2023 Free Agency

[Note30]

Where would his minutes come from?

The limited likelihood of a Payne signing would likely signal the team wants a "true PG" upgrade over McLaughlin and they see Milton in more of a combo/off-guard role.

96 min per game : Ant 30, Conley 24, Milton 20, Payne 20. It will be nice to have some depth for injuries, new signing doesn't pan out (ex Forbes), or a mid season trade for KD

So NAW is just out of the lineup? We have only Ant for primary defense at the guard spot?

In no world where we have a good record is that possible that we are running Conley and Ant for a combined less than 62-64 minutes.

I'm not saying don't sign him but he's not cracking 8 minutes a game and realistically that's not happening unless he's guaranteed a ring.

[TimberKat]

The limited likelihood of a Payne signing would likely signal the team wants a "true PG" upgrade over McLaughlin and they see Milton in more of a combo/off-guard role.

96 min per game : Ant 30, Conley 24, Milton 20, Payne 20. It will be nice to have some depth for injuries, new signing doesn't pan out (ex Forbes), or a mid season trade for KD

So NAW is just out of the lineup? We have only Ant for primary defense at the guard spot?

In no world where we have a good record is that possible that we are running Conley and Ant for a combined less than 62-64 minutes.

I'm not saying don't sign him but he's not cracking 8 minutes a game and realistically that's not happening unless he's guaranteed a ring.

So Ant plays 30 mins on average for the season at SG. That leaves 18 mins on avg. Milton at 6-6 is the backup shooting guard (the new Nowell). Ant plays 30+ mins at SG, so he is 'the primary' SG defender. Conley on avg of the season is 24min. Payne is his primary backup. Are you saying Conley and Payne can't defend? You still mix in NAW and Brown as needed.

[Note30]

96 min per game : Ant 30, Conley 24, Milton 20, Payne 20. It will be nice to have some depth for injuries, new signing doesn't pan out (ex Forbes), or a mid season trade for KD

So NAW is just out of the lineup? We have only Ant for primary defense at the guard spot?

In no world where we have a good record is that possible that we are running Conley and Ant for a combined less than 62-64 minutes.

I'm not saying don't sign him but he's not cracking 8 minutes a game and realistically that's not happening unless he's guaranteed a ring.

So Ant plays 30 mins on average for the season at SG. That leaves 18 mins on avg. Milton at 6-6 is the backup shooting guard (the new Nowell). Ant plays 30+ mins at SG, so he is 'the primary' SG defender. Conley on avg of the season is 24min. Payne is his primary backup. Are you saying Conley and Payne can't defend? You still mix in NAW and Brown as needed.

Conley is okay, but Ant can compensate if necessary.
Payne can't, he's maybe the same as Conley at best, and worse he's a high pace PG. Can Milton play defense as well as Ant? NAW could cover Paynes mistakes, but then we just signed a free agent and are giving him the **** end of the stick.

I'd rather free agents who come to Minnesota get what they are promised which for Milton was probably PT.

Otherwise we're a small market, hard winter city team, AND we don't keep our promises.

I'm sure NAW also signed with some promise of PT and not to be relegated to the end of the bench.

Brown is a back up SF, not relevant here.

[thinktank]

If we got Payne we would be lucky. Period.

[shrink]

Cam Payne may consider coming here, thinking he can beat out Shake Milton and Jordan MacLaughlin for the back up PG role. If he feels that the Wolves are contenders, and that Ant will get MIN on more tv screens as the season evolves, that popularity would help his image for his next deal.

[Mamba4Goat]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

[frankenwolf]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

IDK - if they sign Cam, it would just make training camp that much more competitive, which wouldn't be a bad idea. I don't see the Wolves signing Cam, but if it happens, I would not be upset.

[minimus]

I dont see Payne signing with MIN, he will be 3rd string PG here

[shrink]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

I can understand this. We’ll never know what was promised, but it is a very interesting question.

