Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               lessthanjake
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Okay, so there’s obviously a pretty big disconnect here if there are people using the term “defensive anchor” to merely mean a team’s best defensive player.
            
                                    
                                    OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Colbinii
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
VanWest82 wrote:As to the premise of the thread, clearly the answer is Lebron isn't actually a defensive anchor. This fact is accepted everywhere but the PC board.
How the hell are you assuming this is the premise?
No where in OP does it mention anything about Defensive Anchor.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
- homecourtloss
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
I wonder if that poster who popped up in the Magic/Jordan thread to say he was tired of “agenda posts” and anti-Jordan posting will show up in this thread with  the different agendas being thrown around.
            
                                    
                                    lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.
lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               VanWest82
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Colbinii wrote:VanWest82 wrote:As to the premise of the thread, clearly the answer is Lebron isn't actually a defensive anchor.
How the hell are you assuming this is the premise?
Maybe I didn't make myself clear the last time. Please stop quoting me. Your intentions aren't on the level. Either that or you're an idiot and I don't think that's the case.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Colbinii
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
VanWest82 wrote:Colbinii wrote:VanWest82 wrote:As to the premise of the thread, clearly the answer is Lebron isn't actually a defensive anchor.
How the hell are you assuming this is the premise?
Maybe I didn't make myself clear the last time. Please stop quoting me. Your intentions aren't on the level. Either that or you're an idiot and I don't think that's the case.
I don't ever read what you respond to my posts with.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Colbinii
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
homecourtloss wrote:I wonder if that poster who popped up in the Magic/Jordan thread to say he was tired of “agenda posts” and anti-Jordan posting will show up in this thread with the different agendas being thrown around.
That would involve them not having an agenda themselves.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Djoker
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
With ON-OFF data which OhayoKD calls "impact" it only really makes sense to use with large samples.  In the data he posted, Mozgov only had 340 minutes on the floor without Lebron which is equivalent to about 7 games.  Ben Wallace had 122 minutes without Lebron which is less than 3 games.  And of course he ignored that the defensive dropoff without Mozgov was bigger than that without Lebron.  But it doesn't matter. 
Mozgov in way fewer minutes than Lebron in 2015 contested way more shots at the rim and did so much better as well. But it doesn't matter. We should use tiny lineup samples of a few hundred minutes as end-all be all even though we know that players who don't protect the rim well or contest few shots at the rim have marginal impact defensively. Rim protection is by far the largest driver of defensive impact.
Mozgov also did way better in the 2015 postseason by an even larger margin and did better than Lebron in the 2016 regular season too. Lebron was only the Cavs' most impactful defender in the 2016 playoffs.
            
                                    
                                    
                        Mozgov in way fewer minutes than Lebron in 2015 contested way more shots at the rim and did so much better as well. But it doesn't matter. We should use tiny lineup samples of a few hundred minutes as end-all be all even though we know that players who don't protect the rim well or contest few shots at the rim have marginal impact defensively. Rim protection is by far the largest driver of defensive impact.
Mozgov also did way better in the 2015 postseason by an even larger margin and did better than Lebron in the 2016 regular season too. Lebron was only the Cavs' most impactful defender in the 2016 playoffs.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Colbinii wrote:homecourtloss wrote:I wonder if that poster who popped up in the Magic/Jordan thread to say he was tired of “agenda posts” and anti-Jordan posting will show up in this thread with the different agendas being thrown around.
That would involve them not having an agenda themselves.
Speaking of
Djoker wrote:With ON-OFF data which OhayoKD calls "impact" it only really makes sense to use with large samples.
These large samples?
Spoiler: 
It's Lebron who looks more valuable in cleveland, seeing a bigger drop-off than Mosgov when he's off the floor.. Moreover, just like with the lineup-data, before playing with Lebron, Mosgov grades as a negative on Denver speaking to what he offers as a floor-general.
If only I had literally provided larger samples for Wallace and Mosgov where they looked worse!
And of course he ignored that the defensive dropoff without Mozgov was bigger than that without Lebron. But it doesn't matter.
It was marginally bigger per-possession which I acknowledged. But of course you ignored that advantage came with a massive minutes disparity. Even if we took those lineup-numbers at face-value(which you are now saying we shouldn't), Mosgov and Wallace do not play enough minutes offer comparable defensive impact. And, rather tellingly, over those larger samples you suddenly care about, the gap between them and Lebron increases, suggesting that those slight per-possession advantage are noise.
