2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[eminence]

.

Just doing POY, as that's the only one I really track.

Jokic - Reigning champ, nothing to really add.

Tatum - don't really see an all-timer of a season, but strongly I expect he'll wind up in my top 5 again, and if Boston rolls to title with Tatum still a clear #1 he could wind up at the top of the ballot, though it may take Jokic slipping.

Giannis/Dame - Giannis in the lead now, but I could see a season where Dame winds up looking like the more valuable guy.

LeBron/Steph - I have higher expectations for Steph, but both are in the camp where I don't really expect more than fringe top 5 regular seasons at best, but if they turn it up in the playoffs they'll rise faster than other players due to accumulated credit. Kawhi/KD kind of honorable mentions in this camp, but unlikely.

Embiid - Could be on the ballot, would be surprised if it's the top half, just so injury prone, and lacking the team for a real PO run.

Luka/Booker/SGA - Initially in that order, I expect one or more of the young guys on the ballot.

I would be surprised by anyone else in particular making a push (sorry Jimmy). LeBron would also be fairly surprising.

[Clyde Frazier]

Shai, Mitchell, and Booker (granted the latter sat out a game) have started the season guns a-blaze. I think Luka should be a shoe in for one of the first team selections (unsure how the position-less thing works, but I think it’ll be worked around when the teams are finalized). At that, can never count out Steph - but I think one of the other three spots will be one of them. My bets’ on Shai right now. He’s looked a better, more proactive passer in OKC’s first two games. Already such a flashy, crafty player at 25.

Honestly, I feel more uncertain about All-NBA teams this year than ever before because of the games requirement. One random, untimely injury, and that can lead you missing games. Luka is coming into this season with a calf injury and that injury can linger if not rested at times.

I can see a world where less over half of the people who make all-nba this year, aren't actual top 15 guys.

This doesn't bother me. Injuries are part of the game. Why should players be rewarded for not hitting 65 games? That's a pretty reasonable number. It should have the effect intended where healthy stars don't miss unnecessary games. I don't think we're gonna have all NBA spots filled with low end/fringe all stars.

[rk2023]

.

Just doing POY, as that's the only one I really track.

Jokic - Reigning champ, nothing to really add.

Tatum - don't really see an all-timer of a season, but strongly I expect he'll wind up in my top 5 again, and if Boston rolls to title with Tatum still a clear #1 he could wind up at the top of the ballot, though it may take Jokic slipping.

Giannis/Dame - Giannis in the lead now, but I could see a season where Dame winds up looking like the more valuable guy.

LeBron/Steph - I have higher expectations for Steph, but both are in the camp where I don't really expect more than fringe top 5 regular seasons at best, but if they turn it up in the playoffs they'll rise faster than other players due to accumulated credit. Kawhi/KD kind of honorable mentions in this camp, but unlikely.

Embiid - Could be on the ballot, would be surprised if it's the top half, just so injury prone, and lacking the team for a real PO run.

Luka/Booker/SGA - Initially in that order, I expect one or more of the young guys on the ballot.

I would be surprised by anyone else in particular making a push (sorry Jimmy). LeBron would also be fairly surprising.

Not selling my stocks on Anthony Davis, but we'll see. Same durability concerns as others here.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Shai, Mitchell, and Booker (granted the latter sat out a game) have started the season guns a-blaze. I think Luka should be a shoe in for one of the first team selections (unsure how the position-less thing works, but I think it’ll be worked around when the teams are finalized). At that, can never count out Steph - but I think one of the other three spots will be one of them. My bets’ on Shai right now. He’s looked a better, more proactive passer in OKC’s first two games. Already such a flashy, crafty player at 25.

Honestly, I feel more uncertain about All-NBA teams this year than ever before because of the games requirement. One random, untimely injury, and that can lead you missing games. Luka is coming into this season with a calf injury and that injury can linger if not rested at times.

I can see a world where less over half of the people who make all-nba this year, aren't actual top 15 guys.

This doesn't bother me. Injuries are part of the game. Why should players be rewarded for not hitting 65 games? That's a pretty reasonable number. It should have the effect intended where healthy stars don't miss unnecessary games. I don't think we're gonna have all NBA spots filled with low end/fringe all stars.

Maybe you're talking in general, but I didn't say I had a problem with it. I was just mentioning that it will be harder to predict.

[Doctor MJ]

Now that the season has started and we could gain some first impressions, I thought it could be fun to talk about the players and other persons you expect to be candidates for the annual awards once the season ends.

Obviously all of that is still just speculation, but if you had to come up with a list of likely candidates for the eventual ballots – who would be on them? Feel free to list as many players as you want as long as you believe that they have a very realistic chance to end up on the ballot.

