Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition

[TimberKat]

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

This is false. This wasn't your typical draft-day trade. The trade report first came down a full week after the draft. Tim drafted him with the intention to keep him, before the trade possibility came about.

I don't mean Ainge asked him to draft Kessler. Regardless of who he drafted, at that point, it's the same trade value for Gobert. If we trade for Kessler for Gobert now, I would expect we include a couple less picks. In that case, I would give him credit for drafting wisely and improve draft value.

[jpatrick]

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

This is false. This wasn't your typical draft-day trade. The trade report first came down a full week after the draft. Tim drafted him with the intention to keep him, before the trade possibility came about.

I don't mean Ainge asked him to draft Kessler. Regardless of who he drafted, at that point, it's the same trade value for Gobert. If we trade for Kessler for Gobert now, I would expect we include a couple less picks. In that case, I would give him credit for drafting wisely and improve draft value.

Kessler definitely helps show Connelly's scouting ability. But if Kessler were traded now for Gobert, the team acquiring Kessler would have to give up picks, as I have no doubts Kessler’s trade value significantly outweighs Gobert’s trade value (when you consider age, contract, and their play last year).

[wolves_89]

I have always believed that to properly develop young players, a team needs to provide each one an opportunity and a role in actual nba games. Whether that develops the player for your later use, or simply to generate value trading him elsewhere, finding minutes is key.

But I honestly feel Josh Minott should be getting minutes this year (and probably Leonard Miller next year), and we simply don’t have opportunities for him. Normally in this situation, our ever-rebuilding team would trade a vet player for future draft picks, that don’t require immediate minutes. However, this year we hope to go deep in the playoffs, so we’re unlikely to make a trade that makes us worse this year. Unless the season goes totally off the rails. I think our great depth and goals will prevent us from adequately developing Minott, and I’m not really sure what the team’s best strategy is.

I don't think we're at a place where the development of Minott, Moore, and Miller is being hurt. At some point this season two or more rotation guys will be out for a few games and these guys will get their chance. It will get interesting if one or more makes a case that they deserve to be in the rotation. In that situation I could see Anderson or Brown being available at the trade deadline (Anderson because he's expiring and could be expensive to resign, plus I'm not sure that he will be as productive as a SF).

[KGdaBom]

That is the way it used to be, but I believe with the investment in the G-league, that development is possible without sacrificing big league minutes. Utilize the Iowa Wolves and ( IDK the protocol on this, if it is OK by league rules) bring up the team and scrimmage with the Big Wolves. Even if they are playing mostly our bench guys ( I can't believe I'm saying this) that should give them some "game time" against the higher caliber talent. We definitely have something we haven't had in a while and that is an abundance of talent.

I hope you’re right. Luka Garza can’t learn anything more dominating G-League players (31-11, 65%/44% last year). But maybe Miller and Minott are different type players, with high athletic upsides that just need any basketball experience? They both sort of spent their last season at that level already.

The other thing that I forgot to mention is that this process can be a profit pump for the Wolves, especially with a great talent evaluator like Tim Connelly at the helm. MIN sells off decent NBA players for profit (more picks), and creates opportunities for younger, cheaper players. As those guys develop and have success against other nba players, they trade them to eager teams for more profit, and continue to bring in young talent. Now, I understand this is much more complicated when your team with some vet stars can legitimately contend (and I think MIN has a shot this year if everything falls right!), but this process serves as a way for a team like MIN to improve the team even without elite free agents walking in the door.

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

I'm 98% confident we drafted Kessler for ourselves. I thought WMJ played quite well Saturday. He may not have been a wasted pick by Connelly.

[Klomp]

I hope you’re right. Luka Garza can’t learn anything more dominating G-League players (31-11, 65%/44% last year). But maybe Miller and Minott are different type players, with high athletic upsides that just need any basketball experience? They both sort of spent their last season at that level already.

The other thing that I forgot to mention is that this process can be a profit pump for the Wolves, especially with a great talent evaluator like Tim Connelly at the helm. MIN sells off decent NBA players for profit (more picks), and creates opportunities for younger, cheaper players. As those guys develop and have success against other nba players, they trade them to eager teams for more profit, and continue to bring in young talent. Now, I understand this is much more complicated when your team with some vet stars can legitimately contend (and I think MIN has a shot this year if everything falls right!), but this process serves as a way for a team like MIN to improve the team even without elite free agents walking in the door.

