RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Nikola Jokic)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#21 » by 70sFan » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:49 pm

AEnigma wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Dwyane Wade
NOMINATE: Patrick Ewing
AltNom: Scottie Pippen


People have touched on how Barkley “should not” be too far separated from Karl Malone. People have touched on how Jokic “should not” be too far separation from Giannis. I have been somewhat silent on this because I think it is a dead horse topic, but for me, the “should not” separation most in play is Ewing and Robinson. I see Ewing as functionally quite similar to Robinson for career postseason value. Robinson had the higher regular season peak, was more “portable”, and played on a team that relied on him more, all of which have made him beloved in these circles, but in significant games against good opponents, I never felt Robinson did much to distinguish himself from Ewing in anything other than as a passer / team playmaker (which is important but at Robinson’s level was overstated by circumstance)....

I'd say the biggest differentiation between Robinson and Ewing isn't offensive at all, but defensive. Robinson, along with Hakeem (and Russell from the clips I've seen) was not only one of the great shotblockers, but very good at disrupting passes into the post. Ewing had quick hands and feet for a big but not quite as quick or as much anticipation.

Agree Robinson was a superior athlete… and maybe in the sense of “anticipation” had superior reflexes, but I could in a different direction say I preferred Ewing’s anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be.

I recall someone criticising Dwight Howard’s defensive intelligence last thread (or recently). I disagree with that pretty strongly, but Howard did a lot of the same things in that he was reactionary and relied on his physical advantages in ways that maybe were not optimal but were physically impressive. I see Robinson in much the same way, with Ewing being more of a Duncan figure. More limited, but also more controlled and careful. Again, I have never been overly impressed by Robinson’s playoff results when he did not have Duncan. That is not necessarily just because of Duncan; Robinson himself changed his approach as he aged in ways not wholly tied to also playing alongside another top tier defender. Ewing arrived at that point a lot earlier. Less flashy, but supremely effective. I would not confuse having all the tools for being a more effective defender with actually being more effective over a series.

Where this becomes messier is with hypotheticals and the effect of coaching. Ewing was most effective as a defender under Pat Riley, even though his athletic peak was earlier and I think he would have been outstanding had he connected with Riley then. Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Brown and Greg Popovich, but at his “peak” under a less defensive-minded coach, not so much.

I understand why Robinson is given the benefit of the doubt as someone who was more physically impressive and who we saw achieve high defensive success at different points in his career. But he did not have a defensive mind like Russell. He also did not have a mind like Draymond or Garnett. Nor would I say he had one like Hakeem, or Duncan (admittedly Duncan is deeply tied to Popovich). There are several others I likely trust over him too, although they are not yet relevant. He was an outstanding athlete, but there too, I would not say he utilised his athleticism as well as Russell or Hakeem, or in a more positional sense, Garnett. He had the tools to be a much better defender than Duncan (and to some extent we saw glipses of that when he became more of a specialist), but in the postseason I do not think he reached that level with any real consistency.

Ewing is a step down from all those names, but not by enough to be out of the discussion. He had some uninspiring results before Pat Riley, so maybe we can attribute the bulk of the change to Riley… but all the same, that change happened, and it constitutes the majority of Ewing’s career. Again, Robinson had more tools, but if he did not consistently make the best use of them, why would I excuse that or make him out to be something he generally was not. I cannot do the exercise I did with Hakeem and Robinson where I point out how much better Hakeem fared against common opponents (most notably the Jazz, but to a degree also the Suns and Blazers), both because of sample size (one series against Hakeem is the only commonality, with Drexler automatically providing a significant distinction) and because Ewing more demonstrably had better defensive support. I am accordingly not going to commit to Ewing having an absolute advantage; however, I am more adamant that the two are a lot closer than people tend to assume based on their visceral reactions to Robinson’s physicality. Ewing was smart and controlled. He played well against a lot of excellent offences, including strong pnr offences (albeit perhaps not quite to the extent of the Jazz). If we are going to praise Robinson’s highlights, we should also be able to acknowledge their limitations. We do it with Duncan and Howard; we should be able to do it for Ewing and Robinson as well.

I really like this short breakdown of Robinson vs Ewing on defense and I agree with basically everything. I don't think Ewing gets enough credit for how smart and error-free defender he was during his prime. I also love Duncan comparison for him, as I see a lot of similarities between these two players on defense both in terms of style and physical profile (as well as coaching factor).

I may try to do some film breakdown for Ewing later, though I don't have a lot of time recently (working on editing games for other centers videos right now).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#22 » by HeartBreakKid » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:15 pm

70sFan wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I'd say the biggest differentiation between Robinson and Ewing isn't offensive at all, but defensive. Robinson, along with Hakeem (and Russell from the clips I've seen) was not only one of the great shotblockers, but very good at disrupting passes into the post. Ewing had quick hands and feet for a big but not quite as quick or as much anticipation.

