Better Defender ('02-'06): Tim Duncan vs. Ben Wallace

[O_6]

I just wanted to take a deeper look at the defensive performances these two guys put up during those years. Both guys were amazing defenders who did it in very different ways, but I’m not sure which one was better over this time period.

First thing that needs to be mentioned is that in terms of media perception at the time, Wallace was considered the clearly better defender. You had plenty of Duncan supporters who would talk about how underrated he was defensively, but he was even getting overshadowed by his own teammate in Bruce Bowen at this time. Take a look where Wallace and Duncan stood in terms of DPOY voting from '02 - '06...

2002: Wallace 1st (116 1st place votes) -- Duncan Not ranked (0 1st place)
2003: Wallace 1st (100) -- Duncan 4th (2)
2004: Wallace 2nd (26) --- Duncan 7th (0)
2005: Wallace 1st (45) ---- Duncan 4th (6)
2006: Wallace 1st (58) ---- Duncan 6th (3)

That is a pretty massive gap in perception right there. Wallace won DPOY 4 times and finished 2nd once in that 5 year stretch. Duncan never finished in the Top 3 and only finished in the Top 5 twice over the same stretch. Duncan received 11 1st place votes from all writers during these 5 years... Wallace received 345.

Let’s check out their basic individual defensive stats...

BW -- 390 G -- 36.9 MPG -- 8.9 DRB -- 2.8 BPG -- 1.6 SPG -- 2.2 PF
TD --- 378 G -- 37.1 MPG -- 8.9 DRB -- 2.5 BPG -- 0.8 SPG -- 2.6 PF

Pretty similar numbers, although Wallace's additional steals while fouling less gives him a slight edge purely going by the stats. Let's take a look at their team defensive ratings over this time period for more context.

2002: Spurs (1st -- 99.7 DRtg) -- Pistons (8th -- 102.4 DRtg)
2003: Spurs (3rd -- 99.7) -- Pistons (4th -- 99.9)
2004: Spurs (1st -- 94.1) -- Pistons (2nd -- 95.4)
2005: Spurs (1st -- 98.8) -- Pistons (3rd -- 101.2)
2006: Spurs (1st -- 99.6) -- Pistons (5th -- 103.1)

Looks similar to the DPOY voting, but flipped. The Spurs were THE dominant defensive team of this time period, leading the league in DRtg 4 times and finishing 3rd once over these 5 years. The Pistons never led the league in DRtg and only finished 2nd one time in '04. The Pistons were the 2nd best defensive team over this stretch but there does seem to be a clear gap between the Spurs and them. Let's take a look at Duncan and Big Ben's defensive on/off numbers to see if anything stands out. I'm using PBPStats.com for the stats below...

BW -- 98.91 DRtg (On) -- 103.38 DRtg (Off) -- -4.47 Net
TD --- 96.95 DRtg (On) -- 101.37 DRtg (Off) -- -4.42 Net

Pretty impressive how even these 2 look based on this measure. Based on the raw plus/minus data, both guys were similarly effective defensive anchors who led dominant units while on the court. I've used Doc MJ's Normalized and Scaled RAPM spreadsheet in the past (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1313139) and this is how Duncan/Wallace performed in Scaled DRAPM over these years.

2002: Duncan (6.38 DRAPM) -- Wallace (2.61 DRAPM)
2003: Duncan (6.78) -- Wallace (6.60)
2004: Duncan (6.48) -- Wallace (6.80)
2005: Duncan (5.81) -- Wallace (4.13)
2006: Duncan (4.83) -- Wallace (4.56)
Average: Duncan (~6.06 DRAPM) -- Wallace (~4.94 DRAPM)

According to the Scaled RAPM on this spreadsheet, Duncan does seem to have a little edge over this period. Both peaked around the same but Duncan was more consistent on a yearly basis. Over this particular stretch, Duncan and Wallace being the top 2 defenders in the league seems to be backed up by the DRAPM data here (when you take minutes into consideration). But Duncan does seem to be the clear #1.

Rim Protection vs. 3PT Defense: Stylistic Differences
When I was comparing these two and their team defenses, one thing that stood out is that Duncan's value seems to be more focused on rim protection than Wallace's was. I cited the On/Off stats from PBPStats above, here's more '02-'06 data for Opponent shooting volume/efficiency for these guys.

