Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[Catledge]

What if Fultz is a decent PG and whatif Isaac is a top-10 defender statistically? Well: Orlando makes the play-ins if not the playoffs. I can;t look beyond that. Let's just enjoy what looks to be an uplifting (and fun) season. Next season is a long way off.

This is by far the wisest thing you have ever said. And I often agree with you.

[VFX]

Some of you are severely underrating what a player like Smart brings to the defensive identity to a team like Boston. Offensively, they have a lot of playmakers that can hit shots. What players like Suggs and Smart bring to a team isn’t something that you can argue away by posting a stat line.

That’s like saying Jordan Poole or Monte Ellis are better than Tony Allen or Gary Payton.

[Fortune Teller]

My win prediction is 38. Last year was 28-30 i belive, not 100% sure , so, if i missed margin by 4 last year, if same repeats itself, it would mean we win 42 games. Fingers crossed!

As of today I would say 38 +/- 5. And the homer in me says the Magic will be healthier than predicted and land on a 41-41 season.

I won't make a final prediction until after the pre-season games though. One prediction based on the clips of training camp: Black won't get very many minutes early in the season.

As to last season, I saw anywhere from 35-to-38 wins. So the 34 wins was almost on target. (( games 80-82 were embarrassing for the Magic though, after the heart breaking loss in game 79 ))

Game 80 starters: Suggs/Houstan/Bol/Okeke/M-Wagner
Game 81 starters: Fultz/Anthony/Suggs/F-Wagner/Bitadze
Game 82 starters: Fultz/Suggs/Houstan/F-Wagner/Carter

And all three were double-digit losses.

I'm going with 35 wins. The X factor is how good can Paolo be? If he makes a significant leap, that is really the only way I see the team improving much in the win column. Internal growth of mediocre players does not improve shooting, and the front office just flat-out refused to address any of the team's weaknesses this off-season. They continue to go all-in on a roster that can't shoot the three-ball.

[Residual-Heat]

38-42 wins is what I expect. Yeah 3pt shooting will still be a problem. I just hope we shoot a better 3pt % than opponents shoot against us.

[HighPack]

42-40.

[Knightro]

I would say anywhere from 35 on the low end to 44 wins on the high end is possible.

That's a somewhat comically wide range, but I could see either end of that spectrum.

[basketballRob]

We aren't a perfect team, so I'll say between 73-76 wins.

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[JBSouthpaw]

My win prediction is 38. Last year was 28-30 i belive, not 100% sure , so, if i missed margin by 4 last year, if same repeats itself, it would mean we win 42 games. Fingers crossed!

As of today I would say 38 +/- 5. And the homer in me says the Magic will be healthier than predicted and land on a 41-41 season.

I won't make a final prediction until after the pre-season games though. One prediction based on the clips of training camp: Black won't get very many minutes early in the season.

As to last season, I saw anywhere from 35-to-38 wins. So the 34 wins was almost on target. (( games 80-82 were embarrassing for the Magic though, after the heart breaking loss in game 79 ))

Game 80 starters: Suggs/Houstan/Bol/Okeke/M-Wagner
Game 81 starters: Fultz/Anthony/Suggs/F-Wagner/Bitadze
Game 82 starters: Fultz/Suggs/Houstan/F-Wagner/Carter

And all three were double-digit losses.

I'm going with 35 wins. The X factor is how good can Paolo be? If he makes a significant leap, that is really the only way I see the team improving much in the win column. Internal growth of mediocre players does not improve shooting, and the front office just flat-out refused to address any of the team's weaknesses this off-season. They continue to go all-in on a roster that can't shoot the three-ball.

I think there are more than 1 "X" factor, PB is one of them, but 1st:
I disagree with your "internal growth of mediocre players does not improve shooting" That is what exactly happens. That is what happened last year to this year, players got better (Cole, Suggs, Fultz, Franz, WCJ). This is a big "X" factor.

Other "X" factor is sustained health. JI, Suggs, Fultz, WCJ these guys being available for 60+ games each.

[eyriq]

With a healthy Isaac and three point shooting Fultz I think we make the 6th seed.

[Skybox]

With a healthy Isaac and three point shooting Fultz I think we make the 6th seed.

That sounds great...Markelle have a brother?

[pepe1991]

Some of you are severely underrating what a player like Smart brings to the defensive identity to a team like Boston. Offensively, they have a lot of playmakers that can hit shots. What players like Suggs and Smart bring to a team isn’t something that you can argue away by posting a stat line.

That’s like saying Jordan Poole or Monte Ellis are better than Tony Allen or Gary Payton.

Or you severely overrate defensvie guards who are negative contributors on offense?


Marcus Smart net rating through years:
2022-23- 9th on a team
2021-22- 10th on a team
2020-21: 7th on a team
2019-20 - 7th on a team
2018-19- 12th on a team
2016-17- 5th on a team
2015-16 -12th on a team


I've spent some time reading Celtics fans opinions on Smart and most of them simply come to conclusion that he forced himself into "leader" but best players never raelly bought into that role because he simply was never good enough basketball player to lead them.
Doesn't help his case that he is 29 and already on decline.