Agree Robinson was a superior athlete… and maybe in the sense of “anticipation” had superior reflexes, but I could in a different direction say I preferred Ewing’s anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be.

I recall someone criticising Dwight Howard’s defensive intelligence last thread (or recently). I disagree with that pretty strongly, but Howard did a lot of the same things in that he was reactionary and relied on his physical advantages in ways that maybe were not optimal but were physically impressive. I see Robinson in much the same way, with Ewing being more of a Duncan figure. More limited, but also more controlled and careful. Again, I have never been overly impressed by Robinson’s playoff results when he did not have Duncan. That is not necessarily just because of Duncan; Robinson himself changed his approach as he aged in ways not wholly tied to also playing alongside another top tier defender. Ewing arrived at that point a lot earlier. Less flashy, but supremely effective. I would not confuse having all the tools for being a more effective defender with actually being more effective over a series.

Where this becomes messier is with hypotheticals and the effect of coaching. Ewing was most effective as a defender under Pat Riley, even though his athletic peak was earlier and I think he would have been outstanding had he connected with Riley then. Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Brown and Greg Popovich, but at his “peak” under a less defensive-minded coach, not so much.

I understand why Robinson is given the benefit of the doubt as someone who was more physically impressive and who we saw achieve high defensive success at different points in his career. But he did not have a defensive mind like Russell. He also did not have a mind like Draymond or Garnett. Nor would I say he had one like Hakeem, or Duncan (admittedly Duncan is deeply tied to Popovich). There are several others I likely trust over him too, although they are not yet relevant. He was an outstanding athlete, but there too, I would not say he utilised his athleticism as well as Russell or Hakeem, or in a more positional sense, Garnett. He had the tools to be a much better defender than Duncan (and to some extent we saw glipses of that when he became more of a specialist), but in the postseason I do not think he reached that level with any real consistency.

Ewing is a step down from all those names, but not by enough to be out of the discussion. He had some uninspiring results before Pat Riley, so maybe we can attribute the bulk of the change to Riley… but all the same, that change happened, and it constitutes the majority of Ewing’s career. Again, Robinson had more tools, but if he did not consistently make the best use of them, why would I excuse that or make him out to be something he generally was not. I cannot do the exercise I did with Hakeem and Robinson where I point out how much better Hakeem fared against common opponents (most notably the Jazz, but to a degree also the Suns and Blazers), both because of sample size (one series against Hakeem is the only commonality, with Drexler automatically providing a significant distinction) and because Ewing more demonstrably had better defensive support. I am accordingly not going to commit to Ewing having an absolute advantage; however, I am more adamant that the two are a lot closer than people tend to assume based on their visceral reactions to Robinson’s physicality. Ewing was smart and controlled. He played well against a lot of excellent offences, including strong pnr offences (albeit perhaps not quite to the extent of the Jazz). If we are going to praise Robinson’s highlights, we should also be able to acknowledge their limitations. We do it with Duncan and Howard; we should be able to do it for Ewing and Robinson as well.

I really like this short breakdown of Robinson vs Ewing on defense and I agree with basically everything. I don't think Ewing gets enough credit for how smart and error-free defender he was during his prime. I also love Duncan comparison for him, as I see a lot of similarities between these two players on defense both in terms of style and physical profile (as well as coaching factor).

I may try to do some film breakdown for Ewing later, though I don't have a lot of time recently (working on editing games for other centers videos right now).


How do you feel about Ewing vs Frazier (vs Reed)?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#23 » by 70sFan » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:25 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
70sFan wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Agree Robinson was a superior athlete… and maybe in the sense of “anticipation” had superior reflexes, but I could in a different direction say I preferred Ewing’s anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be.

I recall someone criticising Dwight Howard’s defensive intelligence last thread (or recently). I disagree with that pretty strongly, but Howard did a lot of the same things in that he was reactionary and relied on his physical advantages in ways that maybe were not optimal but were physically impressive. I see Robinson in much the same way, with Ewing being more of a Duncan figure. More limited, but also more controlled and careful. Again, I have never been overly impressed by Robinson’s playoff results when he did not have Duncan. That is not necessarily just because of Duncan; Robinson himself changed his approach as he aged in ways not wholly tied to also playing alongside another top tier defender. Ewing arrived at that point a lot earlier. Less flashy, but supremely effective. I would not confuse having all the tools for being a more effective defender with actually being more effective over a series.

