Official Scottie Barnes Thread - Part 6

[will]

Rep Freddy V til they bury me!

[tsherkin]

Well coaches (rightfully) should base strategic decisions on longer term empirical evidence rather than what is happening in real time (unless there are impairments like injuries, personnel etc etc). It was reasonable to assume fvv would break out of his slump he just never did. Yes perhaps nurse should pivoted but i cant really blame him for assuming fred would revert to the mean. They therefore continued to rely on him in that role basically out of necessity.

Yeah, I mean, I'm with some of that. I don't think Nurse is the specific culprit. Nurse has been the coach since the title season, and Fred had been shooting quite well for his whole career until last season. And yes, for a while, it would have been sensible to put some faith into the idea that he'd break out of the slump. And lo, in March, he did for a short while, but you have to look at that and wonder. We know he shot well from above the break in 2022. He did not in 2021, and also shot like stank from the corners. He did in 2020 and was acceptable in 2019. He's actually been fairly inconsistent from there. He shot better when he was taking a higher proportion of 3s from the corners, to no one's surprise.

Yeah, you have it right. Gary's % was higher but he's less of a threat to improve the offense because defenses are at an advantage by making him pass off or put it on the floor above the break. Fred's low %s don't mean the defense adjusts enough to completely concede that shot. For the same reason Jayson Tatum drove a significant chunk of offense despite just as weak numbers as Fred from those spots. At one point people were calling last year's Celtics the best offense of all time. Teams will just see the guys that can hurt them the most and put the bulk of their attention on them to try and prevent them from going off.

Yes, that's why I was talking about initiation and such, because even a BAD shooter can have a different magnitude of effect if he can apply pressure off the dribble with isos and PnR action. Trent is not a dynamic player, just a shooter. And lately, he hasn't been good from the corners either, but EXPLICITLY effective above the break. FVV definitely provides a different look from there even when he isn't hitting, which I'm sure is what others are driving at (pardon the pun). But yeah, his end-efficacy in 2023 specifically was quite low, though that isn't really revelatory because we sucked so hard we pulled lungs out of buttholes on offense, but for our ball protection and offensive rebounding. We were playing 01 Sixers ball, in essence. Just, you know, without the defensive backing. And, over an entire season, horrible shooting with good possession control will get you middling offense on average, to be fair. Not against a good D, not in crunch time, but it will average out to a non-terrible offense across the breadth of a whole season, as it did for us.

Anyway, the point of my remark was more that FVV's threat was limp in 2023. He never made teams pay. His impact stats were similar to Siakam's, which mostly means "lots of box score volume, not huge positive value, but reasonably better than neutral."

As you say, teams will look at the primary driver and try to stop them. And when you have a fairly glaring single point of attack, that will derail your whole offense... unless that guy isn't working to begin with, in which case, it's some of a "six of one, half a dozen of the other" kind of game.

Tatum, of course, was a considerably better offensive player than FVV in ways far beyond volume 3pt shooting, so that comparison goes only so far.

[SkywalkerAC]

This is exactly it. A guy who is determined to be great can be defeated by no obstacle. Good point and one I've made before about Scottie.

Yeah, I get sick of the "holding back his development" narrative. Challenges and tough times are learning experiences that force development, as long as the individual is up to the challenge. Who's to say Scottie isn't a better player this year because of the the difficulties last year? FVV may have hindered Scottie's performance last year, but development doesn't really work like that (as long as you're getting on the court, getting decent usage, etc).

He was holding him back though.. Tossing up bricks and not letting him get reps running the team.. That's why everyone hated the guy he was trying to get the bag and not playing team ball even Masai said it.. It's not excuses it's just FACTS. Nick Nurse let it happen and there's not much anyone could do about it other than trade him which they should have done for a bag of chips and pop.

Sure, fine, but who's to say earning his lumps didn't toughen him up. It's not like he wasn't getting on the court and getting touches. Sure you can develop getting everything gifted to you on a silver platter but you can also develop via the school of hard knocks, or somewhere in between as I'd say the case was with Scottie.

Did Fred help to create the perfect developmental environment, definitely not. But he probably didn't 100% ruin it either.

[Mikistan]

"hard knocks" "pay your dues"

Aka more talented players being forced to defer to worse talent because of seniority. Ok Boomer

[SkywalkerAC]

"hard knocks" "pay your dues"

Aka more talented players being forced to defer to worse talent because of seniority. Ok Boomer

Haha, I'm an elder millenial dammit!

