Official Scottie Barnes Thread - Part 6

[Duffman100]

Interesting to see how he looks Sunday. Won't get hyped over preseason results as they mean very little but will give us a glimpse of what he maybe capable of this season.

Really it's just time for no more excuses. Either he looks engaged and takes the leap or he doesn't. But at this point it really is on nobody other than Scottie Barnes.

I'm rooting for him. I still think he has top 15/20 player potential. Just want to see him go get it.

[HiJiNX]

https://youtu.be/Fmm47Xa_IY0?si=WL-3-_TADuc61F9S

Some takeaways:

-he definitely heard the noise about his weaknesses, particularly being disengaged through whole chunks of the game, and has worked on his conditioning as a result
-a lot of emphasis on making the right play for himself or others
-sounds a lot more technical in his knowledge of what’s happening on the court, what to look for, how to attack different play types and coverages

Saying all the right things. Now time to prove it on the court.

EDIT: Smh, I can never embed videos or images properly from my phone.

[canada_dry]

Interesting to see how he looks Sunday. Won't get hyped over preseason results as they mean very little but will give us a glimpse of what he maybe capable of this season.

Really it's just time for no more excuses. Either he looks engaged and takes the leap or he doesn't. But at this point it really is on nobody other than Scottie Barnes.

I'm rooting for him. I still think he has top 15/20 player potential. Just want to see him go get it.

Thats where im at with it. Theres certain things im looking for on both ends, consistent engagement being chief amongst them, and he either shows em or he doesn't. I'm hopeful.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[DemHeavyHands]

https://youtu.be/Fmm47Xa_IY0?si=WL-3-_TADuc61F9S

Some takeaways:

-he definitely heard the noise about his weaknesses, particularly being disengaged through whole chunks of the game, and has worked on his conditioning as a result
-a lot of emphasis on making the right play for himself or others
-sounds a lot more technical in his knowledge of what’s happening on the court, what to look for, how to attack different play types and coverages

Saying all the right things. Now time to prove it on the court.

EDIT: Smh, I can never embed videos or images properly from my phone.

Yeah he’s saying all the right things so far, gotta hope it translates on the court

You gotta like the self awareness/willingness to take criticism. He mentions that he watched a lot of film of himself with his trainer. A lot of ppl here have been on Scottie about switching trainers, but if Scottie is his biggest and main client, then he’ll have the time to really do a deep dive and break down film with him.

If Scottie goes to one of these other “bigger” trainers, he’s not gonna get the same level of attention and dedication. And from what it sounds like, Scottie’s trainer isn’t a yes man, and he’s been keeping it real with Scottie about his weaknesses.

[ForeverTFC]

I think anyone expecting Scottie to shoot 33%+ from 3 is setting themselves up for a lot of disappointment. If he can get back to .300 with the same number of attempts as last year, that would be good.

Scottie's stock is down because of the regression shooting inside the 3pt line last year vs the year before; his 21-22 shooting percentages is what gave everyone hope.

21-22
<8 feet: 61.5%
8-16 feet: 40.3%
16-24 feet: 36.9%
24+: 30.1

22-23
<8 feet: 56.9% (minus 460bps)
8-16 feet: 36.3% (minus 400bps)
16-24 feet: 37.2% (plus 30bps)
24+: 28.3 (minus 180 bps)

He's average at the rim and worse than average everywhere else on the court. That's just not going work and is a massive ceiling killer for him.

There are good deal of comps for guys who were not 3 point shooters becoming good 3pt shooters later in their career for certain stretches. But those players are usually good inside the arc and are generally always good free throw shooters. There is very little evidence that someone with below average FG% inside the line and an average to below average FT% ends up becoming a good shooter. So it's critical that Scottie shows last year was actually the outlier and what he showed in the first year is the right base for his trajectory. What I'm really focused on with his shooting next season is his %s up to 16 feet and the free throw line. I still think the handle is the key to Scottie becoming a franchise player, not the 3 pt shot.

[Son Goku 25]

I mentioned my concern about Scotties conditioning and glad coach D and Scottie himself acknowledges it. I think what was holding him back was really his stamina and handles. I think his shot will come and be at least respectable just like Demar but I expect it to be better.

[TheAlchemist23]

Attacking the rim

Read on Twitter

[tsherkin]

I think anyone expecting Scottie to shoot 33%+ from 3 is setting themselves up for a lot of disappointment. If he can get back to .300 with the same number of attempts as last year, that would be good.