If you want to use the small samples, Lebron is still the best defender. If you want to use the large ones, he is the best defender by rather large margin. Extend that sample past their very best looking years, and the gap swings more and more towards Lebron.
Thus, Lebron was the anchor. Or at least the very clear most valuable defender whose teams fell off significantly without him anchoring them. That is, by conventional standards, means Lebron anchored those defenses.
Also by conventional standaards, you are arguing with a strawman, as you and lessthanjake have been doing for a large chunk of your posts.
This is very much the pinnacle of "motivated reasoning": lying about what someone else is saying, and then ignoring when they provide evidence that addresses your alleged concerns. People will throw out words like "bias" and "agenda", but it's really not the point.
Everyone has an agenda. If they say they don't, they lack self-awareness. What matters is when those agendas lead to bad-faith discussion, something entirely determined by what you say, not why you say it.
Do you say people said things they didn't say frequently, even when you are shown they didn't say it?
Do you bring up caveats regarding evidence on one position(sample size!) and then forget them when convenient?
Do you make baseless claims and double down when you are offered contradictory information?
Do you try to gatekeep what should and shouldn't be discussed?
Do you feign or exaggerate confidence("not debatable", "very narrow fact") without offering anything to justify it?
And when you mention someone's agenda, do you do so after you've tackled the substance of what they've said, or is it just used as an excuse to avoid points and evidence that are inconvenient for your priors?
Those are indicators of "motivated reasoning". If those indicators(or alternatives) are not touched on when you claim someone else(or a group of people) is biased, then the issue isn't them. The issue is [b[you[/b]. More specifically, that you have nothing to offer.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Djoker
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
The line up data does not help your argument whatsoever. 
2015 Regular Season

Lebron ON Mozgov ON: 100.44 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov ON: 101.09 DRtg
Lebron ON Mozgov OFF: 107.55 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov OFF: 108.18 DRtg
The lineups with Mozgov and no Lebron are way better on defense (-6.46) compared to lineups with Lebron and no Mozgov.
2015 Playoffs

Lebron ON Mozgov ON: 99.11 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov ON: 96.70 DRtg
Lebron ON Mozgov OFF: 109.20 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov OFF: 106.83 DRtg
The lineups with Mozgov and no Lebron are way better on defense (-10.09) compared to lineups with Lebron and no Mozgov.
The gap is even bigger than the regular season. And note that for the playoffs when Lebron is on the bench, the defense improves.
Why you'd want to use such small samples to prove anything is beyond me but the lineup data merely supports what the defensive tracking already told us. The whole "Mozgov has a case per possession but not overall" is BS. Mozgov has a total defensive impact better than Lebron's. Despite playing fewer minutes, Mozgov contested way more total shots in the paint compared to Lebron and did so way more effectively. Both in the 2015 regular season and especially in the 2015 playoffs where Mozgov quite frankly looks spectacular defensively.
            
                                    
                                    
                        2015 Regular Season

Lebron ON Mozgov ON: 100.44 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov ON: 101.09 DRtg
Lebron ON Mozgov OFF: 107.55 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov OFF: 108.18 DRtg
The lineups with Mozgov and no Lebron are way better on defense (-6.46) compared to lineups with Lebron and no Mozgov.
2015 Playoffs

Lebron ON Mozgov ON: 99.11 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov ON: 96.70 DRtg
Lebron ON Mozgov OFF: 109.20 DRtg
Lebron OFF Mozgov OFF: 106.83 DRtg
The lineups with Mozgov and no Lebron are way better on defense (-10.09) compared to lineups with Lebron and no Mozgov.
The gap is even bigger than the regular season. And note that for the playoffs when Lebron is on the bench, the defense improves.
Why you'd want to use such small samples to prove anything is beyond me but the lineup data merely supports what the defensive tracking already told us. The whole "Mozgov has a case per possession but not overall" is BS. Mozgov has a total defensive impact better than Lebron's. Despite playing fewer minutes, Mozgov contested way more total shots in the paint compared to Lebron and did so way more effectively. Both in the 2015 regular season and especially in the 2015 playoffs where Mozgov quite frankly looks spectacular defensively.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
- Joao Saraiva
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Djoker wrote:I've been combing through some rDRtg of different teams and I noticed that Lebron's teams collapsed on defense way too often in the playoffs. Even more than just a few finals series as I believed before.
