RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #25 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)

[One_and_Done]

If we offered 30 GMs today the option of having Bob Pettit to build around, or [insert regular modern all-nba player here], they'd take the latter. Guys like Lillard, Butler, AD, PG, etc, would be so much more valuable it's not even funny. At least Ewing and Stockton would still be all-stars today.

[homecourtloss]

As for nomination, I just think Kawhi is the best player left on the board. There’s longevity/injury problems and I wouldn’t mind at all Pettit being nominated at this point, but when healthy I think Kawhi is the best player left. Just for reference, from 2015-2016 onwards, Kawhi has a 29.0 PER, 0.262 win shares per 48 minutes, and 11.0 BPM in the playoffs, and that’s with metrics that don’t adequately account for a major area that Kawhi also excels at (defense). I just think that he can raise his game to a higher level than anyone left, and he has the team success to go along with it.

No problem with the nomination, but want to address the bolded. Kawhi did have some excellent defensive seasons not really captured by the box data but these were before he became a focal point on offense.



JE doesn’t have single season RS+PS RAPM numbers for 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 (not that I’ve seen posted), but these wouldn’t change things much. His career (through 2022) at -1.2 suggests that 2020, 2021, and 2022 weren’t the strongest defensive seasons either.

Overall, his defensive impact doesn’t match the outsized reputation he’s been given.

[One_and_Done]

And thats another example of why nobody trusts defensive stats as much as offensive ones. They give inconsistent results. Kawhi was an awesome defender. I don't care if some years a computer spits out a number that doesn't agree. There's so many ways that number could be misleading.

[Clyde Frazier]

We've seen Jokic get cooked in the pick and roll too. Giannis gives more RS lift, and is less attackable than Jokic is the playoffs. He showed that in 21, in 22 Middleton got hurt and he took Boston to 7 games anyway, and in 23 he was hurt. Jokic had a great year, but I'm not going to overreact to it. Let's see him do ir again next year against some better teams that can attack his weaknesses more. The 21 Suns who Giannis beat likely cook this years Nuggets for dinner.

Again with the wild speculation. You're making it seem like jokic's prior 2 MVP seasons where he didn't have healthy teams in the playoffs don't matter at all.

[Owly]

Giannis gives you the lift of a Jokic type, without the huge defensive weakness. Giannis also has more longevity as a legit star, and more longevity as a whole.

Barkley haa plenty of longevity, but peak Giannis is just too much better.

Wouldn't a "huge defensive weakness" be baked into the amount of lift given? Couldn't the sentence be flipped with "the glaring inability to make a jump shot" if we're going that simplistic?

Mileage may vary on lift depending on metric or rating methodology.

Shaq didn't make alot of jump shots either. If you can score efficiently anyway it doesn't matter much. Giannis is a more modern Shaq on offense, but he makes you great defensively too.

That is indeed an if though.
Giannis RS TS% 19-23: .625
playoffs: .580

In either case it's significance or degree can be overstated and in either case the flaw would factor into the lift provided.

[One_and_Done]

Of course they matter. I preferenced him last round. But he's got minimal longevity as an MVP type player, and is being compared to other awesome players too. Giannis has 2 MVPs of his own, and could argue he deserves a 3rd one too.

The Suns high PnR attack in 21 would have cooked Jokic... like it did in reality in 2021 when he was swept.

[70sFan]

Moses Malone offensive game doesn't translate today as I explained, and he'd get cooked on the perimeter. Sure, older Shaq would have some issues in that regard too. However Shaq offsets them with his world breaking levels of offense. Moses isn't giving back what you're giving up.

I just love the way you choose words in this situation.

Moses -> "he'd get cooked on perimeter"
Shaq -> "older Shaq would have some issues in that regard"

No, it's Moses who would have some issues in that regard, while older Shaq would get cooked. I still don't understand why you act like Moses was a stiff who couldn't go out on perimeter and defend quicker guys (he actually did that at times).

