Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?

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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#61 » by colts18 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:53 pm

Djoker wrote:
Again, 3/4 ECF + Finals series, the Heat were below average defensively.

Well, you don't know that. Have you actually looked at just how variable Modern Era offenses are in the post-season? What if it is 25%? You listed 25% of LeBron's total series in the OP. You don't know, and until you do know by doing your own calculation, making wildly unfounded assumptions like "It is generally not a good explanation" doesn't make sense because you don't know, at all.


Ok so Lebron should not be expected to anchor a defense because of his large offensive load.
2011 was a mediocre defensive year letting the Finals opponent produce above their averages.

2012 was a bad defensive year letting both the ECF and Finals opponent produce above their averages.

[/quote]
Once again, we have to mention that almost all of the "Below-Average" defense that you are seeing in those Heat years was a result of 3 Point Variance. It had nothing to do with Bad Defense. It's proven that Opponent 3P% is a fluky stat. The defense has little control over whether their opponent makes a little or a lot of 3 Pointers.


2011 Mavs vs. Heat- 41 3P%

2013 Pacers- 37.8 3P%
2013 Spurs- 43.2 3P%

2014 Pacers- 38.1 3P%
2014 Spurs- 47.2 3P%

All of those "Bad" series came from hot 3 Point Shooting.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#62 » by OhayoKD » Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:55 pm

colts18 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Did Bron get significantly better as a defender post Miami? What was doing differently on the court?

For one, he was playing his natural position. In miami as a pf his signals/situional impact were suppressed:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642

For two, he lost the additional weight he had in Miami allowing himself to move quicker

For three, top offenses from this period were smaller allowing him to be more effective as a rim protector in the playoffs(warriors especially)

Of course this could also be phrased "was lebron a significantly worse defender from 2011-2014 then he was after or before?". Regardless, it's very silly to just curve down "not peak" signals because you don't think they're peak...Or to ignore how a team performs without its star(or how those teammates do without the star) when arguing the cast was actually better than other people claim it is

2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.

I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#63 » by parsnips33 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:58 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
colts18 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:For one, he was playing his natural position. In miami as a pf his signals/situional impact were suppressed:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642

For two, he lost the additional weight he had in Miami allowing himself to move quicker

For three, top offenses from this period were smaller allowing him to be more effective as a rim protector in the playoffs(warriors especially)

Of course this could also be phrased "was lebron a significantly worse defender from 2011-2014 then he was after or before?". Regardless, it's very silly to just curve down "not peak" signals because you don't think they're peak...Or to ignore how a team performs without its star(or how those teammates do without the star) when arguing the cast was actually better than other people claim it is

2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.

I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.


What do you think was his defensive peak?
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#64 » by OhayoKD » Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:01 pm

parsnips33 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
colts18 wrote:2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.

I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.


What do you think was his defensive peak?

2009.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#65 » by Djoker » Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:35 pm

colts18 wrote:
Djoker wrote:
Again, 3/4 ECF + Finals series, the Heat were below average defensively.

Well, you don't know that. Have you actually looked at just how variable Modern Era offenses are in the post-season? What if it is 25%? You listed 25% of LeBron's total series in the OP. You don't know, and until you do know by doing your own calculation, making wildly unfounded assumptions like "It is generally not a good explanation" doesn't make sense because you don't know, at all.


Ok so Lebron should not be expected to anchor a defense because of his large offensive load.
2011 was a mediocre defensive year letting the Finals opponent produce above their averages.

2012 was a bad defensive year letting both the ECF and Finals opponent produce above their averages.


Once again, we have to mention that almost all of the "Below-Average" defense that you are seeing in those Heat years was a result of 3 Point Variance. It had nothing to do with Bad Defense. It's proven that Opponent 3P% is a fluky stat. The defense has little control over whether their opponent makes a little or a lot of 3 Pointers.


2011 Mavs vs. Heat- 41 3P%

2013 Pacers- 37.8 3P%
2013 Spurs- 43.2 3P%

2014 Pacers- 38.1 3P%
2014 Spurs- 47.2 3P%

All of those "Bad" series came from hot 3 Point Shooting.


See I don't buy the 3pt variance theory. That can maybe explain one series but not 8/9 series and 10/17 series of defenses underperforming.

As for the defense having little control over opponent 3pt shooting, the data that we have over large samples suggests otherwise.

