Markelle Fultz

[Bensational]

Watch on YouTube

I like how there were 2 examples max of him distributing in the half court for this hype video.

Everything else is transition.

Lol, a video full of half court sets and you can’t even acknowledging it. You should go back and watch and see how often defenses sag off Gary Harris - the team’s best 3pt shooter.

[fendilim]

I remember you posting this - it’s a fun comparison side by side. I’m sure there is some reflection of Markelle’s influence (good and bad) shown there, but I’m hesitant to draw the conclusions you have based on it being a small 14 game sample w/ a rookie and second year playing in extremely unconventional lineups.

well, i checked on previous seasons when we had Fultz here.

Here’s 2 full season of stat for when we had Vucevic team up with Fultz.

I selected the first and second year Fultz and Vuc were on the same team and under the same coach - Steve Clifford. So we have the same system too. 2019-2020 vs 2020-2021 (pre-trade).

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2019-2020 was when fultz played almost a whole season, and 2020-2021 was when Fultz only played 8 games.

2019-2020, when Fultz played 72 games, 49.9% of Vuc’ total shots were tightly contested. 50.1% were open/wide open.

2020-2021, Fultz played only 8 games, 41% of Vuc’ total shots were tightly contested. 58.3% of his shots were open/wide open.

Vuc was all-star in 20-21, was traded during the trade deadline.

2018-19 is another comparison year. Vuc's first Allstar year, the year the team returned to the playoffs under Clifford, and we had DJ Augustin as our PG. Vuc took twice as many closely contested shots that season than the following seasons (18% frequency vs 9% under Fultz).

Here's where the numbers and results don't seem to align with results - when Vuc and Paolo had more wide open looks, their teams lost more. Ie, in Fultz' first season in 19-20 Vuc took half as many closely contested shots, but team wins went down. The following season Fultz went down after 8 games, Vuc started taking even fewer closely contested shots - and the team tanked. He went to Chicago, and his team tanked.

It was the same with Paolo to start last season. His numbers were better, but the team's record was tremendously worse. His efficiency may have gone down when Fultz returned, but the team's wins went up. We were 6-5 in February when Paolo had his worst shooting month of his rookie season.

2018-2019 was when we traded for Fultz mid-season.

So I didn’t use that as a comparison because obviously the offense wasn’t ran with Fultz in mind, yet.

[VFX]

Watch on YouTube

I like how there were 2 examples max of him distributing in the half court for this hype video.

Everything else is transition.

Lol, a video full of half court sets and you can’t even acknowledging it. You should go back and watch and see how often defenses sag off Gary Harris - the team’s best 3pt shooter.

Defenses sag off everyone on the roster with Fultz on the floor.

[Bensational]

2018-19 is another comparison year. Vuc's first Allstar year, the year the team returned to the playoffs under Clifford, and we had DJ Augustin as our PG. Vuc took twice as many closely contested shots that season than the following seasons (18% frequency vs 9% under Fultz).

Here's where the numbers and results don't seem to align with results - when Vuc and Paolo had more wide open looks, their teams lost more. Ie, in Fultz' first season in 19-20 Vuc took half as many closely contested shots, but team wins went down. The following season Fultz went down after 8 games, Vuc started taking even fewer closely contested shots - and the team tanked. He went to Chicago, and his team tanked.

It was the same with Paolo to start last season. His numbers were better, but the team's record was tremendously worse. His efficiency may have gone down when Fultz returned, but the team's wins went up. We were 6-5 in February when Paolo had his worst shooting month of his rookie season.

2018-2019 was when we traded for Fultz mid-season.

So I didn’t use that as a comparison because obviously the offense wasn’t ran with Fultz in mind, yet.

Isn’t that the point? Comparing the same team playing with the same makeup but PG alternatives? DJ was a floor spacing PG, but that lead to Vuc taking more highly contested shots. The non-spacing Fultz arrived and the amount of highly contested shots for Vuc halved the next season.