It's just a pet peeve of my the idea that learning and development is supposed to be easy. It's almost almost the most difficult challenges that humans remember and learn the most from.

[ATLTimekeeper]

"hard knocks" "pay your dues"

Aka more talented players being forced to defer to worse talent because of seniority. Ok Boomer

Haha, I'm an elder millenial dammit!

It's just a pet peeve of my the idea that learning and development is supposed to be easy. It's almost almost the most difficult challenges that humans remember and learn the most from.

In Scottie's case he was less talented then the guys ahead of him. He was a better passer, but a much worse shooter and ballhandler, so getting to spots where his passing could positively impact the team was best accomplished by others drawing attention away from him. It wasn't even hard knocks. It was what was best for him and the team.

[PushDaRock]

People still bringing up FVV, and also not understanding he was often the only 3p thread above the break in a dysfunctional offence, in the year of our lord 2023. I bet these ppl will still be doing it 10 years from now

But he wasn't, though, that's the thing.

He shot 33.1% above the break in 2023. He was a threat the year before at 36.7%. In 2023, only Lebron, Max Strus and Kyle Kuzma shot WORSE above the break on 5+ 3PA/g from above the break, for what it's worth.

He has previously been a threat from there, but he was horrifically bad last year.

FVV's deep range was supposed to allow for better spacing and it was why Barnes had the ball in his hands a lot more at the start of the season. It didn't work out that way though as both players noticeably struggled in their respective roles and FVV didn't start playing better till he got the ball back in his hands again.

[KP730]

the team is almost the same as last year without Fred

all this stuff about Fred having no impact on Scottie’s game - well, great thing is we get to see what the results look like this year, now won’t we?

[will]

the team is almost the same as last year without Fred

all this stuff about Fred having no impact on Scottie’s game - well, great thing is we get to see what the results look like this year, now won’t we?

You are goddamn spot on with that sentence.

[TheAlchemist23]

the team is almost the same as last year without Fred

all this stuff about Fred having no impact on Scottie’s game - well, great thing is we get to see what the results look like this year, now won’t we?

They'll just say Scottie got better independently rather than admit how deleterious FVV's impact was.

[Madvillainy2004]

"hard knocks" "pay your dues"

Aka more talented players being forced to defer to worse talent because of seniority. Ok Boomer

Haha, I'm an elder millenial dammit!

It's just a pet peeve of my the idea that learning and development is supposed to be easy. It's almost almost the most difficult challenges that humans remember and learn the most from.

In Scottie's case he was less talented then the guys ahead of him. He was a better passer, but a much worse shooter and ballhandler, so getting to spots where his passing could positively impact the team was best accomplished by others drawing attention away from him. It wasn't even hard knocks. It was what was best for him and the team.

He had a 52% TS% and had multiple months of play that was sub 50% which considering his shot diet is atrocious scoring. Other than just force feeding him touches for the sake of it I'm not sure what people wanted out of scottie last year. He was pretty awful scoring the ball last year.

[will]

Haha, I'm an elder millenial dammit!

It's just a pet peeve of my the idea that learning and development is supposed to be easy. It's almost almost the most difficult challenges that humans remember and learn the most from.

In Scottie's case he was less talented then the guys ahead of him. He was a better passer, but a much worse shooter and ballhandler, so getting to spots where his passing could positively impact the team was best accomplished by others drawing attention away from him. It wasn't even hard knocks. It was what was best for him and the team.

He had a 52% TS% and had multiple months of play that was sub 50% which considering his shot diet is atrocious scoring. Other than just force feeding him touches for the sake of it I'm not sure what people wanted out of scottie last year. He was pretty awful scoring the ball last year.

You know how it goes when you attempt to open the door when there is a door stop on the other side of the door.

[tdotrep2]

you could clearly see last game, we were pushing the tempo needed someone to create and the guys (dennis) looked to scottie and he delivered. Last season that wasn't happening with fred, we walked the ball up and he dribbled for 13 seconds until we did anything. I don't wanna hear, woaaoow scottie got some much better! He's been capable of doing what he's gonna do this year.

[tsherkin]

He had a 52% TS% and had multiple months of play that was sub 50% which considering his shot diet is atrocious scoring. Other than just force feeding him touches for the sake of it I'm not sure what people wanted out of scottie last year. He was pretty awful scoring the ball last year.

