Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[Residual-Heat]

32 wins for the Magic is disrespectful, but saying the Kings miss the play ins after the season they just had deserves jail time.

[eyriq]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13

13. Orlando Magic (32-50)
I wrote earlier how I think the Magic might underperform what many have projected for them, because I just don’t see any way this team even sniffs averageness on offense. They were 26th a year ago with 80 games of Franz Wagner and 72 of Paolo Banchero. While each could take a step forward this year, I’ll take the under on 5,000 combined minutes between the two.

Otherwise, as I already noted, there’s just no shooting anywhere, especially if you aren’t counting on career 37 percent marksman Gary Harris to hit 43 percent from downtown again. Adding Joe Ingles and Jett Howard may help at the margins, but I don’t see them playing or launching enough to appreciably change the underlying math problem.

That Orlando’s top three scorers are frontcourt players acutely underlines the key issue here: The Magic have cornered the market on guards who can’t shoot. Cole Anthony shot 36.4 percent from 3 on relatively low volume, and things quickly get worse from there. Jalen Suggs was at 32.7 percent, lottery pick Anthony Black made 30.1 percent on low volume at Arkansas, and Markelle Fultz has never made a 3-pointer (prove me wrong).

Taking a half-step back this year, however, is perhaps irrelevant in the larger picture. The Magic didn’t tear down their team three years ago so they could win 37 games and make the Play-In Tournament. Look a year or two down the line, and the picture brightens: The Magic aren’t that far away from being genuinely good and have assembled most of the necessary pieces to get there relatively quickly.

Orlando has done a great job keeping its powder dry salary-cap wise, and while that ruse doesn’t come with an infinite timeline, it is very useful during the current window when Wagner and Banchero are on rookie contracts. (I should also mention Black here; he can’t shoot yet and may struggle as a rookie, but I’m very bullish on his defense and IQ long term.)

Orlando is in position to have $80 million in cap room in 2024, enough to sign two max contracts at the same time, and the Magic can do it while still having their top three scorers plus Black, Suggs and Howard under contract. Yes, it’s probably unrealistic to expect two stars to land in their orbit, especially in a year when most of the best potential free agents are either forwards or 30-somethings. However, the fact that the Magic can also trade into this space makes it easier to imagine Orlando signing one good guard, trading for another and suddenly having a real offense.

Alternatively, they could start down that road this season by using their slew of expiring contracts and future draft choices — they have all of their own firsts plus Denver’s pick in 2025 — to add talent in-season. However, such a move might hinder the Magic from further evaluating who else they want along for the ride in the middle part of this decade.

That key piece is one other reason for being slightly bearish on Orlando’s record this year: Guys such as Black, Howard, Suggs and Caleb Houstan should and will play, even if it has a negative impact in the short term.

An offseason pick swap trade with Phoenix gives you some insight into how Orlando is seeing this: The Magic set the swap for 2026, essentially betting that by then the team will be good enough that trading spots with the lesser of the Suns or Wizards pick will still have value for them. It’s a fascinating attempt to thread a timeline needle, projecting that the Suns will be on their way down but the Wizards won’t yet be too far on their way up … and that the Magic, of course, will be better than both.

https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

His narrative isn't a terrible one.

[Audi]

Meanwhile…….

Read on Twitter

?s=46

The Magic media team made a video on this song !!!!

Watch on YouTube

Lol. I freakin love it. I like to think I had maybe a little something to do with this song surviving all these years...never thought I'd see the resurgence it's had recently. I uploaded the youtube video in my sig almost 14 years ago after the deepest of web searches to find an audio file!

[Mc-o]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13

13. Orlando Magic (32-50)
I wrote earlier how I think the Magic might underperform what many have projected for them, because I just don’t see any way this team even sniffs averageness on offense. They were 26th a year ago with 80 games of Franz Wagner and 72 of Paolo Banchero. While each could take a step forward this year, I’ll take the under on 5,000 combined minutes between the two.

Otherwise, as I already noted, there’s just no shooting anywhere, especially if you aren’t counting on career 37 percent marksman Gary Harris to hit 43 percent from downtown again. Adding Joe Ingles and Jett Howard may help at the margins, but I don’t see them playing or launching enough to appreciably change the underlying math problem.

That Orlando’s top three scorers are frontcourt players acutely underlines the key issue here: The Magic have cornered the market on guards who can’t shoot. Cole Anthony shot 36.4 percent from 3 on relatively low volume, and things quickly get worse from there. Jalen Suggs was at 32.7 percent, lottery pick Anthony Black made 30.1 percent on low volume at Arkansas, and Markelle Fultz has never made a 3-pointer (prove me wrong).