Personally I’m not confident in drawing correlations between the two, and I think other factors were at play more than a simple conclusion of Fultz being a better court presence.

[SOUL]

There's half truths in all of these arguments. Defenses sag if Fultz is open at the three point line which is a problem, they absolutely collapse and scramble when he is attacking - which is why he will need to hit and attempt threes at a decent clip next season.

The play-making/raw assist number stuff is bogus though. He's a solid passer. Not elite like Haliburton or Chris Paul but there are less and less pure PGs that exist and he's in the middle of the pack when it comes to court vision where he usually can find the open man.

[Bensational]

There's half truths in all of these arguments. Defenses sag if Fultz is open at the three point line which is a problem

The thing people don't seem to acknowledge is that a defense is going to look to sag off anyone, any time they can - even good shooters. It's not always that they're disrespectfully daring a player to make a shot they don't believe they can, it's because all defenses are designed to collapse and that starts with weak side help defense. So even Gary Harris will have his defender sagging off him because a 35-40% chance at a 3 isn't as threatening as a 50-65% chance from 2. We've got a bunch of guys who are big threats to score if they get into the paint, not just Paolo, Franz and Fultz, but Wendell, Moe Wagner, Cole and Suggs. Basic scouting is going to tell a defense that the 55% of the Magic's points come from 2's, and only 29% come from 3's so they're going to be even more inclined to sag.

And unsurprisingly, when Fultz is off the ball he's usually on the weak side corner. You could swap Fultz with any gun shooter and you'll still have some defenders in some plays who see Paolo/Franz driving into the paint and instinctively rotate into help defense and leave a good shooter open. Part of it is sagging, part of it is the gravity of Paolo and Franz, and part of it is just the defensive gameplan for an opponent who collectively doesn't shoot much and prefers to get into the paint.

None of this is an excuse for Fultz not adding more shooting to his game - he needs to.

[Skybox]

Ok, assuming that’s true…wouldn’t it be worth 5-10 pts a game to have someone who can punish these non-specific sagging defenders by not driving back into them?

(Driving INTO them can be effective if you’re a physical marvel like Paolo who draws fouls at a high rate…also, interestingly, a strong part of Black’s draft profile)

[fendilim]

2018-19 is another comparison year. Vuc's first Allstar year, the year the team returned to the playoffs under Clifford, and we had DJ Augustin as our PG. Vuc took twice as many closely contested shots that season than the following seasons (18% frequency vs 9% under Fultz).

Here's where the numbers and results don't seem to align with results - when Vuc and Paolo had more wide open looks, their teams lost more. Ie, in Fultz' first season in 19-20 Vuc took half as many closely contested shots, but team wins went down. The following season Fultz went down after 8 games, Vuc started taking even fewer closely contested shots - and the team tanked. He went to Chicago, and his team tanked.

It was the same with Paolo to start last season. His numbers were better, but the team's record was tremendously worse. His efficiency may have gone down when Fultz returned, but the team's wins went up. We were 6-5 in February when Paolo had his worst shooting month of his rookie season.

2018-2019 was when we traded for Fultz mid-season.

So I didn’t use that as a comparison because obviously the offense wasn’t ran with Fultz in mind, yet.

Isn’t that the point? Comparing the same team playing with the same makeup but PG alternatives? DJ was a floor spacing PG, but that lead to Vuc taking more highly contested shots. The non-spacing Fultz arrived and the amount of highly contested shots for Vuc halved the next season.

Personally I’m not confident in drawing correlations between the two, and I think other factors were at play more than a simple conclusion of Fultz being a better court presence.

Here’s the stats you’re looking for

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Take note that Vuc shot 50% more 3s in 2019-2020, the first year Fultz played for our team, compared to 2018-2019.