About Giannis vs Jokic - it's just not true that Giannis doesn't have limitations coming to the playoffs in comparison to Jokic. Giannis offense failed him quite a few times at this point and unlike Jokic (who is an ironman), Giannis struggles to stay healthy for half of his prime seasons. You are cherry picking in this case.

[rk2023]

Of course they matter. I preferenced him last round. But he's got minimal longevity as an MVP type player, and is being compared to other awesome players too. Giannis has 2 MVPs of his own, and could argue he deserves a 3rd one too.

The Suns high PnR attack in 21 would have cooked Jokic... like it did in reality in 2021 when he was swept.

The Nuggets deploying Jokic as a playmaking / scoring hybrid with many DHOs and passes to cutters & shooters would have cooked Durant (a fringe T-10 guy for you)…. Like it did in reality in 2023 when he was blown out the floor and dropped noticeably on both sides of the floor against Denver - which can be attributed to their team defense that includes Jokic

[OhayoKD]

As for nomination, I just think Kawhi is the best player left on the board. There’s longevity/injury problems and I wouldn’t mind at all Pettit being nominated at this point, but when healthy I think Kawhi is the best player left. Just for reference, from 2015-2016 onwards, Kawhi has a 29.0 PER, 0.262 win shares per 48 minutes, and 11.0 BPM in the playoffs, and that’s with metrics that don’t adequately account for a major area that Kawhi also excels at (defense). I just think that he can raise his game to a higher level than anyone left, and he has the team success to go along with it.

No problem with the nomination, but want to address the bolded. Kawhi did have some excellent defensive seasons not really captured by the box data but these were before he became a focal point on offense.



JE doesn’t have single season RS+PS RAPM numbers for 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 (not that I’ve seen posted), but these wouldn’t change things much. His career (through 2022) at -1.2 suggests that 2020, 2021, and 2022 weren’t the strongest defensive seasons either.

Overall, his defensive impact doesn’t match the outsized reputation he’s been given.

BPM probably overrates Kawhi's defense if anything(paticularly toronto and beyond). Kawhi's weaknesses and limitations defensively are not factored in. The Raptors were basically unaffected by his departure defensively yet Kawhi scored nearly as high in dbpm than actual anchor Marc Gasol in the playoffs.

BPM may well overrate Kawhi'd defense if anything. It certainly does in any sort of comparison with two-way bigs. His offense would also almost certainly be overrated compared to elite playmakers. Pair that with a not paticuarly impressive track-record in terms of impact(rs or playoffs), poor longetvity for this level with multiple more valuable contemporaries on the board, I'd say nomming kawhi here would be early

[One_and_Done]

Moses Malone offensive game doesn't translate today as I explained, and he'd get cooked on the perimeter. Sure, older Shaq would have some issues in that regard too. However Shaq offsets them with his world breaking levels of offense. Moses isn't giving back what you're giving up.

I just love the way you choose words in this situation.

Moses -> "he'd get cooked on perimeter"
Shaq -> "older Shaq would have some issues in that regard"

No, it's Moses who would have some issues in that regard, while older Shaq would get cooked. I still don't understand why you act like Moses was a stiff who couldn't go out on perimeter and defend quicker guys (he actually did that at times).

About Giannis vs Jokic - it's just not true that Giannis doesn't have limitations coming to the playoffs in comparison to Jokic. Giannis offense failed him quite a few times at this point and unlike Jokic (who is an ironman), Giannis struggles to stay healthy for half of his prime seasons. You are cherry picking in this case.

I find it hard to credit that you haven't had these arguments presented before. The biggest value a big can provide it to be a defensive anchor. That ability to protect the most valuable real estste can offset alot of perimeter weaknesses. Gobert can't race arounf the perimeter, or even score much, but his defensive anchoring brings huge value.

