2023-2024 Official Around the NBA Discussion Thread

[YosemiteSam]

With the season upon us, I thought it might be interesting to look at teams who might not meet current expectations either on the upside or downside. We can't predict specific injuries or breakouts (which is why the current predictions exist), but you can look at past trends and see if some of these potential anomalies are present and might help someone interested in making a few regular season wagers:

Teams that overperformed last year (with a simple reason cited):

- Cleveland (trade acquisition star lifted them quicker and farther than anticipated in year 1)
- Knicks (health, coaching, and a free agent breakout)
- Magic (young player maturation and health post-opening months)
- Kings (trade acquisition, player maturation and coaching)
- Thunder (player maturation, unexpected rookie breakout, unexpected ALL NBA breakout, overcame key injury)
- Jazz (trade acquisition breakout, decision not to tank)

Teams that underperformed expectations:

- 76ers (superstar turmoil, coaching issues)
- Nets (coaching issues, superstar turmoil, midseason trades)
- Heat (health, regular season disinterest)
- Bulls (health, age)
- Raptors (coaching issues, lack of consistency or young asset progress)
- Pistons (star season ending injury, coaching issues)
- Warriors (regular season disinterest)
- T-Wolves (bad trade fit)
- Pelicans (star season ending injury)
- Mavs (bad chemistry)
- Blazers (bad chemistry, team structure)

With that in mind, and acknowledging you can't predict catastrophic injuries, here are the candidates for significant deltas to expectations in 2023-24 IMO:

Upside:
- Heat (health and chip-on-shoulder motivation after offseason rumors despite Finals appearance)
- 76ers (new coach, "us against the world" attitude)
- Magic (continuity, full season health, and superstar breakout(s))
- Pacers (superstar breakout, depth)
- Pistons (competent new coach, health, talent maturation)
- Mavs (Luka revenge tour)
- Spurs (Wemby effect, coaching)
- Rockets (competent new coach, added veteran talent, talent maturation)

Downside:
- Celtics (no depth, one or two injuries away from a steep fall)
- Knicks (regression to the mean)
- Raptors (unproven coach, lost talent, trade deadline teardown candidates)
- Bucks (aging roster, limited depth, unproven coach, potential superstar turmoil)
- Bulls (trade deadline teardown candidate)
- Pelicans (superstar health risk history)
- Kings (regression to the mean for health and talent)
- Lakers (aging stars injury risk)
- Clippers (aging stars injury risk)

Thoughts?

[NavalAviator94]

Not sure I agree that the Magic over performed but the big one for me is how the Miami Heat isn't at the top of the over performing list.

[YosemiteSam]

Not sure I agree that the Magic over performed but the big one for me is how the Miami Heat isn't at the top of the over performing list.

Regular season record was evaluated. Not playoffs. For gambling purposes

Also Magic beat over/under by like 7 wins

[eyriq]

With the season upon us, I thought it might be interesting to look at teams who might not meet current expectations either on the upside or downside. We can't predict specific injuries or breakouts (which is why the current predictions exist), but you can look at past trends and see if some of these potential anomalies are present and might help someone interested in making a few regular season wagers:

Teams that overperformed last year (with a simple reason cited):

- Cleveland (trade acquisition star lifted them quicker and farther than anticipated in year 1)
- Knicks (health, coaching, and a free agent breakout)
- Magic (young player maturation and health post-opening months)
- Kings (trade acquisition, player maturation and coaching)
- Thunder (player maturation, unexpected rookie breakout, unexpected ALL NBA breakout, overcame key injury)
- Jazz (trade acquisition breakout, decision not to tank)

Teams that underperformed expectations:

- 76ers (superstar turmoil, coaching issues)
- Nets (coaching issues, superstar turmoil, midseason trades)
- Heat (health, regular season disinterest)
- Bulls (health, age)
- Raptors (coaching issues, lack of consistency or young asset progress)
- Pistons (star season ending injury, coaching issues)
- Warriors (regular season disinterest)
- T-Wolves (bad trade fit)
- Pelicans (star season ending injury)
- Mavs (bad chemistry)
- Blazers (bad chemistry, team structure)

With that in mind, and acknowledging you can't predict catastrophic injuries, here are the candidates for significant deltas to expectations in 2023-24 IMO:

Upside:
- Heat (health and chip-on-shoulder motivation after offseason rumors despite Finals appearance)
- 76ers (new coach, "us against the world" attitude)
- Magic (continuity, full season health, and superstar breakout(s))
- Pacers (superstar breakout, depth)
- Pistons (competent new coach, health, talent maturation)
- Mavs (Luka revenge tour)
- Spurs (Wemby effect, coaching)
- Rockets (competent new coach, added veteran talent, talent maturation)

Downside:
- Celtics (no depth, one or two injuries away from a steep fall)
- Knicks (regression to the mean)
- Raptors (unproven coach, lost talent, trade deadline teardown candidates)
- Bucks (aging roster, limited depth, unproven coach, potential superstar turmoil)
- Bulls (trade deadline teardown candidate)
- Pelicans (superstar health risk history)
- Kings (regression to the mean for health and talent)
- Lakers (aging stars injury risk)
- Clippers (aging stars injury risk)

Thoughts?