That’s why I don’t think the system comparing pre-Fultz acquisition as a good comparison. Because obviously, you have to tailor your offense with the players that you have. Thus the initial comparison was 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

Vuc shot more inside shots in 2018-2019, during Clifford’s first year because he was surrounded with better shooters. So defenses were closer to him. Fun fact, in the last 11 seasons 2018-2019 was actually our best 3fg% LOL. We’re that bad. In fact, prior to 2021-2022 season, we shot the most 3-point attempts IN FRANCHISE HISTORY during the 2018-2019 season.

2018-2019, Vuc was 6th in the team in 3fga.
2019-2020, Vuc was 3rd in the team
2020-2021, Vuc was 2nd in the team

So yes, there was a change in the offense upon the arrival of Fultz. Thus 2019-2020 and 2020-21 is a better comparison.

[Bensational]

Here’s the stats you’re looking for

Read on Twitter

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Take note that Vuc shot 50% more 3s in 2019-2020, the first year Fultz played for our team, compared to 2018-2019.

That’s why I don’t think the system comparing pre-Fultz acquisition as a good comparison. Because obviously, you have to tailor your offense with the players that you have. Thus the initial comparison was 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

Yeah but your first example for Vuc was a season where Fultz played 8 games and then went down, so I’m not sure the team wouldn’t have adjusted the game plan to the absence of personnel. It’s not like Vuc went back to shooting fewer 3’s once Fultz went down or after he got to Chicago. So that big spike in 3’s is interesting, but I think it has been more an evolution of Vuc’s game than Payton/DJ/Fultz/Lonzo/Caruso/etc.

[fendilim]

Here’s the stats you’re looking for

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=iLAy6FEi9caa6E4C9teZYQ

Take note that Vuc shot 50% more 3s in 2019-2020, the first year Fultz played for our team, compared to 2018-2019.

That’s why I don’t think the system comparing pre-Fultz acquisition as a good comparison. Because obviously, you have to tailor your offense with the players that you have. Thus the initial comparison was 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.

Yeah but your first example for Vuc was a season where Fultz played 8 games and then went down, so I’m not sure the team wouldn’t have adjusted the game plan to the absence of personnel. It’s not like Vuc went back to shooting fewer 3’s once Fultz went down or after he got to Chicago. So that big spike in 3’s is interesting, but I think it has been more an evolution of Vuc’s game than Payton/DJ/Fultz/Lonzo/Caruso/etc.

Exactly why I rely on the frequency percentages than the made % so that we’ll see the totality of the open/wide open shots.

The stats I used under 20-21 was prior to the Bulls trade.

I believe the better case study to begin from is upon the arrival of Fultz because then Clifford would have set the offensive system already. And there were really minimal roster changes during the offseason.

As for the changes in the system midway into the season, that’s entirely possible, but we all know that doesnt happen under a coach like Clifford. Lol who is very rigid up to his rotations.

[Hogified05]

If Markelle is healthy this year he is going flirt with an all-star appearance. He figured it out the last 20-25 games last year, it just click. Full offseason. Book mark this when Barkley is b*tching on tnt about Markelle getting snubbed because Franz and Paolo made it and he didn't

[drsd]

If Markelle is healthy this year he is going flirt with an all-star appearance. He figured it out the last 20-25 games last year, it just click. Full offseason. Book mark this when Barkley is b*tching on tnt about Markelle getting snubbed because Franz and Paolo made it and he didn't

If Fultz "flirts with an all-star appearance", he probably wins MIP.


..

[Skybox]

If Markelle is healthy this year he is going flirt with an all-star appearance. He figured it out the last 20-25 games last year, it just click. Full offseason. Book mark this when Barkley is b*tching on tnt about Markelle getting snubbed because Franz and Paolo made it and he didn't

If Fultz "flirts with an all-star appearance", he probably wins MIP.


..