Taking a half-step back this year, however, is perhaps irrelevant in the larger picture. The Magic didn’t tear down their team three years ago so they could win 37 games and make the Play-In Tournament. Look a year or two down the line, and the picture brightens: The Magic aren’t that far away from being genuinely good and have assembled most of the necessary pieces to get there relatively quickly.

Orlando has done a great job keeping its powder dry salary-cap wise, and while that ruse doesn’t come with an infinite timeline, it is very useful during the current window when Wagner and Banchero are on rookie contracts. (I should also mention Black here; he can’t shoot yet and may struggle as a rookie, but I’m very bullish on his defense and IQ long term.)

Orlando is in position to have $80 million in cap room in 2024, enough to sign two max contracts at the same time, and the Magic can do it while still having their top three scorers plus Black, Suggs and Howard under contract. Yes, it’s probably unrealistic to expect two stars to land in their orbit, especially in a year when most of the best potential free agents are either forwards or 30-somethings. However, the fact that the Magic can also trade into this space makes it easier to imagine Orlando signing one good guard, trading for another and suddenly having a real offense.

Alternatively, they could start down that road this season by using their slew of expiring contracts and future draft choices — they have all of their own firsts plus Denver’s pick in 2025 — to add talent in-season. However, such a move might hinder the Magic from further evaluating who else they want along for the ride in the middle part of this decade.

That key piece is one other reason for being slightly bearish on Orlando’s record this year: Guys such as Black, Howard, Suggs and Caleb Houstan should and will play, even if it has a negative impact in the short term.

An offseason pick swap trade with Phoenix gives you some insight into how Orlando is seeing this: The Magic set the swap for 2026, essentially betting that by then the team will be good enough that trading spots with the lesser of the Suns or Wizards pick will still have value for them. It’s a fascinating attempt to thread a timeline needle, projecting that the Suns will be on their way down but the Wizards won’t yet be too far on their way up … and that the Magic, of course, will be better than both.

https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

To be fair the Magic barely made any moves and they were not great last year , can’t blame someone who is an outsider who doesn’t think the magic are just going to make a big leap off internal development . The nba has a lot of talent and magic are not head and shoulders better than any bottom tier team much less the best teams

[ChosenSavior]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13

13. Orlando Magic (32-50)
I wrote earlier how I think the Magic might underperform what many have projected for them, because I just don’t see any way this team even sniffs averageness on offense. They were 26th a year ago with 80 games of Franz Wagner and 72 of Paolo Banchero. While each could take a step forward this year, I’ll take the under on 5,000 combined minutes between the two.

Otherwise, as I already noted, there’s just no shooting anywhere, especially if you aren’t counting on career 37 percent marksman Gary Harris to hit 43 percent from downtown again. Adding Joe Ingles and Jett Howard may help at the margins, but I don’t see them playing or launching enough to appreciably change the underlying math problem.

That Orlando’s top three scorers are frontcourt players acutely underlines the key issue here: The Magic have cornered the market on guards who can’t shoot. Cole Anthony shot 36.4 percent from 3 on relatively low volume, and things quickly get worse from there. Jalen Suggs was at 32.7 percent, lottery pick Anthony Black made 30.1 percent on low volume at Arkansas, and Markelle Fultz has never made a 3-pointer (prove me wrong).

Taking a half-step back this year, however, is perhaps irrelevant in the larger picture. The Magic didn’t tear down their team three years ago so they could win 37 games and make the Play-In Tournament. Look a year or two down the line, and the picture brightens: The Magic aren’t that far away from being genuinely good and have assembled most of the necessary pieces to get there relatively quickly.

Orlando has done a great job keeping its powder dry salary-cap wise, and while that ruse doesn’t come with an infinite timeline, it is very useful during the current window when Wagner and Banchero are on rookie contracts. (I should also mention Black here; he can’t shoot yet and may struggle as a rookie, but I’m very bullish on his defense and IQ long term.)

Orlando is in position to have $80 million in cap room in 2024, enough to sign two max contracts at the same time, and the Magic can do it while still having their top three scorers plus Black, Suggs and Howard under contract. Yes, it’s probably unrealistic to expect two stars to land in their orbit, especially in a year when most of the best potential free agents are either forwards or 30-somethings. However, the fact that the Magic can also trade into this space makes it easier to imagine Orlando signing one good guard, trading for another and suddenly having a real offense.

Alternatively, they could start down that road this season by using their slew of expiring contracts and future draft choices — they have all of their own firsts plus Denver’s pick in 2025 — to add talent in-season. However, such a move might hinder the Magic from further evaluating who else they want along for the ride in the middle part of this decade.

That key piece is one other reason for being slightly bearish on Orlando’s record this year: Guys such as Black, Howard, Suggs and Caleb Houstan should and will play, even if it has a negative impact in the short term.