And also they all agree that his biggest problem is that he isn't talened enough to be point guard, and simply can't shoot for shooting guard, so pairing him with another guards is nightmare. Off ball he goes through streaches where he can't shoot for months, and at PG he is simply unrealiable.

Here's interesting nugget : Marcus Smart this year in regular season was 84th percentile pick&roll player. In playoffs 22th.
Last year in regular season 22th percentile in regualr season, 30th in playoffs
Year before 70th in regular season- 30th in playoffs.

Do i even need to elaborate on this? Celtics offense dies off in playoffs under him and in regular season sometimes it sucks, sometimes it works, but it never works in playoffs.

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LarBrd33
·
4 mo. ago
He was overrated as both a player and a leader, tbh. Borderline starter. He's just been here for years and had intangibles/winning plays, but he was also inconsistent and unreliable on offense with regressing defense. The "heart and soul" thing was always kinda myth making. Some of the most immature teams we've had happened with Smart as the "heart and soul".


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Hell, they dedicataed whole thread on reddit about him and his overrated "impact" and "leadership".
https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/14go825/is_it_possible_that_marcus_smart_was_underrated/ Feel free to look yourself.

btw Poole was way better on his championship team than Allen on his. Allen was 12th man in rotation on Celtics and wasn't in rotation in playoffs ( hence, 11/26 games he was DNP-CD guy) . When finals rolled, only one player played less than him. Glan Davis

[eyriq]

With a healthy Isaac and three point shooting Fultz I think we make the 6th seed.

That sounds great...Markelle have a brother?

Hahahaha

[Skybox]

I got us at 40 wins and the play-in, hopefully with some good momentum later in the season (again-but without the horrible start). I think we could be greatly improved with Isaac, Ingles, rooks and, I hope, U of W Fultz...my concern is only that other teams have the same realistic expectations of improvement...the East is deep and powerful again. The only alleged "pushovers" are WAS, who has a lot of offensive firepower in Poole and Kuzma- so they always have a puncher's chance of winning. The rest of the bottom of the East (including us) are a ton of question marks and assumptions...CHA, DET, IND all have reason to expect improvement. Somebody among CHI, TOR, ATL has to really collapse for us to make a meaningful jump. 40 is an optimistic number and depends on good health and reasonable improvements throughout.

[Catledge]

I think the most obvious likely area for improvement will be Paolo going from year one to year two.

The second most likely area of improvement IMO is Franz going from year two to year three.

The fun thing is that there are a ton of other little things to hope for on top of the two big ones.

[Bensational]

For me, building a strong defensive identity is what helps a young team jump up into serious playoff fighting faster. I really want to see WCJ, Suggs, Fultz, and Isaac push/inspire the others to greater things. It’ll make swapping players out easier once the team has more of an identity around Paolo and Franz.

It’s interesting because I don’t feel the team is in any way a serious contender, but in spite of that I’m still excited to see how well they’ll go. I’m very comfortable with this growth phase for the team, and it’s rare for me to think this big picture and patiently on something I’m passionate about.

[drsd]

For me, building a strong defensive identity is what helps a young team jump up into serious playoff fighting faster. I really want to see WCJ, Suggs, Fultz, and Isaac push/inspire the others to greater things. It’ll make swapping players out easier once the team has more of an identity around Paolo and Franz.

It’s interesting because I don’t feel the team is in any way a serious contender, but in spite of that I’m still excited to see how well they’ll go. I’m very comfortable with this growth phase for the team, and it’s rare for me to think this big picture and patiently on something I’m passionate about.

The difference between preaching and teaching is that preaching is primarily geared toward life-change while teaching is primarily aimed at transferring knowledge.

[Furinkazan]

82 wins

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Listening to the new Pod Squad episode I am getting so excited for this team. They said how elite Suggs defense was that AB couldn’t do anything against Suggs and coach had to stop the play to ask someone to help AB get away from Suggs. It just hit me, what happens if the majority of our guys take a leap this season? Excitement for sure.

[Howard Mass]

I'm predicting 40-46 wins and the 6th seed.

This season feels different.

[Skybox]

For me, building a strong defensive identity is what helps a young team jump up into serious playoff fighting faster. I really want to see WCJ, Suggs, Fultz, and Isaac push/inspire the others to greater things. It’ll make swapping players out easier once the team has more of an identity around Paolo and Franz.

It’s interesting because I don’t feel the team is in any way a serious contender, but in spite of that I’m still excited to see how well they’ll go. I’m very comfortable with this growth phase for the team, and it’s rare for me to think this big picture and patiently on something I’m passionate about.

And…we just happen to have guys that can do that. Suggs, Isaac, and (projected) Black ALL could be truly elite defenders. Paolo & Cole are the only ones that could be considered sub-par and that might even be an exaggeration (especially in a rookie’s case). Mose came in as a defensive-minded coach too

…this is also why the bulk of my trade ideas welcome an offensive difference-maker, even if a limited defender.