To get a guy like Naz to sign here, I imagine promises needed to be made, particularly that he will get a certain amount of minutes. With two former All-NBA centers in front of him, our team has the best chance of anyone to damage his career. He appears to be good friends with Ant too, so I question whether the organization would do him wrong by limiting his minutes or simply trading him without his consent. I have read that if an organization screws over players and agents, this reputation spreads (usually not as loudly as James Harden current complaints!), and it makes it harder for the team to get deals done in the future.

Is Shake Milton the same caliber of player to warrant that? The Sixers chose to let him go, and he did choose to sign here (which I’m grateful for), but was he promised a role, or promised the opportunity to compete for a role? The NBA is a competitive business, filled with competitive people, and they may all assume they’d win any competition for their role.

As an aside, I happened to watch the Twins-Reds baseball game last night. Last year, Kyle Farmer led the Reds in RBI’s by a wide margin, and the Twins traded for him to be their starting shortstop. However, when All-Star Carlos Correa became available, he obviously jumped in as shortstop, and Farmer lost his position. Shake Milton is no Farmer, but maybe he would be frustrated if he was asked to step aside for Cam Payne, who’s no Carlos Correa? Good question - teams can act like they are families, but they are businesses.

[Note30]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

Literally what I was saying above.

[Note30]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

I can understand this. We’ll never know what was promised, but it is a very interesting question.

To get a guy like Naz to sign here, I imagine promises needed to be made, particularly that he will get a certain amount of minutes. With two former All-NBA centers in front of him, our team has the best chance of anyone to damage his career. He appears to be good friends with Ant too, so I question whether the organization would do him wrong by limiting his minutes or simply trading him without his consent. I have read that if an organization screws over players and agents, this reputation spreads (usually not as loudly as James Harden current complaints!), and it makes it harder for the team to get deals done in the future.

Is Shake Milton the same caliber of player to warrant that? The Sixers chose to let him go, and he did choose to sign here (which I’m grateful for), but was he promised a role, or promised the opportunity to compete for a role? The NBA is a competitive business, filled with competitive people, and they may all assume they’d win any competition for their role.

As an aside, I happened to watch the Twins-Reds baseball game last night. Last year, Kyle Farmer led the Reds in RBI’s by a wide margin, and the Twins traded for him to be their starting shortstop. However, when All-Star Carlos Correa became available, he obviously jumped in as shortstop, and Farmer lost his position. Shake Milton is no Farmer, but maybe he would be frustrated if he was asked to step aside for Cam Payne, who’s no Carlos Correa? Good question - teams can act like they are families, but they are businesses.

It doesn't matter if Shake is good enough or of the same caliber. The amount of players who are good enough to play in the NBA in any given year is less than 500. Out of 500 players in the world including overseas that drops off further after each set of 100.

Point is, that's a small group of people, hell most medium to large companies have a larger employee pool.

My guess is they are all connected in some way or another. Agents, managers, players, with less than 500 people and maybe a larger potential pool of a couple hundred more, if you have the reputation as franchise that doesn't care about its players you're hurting the supply side of the market.

Your ability to get good not desperate free agents (maybe 150-200 people) goes down significantly.

Hell we've been trying to get a semi-decent competent PG who could shoot for years and all we could scrounge have been Teague, Russell, and Conley. Conley is great but he's old. Everyone else is yuck.

So yeah I would prefer not to piss off the very limited number of players who can play that spot well.

If you got Shake, promised him something, stick with it.

[BlacJacMac]

I'm much more intrigued by Shake than by Payne.

I know there is only a 2 year difference in ages, but I feel like Payne is exactly "what you see is what you get".

Shake has been jerked around a little more, and apparently playing for Doc did him no favors. So I think there may be a little untapped potential still in him.

[TimberKat]

Does anyone else feel like it’d be a slimy move to sign Shake presumably with a set role being his for the taking just to sign someone to take it from him before the season even begins? It’d be different if J-Mac, Moore, or one of the training camp guards earned it but signing Cam Payne feels like the team would be doing wrong by Milton to me.

