2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[MyUniBroDavis]

I don't like this trade for Boston at all, and I say that as somebody who likes Jrue Holiday and thinks very highly of him as a player.

Robert Williams was arguably Boston's most valuable per-possession player in playoff settings over the past two seasons (including a Finals run). That kid is dynamite on defense and still gives you a guy with brain and a motor on the other end. He completed their core really well.

Amazing pickup by Portland. Really impressed by their haul this offseason. I say that as somebody critical of that front office/franchise administration for sitting healthy players at the end of last season.

Rob Williams had injury issues and they got tingis pingis

[The-Power]

I'm less excited for the Bucks here than most I think. If the Bucks could have traded Middleton instead this would have been a clear win, but as is, I worry for their perimeter defense. This has always been something of a weak spot for them, and they've now lost the fulcrum of the perimeter defense for a guy has no such defensive mastery.

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

Not to mention that adding Lillard might allow the Bucks to play a less potent offensive player who specializes in perimeter defense next to him. Those guys can be had – let's see if the Bucks can find one, or maybe they already have one (their recent draft selections certainly lean in the direction of offensively raw perimeter defenders (or defender-hopefuls)).

Whether Giannis and Lopez can carry the defense like they used to, however, is a different question. That's going to be as interesting and relevant to observe as the development on the offensive end as they integrate Lillard.

Funnily enough, I am less confident about the Celtics. Yes, Jrue is awesome – and Porzingis could work out really well, too. But they lost quite a bit of their identity and depth as well. That's a lot of roster turnover for a contending team and whether and how soon it works out remains a question mark, in my opinion. I could see their starting line-up feasting on both ends but it's a gamble. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them struggling to click or, perhaps more likely, running into depth issues over the course of a long season plus the playoffs.

[eminence]

The only thing I don't like about Bostons moves is letting Grant Williams walk.

Smart/Brogdon/Robert Williams for Jrue/Porzingis are deals I'd do all day (and apologies again to Kristaps for thinking he was cooked in Dallas).

[Colbinii]

I'm less excited for the Bucks here than most I think. If the Bucks could have traded Middleton instead this would have been a clear win, but as is, I worry for their perimeter defense. This has always been something of a weak spot for them, and they've now lost the fulcrum of the perimeter defense for a guy has no such defensive mastery.

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

The numbers tell us Jrue+Giannis, Jrue+Lopez and Jrue+Giannis+Lopez are 109-110 defenses while Giannis+Lopez [without Jrue] are 113 defenses.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm less excited for the Bucks here than most I think. If the Bucks could have traded Middleton instead this would have been a clear win, but as is, I worry for their perimeter defense. This has always been something of a weak spot for them, and they've now lost the fulcrum of the perimeter defense for a guy has no such defensive mastery.

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

Not to mention that adding Lillard might allow the Bucks to play a less potent offensive player who specializes in perimeter defense next to him. Those guys can be had – let's see if the Bucks can find one, or maybe they already have one (their recent draft selections certainly lean in the direction of offensively raw perimeter defenders (or defender-hopefuls)).

Whether Giannis and Lopez can carry the defense like they used to, however, is a different question. That's going to be as interesting and relevant to observe as the development on the offensive end as they integrate Lillard.

Funnily enough, I am less confident about the Celtics. Yes, Jrue is awesome – and Porzingis could work out really well, too. But they lost quite a bit of their identity and depth as well. That's a lot of roster turnover for a contending team and whether and how soon it works out remains a question mark, in my opinion. I could see their starting line-up feasting on both ends but it's a gamble. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them struggling to click or, perhaps more likely, running into depth issues over the course of a long season plus the playoffs.

I definitely get the thought that the twin towers of Giannis & Brook are so good defensively they can get away with weak defensive players on the perimeter, but we'll have to see. As I alluded to, defending the 3 has always been a weakness for the Bucks despite the fact they've always had an outstanding defensive guard (Bledsoe then Holiday). How much worse will it get?

Re: Lillard allow Bucks to play a less potent offensive player who specializes in perimeter defense. I get the theory, but of course that's what Holiday was.

