RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #34 (Kawhi Leonard)

[Doctor MJ]

Need help deciding a runoff between Walt Frazier & Kawhi Leonard.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

[lessthanjake]

I vote for Kawhi Leonard here. I’ve explained why in prior votes and prior discussion. I just think Kawhi is a better player, who was a more important part of a title run than Frazier was, in terms of raw box output and otherwise. The injuries and longevity issues with Kawhi make it close, but not enough to put Kawhi below Frazier for me.

[iggymcfrack]

.

You missed trelos6's vote for Kawhi in post #13 which should make this a Kawhi vs Frazier runoff

This game’s going to overtime!!!

[iggymcfrack]

So Kawhi became comparable offensive player in the playoffs to a leading ball-handler and playmaker of the best team in the league because he was hot from three...?

Leonard wasn't a creator in 2014 playoffs. He was strictly a finisher at that point, an excellent one but he didn't have a lot of responsibility on offense and was surrounded by significantly better creators than himself. Of course such things are not captured in PER or BPM unfortunately.

More that he just maintained his level of play while Frazier fell off in the playoffs. If we pace adjust Frazier's raw playoff numbers in 1970 to 2014 we come up with:

12.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.6 APG

It's not like he was exactly some giant offensive force that was bringing up the whole team. Best fit I can find in terms of those numbers combined with good defense for 2014 would be Mike Conley with less points.

So 13/6/7 now is significantly worse than 14/7/2?

Let's also forget for a moment that Walt struggled the most in the only one sided series, while Kawhi played his worst basketball in 2014 playoffs against two teams that were the closest to beat them (Dallas and OKC).

Kawhi was more efficient, but I’d still have Frazier ahead for offense only. I’m just saying he’s not some huge playmaker where his non-box impact is going to outweigh Kawhi’s elite wing defense.

[iggymcfrack]

So, I won't vote because I'm not supposed to jump in only in this specific moment, but here are my CORP evaluation of these two:

Walt Frazier

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 4 (1971-74)
All-nba: 3 (1969, 1970, 1975)
All-star: 2 (1976, 1977)
Sub all-star: 1 (1978)
Role player: 0

Kawhi Leonard

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 2 (2017, 2019)
Weak MVP: 2 (2016, 2020)
All-nba: 2 (2015, 2021)
All-star: 2 (2014, 2023)
Sub all-star: 1 (2013)
Role player: 1 (2012)

They look reasonably close to me, they rank basically identical in career CORP as well. The main difference to me is that Kawhi peaked higher, but 3 of his high level seasons (2017, 2021, 2023) were destroyed by injuries.

I wouldn't vote for either that high to be fair, but it's an interesting discussion.

It feels like this looks absurdly favorable to Frazier as his ‘76 season where the team was better where the team played better in the 23 games he missed than the 59 games he played and his ‘77 season with a sub-1 BPM are rated in an equal tier to Kawhi’s FMVP season where he was the best player on a champion for both the regular season and postseason…. and yet!…. looking at your overall analysis… it still favors Kawhi!!! If this doesn’t say it all, I don’t know what does.

[70sFan]

More that he just maintained his level of play while Frazier fell off in the playoffs. If we pace adjust Frazier's raw playoff numbers in 1970 to 2014 we come up with:

12.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.6 APG

It's not like he was exactly some giant offensive force that was bringing up the whole team. Best fit I can find in terms of those numbers combined with good defense for 2014 would be Mike Conley with less points.

So 13/6/7 now is significantly worse than 14/7/2?

Let's also forget for a moment that Walt struggled the most in the only one sided series, while Kawhi played his worst basketball in 2014 playoffs against two teams that were the closest to beat them (Dallas and OKC).

Kawhi was more efficient, but I’d still have Frazier ahead for offense only. I’m just saying he’s not some huge playmaker where his non-box impact is going to outweigh Kawhi’s elite wing defense.

He's not "some huge playmaker" but his playmaking advantage over 2014 Kawhi is huge and you can't just state anything else. Kawhi didn't create anything on offense at this stage of his career, Frazier was the main creator on his team that won the title.

