2011 Mavericks vs 2019 Raptors

[Djoker]

Who wins the series between them?

[Colbinii]

2019 Raptors. They are one of the stronger non-Durant Warriors teams of the past 20 years. Lowry + Kawhi played at > 10+ Net Rtg in the Post-Season.

Most importantly, they have excellent interior defense in Ibaka/Gasol which helps immensely against the Dirk-led team.

[tsherkin]

It depends, really.

Do they play like they actually did in the 2011 playoffs, where every time Dallas needed it, the roleplayers came through by playing well above their heads? Tight D, good spacing, Dirk going HAM. That's hard to overcome, and why they won the title.

Statistically, Dallas was a 109.7 ORTG and 105.0 DRTG team. So that was +2.4 on offense and a -2.3 defense. They were taking 21.6 3PA/g (3rd-highest 3PAr in the league), but were ultimately unimpressive and non-dominant in the RS. They were the 8th-ranked O, but they didn't draw fouls super well, they were only 11th in 3P%, they turned it over a fair bit despite Dirk, they blew chunks on the offensive glass. But they were the best in the league beneath the arc, they crushed the defensive glass and didn't foul much. They had a pretty nasty defensive lineup, and guys always seemed to get it done when it mattered in the playoffs.

Flash forward, 2019. Toronto's a +2.7 offense at 113.1, and a -3.3 defense at 107.1.

Kawhi, Lowry, good overall spacing. They were even better under the arc than Dallas, and a much better 3pt shooting team only like 50% higher volume.

It's hard to pick Dallas here. There isn't a matchup they could exploit in the same way they did with Lebron in this one, so it's unlikely they would enjoy that sort of alleviated pressure in this series. Kawhi would eat them alive worse than Wade did and the rest of the team would do acceptably well or better, even if Danny Green crapped himself as he did much of the 2019 playoffs.

Gotta go with Toronto, even though I don't want to bet against Dirk and that nasty one-legged fade.

[AEnigma]

In absolute: Raptors obviously.

Relative to what they were in their respective years: still inclined toward the Raptors, but this is where you have a better case based on how the Mavericks played, where their supporting cast was more consistent (Green/Ibaka/Marc were all cold, Lowry and VanVleet were cold half the time) and their chief scorer was in the midst of the best stretch of his career. Kawhi was transcendent against the 76ers, but he was visibly struggling more as the postseason went on.

[parsnips33]

How would Siakam do on Dirk? How much do you think they'd go to Kawhi on Dirk if at all?

[tsherkin]

How would Siakam do on Dirk? How much do you think they'd go to Kawhi on Dirk if at all?

I struggle to think that he would do well on Dirk because his major advantage is athleticism, which 2011 Dirk wasn't working at odds with. He'd just put his back to you and hit that one-legged fade, or move around screens and such until he was free. Or set a high screen and be in that action, and it was all mostly just automatic while his J was going. Siakam is long and athletic, and that's great, but he can't really contest Dirk's shot with the way he was able to carve out space AND that high release, right?

EDIT: And as an aside, Kawhi... he has nothing. He's the kind of defender who gave Dirk trouble from 05-07, but explicitly not thereafter.

[Texas Chuck]

I don't understand how people can look at how that actual 2011 Dallas team played with Dirk(look at their record without him) over that entire season and then how well they executed throughout the playoffs and immediately conclude oh yeah the Raps got them.

Maybe they are paper favorites. But no chance that veteran team with that coaching staff and Dirk at the absolute peak of his powers is a gimmee series for that Raptors team. Just zero chance of that.

Funny how sure some of you are. Couldn't be me.

[dirkforpres]

Sorry, but the 2019 Raps wouldnt even beat the 2011 Heat. Mavs would for sure win

[Texas Chuck]

How would Siakam do on Dirk? How much do you think they'd go to Kawhi on Dirk if at all?

I think on paper they are both really good Dirk options. The problem is we've seen even better on paper options essentially have no answer for Dirk. Once he got the high post game to go with the PNR game and he became such a decisive passer what can you do? You can't double him, especially not in 2011 because that was the best ball movement team outside of San Antonio with plenty of shooters. And you can't single him, cuz well he eats elite defenders alive.

I think Siakam has to do the job because they need Kawhi too much on offense. But in closing moments? I'm telling Kawhi he's got the job. And feeling as good as one realistically can.

It's like Kidd, Marion, DeShawn for Kawhi. On paper that's three legit options. In reality, its no better than Siakam/Kawhi on Dirk. They can make him work, and having fresh bodies and guys with no fear helps. But Kawhi is just too good.

[One_and_Done]

The Raptors would spank the Mavs in 4 games probably. It would be brutal.

[tsherkin]

I don't understand how people can look at how that actual 2011 Dallas team played with Dirk(look at their record without him) over that entire season and then how well they executed throughout the playoffs and immediately conclude oh yeah the Raps got them.

Maybe they are paper favorites. But no chance that veteran team with that coaching staff and Dirk at the absolute peak of his powers is a gimmee series for that Raptors team. Just zero chance of that.