Now, against a team like the 2015-2018 Warriors a traditional big is still going to be in trouble, because against an optimal modern team like that you need to switch. The only way to compensate is to be so devastating on both ends that you can hurt them more than they can hurt you. I feel confident guys like Shaq could win that math equation, because he's providing you GOAT level offensive power while still giving you some rim protection on the other end. That said, I feel in the modern era Shaq wouldn't have aged as well, and it would have hurt his value. I've said this too. It's part of the reason I have Duncan so clearly ahead of him. Young Duncan could move surprisingly well, could shoot, and could also be a a defensive anchor.

Then you have Moses. Moses offers you the worst of both worlds. He will be a liability in the high pick and roll, but he doesn't give you either a defensive anchor nor a dominating offensive force inside. There'd also be less rebounds to be had in today's high octane offense league, and standing near the basket to get rebounds would kill his team even more. Jokic at least brings the goods on offense. You just need to worry about his lack of either defensive anchoring or mobility.

[70sFan]

Then you have Moses. Moses offers you the worst of both worlds. He will be a liability in the high pick and roll, but he doesn't give you either a defensive anchor nor a dominating offensive force inside.

Why do you think Moses would be a liability in the high P&R? He wasn't slow moving giant like Shaq, he was fairly quick for a center and had decently quick hands (that's always helpful on P&R coverage).

Why do you think he wouldn't be a "dominating offensive force inside"? What would prevent him in today's game for doing that?

[One_and_Done]

Of course they matter. I preferenced him last round. But he's got minimal longevity as an MVP type player, and is being compared to other awesome players too. Giannis has 2 MVPs of his own, and could argue he deserves a 3rd one too.

The Suns high PnR attack in 21 would have cooked Jokic... like it did in reality in 2021 when he was swept.

The Nuggets deploying Jokic as a playmaking / scoring hybrid with many DHOs and passes to cutters & shooters would have cooked Durant (a fringe T-10 guy for you)…. Like it did in reality in 2023 when he was blown out the floor and dropped noticeably on both sides of the floor against Denver - which can be attributed to their team defense that includes Jokic

Jokic had an optimal team around him. KD was 34 years old, and did not. Then his suboptimal and thin team got injuries to Booker, Paul and even Ayton in the last game. KD also has enough longevity to be 15th all time in scoring. Jokic gets a tonne of longevity and you can come back and see how he stacks up vs KD.

[70sFan]

I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

[One_and_Done]

Then you have Moses. Moses offers you the worst of both worlds. He will be a liability in the high pick and roll, but he doesn't give you either a defensive anchor nor a dominating offensive force inside.

Why do you think Moses would be a liability in the high P&R? He wasn't slow moving giant like Shaq, he was fairly quick for a center and had decently quick hands (that's always helpful on P&R coverage).

Why do you think he wouldn't be a "dominating offensive force inside"? What would prevent him in today's game for doing that?

I can't even with you rn.

To talk about Moses on offense in the same breathe as Shaq. It's just not serious. You're big on the playoffs. Here's Moses TS% in the playoffs from age 23 to 29: 544 on 29.3 pp100. That's lower than Shaq's career TS%. From age 22 to 30 Shaq's playoff TS% was 569 on 38.6 pp100, and he was doing it while getting double and triple teamed, and being intentionally sent to the line with the hack a shaq. He warped everything. Moses was not remotely in his league.

Shaq also played some of his prime after the illegal defence rules were scrapped, whereas Moses benefited from them. A bad passer like Moses would be eaten alive by help D to cut off the paint today.

[rk2023]

Of course they matter. I preferenced him last round. But he's got minimal longevity as an MVP type player, and is being compared to other awesome players too. Giannis has 2 MVPs of his own, and could argue he deserves a 3rd one too.

The Suns high PnR attack in 21 would have cooked Jokic... like it did in reality in 2021 when he was swept.