1. POY
2. OPOY
3. DPOY
4. ROY
5. 6MOY
6. MIP
7. COY
8. EOY

And bonus categories:

9. BPOY (Breakout player of the year, for a player who made the leap to stardom or superstardom)
10. CPOY (Comeback player of the year, for a player who recovered from (a) subpar season(s))
11. HPOY (Hustle player of the year, who made the most out if his opportunities due to sheer his energy and hustle)

I hope I didn't forget about a category.

It's funny trying to think about this so early in the year. Realistically so much will depend on how playoff contenders ends up contending.

Just going by a few guys who comes to mind:

POY
Jokic - clear cut favorite
Tatum - if Boston breaks through and wins the chip this year, I expect him to be a strong candidate
Giannis - won't even necessarily need to win the championship, but the Bucks are expected to be strong contenders
Booker - I think we can see the path to get there, even if there's so much that could go haywire
Davis - Not sure if I'd bet on him ranking higher than teammate LeBron, but I think Davis would be the more likely to summit

I do feel compelled to specifically mention SGA who to me seems unlikely to reach #1 - and less likely than guys like Doncic or Embiid too - but feels like he's poised to be backed by a major media campaign if the Thunder keep winning.
OPOY & DPOY, kinda think my ballots from last year make as much sense as anything to bring up.

OPOY - Jokic, Booker, Curry.
DPOY - Davis, Mobley, JJJ

ROY
Chet - early leader in the clubhouse
Wemby - could explode ahead at any time and leave everyone else in the dust
Lively - seems a perfect fit for a great rookie campaign

6MOY - here I tend to look at likely impressive 6th men for contenders
Al Horford - doesn't he seem like he was made to win this award? Only took him until his 17th year for him to (likely) be eligible
Jae Crowder - kinda like Horford, but obviously not with the same level of impressive all-star prime & longevity
Reggie Jackson - a microwave on the champs, seems a ready-made contender

MIP
Tyrese Maxey - the Harden situation is giving Maxey the perfect opportunity to break out
Franz Wagner - everything seems to be turning up aces for Franz right now
Devin Vassell - the Spurs seems to have decided that Vassell is a featured part of the Wemby plan

COY
Rick Carlisle - Pacers are looking good, and if the Mavs struggle he'll be on everyone's minds all the more
Mark Daigneault - Thunder looking good.
Michael Malone - this is a tip of the cap to the fact that if everything continues harmoniously in Denver, Malone will get buzz.

EOY
Brad Stevens - if his bets on Porzingis & Holiday pay off, he'll be the obvious choice
Jon Horst - the bet on Lillard pays off, he'll be the obvious choice
James Jones - if his bet on Beal (on top of previously big bets) pays off, he'll be the obvious choice

Interestingly, I consider the Nuggets to be the favorites, so I just mentioned 3 GMs of 3 teams that probably need to win the title to be seen as "paying off", and since I wouldn't consider any to be the favorites, it kinda cries out for another name not operating with such brutal stakes. So I'll say Kevin Pritchard of Indiana. If Bruce Brown works out we could see Indiana flirt with a Top 4 seed, and that would at least make Pritchard a decent candidate.

Curious what others would say on the other awards, but can't say I've really thought about them.

[Peregrine01]

It’s early but the Nuggets look like they can win 70 games if they wanted to. Everything just looks so easy to them. They can mess around for a while when they get bored but when they want to put teams away they can seemingly do it on call.

And what’s with all of Jokic’s teammates suddenly becoming good passers? Even MPJ all of a sudden is throwing dimes.

[cpower]

It’s early but the Nuggets look like they can win 70 games if they wanted to. Everything just looks so easy to them. They can mess around for a while when they get bored but when they want to put teams away they can seemingly do it on call.

And what’s with all of Jokic’s teammates suddenly becoming good passers? Even MPJ all of a sudden is throwing dimes.

i think you seriously underrate how difficult to win 70 games in the NBA. 2016 Warriors started the season with 24 straight wins..I will believe it when Nuggets win the first 15 straight.

[Doctor MJ]

It’s early but the Nuggets look like they can win 70 games if they wanted to. Everything just looks so easy to them. They can mess around for a while when they get bored but when they want to put teams away they can seemingly do it on call.

And what’s with all of Jokic’s teammates suddenly becoming good passers? Even MPJ all of a sudden is throwing dimes.

i think you seriously underrate how difficult to win 70 games in the NBA. 2016 Warriors started the season with 24 straight wins..I will believe it when Nuggets win the first 15 straight.

I think the odds are low that they'll hit 70, but the Nuggets are indeed the type of team that I'd see as a possibility for reasons related to teams like the 2016 Warriors.

Some champs come back the next year with a hangover.
Some champs come back the next year energized.