Funny how sure some of you are. Couldn't be me.

This is sort of why I phrased my post the way I did in the beginning. 2011 postseason, basically every time Dallas needed something... Terry was there. JJ Barea was there. Tyson Chandler was there. The D was there. Kidd. Even Zombie Peja.

So there was a certain je ne sais quoi about that team, to borrow a cliche, that was quite similar to the 94 Rockets in some ways.

Now, objectively, they didn't have anything like Toronto's offense, they didn't have the same kind of in with a superstar like they seemed to with Lebron wilting in that series, they didn't leverage the 3 like a modern team and Toronto was a really, really good defense. So as you say, on paper, for sure.

[Texas Chuck]

Now, objectively, they didn't have anything like Toronto's offense, they didn't have the same kind of in with a superstar like they seemed to with Lebron wilting in that series, they didn't leverage the 3 like a modern team and Toronto was a really, really good defense. So as you say, on paper, for sure.

When is this series being played? Because Rick Carlisle is certainly leveraging the 3 in 2019 (or later) and Toronto isn't in 2011. That's one of the issues with time machine analysis. We give the more modern team strategic advantages they would never actually have if the game was actually able to be played.

And sure Dallas benefited from Lebron's struggles--though I'm the only one who ever points out look at how bad Lebron was in the RS meetings against Dallas as well. It wasn't just Lebron overwhelmed and checked out. Dallas had the best plan the league had ever seen for him and the right pieces to make that work.

And set aside the Finals. Look how they handled the Lakers and Thunder with ease. This was a legit team, prepared to deal with legit superstars, and multiple ones at the same time. They did it 3 series in a row.

[scrabbarista]

I've said before: that Raps team was a juggernaut. I'm taking them over many teams better than 2011 Dallas.

But it's a fair point that Dallas wasn't really an "on paper" team who seemed to get "more than the most" out of its very considerable talent.

[tsherkin]

When is this series being played? Because Rick Carlisle is certainly leveraging the 3 in 2019 (or later) and Toronto isn't in 2011. That's one of the issues with time machine analysis. We give the more modern team strategic advantages they would never actually have if the game was actually able to be played.

Yep, the perpetual trouble with cross-time comparisons, for sure.

And sure Dallas benefited from Lebron's struggles--though I'm the only one who ever points out look at how bad Lebron was in the RS meetings against Dallas as well. It wasn't just Lebron overwhelmed and checked out. Dallas had the best plan the league had ever seen for him and the right pieces to make that work.

And set aside the Finals. Look how they handled the Lakers and Thunder with ease. This was a legit team, prepared to deal with legit superstars, and multiple ones at the same time. They did it 3 series in a row.

They were very good, yes. Their D was consistently excellent, and their offense came through as required. Lebron needed to, entertainingly enough, pull a Dirk and figure out how they were managing him on D. He was also fairly passive, while again, Wade was absolutely tearing them a new hole. Bosh was trash on O that series, and the D significantly contributed to that.

Kobe was older and played at only about -3% relative to his regular season TS%, which was well within his normal drop-off range. 51.9% vs Dallas, 54.8% in the RS. Not a particularly good showing, but not atypical or especially egregious for him, particularly in his later years. I'll say this: Dallas did a good job of warding Kobe away from the rim and he didn't have the explosiveness Wade did, so it worked out very well. He was already worsening notably at getting to the basket that RS and in those playoffs, but Dallas also did a good job of protecting the paint.

Durant actually did pretty well against them. He was +2.4% TS versus playoff league average at 55.3% while scoring 28 ppg and keeping his turnovers in check. Westbrook was horrific, but even in his best seasons, he wasn't really a high-end scorer. Harden didn't have the possessions to make a difference, but he wasn't checked well either.

That said, Durant STARTED strong and then faded pretty hard over the back three games and he also had issues with Marion and similar defenders for a while. And then with Chandler waiting at the rim, so there's that too.

[Texas Chuck]

Oh and so I'm crystal clear in light of my defense of the little Mavs-- I think the 2019 Raptors were a hell of a team. I'm certainly not picking the Mavericks to beat them. I have no idea how to pick a winner. Both teams were deep with quality veterans. Both teams had top notch coaching staffs and both teams had a legit superstar to carry them.

So much respect for Kawhi and Siakam and Gasol and Green and Kyle freaking Lowry and VanVleet. I mean as top 6's go that's tough as hell.

Just like scab put it so perfectly--I just think that Dallas team is a greater than the sum of its parts team. And when you play well over a 60 win pace with Dirk in the RS and then blow through the tough West like that before taking down a team with arguably 2 of the best 3 players in the world....you aren't likely to be a cakewalk for any team.

[Colbinii]

The thing to remember is like the 2011 Mavericks, the 2019 Raptors were an absolute menace when healthy. The team adding Gasol put them from "Contender" to "Clear Title Favorite" by SRS [A bit revisionist of history, but look at the On/Off stuff and just how great they became once they added Gasol]. Hell, even the trio of Lowry/Kawhi/Green played at a > 14+ Net Rating in nearly 1000 minutes together during the season.