Scottie's stock is down because of the regression shooting inside the 3pt line last year vs the year before; his 21-22 shooting percentages is what gave everyone hope.

21-22
<8 feet: 61.5%
8-16 feet: 40.3%
16-24 feet: 36.9%
24+: 30.1

22-23
<8 feet: 56.9% (minus 460bps)
8-16 feet: 36.3% (minus 400bps)
16-24 feet: 37.2% (plus 30bps)
24+: 28.3 (minus 180 bps)

He's average at the rim and worse than average everywhere else on the court. That's just not going work and is a massive ceiling killer for him.

There are good deal of comps for guys who were not 3 point shooters becoming good 3pt shooters later in their career for certain stretches. But those players are usually good inside the arc and are generally always good free throw shooters. There is very little evidence that someone with below average FG% inside the line and an average to below average FT% ends up becoming a good shooter. So it's critical that Scottie shows last year was actually the outlier and what he showed in the first year is the right base for his trajectory. What I'm really focused on with his shooting next season is his %s up to 16 feet and the free throw line. I still think the handle is the key to Scottie becoming a franchise player, not the 3 pt shot.

Some food for thought on that front.

Code: Select all

League average by distance, per b-ref:

0-3   : 70.1
3-10  : 45.4
10-16 : 44.7
16-3P : 41.4
3P    : 36.1

Scottie in 21-22 (FG% / proportion of FGA):

12.6 FGA/g

0-3   : 71.1 / 26.4 (62 dunks)
3-10  : 50.2 / 32.5
10-16 : 39.8 / 11.6
16-3P : 37.8 / 8.8
3P    : 30.1 / 20.7 (%3PA corner 28.0, 3P% corner 37.0)

29.4% on left corner 3s, 37.5% on right corner 3s. 27.9% on above-break 3s.  4 half-court heaves with 1 make.
73.5% FT on 2.9 FTA/g
.231 FTr

13.2 FGA/g
Scottie in 22-23:

0-3   : 68.7 / 27.7 (83 dunks)
3-10  : 44.8 / 32.1
10-16 : 29.7 / .099
16-3P : 36.9 / .083
3P    : 28.1 / .220 (%3PA corner 33.9, 3P% corner 31.6)

41.9% on left corner 3s, 23.9% on right corner 3s. 26.8% on above-break 3s. 4 halfcourt heaves with 0 makes.
77.2% FT on 3.2 FTA/g
.242 FTr


So... no palpable improvement above the break. Sample pretty small on the corner 3s (approx 1.0 3PA/g there vs 1.8 above break), so there's a lot of noise and it obviously swaps left to right from 22 to 23.

Well below average on long 2s both seasons, basically well below average beyond 10 feet in both seasons. Nothing exciting to report there, so minute variation from 22 to 23 is somewhat irrelevant. How much we care about "well below average" on something like 2 FGA/g from 10 feet out to the 3pt line is a matter of discussion, of course, but there's no meaningful difference between those two seasons to report. Below average FTr, slightly below average FT%.





I think this year can be looked at independently. There was no meaningful variation from his first to second season in terms of his perimeter shooting, just in terms of his touch in and around the paint and out of the RA. This year is a whole new opportunity for him.

[MoMan24]

https://youtu.be/Fmm47Xa_IY0?si=WL-3-_TADuc61F9S

Some takeaways:

-he definitely heard the noise about his weaknesses, particularly being disengaged through whole chunks of the game, and has worked on his conditioning as a result
-a lot of emphasis on making the right play for himself or others
-sounds a lot more technical in his knowledge of what’s happening on the court, what to look for, how to attack different play types and coverages

Saying all the right things. Now time to prove it on the court.

EDIT: Smh, I can never embed videos or images properly from my phone.

Yeah he’s saying all the right things so far, gotta hope it translates on the court

You gotta like the self awareness/willingness to take criticism. He mentions that he watched a lot of film of himself with his trainer. A lot of ppl here have been on Scottie about switching trainers, but if Scottie is his biggest and main client, then he’ll have the time to really do a deep dive and break down film with him.

If Scottie goes to one of these other “bigger” trainers, he’s not gonna get the same level of attention and dedication. And from what it sounds like, Scottie’s trainer isn’t a yes man, and he’s been keeping it real with Scottie about his weaknesses.