In 2013, the Pacers were the #1 defense and allowed 32.7% on 16.6 attempts per game.
In 2013, the Bobcats were the #30 defense and allowed 38.8% on 22.5 attempts per game.

In 2014, the Pacers were the #1 defense and allowed 34.5% on 19.0 attempts per game.
In 2014, the Bucks were the #30 defense and allowed 38.2% on 22.3 attempts per game.

We see similar trends in every season. The gaps in 3pt defense is very large between the best and worst defensive teams.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#66 » by lessthanjake » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:18 pm

Yeah, there’s a lot of variance in three-point percentage, but it’s not totally random. Better defenses give up a lower three-point percentage. That can randomly not hold true over a small sample because there’s also just variance layered on top of that, but the chances that random variance would consistently go against LeBron’s teams in like every late-stage playoff series during his defensive peak and that it has nothing to do with the defense itself is not particularly plausible IMO.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#67 » by lessthanjake » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:26 pm

OhayoKD wrote:I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.


You see, your tactic is to basically do the following:

1. Take whatever time period LeBron’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak then you scale up the assessment of LeBron’s peak based on an assumption that he was responsible for how well his team did in the best non-peak years and therefore must’ve been capable of even more in his peak.

2. Take whatever time period Jordan’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak then you scale down the assessment of Jordan in those years, based on an assumption that he could not have been responsible for how well his team did in those years since it was better than they did in his peak and therefore he couldn’t have caused it since he wasn’t individually better than before.

It’s just an obvious double standard where the analytical approach taken regarding the two players is completely different in a way that is systematically skewed towards the conclusion you want to come to. Motivated reasoning at its finest.

If LeBron was a better defender in Miami and the last couple years in the first Cleveland stint than he was in his second stint in Cleveland, then how was he consistently unable to have even remotely good defenses in the business end of the playoffs during those better defensive years? Why should we scale up his peak defense in our minds based on what his non-defensive-peak teams did, rather than scaling down his non-peak defense in our minds based on what his defensive-peak teams did?
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#68 » by OhayoKD » Wed Sep 13, 2023 9:55 pm

Me:
OhayoKD wrote:I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.

Alleged Havard Graduate
lessthanjake wrote:. Take whatever time period LeBron’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak

Except I didn't claim about Miami being his "peak", that was you:
Spoiler:
One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak?

And rather tellingly, this analysis only looks at certain team results, with no consideration of what happened without Lebron. If we threw that in, then even with the "buisness end of the playoffs" filter, Lebron still looks like strong defensive anchors

I am looking at the totality of Lebron's career and weighing everything to varying degrees, you are only looking at the years where his signals were lower.

If you had not been too lazy to verify..
Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:
capfan33 wrote:Giannis
Lebron
Jordan
Pretty clearly IMO even though with the playoffs you could probably make a reasonable argument for Lebron over Giannis.

Eh? I guess Unibro has been able to argue Lebron's impact approached "dpoy" level in the 2016 playoffs in specific matchups against small-ball opponents, but that was a specific opponent, and we're really just talking about a couple series here(2015, 2016 vs warriors, raptors and hawks?). But Giannis has his own examples of postseason defensive elevation(2019 vs the raptors) and importantly, it's far more consistent with far better results being mantained vs variety of opponents as opposed to a specific one.

I don't think giannis vs lebron should really be seen as arguable defensively in the playoffs
Anenigma wrote:

you would realize I have used Lebron's lack of replication of dpoy level impact [b[against him[/b].

This is yet another example of me not actually arguing what you want me to be arguing, which is why you refused to offer a receipt. Iow, you are lying.
Take whatever time period Jordan’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak then you scale down the assessment of Jordan in those years

But I am not looking to evaluate Jordan's teams, I am looking to evaluate Jordan and the cold data we have suggests his individual influence went down. There is nothing here to curve. The brunt of the evidence available suggests Jordan's impact went down. You are trying to curve up Jordan's best signals because his team got better. And simultaneously ignore Lebron's best singals, even when they showed up on title winning teams.

Yet again, you are projecting. Jordan's signals do not look Lebron-level unless you exclusively focus on his Miami regular-seasons. Hence you, through "motivated reasoning", have done everything possible to highlight those signals as the end-all be all. If we allow for consideration of years outside of what you assume to be Lebron's peak, Jordan becomes nearly impossible to argue for(at least in terms of "making teams win").

So instead you stick to your assumption, argue that assumption is valid because of a bunch of poorly conceived theories you can't actually support, and then when that doesn't go anywhere, turn around and accuse others of relying on the same "motivated reasoning" that drives virtually everything you post.