The Nuggets deploying Jokic as a playmaking / scoring hybrid with many DHOs and passes to cutters & shooters would have cooked Durant (a fringe T-10 guy for you)…. Like it did in reality in 2023 when he was blown out the floor and dropped noticeably on both sides of the floor against Denver - which can be attributed to their team defense that includes Jokic

Jokic had an optimal team around him. KD was 34 years old, and did not. Then his suboptimal and thin team got injuries to Booker, Paul and even Ayton in the last game. KD also has enough longevity to be 15th all time in scoring. Jokic gets a tonne of longevity and you can come back and see how he stacks up vs KD.

Did Jokic have an optimal team around him in 2021/22? Also did we watch the same Suns Nuggets series - the Suns were legitimately better with Landale on the floor than Ayton. The point of this isn’t to compare Jokic or Durant careers, but rather point out inconsistent standards.

[AEnigma]

Vote: Charles Barkley

More longevity than Jokic or Giannis(over 2x in the case of Jokic) and imo a higher peak/prime period than Wade or Harden.

Barkley's peak consisted of a period where he had a 10+ rTS and 60%+ 2P for five straight seasons while rebounding at a rate unheard of for someone his size. I simply don't understand how that isn't a standout peak.

People point to Barkley's lack of playoff success, like this:

Barkley I see as a guy who never won a title, peaked as maybe the third best player in the league, and has one legitimately impressive win as his team’s leader (1993 Sonics).

But again, almost his entire prime was spent languishing on a poor Philly team, so it's no wonder there's a a lack of impressive playoff performances. That some of those teams made the playoffs at all is a testament to Barkley's value.

Kevin Garnett coming in at #9 in this thread indicates that a lot of people here have given him the benefit of the doubt despite spending much of his prime in a bad situation. Why does Barkley not get the same benefit of the doubt?

Because we know he was not as significant a piece to those wins as Garnett was.

You talk about his peak/prime quality weighed against Wade, but many people feel he peaked in Phoenix — despite completely losing that “+10 rTS” streak — and he was relatively underwhelming after 1993, so what exactly is this peak/prime advantage?

If you don't limit it to wins, Barkley had a number of impressive playoff series during his prime.

27.6/14.7 on 62.2% FG - 1986 ECSF loss to Milwaukee
24.6/12.6 on 57.3% FG - 1987 EC1R loss to Milwaukee
27.0/11.7 on 64.4% FG - 1989 EC1R loss to New York
25.6/14.0 on 55.3% FG - 1990 EC1R win vs Cleveland
23.8/17.0 on 53.2% FG - 1990 ECSF loss to Chicago
23.7/11.0 on 52.0% FG - 1991 EC1R win vs Milwaukee
25.6/10.2 on 64.0% FG - 1991 ECSF loss to Chicago
The whole 1993 run
37.3/13.3 on 60.5% FG - 1994 WC1R win vs Golden State
33.7/13.7 on 57.4% FG - 1995 WC1R win vs Portland

There is a difference between being a bad playoff performer and not being some exemplary one. Aside from arguably the 1993 Sonics (based on SRS), Barkley never did better than expected. However, he had several losses which were to some degree unexpected. They were against Jordan and Hakeem, so hey, totally willing to err on “expected”, but as I have gone over, Barkley’s teams tended to underperform even outside of cold win/loss analysis.

Which brings us to…

I'm sure some would argue that putting up those numbers against what was in many cases first-round fodder doesn't qualify as impressive, but when you're 6'4-6'6'(depending on source) and you're primarily an inside scorer, putting up those statlines against frontlines that included Patrick Ewing/Charles Oakley, Brad Daugherty/Larry Nance, and Horace Grant/Scottie Pippen is impressive.

A 6'4' guy scoring at the volume and efficiency and rebounding at the rate with reasonable consistency in the playoffs is incredible.

I'm just getting really frustrated with this board's constant undervaluing of Sir Charles.

Barkley does not receive bonus points for being short. If anything, it is the opposite.