Ben Wallace: Opponent Shooting On/Off
2pt FG% ------ .452 (On) -- .466 (Off) -- (-.014 Difference)
3pt FG% ------ .324 (On) -- .357 (Off) -- (-.033)
eFG% ---------- .458 (On) -- .477 (Off) -- (-.019)
At Rim FG% --- .557 (On) -- .580 (Off) -- (-.023)
At Rim Freq --- .320 (On) -- .333 (Off) -- (-.013)

Tim Duncan: Opponent Shooting On/Off
2pt FG% ------ .430 (On) -- .461 (Off) -- (-.031 Difference)
3pt FG% ------ .344 (On) -- .336 (Off) -- (+.008)
eFG% ---------- .443 (On) -- .467 (Off) -- (-.024)
At Rim FG% --- .535 (On) -- .589 (Off) -- (-.054)
At Rim Freq --- .308 (On) -- .327 (Off) -- (-.019)

You can really see the difference in their impact here. The difference in At the Rim shooting is much greater for Duncan than it is for Wallace. The Spurs defense was suffocating in the 2pt range with Duncan on the court, but especially at the rim.

But the 3pt shooting difference stands out. Wallace's on/off indicates that his defense made a bigger impact on opponent 3pt shooting than it did on 2pt shooting which is surprising to see for an Elite Rim Protector such as himself. This is in significant contrast to Duncan, whose teams actually defended the 3 better when he was off the floor.

3pt Defense was a very important aspect of the Pistons' defensive identity at this point in time. From '02-'06, they ranked 1st, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 2nd in least amount of three point field goals allowed. They also ranked 24th, 13th, 1st, 5th, 1st in lowest three point FG% allowed.

How much of their success at defending 3s had to do with Big Ben? The On/Off suggests he certainly made a difference. Having a Center who had the mobility of a small forward makes sense as something that would help limit opponent outside shooting.

Ben Wallace + Tim Duncan MISC Stats ('02-'06)
I think most people understand that Wallace was a great athlete, but I think he's still probably underrated in that regard. For example, the distribution of his shot blocking in contrast to Tim Duncan and others is very striking.

2002-'06: Block Locations
BW -- 1111 Blocks -- 727 At Rim -- 267 SMR -- 95 LMR -- 22 3PT
TD --- 961 Blocks --- 676 At Rim -- 266 SMR -- 13 LMR -- 6 3PT

Wallace and Duncan blocked roughly the same amount of shots when you combine At the Rim with the Short-Mid Range (shots within 13ft of the rim). But there is a clear difference in how many Long-Mid Range and 3pt Blocks they had (14+ ft from rim).

Wallace's 117 blocks from 14+ ft out ranked 2nd only to Andrei Kirilenko's 144 during this time. Shawn Marion at 100 blocks was 3rd and then after that, no one even reached 70. These 3 guys were on their own level at this time. I know Marion/AK47 are pretty much widely respected for being versatile super-athletic forwards from that era, but Big Ben was basically that type of athlete on a much stronger frame.

Tim Duncan only had 19 blocks from 14+ ft out, which is low but in line with a lot of the other top rim protectors of the time. Garnett only had 33 blocks of 14+ ft for comparison, Jermaine O'Neal had 23, Yao had 14, Shaq had 35, Camby had 46, etc.

Defensive 3-Seconds ('02-'06):
BW -- 11 violations
TD --- 22 violations

Those are just very low numbers of 3-second calls for the league leaders in blocks, especially for Wallace. It speaks to how active and smart these guys were that they didn't get caught being too slow down there. Dikembe (94), Shaq (79), Jermaine O'Neal (59), Olowokandi (56), Ilgauskus (52), and Dampier (50) were the most penalized players during these years for context. Mourning (47), Yao (40), Garnett (37), Dirk (36), and Brand (29) are some other notable names for comparison.

Goaltending Violations ('02-'06):
BW -- 46 violations (1111 blocks)
TD -- 6 violations (961 blocks)

Those of you who watched Timmy know that he did not jump very often on D. His game was all about positioning and length/strength. He only had 6 goal-tending violations in this 5 year period which is just ridiculous. Wallace's 46 isn't crazy high, but it still ranked 11th in the league at this time. Dalembert (113), Przybilla (101), Ratliff (82), Shaq (70), Jermaine O'Neal (67), Dampier (62), Kenyon Martin (60), Garnett (59), Yao (55), and Curry (51) were the Top 10 in the league.

Offensive Fouls Drawn (2006 only):
BW: 49 (6th most in the league)
TD: 10 (184th)

We only have this foul data since 2006 but it still shows you how much more active Big Ben was at drawing offensive fouls/taking charges. Big Ben was not only the league leader in blocking shots during this time, but he was one of the very best at drawing charges too. He created so many turnovers for his team.