Where this becomes messier is with hypotheticals and the effect of coaching. Ewing was most effective as a defender under Pat Riley, even though his athletic peak was earlier and I think he would have been outstanding had he connected with Riley then. Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Brown and Greg Popovich, but at his “peak” under a less defensive-minded coach, not so much.

I understand why Robinson is given the benefit of the doubt as someone who was more physically impressive and who we saw achieve high defensive success at different points in his career. But he did not have a defensive mind like Russell. He also did not have a mind like Draymond or Garnett. Nor would I say he had one like Hakeem, or Duncan (admittedly Duncan is deeply tied to Popovich). There are several others I likely trust over him too, although they are not yet relevant. He was an outstanding athlete, but there too, I would not say he utilised his athleticism as well as Russell or Hakeem, or in a more positional sense, Garnett. He had the tools to be a much better defender than Duncan (and to some extent we saw glipses of that when he became more of a specialist), but in the postseason I do not think he reached that level with any real consistency.

Ewing is a step down from all those names, but not by enough to be out of the discussion. He had some uninspiring results before Pat Riley, so maybe we can attribute the bulk of the change to Riley… but all the same, that change happened, and it constitutes the majority of Ewing’s career. Again, Robinson had more tools, but if he did not consistently make the best use of them, why would I excuse that or make him out to be something he generally was not. I cannot do the exercise I did with Hakeem and Robinson where I point out how much better Hakeem fared against common opponents (most notably the Jazz, but to a degree also the Suns and Blazers), both because of sample size (one series against Hakeem is the only commonality, with Drexler automatically providing a significant distinction) and because Ewing more demonstrably had better defensive support. I am accordingly not going to commit to Ewing having an absolute advantage; however, I am more adamant that the two are a lot closer than people tend to assume based on their visceral reactions to Robinson’s physicality. Ewing was smart and controlled. He played well against a lot of excellent offences, including strong pnr offences (albeit perhaps not quite to the extent of the Jazz). If we are going to praise Robinson’s highlights, we should also be able to acknowledge their limitations. We do it with Duncan and Howard; we should be able to do it for Ewing and Robinson as well.

I really like this short breakdown of Robinson vs Ewing on defense and I agree with basically everything. I don't think Ewing gets enough credit for how smart and error-free defender he was during his prime. I also love Duncan comparison for him, as I see a lot of similarities between these two players on defense both in terms of style and physical profile (as well as coaching factor).

I may try to do some film breakdown for Ewing later, though I don't have a lot of time recently (working on editing games for other centers videos right now).


How do you feel about Ewing vs Frazier (vs Reed)?

I have him clearly first due to longevity (especially in Reed's case, because his prime was extremely short). For peaks, I think they are quite close to each other.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#24 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:44 pm

70sFan wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:How do you feel about Ewing vs Frazier (vs Reed)?

I have him clearly first due to longevity (especially in Reed's case, because his prime was extremely short). For peaks, I think they are quite close to each other.


I can definitely see the case for Ewing over Frazier based on longevity.

Something I will point out:

Frazier in 93 games actually has more playoff Win Shares than Ewing in 139. So Ewing played about 50% more, but Frazier still has him beat on this front. Remember too, this is Frazier playing in eras where you played less playoff games. The Knicks played only 3 series, for example, in their 2 championship years.

I think it's fine to point out that supporting cast matters in this, but I think that's more compelling as an argument for Ewing maybe having a higher peak/prime, than it is for a longevity based argument, and I'd personally side with Frazier on peak/prime.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#25 » by 70sFan » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:51 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:How do you feel about Ewing vs Frazier (vs Reed)?

I have him clearly first due to longevity (especially in Reed's case, because his prime was extremely short). For peaks, I think they are quite close to each other.


I can definitely see the case for Ewing over Frazier based on longevity.

Something I will point out:

Frazier in 93 games actually has more playoff Win Shares than Ewing in 139. So Ewing played about 50% more, but Frazier still has him beat on this front. Remember too, this is Frazier playing in eras where you played less playoff games. The Knicks played only 3 series, for example, in their 2 championship years.

I think it's fine to point out that supporting cast matters in this, but I think that's more compelling as an argument for Ewing maybe having a higher peak/prime, than it is for a longevity based argument, and I'd personally side with Frazier on peak/prime.

I mean, supporting cast does matter in this. Frazier literally played with Reed, while the best teammate Ewing had in his prime was who - Oakley or Rivers? These two weren't even on DeBusschere level.

Ewing definitely had a better longevity than Frazier. Judging longevity by postseason sample is very flawed, otherwise players like Garnett should be treated as guys with very mediocre longevity for top 20 players.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#26 » by One_and_Done » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:59 pm

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Re: Bob Pettit's defense. In my reading on his era, I haven't heard anyone either praising his defense or denigrating it. The adjectives they use to describe him imply a very high motor and effort guy generally ("relentless, driven" but on the other side you have him saying he was getting beat up inside in his first couple of years and described as a "consummate gentleman."