He's young and hasn't had a shot to speak of. He has the physical tools and seems to have a good attitude, so it's worth affording him a LITTLE latitude. He's still both young and on his rookie contract. There is the chance he improves with time, after all.

FVV's deep range was supposed to allow for better spacing and it was why Barnes had the ball in his hands a lot more at the start of the season. It didn't work out that way though as both players noticeably struggled in their respective roles and FVV didn't start playing better till he got the ball back in his hands again.

Yeah. He was trash all year aside from March, basically, and it did us no favors because we had no other real quality except for a pair of spot-up shooters. That was troublesome.

[Madvillainy2004]

you could clearly see last game, we were pushing the tempo needed someone to create and the guys (dennis) looked to scottie and he delivered. Last season that wasn't happening with fred, we walked the ball up and he dribbled for 13 seconds until we did anything. I don't wanna hear, woaaoow scottie got some much better! He's been capable of doing what he's gonna do this year.

He played 12 games last year without Fred and shot 39% from the floor. He had chances to create last year and he just couldn't.

[will]

you could clearly see last game, we were pushing the tempo needed someone to create and the guys (dennis) looked to scottie and he delivered. Last season that wasn't happening with fred, we walked the ball up and he dribbled for 13 seconds until we did anything. I don't wanna hear, woaaoow scottie got some much better! He's been capable of doing what he's gonna do this year.

He played 12 games last year without Fred and shot 39% from the floor. He had chances to create last year and he just couldn't.

Who was finishing?

[tsherkin]

Who was finishing?

Anunoby and Trent, though obviously they had limitations in how they contributed.

[Reeko]

you could clearly see last game, we were pushing the tempo needed someone to create and the guys (dennis) looked to scottie and he delivered. Last season that wasn't happening with fred, we walked the ball up and he dribbled for 13 seconds until we did anything. I don't wanna hear, woaaoow scottie got some much better! He's been capable of doing what he's gonna do this year.

He played 12 games last year without Fred and shot 39% from the floor. He had chances to create last year and he just couldn't.

So we're going to use that small sample size without Fred and determine that that's how he would have performed all year if he was handed the keys? And why is that some sort of indication that we were better off with Fred running the show? Fred actually shot 39% from the field for the whole season.

[Tha Cynic]

Everything both ways is so black and white in here always.

1) Scottie Barnes could have been more aggressive last season
2) FVV and he had issues and Barnes didn't want to create conflict so he played a role
3) Barnes didn't feel comfortable in an offense where everyone had to be aggressive and attack without much ball movement

All of this could be true.

One thing is clear - so far Barnes does seem more relaxed and comfortable. He also seems to be taking on more of a vocal leadership role. There is no doubt having someone like FVV could have kept him uncomfortable with rubbing people the wrong way by trying to be a leader.

[Madvillainy2004]

you could clearly see last game, we were pushing the tempo needed someone to create and the guys (dennis) looked to scottie and he delivered. Last season that wasn't happening with fred, we walked the ball up and he dribbled for 13 seconds until we did anything. I don't wanna hear, woaaoow scottie got some much better! He's been capable of doing what he's gonna do this year.

He played 12 games last year without Fred and shot 39% from the floor. He had chances to create last year and he just couldn't.

So we're going to use that small sample size without Fred and determine that that's how he would have performed all year if he was handed the keys? And why is that some sort of indication that we were better off with Fred running the show? Fred actually shot 39% from the field for the whole season.

What kind of creation could last year's Scottie Barnes do? He couldn't score effectively at all from anywhere. And Scottie's 39% is worst because he doesn't shoot any 3s. Fred had a 54% TS and Scotties was 52% and was worst when Fred didn't play. Now if you're saying you wanted to force feed him touches and have him average like 19 8 on 48 TS% that's fine. But no increase in usage would've led to a more effective offense.

Edit: I'll add some of Scottie's play-type stats for context.

PnR Ball Handler: 0.69 PPP 18th Percentile

Post-Up: 0.89 PPP 33rd Percentile

Isolation: 0.81 PPP 32nd Percentile

This combined with his non-existent shooting (32% from Mid-Range and awful 3 point shooting) made it really hard to build an effective offense with him being the lead guard. Other than sheer volume + reps I don't see how more of these possessions for Scottie would've been a more effective offense. Not that Fred was good last year (He wasnt) but Scottie was also pretty terrible in some areas and had some serious warts in his game last year that had nothing to do with Fred/Nurse/Siakam.