I can understand this. We’ll never know what was promised, but it is a very interesting question.

To get a guy like Naz to sign here, I imagine promises needed to be made, particularly that he will get a certain amount of minutes. With two former All-NBA centers in front of him, our team has the best chance of anyone to damage his career. He appears to be good friends with Ant too, so I question whether the organization would do him wrong by limiting his minutes or simply trading him without his consent. I have read that if an organization screws over players and agents, this reputation spreads (usually not as loudly as James Harden current complaints!), and it makes it harder for the team to get deals done in the future.

Is Shake Milton the same caliber of player to warrant that? The Sixers chose to let him go, and he did choose to sign here (which I’m grateful for), but was he promised a role, or promised the opportunity to compete for a role? The NBA is a competitive business, filled with competitive people, and they may all assume they’d win any competition for their role.

As an aside, I happened to watch the Twins-Reds baseball game last night. Last year, Kyle Farmer led the Reds in RBI’s by a wide margin, and the Twins traded for him to be their starting shortstop. However, when All-Star Carlos Correa became available, he obviously jumped in as shortstop, and Farmer lost his position. Shake Milton is no Farmer, but maybe he would be frustrated if he was asked to step aside for Cam Payne, who’s no Carlos Correa? Good question - teams can act like they are families, but they are businesses.

It doesn't matter if Shake is good enough or of the same caliber. The amount of players who are good enough to play in the NBA in any given year is less than 500. Out of 500 players in the world including overseas that drops off further after each set of 100.

Point is, that's a small group of people, hell most medium to large companies have a larger employee pool.

My guess is they are all connected in some way or another. Agents, managers, players, with less than 500 people and maybe a larger potential pool of a couple hundred more, if you have the reputation as franchise that doesn't care about its players you're hurting the supply side of the market.

Your ability to get good not desperate free agents (maybe 150-200 people) goes down significantly.

Hell we've been trying to get a semi-decent competent PG who could shoot for years and all we could scrounge have been Teague, Russell, and Conley. Conley is great but he's old. Everyone else is yuck.

So yeah I would prefer not to piss off the very limited number of players who can play that spot well.

If you got Shake, promised him something, stick with it.

Did the Wolves organization actually promised Shake anything? Like he will have the backup point guard role or he will get 500+ minutes? Why can't he play backup shooting guard or part of a 3 guard attack? Maybe I missed something but I am not aware of any promises. If you think he is good at ptg, then he should beat out JMcL, Moore, and Payne for minutes.

[Klomp]

I can understand this. We’ll never know what was promised, but it is a very interesting question.

To get a guy like Naz to sign here, I imagine promises needed to be made, particularly that he will get a certain amount of minutes. With two former All-NBA centers in front of him, our team has the best chance of anyone to damage his career. He appears to be good friends with Ant too, so I question whether the organization would do him wrong by limiting his minutes or simply trading him without his consent. I have read that if an organization screws over players and agents, this reputation spreads (usually not as loudly as James Harden current complaints!), and it makes it harder for the team to get deals done in the future.

Is Shake Milton the same caliber of player to warrant that? The Sixers chose to let him go, and he did choose to sign here (which I’m grateful for), but was he promised a role, or promised the opportunity to compete for a role? The NBA is a competitive business, filled with competitive people, and they may all assume they’d win any competition for their role.

As an aside, I happened to watch the Twins-Reds baseball game last night. Last year, Kyle Farmer led the Reds in RBI’s by a wide margin, and the Twins traded for him to be their starting shortstop. However, when All-Star Carlos Correa became available, he obviously jumped in as shortstop, and Farmer lost his position. Shake Milton is no Farmer, but maybe he would be frustrated if he was asked to step aside for Cam Payne, who’s no Carlos Correa? Good question - teams can act like they are families, but they are businesses.

It doesn't matter if Shake is good enough or of the same caliber. The amount of players who are good enough to play in the NBA in any given year is less than 500. Out of 500 players in the world including overseas that drops off further after each set of 100.