I'll point out that the Bucks had 3 big money guys last year - Giannis, Jrue & Khris - and of the 3, Khris Middleton is the guy who is the weakest on defense. Had they traded Middleton for Lillard it would have made sense from a "We're upgrading our best offensive perimeter player while keeping all our to defensive guys". As is they kept their top playoff scorer from last year in Middleton while stripping him of primacy with Dame.

Not saying I think Portland would have accepted Middleton in Holiday's place, but as is, they traded the ideal backcourt teammate for Lillard in order to get Lillard, and so now there are questions.

Re: Boston. Agree it's all a bit gamble. Maybe that's should be KP's nickname, "The Big Gamble".

[Doctor MJ]

I don't like this trade for Boston at all, and I say that as somebody who likes Jrue Holiday and thinks very highly of him as a player.

Robert Williams was arguably Boston's most valuable per-possession player in playoff settings over the past two seasons (including a Finals run). That kid is dynamite on defense and still gives you a guy with brain and a motor on the other end. He completed their core really well.

Amazing pickup by Portland. Really impressed by their haul this offseason. I say that as somebody critical of that front office/franchise administration for sitting healthy players at the end of last season.

I think Rob was out the moment they went for KP. Completely understand not wanting to acquire KP, but once they did that, something like this was probably inevitable.

It's going to be interesting to look back on how the Celtics feel about Rob's journey from DPOY favorite to too-problematic-to-be-in-our-core. Could end up being seen as one of the worst moves in franchise history.

[The-Power]

I'm less excited for the Bucks here than most I think. If the Bucks could have traded Middleton instead this would have been a clear win, but as is, I worry for their perimeter defense. This has always been something of a weak spot for them, and they've now lost the fulcrum of the perimeter defense for a guy has no such defensive mastery.

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

The numbers tell us Jrue+Giannis, Jrue+Lopez and Jrue+Giannis+Lopez are 109-110 defenses while Giannis+Lopez [without Jrue] are 113 defenses.

The numbers also tell us that the Bucks had the best DRTG in the entire league the two seasons before Jrue Holiday arrived.

[Dr Positivity]

Main concern I see for the Celtics is they're now not built for beating Giannis/Embiid/Jokic/Davis. They'd be great for 2018 titans Warriors/Rockets. Maybe if it ends up being Heat or breakout Cavs in ECF and Warriors rematch in finals (Suns have disappointment written all over him, the only thing missing is the poorly aging SI cover like the Nash/Howard Lakers and KG/Pierce Nets)

[Doctor MJ]

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

The numbers tell us Jrue+Giannis, Jrue+Lopez and Jrue+Giannis+Lopez are 109-110 defenses while Giannis+Lopez [without Jrue] are 113 defenses.

The numbers also tell us that the Bucks had the best DRTG in the entire league the two seasons before Jrue Holiday arrived.

1. They had Bledsoe then. Now they a gaping whole where the guard defense was.

2. The Bucks' defense the entire run has been a regular season juggernaut that struggles in the playoffs, and we've seen Holiday excel in the playoffs as a man defender against guards.

[Doctor MJ]

Main concern I see for the Celtics is they're now not built for beating Giannis/Embiid/Jokic/Davis. They'd be great for 2018 titans Warriors/Rockets. Maybe if it ends up being Heat or breakout Cavs in ECF and Warriors rematch in finals (Suns have disappointment written all over him, the only thing missing is the poorly aging SI cover like the Nash/Howard Lakers and KG/Pierce Nets)

I actually think there's a theory in how they've built that fits in the "beating teams with elite bigs" strategy, because of course, they just bet everything on KP. I have major concerns about KP myself though.

[Colbinii]

Let's see. Jrue is an awesome defender but I still believe that the Bucks' defense ultimately depends on how much carrying the Giannis and Lopez duo can still do (and how healthy they are). A strong defensive season from that duo and I'll take the likely offensive improvement all day, especially for the playoffs.

The numbers tell us Jrue+Giannis, Jrue+Lopez and Jrue+Giannis+Lopez are 109-110 defenses while Giannis+Lopez [without Jrue] are 113 defenses.

The numbers also tell us that the Bucks had the best DRTG in the entire league the two seasons before Jrue Holiday arrived.