I generally assume he is a solid man defender and outstanding rebounder with good fundamentals but not a rim protector or enforcer type.

I'm sure he was relentless by the standard of a 1960s player. Looking at footage of him I doubt he'd be playable against elite offenses today.

What exactly makes you doubt?

Doesn't look like an outlier. Too unathletic. No special skills that would set him apart today. Poor efficiency. His player type of big, doesn't shoot 3s, but is lanky and slower, basically doesn't exist in today's game. Also overrated even relative to his own time. Was never the best player over a player who would matter today, won a title the year Russell got hurt, and actually only led the Hawks to an average of 44 wins during his career. A bunch of sub-500 seasons and playoff misses. His 8 team league would lose to today's Euroleague teams.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#27 » by trex_8063 » Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:39 pm

AEnigma wrote:Agree Robinson was a superior athlete… and maybe in the sense of “anticipation” had superior reflexes, but I could in a different direction say I preferred Ewing’s anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be.

I recall someone criticising Dwight Howard’s defensive intelligence last thread (or recently). I disagree with that pretty strongly, but Howard did a lot of the same things in that he was reactionary and relied on his physical advantages in ways that maybe were not optimal but were physically impressive. I see Robinson in much the same way, with Ewing being more of a Duncan figure. More limited, but also more controlled and careful. Again, I have never been overly impressed by Robinson’s playoff results when he did not have Duncan. That is not necessarily just because of Duncan; Robinson himself changed his approach as he aged in ways not wholly tied to also playing alongside another top tier defender. Ewing arrived at that point a lot earlier. Less flashy, but supremely effective. I would not confuse having all the tools for being a more effective defender with actually being more effective over a series.

Where this becomes messier is with hypotheticals and the effect of coaching. Ewing was most effective as a defender under Pat Riley, even though his athletic peak was earlier and I think he would have been outstanding had he connected with Riley then. Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Brown and Greg Popovich, but at his “peak” under a less defensive-minded coach, not so much.

I understand why Robinson is given the benefit of the doubt as someone who was more physically impressive and who we saw achieve high defensive success at different points in his career. But he did not have a defensive mind like Russell. He also did not have a mind like Draymond or Garnett. Nor would I say he had one like Hakeem, or Duncan (admittedly Duncan is deeply tied to Popovich). There are several others I likely trust over him too, although they are not yet relevant. He was an outstanding athlete, but there too, I would not say he utilised his athleticism as well as Russell or Hakeem, or in a more positional sense, Garnett. He had the tools to be a much better defender than Duncan (and to some extent we saw glipses of that when he became more of a specialist), but in the postseason I do not think he reached that level with any real consistency.

Ewing is a step down from all those names, but not by enough to be out of the discussion. He had some uninspiring results before Pat Riley, so maybe we can attribute the bulk of the change to Riley… but all the same, that change happened, and it constitutes the majority of Ewing’s career. Again, Robinson had more tools, but if he did not consistently make the best use of them, why would I excuse that or make him out to be something he generally was not. I cannot do the exercise I did with Hakeem and Robinson where I point out how much better Hakeem fared against common opponents (most notably the Jazz, but to a degree also the Suns and Blazers), both because of sample size (one series against Hakeem is the only commonality, with Drexler automatically providing a significant distinction) and because Ewing more demonstrably had better defensive support. I am accordingly not going to commit to Ewing having an absolute advantage; however, I am more adamant that the two are a lot closer than people tend to assume based on their visceral reactions to Robinson’s physicality. Ewing was smart and controlled. He played well against a lot of excellent offences, including strong pnr offences (albeit perhaps not quite to the extent of the Jazz). If we are going to praise Robinson’s highlights, we should also be able to acknowledge their limitations. We do it with Duncan and Howard; we should be able to do it for Ewing and Robinson as well.



While I don't agree with everything said above, I'm on-board with the broad message: the defensive gap between Ewing and some of his contemporaries (namely Hakeem and Robinson) is not as large as many seem to believe.

I think people look at the box [block] numbers and say, "well, Hakeem and DRob are blocking almost twice as many shots; so Ewing must not be close".
But imo he's the BEST pnr defender of the three, and probably the best in terms of positioning. I won't necessarily say he was the true "best" in terms of rotational defense, but only because he was not as physically quick in making a decided movement as the other two. However, I agree [and like the wording] in the statement "I prefer Ewing's anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be."
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#28 » by One_and_Done » Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:51 pm

Knowing is well and good in the 90s. In today's game you can know what you're supposed to do, but it's irrelevant if you can't physically do it. Kevin Love is a good example. Ewing's knee problems would have significantly hampered him moving to the degree needed in today's game.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#29 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 16, 2023 10:54 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:I have him clearly first due to longevity (especially in Reed's case, because his prime was extremely short). For peaks, I think they are quite close to each other.


