TheFutureMM wrote:Bobby Plump wrote:New FIBA rankings:
1. USA
2. Spain
3. Germany
4. Australia
5. Serbia
6. Canada
7. Argentina
8. Latvia
9. France
10. Lithuania
https://www.fiba.basketball/rankingmen
Happy for Canada but I really do think this updates shows the flaw in FIBA's ranking system.
How on earth, did Argentina, who didn't qualify for the tournament, only fall from 4 -> 7, while teams like France, Lithuania, and Slovenia who qualified and actually won some games, ended up moving down significantly more. I'd be pissed as a fan of these teams.
I think what this shows is that it's average of your Rating Points for the games you play, and because Argentina didn't play any games, their overall average RPs weren't influenced as much as teams that came and lost like France, Lithuania, and Slovenia. They say on their site that they account for this by taking into account games played and penalizing teams for less games played (aka missing a tourney due to not qualifying) but really I think this needs to be way harsher.
I think they need to really switch over to a Tennis Ranking type system. Keep it a little different where you still take into account how you finished in years prior to the current one and weigh them less over time (like they do now) but really focus on where you finish in the tournament as opposed to how much you win / lose by in the games played.
When we beat up on France by +20, we nuked their rating, which is fair, but because Argentina didn't even qualify, they didn't have the opportunity to get nuked by the heavy hitters, so their average score was almost safeguarded. In my opinion, because they didn't even get to show up - they should have been nuked harder than France did.
I could be rambling, and flat out wrong, but this is how I'm interpreting these updated rankings, and if I'm right, the system is ****.
You have correctly zoned in on how the rankings work. Argentina pretty much only lost points because of time decay (a slow and steady eating away of historical points). Over time this will continue to punish them. But you are exactly right, if they made the WC and got smoked repeatedly they would be hit allot harder and quicker. It is seemingly a flaw, but almost irrelevant if they continue to fail to qualify for meaningful tournaments. I think the method is fine as it more forgiving to the Euro teams that don't make the WC or Olympics. I think it is intentful by FIBA as it is so much harder for Euro teams to Qualify and they are likley trying not to punish them too much. Argentina is just the lucky Americas beneficiary at the moment.