He would have to. It's a fun thing to say...how about we just get out of the bottom 5 starting PGs? There's an element of optimism (if you look hard) in my critiques of Markelle - he can get better, IMO. Maybe even good enough to stay...but that's a long leap from arbitrary homerism. If he scores 19 or 20ppg, maintains close to his high efficiency and fantastic ballhandling in the mid-post, adds at least one more apg and makes 2 3pt shots per game...he'll have my vote. That player would also allow for a guy like Suggs to play big minutes at SG without the same pressure to create a lot of offense...hopefully, he does continue to improve his offense but he's presently best suited next to a scoring PG. That's a really nice picture.

The easiest way for Markelle to get 5 more pts per game would be to turn two of his made 2's into 3's and to draw more fouls on his powerful drives. It could definitely happen...but there's got to be a basis for anointing him.

[jonbob17]

I have to say some of the doom and gloom, around here has me terrified that the Magic are going to be baited into offering Fultz a long term contract and it's going to negatively impact the future roster build and development of this team.

At the same time, i just have a feeling that Fultz is going to destroy expectations. I think i drink the kool-aid every offseason with this guy and his shot is finally going to fall...and that you have to have a three ball to be successful in this league....I don't know something just tells me its going to be different this go around, even if he doesnt shoot....

Might be his haircut.

99% chance this ages like milk. Cant believe we are 8 days away from first preseason game

[pepe1991]

First time allstars by numbers from 2000-2021.

Among 61 active allstars from that time frame , average age to become allstar was between 23 and 24.

Average first year of turning into allstar is between 4th and 5th season.



Among all players from that list, 11 out of 61 turned into allstars after playing 6 full seasons prior.

Chances to turn into allstar once you turn 29 are basically zero.
Matter of fact 36/61 allstars were allstars by age of 23.



Fun fact, Kyle Lowry is only nba player in history to not be allstar for 9 years, than be allstar for 6 years straight. Show how "star out of nowhere" is apsolute outliner, not *rule*.
Only close to this is Billups. That's why Lowry/ Billups comparisons are in 99,9998% cases grasping for straws.


If Magic have allstar this year, it will be Franz of Banchero.

PG alone competition for allstars on East are : Jrue, Garland, Lillard, Harden, Lamelo Ball, Haliburton and Trae Young.
Last year's allstar list of East only had 3 point guards. Kyrie (gone), Haliburton and Jrue.

Matter of fact allstar game among guards is so elite on east that last year Jimmy Butler, Harden , Garland and Burnson didn't make it to allstar game.
it's not hard to see all this and come to only logical conclusion: Fultz won't be allstar, you can bet your family on it.

For sake of argument, Jalen Brunson averaged 24-6-3,5 on 60% TS and didn't make it. And he was best player on 47 wins team. And all that wasn't enough.

[eyriq]

First time allstars by numbers from 2000-2021.

Among 61 active allstars from that time frame , average age to become allstar was between 23 and 24.

Average first year of turning into allstar is between 4th and 5th season.



Among all players from that list, 11 out of 61 turned into allstars after playing 6 full seasons prior.

Chances to turn into allstar once you turn 29 are basically zero.
Matter of fact 36/61 allstars were allstars by age of 23.



Fun fact, Kyle Lowry is only nba player in history to not be allstar for 9 years, than be allstar for 6 years straight. Show how "star out of nowhere" is apsolute outliner, not *rule*.
Only close to this is Billups. That's why Lowry/ Billups comparisons are in 99,9998% cases grasping for straws.


If Magic have allstar this year, it will be Franz of Banchero.

PG alone competition for allstars on East are : Jrue, Garland, Lillard, Harden, Lamelo Ball, Haliburton and Trae Young.
Last year's allstar list of East only had 3 point guards. Kyrie (gone), Haliburton and Jrue.

Matter of fact allstar game among guards is so elite on east that last year Jimmy Butler, Harden , Garland and Burnson didn't make it to allstar game.
it's not hard to see all this and come to only logical conclusion: Fultz won't be allstar, you can bet your family on it.