I can definitely see the case for Ewing over Frazier based on longevity.

Something I will point out:

Frazier in 93 games actually has more playoff Win Shares than Ewing in 139. So Ewing played about 50% more, but Frazier still has him beat on this front. Remember too, this is Frazier playing in eras where you played less playoff games. The Knicks played only 3 series, for example, in their 2 championship years.

I think it's fine to point out that supporting cast matters in this, but I think that's more compelling as an argument for Ewing maybe having a higher peak/prime, than it is for a longevity based argument, and I'd personally side with Frazier on peak/prime.

I mean, supporting cast does matter in this. Frazier literally played with Reed, while the best teammate Ewing had in his prime was who - Oakley or Rivers? These two weren't even on DeBusschere level.

Ewing definitely had a better longevity than Frazier. Judging longevity by postseason sample is very flawed, otherwise players like Garnett should be treated as guys with very mediocre longevity for top 20 players.


Not sure how closely you read my post.

I didn't say supporting cast didn't matter, though I did question it's relevance when specifically talking about longevity.

I wasn't arguing against the guy with less games played. I was pointing out that despite Ewing's longevity advantage here, Frazier still has a better cume by this stat, while also noting that Ewing's longevity advantage by playoff games played overstates things due to there being less playoff series back in Frazier's time.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#30 » by One_and_Done » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:04 am

I may yet flip on Barkley vs Harden. It's very close between the 2. Will have to see how the arguments develop.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#31 » by iggymcfrack » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:30 am

Vote: Nikola Jokic

-Three of the top 15 seasons of all-time by PER (Harden peaks at #25, Wade peaks at #27, Barkley peaks at #54)

-Three of the top 5 seasons of all-time by BPM which is more accurate (Harden peaks at #18, Wade peaks at #24, Barkley peaks at #46)

-Provides much more impact than box numbers can capture and consistently rates much better in impact metrics than in box metrics (Harden, the closest by box numbers consistently ranks worse in impact stats)

-Raises his game in the playoffs to the point that he's led the league in at least one major box composite in 3 of his 5 postseasons and led his team to one of the most dominant rings of all-time his first postseason with healthy teammates after reaching peak level

I mean, if you're looking at ring equity, do you really think anyone left on this list gives you more than a guy playing at all-time supernova level for 3 years, all-NBA level for another 4, and solid star level (still top 10 by some metrics) in the 8th season? Wade has no advantage in meaningful longevity. His 9th best season by VORP, his team went 10-41 with him on the floor in an 82 game season. Barkley and Harden both failed to convert their long careers into even a single ring. And Pettit still wasn't as dominant as Jokic in a league that had 15 black players total with only a slightly longer career. Giannis has gone in, now this has to be time for the Joker.


Nominate: John Stockton

Hard for me to say how you don't take at least one of these 2 players. Jokic is top 3 all-time for peak and Stockton is probably top 3 all-time for longevity. 26 year RAPM ranks him as a top 5 player of the data ball era in his age 34-40 seasons only. He ranks 3rd all-time in VORP and in weighted WAR (weighting peak years higher) behind only Jordan and LeBron. I have him #15 all-time and I still wonder sometimes if that's too low. Absolutely tremendous defender who has 581 more steals than anyone in history despite gambling very little and rarely getting caught out of place. Ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 13th, and 18th all-time for most assists in a season. That's literally half of the top 18 seasons. He often gets undervalued because he wasn't an elite scorer, but he's so amazing at everything else that he more than makes up for it.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#32 » by tsherkin » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:32 am

Doctor MJ wrote:I wasn't arguing against the guy with less games played. I was pointing out that despite Ewing's longevity advantage here, Frazier still has a better cume by this stat, while also noting that Ewing's longevity advantage by playoff games played overstates things due to there being less playoff series back in Frazier's time.


Yeah but at the end of the day, supporting cast = wins, and Win Shares are derived from total wins, no? One win = 3 win shares, and all that. So the more you win, the more win shares there are to divvy up among participants. Crappier casts, crappier win share results.

AEnigma wrote:
FrogBros4Life wrote:
FWIW, Rodman was 1st team All D in 95 and 2nd team All D in 94 (also for the Spurs).


