sunskerr wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:Red flags have always been there, but people want to ignore it as a throwaway comment. I do think if he was closer to a mid- lotto talent, these types of comments would put under a microscope by teams to a much greater extent which would push him further down the 1st round but because he is this talented and has the perfect NBA body, you can overlook some of these red flags and hope he matures out of it.
What would your redraft look like in hindsight?
1 Luka?
2 SGA?
3 Trae
4 JJJ
5 Mikal
That top 5 is imo set FIRMLY in stone. Luka vs SGA is close. My heart (head?) says SGA but people will get mad. Can't put Mikal higher than JJJ and Trae because of his age (27). But below that now we get to where Ayton could be drafted
6 Brunson
7 Simons
8 Ayton
9 Williams III
10 MPJ
11 WCJ
Now this is interesting here. My belief is that Simons is individually a more talented player than Brunson (and Ayton) but just hasn't shown it full time yet. He's a great shot creator, good distributor with a superb 3 ball (averaged 3.0+ 3PG last year). I think this resume makes him inherently more valuable than what Ayton has shown. If Simons doesn't take a leap next year and Ayton does, it reverses. But I think Simons if he breaks out can actually overtake Brunson whereas Ayton probably can't even if he breaks out, which also another reason why Simons is ahead. Also Simons D-EPM is -1.0 which is not good at all but it's not very bad/terrible which suggests he's been maligned unfairly.
That will probably make some people mad but I think it's founded in reality. I'd be interested to hear otherwise. Michael Porter Jr is interesting. Average defender but absolute gun on the wing with 3.0 3PG. But he has quite frankly more scary injury history than even Robert Williams III who I put above him. It's very close though and I feel like you could put either of those two in those 9-10 spots. Heck maybe even an argument for MPJ above Ayton because of the shooting impact - but the injury history is just that bad.
So even Ayton with the 2nd contract talk probably can't fall very far given who is below him.
To be clear, my comment was about if that 2nd contract comment was said by someone with lesser talent than DA and how that would affect their draft stock ahead of the draft. DA's talent was off the charts and that kind of comment is easy to gloss over.
1. LukaIn terms of redrafting, I have Luka firmly at #1. The guy has 4 all-star selections, 4 1st team all-NBA selections and a WCF appearance to his name and he's been in the league for 5 years. Not making a comparison but Lebron/KD are the kinda guys I can think of off the top of my head with that kind of first 5 season achievement since the mid 2000's.
2. SGAI think SGA is a stud and his team has obviously been focused rebuilding, so he hasn't had the kind of success Luka has had but I still think Luka is comfortably ahead of him. I expect big things for SGA this year with another improvement to the OKC roster.
3. BrunsonTrae might be the logical selection here given what he's done on the court and in the playoffs but I'm actually gonna go with a wild selection here. Hear me out. I think Trae and JJJr is more talented, but I put a lot of stock in playoff performances, scoring efficiency and not being a massive liability. He was a playoff stud next to Luka for the Mavs team that got to the WCF's, then had a massive break out season this past season and averaged almost 28ppg in the playoffs for the Knicks while being their best player.
4. TraeAs mentioned, I think he's more talented than JJJ and Brunson and has done more but the question going forward around can you win with a 6ft nothing PG who is a liability on defense and seems to have a bit of an attitude problem is becoming harder and harder to ignore. JJJr doesn't have the kind of liabilities that Trae has but I also don't think JJJr would be as good if he was thrust into the #1 option spot like Trae has been and has embraced. Being the #1 option has its pros and cons. You get more attention, get hyped up by the media and people just know your game more but can also put your game under a microscope. Whereas with JJJr, he's like the 3rd option on a team where the load is almost entirely on Ja and Banes' shoulders. It's easier to not look bad when you're not the #1 option with the media attention on you.
5. JJJrThis is where I think multiple players can have a strong case to be ranked. Mikal, JJJ, Ayton and even MPJ could be there imo. I'll put JJJr here because he is the reigning DPOY, he's a 2x 1st team All-D selection, he is an all-star, his game fits very nicely in the modern NBA being able to defend, switch, shoot 3's and he's just a guy that can fit on most teams in the NBA. He also doesn't have any glaring liabilities. Maybe the foul trouble is problematic, and his creation ability isn't high level, but neither are serious liabilities.
6. MikalNow that we've seen what he looks like as the go-to guy, it's clear he has an all-star game. It's a shame we couldn't tap into that potential, but I will continue to root for the guy wherever he goes (unless it's the Lakers). I love Mikal and he's #1 on my list as my favourite player but this is not what we're talking about here however, while I think he's had a ridiculous break out season last season (and all the other positives), I think you have to give him more time and opportunity to prove it's sustainable. With him, I just need to see more. He has a breakout season of sorts but that was through 27 regular season games and a 4 game sweep in the playoffs. I have high confidence he'll continue to improve his game so I'm comfortable with him at #6 right now.
7. AytonI'll keep it short. I don't think he's a bust but he's far from fulfilling his potential as the #1 pick in a loaded draft. Just doing some half-ass internet research of other 2018 redrafts, none of have him in the top 3 and the highest I've seen is #4 so that probably says enough. He's still a quality player, efficient, good rebounder, low turnover and a low foul C. In the same way Mikal has had a break out with a change in role with the Nets, Ayton could have that with the Blazers although that might be dampened by the fact that they have two guards they are super high on but I wouldn't underestimate what a change in scenery can do for a player.
8. MPJAlways was and will be an injury concern but has #1 pick talent and clearly played a role for a championship team, albeit as their 4th more important player. I have him over Simons simply because he's an NBA champion and can play a role for a championship calibre team.
9. SimonsWhile I like WCJ more I think Simons has a more sought-after NBA skill as a scoring guard. Personally, not a big fan of his because he's a big defensive liability and I don't like the way he plays with blinders on at times but he is closer to being an all-star than WCJ and as you mentioned, he still has further breakout potential.
10. WCJI do like him quite a lot. Shoots 3's, defends, good mobility, solid NBA C but he's #10 for me. I had him above RW3, who I also like but RW3 is a lot closer to a one-dimensional specialist than a more well-rounded player in WCJ