I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) except for 2010 where he lost in Round 2. From 2020 onwards AD is the defensive anchor and Lebron isn't in his prime anymore.
Note that rDRtg is defense relative to opponent ORtg. So any positive number means your team played worse defense than an average team did against this opponent in the regular season. Around +5 is league worst defensive level and +10 is historically bad defense.
2009 ECF vs. Magic: +4.1 rDRtg
2010 ECSF vs. Celtics: +1.1 rDRtg
2011 Finals vs. Mavericks: +1.0 rDRtg
2012 ECF vs. Celtics: +2.5 rDRtg
2012 Finals vs. Thunder: +0.8 rDRtg
2013 ECF vs. Pacers: +2.9 rDRtg
2013 Finals vs. Spurs: +1.0 rDRtg
2014 ECF vs. Pacers: +6.1 rDRtg
2014 Finals vs. Spurs: +10.3 rDRtg
2017 Finals vs. Warriors: +5.7 rDRtg
2018 Finals vs. Warriors: +11.0 rDRtg
There are several possible explanations:
a) Lebron, being the pseudo defensive anchor of these teams, is a wildly inconsistent defender. His individual struggles or lack of effort on the defensive end largely contributed to these results.
b) The teams' defensive makeup was flawed. For instance these teams not having traditional big men to protect the rim relied more heavily on pinpoint rotations to stop penetration and recover quickly. Fatigue late in the playoffs along with generally facing better offenses caused these collapses.
c) The teams were offensively slanted in essence sacrificing defense for better offense.
Honestly I think it's a combination of all three reasons.
Against Orlando it was just a big mismatch. Cavs played two traditional bigs and none could stop Howard. They also weren't fast enough to run arround Lewis. Pietrus, Hedo were too big for any wing not named LeBron. Everything screams disaster on defense.
Against the Celtics... Celtics coasted a ton during the regular season. They were a much better team than their numbers suggested. And think about this... You have Ilgauskas or Shaq against Perkins. Fine. Then Jamison who is a short PF defending Kevin Garnett. Then Sheed geting in the C spot for Perkins at times and stretching the floor.... yeah he's either gonna shoot over Jamison or Varejao or Z and Shaq are not gonna stretch the defense that much. Then you have Rondo making whatever he wants of Mo Williams and old Parker running to get to Allen. Yikes. Everything spells disaster again. Cavs had bad rosters and had no business discussing series against the Celtics, we just thought otherwise cause of RS.
2011 +1... Mavs were right on average. I didn't feel much of a problem there. It was a competitive series solved by a complete meltdown adn confusion of James on offense against zone. I thought their defense was decent for the most part.
2012 - again things were there on average. Still Bosh was injured for a portion of time, and he was a good defender. He was replaced with Joel who was a meh player but good on D. I think offense was more of an issue with Bosh out.
2013 - Oh yeah LeBron was the main rim protector vs Indiana. Problem with that is they couldn't stop Hibbert. He was just too big for that Heat small ball.
Against the Spurs +1... looks right on average.
2014 - Heat got old. Too slow rotating. It's amazing they still made it to the finals - Nets were old but Pacers should have caught up.
2015 and 2016 - why no data? Didn't fill the agenda?
2017 - Yeah they couldn't stop the Warriors. They tried to spread their defense as much as they could and it opened holes in the middle. Bron defended Barnes in the previous year, but now KD is in his place. So it becomes a problem. Bron can't play help D like he did and by sticking to KD and Cavs over playing every PnR... well, things got ugly. They couldn't stop the Warriors. Even if on offense Cleveland gave em problems the defensive matchup was very hard for them. They needed bigger guards on Klay and Curry, they needed Bron to be on Green to play help D and they had no defender to be on Kevin if it wasn't LBJ. Love wasn't fast, JR Smith was too small and caught on KD a bunch of times... I mean, there are all sorts of problems again.