For someone who is labeled as immature he looks inward when things aren't going well and praises the team for his success. Compared to other 'leaders' who never take accountability, deflect blame to younger players, and go on media tours to explain their poor play. Scottie is already a better leader simply due to accountability. Without the ability to say 'I'm sorry' or 'I was wrong' or 'I need to be better' you will NEVER be able to lead anyone anywhere. Main reason the season fell off track and could never be put back on the rails last season.

[ForeverTFC]

I think anyone expecting Scottie to shoot 33%+ from 3 is setting themselves up for a lot of disappointment. If he can get back to .300 with the same number of attempts as last year, that would be good.

Scottie's stock is down because of the regression shooting inside the 3pt line last year vs the year before; his 21-22 shooting percentages is what gave everyone hope.

21-22
<8 feet: 61.5%
8-16 feet: 40.3%
16-24 feet: 36.9%
24+: 30.1

22-23
<8 feet: 56.9% (minus 460bps)
8-16 feet: 36.3% (minus 400bps)
16-24 feet: 37.2% (plus 30bps)
24+: 28.3 (minus 180 bps)

He's average at the rim and worse than average everywhere else on the court. That's just not going work and is a massive ceiling killer for him.

There are good deal of comps for guys who were not 3 point shooters becoming good 3pt shooters later in their career for certain stretches. But those players are usually good inside the arc and are generally always good free throw shooters. There is very little evidence that someone with below average FG% inside the line and an average to below average FT% ends up becoming a good shooter. So it's critical that Scottie shows last year was actually the outlier and what he showed in the first year is the right base for his trajectory. What I'm really focused on with his shooting next season is his %s up to 16 feet and the free throw line. I still think the handle is the key to Scottie becoming a franchise player, not the 3 pt shot.

Some food for thought on that front.

Code: Select all

League average by distance, per b-ref:

0-3   : 70.1
3-10  : 45.4
10-16 : 44.7
16-3P : 41.4
3P    : 36.1

Scottie in 21-22 (FG% / proportion of FGA):

12.6 FGA/g

0-3   : 71.1 / 26.4 (62 dunks)
3-10  : 50.2 / 32.5
10-16 : 39.8 / 11.6
16-3P : 37.8 / 8.8
3P    : 30.1 / 20.7 (%3PA corner 28.0, 3P% corner 37.0)

29.4% on left corner 3s, 37.5% on right corner 3s. 27.9% on above-break 3s.  4 half-court heaves with 1 make.
73.5% FT on 2.9 FTA/g
.231 FTr

13.2 FGA/g
Scottie in 22-23:

0-3   : 68.7 / 27.7 (83 dunks)
3-10  : 44.8 / 32.1
10-16 : 29.7 / .099
16-3P : 36.9 / .083
3P    : 28.1 / .220 (%3PA corner 33.9, 3P% corner 31.6)

41.9% on left corner 3s, 23.9% on right corner 3s. 26.8% on above-break 3s. 4 halfcourt heaves with 0 makes.
77.2% FT on 3.2 FTA/g
.242 FTr


So... no palpable improvement above the break. Sample pretty small on the corner 3s (approx 1.0 3PA/g there vs 1.8 above break), so there's a lot of noise and it obviously swaps left to right from 22 to 23.

Well below average on long 2s both seasons, basically well below average beyond 10 feet in both seasons. Nothing exciting to report there, so minute variation from 22 to 23 is somewhat irrelevant. How much we care about "well below average" on something like 2 FGA/g from 10 feet out to the 3pt line is a matter of discussion, of course, but there's no meaningful difference between those two seasons to report. Below average FTr, slightly below average FT%.





I think this year can be looked at independently. There was no meaningful variation from his first to second season in terms of his perimeter shooting, just in terms of his touch in and around the paint and out of the RA. This year is a whole new opportunity for him.

Yeah, my bad if I insinuated that he was good in the mid-range in 21-22. My point was the downward movement <16 feet (which based on the breakdowns you provided really is 3-16 feet) from an already average/below average base was concerning. I won't be upset if the 3pt% and the long 2 doesn't show meaningful improvement but 16 feet and in, he has to show a step change to warrant the upside talk for him. Do you feel differently and am I too focused on the drop in FG% there?

[tsherkin]

Yeah, my bad if I insinuated that he was good in the mid-range in 21-22. My point was the downward movement <16 feet (which based on the breakdowns you provided really is 3-16 feet) from an already average/below average base was concerning. I won't be upset if the 3pt% and the long 2 doesn't show meaningful improvement but 16 feet and in, he has to show a step change to warrant the upside talk for him. Do you feel differently and am I too focused on the drop in FG% there?