An offseason pick swap trade with Phoenix gives you some insight into how Orlando is seeing this: The Magic set the swap for 2026, essentially betting that by then the team will be good enough that trading spots with the lesser of the Suns or Wizards pick will still have value for them. It’s a fascinating attempt to thread a timeline needle, projecting that the Suns will be on their way down but the Wizards won’t yet be too far on their way up … and that the Magic, of course, will be better than both.

https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

His narrative isn't a terrible one.

Not mad at it. It is up to our team to change the narrative which is going to make this a fun year.

[pepe1991]

Seems like Kevin Porter is getting blacklisted from nba

[eyriq]

Seems like Kevin Porter is getting blacklisted from nba

Yeah. Big ouch.

[drsd]

To be fair the Magic barely made any moves and they were not great last year , can’t blame someone who is an outsider who doesn’t think the magic are just going to make a big leap off internal development . The nba has a lot of talent and magic are not head and shoulders better than any bottom tier team much less the best teams

If Fultz hadn't broken his toe doing house work preseason, it is hard to see the Magic going 5-20 to start the season.

I think a 41-41 season would have been probable.

[RookieStar]

Seems like Kevin Porter is getting blacklisted from nba

Yeah, but they got our boy Oladipo for it..

[Mc-o]

To be fair the Magic barely made any moves and they were not great last year , can’t blame someone who is an outsider who doesn’t think the magic are just going to make a big leap off internal development . The nba has a lot of talent and magic are not head and shoulders better than any bottom tier team much less the best teams

If Fultz hadn't broken his toe doing house work preseason, it is hard to see the Magic going 5-20 to start the season.

I think a 41-41 season would have been probable.

As a homer , I agree with you but we’re major fans !lol But from an outsider perspective I totally get why hollinger doesn’t see a 40-50 win season

[pepe1991]

Holmgren played really well in preseason.

[Knightro]

Holmgren played really well in preseason.

He's going to be a very good NBA player.

There's a world where he's far more impactful long-term than Banchero

[bigdogdylan5]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13

13. Orlando Magic (32-50)
I wrote earlier how I think the Magic might underperform what many have projected for them, because I just don’t see any way this team even sniffs averageness on offense. They were 26th a year ago with 80 games of Franz Wagner and 72 of Paolo Banchero. While each could take a step forward this year, I’ll take the under on 5,000 combined minutes between the two.

Otherwise, as I already noted, there’s just no shooting anywhere, especially if you aren’t counting on career 37 percent marksman Gary Harris to hit 43 percent from downtown again. Adding Joe Ingles and Jett Howard may help at the margins, but I don’t see them playing or launching enough to appreciably change the underlying math problem.

That Orlando’s top three scorers are frontcourt players acutely underlines the key issue here: The Magic have cornered the market on guards who can’t shoot. Cole Anthony shot 36.4 percent from 3 on relatively low volume, and things quickly get worse from there. Jalen Suggs was at 32.7 percent, lottery pick Anthony Black made 30.1 percent on low volume at Arkansas, and Markelle Fultz has never made a 3-pointer (prove me wrong).

Taking a half-step back this year, however, is perhaps irrelevant in the larger picture. The Magic didn’t tear down their team three years ago so they could win 37 games and make the Play-In Tournament. Look a year or two down the line, and the picture brightens: The Magic aren’t that far away from being genuinely good and have assembled most of the necessary pieces to get there relatively quickly.

Orlando has done a great job keeping its powder dry salary-cap wise, and while that ruse doesn’t come with an infinite timeline, it is very useful during the current window when Wagner and Banchero are on rookie contracts. (I should also mention Black here; he can’t shoot yet and may struggle as a rookie, but I’m very bullish on his defense and IQ long term.)

Orlando is in position to have $80 million in cap room in 2024, enough to sign two max contracts at the same time, and the Magic can do it while still having their top three scorers plus Black, Suggs and Howard under contract. Yes, it’s probably unrealistic to expect two stars to land in their orbit, especially in a year when most of the best potential free agents are either forwards or 30-somethings. However, the fact that the Magic can also trade into this space makes it easier to imagine Orlando signing one good guard, trading for another and suddenly having a real offense.

Alternatively, they could start down that road this season by using their slew of expiring contracts and future draft choices — they have all of their own firsts plus Denver’s pick in 2025 — to add talent in-season. However, such a move might hinder the Magic from further evaluating who else they want along for the ride in the middle part of this decade.

That key piece is one other reason for being slightly bearish on Orlando’s record this year: Guys such as Black, Howard, Suggs and Caleb Houstan should and will play, even if it has a negative impact in the short term.