For sake of argument, Jalen Brunson averaged 24-6-3,5 on 60% TS and didn't make it. And he was best player on 47 wins team. And all that wasn't enough.

Great analysis! Fultz making the all star team would be such an extreme event.

[VFX]

I have to say some of the doom and gloom, around here has me terrified that the Magic are going to be baited into offering Fultz a long term contract and it's going to negatively impact the future roster build and development of this team.

At the same time, i just have a feeling that Fultz is going to destroy expectations. I think i drink the kool-aid every offseason with this guy and his shot is finally going to fall...and that you have to have a three ball to be successful in this league....I don't know something just tells me its going to be different this go around, even if he doesnt shoot....

Might be his haircut.

99% chance this ages like milk. Cant believe we are 8 days away from first preseason game

I'm actually betting that he does considering how much is actually on the line for him.

The haircut should indicate he's "very serious" this season - lol. His statements at the end of last season and everything up to now makes me like him even less. It's like "oh now it's serious for you when you have a huge amount of money on the line huh". It's just blatantly transparent compared to guys like Cole and Suggs that have been focused and vocal since day 1 of being in Orlando.

If Anthony Black was never selected I would be rooting for Fultz. I just dont see a scenario where paying him a large contract and his skillset makes more sense than investing in AB with a longer timeframe and less money tied up.

[Skin]

His dimes are a thing of beauty. Penny-esque

[jonbob17]

I have to say some of the doom and gloom, around here has me terrified that the Magic are going to be baited into offering Fultz a long term contract and it's going to negatively impact the future roster build and development of this team.

At the same time, i just have a feeling that Fultz is going to destroy expectations. I think i drink the kool-aid every offseason with this guy and his shot is finally going to fall...and that you have to have a three ball to be successful in this league....I don't know something just tells me its going to be different this go around, even if he doesnt shoot....

Might be his haircut.

99% chance this ages like milk. Cant believe we are 8 days away from first preseason game

I'm actually betting that he does considering how much is actually on the line for him.

The haircut should indicate he's "very serious" this season - lol. His statements at the end of last season and everything up to now makes me like him even less. It's like "oh now it's serious for you when you have a huge amount of money on the line huh". It's just blatantly transparent compared to guys like Cole and Suggs that have been focused and vocal since day 1 of being in Orlando.

If Anthony Black was never selected I would be rooting for Fultz. I just dont see a scenario where paying him a large contract and his skillset makes more sense than investing in AB with a longer timeframe and less money tied up.

I mean the motivation is truly a thing with Fultz...absolutely balls out against Washington.
I am all in on the Anthony Black experience. The notion of huge Markelle contract, and worse blocking minutes for Suggs and Black. It's scary...At the same time every contract in the league is tradeable...and as long as we don't over pay he will have value, or we could do a sign and trade because contenders very rarely have space...or he could be a deadline deal....his bird rights will have a lot of value, should he perform.

In my ideal world Black and Suggs are splitting PG minutes, Isaac is 2019 Isaac and getting 15 minutes a game, the Franz, Paolo, and WCJ are all getting better, and the other two wings are getting good experience.

It's hard to know what to make of Fultz. I think we have to look back to his last contract. The FO was hedging/betting on a breakout. Thery're kind of in the same position again...doesn't seem like they are going to make that bet this time...of course there are still a few weeks...I am letting him play it out and if he goes bonkers we can make the decision later.

[Rainwater]

Isn’t it kinda obvious this will be his last season as a magic? The magic didn’t extended his contract like they did Franz or Paolo. They drafted Black who plays the same position. The magic have an insane amount of guards. I know he has been injured the last six years (honestly that should be more reason to trade him) but there hasn’t been any radical improvement/development. He is a good role player that is best suited surrounded by shooters which is definitely not the magic. Isn’t the writing kinda on the wall that he will be gone? Unless he has an all star type season season in his 7th year, which rarely happens, or settles for a bench role I can’t see how it is not.