My immediate response here is, "and?" Rodman was a bag of smashed a-holes on the Spurs.

penbeast0 wrote:Nomination: Stockton: Similar to Steve Nash, better in set plays


Based on what?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#33 » by One_and_Done » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:35 am

Spoiler:
iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Nikola Jokic

-Three of the top 15 seasons of all-time by PER (Harden peaks at #25, Wade peaks at #27, Barkley peaks at #54)

-Three of the top 5 seasons of all-time by BPM which is more accurate (Harden peaks at #18, Wade peaks at #24, Barkley peaks at #46)

-Provides much more impact than box numbers can capture and consistently rates much better in impact metrics than in box metrics (Harden, the closest by box numbers consistently ranks worse in impact stats)

-Raises his game in the playoffs to the point that he's led the league in at least one major box composite in 3 of his 5 postseasons and led his team to one of the most dominant rings of all-time his first postseason with healthy teammates after reaching peak level

I mean, if you're looking at ring equity, do you really think anyone left on this list gives you more than a guy playing at all-time supernova level for 3 years, all-NBA level for another 4, and solid star level (still top 10 by some metrics) in the 8th season? Wade has no advantage in meaningful longevity. His 9th best season by VORP, his team went 10-41 with him on the floor in an 82 game season. Barkley and Harden both failed to convert their long careers into even a single ring. And Pettit still wasn't as dominant as Jokic in a league that had 15 black players total with only a slightly longer career. Giannis has gone in, now this has to be time for the Joker.


Nominate: John Stockton

Hard for me to say how you don't take at least one of these 2 players. Jokic is top 3 all-time for peak and Stockton is probably top 3 all-time for longevity. 26 year RAPM ranks him as a top 5 player of the data ball era in his age 34-40 seasons only. He ranks 3rd all-time in VORP and in weighted WAR (weighting peak years higher) behind only Jordan and LeBron. I have him #15 all-time and I still wonder sometimes if that's too low. Absolutely tremendous defender who has 581 more steals than anyone in history despite gambling very little and rarely getting caught out of place. Ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 13th, and 18th all-time for most assists in a season. That's literally half of the top 18 seasons. He often gets undervalued because he wasn't an elite scorer, but he's so amazing at everything else that he more than makes up for it.

You don't feel Harden strong enough to preference him? Because it's not totally implausible Harden is in contention here.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#34 » by Samurai » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:36 am

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Re: Bob Pettit's defense. In my reading on his era, I haven't heard anyone either praising his defense or denigrating it. The adjectives they use to describe him imply a very high motor and effort guy generally ("relentless, driven" but on the other side you have him saying he was getting beat up inside in his first couple of years and described as a "consummate gentleman."

I generally assume he is a solid man defender and outstanding rebounder with good fundamentals but not a rim protector or enforcer type.

I'm sure he was relentless by the standard of a 1960s player. Looking at footage of him I doubt he'd be playable against elite offenses today.

What exactly makes you doubt?

For me it would be due to him turning 91 in a couple of months. I think his lateral speed on the perimeter loses a clear step once you hit 80.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#35 » by tsherkin » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:38 am

One_and_Done wrote:Doesn't look like an outlier. Too unathletic. No special skills that would set him apart today. Poor efficiency. His player type of big, doesn't shoot 3s, but is lanky and slower, basically doesn't exist in today's game. Also overrated even relative to his own time. Was never the best player over a player who would matter today, won a title the year Russell got hurt, and actually only led the Hawks to an average of 44 wins during his career. A bunch of sub-500 seasons and playoff misses. His 8 team league would lose to today's Euroleague teams.


Didn't he ask you about his ability to be a defender, not an offensive player?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#36 » by One_and_Done » Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:39 am

Samurai wrote:For me it would be due to him turning 91 in a couple of months. I think his lateral speed on the perimeter loses a clear step once you hit 80.


We've been over this. You can only see how KG would perform in a better situation with a time machine too. We don't need a time machine to use our imaginations, or else writers would be out of a job. No need for 90% of history either. Why ask how the war would have unfolded without Hitler? It never happened. You'd need a time machine to be sure.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#37 » by Samurai » Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:09 am

Vote for #26: Bob Pettit. To state this upfront: I do not care about science fiction time machines whisking Pettit to 1923, 2023 or 2123. In fact, the sci-fi crowd still hasn't convinced me at all that such a time machine even exists. His era was also the weakest of the candidates currently eligible, which is why I am considering him now rather than earlier spots. He was a 2-time MVP and 10-time All NBA First Team and Second Team once. I will also concede that I never saw him play live. But his adaptability is extremely impressive to me. His first season was 1955 and Neil Johnston was the big star then (a broken-down Mikan came out of retirement to play 37 games in 56). But by 1964, Pettit's second to last season, he was competing against the likes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, Baylor, Lucas and Havlicek. The league strength was much higher in 1964 than 1955 and yet Pettit was still All NBA First Team in 64. He was the bridge from the Mikan era to the Russell/Wilt/Oscar/West era and he was elite in both eras. He doesn't strike me as a flashy player at all, just a tenacious motor guy with solid fundamentals who can do whatever was needed.

