RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Elgin Baylor)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Elgin Baylor) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Nov 13, 2023 4:47 pm

No Nomination vote this thread due to 2 added to list last time.

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Elgin Baylor
Image

Clyde Drexler
Image

Draymond Green
Image

Dwight Howard
Image

Kevin McHale
Image

Russell Westbrook
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As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Mon Nov 13, 2023 5:14 pm

VOTE: Elgin Baylor
Alternate: Kevin McHale

(Would nominate Paul Pierce and Dave Cowens)

Baylor is really the only choice for me here and seems like the prohibitive favourite regardless. He did drop off dramatically after 1963, but he had an impressive five-year prime run and was still by rights one of the league’s top forwards afterward. Next round I am less clear on how I will vote, but I will probably at least start with McHale. I am hoping Pierce makes it in with some of the Drexler votes switching over to him; I would have been voting for him outright for several rounds now, as I had him in the same tiering as Kidd and Gilmore.

Cowens will be my other nomination as a guy I see as essential to the “story” of the 1970s to a degree not true of Lanier (although I think Lanier was better), and therefore a relatively “necessary” top 50 inclusion. Right now it does not appear as though he will make the top 50, but I do want to push hard for him as the centrepiece of the most successful team of the mid-1970s and a sort of progenitor to what Draymond has been for the Warriors.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#3 » by Mogspan » Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:19 pm

I have tremendous respect for Draymond's game, but I'd have to go with Dwight here: 5x All-NBA First Team, 3x DPOY, 8x All-Star, 10th all-time in rebounds, 13th all-time in blocks, best player on a Finalist that beat athletic peak LeBron, legitimate contributor on a championship team at 34 years old. Could Orlando Dwight have rivaled Draymond's defensive impact if he hadn't had to worry about producing 20+ ppg on +12 TS%? I think so. Draymond, as GREAT as he is, is lucky to have been on some incredibly complementary teams in his athletic prime.

As much of a locker room cancer as Dwight was accused of being, he never assaulted a teammate, got himself suspended in the middle of a historically significant series, nor bullied an MVP-caliber player out of town. We may want to restrict discussions like these to on-court production, but it's clear that Draymond, like Terrell Owens, has effectively hurt his team's title chances more than once - and that's a worthwhile consideration when we're talking about career value.
Also, something that might surprise people. I think when it comes to athleticism, agility, physical attributes and skill I rate LeBron only in the top 50.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#4 » by iggymcfrack » Mon Nov 13, 2023 6:30 pm

So between Westbrook and Baylor:

-Both were tremendous bulk scorers who struggled with efficiency

-Both rebounded excellently for their position

-Both were mediocre defenders

-Both had a very strong 6 year prime followed up with less successful seasons

The only real differences to me seem to be that Westbrook did it in a tougher era and that he’s a MUCH better passer/playmaker. What’s Baylor’s edge? Is he just Westbrook without the assists or am I missing something? I guess he’s slightly more efficient relative to era, but I think that’s just because his era was so much less efficient.

Baylor and Westbrook are almost identical free throw shooters and neither one’s particularly effective from the mid-range. Westbrook’s expected to be able to make threes to compete with the top scorers and be efficient while Baylor can just have a TS% under .500 and it’s good enough.

It seems like Westbrook has one really huge edge (passing and creation for others) while any little edges for Baylor are pretty nebulous and hard to find. What is the case for Baylor over Westbrook exactly?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#5 » by trelos6 » Mon Nov 13, 2023 7:21 pm

Vote: Dwight Howard

Image

One of the best defensive players of all time. His peak was arguably a top 3 player in the league. Offensively,he was limited, but what he did was effective. Great catch radius. Some monster dunks. 20.7 pp75 on +8.7% rTS. In the playoffs, he was still 23.2 pp75 on +10.7% for his 3 year peak. He was a monster down low.

I have him with 3 weak MVP seasons, 8 All NBA, 9 All Star, and 12 All D.

