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So… are we really gonna be THAT bad?

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What are we playing for this year?

Ping Pong Balls… Please put the rose city-colored glasses down.
22
76%
Playin’ for a Play-in
7
24%
 
Total votes: 29

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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#41 » by Goldbum » Sat Oct 14, 2023 6:36 pm

So we know quality rebuilds take about 3 to 5 years. The return we got for Dame moves us a year ahead as finding guys like Ayton/Timelord and (maybe) Toumani take time to find and acquire. Cutting our loses on Nurkic/Keon and Nas helps too. We've been rebuilding for 2 seasons already. So I would say we're starting year 4 of a 5 year plan. We still desperately need forwards. If we get extremely lucky we can flip Matisse/Brogdan into one more core piece (like Eason or D.Hunter) and we'll be kicking in the door to the play in, if not playoffs by the end of next season. Better yet we should be set to stay competitive with our core group for a very long time. I would much rather get a young veteran who's shown to be a pluss level starter then throwing more draft capital at the position.
I mean Murray/Walker/Camara/Rupert have a lot of potential, so I don't know about adding another rookie to that group.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#42 » by JRoy » Sat Oct 14, 2023 6:38 pm

Teams with rookie guards playing a big role rarely do well.

We will win a few close games, lose a bunch more close games and we will end up 25-29 wins and top 5 draft pick.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#43 » by Blazinaway » Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:34 pm

JRoy wrote:Teams with rookie guards playing a big role rarely do well.

We will win a few close games, lose a bunch more close games and we will end up 25-29 wins and top 5 draft pick.


That works for me, and we are one Warrior's injury away from perhaps a pretty good GS pick this year, that's an old team
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#44 » by zzaj » Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:32 pm

I was initially a bit in the “this team could surprise some people” camp. But after a couple of meaningless Preseason games? I have changed my tune.

I think the Blazers are going to honestly compete for the worst record in the NBA. A combo of 19 year old PG, high USG pieces of questionable fit, a (so far) piss-poor head coach, and the dubious in-team future of the pieces in Timelord and Brogdon who might actually make the team better, just seem like too big a gap to beat even the worst teams that have more experience in the talented West.

Again, let the cake bake and let’s have some fun and see what the Blazers ACTUALLY have in Scoot and Sharpe…and how that meshes with Ayton’s natural game.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#45 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:14 am

No way this team makes the playoffs and I would imagine the Blazers will do everything possible not to make a play-in game either. I don't think that will be a problem because the Blazers are gonna blow.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#46 » by zzaj » Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:45 am

Looks like it was an offensive race tonight…interesting that players seemed to thrive with one less mouth to feed in Ayton…but I didn’t watch, so I can’t really comment.

Anybody catch it?
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#47 » by DC_Melo » Sun Oct 15, 2023 2:40 pm

zzaj wrote:Looks like it was an offensive race tonight…interesting that players seemed to thrive with one less mouth to feed in Ayton…but I didn’t watch, so I can’t really comment.

Anybody catch it?


I watched most the game (LP had some network issues so I missed part of the 3rd). I think Ayton’s presence was missed. The Jazz feasted on us inside during the first half when lineups were somewhat regular. We had some odd rotations in the second half, including down the stretch. Our lineup the last several minutes was Scoot plus all our Wing/Forward prospects lol. So a lot of guys got some good burn.

Simons looks great next to Scoot. Seems to accept a more catch and shoot role when scoots running point, and goes more dribble heavy iso when he’s running the second unit. Tonight, he was incredibly efficient in doing both.

Edit: Side note on Simons… from listening to him and his teammates talk in interviews throughout the preseason, it really seems like his embraced carrying the leadership role left behind by Dame. I know he has his flaws as a player, but it’s encouraging to see the young man step up, and I believe it’s having a positive impact on his gameplay. I see why Dame is so high on this kid. His maturity seems to really be progressing nicely.

Grant seems like the odd one out. He had a good game if you look at the box score, but he really goes black hole on offense and ball movement seems to die in his hands. I get what you mean by too many mouths to feed, and I think Grant is that extra mouth too many. I’m hoping we trade him sooner rather than later. If anyone benefited from Deandre’s absence, it was likely Grant. Also, I know it’s preseason but the man has 2 rebounds over the last 50+ minutes of play. 2. His contract is looking worse by the day.

Scoot struggled finding his shots (and left a decent number of open looks short), but it was encouraging seeing him still make and take shots later in the game, especially a fairly clutch 3 with about 2 minutes left that kept us within reach. His 8 assists should have been more… a lot of great passes were ended by missed open looks. One positive I noticed about his game… when the offense stalls or we’re up against the shot clock, in 2-3 seconds, Scoot is still able to put the ball on the floor and draw off a second defender to help whoever he passes to get a little more breathing room for a shot. Great offensive instincts on display, even on an off shooting night.