Scoring production does not mean much if it does not really translate into high impact. Why do most of us not have Dantley in the top fifty? Barkley’s scoring was “impressive” in much the same sense (honestly Dantley’s is more impressive based on shot profile and level of athleticism), but that “impressive” lack of height is also much of what kept him from being a better player. He was not much taller than Wade, but I am a lot more confident in building around Wade because a) Wade is a better defender generally, and b) I can play Wade as a guard next to much better defenders than I can with Barkley as a forward.

To the extent I would consider Barkley, it would be that his lower prime / out-of-prime years are better and more productive, and for as much as both dealt with limiting playoff injuries, Wade was hampered more. All the same, I am not sure what exactly suggests Barkley was regularly rising to a level where he would win more with the same approximate team situation as Wade, or that Wade would have won less with the same approximate team situation as Barkley. Wade at his best was a top fifteen-ish peak who could win a title by upsetting back-to-back 6-SRS teams with middling support. Barkley at his Philadelphia best was an underwhelming second-round exit generally not even losing to title teams, and then he joined a top five team and elevated them to looking like the league’s second or third best team. I think he merits top thirty, but you started pushing for him around top twenty, and for what — high field goal percentage?

[AEnigma]

I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

I would rather have Pippen and Reggie, but he and Barry are my next perimetre choices after.

[One_and_Done]

I think people should take a closer look on Havlicek for nomination at this point. He has everything in his resume to be considered - great longevity, a lot of team success, playoff resiliency, versatile and scalable skillset, two-way impact. What do you think about his candidacy?

I don't think of him, because look at when he played. I'd rather have Ray Allen or Paul George on my team.

[One_and_Done]

The Nuggets deploying Jokic as a playmaking / scoring hybrid with many DHOs and passes to cutters & shooters would have cooked Durant (a fringe T-10 guy for you)…. Like it did in reality in 2023 when he was blown out the floor and dropped noticeably on both sides of the floor against Denver - which can be attributed to their team defense that includes Jokic

Jokic had an optimal team around him. KD was 34 years old, and did not. Then his suboptimal and thin team got injuries to Booker, Paul and even Ayton in the last game. KD also has enough longevity to be 15th all time in scoring. Jokic gets a tonne of longevity and you can come back and see how he stacks up vs KD.

Did Jokic have an optimal team around him in 2021/22? Also did we watch the same Suns Nuggets series - the Suns were legitimately better with Landale on the floor than Ayton. The point of this isn’t to compare Jokic or Durant careers, but rather point out inconsistent standards.

It's failing. They had different contexts, and I assess their performance in those contexts differently. The inconsistency is only in your imagination because you have different preconceptions you're operating with.

[70sFan]

To talk about Moses on offense in the same breathe as Shaq. It's just not serious.

Where exactly did I say Moses was comparable to Shaq? Could you show me exact quote?

You're big on the playoffs. Here's Moses TS% in the playoffs from age 23 to 29: 544 on 29.3 pp100. That's lower than Shaq's career TS%. From age 22 to 30 Shaq's playoff TS% was 569 on 38.6 pp100,

It's 100th time you bring up pp100 + TS% to prove your point. I could as well talk with basketball-reference bot at this point...

Yes, Shaq is a better offensive player and scorer than Moses. That's not what we're discussing here.

and he was doing it while getting double and triple teamed, and being intentionally sent to the line with the hack a shaq. He warped everything. Moses was not remotely in his league.

Wait, are you suggesting that Moses wasn't doubled and tripled and didn't warp the defense in extreme way? Are you sure?
Yeah, Moses wasn't hacked because he was 80% FT shooter. You don't hack good FT shooters, you know?

Shaq also played some of his prime after the illegal defence rules were scrapped, whereas Moses benefited from them. A bad passer like Moses would be eaten alive by help D to cut off the paint today.

Moses played some of his prime before the illegal defense rule, he was perfectly fine.

You still didn't answer to any of my questions. You avoid them with Shaq vs Moses scoring comparison, because you don't have the answers.