Shooting Fouls Committed (2006 only):
BW: 89 (94th most in the league)
TD: 118 (40th)

Both guys did a really good job limiting shooting fouls for such active paint protectors, but again Big Ben especially looks unique.

With the foul data in 2006, I wanted to kind of create a "Good Box-Score play" and "Bad Box-Score play" count for these two in terms of defense. For "Good" I combined Blocks + Steals + Offensive Fouls Drawn and for "Bad" I combined Shooting Fouls + Goal-Tending Violations + Defensive 3-Seconds.

2006 Defensive Good/Bad Box-Score Defensive Plays
BW -- (181 blocks + 146 steals + 49 off. fouls drawn) -- (89 shoot. fouls + 3 Goal-Tending + 1 Def 3-Secs)
TD -- (162 blocks + 70 steals + 10 off. fouls drawn) --- (118 shoot. fouls + 0 Goal-Tending + 7 Def-3 Secs)

BW -- 376 "Good Plays" -- 93 "Bad Plays"
TD -- 242 "Good Plays" -- 125 "Bad Plays"

Even if you take into account Duncan's slight Defensive Rebounding edge this year (650 vs. 622), it still doesn't make up for Wallace's edge in this measure. Wallace simply caused way more turnovers while also committing less fouls and grabbing about the same amount of defensive boards to end the possession.

FInal Thoughts
These were 2 absolutely dominant rim protectors. In that '02-'06 period, they were the two best defensive players in the sport imo. But they did it in very different ways despite playing similar positions.

Duncan's defensive greatness revolved around his rim protection first and foremost. He may not have blocked as many shots as Ben (not by much), but I think it's fair to say that as a pure Rim Deterrent that he made more of an impact. The Spurs defense with him on the floor was almost impossible to score inside on, and they felt his loss greatly when he sat down. The Spurs defenses during this time were superior to the Pistons every single year going by DRtg, the Spurs were basically a defensive Dynasty during this period finishing 1st in DRtg 4x in 5 years on their way to 2 Championships. From the advanced RAPM data that we have, Duncan comes out slightly better but both look extremely good by that measure.

Wallace's impact is a little harder to figure out than Duncan's. It doesn't seem like he limited opponent interior scoring to the degree that Duncan did. That's probably the most important and easiest to contextualize aspect of being a great big defender, and he's a little behind Duncan in that area even though he was impactful. But he was a truly unique defensive force for a lot of reasons. He was reminiscent of AK47/Marion in terms of being a threat to make athletic defensive plays on the perimeter, on top of being a bigtime defensive rebounder and rim protector. He also managed to balance his hyper-aggressive hustle with high IQ, doing a tremendous job limiting fouls and other "bad plays" on defense.

No matter what, the ridiculous DPOY voting disparity isn't fair to Duncan. He was definitely right there with Wallace if not better on D during this period. His rim protection being so undeniable makes me feel like he's the "safer" choice as to who was better. But Wallace was just making plays all over the floor in such a smart manner. Wallace's mobility also made him a guy who was harder to gameplan against on that end in a playoff series, as Duncan played a more rigid interior style. It's a tough one. I think after all this, I lean towards Wallace by a hair due to how versatile he was. But it could go either way.

How would you guys compare these 2 as defenders? Who do you think was better during this time period?

[IdolW0rm]

What's the point of using Scaled DRAPM instead of actual PI-DRAPM if you're comparing them on a same season basis?
Duncan was always the better defender to me, by a considerable margin. Not that Big Ben wasn't DPOY level or anything.

[No-more-rings]

I would say Duncan despite the accolades of Ben. I’m not knowledgeable enough on the ins and out of their individual defense, but it seems like Wallace maybe gets a little too much credit for his team’s defense, and he seemed to struggle a bit with bigger players in the post unlike Duncan.

[70sFan]

What a fantastic post, this is what we need here! I will try to come up with more later, but I thought giving and-1 isn't enough to show my appreciation.

[tsherkin]

Great post, man!

[dygaction]

nice analysis, but if the fate of the universe is on the line, give me the taller one measured to the top of hair.

[ronnymac2]

Amazing post by OP. I didn't even know they tracked some of those stats during that era. Awesome stuff.

Big Ben's activity combined with his low fouls is super impressive.

