Deni Avdija - Part II

[Rafael122]

Marks and Lowe were speculating that between RFA, the teams who do have cap space might look elsewhere that it makes sense for a lot of these rookie extensions to be around the MLE. Deni essentially got the MLE. He's shown enough to warrant it, still has upside to make this look like a steal but please understand most of these guys are getting 15-20 million just by getting out of bed. It's the way of the land now.

[gambitx777]

It's a descending salary deal, which is awesome.

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?s=20

2024-25: $15,625,000
2025-26: $14,375,000
2026-27: $13,125,000
2027-28: $11,875,000

A plus contract !

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[dobrojim]

I like this deal a lot better than the one Kuz got. Maybe that should be obvious.

[tontoz]

Wow, that was certainly a pleasant surprise. he has already shown to be a top notch defender. This deal is reasonable even if his offense never improves.

[payitforward]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

[GoneShammGone]

For what Deni currently brings to the court I think its a good deal. And that's good, because I don't have high hopes for Deni suddenly learning how to shoot threes or dribble with his left hand in year four of his career. I mean, its always possible, and I'll root for it, but I tend to agree with others who say that Deni has reached "what you see is what you get" territory.

[DCZards]

For what Deni currently brings to the court I think its a good deal. And that's good, because I don't have high hopes for Deni suddenly learning how to shoot threes or dribble with his left hand in year four of his career. I mean, its always possible, and I'll root for it, but I tend to agree with others who say that Deni has reached "what you see is what you get" territory.

Disagree. Deni is 22 years old. He’ll be a much better player 3-4 years from now than he is today.

[doclinkin]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

Credit likely due to Winger as well, noted as a salary cap shogun in his prior positions.

[payitforward]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

Credit likely due to Winger as well, noted as a salary cap shogun in his prior positions.

You bet!

[gesa2]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

There are situations for which a declining contract is worse for a player and sometimes team as well. If the hope is that we would want to extend a contract in the future then a lower last year salary may be too small to build off of. That forces the player and team into free agency with more uncertainty and risk - of losing the player for the team, or of major injury and loss of $$ for the player. Deni will be at the MLE or close when he is a free agent, I doubt this will matter for him.

[wco81]

First game after signing a new contract, though the contract hasn't kicked in yet.

21 minutes, 4-8 FG for 9 points, -15 on a night when the Wizards get blown out by Pacers, giving up 143 points.

Kispert and Coulibaly both get more minutes, 24 and 23.

[closg00]

Deni's game looks exactly like where he left-off last-year. Granting that he will have some good nights this season, I still would not have re-signed him for 4-years and I would have slept like a baby.

[verbal8]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

There are situations for which a declining contract is worse for a player and sometimes team as well. If the hope is that we would want to extend a contract in the future then a lower last year salary may be too small to build off of. That forces the player and team into free agency with more uncertainty and risk - of losing the player for the team, or of major injury and loss of $$ for the player. Deni will be at the MLE or close when he is a free agent, I doubt this will matter for him.

If a contract can be extended the team has full Bird rights - so contract values are irrelevant - since full Bird rights allow the contract to go up to the max value.
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q58
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

You could maybe have a weird situation where a player out-performs a 2 year deal and the team doesn't get early-Bird rights to meet/exceed the market rate. But in that scenario for the player, they are in free agency - so another team can swoop in and pay market rate. If the player is particularly well suited to their particular team, the solution might be a 2 year deal with the second being a player option. That would have the player playing under market, but then set up for full Bird rights - and also as an unrestricted free agent.

[gesa2]

From the CBA link you provided:

“The salary in the first year of a veteran extension may be any amount up to 120% of the player's previous salary6, or 120% of the estimated average salary (see question number 31), whichever is greater, but no more than the player's maximum salary in that season (i.e., the maximum salary the player can receive if he were to sign a new contract that year as a free agent -- see question number 23).”

What am I missing here? Not repping myself as an expert but I would think this supports my post.

[payitforward]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

There are situations for which a declining contract is worse for a player and sometimes team as well. If the hope is that we would want to extend a contract in the future then a lower last year salary may be too small to build off of. That forces the player and team into free agency with more uncertainty and risk - of losing the player for the team, or of major injury and loss of $$ for the player....

Excellent points -- I hadn't thought of these issues.

[gambitx777]

A declining contract is always better for the player. $$ you get now is invested & grows. In this case, it's also better for the franchise, b/c we have a ton of room to pay more now & will have significantly more flexibility in the years when Deni's $$ (& Kuz's) goes down.

Like everything else Will Dawkins has done so far, both these contracts illustrate how sharp he is.

There are situations for which a declining contract is worse for a player and sometimes team as well. If the hope is that we would want to extend a contract in the future then a lower last year salary may be too small to build off of. That forces the player and team into free agency with more uncertainty and risk - of losing the player for the team, or of major injury and loss of $$ for the player....

Excellent points -- I hadn't thought of these issues.

I thought they fixed that rule? Where they increases the extension amount. That's why kuz declined his PO.