That is why I and others can often find receipts when you argue something you pretend you didn't argue. Not only do you have to lie about what other people say. You have to lie about what you said. Do not project your own bs onto me
djoker wrote:Lebron is one of the best offensive players ever. For me personally he's 3rd behind only Jordan and Magic.

Nope. By the rationale where he is not a true defensive anchor, he is also, clearly ahead of Jordan offensively. We all know why you made this post. You are fooling no one.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#69 » by lessthanjake » Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:29 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Me:
OhayoKD wrote:I don't really care how cleveland lebron compares to miami lebron. What matters is second cleveland lebron was an anchor on multiple elite playoff defenses. If you think miami was clearly better then in the right situation, miami lebron should have been capable of anchoring playoff defenses as good as 30+ lebron's while generating similar or better signals.

Alleged Havard Graduate
lessthanjake wrote:. Take whatever time period LeBron’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak

Except I didn't claim about Miami being his "peak", that was you:
Spoiler:
One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak?

And rather tellingly, this analysis only looks at certain team results, with no consideration of what happened without Lebron. If we threw that in, then even with the "buisness end of the playoffs" filter, Lebron still looks like strong defensive anchors

I am looking at the totality of Lebron's career and weighing everything to varying degrees, you are only looking at the years where his signals were lower.

If you had not been too lazy to verify..
Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:
capfan33 wrote:Giannis
Lebron
Jordan
Pretty clearly IMO even though with the playoffs you could probably make a reasonable argument for Lebron over Giannis.

Eh? I guess Unibro has been able to argue Lebron's impact approached "dpoy" level in the 2016 playoffs in specific matchups against small-ball opponents, but that was a specific opponent, and we're really just talking about a couple series here(2015, 2016 vs warriors, raptors and hawks?). But Giannis has his own examples of postseason defensive elevation(2019 vs the raptors) and importantly, it's far more consistent with far better results being mantained vs variety of opponents as opposed to a specific one.

I don't think giannis vs lebron should really be seen as arguable defensively in the playoffs
Anenigma wrote:

you would realize I have used Lebron's lack of replication of dpoy level impact [b[against him[/b].

This is yet another example of me not actually arguing what you want me to be arguing, which is why you refused to offer a receipt. Iow, you are lying.
Take whatever time period Jordan’s teams happened to have done the best, and then if you don’t think that was his peak then you scale down the assessment of Jordan in those years

But I am not looking to evaluate Jordan's teams, I am looking to evaluate Jordan and the cold data we have suggests his individual influence went down. There is nothing here to curve. The brunt of the evidence available suggests Jordan's impact went down. You are trying to curve up Jordan's best signals because his team got better. And simultaneously ignore Lebron's best singals, even when they showed up on title winning teams.

Yet again, you are projecting. Jordan's signals do not look Lebron-level unless you exclusively focus on his Miami regular-seasons. Hence you, through "motivated reasoning", have done everything possible to highlight those signals as the end-all be all. If we allow for consideration of years outside of what you assume to be Lebron's peak, Jordan becomes nearly impossible to argue for(at least in terms of "making teams win").

So instead you stick to your assumption, argue that assumption is valid because of a bunch of poorly conceived theories you can't actually support, and then when that doesn't go anywhere, turn around and accuse others of relying on the same "motivated reasoning" that drives virtually everything you post.

That is why I and others can often find receipts when you argue something you pretend you didn't argue. Not only do you have to lie about what other people say. You have to lie about what you said. Do not project your own bs onto me
djoker wrote:Lebron is one of the best offensive players ever. For me personally he's 3rd behind only Jordan and Magic.

Nope. By the rationale where he is not a true defensive anchor, he is also, clearly ahead of Jordan offensively. We all know why you made this post. You are fooling no one.


This is just the long-form rationalization I said you’d make. You are not consistent with your arguments, because you have specific conclusions you are obviously essentially always aiming to get to (or, often, to derail threads to). It’s not debatable so I’m not going to waste my time discussing it further, and your willingness to filibuster arguments with vague and insistent long-form claptrap doesn’t make your arguments any less inconsistent. I’m confident that people who read your posts see that. Also, btw, jealousy isn’t a good look.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#70 » by rk2023 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:54 pm

colts18 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Did Bron get significantly better as a defender post Miami? What was doing differently on the court?

