2023 Season

[CrimsonCrew]

Looks like it doesn't count for the compensatory formula:

https://overthecap.com/declined-team-options-will-no-longer-allow-players-to-become-compensatory-free-agents

In that case, Sweat might have made more sense.

Though Sweat went to the Bears for a second-rounder.

We have two upcoming comp 3rd round picks either way

Read on Twitter

?t=AahXTk_pNCvb-soC5JVG0A&s=19

Given that we used our two third-round comp picks this year on Moody and Latu (actually, one of those may have been our original pick, but still a very late 3rd), I'm fine with this. And Danny Gray and Ambry Thomas the two years before that. At least Chase will see the field.

[RIPskaterdude]

Looks like it doesn't count for the compensatory formula:

https://overthecap.com/declined-team-options-will-no-longer-allow-players-to-become-compensatory-free-agents

In that case, Sweat might have made more sense.

Though Sweat went to the Bears for a second-rounder.

We have two upcoming comp 3rd round picks either way

Read on Twitter

?t=AahXTk_pNCvb-soC5JVG0A&s=19

Given that we used our two third-round comp picks this year on Moody and Latu (actually, one of those may have been our original pick, but still a very late 3rd), I'm fine with this. And Danny Gray and Ambry Thomas the two years before that. At least Chase will see the field.

Everyone is reporting that if Chase leaves, the 49ers are eligible for a comp (depending on FA results), so who knows

[Samurai]

Looks like it doesn't count for the compensatory formula:

https://overthecap.com/declined-team-options-will-no-longer-allow-players-to-become-compensatory-free-agents

In that case, Sweat might have made more sense.

Though Sweat went to the Bears for a second-rounder.

We have two upcoming comp 3rd round picks either way

Read on Twitter

?t=AahXTk_pNCvb-soC5JVG0A&s=19

Given that we used our two third-round comp picks this year on Moody and Latu (actually, one of those may have been our original pick, but still a very late 3rd), I'm fine with this. And Danny Gray and Ambry Thomas the two years before that. At least Chase will see the field.

If we don't trade for a CB, another way to beef up our pass defense is to put relentless pressure on the QB. But the way our defense has created a "safe space" around opposing QB's this season, it may take more than just adding Chase.

[Jikkle]

Young was like 10th in PFF's pass rate win percentage and he's only going to cost just over $500k so I'm fine with spending a 3rd round comp pick on him especially since this is supposed to be a win now team.

The defensive line was already like 6th in the league in pressure so while it certainly makes the defense better I don't know how much of the issues it actually addresses with the defense. Wilks needs to call better games and we need our secondary to be able to play aggressive at the LOS.

The defensive line causes offenses to scheme up quick throws and we play right into that with our coverage by giving them cushions and easy throws.

[CrimsonCrew]

Oh, and re: the comp picks, it would have been for the 2025 draft, not 2024. Moot point either way.

[49er4life1979]

Chase Young for a 3rd rounder. Wow

That's aggressive, but I don't hate it. It's expensive for what is almost certainly a half-year rental, but he's a talented guy, has five sacks this year, and will be motivated as he's a FA this offseason. We have three third-round picks this year, and several fourth-rounders. Given the way we've used third-rounders, I'd rather have the proven player.

One thing I'm not certain about that would affect my view of this: can we get a comp pick for him if he goes to another team this year? He didn't get a fifth-year option, and I'm not sure in that case if players count toward the comp pick formula. If they do, it's a solid trade. Good chance we could recoup at least a fourth-rounder for him a year later. And maybe more if he goes on a tear.

He and Bosa reunited, which could be fun. That DL better start producing....

I don't see this being a rental. 5th year option or long term extension. Armstead is nearing the end of his contract.

[CrimsonCrew]

We have two upcoming comp 3rd round picks either way

Read on Twitter

?t=AahXTk_pNCvb-soC5JVG0A&s=19

Given that we used our two third-round comp picks this year on Moody and Latu (actually, one of those may have been our original pick, but still a very late 3rd), I'm fine with this. And Danny Gray and Ambry Thomas the two years before that. At least Chase will see the field.

Everyone is reporting that if Chase leaves, the 49ers are eligible for a comp (depending on FA results), so who knows

It's possible that article is outdated. I'll see if I can find an example of a comp pick going out for a player whose fifth-year option was declined.

