Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[ARandomStranger]

Lakers are the hardest test of our first three games, but its quite possible we get a 3-0 start.

[Residual-Heat]

Been watching Cam Whitmore and I still can’t believe we passed on him. Huge mistake.

Twice! I wanted him at 6, was shocked we passed on him at 11.

[eyriq]

Houston, Portland, and the Lakers should all be wins to start the season.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

I think of the first five we'll be close to favored against Houston, Portland, and Utah.

[Knightro]

I don't want to be harsh to anyone's optimism, but I am concerned that some of y'all might be a little too optimistic

[eyriq]

I don't want to be harsh to anyone's optimism, but I am concerned that some of y'all might be a little too optimistic

Are the odds out yet? We are 3.5 point favorites against Houston.

[SOUL]

50 wins or gtfo

[Knightro]

I don't want to be harsh to anyone's optimism, but I am concerned that some of y'all might be a little too optimistic

Are the odds out yet? We are 3.5 point favorites against Houston.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say the Magic will only be favored in two of the first seven games.

[tooler]

It's either irrational optimism or draft pick anxiety. Soon we'll have some games to watch.

[ogmagicfan]

I see us getting between 38-42 wins. So a solid 40 win season where we're play-in and potentially in play for the 8th seed.

[drsd]

Meanwhile…….

Read on Twitter

?s=46

The Magic media team made a video on this song !!!!

Watch on YouTube

[jezzerinho]

Meanwhile…….

Read on Twitter

?s=46

The Magic media team made a video on this song !!!!

Watch on YouTube

I usually find these things more than corny, but that was pretty cool! They missed a chance tho to finish on Suggs slamming it and getting mad at an oppo fan in the crowd. Would have been funny.

[Catledge]

It's either irrational optimism or draft pick anxiety. Soon we'll have some games to watch.

I'll take irrational optimism until at least game 10.

[eyriq]

It's either irrational optimism or draft pick anxiety. Soon we'll have some games to watch.

I'll take irrational optimism until at least game 10.

6-4 baby. Let's do it!

[Catledge]

It's either irrational optimism or draft pick anxiety. Soon we'll have some games to watch.

I'll take irrational optimism until at least game 10.

6-4 baby. Let's do it!

That's too close to rational. Catch up, eyriq.

[RichCollab]

Paolo didn’t even show up in preseason. We are going 18 - 2 out of the gate. Paolo 25+ ppg.

[eyriq]

I'll take irrational optimism until at least game 10.

6-4 baby. Let's do it!

That's too close to rational. Catch up, eyriq.

Do that for a full season and you are a 49 win team

[eyriq]

My read on the Eastern conference outlook based on Vegas over unders:

Contender: Celtics, Bucks
Dark horse: Cavs, 76'ers
Playoffs: Heat, Knicks
Play-in: Hawks
Bubble: Pacers, Magic, Nets, Bulls, Raptors
Fringe: Hornets
Tank: Pistons, Wizards

[ChosenSavior]

50 wins or gtfo

[YosemiteSam]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13

13. Orlando Magic (32-50)
I wrote earlier how I think the Magic might underperform what many have projected for them, because I just don’t see any way this team even sniffs averageness on offense. They were 26th a year ago with 80 games of Franz Wagner and 72 of Paolo Banchero. While each could take a step forward this year, I’ll take the under on 5,000 combined minutes between the two.

Otherwise, as I already noted, there’s just no shooting anywhere, especially if you aren’t counting on career 37 percent marksman Gary Harris to hit 43 percent from downtown again. Adding Joe Ingles and Jett Howard may help at the margins, but I don’t see them playing or launching enough to appreciably change the underlying math problem.

That Orlando’s top three scorers are frontcourt players acutely underlines the key issue here: The Magic have cornered the market on guards who can’t shoot. Cole Anthony shot 36.4 percent from 3 on relatively low volume, and things quickly get worse from there. Jalen Suggs was at 32.7 percent, lottery pick Anthony Black made 30.1 percent on low volume at Arkansas, and Markelle Fultz has never made a 3-pointer (prove me wrong).

Taking a half-step back this year, however, is perhaps irrelevant in the larger picture. The Magic didn’t tear down their team three years ago so they could win 37 games and make the Play-In Tournament. Look a year or two down the line, and the picture brightens: The Magic aren’t that far away from being genuinely good and have assembled most of the necessary pieces to get there relatively quickly.

Orlando has done a great job keeping its powder dry salary-cap wise, and while that ruse doesn’t come with an infinite timeline, it is very useful during the current window when Wagner and Banchero are on rookie contracts. (I should also mention Black here; he can’t shoot yet and may struggle as a rookie, but I’m very bullish on his defense and IQ long term.)

Orlando is in position to have $80 million in cap room in 2024, enough to sign two max contracts at the same time, and the Magic can do it while still having their top three scorers plus Black, Suggs and Howard under contract. Yes, it’s probably unrealistic to expect two stars to land in their orbit, especially in a year when most of the best potential free agents are either forwards or 30-somethings. However, the fact that the Magic can also trade into this space makes it easier to imagine Orlando signing one good guard, trading for another and suddenly having a real offense.

Alternatively, they could start down that road this season by using their slew of expiring contracts and future draft choices — they have all of their own firsts plus Denver’s pick in 2025 — to add talent in-season. However, such a move might hinder the Magic from further evaluating who else they want along for the ride in the middle part of this decade.

That key piece is one other reason for being slightly bearish on Orlando’s record this year: Guys such as Black, Howard, Suggs and Caleb Houstan should and will play, even if it has a negative impact in the short term.

An offseason pick swap trade with Phoenix gives you some insight into how Orlando is seeing this: The Magic set the swap for 2026, essentially betting that by then the team will be good enough that trading spots with the lesser of the Suns or Wizards pick will still have value for them. It’s a fascinating attempt to thread a timeline needle, projecting that the Suns will be on their way down but the Wizards won’t yet be too far on their way up … and that the Magic, of course, will be better than both.

https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

[Knightro]

If the Magic only win 32 games this season, Mosley should probably get fired and multiple guys should be jettisoned off the roster in short order.