For one, he was playing his natural position. In miami as a pf his signals/situional impact were suppressed:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642

For two, he lost the additional weight he had in Miami allowing himself to move quicker

For three, top offenses from this period were smaller allowing him to be more effective as a rim protector in the playoffs(warriors especially)

Of course this could also be phrased "was lebron a significantly worse defender from 2011-2014 then he was after or before?". Regardless, it's very silly to just curve down "not peak" signals because you don't think they're peak...Or to ignore how a team performs without its star(or how those teammates do without the star) when arguing the cast was actually better than other people claim it is

2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.


I’d say 2016 is on par with 2011-13, myself.

Not even close to directed your way but based on the rhetoric of this thread - I’d say anyone who says that LeBron wasn’t a good defender across his Heat tenure wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#71 » by lessthanjake » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:41 am

rk2023 wrote:
colts18 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:For one, he was playing his natural position. In miami as a pf his signals/situional impact were suppressed:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642

For two, he lost the additional weight he had in Miami allowing himself to move quicker

For three, top offenses from this period were smaller allowing him to be more effective as a rim protector in the playoffs(warriors especially)

Of course this could also be phrased "was lebron a significantly worse defender from 2011-2014 then he was after or before?". Regardless, it's very silly to just curve down "not peak" signals because you don't think they're peak...Or to ignore how a team performs without its star(or how those teammates do without the star) when arguing the cast was actually better than other people claim it is

2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.


I’d say 2016 is on par with 2011-13, myself.

Not even close to directed your way but based on the rhetoric of this thread - I’d say anyone who says that LeBron wasn’t a good defender across his Heat tenure wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.


I’m not sure anyone is arguing he wasn’t a really good defender in those years. I certainly am not. The issue, at least from my perspective, is more just the scale of how good he was. Some people act like he was an elite “defensive anchor,” but he just wasn’t really that type of player or having that type of impact. Which is fine—that’s more the province of big men, so saying that LeBron isn’t that is pretty obvious. But there’s posters who make hyperbolic arguments that essentially make pointing out the obvious necessary.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#72 » by VanWest82 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:57 am

Are these 2016 Lebron takes postseason only?

Regular season per 100:

12: 2.6 stl, 1.1 blk, 9.0 dreb
13: 2.4 stl, 1.2 blk, 9.4 dreb
16: 2.0 stl, 0.9 blk, 8.6 dreb

We unfortunately don't have the data, but I'd strongly opine that Bron had more deflections, deterred more shots, contested more shots, and just created more havoc in general in 12-13 than 16. I don't think it's all that close either. Game to game during the RS, he was much better. Edit: regular season data contextualizes post season data.

I'd also suggest that 2016 defensive on/offs were dramatically influenced by Cavs lack of a) rim protector and b) back up two way forward. Heat had Wade, Bosh, Battier, Haslem, Anthony, Birdman, etc. You can't just look at on/offs. Line up combinations and roster construction matter. It's like when PC board tried to argue that Bron was the defensive anchor for 2020 Lakers because he got to play with Caruso and Dwight when AD sat. No.

Edit: it's the same on offense. Did Lakers offense not fall off a cliff 2nd half this year because Lebron all of a sudden sucked? No. It's because Lakers had Dlo, Reaves, and Schroder to handle the ball and could still play at least two ball handlers at a time (as appose to Kyrie having to play with Delly or Shump or whomever).
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#73 » by Colbinii » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:33 am

VanWest82 wrote:Are these 2016 Lebron takes postseason only?


Yeah, specifically in the Conference Finals and Finals. If you read the thread you can catchup.


I'd also suggest that 2016 defensive on/offs were dramatically influenced by Cavs lack of a) rim protector and b) back up two way forward. Heat had Wade, Bosh, Battier, Haslem, Anthony, Birdman, etc. You can't just look at on/offs. Line up combinations and roster construction matter. It's like when PC board tried to argue that Bron was the defensive anchor for 2020 Lakers because he got to play with Caruso and Dwight when AD sat. No.


You list a handful of players yet neglect when and how they played. Imagine being like "Jordan played on the Bulls with Rodman, Grant, Pippen!".

None of the players listed are elite rim protectors.

Believe it or not, someone posted in/out lineups with LeBron and other players.