[trelos6]

Folks I cannot emphasize enough how much I appreciate it if you follow standard notation bolded with your vote on the very first line I see - ideally with nothing on that line but the Vote and player's name. When I miss a vote, it's generally because the voter was not doing this. My bad for being mistake prone, but I appreciate your help.

Thank you,
Doc

Sorry. Will fix for #35

[70sFan]

So, I won't vote because I'm not supposed to jump in only in this specific moment, but here are my CORP evaluation of these two:

Walt Frazier

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 4 (1971-74)
All-nba: 3 (1969, 1970, 1975)
All-star: 2 (1976, 1977)
Sub all-star: 1 (1978)
Role player: 0

Kawhi Leonard

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 2 (2017, 2019)
Weak MVP: 2 (2016, 2020)
All-nba: 2 (2015, 2021)
All-star: 2 (2014, 2023)
Sub all-star: 1 (2013)
Role player: 1 (2012)

They look reasonably close to me, they rank basically identical in career CORP as well. The main difference to me is that Kawhi peaked higher, but 3 of his high level seasons (2017, 2021, 2023) were destroyed by injuries.

I wouldn't vote for either that high to be fair, but it's an interesting discussion.

It feels like this looks absurdly favorable to Frazier as his ‘76 season where the team was better where the team played better in the 23 games he missed than the 59 games he played and his ‘77 season with a sub-1 BPM are rated in an equal tier to Kawhi’s FMVP season where he was the best player on a champion for both the regular season and postseason…. and yet!…. looking at your overall analysis… it still favors Kawhi!!! If this doesn’t say it all, I don’t know what does.

How did you conclude that?

[iggymcfrack]

So, I won't vote because I'm not supposed to jump in only in this specific moment, but here are my CORP evaluation of these two:

Walt Frazier

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 4 (1971-74)
All-nba: 3 (1969, 1970, 1975)
All-star: 2 (1976, 1977)
Sub all-star: 1 (1978)
Role player: 0

Kawhi Leonard

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 2 (2017, 2019)
Weak MVP: 2 (2016, 2020)
All-nba: 2 (2015, 2021)
All-star: 2 (2014, 2023)
Sub all-star: 1 (2013)
Role player: 1 (2012)

They look reasonably close to me, they rank basically identical in career CORP as well. The main difference to me is that Kawhi peaked higher, but 3 of his high level seasons (2017, 2021, 2023) were destroyed by injuries.

I wouldn't vote for either that high to be fair, but it's an interesting discussion.

It feels like this looks absurdly favorable to Frazier as his ‘76 season where the team was better where the team played better in the 23 games he missed than the 59 games he played and his ‘77 season with a sub-1 BPM are rated in an equal tier to Kawhi’s FMVP season where he was the best player on a champion for both the regular season and postseason…. and yet!…. looking at your overall analysis… it still favors Kawhi!!! If this doesn’t say it all, I don’t know what does.

How did you conclude that?

2 MVP seasons + 1 role player season seems significantly better than 2 weak MVP seasons plus 1 all-NBA season.

[OhayoKD]

I'll go with Kawhi though I am not a fan of the arguments made for him on this thread.

[70sFan]

It feels like this looks absurdly favorable to Frazier as his ‘76 season where the team was better where the team played better in the 23 games he missed than the 59 games he played and his ‘77 season with a sub-1 BPM are rated in an equal tier to Kawhi’s FMVP season where he was the best player on a champion for both the regular season and postseason…. and yet!…. looking at your overall analysis… it still favors Kawhi!!! If this doesn’t say it all, I don’t know what does.

How did you conclude that?

2 MVP seasons + 1 role player season seems significantly better than 2 weak MVP seasons plus 1 all-NBA season.

Well, that's not how it works.

[ZeppelinPage]

Going with Walt Frazier here. Kawhi just doesn't play enough for my liking so I find Frazier more reliable in that regard.