Toooooooooomani Camara looks like a bonafide stud! He just knows when and where to be, especially on defense. Had an awesome chase down block and I believe the highest +/- (and yes, it really felt like when he was on the floor our team was better). Plus he hit some big shots down the stretch, great shooting night from distance. He might be our next Nico Batum…

Sharpe looked really nice. Had some good plays on defense and absolutely feasted on the midrange game on offense. Dude showed off some really nice footwork too.

All in all, a lot to love about how the team played, especially with Brogdon, Timelord, and Ayton all sitting out. Our deep rotation guys, especially Camara, took advantage of their minutes
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#48 » by m0ng0 » Sun Oct 15, 2023 2:58 pm

I really think we should trade Brogdon and Grant as soon as a good deal comes up.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#49 » by DC_Melo » Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:27 pm

m0ng0 wrote:I really think we should trade Brogdon and Grant as soon as a good deal comes up.


I’m with you on Grant. We’ll see if anything changes, but he really appears to be hunting his own shots outside the scheme of the offense. I don’t like how he fits with the youngsters, he’s the worst rebounding 4 in the league (ok, I didn’t look that up but he has to be… right?), and a guy that seeks to get his own isn’t exactly the veteran influence I want around the team.

Brogdon, however, can really help our young guards learn the game better, provides good quality rotation minutes, and has a strong reputation as a positive looker room presence. He’s a consummate pro by every account, and exactly the kind of veteran that anyone would want around this young roster. Im of the belief his value to the growth of the team exceeds the value he would return on a trade.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#50 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:51 pm

Yeah after the first look I am having trouble getting too excited here, I think this looks like we are shaping up to be a fairly poor team. Ayton and Grant are good at getting up shots but are definitely "get me the ball" type guys. Not saying they are black holes but maybe quasars, too much iso and predictability when they get the ball. If we can be decent it will start with those two going above and beyond defensively and I am not holding my breath, I think they want to feast offensively instead. Speaking of feasting offensively, Simons can probably go get whatever shot anytime he wants when he is on the court but the question for him is what does he contribute beyond that. Between those three looking for shots it might be hard for many other players to shine, one might even hope that Portland is pumping them up and has them on the trading block waiting for the right offer to come in and is giving them a long leash to do so because the fit long-term just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Scoot looks about what you can expect. 19 years old and a rookie, but strong and fast. He will make mistakes but if this is his baseline, probably the worst he will ever look at this level, well then he will have a really long career. Shooting and defense are two things that a player can really improve on with time and his ceiling is so high if he adds those. Still a rookie PG and that is a tall order for winning very much, but he has that ability to always be involved in what is happening on the court that makes me really excited to see him grow as a player.

Sharpe, so many tools but gets lost in the shuffle. Unlike many players I actually think a year forcing him to be "the guy" and chucking up a bunch of shots would be a good thing for him. I get flashes of Brandon Roy sometimes with the smooth midrange game. But oh my god his energy on defense is atrocious. So lazy, gives up and avoids being in plays way too often. The only time he tries is one on one when he might get embarrassed if he doesn't. He is one of those players that needs a fire lit under his butt, he needs to understand that the team will lose if he doesn't give 100% of what he has on both ends because he has that gear to do it but is hesitant and over-thinks it.

Camera and Walker look like solid role players. Love hidden gems like those two. Never going to be stars but the type who fill out a rotation night after night. Brogdon looks like a really nice veteran guard, I heard Andre Miller comparisons and I can see that. I hope to get a bit of Williams here soon because I love that type of player but I am scared to put too much hope into him with his injury history. And in terms of vets, Thybulle is the kind of 3&D wing that every team wants. Mays looks like a fine backup PG and Murray looks solid.

Some solid down rotation type pieces but the top end just doesn't click for me. Add a top 10 player to this roster and maybe you have something but obviously that isn't something you can just do and the team seems to be betting on internal development. The Ayton/Grant/Ant combo is just a rough one, monopolizing a ton of usage without that translating into very many wins, we need to be shopping them.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#51 » by m0ng0 » Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:52 pm

DC_Melo wrote:
m0ng0 wrote:I really think we should trade Brogdon and Grant as soon as a good deal comes up.


