LeBron off, -2.4), in the playoffs when they were +14 on court together, including some garbage 10 minutes. Again, you have a Lakers team that only lost two games the entire season in which it made a league average amount of threes at a league average percentage and then once in the playoffs. It had an incredibly high floor, and if it was making some open shots, it was near invincible on top of that, that team had the personnel to deal with Houston’s ISO heavy offense as well as its. switch everything defense.

In any case, they were at a slightly below a 64 win pace pre bubble with bron playing at like 70-80% and AD at like 60% of how good he was in the bubble, extrapolating regular season bubble results is a bit useless, especially when bron didn’t kick it into high gear till the finals as well, other than close out games or must wins

A 64 win team had Lebron go from mvp candidate but not winner to probably one of his better postseason runs in his career, and AD went from being a strong offensive player and all defensive level to being basically this ridiculous force on offense and historically good on defense

Wrote a bit about it awhile back, but the Lakers postseason data is skewed because they were pretty horrendous in garbage time or games they basically started coasting in the fourth

I literally quoted that excerpt lol.

Only issue is it also applies to the rockets

[SK21209]

Very hard for me to see a Harden/CP3 team beating a LeBron James team in a playoff series with LeBron still playing at an MVP level and another Top 5 player. Between Caruso, KCP, Green and even LeBron, that Lakers team had good defensive matchups for Harden and CP3. I love the Caruso matchup on CP3 in particular. Those perimeter defenders and AD at the 5 would hold up very well against their P&R, so it turns into CP3 and Harden trying to iso their way past a LeBron and AD team with good defenders.

Lakers in 6 or 7.

[Jaivl]

I really like that Houston team, but boy do they match up poorly against the Lakers. Assuming Houston would have HCA, Lakers in 6.

[AdagioPace]

despite going head-to-head, point-for-point with the Behemoth,despite SRS, Houston was specifically constructed for going against 2018 Warriors. it was like the biggest reactionary, passive-aggressive team
This might be my spurs bias talking (given how many times we've spanked houston Harden) but I think the Lakers have a perfect combination of size, shooting, defense and superstars.
PS: if Health God could only choose one between CP3 and AD, I'm 100% sure CP3 won't be the one. I say Lakers in 6 as well, with two games won by Houston in two blowouts.

[f4p]

despite going head-to-head, point-for-point with the Behemoth,despite SRS, Houston was specifically constructed for going against 2018 Warriors. it was like the biggest reactionary, passive-aggressive team

this has always been such a weird slight against that rockets team, that we were designed to beat the warriors (should we have focused on the hornets?). like we didn't really care about winning overall, just the warriors. almost like it was a little unfair that we only designed ourselves to beat the warriors while the warriors had the unfortunate task of having to beat everyone. except the rockets had by far the best record in the league and an absurd record when healthy. we seemed pretty well designed for beating everybody. like how much better do you get than 2 of the greatest offensive guards ever, a great 6th man who can score 20 at any time (gordon), a rim-rolling, rim protecting modern big man in capela, and 3&D wings all over the place, with a little regular season offensive depth in guys like anderson and green? it seems like basically a perfectly constructed roster.

This might be my spurs bias talking (given how many times we've spanked houston Harden) but I think the Lakers have a perfect combination of size, shooting, defense and superstars.
PS: if Health God could only choose one between CP3 and AD, I'm 100% sure CP3 won't be the one. I say Lakers in 6 as well, with two games won by Houston in two blowouts.

the lakers have shooting? if anything that seems like the biggest area where the rockets defense takes the chance to really pack the paint against lebron.

[falcolombardi]

Lakers are uniquely equiped to deal with that rockets team by playing davis at the 5 and having lebron do lebron thinghs to their small lineups

[OhayoKD]

despite going head-to-head, point-for-point with the Behemoth,despite SRS, Houston was specifically constructed for going against 2018 Warriors. it was like the biggest reactionary, passive-aggressive team

this has always been such a weird slight against that rockets team, that we were designed to beat the warriors (should we have focused on the hornets?). like we didn't really care about winning overall, just the warriors. almost like it was a little unfair that we only designed ourselves to beat the warriors while the warriors had the unfortunate task of having to beat everyone. except the rockets had by far the best record in the league and an absurd record when healthy. we seemed pretty well designed for beating everybody. like how much better do you get than 2 of the greatest offensive guards ever, a great 6th man who can score 20 at any time (gordon), a rim-rolling, rim protecting modern big man in capela, and 3&D wings all over the place, with a little regular season offensive depth in guys like anderson and green? it seems like basically a perfectly constructed roster.