2018 - Cavs were utter garbage on defense in 2018. Never a defense as bad as Cleveland's made past the 1st round previously. So getting to the finals was actually beating all the odds. Now you put guys like Korver on the court against the team with the biggest spacing of all time... it spells disaster all over the place.
You should include 2020. Yes Davis was the best defender for the Lakers. But Bron had a hell of a run on defense himself.
We can question his effort for a lot of time as he got older, but he's a capable defender. Even last year we saw him moving his feet quick enough to stay in front of Jamal and switching on Jokic and being physical on him in the post and making things hard. This on a game he played 48 and scored 40.... at his age. Think about that for a minute.
To sum it up, Heat were quite flawed on defense and Cleveland too. They went as far as they could trough Bron ball and star power, and they could hide their defensive liabilities to a certain extent... but you can only hide it so much. The more difficult the opponent is the more they'll expose you, or you eventually get caught on a bad matchup on defense if you play very small or something.
GSW aren't a bad defensive team, but my god look at them last year vs Davis. They got murdered too for not having proper bodies to send at him.
“These guys have been criticized the last few years for not getting to where we’re going, but I’ve always said that the most important thing in sports is to keep trying. Let this be an example of what it means to say it’s never over.” - Jerry Sloan
                        Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Djoker wrote:The line up data does not help your argument whatsoever.
2015 Regular Season
No way you just used a 189 minute sample after complaining about sample size on a 2807 minute one...
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               Djoker
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
OhayoKD wrote:Djoker wrote:The line up data does not help your argument whatsoever.
2015 Regular Season
No way you just used a 189 minute sample after complaining about sample size on a 2807 minute one...
I said in my two previous posts that ON-OFF in small samples is meaningless. I just posted it to show that even (useless) lineup data doesn't help your argument.
Anyways this thread shows that Lebron teams consistently perform poorly on the defensive end in the final stages of the playoffs. From 2009-2014 which was his defensive prime, Lebron teams underperformed defensively in 8/9 ECF and Final series (plus the 2nd round loss in 2010). Then 2017 and 2018 Finals were also horrifyingly bad. And from the ten underperforming ECF and Finals series from 2009-2018, in a whopping eight of them, Lebron's teams were the worst performing defense against their opponent in that postseason. Only against the 2011 Mavs and 2012 Thunder can we give a little bit of leeway as those teams torched a few other teams even worse. But then again the 2011 Heat and 2012 Heat were 3rd and 4th in the league defensively so they are supposed to do much better than merely league average.
That leaves 2015 and 2016 but even those years aren't the perfect victory lap that they appear to be.
In 2015 because of injuries for Kyrie and Love, the Cavs played a super defensively-minded lineup in the finals with Dellavedova/Shumpert/Lebron/Thompson/Mozgov. When you put four really good defenders around your star you better have a good defensive team! It's also clear from the plethora of evidence that's been posted that Mozgov, not Lebron, was the Cavs' most impactful defender by some distance in 2015 and especially so in the playoffs. The Pelicans were -2.8 rDRtg, Grizzlies -4.6 rDRtg, Rockets -0.9 rDRtg and the Cavs -4.3 rDRtg against the Warriors in the playoffs. This shows that Golden State generally struggled offensively in the playoffs.
2016 is a different story in terms of the team situation. The Cavs played a super good offensive lineup with Kyrie and Love and still held up defensively late in the playoffs. Lebron was also undoubtedly great on defense in the postseason including the finals. However the Warriors team they faced only had Curry play only one more series which was the WCF against the Thunder and in that series the Thunder had a better -6.6 rDRtg against the Warriors than the Cavs did with -6.0 rDRtg. Again this suggests that the Warriors were nowhere nearly as good offensively as they were in the regular season. One has to wonder how that series would have gone if Curry hadn't gotten hurt just like Lebron fans can rightfully wonder how the 2015 series would have gone with Kyrie and Love playing.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:Djoker wrote:The line up data does not help your argument whatsoever.
2015 Regular Season
No way you just used a 189 minute sample after complaining about sample size on a 2807 minute one...
I said in my two previous posts that ON-OFF in small samples is meaningless. I just posted it to show that even (useless) lineup data doesn't help your argument.
No, you showed that you need to use the smallest sample possible to argue for mosgov here. I literally gave you data for a 2800 minute sample with Lebron and then a 2259 one from games the nuggets could'nt use mosgov at all and a 1728 minute one where the cavs couldn't use him at all.