Everything you have said is pointless to the discussion and adds nothing other than "LeBron Hater Enters the Thread". At least lessthanjake admits he is being hyperbolic and DJoker provide some statistics [granted his conclusions weren't exactly all that objective].
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#74 » by VanWest82 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:53 am

Colbinii wrote:Everything you have said is pointless to the discussion and adds nothing other than "LeBron Hater Enters the Thread". At least lessthanjake admits he is being hyperbolic and DJoker provide some statistics [granted his conclusions weren't exactly all that objective].

I did post stats and there are takes itt claiming that 2016 Lebron is basically akin to his defensive peak, or at least Heat Lebron peak. Peaks don't exist only in the post season even though this is a post season thread. Also, those Heat players were representative of two way defensive wings/forwards and rim protectors, a) and b). Cavs had little of either, hence the discrepancy in defensive on/offs.

Basically, you quoted me just so you could say your quoted part. Congratulations on being an ****. Don't bother quoting me next time.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#75 » by VanWest82 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:01 am

As to the premise of the thread, clearly the answer is Lebron isn't actually a defensive anchor. This fact is accepted everywhere but the PC board.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#76 » by penbeast0 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:12 am

OhayoKD's post is a clear violation of the prohibition on attacking other posters, lessthanjake's is fine.
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#77 » by Djoker » Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:14 pm

We can get a pretty good idea about who was the most impactful defender on the 2015 and 2016 Cavs by using shot tracking from NBA.com and looking at:
- the number of shots contested in the paint
- the dFG% on shots taken in the paint

After all defensive anchors protect the paint well.

2015 Regular Season
Lebron James: 63.8 dFG% (97/152) +5.1%
Tristan Thompson: 56.6 dFG% (218/385) -2.3%
Timofey Mozgov: 52.6 dFG% (257/489) -6.4%
Kevin Love: 56.0 dFG% (232/414) -2.8%

All the other Cavs bigs did much better than Lebron and all except him actually made a difference protecting the paint.

Mozgov looks like the best defender on the team by some distance.

2015 Playoffs
Lebron James: 52.8 dFG% (38/72) -6.9%
Tristan Thompson: 56.2 dFG% (68/121) -2.4%
Timofey Mozgov: 42.9 dFG% (42/98) -16.5%
Kevin Love: 61.9 dFG% (13/21) +3.7%

Love got injured in the first round.

In the playoffs Lebron looks a whole lot better but Mozgov is again the Cavs' most impactful defender.

2016 Regular Season
Lebron James: 50.9 dFG% (88/173) -8.5%
Tristan Thompson: 56.2 dFG% (232/413) -3.2%
Timofey Mozgov: 52.3 dFG% (162/310) -7.9%
Kevin Love: 63.2 dFG% (247/391) +3.2%

Love was a bad defender. Lebron was great at defending shots in the paint but note the low volume of shots contested compared to both Tristan and Mozgov. Mozgov again looks like the best defender on the team.

2016 Playoffs
Lebron James: 38.5 dFG% (25/65) -22.3%
Tristan Thompson: 59.4 dFG% (60/101) -1.2%
Timofey Mozgov: 53.8 dFG% (7/13) -3.8%
Kevin Love: 57.9 dFG% (55/95) -3.6%

Lebron was legitimately fantastic in the 2016 Playoffs on the defensive end. Mozgov got very few minutes with Love healthy and while Tristan and Love contested more shots than Lebron they didn't do nearly as good of a job.

Some conclusions:
- apart from the 2016 Playoffs where Lebron was king, Mozgov was almost certainly the Cavs' most impactful defender in the 2015 RS, 2015 Playoffs and 2016 RS; even in limited minutes he contested a lot shots in the paint and did so very very well
- Love is not as much of a defensive negative as I thought he was; particularly in the playoffs (including the 2017 and 2018 data) Love actually did a good job protecting the rim consistently holding opponents below their averages; however he was a below average defender in the regular season
- Tristan is consistently very good on defense although a clear step below Mozgov probably because he lacks size
- Lebron does generally ramp up in the playoffs; he contests a lot more paint shots per game in the playoffs than he does in the regular season going from 2.2 to 3.6 in 2015 and from 2.3 to 3.1 in 2016; however he still contests way fewer shots at the rim than most big men
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#78 » by OhayoKD » Thu Sep 14, 2023 11:50 pm

Djoker wrote:We can get a pretty good idea about who was the most impactful defender on the 2015 and 2016 Cavs by using shot tracking from NBA.com and looking at:

Or we can just...look at their impact??