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[prime1time]

On a team as bad as the Wizards resigning Avdija changes nothing. Keep him we suck. Let him go, we still suck. By any measure, he's been a disappointment. Now we are just counting down the days until we replace him via the draft. In previous years, Avdija fans could hide behind his plus/minus but now that the team has gotten rid of Beal and Porzingis those days will be coming to an end. The best case scenario is that he surprises and we can move him to a contender before the trade deadline. The worst case scenario is that he's the same exact player he's always been but he comes in works hard and disciplined and helps to nurture the young players.

[prime1time]

Better than Rui for this team.

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LOL, can you please quantify what this means? Can you please explain what extending Deni Avdija means to a team that just gave up 143 points and is on the fast track to one of the worst records in the league? Wizards fans never cease to amaze.

[prime1time]

Better than Rui for this team.

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Why?

Rui put up better numbers in his 3 seasons than Deni has.

And then Rui went to the Lakers and had a very good postseason and got himself a 3-year $51 million extension.

I got the sense that Wizards really didn't want to extend Rui so they basically sold him on the cheap, didn't get much back unless Nunn or one of those SRPs turn into key players.

Deni is a poor shooter, worse than Hachimura. And for a 6-9 guy, he must not finish that well because his overall FG% in 3 seasons is just 43.1%? He's only averaging about 3.1 3PA over his 3 seasons so he's taking a lot of midrange shots and/or not finishing well enough at the rim?

Deni's shooting over the 3 seasons has been about the same, not seeing improvement at least statistically. Maybe they're still working on his mechanics?

What is the one or two things he does well or offers that other players on the roster don't offer? Size and youth?

I assume you are only looking at offensive numbers and not defensive numbers. Or passing. Not a huge fan of either, but it appears the new front office is favoring defense, which is not a bad thing. Have no idea what they would have done with Rui, but my guess is they probably would have let him go. Yes, he's a better mid-range scorer than Deni.

*Checks notes*
We gave up 143 points and the Pacers pulled the starters by early in the 4th.

[prime1time]

Better than Rui for this team.

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Why?

Rui put up better numbers in his 3 seasons than Deni has.

And then Rui went to the Lakers and had a very good postseason and got himself a 3-year $51 million extension.

I got the sense that Wizards really didn't want to extend Rui so they basically sold him on the cheap, didn't get much back unless Nunn or one of those SRPs turn into key players.

Deni is a poor shooter, worse than Hachimura. And for a 6-9 guy, he must not finish that well because his overall FG% in 3 seasons is just 43.1%? He's only averaging about 3.1 3PA over his 3 seasons so he's taking a lot of midrange shots and/or not finishing well enough at the rim?

Deni's shooting over the 3 seasons has been about the same, not seeing improvement at least statistically. Maybe they're still working on his mechanics?

What is the one or two things he does well or offers that other players on the roster don't offer? Size and youth?

Rui has always had a terrible feel for the game. If you can manage to put him in a role where he makes no decisions (playing on ball on defense, finisher on offense), he is a suitable role player. But he will never be more.

Deni has been better than Rui. The main difference is defense. Deni is one of the better defenders in the league and has a shot at making an All-Defense team at some point in his career. Rui is a fair on-ball defender but a horrific help defender. That showed in the numbers. Here is the on/off differential for Deni and Rui over the past three years:

2023
Deni +1.3
Rui -4.0

2022
Deni +5.2
Rui -3.4

2021
Deni -1.1 (as a 19-year-old rookie)
Rui -1.8

2020
Rui -6.0

Deni also consistently and dramatically outpaced Rui in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per minute. And don't overlook that Deni is 3 years younger than Rui. The only thing Rui did better was score, because he took more shots. But taking more shots at a below-average efficiency isn't anything to be happy about.

Rui did have two outstanding runs in the playoffs thanks to hot shooting from 3. But were talking a sample size of 561 minutes. I think the regular season sample size of 5650 minutes is a much better basis for predicting the future.

What never ceases to amaze about attempts to put down Rui, is that the arguments always more about how Rui is bad, than Deni is actually good. They love on/off because it circumvents fair criticism surrounding Avdija's lack of offensive improvement. Then they discredit Rui's playoff success because it's a small sample size.

Ask yourself this. Is this really a good way to objectively analyze players? Or is someone just trying to win an argument? How much impact does Deni and Rui really have on +/-? When you're watching the game and Deni checks in, are you really saying to yourself, "Oh man, the other team better watch out now because Deni's about to come in." Or is it that Deni was usually on the floor with other talented players like Beal and Porzingis so that his on/off gets inflated. Meanwhile Rui, who's a scorer, was used primarily to sustain the offense while our main scorers were on the bench. Is it any shock that Rui posted his worst on/off in 2020, when Beal injured for a large part of the year? And then posted his best on/off in 2021 when we got Westbrook and made the playoffs?

Due to Deni's lack of offensive talent and solid defense, the reality is that his game fits very nicely next to offensive stars like Porzingis and Beal. This inflates his on/off. And using this to determine his value as a player gives a false impression of his overall skill level.