You ignored all three because they all suggest that mosgov being the true defensive anchor is a joke. Just like those samples also would for old ben-wallace.
That is not "small-sample" on/off. Those are large samples and they all say the same thing. The fact mosgov looks worse the less Lebron is a potential factor is a pretty big tell this is a dumb hill to die on
The rest is just gerrymandering. You want to use less than 60 percent of an already cherrypicked ser of series from when he was an anchor to lampoon his defense, but also want to ignore that the offensive ratings from those series would suggest lebron should only be compared to nash offensively.
I don't care if you divide up 5 as 2+3 or 4+1, but refusing to aknowledge the 4 while fixating on the 1 is clearly "motivated reasoning"
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               lessthanjake
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:Djoker wrote:The line up data does not help your argument whatsoever.
2015 Regular Season
No way you just used a 189 minute sample after complaining about sample size on a 2807 minute one...
I said in my two previous posts that ON-OFF in small samples is meaningless. I just posted it to show that even (useless) lineup data doesn't help your argument.
Anyways this thread shows that Lebron teams consistently perform poorly on the defensive end in the final stages of the playoffs. From 2009-2014 which was his defensive prime, Lebron teams underperformed defensively in 8/9 ECF and Final series (plus the 2nd round loss in 2010). Then 2017 and 2018 Finals were also horrifyingly bad. And from the ten underperforming ECF and Finals series from 2009-2018, in a whopping eight of them, Lebron's teams were the worst performing defense against their opponent in that postseason. Only against the 2011 Mavs and 2012 Thunder can we give a little bit of leeway as those teams torched a few other teams even worse. But then again the 2011 Heat and 2012 Heat were 3rd and 4th in the league defensively so they are supposed to do much better than merely league average.
That leaves 2015 and 2016 but even those years aren't the perfect victory lap that they appear to be.
In 2015 because of injuries for Kyrie and Love, the Cavs played a super defensively-minded lineup in the finals with Dellavedova/Shumpert/Lebron/Thompson/Mozgov. When you put four really good defenders around your star you better have a good defensive team! It's also clear from the plethora of evidence that's been posted that Mozgov, not Lebron, was the Cavs' most impactful defender by some distance in 2015 and especially so in the playoffs. The Pelicans were -2.8 rDRtg, Grizzlies -4.6 rDRtg, Rockets -0.9 rDRtg and the Cavs -4.3 rDRtg against the Warriors in the playoffs. This shows that Golden State generally struggled offensively in the playoffs.
2016 is a different story in terms of the team situation. The Cavs played a super good offensive lineup with Kyrie and Love and still held up defensively late in the playoffs. Lebron was also undoubtedly great on defense in the postseason including the finals. However the Warriors team they faced only had Curry play only one more series which was the WCF against the Thunder and in that series the Thunder had a better -6.6 rDRtg against the Warriors than the Cavs did with -6.0 rDRtg. Again this suggests that the Warriors were nowhere nearly as good offensively as they were in the regular season. One has to wonder how that series would have gone if Curry hadn't gotten hurt just like Lebron fans can rightfully wonder how the 2015 series would have gone with Kyrie and Love playing.
Yeah, at this point this is all just obviously right, and I don’t really even see what there is for others to argue about.
LeBron is not a “defensive anchor” unless the term is used in such a completely generalized way that it has no specific meaning about the role a player played and is just used to refer to a team’s best defensive player. And LeBron may well have been his team’s best defensive player in his defensive peak. But that would mean he was the best defensive player on teams that consistently collapsed defensively in the business end of the playoffs. So if defensive-peak LeBron was a “defensive anchor” then he clearly wasn’t a very good one. You obviously did not want to have defensive-peak LeBron be your best defensive player in the business end of the playoffs. A few post-defensive-peak series against a handful of mediocre Eastern Conference teams and then a couple good defensive showings against the Warriors (one against an injured Steph, and another with a very defensively skewed lineup due to injuries, with the Warriors also always skewing more defensively themselves lineup-wise late in the playoffs) doesn’t somehow obviate the fact that LeBron showed he wasn’t a good defensive anchor by clearly not being a good one when it mattered in his entire defensive peak. But that’s okay! He’s not actually a defensive anchor! He’s just a great wing defender, and players like that just don’t “anchor” defenses. So the information presented here shouldn’t be a surprise or controversial at all, and it only is here on the PC board where there are people dedicated to telling us the sky is green and writing an overwhelming amount of insistent claptrap about it that largely goes unchallenged because no one has the time or inclination to keep responding to a never-ending cascade of long-form filibustering essays.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
lessthanjake wrote:Djoker wrote:OhayoKD wrote:No way you just used a 189 minute sample after complaining about sample size on a 2807 minute one...