The Nuggets are clearly one of the latter group.

[Peregrine01]

It’s early but the Nuggets look like they can win 70 games if they wanted to. Everything just looks so easy to them. They can mess around for a while when they get bored but when they want to put teams away they can seemingly do it on call.

And what’s with all of Jokic’s teammates suddenly becoming good passers? Even MPJ all of a sudden is throwing dimes.

i think you seriously underrate how difficult to win 70 games in the NBA. 2016 Warriors started the season with 24 straight wins..I will believe it when Nuggets win the first 15 straight.

It is. But the Nuggets got better and are coming off a historically dominant playoff run. They’re playing with an ease and comfort level I’ve only seen from 70-wins type teams.

Yeah they lost Bruce Brown but they got guys like Reggie Jackson, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun all pulling up the slack. Theyre bigger and more athletic this season which makes them look so much better on defense and on the other end, Jokic can make pretty much anyone look good on offense so I don’t think they really miss Bruce Brown all that much.

[MrLurker]

So Dame follows one of the best opening performances in history with one of the worst outings of entire career. Perhaps a good reminder to buy too heavily into the impression a single game or result.

On a separate note - perhaps there is a better place to ask this, but I would appreciate advice regarding which websites are considered permittable for one's profile image.

[The-Power]

To add to Doc, here's my list of top 3 candidates early on. Obviously this is just guessing at this point based on prior experiences, expected development and film study. As Doc mentioned, a lot will naturally also depend on team success due to the opportunity to show out in the playoffs.

1. POY
– Jokic, Luka, Tatum

Jokic is the obvious front runner to me. Luka I can see taking the next step after his ascendance has stopped a bit. A bit more consistent effort on defense and he might be there already if he can lead Dallas to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Tatum has been a top 5 contender before and I see no reason to not have him there again. And considering the other options, I feel like he's the safest pick ahead of established PoY-level players like Giannis, Embiid, and Curry (all of whom have more concerns in terms of injury, age, team and/or playoff performance) and the new kids on the block such as Booker, SGA and a couple others.

2. OPOY
– Jokic, Luka, Haliburton

Jokic requires no explanation. Luka with a small step forward may solidify the #2 offensive player in the league, especially as I think Curry (who was that to me before) may lose a bit of impact due to aging and ‘only’ be a top 3-5 offensive player in the league. Haliburton is my hipster pick. I think he was a clear top 10 offensive player last season already. With a year within Carlisle's offense and a bit more experience and aggression, I could see him entering the top 3. If not, guys like Curry, Booker, SGA and perhaps a couple others are looming.

3. DPOY
– Davis, Jackson Jr., Victor

I expect a big season from Davis and if healthy, he's probably the best defensive player in the league. JJJr is an obvious pick, too. He has been playing at DPOY level before and if he can keep it up and stay healthy, he'll be in the running again. Victor is the risky pick but I do believe that he's just that impactful on defense already (not on offense, though). The other two main contenders for me would be Gobert, as usual, and Mobley. I could see either of them having fantastic defensive seasons as well and contend for DPOY.

4. ROY
– Victor, Chet, Miller

Chet looks much better than expected on offense. On defense, he flashes potential of dominance but will struggle with a bunch of match-ups, too. I think Victor is still the safe option but Chet is respectable competition (and health may be a deciding factor, too). Going with Miller as my third choice as someone who should be able to contribute to winning in a clearly defined role while flashing enough potential to keep the audience intrigued. Scoot I see struggling on this Portland team but if he adjusts quickly, he may be able to turn the race around. My other candidate for the 3rd place was Ausar – he's so raw offensively but he contributes right away.

5. 6MOY
– C. Anthony, Okongwu, Quickley

I assume Okongwu's teammate Jalen Johnson starts from here on out or else he would also be an interesting candidate. Going with Cole as my #1 candidate because Orlando really needs PG creation and scoring, so if he can take it just a notch up from where he left off, he should be given many opportunities and be valuable in them. Quickley for his historical track record, and Okongwu as another player that could reasonably start on a bunch of teams.

6. MIP
– Not using 2nd year players, so this just feels futile at this point. Whoever makes the leap from star to superstar, or non-star to star, will again have the best odds to win. I could see Haliburton here but he was awesome already last year and it's tough to say what a clear realistic step up from him would look like. Cade is perhaps the most likely option as someone who goes from injured talent to leader of a non-terrible team. I'm wait-and-see on Maxey but it's possible. Some role players I could see thrive more include: Cam Thomas, Max Strus, Aaron Nesmith, Moses Moody and Jalen Johnson. But I'm sure early-season impressions, including new roles, make me a victim of recency bias here.