I like the idea that we have upside. Continuity and breakout potential make sense as factors behind this.

[ogmagicfan]

Gotta say the overreactions to the leagues Wemby & the Thompson twins played in is pretty funny in retrospect

Its clear all 3 will be great players

[Skybox]

ORL preseason is just a blur...no real strong breaking developments or surprises I guess.

Jett can score. Black is a project that, IMO, needs to play - at least second unit. No flashes from vets, except that Suggs is fired up defensively and Fultz still hasn't decided to shoot (small sample size but still...). Still, too much depth and not enough top end in the starting backcourt. I don't care how strong our third-string is...if injuries get us that deep into the rotation - it's likely tank mode anyway.

Thinking out of the box- which they MUST have been doing in this draft, considering that many of us here see both high picks buried on the third string (not saying they should or could start, but a bad young team should be able to draft second stringers, at least). Who are the rookies threatening to obsolete/make available?

Black is obviously a serious threat to Markelle, given their similar skillsets, contract situations, and primary weakness. But could Black, if he emerges as a smaller Draymond-type also be a threat to Suggs? I love Suggs and value him highly and I always envision him next to a high-scoring Lead Guard type that compliments him better. IF we were to offer Suggs for that kind of guy (instead of pairing them) like Simons or Herro or Ivey?, could Black be the superior, defensive-minded, BBIQ type to play next to that type of guy (or next to Cole)? IMO, if Black (unexpectedly) dominated in Summer league and preseason, Fultz might be on the block today...but Black doesn't look nearly ready, so Fultz remains our best PG, at the moment. So, could Black be expendable for his trade value? Could Cole hold down PG for now and we cling to Black's promise (and move Fultz)?

I want Howard on the floor. Is he able to take Harris' mins at SG or even Suggs'? He looks big and maybe plodding to me (I haven't seen much) to be a SG but I've read others say he's definitely a slim tall SG...It's a shame to think he's relegated to duking it out with Houstan as third-string SF with Ingles in town. If Black shows he can score, where does he end up in the ORL rotation by trade deadline? and who becomes available for trade because of it.

[drsd]

Watch on YouTube

[eyriq]

ORL preseason is just a blur...no real strong breaking developments or surprises I guess.

Jett can score. Black is a project that, IMO, needs to play - at least second unit. No flashes from vets, except that Suggs is fired up defensively and Fultz still hasn't decided to shoot (small sample size but still...). Still, too much depth and not enough top end in the starting backcourt. I don't care how strong our third-string is...if injuries get us that deep into the rotation - it's likely tank mode anyway.

Thinking out of the box- which they MUST have been doing in this draft, considering that many of us here see both high picks buried on the third string (not saying they should or could start, but a bad young team should be able to draft second stringers, at least). Who are the rookies threatening to obsolete/make available?

Black is obviously a serious threat to Markelle, given their similar skillsets, contract situations, and primary weakness. But could Black, if he emerges as a smaller Draymond-type also be a threat to Suggs? I love Suggs and value him highly and I always envision him next to a high-scoring Lead Guard type that compliments him better. IF we were to offer Suggs for that kind of guy (instead of pairing them) like Simons or Herro or Ivey?, could Black be the superior, defensive-minded, BBIQ type to play next to that type of guy (or next to Cole)? IMO, if Black (unexpectedly) dominated in Summer league and preseason, Fultz might be on the block today...but Black doesn't look nearly ready, so Fultz remains our best PG, at the moment. So, could Black be expendable for his trade value? Could Cole hold down PG for now and we cling to Black's promise (and move Fultz)?

I want Howard on the floor. Is he able to take Harris' mins at SG or even Suggs'? He looks big and maybe plodding to me (I haven't seen much) to be a SG but I've read others say he's definitely a slim tall SG...It's a shame to think he's relegated to duking it out with Houstan as third-string SF with Ingles in town. If Black shows he can score, where does he end up in the ORL rotation by trade deadline? and who becomes available for trade because of it.