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

I'm 98% confident we drafted Kessler for ourselves. I thought WMJ played quite well Saturday. He may not have been a wasted pick by Connelly.

People who have already given up on Wendell Moore Jr. are exactly the reason why guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Troy Brown Jr. end up on three teams by the time their rookie deals expire. If it's not immediate stardom, they're thrown to the wayside as garbage.

[Neeva]

I wish Connelly drafted someone other than Wendell (Nembhard was right there and fit a big need!) but oh well, I think eventually Clark will take his place though.

[jpatrick]

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

I'm 98% confident we drafted Kessler for ourselves. I thought WMJ played quite well Saturday. He may not have been a wasted pick by Connelly.

People who have already given up on Wendell Moore Jr. are exactly the reason why guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Troy Brown Jr. end up on three teams by the time their rookie deals expire. If it's not immediate stardom, they're thrown to the wayside as garbage.

I think both NAW/TBJ had shown more flashes than WMJ at similar stages. Because Wendell isn’t a plus athlete, I think he’ll have to become a defensive guard that can really shoot. We’ll see if he can get there.

The guy that I think we’ll be on a second team by the time he splashes is Minott. In summer league and in the first two preseason games haven’t shown the progress I’d hoped for. I think he can be a defensive combo forward like Jerami Grant in Denver (before he went to Detroit to score more). Unfortunately, I think it’ll be, like with Grant, too slow to benefit the team that drafted him.

[TimberKat]

I'm 98% confident we drafted Kessler for ourselves. I thought WMJ played quite well Saturday. He may not have been a wasted pick by Connelly.

People who have already given up on Wendell Moore Jr. are exactly the reason why guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Troy Brown Jr. end up on three teams by the time their rookie deals expire. If it's not immediate stardom, they're thrown to the wayside as garbage.

I think both NAW/TBJ had shown more flashes than WMJ at similar stages. Because Wendell isn’t a plus athlete, I think he’ll have to become a defensive guard that can really shoot. We’ll see if he can get there.

The guy that I think we’ll be on a second team by the time he splashes is Minott. In summer league and in the first two preseason games haven’t shown the progress I’d hoped for. I think he can be a defensive combo forward like Jerami Grant in Denver (before he went to Detroit to score more). Unfortunately, I think it’ll be, like with Grant, too slow to benefit the team that drafted him.

Part of the problem is the free agent system itself. I think you have to make a decision on WMJ for next year before the start of this season. What is the incentive for a team to develop a player but only to have them leave via free agency by the time they are ready to contribute? Minott and WMJ are the 13th or 14th player on a team that is trying to make a playoff run. Do you give up the chance of winning 3 more games to development them? Maybe if the NBA allows free flowing of 11th to 15th player to DLeague. Maybe allow teams to hang-on to players longer, Maybe pay more down at the DLleague so it's truly used to develop players #10 to #15 (essentially make DLeague into a higher quality league).

Otherwise, it is how it works. If a player doesn't fit the team's system, timing, or needs, they are traded or leave as free agent to find a team that fits them. That is what the player union wants. They want the movement freedom but forgot the development opportunities for players.

[andyhop]

It would be nice to see Minott playing real minutes even if it's of the 8 to 10 minutes a game variety by the end of the season, as that would show he is on/ahead of the expected development path.

Think Miller is going to spend most of the year in Iowa and probably needs that given his development deficit.

Garza probably should have tried to get himself a job in Europe as a too good for G League not good enough for rotation minutes in the NBA guy.

[KATKlownFeet]

We may need to open up some roster spots to bring on Clark and our rookies next year. I assume at least one of Minott or Moore are cut for that reason. Not sure if Conley will be back but if not, we will probably sign someone like Monte Morris to take his spot. SloMo, may or may not be back. If he takes a team friendly deal, he's back. If he wants to get paid top dollar, he's probably gone. JMac may or may not be back but if he's gone, there will probably be another point guard brought in.

[Klomp]

We may need to open up some roster spots to bring on Clark and our rookies next year. I assume at least one of Minott or Moore are cut for that reason. Not sure if Conley will be back but if not, we will probably sign someone like Monte Morris to take his spot. SloMo, may or may not be back. If he takes a team friendly deal, he's back. If he wants to get paid top dollar, he's probably gone. JMac may or may not be back but if he's gone, there will probably be another point guard brought in.