Lineup-data:
Spoiler:
ohayokd wrote:
heartbreakkid wrote:Keeping in mind Lebron averaged 11 more minutes in the regular season and 14 more minutes in the playoffs
2015 Cavs, Lebron no Mosgov Defensive Rating: 107, net: +8, 1685 min
2015 Cavs, Mosgov no Lebron Defensive Rating: 109, net: +2, 340 min
2015 Cavs, Lebron lineups(2494 min) vs No Lebron Lineups(1492 min), 4-point defensive improvement
2015 Cavs, Mosgov lineups(1149 min) vs No Mosgov Lineups(2807 min), 5-point defensive improvement

If you're determined, a case for the two being comparable per-possession is there(just pretend he didn't play in Denver), but Lebron clearly is more impactful over the course of a game even restricting our evaluation to mosgov's secret "dpoy" season(and ignoring that the nugget's defense actually improved by a point without him)

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Just looking at the lineups they played in cleveland, Mosgov grades out as marginally more valuable per-possession but signficantly less valuable over the course of a game.

Notably before he got to Cleveland, he was a negative with Denver improving defensively in his absence

If we take out rotations as a factor and just look at what happens when the two defenders are removed from the picture completely...
Spoiler:
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It's Lebron who looks more valuable in cleveland, seeing a bigger drop-off than Mosgov when he's off the floor.. Moreover, just like with the lineup-data, before playing with Lebron, Mosgov grades as a negative on Denver speaking to what he offers as a floor-general.

And of course, this applies to pretty much all these alleged "real anchors" lebron played with pre-lakers...
Spoiler:
OhayoKD wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Related to one of the other posts on here - who do you see as the best defensive player on those Heat teams? LeBron? Bosh? Battier doesn't seem to have the minutes, but maybe on a per-possession basis?

Also might this be a case where "best" and "most important" are not synonymous? My instinct is to say Bron was the best and Bosh was most important but I haven't thought about it too hard

[img]https://media.discorda
[img]pp.net/attachments/807803459331555363/1150981034150727710/image.png?width=1434&height=284[/img]
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Lineup ratings seem to think the answer is Lebron for both :dontknow:

Lebron's track-record before and after is also much stronger fwiw(his discernable impact and clear cut "anchoryness" jumps when he's small-forward(and trades bulk for quickness physically) in both cleveland stints.

Maybe you're overthinking this....

(Miami)

Spoiler:
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(Early Cleveland)


Maybe there's more to defense than opposing shooting percentage, steals, and block totals? (never mind that cleveland's blocks went down more without lebron than they did without mosgov...)

Either way lebron being those teams's best defender is about the least debatable thing in this thread. And yet...
SHAQ32 wrote:I would tend to think it's because LeBron can't anchor a team defensively

VanWest82 wrote:As to the premise of the thread, clearly the answer is Lebron isn't actually a defensive anchor. This fact is accepted everywhere but the PC board.

:dontknow:
lessthanjake wrote:
rk2023 wrote:
colts18 wrote:2nd Stint Cleveland LeBron was not a better defender than Miami Heat LeBron :lol: Anyone who says that wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.


I’d say 2016 is on par with 2011-13, myself.

Not even close to directed your way but based on the rhetoric of this thread - I’d say anyone who says that LeBron wasn’t a good defender across his Heat tenure wasn't watching LeBron play defense in 2011 or 2012 when he was shutting down superstars and could still average 30 PPG.


I’m not sure anyone is arguing he wasn’t a really good defender in those years. I certainly am not. The issue, at least from my perspective, is more just the scale of how good he was. Some people act like he was an elite “defensive anchor,” but he just wasn’t really that type of player or having that type of impact. Which is fine—that’s more the province of big men, so saying that LeBron isn’t that is pretty obvious. But there’s posters who make hyperbolic arguments that essentially make pointing out the obvious necessary.

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its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#79 » by SHAQ32 » Fri Sep 15, 2023 12:01 am

Being your team's best defender doesn't automatically mean you're also an anchor. Would we call Sherman Douglas an offensive anchor since he led the Clippers in assists?
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs? 

Post#80 » by OhayoKD » Fri Sep 15, 2023 12:06 am

SHAQ32 wrote:Being your team's best defender doesn't automatically mean you're also an anchor. Would we call Sherman Douglas an offensive anchor since he led the Clippers in assists?

Okay so what is an anchor then. By what margin do you have to be the best? How much do you teams have to improve with you? If Lebron does not meet the bar for an anchor than who does, Kareem?
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL

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