My "big" takeaways:

1. Suggs making the jump to starter
2. Paolo's leadership is A+, love how he is handling Franz's rise
3. Franz is rising
4. Black is probably not in the rotation
5. Fultz is stylistically more of the same

[Optimus_Steel]

Watch on YouTube

Can you imagine if Wemby or Steph would have gotten hurt on that jump ball? We never would have heard the end of it

Sent from my Pixel 7 using RealGM mobile app

[zaymon]

My "big" takeaways:

1. Suggs making the jump to starter
2. Paolo's leadership is A+, love how he is handling Franz's rise
3. Franz is rising
4. Black is probably not in the rotation
5. Fultz is stylistically more of the same

We will go as far as Franz takes us this year. Franz/Paolo dynamic will define this iteration of the team. Can Paolo function as #2 option if Franz really takes off ? Question for front office is how fast they will start to spend assets to help Wagner win. They propably want to wait another year, but Franz is so good already...
We need to watch how we compare to teams like Raptors, Hawks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls. Top 6 is not adamant with Heat getting older, Harden drama, Cavaliers uncertaint with DM.

[JoshuaPotter]

Watch on YouTube

Well its never to late to have a little bit of fun.

[eyriq]

My "big" takeaways:

1. Suggs making the jump to starter
2. Paolo's leadership is A+, love how he is handling Franz's rise
3. Franz is rising
4. Black is probably not in the rotation
5. Fultz is stylistically more of the same

We will go as far as Franz takes us this year. Franz/Paolo dynamic will define this iteration of the team. Can Paolo function as #2 option if Franz really takes off ? Question for front office is how fast they will start to spend assets to help Wagner win. They propably want to wait another year, but Franz is so good already...
We need to watch how we compare to teams like Raptors, Hawks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls. Top 6 is not adamant with Heat getting older, Harden drama, Cavaliers uncertaint with DM.

Great way to frame it. Going to be a great season.

[JoshuaPotter]

My "big" takeaways:

1. Suggs making the jump to starter
2. Paolo's leadership is A+, love how he is handling Franz's rise
3. Franz is rising
4. Black is probably not in the rotation
5. Fultz is stylistically more of the same

We will go as far as Franz takes us this year. Franz/Paolo dynamic will define this iteration of the team. Can Paolo function as #2 option if Franz really takes off ? Question for front office is how fast they will start to spend assets to help Wagner win. They propably want to wait another year, but Franz is so good already...
We need to watch how we compare to teams like Raptors, Hawks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls. Top 6 is not adamant with Heat getting older, Harden drama, Cavaliers uncertaint with DM.

Great way to frame it. Going to be a great season.

Correction but not a big one.

We will go as far as Franz, Paolo, Suggs take us this year.

Suggs in the SL is the outlier of outliers. When you think about it, he is the player that has the potential to get our current back-court out of 20-30th "best"

https://youtu.be/lDS3HsKpxek?si=FLAjtf9hw0QeV-hC

Otherwise again, nobody is wrong.

[zaymon]

We will go as far as Franz takes us this year. Franz/Paolo dynamic will define this iteration of the team. Can Paolo function as #2 option if Franz really takes off ? Question for front office is how fast they will start to spend assets to help Wagner win. They propably want to wait another year, but Franz is so good already...
We need to watch how we compare to teams like Raptors, Hawks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls. Top 6 is not adamant with Heat getting older, Harden drama, Cavaliers uncertaint with DM.

Great way to frame it. Going to be a great season.

Correction but not a big one.

We will go as far as Franz, Paolo, Suggs take us this year.

Suggs in the SL is the outlier of outliers. When you think about it, he is the player that has the potential to get our current back-court out of 20-30th "best"

https://youtu.be/lDS3HsKpxek?si=FLAjtf9hw0QeV-hC

Otherwise again, nobody is wrong.

We can list every player in the rotation becouse every player contributes. If we want to be correct we should mention Franz first and WCJ second becouse he was our second best player last year.
Paolo is mostly potential and propably year away from real impact. Suggs is impactful but only on one side of the floor.
Lets be honest, our real difference maker is Franz. We could replace Banchero with Isaac or Suggs with Harris and it would be similar or better product this season. You replace Franz and we are back at the bottom.

[bigdogdylan5]

Jaden Mcdaniels 5 year 136 million we all need to recalibrate how we look at these deals especially with the cap increases to come.

[pepe1991]

what a **** is going on?

Those are BIyombo , Mozgov , Ian Mahinmi contracts all over again. Teams will reget it. Big time.

[eyriq]

Great way to frame it. Going to be a great season.

Correction but not a big one.

We will go as far as Franz, Paolo, Suggs take us this year.

Suggs in the SL is the outlier of outliers. When you think about it, he is the player that has the potential to get our current back-court out of 20-30th "best"

https://youtu.be/lDS3HsKpxek?si=FLAjtf9hw0QeV-hC

Otherwise again, nobody is wrong.