First of all, it's important to note that teams rarely bring back everyone that was on the team the previous year. There will be moves made. But as of today, there are three roster spots held by guys who will be UFAs (Conley, Anderson, McLaughlin). Plus a fourth spot currently open.

I wouldn't expect wholesale changes, but I don't expect them to just bring back all three UFAs either. I'm guessing there will be a trade of some sort at the deadline. It probably will seem insignificant, but it will play a role in the future construction of the roster moving forward.

[KATKlownFeet]

We may need to open up some roster spots to bring on Clark and our rookies next year. I assume at least one of Minott or Moore are cut for that reason. Not sure if Conley will be back but if not, we will probably sign someone like Monte Morris to take his spot. SloMo, may or may not be back. If he takes a team friendly deal, he's back. If he wants to get paid top dollar, he's probably gone. JMac may or may not be back but if he's gone, there will probably be another point guard brought in.

First of all, it's important to note that teams rarely bring back everyone that was on the team the previous year. There will be moves made. But as of today, there are three roster spots held by guys who will be UFAs (Conley, Anderson, McLaughlin). Plus a fourth spot currently open.

I wouldn't expect wholesale changes, but I don't expect them to just bring back all three UFAs either. I'm guessing there will be a trade of some sort at the deadline. It probably will seem insignificant, but it will play a role in the future construction of the roster moving forward.

I think Garza will be claiming that 15th spot, if not this year, next year he'll likely be a full roster player. I still think at least one of Minott or Moore are gone by next season, possibly both.

[wolves_89]

We may need to open up some roster spots to bring on Clark and our rookies next year. I assume at least one of Minott or Moore are cut for that reason. Not sure if Conley will be back but if not, we will probably sign someone like Monte Morris to take his spot. SloMo, may or may not be back. If he takes a team friendly deal, he's back. If he wants to get paid top dollar, he's probably gone. JMac may or may not be back but if he's gone, there will probably be another point guard brought in.

I believe Clark signed a 2-year two-way deal, so he's already set. In terms of draft picks, I would guess the Wolves only end up with one guy on the regular 15-man roster. The biggest question for the roster next season is whether the Wolves will be a second apron team. If they are, I think the roster churn will be fairly limited (since the team would only be able to bring in minimum salary players for any open spots).

[KATKlownFeet]

We may need to open up some roster spots to bring on Clark and our rookies next year. I assume at least one of Minott or Moore are cut for that reason. Not sure if Conley will be back but if not, we will probably sign someone like Monte Morris to take his spot. SloMo, may or may not be back. If he takes a team friendly deal, he's back. If he wants to get paid top dollar, he's probably gone. JMac may or may not be back but if he's gone, there will probably be another point guard brought in.

I believe Clark signed a 2-year two-way deal, so he's already set. In terms of draft picks, I would guess the Wolves only end up with one guy on the regular 15-man roster. The biggest question for the roster next season is whether the Wolves will be a second apron team. If they are, I think the roster churn will be fairly limited (since the team would only be able to bring in minimum salary players for any open spots).

I hope they are a second apron team. That means the season went well. If the Wolves don't do well, then I expect some of the expensive core to be moved, most likely KAT.

[younggunsmn]

This is false. This wasn't your typical draft-day trade. The trade report first came down a full week after the draft. Tim drafted him with the intention to keep him, before the trade possibility came about.

I don't mean Ainge asked him to draft Kessler. Regardless of who he drafted, at that point, it's the same trade value for Gobert. If we trade for Kessler for Gobert now, I would expect we include a couple less picks. In that case, I would give him credit for drafting wisely and improve draft value.

Kessler definitely helps show Connelly's scouting ability. But if Kessler were traded now for Gobert, the team acquiring Kessler would have to give up picks, as I have no doubts Kessler’s trade value significantly outweighs Gobert’s trade value (when you consider age, contract, and their play last year).

The team acquiring Kessler would have to give up picks to dump Gobert's contract.
And then several good picks for Kessler. He's already a top 5 player in his draft class.

Would he have gotten the playing time here last year for that leap? Who knows.
But it was a very good draft pick by Connelly, and trading down for him was an even better value.
Too bad he blew the Moore pick and dumped 2 more 2nd rounders to move up 3 spots for him.