I said in my two previous posts that ON-OFF in small samples is meaningless. I just posted it to show that even (useless) lineup data doesn't help your argument.
Anyways this thread shows that Lebron teams consistently perform poorly on the defensive end in the final stages of the playoffs. From 2009-2014 which was his defensive prime, Lebron teams underperformed defensively in 8/9 ECF and Final series (plus the 2nd round loss in 2010). Then 2017 and 2018 Finals were also horrifyingly bad. And from the ten underperforming ECF and Finals series from 2009-2018, in a whopping eight of them, Lebron's teams were the worst performing defense against their opponent in that postseason. Only against the 2011 Mavs and 2012 Thunder can we give a little bit of leeway as those teams torched a few other teams even worse. But then again the 2011 Heat and 2012 Heat were 3rd and 4th in the league defensively so they are supposed to do much better than merely league average.
That leaves 2015 and 2016 but even those years aren't the perfect victory lap that they appear to be.
In 2015 because of injuries for Kyrie and Love, the Cavs played a super defensively-minded lineup in the finals with Dellavedova/Shumpert/Lebron/Thompson/Mozgov. When you put four really good defenders around your star you better have a good defensive team! It's also clear from the plethora of evidence that's been posted that Mozgov, not Lebron, was the Cavs' most impactful defender by some distance in 2015 and especially so in the playoffs. The Pelicans were -2.8 rDRtg, Grizzlies -4.6 rDRtg, Rockets -0.9 rDRtg and the Cavs -4.3 rDRtg against the Warriors in the playoffs. This shows that Golden State generally struggled offensively in the playoffs.
2016 is a different story in terms of the team situation. The Cavs played a super good offensive lineup with Kyrie and Love and still held up defensively late in the playoffs. Lebron was also undoubtedly great on defense in the postseason including the finals. However the Warriors team they faced only had Curry play only one more series which was the WCF against the Thunder and in that series the Thunder had a better -6.6 rDRtg against the Warriors than the Cavs did with -6.0 rDRtg. Again this suggests that the Warriors were nowhere nearly as good offensively as they were in the regular season. One has to wonder how that series would have gone if Curry hadn't gotten hurt just like Lebron fans can rightfully wonder how the 2015 series would have gone with Kyrie and Love playing.
A few post-defensive-peak series against a handful of mediocre Eastern Conference teams and then a couple good defensive showings against the Warriors (one against an injured Steph, and another with a very defensively skewed lineup due to injuries, with the Warriors also always skewing more defensively themselves lineup-wise late in the playoffs)
Which is why cleveland's defensive rating goes down if you use rolling performance....wait, it goes up?
When you are so obviously correct you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones, refuse to offer a definition for a term while saying other people are wrong for using a conventional standard, and need to fabricate what people have actually said, so you can filter out data for no reason beyond a baseless prior.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               lessthanjake
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
OhayoKD wrote:lessthanjake wrote:Djoker wrote:
I said in my two previous posts that ON-OFF in small samples is meaningless. I just posted it to show that even (useless) lineup data doesn't help your argument.
Anyways this thread shows that Lebron teams consistently perform poorly on the defensive end in the final stages of the playoffs. From 2009-2014 which was his defensive prime, Lebron teams underperformed defensively in 8/9 ECF and Final series (plus the 2nd round loss in 2010). Then 2017 and 2018 Finals were also horrifyingly bad. And from the ten underperforming ECF and Finals series from 2009-2018, in a whopping eight of them, Lebron's teams were the worst performing defense against their opponent in that postseason. Only against the 2011 Mavs and 2012 Thunder can we give a little bit of leeway as those teams torched a few other teams even worse. But then again the 2011 Heat and 2012 Heat were 3rd and 4th in the league defensively so they are supposed to do much better than merely league average.