Point is, that's a small group of people, hell most medium to large companies have a larger employee pool.

My guess is they are all connected in some way or another. Agents, managers, players, with less than 500 people and maybe a larger potential pool of a couple hundred more, if you have the reputation as franchise that doesn't care about its players you're hurting the supply side of the market.

Your ability to get good not desperate free agents (maybe 150-200 people) goes down significantly.

Hell we've been trying to get a semi-decent competent PG who could shoot for years and all we could scrounge have been Teague, Russell, and Conley. Conley is great but he's old. Everyone else is yuck.

So yeah I would prefer not to piss off the very limited number of players who can play that spot well.

If you got Shake, promised him something, stick with it.

Did the Wolves organization actually promised Shake anything? Like he will have the backup point guard role or he will get 500+ minutes? Why can't he play backup shooting guard or part of a 3 guard attack? Maybe I missed something but I am not aware of any promises. If you think he is good at ptg, then he should beat out JMcL, Moore, and Payne for minutes.

He may not have been promised anything per se, but you have certain expectations on a situation based on what the teams told you in their free agency pitch. Sure you could do the old bait and switch, but that can also affect how said players come into the new season, how they train, etc.

From when his season ended on April 29 until July 5, 2022, Karl-Anthony Towns expected to be the starting center. He trained to be the starting center. And then on July 6, he was told he's going to move to power forward. That's why he was caught so off-guard when he first heard the news that he thought Minnesota had traded for Rudy Gay, because the thought of trading for an all-NBA center never entered his frame of mind. That's also why he's so much thinner today than he was on Sept. 20, 2022, because he's known all along since the 2022-23 season that he's going into the 2023-24 season as the starting power forward, so he knew he needed to get his body slimmed down and improve his quickness and agility.

[TimberKat]

It doesn't matter if Shake is good enough or of the same caliber. The amount of players who are good enough to play in the NBA in any given year is less than 500. Out of 500 players in the world including overseas that drops off further after each set of 100.

Point is, that's a small group of people, hell most medium to large companies have a larger employee pool.

My guess is they are all connected in some way or another. Agents, managers, players, with less than 500 people and maybe a larger potential pool of a couple hundred more, if you have the reputation as franchise that doesn't care about its players you're hurting the supply side of the market.

Your ability to get good not desperate free agents (maybe 150-200 people) goes down significantly.

Hell we've been trying to get a semi-decent competent PG who could shoot for years and all we could scrounge have been Teague, Russell, and Conley. Conley is great but he's old. Everyone else is yuck.

So yeah I would prefer not to piss off the very limited number of players who can play that spot well.

If you got Shake, promised him something, stick with it.

Did the Wolves organization actually promised Shake anything? Like he will have the backup point guard role or he will get 500+ minutes? Why can't he play backup shooting guard or part of a 3 guard attack? Maybe I missed something but I am not aware of any promises. If you think he is good at ptg, then he should beat out JMcL, Moore, and Payne for minutes.

He may not have been promised anything per se, but you have certain expectations on a situation based on what the teams told you in their free agency pitch. Sure you could do the old bait and switch, but that can also affect how said players come into the new season, how they train, etc.

From when his season ended on April 29 until July 5, 2022, Karl-Anthony Towns expected to be the starting center. He trained to be the starting center. And then on July 6, he was told he's going to move to power forward. That's why he was caught so off-guard when he first heard the news that he thought Minnesota had traded for Rudy Gay, because the thought of trading for an all-NBA center never entered his frame of mind. That's also why he's so much thinner today than he was on Sept. 20, 2022, because he's known all along since the 2022-23 season that he's going into the 2023-24 season as the starting power forward, so he knew he needed to get his body slimmed down and improve his quickness and agility.

I see your point and let's not forget we loss Billups because we didn't promise him the starting role (at least that was the publicly known reason). However, I see Milton as more of a combo guard or shooting guard like Nowell that could play point. If Conley is out for a month, I see we start JMcL/Payne instead of Milton. I have a hard time thinking Wolves organization actually tell him that he will be the backup PG. Maybe tell him he will get minutes in a Clarkson role.