We can list every player in the rotation becouse every player contributes. If we want to be correct we should mention Franz first and WCJ second becouse he was our second best player last year.
Paolo is mostly potential and propably year away from real impact. Suggs is impactful but only on one side of the floor.
Lets be honest, our real difference maker is Franz. We could replace Banchero with Isaac or Suggs with Harris and it would be similar or better product this season. You replace Franz and we are back at the bottom.

I disagree on Paolo. I think he was our best and most impactful player last season, and will be again. This stance admittedly has to ignore plus minus and lineup analysis, and rely heavily on counting stats and the eye test, but I'm 100% comfortable taking it. Highest usage with a massive free throw rate are two advanced metrics to focus on, if we need advanced stats for this argument. He was our 1st option and he transformed our ability to win at the line. His impact was transformative. We did not make the jump we did because of Franz, we made it because of Paolo. I don't think it's overly critical that we allocate credit perfectly between the two, but if we mistakenly deprioritize Paolo and for whatever reason lose out on him we might as well go back to tanking.

[jonbob17]

Jaden Mcdaniels 5 year 136 million we all need to recalibrate how we look at these deals especially with the cap increases to come.

What stands out to me is how did the Lakers fleece the rest of the league and their own guy and sign Austin Reeves 4/56? How did he not get close to 96 like everyone thought. If anyone needs to fire their agent, it's that guy.

[jonbob17]

Correction but not a big one.

We will go as far as Franz, Paolo, Suggs take us this year.

Suggs in the SL is the outlier of outliers. When you think about it, he is the player that has the potential to get our current back-court out of 20-30th "best"

https://youtu.be/lDS3HsKpxek?si=FLAjtf9hw0QeV-hC

Otherwise again, nobody is wrong.

We can list every player in the rotation becouse every player contributes. If we want to be correct we should mention Franz first and WCJ second becouse he was our second best player last year.
Paolo is mostly potential and propably year away from real impact. Suggs is impactful but only on one side of the floor.
Lets be honest, our real difference maker is Franz. We could replace Banchero with Isaac or Suggs with Harris and it would be similar or better product this season. You replace Franz and we are back at the bottom.

I disagree on Paolo. I think he was our best and most impactful player last season, and will be again. This stance admittedly has to ignore plus minus and lineup analysis, and rely heavily on counting stats and the eye test, but I'm 100% comfortable taking it. Highest usage with a massive free throw rate are two advanced metrics to focus on, if we need advanced stats for this argument. He was our 1st option and he transformed our ability to win at the line. His impact was transformative. We did not make the jump we did because of Franz, we made it because of Paolo. I don't think it's overly critical that we allocate credit perfectly between the two, but if we mistakenly deprioritize Paolo and for whatever reason lose out on him we might as well go back to tanking.

I mean Paolo showed some great things last year, but he was bad in terms of production. 42.7% from the field from a big is just not good. The FTs help make up for it but he's got to make them at a better clip. Even with all those FTs 52.9% TS.

He wasn't good on the other end, he wasn't a trainwreck like many anticipated either.

Most impactful? Probably...but not in a great way..It's the 17 FG attempts a game and the other attempts not counted that lead to FTs. If Paolo can get to around league average TS(say 165 out of qualified players), 56.5%, then the Magic will be cooking with gas.

Paolo probably has the most room for improvement on the team...and the good thing is he was a rookie, and he knows what to expect and what he needed to improve upon, and he should get better.

Doesn't sound like much but the efficiency is what wins and loses games over the course of a season. Or you could compete for a championship with usage monster and likely best passer in the league Jokic, and his 71% TS on massive volume while making everyone on the court more efficient. Eventually need Paolo to become our Jokic...at least Jokic-lite (Jokic-lite = Lebron )...It's asking a lot.

I'd also argue we made the jump last year because of the defense. I think we were like 6th in the defensive rating during our 29-25 run. Paolo started out hot. 23 ppg in Oct and Nov, and slowed through out the year, especially in FT attempts.

[Knightro]

Jaden Mcdaniels 5 year 136 million we all need to recalibrate how we look at these deals especially with the cap increases to come.

Exactly.

That deal doesn't kick in until next season and is about 27.2M per year. If the cap rises 10% in each year of the deal...

Year 1: 27M on 149.6 = 18% of cap
Year 2: 27M on 164.6 = 16.4% of cap
Year 3: 27M on 181.1 = 15% of cap
Year 4: 27M on 199.2 = 13.5% of cap
Year 5: 27M on 219.2 = 12.3% of cap

It *seems* like a lot because we're used to it being a lot, but if the cap does keep steadily rising like everyone is projecting, it's really not that much.