[FlyingScotsman]

Really good discussion I feel this is one of those that you can’t really grudge anyone for choosing one over the other.

I’m gonna side with Duncan atm I feel his size and length are about the biggest edge atm.

[O_6]

Ben Wallace was a better defender?

[kcktiny]

No matter what, the ridiculous DPOY voting disparity isn't fair to Duncan.

What does it tell you that:

- not only at that time did sportswriters and broadcasters that voted for DPOY overwhelmingly vote for Wallace, but

- Wallace got more votes from NBA head coaches for the all-defensive team each of the 5 seasons than did Duncan

So not only did the people who watched them play the most but also the people that game planned against them on a regular basis clearly voted as to who in their minds was the better defender.

Your analysis is some 15-20 years after the fact. Why do you feel that should trump what they saw over 5 straight seasons with their own eyes?

[One_and_Done]

Duncan, and it's not terribly close.

[Jaivl]

No matter what, the ridiculous DPOY voting disparity isn't fair to Duncan.

What does it tell you that:

- not only at that time did sportswriters and broadcasters that voted for DPOY overwhelmingly vote for Wallace, but

- Wallace got more votes from NBA head coaches for the all-defensive team each of the 5 seasons than did Duncan

So not only did the people who watched them play the most but also the people that game planned against them on a regular basis clearly voted as to who in their minds was the better defender.

Your analysis is some 15-20 years after the fact. Why do you feel that should trump what they saw over 5 straight seasons with their own eyes?

If only I could have known player comparisons were that easy!

Allen Iverson > Jason Kidd as a defender, as per 01-03 DPOY voting. Case closed, everybody!

[O_6]

Duncan, and it's not terribly close.

Why?

[VanWest82]

I've always thought it to be obvious that Ben Wallace was the better defender. He was a better all around defender. OP made me seriously re-think this though. Well done.

[O_6]

I appreciate all the love for the post, but I’d prefer a discussion about it.

Duncan is a true legend defensively and I know his low gravity blocks style limited the fanfare. I think his strength is underrated. He was strong and had length and IQ.

Hot opinion is that Duncan was pretty clearly stronger than insanely fit Admiral. Functional strength in the post is a lot about lower body, and Duncan killed Robinson there. There was an article where a younger Robinson said Hakeem was stronger than him, haven’t been able to find it again. But again, that’s mainly about lower body power. Karl Malone took advantage of this Robinson weakness a couple times in the playoffs.

But Wallace truly was something else though. To the extent of anchoring a Championship. I don’t think anyone has matched his aggressive/composed IQ for his athleticism/strength on defense at his peak in the 3pt era. Hakeem and most are too wild.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

No matter what, the ridiculous DPOY voting disparity isn't fair to Duncan.

What does it tell you that:

- not only at that time did sportswriters and broadcasters that voted for DPOY overwhelmingly vote for Wallace, but

- Wallace got more votes from NBA head coaches for the all-defensive team each of the 5 seasons than did Duncan

So not only did the people who watched them play the most but also the people that game planned against them on a regular basis clearly voted as to who in their minds was the better defender.

Your analysis is some 15-20 years after the fact. Why do you feel that should trump what they saw over 5 straight seasons with their own eyes?

because at the time votings for defensive awards were extremely suspect.
For big men they were looking just at bpg and maybe rebounding and steals, while for guards and forwards it was basically all about reputation.
The most comical was Payton that was still making All defense firsr teams while he was constantly hunted, at the end of his career.
And here we always laugh abiut Kobe's selections.

All in all, I wouldn't take those awards too seriously.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I think it's extremely difficult to separate too guys that were obviously elite, but in different ways.
It's a lot about the scheme and how you build the team around them, otherwise I am not sure there's enough signal to separate Timmeh, Ben and even Garnett in a significant way.
There's one thing that I always loved about Timmeh, and makes me think that he's sometimes underrated historically compared to the likes of Akeem and Robinson, was how he could contest while also them be in position of taking rhe defensive rebound.
Do we have data about it, something like dreb often rim attempts on/off? I assume we do, but I am to lazy to look for it myself, lol.

[mikejames23]

These two were truly great defensively. If you look at the individual D-ratings, it goes towards the low 90's and even a high 80's era. Their individual D-Ratings are both great. Defensive box minus favors Ben while D-WS favors Duncan.

Eye test wise I like Timmy a little better. It's a vertical sport and being 7 feet helps. Duncan also looks like he's a tier above because he anchored a dynasty, something I am not sure Ben Wallace can do.