The years they had 1-2 elite POA defenders in Eric Bledsoe and Donte DiVincenzo [2020, Pre-Injury]?

[Owly]

The only thing I don't like about Bostons moves is letting Grant Williams walk.

Smart/Brogdon/Robert Williams for Jrue/Porzingis are deals I'd do all day (and apologies again to Kristaps for thinking he was cooked in Dallas).

The thing is net out of all of that they've gone from a 9 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out 3 to a 7 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out of 2.

The bigs that went would be 25, 26; the one that's in will be 28.
The guards that went would be 29, 31; the one that's in will be 33 (all ages from Reference).

And both the arrivals are expensive so going from 9 to 7 isn't something that makes them more sustainable long term (haven't looked closely but perhaps one way is to figure G Williams is functionally part of the cost of the trades, not something separate).

I'm not going to say it's a clear loss or whatever ... we don't know health and fit ... but Boston had the best SRS in '22 and looked better after acquiring White. They had it again in '23. And I think they didn't just shake things up but made things less sustainable around a best player going into their age 25 season.

That's before looking and draft equity lost. This feels like a big risk on Boston's part.

[EmpireFalls]

I feel like all the poking holes in Boston and Milwaukee's depth is a bit rich...

first of all, everyone, and I mean everyone, is screwed if their best player goes down. No one can win a title without their best player. So that's just a constant applied to everyone.

Everyone is thin in an area or two. So yes, it's a big health bet on Porzingis/Horford for Boston, and similarly a big health bet on Middleton for Milwaukee.. but if you take away any contender's 3rd best player where they lack depth (let's say Gordon for Denver, Draymond for GSW, etc.) they are very likely screwed as well.

[parsnips33]

Feel like Boston needs a good 3rd big still

[eminence]

The only thing I don't like about Bostons moves is letting Grant Williams walk.

Smart/Brogdon/Robert Williams for Jrue/Porzingis are deals I'd do all day (and apologies again to Kristaps for thinking he was cooked in Dallas).

The thing is net out of all of that they've gone from a 9 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out 3 to a 7 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out of 2.

The bigs that went would be 25, 26; the one that's in will be 28.
The guards that went would be 29, 31; the one that's in will be 33 (all ages from Reference).

And both the arrivals are expensive so going from 9 to 7 isn't something that makes them more sustainable long term (haven't looked closely but perhaps one way is to figure G Williams is functionally part of the cost of the trades, not something separate).

I'm not going to say it's a clear loss or whatever ... we don't know health and fit ... but Boston had the best SRS in '22 and looked better after acquiring White. They had it again in '23. And I think they didn't just shake things up but made things less sustainable around a best player going into their age 25 season.

That's before looking and draft equity lost. This feels like a big risk on Boston's part.

I'm not trying to say Boston hosed everybody, obviously there's a risk/reward ratio. But put simply, Jrue is a lot better than anybody they sent out. If you have a chance to send out some middling starters for a title winning #2 who still looks to be in his late prime, you should do it 99/100.

The Grant thing is arguable either way, and the saving money reasoning is clear, but as a fan I'll usually frown on letting talent walk if they're signing a reasonable deal.

The draft equity overall is relatively minor, 1 future first in the Portland deal, and positive value in the Porzingis deal (moving up from 35 to 25 - they got kind of funky after that, but wound up with Jordan Walsh and four future 2nds).

[Owly]

The only thing I don't like about Bostons moves is letting Grant Williams walk.

Smart/Brogdon/Robert Williams for Jrue/Porzingis are deals I'd do all day (and apologies again to Kristaps for thinking he was cooked in Dallas).

The thing is net out of all of that they've gone from a 9 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out 3 to a 7 man quality rotation with one injury prone "true big" out of 2.

The bigs that went would be 25, 26; the one that's in will be 28.
The guards that went would be 29, 31; the one that's in will be 33 (all ages from Reference).

And both the arrivals are expensive so going from 9 to 7 isn't something that makes them more sustainable long term (haven't looked closely but perhaps one way is to figure G Williams is functionally part of the cost of the trades, not something separate).

I'm not going to say it's a clear loss or whatever ... we don't know health and fit ... but Boston had the best SRS in '22 and looked better after acquiring White. They had it again in '23. And I think they didn't just shake things up but made things less sustainable around a best player going into their age 25 season.