[younggunsmn]

Minott is the Vanderbilt of Denver years. I am not sure we will get any value out of Moore JR. Kessler, we drafted for someone else. So, I am still waiting to see some drafting magic for Connelly. Granted he put himself in a very tough situation. Even I could had been a great GM for SAS last year

I'm 98% confident we drafted Kessler for ourselves. I thought WMJ played quite well Saturday. He may not have been a wasted pick by Connelly.

People who have already given up on Wendell Moore Jr. are exactly the reason why guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Troy Brown Jr. end up on three teams by the time their rookie deals expire. If it's not immediate stardom, they're thrown to the wayside as garbage.

Moore was a high floor low ceiling pick at the time, and he hasn't done anything to get off that floor at this point.
Already 22, low athleticism, no real PG skills developed, 2/17 from 3 last year.
Neither he nor Minott has shown any reason they should be sniffing an NBA rotation.
They both have to play their way into our plans at this point as far as I'm concerned. and if we're forced to play them due to injuries they're going to be well below average contributors.

Miller is another story, he has a way higher ceiling both from a physical/athleticism and skill standpoint.

NAW always had the size and athleticism to have intriguing potential, he's finally been able to channel that into a niche as a plus defender, and while his shot still looks a little awkward, it goes in at a good enough rate to be a rotation player.

[Note30]

I don't mean Ainge asked him to draft Kessler. Regardless of who he drafted, at that point, it's the same trade value for Gobert. If we trade for Kessler for Gobert now, I would expect we include a couple less picks. In that case, I would give him credit for drafting wisely and improve draft value.

Kessler definitely helps show Connelly's scouting ability. But if Kessler were traded now for Gobert, the team acquiring Kessler would have to give up picks, as I have no doubts Kessler’s trade value significantly outweighs Gobert’s trade value (when you consider age, contract, and their play last year).

The team acquiring Kessler would have to give up picks to dump Gobert's contract.
And then several good picks for Kessler. He's already a top 5 player in his draft class.

Would he have gotten the playing time here last year for that leap? Who knows.
But it was a very good draft pick by Connelly, and trading down for him was an even better value.
Too bad he blew the Moore pick and dumped 2 more 2nd rounders to move up 3 spots for him.

Assuming the Gobert trade didn't happen, KAT probably still gets injured and then we need a center so yeah he probably would have gotten minutes behind and eventually next to or in front of Naz. Only question would be could he outplay Garza and I'm sure he could have.

No idea what would have happened if the Gobert trade never happened.

[shrink]

I have always believed that to properly develop young players, a team needs to provide each one an opportunity and a role in actual nba games. Whether that develops the player for your later use, or simply to generate value trading him elsewhere, finding minutes is key.

But I honestly feel Josh Minott should be getting minutes this year (and probably Leonard Miller next year), and we simply don’t have opportunities for him. Normally in this situation, our ever-rebuilding team would trade a vet player for future draft picks, that don’t require immediate minutes. However, this year we hope to go deep in the playoffs, so we’re unlikely to make a trade that makes us worse this year. Unless the season goes totally off the rails. I think our great depth and goals will prevent us from adequately developing Minott, and I’m not really sure what the team’s best strategy is.

I don't think we're at a place where the development of Minott, Moore, and Miller is being hurt. At some point this season two or more rotation guys will be out for a few games and these guys will get their chance. It will get interesting if one or more makes a case that they deserve to be in the rotation. In that situation I could see Anderson or Brown being available at the trade deadline (Anderson because he's expiring and could be expensive to resign, plus I'm not sure that he will be as productive as a SF).

I think I’m in the minority, so I’m open to having people enlighten me.

I’m no expert on the G-League, but I do closely follow the trade value of players. Newly selected rookies start losing trade value the day after the draft, when they are “driven off the lot.” I will boldly say that no young player has ever raised his trade value playing in the G-League. In fact, even first round picks that don’t become rotation players within two years of being drafted are often seen as busts or end of bench guys. For example, I doubt we could trade Wendell Moore Jr for a 1st. This is why young players that haven’t hit can often be had for peanuts in the “Second Draft,” and it’s rare for any of these players to ever become a big thing.

