What if Brandon Roy and Oden had stayed healthy?

[levon]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

[HomoSapien]

Perennial contenders. They also had Aldridge, Batum, Fernandez, Outlaw, Webster, and Steve Blake which could have been the makings of a great supporting cast.

[Capn'O]

Note that they also likely still acquire Gerald Wallace or a similar and better fitting player... but don't trade him for Lillard.

That team would have been nasty.

[Duffman100]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

This is a bit hyperbolic.

I really like Roy but I don't think he was going to be Dwayne Wade tier. Tier below and close. Wade was an absolute beast.

[FrodoBaggins]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

It was his scoring diversity like Devin Booker I think. And good playmaking. Was a guy who scored in many ways and was crafty with it. Had many counters. Could go left, right, play on-ball, off-ball, and score at all three levels and in the post. Made him a resilient scorer that was hard to gameplan/match up for and could fit into many teams. Very portable player.

[JustBuzzin]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

This is a bit hyperbolic.

I really like Roy but I don't think he was going to be Dwayne Wade tier. Tier below and close. Wade was an absolute beast.

Wade is kind of overhyped people forget all his championships came with Shaq and Lebron.

Wade without those guys had the Heat as a fringe playoff team. They never really won anything when Wade was the clear cut guy in Miami.

Roy on the other hand was a better shooter and could get to the rim with the best of them. He never had to rely on his athletic ability because his shot was so pure. I think if he stayed healthy he would have past Wade as a better alltime sg.

[Duffman100]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

This is a bit hyperbolic.

I really like Roy but I don't think he was going to be Dwayne Wade tier. Tier below and close. Wade was an absolute beast.

Wade is kind of overhyped people forget all his championships came with Shaq and Lebron.

Wade without those guys had the Heat as a fringe playoff team. They never really won anything when Wade was the clear cut guy in Miami.

Roy on the other hand was a better shooter and could get to the rim with the best of them. He never had to rely on his athletic ability because his shot was so pure. I think if he stayed healthy he would have past Wade as a better alltime sg.

Wade was the number 1 guy with Shaq in 2005/2006. He averaged 35 points a game in the finals.

[FrodoBaggins]

Roy's offense over the first four seasons of his career:

0-3 ft - 60.6% FG (27.8% of FGA)
3-10 ft - 44.1% FG (12.9% of FGA)
10-16 ft - 42.7% FG (13.4% of FGA)
16ft+ 2pt - 43.5% FG (27.3% of FGA)
3pt - 36.1% 3PT (18.7% of FGA) *15 heaves removed

Those numbers are fantastic for that 2007-2010 era. Don't compare them to today's numbers.

[Roy The Natural]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

It was his scoring diversity like Devin Booker I think. And good playmaking. Was a guy who scored in many ways and was crafty with it. Had many counters. Could go left, right, play on-ball, off-ball, and score at all three levels and in the post. Made him a resilient scorer that was hard to gameplan/match up for and could fit into many teams. Very portable player.

People also forget the Blazers absurdly slow pace back then. And the absolutely wild efficiency Roy played with for the period. Unlike someone like Wade, Roy looked like he would likely develop into an elite 3pt shooter as well. Wasn't the same level slasher as Wade obviously, but he was no slouch in that department.

I don't think he was ever going to surpass Wade. But Roy was CLEARLY the 3rd best SG in the league at the time, and by his 3rd year he was in many ways unguardable. Got to the rim nearly at will. Great in the P&R. Could post up, go eft, finish left, go right, finish right. Shoot the 3, shoot midrange. Get to the line.

[FrodoBaggins]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

It was his scoring diversity like Devin Booker I think. And good playmaking. Was a guy who scored in many ways and was crafty with it. Had many counters. Could go left, right, play on-ball, off-ball, and score at all three levels and in the post. Made him a resilient scorer that was hard to gameplan/match up for and could fit into many teams. Very portable player.

People also forget the Blazers absurdly slow pace back then. And the absolutely wild efficiency Roy played with for the period. Unlike someone like Wade, Roy looked like he would likely develop into an elite 3pt shooter as well. Wasn't the same level slasher as Wade obviously, but he was no slouch in that department.

That's a great point. His numbers should be looked at as more half-court-ish if that makes sense. Less easy buckets to be had.

[JRoy]

That Portland Team woulda been a dynasty. With Aldridge aswell?

I expect LMA would have been the odd man out.

[JRoy]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

I don’t know about easily, but they would be in the hunt every year barring injury (lol) and odds are they’d get at least one title.

[ShootersShoot]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

I think its because he was a high impact player. Despite not putting up very gaudy stats, he was a top 10 scorer the two seasons before he got injured. His lone playoff series before the injuries, he averaged 26.7ppg. He was 25 when he got injured, so not even in his prime. He was an extremely smart player who could be a #1 option and facilitate the offense. I agree that he was not some kind of superstar, but definitely a perennial all star. I'd put him around the paul george tier of players.

[JustBuzzin]

This is a bit hyperbolic.