The team is a match-up nightmare for Dallas because of two bigs who can shoot. The Lakers tried to employ 2 bigs, but that was Gasol/Bynum with an aging 36 year old Fisher at the POA. Compare that Lakers team to the 2019 Raptors:

Kawhi > Kobe
Lowry > Fisher [Not close]
Pau >= Marc
Ibaka > Bynum
Siakam = Odom [Siakam the better defensive piece]
Green > MWP
FVV > Blake
Powell = Shannon Brown

Like, these teams aren't even remotely close, which actually goes to show how loaded the 2019 Raptors are [and, when looking at the league as a whole, how much better 2019 NBA Basketball was compared to 2011].

You want to see something interesting? Gasol/Kobe played at just a +9 level in the RS and +2.7 in the PS. Butler/Embiid played at a +25 level in the PS and +8 level in the RS.

[ShotCreator]

How would Siakam do on Dirk? How much do you think they'd go to Kawhi on Dirk if at all?

I think on paper they are both really good Dirk options. The problem is we've seen even better on paper options essentially have no answer for Dirk. Once he got the high post game to go with the PNR game and he became such a decisive passer what can you do? You can't double him, especially not in 2011 because that was the best ball movement team outside of San Antonio with plenty of shooters. And you can't single him, cuz well he eats elite defenders alive.

I think Siakam has to do the job because they need Kawhi too much on offense. But in closing moments? I'm telling Kawhi he's got the job. And feeling as good as one realistically can.

It's like Kidd, Marion, DeShawn for Kawhi. On paper that's three legit options. In reality, its no better than Siakam/Kawhi on Dirk. They can make him work, and having fresh bodies and guys with no fear helps. But Kawhi is just too good.

Eh, Siakam was vanilla defensively, I mean good, but not even close to the freakiness you would need to contain Dirk with the post-up polish he gained.

And Kawhi was injured by the second round of the playoffs. He was getting burned in the Finals limping on one leg.


Gasol largely anchored that D.

Lowry is better than any non-Dirk player on the Mavericks and Kawhi was really, really good at times that playoff run. I'm not nearly as high on that run as his playing level in 17, but it's an 11 Dirk-ish level of play IMO. If he's injured as he was in the FInals he's probably clearly worse so it's dependent.

But Toronto is probably too good due to Lowry's extra boost. He's the difference IMO. I played DFS that playoff run, and in any pivotal game of those playoffs, Lowry mentally made sure he'd up his game in the big ones. Especially against GS and Milwaukee.

It'd be plenty competitive though. Toronto didn't dominate GS w/o Durant or Milwaukee to say nothing of the Sixers. They mostly just edged those teams out in really scary, close games. Getting into late 4th Quarter toss up games with a possible peak Dirk is a recipe for disaster, so again who knows how it'd actually play out. They are out-talented due to Lowry though.

[Djoker]

I made this thread to see what people think but I got the Raptors in 6 games. Offensively both teams had a superstar and good role players that can hit shots but the Raptors' defense was definitely a level above.

[ronnymac2]

This is actually a good series, but I definitely see Dallas taking it. I don't see Toronto's defensive style doing well with the Mavericks running those Nowitzki/Terry pick-n-pops. There are so many actions Dallas can get into out of that play. Ultimately, the Raptors don't have what it takes to lower Nowitzki's USG%.

Miami did the best of any team to slow Dallas, and they had essentially a B+ or A- level roster to slow Dallas and corral Dirk (familiar defender in Haslem, lithe interior defenders in Bosh and Anthony, and big active wings in Wade/James), yet they still didn't really affect the Maverick offense to any meaningful degree.

Now the only question is on the other side. It's not like TOR was some best-in-class offensive team that year. They were good, not great. I see Kidd, Marion, and Stevenson doing an excellent job of either lowering Leonard's USG% or his efficiency, especially with Chandler backing them up. I doubt the Ibaka/Gasol duo is playable together in this series, but even if it is, I think that's fine for Dallas defensively. I think Dallas wins the battle of the boards here as well. Lowry is an absolute dawg and certainly makes this thing competitive. Lowry vs. the Dallas backcourt guys is probably the most must-see matchup.

Also, semi-related but not the reason I am picking Dallas - Nowitzki is clearly the best player in this series and the guy I trust the most. Kawhi Leonard is a very overrated player on this board. He went to a team that didn't need him to be competitive yet had the personnel, identity, and leadership to absorb a great player like Leonard and reform schematically around his primacy. Dirk took on a far larger share of...importance to his team. Certainly on the court, and I subjectively believe off the court as well.

I'm not saying he's not great when healthy, and I'm not indicting his impressive toolbox of basketball skills, but Leonard is the type of guy to look for a way out. I respect NBA mercenaries because they understand the business, but Leonard isn't a mercenary - he's just selfish, and it's clear to me that teammates identify that as well. Juxtapose that with Nowitzki who clearly has the respect of his teammates, particularly that 2011 group, and yeah, Leonard's myriad personality issues are illuminated.

[MyUniBroDavis]

^ now that’s some special level hating rating