No bad, I was just adding some extra information. Kind of looks like variance with me. He didn't shoot much, and his proportion of shots from that 10+ feet out to the 3pt line is pretty limited, so there's loads and loads of noise there as far as looking at movement from season to season, above and beyond that it's just two seasons' worth of data.

The 3pt shooting is going to be important. The shot from 10-16 feet is also going to be important, but we'll see. He has to get better at basically every part of scoring before we start narrowing down on any individual component. He just needs to get better at scoring. From anywhere he tries to do it. Even the two spots where he's close to average, he needs to improve because he needs a competitive advantage that makes it worth funneling possessions through him.

EDIT: We'll see what another off-season and 2 seasons under his belt have done for him once the season starts up, I guess.

[Kinger95]

Dude has absolutely zero value on the perimeter. Literally can’t shoot better that 33% from 3 wide open. And that translates to if you can shoot Better than 49% from 2 you shouldn’t be shooting 3’s. He needs to watch a ton of Chris Webber , the kings were an absolute powerhouse with him back in the day and the only reason they didn’t win multiple championships was because of shaq and Kobe. I don’t understand why he can’t play the 4 and run a ton of stuff through him at the elbow and in the blocks

[WaltFrazier]

Attacking the rim

Read on Twitter

It's settled, he's going to be everything we need

[tsherkin]

Dude has absolutely zero value on the perimeter. Literally can’t shoot better that 33% from 3 wide open. And that translates to if you can shoot Better than 49% from 2 you shouldn’t be shooting 3’s. He needs to watch a ton of Chris Webber , the kings were an absolute powerhouse with him back in the day and the only reason they didn’t win multiple championships was because of shaq and Kobe. I don’t understand why he can’t play the 4 and run a ton of stuff through him at the elbow and in the blocks

No, no he really doesn't need to watch any Chris Webber. He needs to completely ignore Chris Webber, because Webber shot way too much and used all the wrong types of scoring possessions. And also had a jumper.

Maybe he can watch Golden State Webber, but that's it. Not Kings Webber.

[tsherkin]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

[mtcan]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

He's the best backup point guard we will have had since Fred was a backup. That says something...

[tsherkin]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

He's the best backup point guard we will have had since Fred was a backup. That says something...

You aren't wrong, but what it says isn't amazing.

[WaltFrazier]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

You're late to the party in another way. Google who was the best player and leader on the FIBA tournament championship team this summer

[tsherkin]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

You're late to the party in another way. Google who was the best player and leader on the FIBA tournament championship team this summer

I couldn't possibly care less about FIBA, nor do I in any way expect that to translate to the NBA. Schroder a decade of NBA ball behind him, and his performance in the NBA is all that matters to the Raptors. He's gonna be another of this below-average-efficiency guys who can defend that Masai has been accruing and that's going to be a problem. I said this elsewhere, but we were the 3rd-worst team in the league at 2FG% and 3FG% (and thus also at eFG%) last year. We were technically ranked 11th in ORTG, but that's basically due to offensive rebounding and avoiding turnovers. Those are good things, but our guys suck at making shots and at scoring efficiently, and Schroder isn't going to help with that. He's actually WORSE in that regard than FVV, typically.

[Mikistan]

So, late to the party, I realize we have Dennis Schroeder on the team. He's... not very good at scoring. In fact, he's worse than FVV. He's also been a net negative on O for a lot of his career. He'll move the ball for us, but he's baaaaaawlz at scoring and basically every indicator you can imagine shows him as a slight negative on O.

I'm not sure that's a good use of our money as I reflect on this.

You're late to the party in another way. Google who was the best player and leader on the FIBA tournament championship team this summer

I couldn't possibly care less about FIBA, nor do I in any way expect that to translate to the NBA. Schroder a decade of NBA ball behind him, and his performance in the NBA is all that matters to the Raptors. He's gonna be another of this below-average-efficiency guys who can defend that Masai has been accruing and that's going to be a problem. I said this elsewhere, but we were the 3rd-worst team in the league at 2FG% and 3FG% (and thus also at eFG%) last year. We were technically ranked 11th in ORTG, but that's basically due to offensive rebounding and avoiding turnovers. Those are good things, but our guys suck at making shots and at scoring efficiently, and Schroder isn't going to help with that. He's actually WORSE in that regard than FVV, typically.

The past, while being a good input most of the time, is not always a great indicator of what will occur in the future