I really like Roy but I don't think he was going to be Dwayne Wade tier. Tier below and close. Wade was an absolute beast.

Wade is kind of overhyped people forget all his championships came with Shaq and Lebron.

Wade without those guys had the Heat as a fringe playoff team. They never really won anything when Wade was the clear cut guy in Miami.

Roy on the other hand was a better shooter and could get to the rim with the best of them. He never had to rely on his athletic ability because his shot was so pure. I think if he stayed healthy he would have past Wade as a better alltime sg.

Wade was the number 1 guy with Shaq in 2005/2006. He averaged 35 points a game in the finals.

That's my point he got hyped off that 1 Finals in which Shaq was his 2nd option. Then after that those Heat teams were a non factor in the playoffs. Lebron came along and got him 2 more.

Wade has never won when it was just him.

[JustBuzzin]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

I don’t know about easily, but they would be in the hunt every year barring injury (lol) and odds are they’d get at least one title.

They easily had the best trio in the West during that time. If all 3 Roy/Oden/Aldridge stay healthy they easily win a championship with that core. Also Batum was hella underrated during that time. He was like a swiss army knight with his ability to facilitate and guard the best wing player and knock down 3's. That core would have been nasty.

[JRoy]

They win a championship easily.

Brandon Roy was one of the best closers in the NBA during that time. Roy was going to be the 3rd best sg of all time had he stayed healthy. Sorry Wade but Roy had it all.

I don’t know about easily, but they would be in the hunt every year barring injury (lol) and odds are they’d get at least one title.

They easily had the best trio in the West during that time. If all 3 Roy/Oden/Aldridge stay healthy they easily win a championship with that core. Also Batum was hella underrated during that time. He was like a swiss army knight with his ability to facilitate and guard the best wing player and knock down 3's. That core would have been nasty.

Swiss Army Knight.

Love it.

[Shakey Deal]

One of my favorite forgotten teams is the great what if of those late 00's Blazers teams. I am playing them all over again in the Lebron era in 2k24 and man its making this old guy get a little sad.

What if Brandon Roy and Greg Oden stayed healthy? Those two plus Lamarcus Aldridge only played 62 games together. Just 62! And their record? 52-10. FIFTY TWO wins and just 10 losses.

You take that sample size of games, spread it out to full 82 games for season after season and you get an outright dominant team. I believe if the injury gods had been less cruel that team with those three wins at least one or two championships. On the plus side other guys like Andre Miller, Camby, Batum, Steve Blake etc served as a solid core of talent around them.

What do you guys think? Go back in your memory banks or look them up if you need to see them for the first time. The talent was definitely there. If we could waive a magic wand and those guys stay healthy and have normal careers in terms of seasons played where do we see those players? What would those Blazers teams have done?

I think Brandon Roy goes down as an obvious HOF player and Oden would get in eventually as well. They would have at least one or two chips from their days together as Blazers.

I do believe that, if healthy, this blazers team could've become a dynasty, and both Roy and Oden had HOF potential, but...

Where did you get this 52-10 stat from?

I just checked it, and found out that the team record in games that Oden, Roy and Aldridge played in together is actually 53-27.
2008-09 season: 40-20
2009-10 season: 13-7

[levon]

I don't know what I'm missing with Brandon Roy. The stats don't peg him to be some kind of all time great. Didn't exactly have a dominant playoff resume. I remember watching that Game 4 against the Mavs and being as amazed as anyone, but it seems like that's doing a lot of heavy lifting for his career and he's become some kind of basketball martyr due to his injuries. In the games we did see him, it didn't look like he was on track to be some all-time great player. He was an older rookie who knew how to score, but there are a myriad of guards today I'd take over him. He also wasn't a great defender. Someone help me understand.

I think its because he was a high impact player. Despite not putting up very gaudy stats, he was a top 10 scorer the two seasons before he got injured. His lone playoff series before the injuries, he averaged 26.7ppg. He was 25 when he got injured, so not even in his prime. He was an extremely smart player who could be a #1 option and facilitate the offense. I agree that he was not some kind of superstar, but definitely a perennial all star. I'd put him around the paul george tier of players.

Yeah but it took him nearly 40 minutes a game to score that 26.7. Per 36 he scored 24 in that series on about league average TS at the time, maybe a little higher. And they lost in 6 games. Do we have a reliable measure of impact?

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2008-09/regular-season/
RAPM has him 16th in the league that season, pretty neutral D-RAPM. In the playoffs for that lone 6 game sample (too small), he drops to 0.1711 or 76th. That's not to be trusted.

I think Paul George level is about right, but PG was more athletic. I don't know if Roy's athleticism would give him a very high ceiling. He'd likely take a lot more 3s if he kept playing and that would somewhat account for his defense tailing off as he aged.

The disconnect to me is people talking about him as some kind of ATG guard if he had just kept going. To me that's just mythmaking.

[Buckets22]

KD would be playing on Oregon right now...

[FrodoBaggins]

Who's the closest stylistic comparison to Roy today? Booker? What do you guys think.