Brogdon, however, can really help our young guards learn the game better, provides good quality rotation minutes, and has a strong reputation as a positive looker room presence. He’s a consummate pro by every account, and exactly the kind of veteran that anyone would want around this young roster. Im of the belief his value to the growth of the team exceeds the value he would return on a trade.




I'm with you on Brogdon, I just have a feeling he is going to get tired of losing and want to be part of a competitive team. It's a long time until Feb 10th I suppose.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#52 » by PDXKnight » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:16 pm

I'm not gonna say we will be world beaters or make the playoffs but I think with Scoot we will outperform most reasonable expectations by a tad bit.. 32 wins perhaps. Given the head start we have on this rebuild with scoot and sharpe we could even be set up to make a play in by 2025 and the playoffs by 2026

Yes I'm aware this is more wins than with Dame but we were literally trying to lose last year and he sat out 1/3 the year. I believe this unit will be cohesive and defensively intense, won't win any title this year but they'll be a tough out with Scoot at the lead

I do have doubts about Chauncey as head coach so we will see of that inhibits our path forward but on paper I think we can hit a playoff trajectory relatively soon. And of course if we don't we probably get a new coach anyhow
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#53 » by JasonStern » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:28 pm

Shooting my shot - 30-52. Mistake prone team, but an athletic mistake prone team. Should be a fun highlight reel every game, even if the games end up being losses.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#54 » by PDXKnight » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:30 pm

JRoy wrote:Teams with rookie guards playing a big role rarely do well.

We will win a few close games, lose a bunch more close games and we will end up 25-29 wins and top 5 draft pick.


It get this but also believe that Scoot is more nba ready than most rookie guards. I suspect him to be somewhat like Roy in year one, not yet his best self but also super composed for a youngun
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#55 » by JRoy » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:31 pm

PDXKnight wrote:
JRoy wrote:Teams with rookie guards playing a big role rarely do well.

We will win a few close games, lose a bunch more close games and we will end up 25-29 wins and top 5 draft pick.


It get this but also believe that Scoot is more nba ready than most rookie guards. I suspect him to be somewhat like Roy in year one, not yet his best self but also super composed for a youngun


I hope you’re right but I don’t see that.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#56 » by PDXKnight » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:34 pm

JRoy wrote:
PDXKnight wrote:
JRoy wrote:Teams with rookie guards playing a big role rarely do well.

We will win a few close games, lose a bunch more close games and we will end up 25-29 wins and top 5 draft pick.


It get this but also believe that Scoot is more nba ready than most rookie guards. I suspect him to be somewhat like Roy in year one, not yet his best self but also super composed for a youngun


I hope you’re right but I don’t see that.


I know it's just pre season but he's already shown he's a leader on the court. Most rookie guards look lost & like theyre just trying to survive out there Scoot looks composed and calm/collected. You can put up stats in a pre season but can't fake that. Scoot is in control out there and is a stud already. Not gonna be an all star in the west in year 1 obviously but I have little doubt he will be on that level eventually
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#57 » by Norm2953 » Sun Oct 15, 2023 6:01 pm

Most rookie guards need time to adjust to the league unless they are lucky like Magic was
to step into a veteran lineup.

This will be a team that if they can keep their heads above water by January/February, could
surprise and they do have some solid pieces in place, especially if Ayton plays to his ability.

It'll be a gradual rebuild for by next season, we might be where the Rockets are this season.
Adding a talented player with length is a must, especially if Ayton is a bust in the end. We all
can see Simons, Sharpe and Scoot in their BC and only need to add a similar piece to their FC
in order to contend.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#58 » by Brandon-Clyde » Sun Oct 15, 2023 6:17 pm

I think the team will be competitive most nights but still come up short. Won't win a lot of games but won't be blown out most nights.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#59 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Sun Oct 15, 2023 7:13 pm

Brandon-Clyde wrote:I think the team will be competitive most nights but still come up short. Won't win a lot of games but won't be blown out most nights.


Breaking out the ol' "competitive loss" consolation mantra.
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Re: So… are we really gonna be THAT bad? 

Post#60 » by PDXKnight » Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:12 pm

Im really conflicted on what to root for. On one hand i hope we have a top 5 pick as there's some nice big men and wing talent in this draft. On the flip side if we blow past expectations it likely means this team is gelling nicely and shaping up well heading into year 2 of the rebuild.

I think honestly Im hoping we can be relatively bad this year but not bottom surfing. Just hold expectations and get some capital moving forward preferably in the form of a wing or a 4. The 3-8 range should get us where we want to be, instill a culture of winning but don't win so much as to blow maybe our last chance in awhile to acquire talent in the draft with one of portlands picks. And in that range there will be that fighters chance at winning the lotto even better

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