Alternate vote: Charles Barkley. This was very tough for me since there are a number of people not nominated yet that I would prefer over the choices available. Kind of like an election where you don't like any of the candidates and would prefer to vote for none of the above. But since I can only vote for someone who has been nominated, I will give Sir Charles my vote. Elite offensive player with longevity. 1993 MVP and 11-time All NBA (5 first teams, 5 second teams and 1 third team), and led the league in TS% 4 times. Also an excellent rebounder in his prime, leading the league once and finishing in the top ten 9 times.



Nomination: Walt Frazier. Was always a fan of his and felt he was largely underrated since his role on the Knicks wasn't to be a dominant shooter. The Knicks were the epitome of a team-first emphasis in which the ball kept moving and resulted in guys like Frazier, Reed, DeBusschere, Barnett (then Monroe), Bradley, Lucas, etc. all getting their shots. Frazier was so good and efficient that if I were Red Holzman I probably would have wanted Frazier shooting more and DeBusschere and Bradley shoot a little less, but no one was asking me to coach the team. But within the parameters that Holzman wanted, Frazier played his part superbly. He took care of the ball, shot a very high percentage, and was a dominant man defender. 7-time All Defensive First Team, 4-time All NBA First Team (and 2-time second team), he was a guy who did everything very well with no glaring weakness.

Alternate nomination: John Stockton. For me this was between Stockton and Havlicek and it is very close. I think Hondo peaked a tad higher and while Stockton had greater longevity, that is somewhat offset by the difference in eras. But I struggle with how Hondo in his 20's could not/did not achieve the heights he achieved in his early 30's. Very close between the two but the tie-breaker for me was the overall league strength in Stockton's era va Hondo's.

Stockton's consistency is just incredible; finishing in the top 10 in assists for nine straight seasons would be highly impressive but leading the league in assist % for 14 out of 16 seasons is near impossible to wrap my head around. Especially when you have guys like prime Magic Johnson running around at the beginning of that streak and Jason Kidd during the latter part of that streak. Throw in 8 seasons in the top 5 in TS % and his 5 seasons on the All Defensive 2nd team just becomes the cherry on top.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#38 » by One_and_Done » Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:23 am

I'm hoping maybe you'll see the logical inconsistency. Do you believe in anything that involves using our imagination to consider alternative possibilities? Like, do you consider history essays a waste of time? When some guy you know wins a million dollars the first and only time he plays roulette are you convinced he's a genius, or can we consider alternative possibilities through hypothetical discussion. We'll never be able to prove he's not a genius gambler, because we can only imagine it I guess? Personally I feel the Eagle is faster than the Dodo, but since the Dodo is extinct I guess we will never know. How could we? We never saw them race.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#39 » by iggymcfrack » Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:33 am

One_and_Done wrote:
Spoiler:
iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Nikola Jokic

-Three of the top 15 seasons of all-time by PER (Harden peaks at #25, Wade peaks at #27, Barkley peaks at #54)

-Three of the top 5 seasons of all-time by BPM which is more accurate (Harden peaks at #18, Wade peaks at #24, Barkley peaks at #46)

-Provides much more impact than box numbers can capture and consistently rates much better in impact metrics than in box metrics (Harden, the closest by box numbers consistently ranks worse in impact stats)

-Raises his game in the playoffs to the point that he's led the league in at least one major box composite in 3 of his 5 postseasons and led his team to one of the most dominant rings of all-time his first postseason with healthy teammates after reaching peak level

I mean, if you're looking at ring equity, do you really think anyone left on this list gives you more than a guy playing at all-time supernova level for 3 years, all-NBA level for another 4, and solid star level (still top 10 by some metrics) in the 8th season? Wade has no advantage in meaningful longevity. His 9th best season by VORP, his team went 10-41 with him on the floor in an 82 game season. Barkley and Harden both failed to convert their long careers into even a single ring. And Pettit still wasn't as dominant as Jokic in a league that had 15 black players total with only a slightly longer career. Giannis has gone in, now this has to be time for the Joker.


Nominate: John Stockton

Hard for me to say how you don't take at least one of these 2 players. Jokic is top 3 all-time for peak and Stockton is probably top 3 all-time for longevity. 26 year RAPM ranks him as a top 5 player of the data ball era in his age 34-40 seasons only. He ranks 3rd all-time in VORP and in weighted WAR (weighting peak years higher) behind only Jordan and LeBron. I have him #15 all-time and I still wonder sometimes if that's too low. Absolutely tremendous defender who has 581 more steals than anyone in history despite gambling very little and rarely getting caught out of place. Ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 13th, and 18th all-time for most assists in a season. That's literally half of the top 18 seasons. He often gets undervalued because he wasn't an elite scorer, but he's so amazing at everything else that he more than makes up for it.

