BK_2020 wrote:threrf23 wrote:BK_2020 wrote:Data shows that FT% is one of the best indicators of a player's ability to shoot.
Correlation vs causation. Data also shows that 3PT% (or ideally an adjusted 3pt% that takes context into account) is an even better indicator of a player's ability to shoot 3s.
Data doesn't show that because 3pt% is way more context dependent. Bruce Bowen is a career 40% 3p shooter. He's not a better shooter than Brogdon who is 38% for his career or Tatum who is 37.5% for his career. FT% is a better predictor.
In any case
Svi's large career sample of 900+ 3pa doesn't paint him as an elite shooter.
So you're weighing the 3 point attempts he took as a 21 year old rookie (including just 3 games that season he played for Detroit) just as heavily as you're weight the three's he took last season when he was a consistent member of the Hornets rotation at age 25?
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he was a little bit more comfortable with the NBA game and a little bit more developed as a shooter when he was 25 than when he was a 21 year old rookie.
Oh, and now this season at age 26, he's likely to be even better than he was last season - a season where he shot 42.4% from 3.
2 other thoughts on the subject:
1) FT% *can be* a good indicator of 3 pt shooting projection. But it's by no means the end all be all. As others have pointed out, there are exceptions. Like Svi, for example..
22-23 season: 42% from 3, 67% FT
21-22 season: 31% from 3, 86% FT
Looking at the data, Svi seems to be a guy where the FT% theory doesn't really apply. With that being said, since his 3 pt % and FT% have varied quite a bit from year to year, that does mean that we can't be completely sure what to expect from him this season.
2) Volume is a good indicator of future 3PT shooting ability. For example, if a guy shoots 40% from 3 and 80% FT but only takes 1 three per game, you can't really call him much of an outside shooting threat. For his career, Svi has shot 10.6 3PA per 100 possessions which is very good volume. Not many guys in the league take more threes per 100 possessions. His career 3 pt % of 36% might not seem elite, but that is actually a very high mark, considering he shoots 3's at such a high volume. And also considering a good amount of attempts he's taken so far in his career were when he was just a 21 or 22 yr old kid, still adjusting to the NBA game and adjusting to a foreign country.
Most guys don't hit their prime till age 26. Svi didn't even turn 26 over the summer. But late last season, he was certainly showing signs of entering his prime - his last 10 games of last season in Charlotte he shot 39.4% from 3 on 7.1 attempts per game.
Lastly, I don't think anyone said he's an elite shooter. I think he's a good shooter, but not an elite one.