That leaves 2015 and 2016 but even those years aren't the perfect victory lap that they appear to be.
In 2015 because of injuries for Kyrie and Love, the Cavs played a super defensively-minded lineup in the finals with Dellavedova/Shumpert/Lebron/Thompson/Mozgov. When you put four really good defenders around your star you better have a good defensive team! It's also clear from the plethora of evidence that's been posted that Mozgov, not Lebron, was the Cavs' most impactful defender by some distance in 2015 and especially so in the playoffs. The Pelicans were -2.8 rDRtg, Grizzlies -4.6 rDRtg, Rockets -0.9 rDRtg and the Cavs -4.3 rDRtg against the Warriors in the playoffs. This shows that Golden State generally struggled offensively in the playoffs.
2016 is a different story in terms of the team situation. The Cavs played a super good offensive lineup with Kyrie and Love and still held up defensively late in the playoffs. Lebron was also undoubtedly great on defense in the postseason including the finals. However the Warriors team they faced only had Curry play only one more series which was the WCF against the Thunder and in that series the Thunder had a better -6.6 rDRtg against the Warriors than the Cavs did with -6.0 rDRtg. Again this suggests that the Warriors were nowhere nearly as good offensively as they were in the regular season. One has to wonder how that series would have gone if Curry hadn't gotten hurt just like Lebron fans can rightfully wonder how the 2015 series would have gone with Kyrie and Love playing.
A few post-defensive-peak series against a handful of mediocre Eastern Conference teams and then a couple good defensive showings against the Warriors (one against an injured Steph, and another with a very defensively skewed lineup due to injuries, with the Warriors also always skewing more defensively themselves lineup-wise late in the playoffs)
Which is why cleveland's defensive rating goes down if you use rolling performance....wait, it goes up?
When you are so obviously correct you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones, refuse to offer a definition for a term while saying other people are wrong for using a conventional standard, and need to fabricate what people have actually said, so you can filter out data for no reason beyond a baseless prior.
Huh? I haven’t talked to you about any minutes of any samples. Are you under the impression that those you argue with constitute a hive mind, such that you can converse with one as if that person is another person entirely?
And why should we care about “rolling performance”? If I read your point correctly, all that tells us is that despite the injuries making their lineup more defensively skewed later in the 2015 playoffs, their defense held up better against…bad playoff teams. Like, surprise! That’s how the NBA playoffs often work. Mediocre opponents in early rounds don’t have another gear. And is that even factually true anyways? Their rDRTG in 2015 was actually better in the last two rounds than in the first two rounds. Seems like you’re just appealing to whatever random thing will allow you to squint and make the point your agenda dictates that you need to make.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
lessthanjake wrote:OhayoKD wrote:lessthanjake wrote:A few post-defensive-peak series against a handful of mediocre Eastern Conference teams and then a couple good defensive showings against the Warriors (one against an injured Steph, and another with a very defensively skewed lineup due to injuries, with the Warriors also always skewing more defensively themselves lineup-wise late in the playoffs)
Which is why cleveland's defensive rating goes down if you use rolling performance....wait, it goes up?
When you are so obviously correct you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones, refuse to offer a definition for a term while saying other people are wrong for using a conventional standard, and need to fabricate what people have actually said, so you can filter out data for no reason beyond a baseless prior.
Huh? I haven’t talked to you about any minutes of any samples. Are you under the impression that those you argue with constitute a hive mind, such that you can converse with one as if that person is another person entirely?
The very first line in the post you said was "all obviously correct" is complaining about small samples being meaningless after pretending larger ones did not exist and were not provided.
Who are you trying to fool right now?
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               lessthanjake
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
OhayoKD wrote:lessthanjake wrote:OhayoKD wrote:Which is why cleveland's defensive rating goes down if you use rolling performance....wait, it goes up?
When you are so obviously correct you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones, refuse to offer a definition for a term while saying other people are wrong for using a conventional standard, and need to fabricate what people have actually said, so you can filter out data for no reason beyond a baseless prior.
Huh? I haven’t talked to you about any minutes of any samples. Are you under the impression that those you argue with constitute a hive mind, such that you can converse with one as if that person is another person entirely?