[Klomp]

However, I see Milton as more of a combo guard or shooting guard like Nowell that could play point. If Conley is out for a month, I see we start JMcL/Payne instead of Milton. I have a hard time thinking Wolves organization actually tell him that he will be the backup PG. Maybe tell him he will get minutes in a Clarkson role.

Again, I go back to the fact that I don't think Finch sees point guard in the traditional sense. We don't need a Chris Paul/John Stockton dribble the air out of the ball guy at that spot. We need a guy who is as comfortable without the ball as he is with the ball (that's where the Nowell comparison ends). And keep in mind, with POA defenders already on hand in McDaniels and Alexander-Walker, we need guards who are smart, big and strong enough as defenders to be able to go against bigger off-guards and wings.

We didn't trade for Conley for his "pure PG" abilities. His usage was among the lowest of his career and his usage percentage was easily the lowest of his career. Russell couldn't handle that role, but Conley thrived in it. Nowell couldn't handle the role, but I believe Milton could thrive in it. Milton has carved out an effective role on a playoff team with usage rates around 18%. Nowell has dang near played himself out of the NBA with usage rates 21% and up the last three years, topped out at 25% last season. He delivered a 15.9% assist rate last season, while Milton's assist rates haven't dipped below 17 percent since his rookie year.

For reference, McLaughlin's usage rate is 13.1% for his career with a career assist rate of 27.9%. That's why Finch keeps him around.

[TimberKat]

However, I see Milton as more of a combo guard or shooting guard like Nowell that could play point. If Conley is out for a month, I see we start JMcL/Payne instead of Milton. I have a hard time thinking Wolves organization actually tell him that he will be the backup PG. Maybe tell him he will get minutes in a Clarkson role.

Again, I go back to the fact that I don't think Finch sees point guard in the traditional sense. We don't need a Chris Paul/John Stockton dribble the air out of the ball guy at that spot. We need a guy who is as comfortable without the ball as he is with the ball (that's where the Nowell comparison ends). And keep in mind, with POA defenders already on hand in McDaniels and Alexander-Walker, we need guards who are smart, big and strong enough as defenders to be able to go against bigger off-guards and wings.

We didn't trade for Conley for his "pure PG" abilities. His usage was among the lowest of his career and his usage percentage was easily the lowest of his career. Russell couldn't handle that role, but Conley thrived in it. Nowell couldn't handle the role, but I believe Milton could thrive in it. Milton has carved out an effective role on a playoff team with usage rates around 18%. Nowell has dang near played himself out of the NBA with usage rates 21% and up the last three years, topped out at 25% last season. He delivered a 15.9% assist rate last season, while Milton's assist rates haven't dipped below 17 percent since his rookie year.

For reference, McLaughlin's usage rate is 13.1% for his career with a career assist rate of 27.9%. That's why Finch keeps him around.

I don't think usage rate is a good measure of pg usage. Here is the formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Notice touches per possession or assists are not part of it.

I still expect we need Conley or any PG to still facilitate, setup, and move the ball even with low usage rate. As the same time, be able to attack the basket, draw defenders and pass off. But will see how it goes with Finch's new structured offense.

Some old example: "Ricky Rubio has a usage rate of 13.6% which would put him as the 11th most used player on the Wolves’ roster. However, he leads his team in touches with 77.7 per game. He also has a drastic lead in time of possession per game, with a 6.5 ToP score. Contrast this with KAT who has a 27.3% usage rate but only a 2.0 ToP score. So despite having a very low usage rate, Rubio is integrally involved in the majority of Timberwolves possessions."

[Note30]

Did the Wolves organization actually promised Shake anything? Like he will have the backup point guard role or he will get 500+ minutes? Why can't he play backup shooting guard or part of a 3 guard attack? Maybe I missed something but I am not aware of any promises. If you think he is good at ptg, then he should beat out JMcL, Moore, and Payne for minutes.