You don't feel Harden strong enough to preference him? Because it's not totally implausible Harden is in contention here.


I don't feel like doing an alternate because I'm so strong on Jokic, but between the candidates, I'd have:

Jokic >> Wade > Barkley >> Harden >>> Pettit

I know Harden's playoff numbers aren't as bad as the eye test, but it feels like it's so rare for him to come up big when it really matters in the postseason. Even the year they almost beat the Warriors, it felt like Chris Paul was the real heart and soul of the team who you could trust in crunch time. Like what's Harden's best playoff run? Statistically it would be 2020, but they were never remotely in that series with the Lakers and he didn't have the normal pressure of the crowd because of the bubble. Has he ever come up big in a competitive series after the first round?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/19/23) 

Post#40 » by f4p » Sun Sep 17, 2023 3:57 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
Spoiler:
iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Nikola Jokic

-Three of the top 15 seasons of all-time by PER (Harden peaks at #25, Wade peaks at #27, Barkley peaks at #54)

-Three of the top 5 seasons of all-time by BPM which is more accurate (Harden peaks at #18, Wade peaks at #24, Barkley peaks at #46)

-Provides much more impact than box numbers can capture and consistently rates much better in impact metrics than in box metrics (Harden, the closest by box numbers consistently ranks worse in impact stats)

-Raises his game in the playoffs to the point that he's led the league in at least one major box composite in 3 of his 5 postseasons and led his team to one of the most dominant rings of all-time his first postseason with healthy teammates after reaching peak level

I mean, if you're looking at ring equity, do you really think anyone left on this list gives you more than a guy playing at all-time supernova level for 3 years, all-NBA level for another 4, and solid star level (still top 10 by some metrics) in the 8th season? Wade has no advantage in meaningful longevity. His 9th best season by VORP, his team went 10-41 with him on the floor in an 82 game season. Barkley and Harden both failed to convert their long careers into even a single ring. And Pettit still wasn't as dominant as Jokic in a league that had 15 black players total with only a slightly longer career. Giannis has gone in, now this has to be time for the Joker.


Nominate: John Stockton

Hard for me to say how you don't take at least one of these 2 players. Jokic is top 3 all-time for peak and Stockton is probably top 3 all-time for longevity. 26 year RAPM ranks him as a top 5 player of the data ball era in his age 34-40 seasons only. He ranks 3rd all-time in VORP and in weighted WAR (weighting peak years higher) behind only Jordan and LeBron. I have him #15 all-time and I still wonder sometimes if that's too low. Absolutely tremendous defender who has 581 more steals than anyone in history despite gambling very little and rarely getting caught out of place. Ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 13th, and 18th all-time for most assists in a season. That's literally half of the top 18 seasons. He often gets undervalued because he wasn't an elite scorer, but he's so amazing at everything else that he more than makes up for it.

You don't feel Harden strong enough to preference him? Because it's not totally implausible Harden is in contention here.


I don't feel like doing an alternate because I'm so strong on Jokic, but between the candidates, I'd have:

Jokic >> Wade > Barkley >> Harden >>> Pettit

I know Harden's playoff numbers aren't as bad as the eye test, but it feels like it's so rare for him to come up big when it really matters in the postseason. Even the year they almost beat the Warriors, it felt like Chris Paul was the real heart and soul of the team who you could trust in crunch time. Like what's Harden's best playoff run? Statistically it would be 2020, but they were never remotely in that series with the Lakers and he didn't have the normal pressure of the crowd because of the bubble. Has he ever come up big in a competitive series after the first round?


Like averaging 35/7/5.5 and being the best player in the series in 2019 against the warriors?

Or putting up 32/8/7 on 66 TS%, including 2 top 30 game scores for the entire decade of the playoffs, in the first 4 games against the #1 defense, 67 win warriors in 2015, including 1 and 3 point losses on the road in Oracle, with something like a +40 on/off (really), only to still be down 1-3? Or is it retroactively not competitive if you lose by one possession to a great team? When your worldview is just "haha 12 turnovers" from game 5, you miss things.

Also great in the 2012 WCF to beat an unbelievable spurs team. And of course almost beating the 2018 warriors and having it not count is a nice bit of trickery. Cp3's 20/6 on 52 TS% and something like +3 on/off (I think it was 0 in the 5 games he actually played) was better than harden's 29/6/6 on 54 TS% and +14 on/off. So yes, if you ignore all his good moments, then he didn't have any.

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