An offseason pick swap trade with Phoenix gives you some insight into how Orlando is seeing this: The Magic set the swap for 2026, essentially betting that by then the team will be good enough that trading spots with the lesser of the Suns or Wizards pick will still have value for them. It’s a fascinating attempt to thread a timeline needle, projecting that the Suns will be on their way down but the Wizards won’t yet be too far on their way up … and that the Magic, of course, will be better than both.

https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

His narrative isn't a terrible one.

Yea but it’s like the worst case scenario barring no significant injury to Franz or Paolo *knock on wood. Contrast that with the ringer guys all three took the over on the season and I think they might be a little too on the hopeful side.

[bigdogdylan5]

Holmgren played really well in preseason.

He's going to be a very good NBA player.

There's a world where he's far more impactful long-term than Banchero

Ok yea but I don’t think there is much of a world where he overtakes Paolo as an offensive lead option. He could win more championships and awards but Paolo offensive upside as a creator is in another stratosphere to Chet. But Chet’s defensive is a stratosphere higher. I think the most likely look back is they will be debated and it will be close. Depends greatly on what the team needed

[eyriq]

More from Hollinger on the East Bottom 8 teams - has Magic #13



https://theathletic.com/4964093/2023/10/17/nba-east-predictions-bulls-nets-hawks-hollinger/

His Bottom 8:

15: Wiz
14: Pistons
13: Magic
12: Bulls
11: Hornets
10: Pacers
8 (tie): Hawks
8 (tie): Nets

Also, if you read his West preview he only has the Trailblazers winning less than Orlando, so he puts them 27th in the NBA (behind the Rockets, Jazz, and Spurs. He also has the Kings missing the play-in

His narrative isn't a terrible one.

Yea but it’s like the worst case scenario barring no significant injury to Franz or Paolo *knock on wood. Contrast that with the ringer guys all three took the over on the season and I think they might be a little too on the hopeful side.

This is definitely a description of the downside scenario. It's realistic as it's within 5 games of the Vegas break even projection of 37 wins, but at the lowest end of that range. Scathing view off our backcourt. I honestly wish we'd hire him over Weltman!

[bigdogdylan5]

His narrative isn't a terrible one.

Yea but it’s like the worst case scenario barring no significant injury to Franz or Paolo *knock on wood. Contrast that with the ringer guys all three took the over on the season and I think they might be a little too on the hopeful side.

This is definitely a description of the downside scenario. It's realistic as it's within 5 games of the Vegas break even projection of 37 wins, but at the lowest end of that range. Scathing view of our backcourt. I honestly wish we'd hire him over Weltman!

Yea no… we wouldn’t have Paolo (he had Jabari over him).

[basketballRob]

Holmgren played really well in preseason.

He's going to be a very good NBA player.

There's a world where he's far more impactful long-term than Banchero

I doubt it, tho. He'll probably have an injury plagued career.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[UCFJayBird]

To be fair the Magic barely made any moves and they were not great last year , can’t blame someone who is an outsider who doesn’t think the magic are just going to make a big leap off internal development . The nba has a lot of talent and magic are not head and shoulders better than any bottom tier team much less the best teams

If Fultz hadn't broken his toe doing house work preseason, it is hard to see the Magic going 5-20 to start the season.

I think a 41-41 season would have been probable.

This. Viewing the Magic season through a macro lens of just overall record, it's understandable to think the Magic won't make a "jump", but the context of which says that the Magic finished 29-28 after the horrendous start. So the Magic were basically a .500 team last year when relatively healthy.

Having said all that, injuries could happen again, players could underperform, other teams could've made bigger strides than us. But if we're not at least battling for .500 (assuming no significant injuries), the season will be a huge disappointment for me.

[Mc-o]

Holmgren played really well in preseason.

He's going to be a very good NBA player.

There's a world where he's far more impactful long-term than Banchero

I doubt it, tho. He'll probably have an injury plagued career.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

if he doesn’t have injury problem he has a higher ceiling than Paolo !

His defensive instincts , size and offensive game are a lot further a long than I realized . Paolo on offense needs isolation and his defense is not great (especially team defense ) . I like Paolo but watching Chet play has got me thinking the magic may have made the wrong pick .

[RookieStar]

He's going to be a very good NBA player.

There's a world where he's far more impactful long-term than Banchero

I doubt it, tho. He'll probably have an injury plagued career.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

if he doesn’t have injury problem he has a higher ceiling than Paolo !

His defensive instincts , size and offensive game are a lot further a long than I realized . Paolo on offense needs isolation and his defense is not great (especially team defense ) . I like Paolo but watching Chet play has got me thinking the magic may have made the wrong pick .

Eh no. Can you imagine a scenario where Chet is/was the primary offensive option? As I kept saying, we ( Magic ) have been dreaming of a guy that we can dump the ball to and expect offensive things to happen. We got that in Paolo.