[CrimsonCrew]

Chase Young for a 3rd rounder. Wow

That's aggressive, but I don't hate it. It's expensive for what is almost certainly a half-year rental, but he's a talented guy, has five sacks this year, and will be motivated as he's a FA this offseason. We have three third-round picks this year, and several fourth-rounders. Given the way we've used third-rounders, I'd rather have the proven player.

One thing I'm not certain about that would affect my view of this: can we get a comp pick for him if he goes to another team this year? He didn't get a fifth-year option, and I'm not sure in that case if players count toward the comp pick formula. If they do, it's a solid trade. Good chance we could recoup at least a fourth-rounder for him a year later. And maybe more if he goes on a tear.

He and Bosa reunited, which could be fun. That DL better start producing....

I don't see this being a rental. 5th year option or long term extension. Armstead is nearing the end of his contract.

His option was declined, so we'd have to sign him to a new contract.

We just restructured Armstead. His dead cap hit next year would be $26 million. Though that would actually be $2 million in savings. Still, pretty tough to eat that for a guy who isn't on the roster. The Armstead restructure makes me crazy; $15.5 million in dead cap in 2025, $5.5 million in 2026, and $3 million in 2027. That's inexcusable for a team that may have to sign a QB to big money in 2025.

It's pretty clear we need to prioritize extending Aiyuk at this point. Our receivers without him are garbage, and Jennings is likely gone this year anyway. We have a ton of money sunk into our front-four as it is. Maybe they find a way to keep Aiyuk and Young, but I don't see how.

Oh, and apparently the pick can become a second. Not sure what the terms of that are.

[CrimsonCrew]

Given that we used our two third-round comp picks this year on Moody and Latu (actually, one of those may have been our original pick, but still a very late 3rd), I'm fine with this. And Danny Gray and Ambry Thomas the two years before that. At least Chase will see the field.

Everyone is reporting that if Chase leaves, the 49ers are eligible for a comp (depending on FA results), so who knows

It's possible that article is outdated. I'll see if I can find an example of a comp pick going out for a player whose fifth-year option was declined.

This is an interesting situation, as I'm relying on Over the Cap's comp pick projections (which are almost always spot on) while the article also came from Over the Cap. But in 2020, Tennessee did not give Corey Davis a fifth-year option. He went to the Jets, and the Titans got a fourth-round comp pick for him. So maybe Young is comp pick eligible.

[Samurai]

Everyone is reporting that if Chase leaves, the 49ers are eligible for a comp (depending on FA results), so who knows

It's possible that article is outdated. I'll see if I can find an example of a comp pick going out for a player whose fifth-year option was declined.

This is an interesting situation, as I'm relying on Over the Cap's comp pick projections (which are almost always spot on) while the article also came from Over the Cap. But in 2020, Tennessee did not give Corey Davis a fifth-year option. He went to the Jets, and the Titans got a fourth-round comp pick for him. So maybe Young is comp pick eligible.

According to ESPN (who graded this trade an "A" for the Niners), our options after this season with Young are a) sign him to a long-term deal, b) franchise tag him, or c) let him walk and recoup a high compensatory pick. So that sounds like a very good trade for us.

Still kinda wish we had made a deal to get a CB, but maybe things will improve when Womack returns.

[CrimsonCrew]

ESPN's pass rush win rates this season:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

Young is 11th in win rate, topping Bosa, who is 17th. Interestingly, they're the second and third guys in terms of most plays, both over 150. Ideally, we'd be able to rotate them a little bit more and keep them fresher. Hargrave (8th) and Armstead (20th) are also both top-20 along the interior.

Absolutely no excuse at this point for this group not to take over games. They've got front-line talent. They've got depth. They need to start making a profound impact.

[arich35]

Good low risk deal that makes the defense more talented. I can't say better because Wilks still needs to put these players in the position to succeed and I don't have a lot of faith he will

[Samurai]

Good low risk deal that makes the defense more talented. I can't say better because Wilks still needs to put these players in the position to succeed and I don't have a lot of faith he will

Agree. If we are successful in putting more pressure on the QB, they will be forced to go with faster, shorter throws. But if Wilks keeps giving huge cushions for their receivers, it will continue to be as easy to complete those shorter throws just as it was for Cincy. Unless and until Wilks improves, just throwing different players into a poor scheme won't change things.

[wco81]

Second pick of his draft class so worth a shot.

Obviously hasn’t produced like Bosa in his career but had ACL.