The very first line in the post you said was "all obviously correct" is complaining about small samples being meaningless after pretending larger ones did not exist and were not provided.
Who are you trying to fool right now?
Lol, you just wrote a post to me saying “you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones,” when I never did anything of the sort. Just because I said someone’s post was correct doesn’t mean I literally made that post or earlier posts in a chain that that other person actually made. You can argue with Djoker about whatever it is you’re talking about there. As far as I can tell, Djoker has definitely had absolutely zero problem handling your arguments here (it’s honestly been a shockingly one-sided exchange in terms of making remotely persuasive points), so I have no doubt that Djoker would be able to respond adequately to whatever accusations you’re making here. The thing is that I’m just not Djoker, so I’m not going to respond to attacks made as if I am, nor does me saying a post Djoker made is correct obligate me to engage with you under the pretense that I am Djoker.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               OhayoKD
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
lessthanjake wrote:OhayoKD wrote:lessthanjake wrote:
Huh? I haven’t talked to you about any minutes of any samples. Are you under the impression that those you argue with constitute a hive mind, such that you can converse with one as if that person is another person entirely?
The very first line in the post you said was "all obviously correct" is complaining about small samples being meaningless after pretending larger ones did not exist and were not provided.
Who are you trying to fool right now?
Lol, you just wrote a post saying “you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones,” when I never did anything of the sort. Just because I said someone’s post was correct doesn’t mean I literally made earlier posts in a chain that that other person actually made. You can argue with Djoker about whatever it is you’re talking about there.
Uh no. When you decide to call everything a poster says "obviously correct" and repeatedly take shots at what another group of posters have been arguing("the sky is green!"), then you are absolutely obligated to keep track of the conversation. The fact you don't, and make these sorts of claims does indeed suggest a "hivemind" even though you've tried rather hard to pin that on others.
How about instead of wasting everyone's time, you offer a specific standard for what a "defensive anchor" ought to do since the conventional one most people here are using is apparently is calling the sky green. Or is this just you derailing yet another thread after the substance of the discussion did not go the way you wanted it too?
Was 21-23 brook lopez a defensive anchor? By that bar, Lebron likely(assuming you care about evidence) qualifies.
The burden is yours to be specific since you've decided to complain about everyone(per usual) who uses a term in a way which it is commonly used because it makes a guy look good.
Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
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               lessthanjake
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Re: Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?
OhayoKD wrote:lessthanjake wrote:OhayoKD wrote:The very first line in the post you said was "all obviously correct" is complaining about small samples being meaningless after pretending larger ones did not exist and were not provided.
Who are you trying to fool right now?
Lol, you just wrote a post saying “you toss 189 minute samples vs 2000 minute ones,” when I never did anything of the sort. Just because I said someone’s post was correct doesn’t mean I literally made earlier posts in a chain that that other person actually made. You can argue with Djoker about whatever it is you’re talking about there.
Uh no. When you decide to call everything a poster says "obviously correct" and repeatedly take shots at what another group of posters have been arguing("the sky is green!"), then you are absolutely obligated to keep track of the conversation. The fact you don't, and make these sorts of claims does indeed suggest a "hivemind" even though you've tried rather hard to pin that on others.
How about instead of wasting everyone's time, you offer a specific standard for what a "defensive anchor" ought to do since the conventional one most people here are using is apparently is calling the sky green. Or is this just you derailing yet another thread after the substance of the discussion did not go the way you wanted it too?
Was 21-23 brook lopez a defensive anchor? By that bar, Lebron likely(assuming you care about evidence) qualifies.
The burden is yours to be specific since you've decided to complain about everyone(per usual) who uses a term in a way which it is commonly used because it makes a guy look good.
Lol, okay no, I’m definitely not “absolutely obligated” to respond to attacks on other posters that are addressed to me as if I am that other person. To suggest I am is fundamentally bizarre.
As for a definition of “defensive anchor,” how about the definition a poster here once very succinctly gave to this very question: “A big that substantially improves your team defense, primarily through help defense.” (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=29190143#p29190143). I think that well encapsulates what most people would consider the term to mean. LeBron is not a “defensive anchor.” He’s a different type of player, and consequently he doesn’t have the type of defensive impact of a great defensive anchor (which the information provided in this thread is strong evidence of).
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.