He may not have been promised anything per se, but you have certain expectations on a situation based on what the teams told you in their free agency pitch. Sure you could do the old bait and switch, but that can also affect how said players come into the new season, how they train, etc.

From when his season ended on April 29 until July 5, 2022, Karl-Anthony Towns expected to be the starting center. He trained to be the starting center. And then on July 6, he was told he's going to move to power forward. That's why he was caught so off-guard when he first heard the news that he thought Minnesota had traded for Rudy Gay, because the thought of trading for an all-NBA center never entered his frame of mind. That's also why he's so much thinner today than he was on Sept. 20, 2022, because he's known all along since the 2022-23 season that he's going into the 2023-24 season as the starting power forward, so he knew he needed to get his body slimmed down and improve his quickness and agility.

I see your point and let's not forget we loss Billups because we didn't promise him the starting role (at least that was the publicly known reason). However, I see Milton as more of a combo guard or shooting guard like Nowell that could play point. If Conley is out for a month, I see we start JMcL/Payne instead of Milton. I have a hard time thinking Wolves organization actually tell him that he will be the backup PG. Maybe tell him he will get minutes in a Clarkson role.

Usually when you take a job because there's an opening the expectation is you fill that opening. Nowell was essentially replaced by NAW last year albeit two different players. I expect Milton to take McL minutes.

[KATKlownFeet]

I like Shake a lot and I like Payne too, but I don't want Shake losing minutes to Payne. I'd rather Wolves bring in a young guy and the ones available that intrigue me are Theo Maledon, Kennedy Chandler, Michael Devoe or someone to be cut by OKC.

[Klomp]

However, I see Milton as more of a combo guard or shooting guard like Nowell that could play point. If Conley is out for a month, I see we start JMcL/Payne instead of Milton. I have a hard time thinking Wolves organization actually tell him that he will be the backup PG. Maybe tell him he will get minutes in a Clarkson role.

Again, I go back to the fact that I don't think Finch sees point guard in the traditional sense. We don't need a Chris Paul/John Stockton dribble the air out of the ball guy at that spot. We need a guy who is as comfortable without the ball as he is with the ball (that's where the Nowell comparison ends). And keep in mind, with POA defenders already on hand in McDaniels and Alexander-Walker, we need guards who are smart, big and strong enough as defenders to be able to go against bigger off-guards and wings.

We didn't trade for Conley for his "pure PG" abilities. His usage was among the lowest of his career and his usage percentage was easily the lowest of his career. Russell couldn't handle that role, but Conley thrived in it. Nowell couldn't handle the role, but I believe Milton could thrive in it. Milton has carved out an effective role on a playoff team with usage rates around 18%. Nowell has dang near played himself out of the NBA with usage rates 21% and up the last three years, topped out at 25% last season. He delivered a 15.9% assist rate last season, while Milton's assist rates haven't dipped below 17 percent since his rookie year.

For reference, McLaughlin's usage rate is 13.1% for his career with a career assist rate of 27.9%. That's why Finch keeps him around.

I don't think usage rate is a good measure of pg usage. Here is the formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Notice touches per possession or assists are not part of it.

I still expect we need Conley or any PG to still facilitate, setup, and move the ball even with low usage rate. As the same time, be able to attack the basket, draw defenders and pass off. But will see how it goes with Finch's new structured offense.

Some old example: "Ricky Rubio has a usage rate of 13.6% which would put him as the 11th most used player on the Wolves’ roster. However, he leads his team in touches with 77.7 per game. He also has a drastic lead in time of possession per game, with a 6.5 ToP score. Contrast this with KAT who has a 27.3% usage rate but only a 2.0 ToP score. So despite having a very low usage rate, Rubio is integrally involved in the majority of Timberwolves possessions."

For the record, I'm using the Basketball Reference version of usage, where Rubio's career low usage rate is 16.0% and his average is 19%. I'm not saying it's a perfect stat, but people should be able to understand the gist of what I'm trying to say unless they're intentionally being dense.