How is he vs. the run and at the point of attack as a lighter end?

[Samurai]

Second pick of his draft class so worth a shot.

Obviously hasn’t produced like Bosa in his career but had ACL.

How is he vs. the run and at the point of attack as a lighter end?

Clearly better as a pass rusher than against the run. His overall PFF grade of 75.4 is 31st. His pass rush grade is 79.7 (15th), 18.4 percent pass rush win rate (13th), 24.1 percent win rate on true pass sets (20th). But against the run his overall grade is 58.1 (78th), 4.6 percent run stop rate (71st).

[wco81]

Second pick of his draft class so worth a shot.

Obviously hasn’t produced like Bosa in his career but had ACL.

How is he vs. the run and at the point of attack as a lighter end?

Clearly better as a pass rusher than against the run. His overall PFF grade of 75.4 is 31st. His pass rush grade is 79.7 (15th), 18.4 percent pass rush win rate (13th), 24.1 percent win rate on true pass sets (20th). But against the run his overall grade is 58.1 (78th), 4.6 percent run stop rate (71st).

So maybe a pass rush specialist but I'm sure he wants to play all downs to get a bigger contract.

What about dropping into coverage?

[Harry Palmer]

Trying to decide something on Wilks.

His scheme is more complex than his predecessors. Not saying that as an automatic criticism, though of course it might be; modern football might be ideally attuned to simplicity for defences given the turnover and multiple looks…but in any event it’s a difference. I am trying to decide if it’s just a bad fit or if we’re just in a place where other teams have found our new holes and we aren’t familiar enough with the system to cover them up yet. Obviously this started to become of concern with Bosa’s late signing, but prior systems being so simple might have underprepared us for the difference Bosa being behind would make this year. Can’t decide.

In any event, barring a major turnaround this will be one less comp pick than we’ve become used to getting. Ie is more time the obvious answer and we’ve been spoiled to think this would always be seamless, or square peg, rooundish hole, the sooner we make a change the better? Though finding a coordinator in your bye week is not typically how top teams operate. Obviously the Chase trade means, for now, the heat is not immediately under Wilks’ chair, but should it be?

Thoughts?

[CrimsonCrew]

Browns signed OT Leroy Watson from our PS. That's a kick in the crotch. We have zero developmental OTs on this roster, and a 35-yo starter at LT. Huge oversight by this FO, and pretty frickin' frustrating given other positions they have thrown wasted picks at (backup TE, multiple backup RBs who can't see the field, a WR who can't see the field, etc.).

[CrimsonCrew]

Posted this in the Purdy thread, but I think it's relevant here, as well.

This isn't so much a Purdy thing as an offense thing, but this seemed like the logical area to post this. Might also post it in the 2023 season threat. One area of pretty consistent criticism from outsiders about the Niners' offense is the drop-back passing game. Guys like JT O'Sullivan - who is quite complimentary of Kyle's creativity with motion, play action, etc. - are quite critical of the design pure drop-back game.

I'm not meaning to take blame off of Purdy here. He made some bad decisions and bad throws in crunch time the past couple weeks. But I do think there's something to our offense becoming limited when teams know we have to throw it. Part of that also ties into personnel. We don't necessarily have receivers who can run different routes, give a lot of different looks, and really confuse the opposing defense. Typically, our WRs stay in their lanes. That makes it somewhat easier for LBs to look at Aiyuk on the in-breaking deep routes, especially when you remove the screen-to-Deebo threat.

This bye week, our coaches need to be doing a deep dive into what is ailing this team. And I think Kyle needs to take a long look at his drop-back game and reassess some of his approaches. I don't know how much of that can change during the season, but it's become pretty clear that that this team - and Kyle offense's historically - struggle when they have to lean on the pass late in games.

[49er4life1979]

Good news that per Deebo today he's ready to go. He's been missed more than we all thought.

As for the Chase Young trade, yes we basically gave up nothing and got a great deal. Bosa should definitely see less double teams. But even so, it all still hinges on the secondary. The soft zone allowing QBs to get the ball out quickly needs to end. Mooney has been a penalty machine and Oliver has not been good at all at nickel. Lenoir has been the only decent corner on the team and the fact opposing QBs don't target him much is very good. We are definitely missing someone like a K'Waun Williams or Jimmie Ward at nickel. It is truly my hope that corner gets really addressed in the off-season. Better corner play will help produce even more pressure and sacks.