That's before looking and draft equity lost. This feels like a big risk on Boston's part.

I'm not trying to say Boston hosed everybody, obviously there's a risk/reward ratio. But put simply, Jrue is a lot better than anybody they sent out. If you have a chance to send out some middling starters for a title winning #2 who still looks to be in his late prime, you should do it 99/100.

The Grant thing is arguable either way, and the saving money reasoning is clear, but as a fan I'll usually frown on letting talent walk if they're signing a reasonable deal.

The draft equity overall is relatively minor, 1 future first in the Portland deal, and positive value in the Porzingis deal (moving up from 35 to 25 - they got kind of funky after that, but wound up with Jordan Walsh and four future 2nds).

Don't disagree that Jrue has been the best player of those in or out. I was late on the train recognizing it I think but the impact signal RS and playoffs is very strong and hasn't dimmed looking at the raw-on off stuff. He has been superb.

He is entering his 33 season and then you have to make a decision about how you want to pay him into the back end of his 30s. That said this isn't a referendum on him.


I haven't looked closely but haven't seen anything saying the Boston pick has protection. [edit: not that you're saying it has but in this context of concern about long-term picture that makes such an unprotected pick potential more valuable]

I now see 4 big money "assets" and I'm not confident that 3 of the four are smart money to exceed their contract values in the longer term (Brown ... I don't like absolute statements but ... is unlikely to, and the arrivals have semi-star status and have been paid pretty big to this point, have risk via injury and age and with reduced options (via good player consolidation) the team are more likely to get stuck in a "we've got to keep it together ... can't let someone leave for nothing where we can't replace them" trap). I don't know, maybe they get the chip and then everything's great. But I think they've got a very good young centerpiece and made the long term picture messier, tougher (granting I haven't watched them closely, don't know what some of the guys sent out would have asked on their next contracts, don't know how torched Brogdon's relationship with Boston was). And in that light that pick might be throwing away the next guy's asset in a rebuild which as a general "look" (i.e. probably not my problem) I don't love.

I think 99 out of 100 is (substantially) too aggressive and ignores the context in which such a deal is likely to be done (and the picks [think GS is was sent out by Boston] again not mentioned).

They probably are still a dangerous team but given the past two seasons I think I'm seeing less upside than some and more immediately obvious long-term risk (again I don't know the ins and outs of everyone's contracts).

[itsxtray]

The numbers tell us Jrue+Giannis, Jrue+Lopez and Jrue+Giannis+Lopez are 109-110 defenses while Giannis+Lopez [without Jrue] are 113 defenses.

The numbers also tell us that the Bucks had the best DRTG in the entire league the two seasons before Jrue Holiday arrived.

1. They had Bledsoe then. Now they a gaping whole where the guard defense was.

2. The Bucks' defense the entire run has been a regular season juggernaut that struggles in the playoffs, and we've seen Holiday excel in the playoffs as a man defender against guards.

Maybe I'm misinformed but i thought the Bucks have been historic on defense in the playoffs and their offense falls off a cliff. I forgot where i saw it but i thought they were -8.6 relative since the bledsoe years not including this past season.

[parsnips33]

I really need Jimmy Butler to keep the emo look

[itsxtray]

I don't like this trade for Boston at all, and I say that as somebody who likes Jrue Holiday and thinks very highly of him as a player.

Robert Williams was arguably Boston's most valuable per-possession player in playoff settings over the past two seasons (including a Finals run). That kid is dynamite on defense and still gives you a guy with brain and a motor on the other end. He completed their core really well.

Amazing pickup by Portland. Really impressed by their haul this offseason. I say that as somebody critical of that front office/franchise administration for sitting healthy players at the end of last season.

Rob Williams had injury issues and they got tingis pingis

I never even heard of latevia

[eminence]

Didn't mention the GS pick because they acquired it in the deal with Memphis. The net is:

Brogdon/Smart/Williams/Gallo/Muscala/future 1st for Jrue/Porzingis/4 seconds, with letting Grant walk a potential side effect (technically have a ~6 million dollar TPE for that, but they really ought to have just brought back Grant if they're planning on using it).