This might be my spurs bias talking (given how many times we've spanked houston Harden) but I think the Lakers have a perfect combination of size, shooting, defense and superstars.
PS: if Health God could only choose one between CP3 and AD, I'm 100% sure CP3 won't be the one. I say Lakers in 6 as well, with two games won by Houston in two blowouts.

the lakers have shooting? if anything that seems like the biggest area where the rockets defense takes the chance to really pack the paint against lebron.

Theoretically you can get alot better than rim capela as a defensive anchor and those 3 and d's you're talking about all have a pretty bad history when it comes to locking up lebron. Maybe they win anyway but it seems fair to say that defense was better suited against smaller lineups like what the Warriors threw.

Also in terms of "how can you get better", cp3/harden doesn't seem like an optimal partnership(and the rockets accordingly staggered them)

[f4p]

despite going head-to-head, point-for-point with the Behemoth,despite SRS, Houston was specifically constructed for going against 2018 Warriors. it was like the biggest reactionary, passive-aggressive team

this has always been such a weird slight against that rockets team, that we were designed to beat the warriors (should we have focused on the hornets?). like we didn't really care about winning overall, just the warriors. almost like it was a little unfair that we only designed ourselves to beat the warriors while the warriors had the unfortunate task of having to beat everyone. except the rockets had by far the best record in the league and an absurd record when healthy. we seemed pretty well designed for beating everybody. like how much better do you get than 2 of the greatest offensive guards ever, a great 6th man who can score 20 at any time (gordon), a rim-rolling, rim protecting modern big man in capela, and 3&D wings all over the place, with a little regular season offensive depth in guys like anderson and green? it seems like basically a perfectly constructed roster.

This might be my spurs bias talking (given how many times we've spanked houston Harden) but I think the Lakers have a perfect combination of size, shooting, defense and superstars.
PS: if Health God could only choose one between CP3 and AD, I'm 100% sure CP3 won't be the one. I say Lakers in 6 as well, with two games won by Houston in two blowouts.

the lakers have shooting? if anything that seems like the biggest area where the rockets defense takes the chance to really pack the paint against lebron.

Theoretically you can get alot better than rim capela as a defensive anchor

okay, but within the salary cap? with a guy who also has good hands on tough catches on PnR's and a vertical threat on lobs (and a seeming mindmeld with harden on the lobs)? outside of the lucky cap spike combined with steph's super low contract for the warriors, there's only so much talent you can have.

and and those 3 and d's you're talking about all have a pretty bad history when it comes to locking up lebron.

from 2012-2020, other than lebron with a bad back in 2015, who didn't have a bad history when it comes to locking up lebron? the warriors were giving up triple double averages to lebron and still beating him (and that was a better offensive version of lebron). you basically just have to work around the fact lebron is going to tear you up.

Maybe they win anyway but it seems fair to say that defense was better suited against smaller lineups like what the Warriors threw.

all else being equal, we might be better suited against small lineups, but i'd rather be slightly less suited against the 2020 lakers offense than better suited against the KD warriors. who keep in mind, also had the #1 playoff defense in addition to their #1 playoff offense.

Also in terms of "how can you get better", cp3/harden doesn't seem like an optimal partnership(and the rockets accordingly staggered them)

in theory, it might not be, but in practice it seems to have been. harden is the possession by possession efficiency hammer, bludgeoning you for 36 minutes a game. then just when you are barely hanging on, cp3 comes in against your bench for 6 minutes a half and cleans up. now the lead isn't shrinking while harden's on the bench, it's growing. to me, that was their greatness. harden the unstoppable offensive force who wasn't afraid to make mistakes and who carried the load in a way cp3 couldn't, cp3 the tactician who made sure nothing ever got too far off course in any given game.

i'll point it out again, just because it should be repeated. when harden, cp3, and capela played, the rockets were 42-3 with a 12.0 SRS. and their 3 losses were by 2, 3, and 6. then they had +11.7 and +14.7 playoff series. they were a machine. and i would say the warriors with draymond were better at neutralizing capela than the lakers with a more traditional lineup would be.

for everyone else, we actually saw the 2020 lakers try to guard harden and it wasn't pretty. now there's no westbrook outlet valve to just leave open and double harden.

[Wuuuke]

18 rockets are probably the better overall team but in a head to head I like how the Lakers match up