7. COY
– I expect a lot out of OKC, so Daigneault becomes an automatic contender if they indeed take the next step. Monty Williams in Detroit could get some buzz if the Pistons keep up their great defense. Carlisle could be in the running, too, if Indiana breaks out (similar to OKC). But in the end, we'll have to wait and see which teams exceed expectations and why. It might be a bit easier in the East this year, though.

8. EOY
– The obvious candidates here are those who made significant moves. We'll have to wait and see what moves pan out but it's easiest to build one's candidacy when there are big moves to point to. If Milwaukee wins the title, for instance, the Lillard move will be seen as key to that. If the Celtics get over the hump and win the title, their bold moves will also be viewed highly favorably in retrospect and vindicate the FO. But considering that moves during the season will also play a big role in the eventual assessment, it might not make sense to come up with a list yet.

9. BPOY (Breakout player of the year, for a player who made the leap to stardom or superstardom)
– I think Mobley, Cade and Barnes are all possibilities here. So is Anthony Edwards. Haliburton could be listed here, too, even though I'd argue that his breakout season may have been the last one. Maxey is a possibility. Jaden McDaniels could be interesting to watch here, too. And of course there are a bunch of second-year players that could take a big step forward (Banchero, Keegan, Jabari Smith, Duren) although I'm not sure any of them besides maybe Banchero (who I'm not as high on as others, however) makes the leap to at least stardom (at least when it comes to perception).

10. CPOY (Comeback player of the year, for a player who recovered from (a) subpar season(s))
– I genuinely hope this may end up being Westbrook's award after realizing that the focus on scoring and rebounding at the expense of other areas has limited his impact. It would be a feel-good story for sure. Zion is an obvious candidate if he can overcome his health issues for the season. Not sure who else to list. It'll once again be something to look for later on.

11. HPOY (Hustle player of the year, who made the most out if his opportunities due to sheer his energy and hustle)
– Okogie, Ausar, Okoro

Plenty of options here that could be mentioned as well (Suggs, GPII, Aaron Wiggins, Josh Green etc.) but these three players stood out the most to me early in the season. Their hustle not only keeps them in games but, thus far, turns them into key pieces on their respective teams. I hope they can keep the energy up and stay healthy because they have been a treat to watch and they have won me over (special shout-out to Suggs here, too, who deserves to be named in the same list as the other three and who I have not been particularly high on coming out of the draft).

[parsnips33]

I know everybody loves a good "guard in a big man's body", but GPII's "big man in a guard's body" routine has to be one of the most entertaining things in the league

He's become one of my favorite role players ever

[Clyde Frazier]

I know everybody loves a good "guard in a big man's body", but GPII's "big man in a guard's body" routine has to be one of the most entertaining things in the league

He's become one of my favorite role players ever

Add bruce brown to that list!

[penbeast0]

I know everybody loves a good "guard in a big man's body", but GPII's "big man in a guard's body" routine has to be one of the most entertaining things in the league

He's become one of my favorite role players ever

The new T.R. Dunn.

[rk2023]

Harden traded to the Clippers..

[Colbinii]

Imagine if Westbrook/Harden win a title in LAC. Imagine telling that to somebody in 2013.

[Owly]

Imagine if Westbrook/Harden win a title in LAC. Imagine telling that to somebody in 2013.

I wonder what the most places/teams a pair of players have been teammates at is and who the players are ...

I'd probably think of it in different groups
- any/all
- both players significant at some point
- both players in rotation at some (shared) point in their each shared teammate destination/duration.

Probably more interested in the latter more than "technically these players were routed through location Y, before each being sent to Z" or (not that they they're up there) "Salley and Edwards were teammates on the Bulls"-type situations.

[Bidofo]

Imagine if Westbrook/Harden win a title in LAC. Imagine telling that to somebody in 2013.

Imagine telling someone in 2016 "Curry will have the best start to a season in his career 7 years from now with a -26 on/off because of a dominant Chris Paul-led bench."

The old guard is doing quite well for themselves these days.

[The-Power]

I know it's a different topic entirely and I might be alone on this one, too. But watching Markelle Fultz glide over the court with the ball in his hands is legitimately one of the most joyous things to watch in basketball. It's such a shame he forgot to shoot and never recovered or else he would have been an awesome player. Still happy and impressed that he found a way back as a contributor after he had peak yips.

[Clyde Frazier]

I know it's a different topic entirely and I might be alone on this one, too. But watching Markelle Fultz glide over the court with the ball in his hands is legitimately one of the most joyous things to watch in basketball. It's such a shame he forgot to shoot and never recovered or else he would have been an awesome player. Still happy and impressed that he found a way back as a contributor after he had peak yips.

The magic have so many interesting players to watch. Rooting for suggs too with an uneven start to his career.