Now, I think extreme project players can develop some skills in the G-League, but there are very few success stories. Even fat Naz played 30 games in the NBA in Year One, and 70 in Year Two, and he’s our poster child for growth and development. I don’t see how a polished Luka Garza benefits beating up G-League players, meanwhile struggling to keep up with NBA athletes. He dominated the G-League, and couldn’t even get any of the 30 teams to give him a real NBA contract.

I like Connelly’s draft choices, and I think they can have value, either as players for us or as trade chips. But I think it takes NBA minutes and a role to improve trade value. We need to use those minutes judiciously, to play vets to win, and simultaneously find minutes and roles for the young players to up their value. I just don’t think we have enough minutes for all the talent we have.

[wolves_89]

I have always believed that to properly develop young players, a team needs to provide each one an opportunity and a role in actual nba games. Whether that develops the player for your later use, or simply to generate value trading him elsewhere, finding minutes is key.

But I honestly feel Josh Minott should be getting minutes this year (and probably Leonard Miller next year), and we simply don’t have opportunities for him. Normally in this situation, our ever-rebuilding team would trade a vet player for future draft picks, that don’t require immediate minutes. However, this year we hope to go deep in the playoffs, so we’re unlikely to make a trade that makes us worse this year. Unless the season goes totally off the rails. I think our great depth and goals will prevent us from adequately developing Minott, and I’m not really sure what the team’s best strategy is.

I don't think we're at a place where the development of Minott, Moore, and Miller is being hurt. At some point this season two or more rotation guys will be out for a few games and these guys will get their chance. It will get interesting if one or more makes a case that they deserve to be in the rotation. In that situation I could see Anderson or Brown being available at the trade deadline (Anderson because he's expiring and could be expensive to resign, plus I'm not sure that he will be as productive as a SF).

I think I’m in the minority, so I’m open to having people enlighten me.

I’m no expert on the G-League, but I do closely follow the trade value of players. Newly selected rookies start losing trade value the day after the draft, when they are “driven off the lot.” I will boldly say that no young player has ever raised his trade value playing in the G-League. In fact, even first round picks that don’t become rotation players within two years of being drafted are often seen as busts or end of bench guys. For example, I doubt we could trade Wendell Moore Jr for a 1st. This is why young players that haven’t hit can often be had for peanuts in the “Second Draft,” and it’s rare for any of these players to ever become a big thing.

Now, I think extreme project players can develop some skills in the G-League, but there are very few success stories. Even fat Naz played 30 games in the NBA in Year One, and 70 in Year Two, and he’s our poster child for growth and development. I don’t see how a polished Luka Garza benefits beating up G-League players, meanwhile struggling to keep up with NBA athletes. He dominated the G-League, and couldn’t even get any of the 30 teams to give him a real NBA contract.

I like Connelly’s draft choices, and I think they can have value, either as players for us or as trade chips. But I think it takes NBA minutes and a role to improve trade value. We need to use those minutes judiciously, to play vets to win, and simultaneously find minutes and roles for the young players to up their value. I just don’t think we have enough minutes for all the talent we have.

A couple of additional thoughts on our developmental players. First, all of Moore, Minott, or Miller were late 1st or 2nd round picks that started with very little trade value and likely aren't going to bring back much if moved. I expect their value to the Wolves is far higher than what they could be flipped for. Second, I don't really feel that guys are being hurt developmentally by lack of NBA playing time until it becomes clear that they have proven ready for rotation minutes. I don't see any of Moore, Minott, or Miller currently passing that threshold and on a team with playoff aspirations that means young players aren't going to be gifted minutes (which happened on the majority of the Wolves teams over the past 20 years). My ideal scenario for these guys would be to go back to the g-league and continue getting ready for when injuries give them their chance (which will happen at some point this season).

Garza is a bit of a different situation in that it's pretty clear he doesn't have much to gain from playing in the g-league. His skill level is NBA ready, it's just a question of if he can get to a place where his offensive productivity outweighs his physical limitations. I'd rank Luka as the 12th player (after McLaughlin) on the depth chart and expect him to get some spot minutes dictated by injury or foul trouble to the rotation bigs.

My expectations are that Minott and Miller will get a few chances at the NBA level this season and if they hold their own, they could convince the front office to pencil them into the rotation in 2024-25. I'm less optimistic on Moore and Garza, though I think they can be useful bench pieces. There's a chance they could break into the rotation down the road, but I'd currently bet against it happening.