[f4p]

Vote
1. Kawhi Leonard

Peak just too high to ignore. His 2017 season is downgraded too much for an injury that wasn't his fault, in what otherwise would be considered an extremely good year. Something like a +65 on/off per 48 in the warriors series. And even 2020 with the bad game 7 I'm still saying is an overall higher level. Too automatic at high volume, high efficiency playoff scoring over basically his whole career.

[70sFan]

Vote
1. Kawhi Leonard

Peak just too high to ignore. His 2017 season is downgraded too much for an injury that wasn't his fault, in what otherwise would be considered an extremely good year. Something like a +65 on/off per 48 in the warriors series. And even 2020 with the bad game 7 I'm still saying is an overall higher level. Too automatic at high volume, high efficiency playoff scoring over basically his whole career.

1. What injury is player's fault? Outside of some freak accidents like Bird injuring his arm in bar fight, players usually don't have any influence on their injuries.

2. By "warriors series" you mean one half?

[penbeast0]

To be fair there are some players who seem to play through their injuries while others always seem to be nicked and out. Most of it is just luck/fate as even some of the guys known for toughness miss a lot of games (like Jerry West who played through at least two broken noses but still is known for injury issues).

[Doctor MJ]

Calling the runoff.

Kawhi Leonard is Inducted at #34.

[uberhikari]

This is a little surprising to me. Kawhi only has 3 fully healthy prime seasons as a top 10 player in the NBA: 2016, 2019, and 2020. In every other season, he literally could not finish the season healthy.

[70sFan]

This is a little surprising to me. Kawhi only has 3 fully healthy prime seasons as a top 10 player in the NBA: 2016, 2019, and 2020. In every other season, he literally could not finish the season healthy.

Yeah, it's the biggest disagreement I have so far with this project. Kawhi isn't top 40 worthy to me, you can sneak him into top 50 if you are high on his peak but it's hard to put him any higher given his mediocre longevity and horrible durability combination.

[f4p]

Vote
1. Kawhi Leonard

Peak just too high to ignore. His 2017 season is downgraded too much for an injury that wasn't his fault, in what otherwise would be considered an extremely good year. Something like a +65 on/off per 48 in the warriors series. And even 2020 with the bad game 7 I'm still saying is an overall higher level. Too automatic at high volume, high efficiency playoff scoring over basically his whole career.

1. What injury is player's fault? Outside of some freak accidents like Bird injuring his arm in bar fight, players usually don't have any influence on their injuries.

just separating things like tearing your ACL vs getting injured by someone else. one just indicates maybe you can't stay on the court, the other could theoretically happen to anyone who happened to get undercut in a bad way.

2. By "warriors series" you mean one half?

the "off" is the other 3.5 games, where the spurs were an amazing -25 per 48 minutes without kawhi. that's a lot of game time to be beaten that badly. so even if kawhi was just break-even in "on", his numbers would have been incredible.

[70sFan]

Vote
1. Kawhi Leonard

Peak just too high to ignore. His 2017 season is downgraded too much for an injury that wasn't his fault, in what otherwise would be considered an extremely good year. Something like a +65 on/off per 48 in the warriors series. And even 2020 with the bad game 7 I'm still saying is an overall higher level. Too automatic at high volume, high efficiency playoff scoring over basically his whole career.

1. What injury is player's fault? Outside of some freak accidents like Bird injuring his arm in bar fight, players usually don't have any influence on their injuries.

just separating things like tearing your ACL vs getting injured by someone else. one just indicates maybe you can't stay on the court, the other could theoretically happen to anyone who happened to get undercut in a bad way.

2. By "warriors series" you mean one half?

the "off" is the other 3.5 games, where the spurs were an amazing -25 per 48 minutes without kawhi. that's a lot of game time to be beaten that badly. so even if kawhi was just break-even in "on", his numbers would have been incredible.

1. Fair enough in general terms, but not really in this context, because we know that Kawhi is injury prone and we can't just ignore that simply because "it wasn't his fault".

2. So you think that Kawhi would have stayed anywhere near "even" had he played the whole series? Do you seriously believe that?