Alternate vote: Westbrook

See nomination description below.

Nomination: Joel Embiid

Alt. Nom: Gary Payton

It comes down to Westbrook v Embiid. Guys like Pierce, McHale, Payton, Isiah, didn’t reach the heights of Westbrook or Embiid. One was a high octane play creator, the other a fantastic defensive presence. Both were force of will scorers. I think I’ll give the nod to Jojo. Although I can appreciate the Westbrook argument.

It was between Pierce and Payton. I’ll give it to Gary this round.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:33 pm

Once again glad to at least see my alternate get in, but definitely nothing has changed wrt to my primary vote. I personally feel we're overdue on Baylor (perhaps by a far bit at this point).

Induction Vote: Elgin Baylor

Piggy-backing on comments from post #28 of the #39 thread......

A partial case for Baylor follows:

Spoiler:
The opening salvo to get Elgin Baylor on the list of eligible candidates (from my archives):


I view him as a very good [not great] scorer in his era.......a modern(ish) comp [as a scorer only] maybe being Carmelo Anthony.

But although he's a touch shorter than Melo, I'm not sure he wouldn't be a slightly better rebounder, even in the modern era. I know the league was marginally shorter and a bit less athletic at that time, but Baylor's pre-injury rebounding numbers are resoundingly impressive. Here are his reb/100 possession estimates by year:
'59: 15.3
'60: 15.85
'61: 17.75
'62: 16.3
‘63: 13.9

For comparison, here are some notable big-time big-men and their reb/100 possession estimates for the same years (and relation to Baylor's avg):
Pettit
'59: 17.1 (+1.8)
'60: 16.9 (+1.05)
'61: 18.9 (+1.15)
'62: 17.1 (+0.8)
‘63: 16.0 (+2.1)

Wilt
'59: na
'60: 20.9 (+5.05)
'61: 20.7 (+2.95)
'62: 19.4 (+3.1)
‘63: 19.9 (+6.0)

Russell
'59: 20.2 (+4.9)
'60: 19.9 (+4.05)
'61: 19.3 (+1.55)
'62: 16.3 (+2.8)
‘63: 19.9 (+6.0)

Wayne Embry
'59: 15.5 (+0.2)
'60: 17.1 (+1.25)
'61: 15.1 (-2.65)
'62: 14.3 (-2.0)
‘63: 15.0 (+1.1)

Walter Dukes
'59: 16.7 (+1.4)
'60: 16.1 (+0.25)
'61: 19.2 (+1.45)
'62: 16.4 (+0.1)
‘63: 15.7 (+1.8)

Dolph Schayes
'59: 14.4 (-0.9)
'60: 13.2 (-2.65)
'61: 11.9 (-5.85)
'62: 11.05 (-5.25)

Bailey Howell
'59: na
'60: 13.1 (-2.75)
'61: 14.3 (-3.45)
'62: 13.5 (-2.8)
‘63: 12.2 (-1.7)

When viewing that I'd note two things: every single one of those guys is taller than Elgin, and every single one of them was more a low-post player on one or both ends (so presumably would more frequently [than Elgin] be in the position to grab rebounds). And yet he's at least in the neighborhood of all of them except for Wilt and Russell----who are both a) legitimately BIG and b) legitimately freakish athletes, and c) considered on the short-list of greatest rebounders ever (and even Russell isn't far ahead of him in '61, fwiw).
Otherwise Baylor's reasonably close to everyone else, and well ahead of Schayes and Howell (though admittedly Schayes is trickling into his post-prime for most of the years referenced here).

He was a thick strong guy, good at creating space with his lower body, could jump (isn't he labeled the "grandfather of hang-time" or some such?), and seems to have had great anticipation for where the rebound was going (a la Jerry Lucas, Fat Lever, and Jason Kidd). All this has me suspecting that Baylor would be special kind of rebounder for the SF position in any era (maybe likened to Shawn Marion in this regard).


Basic WOWY:
‘59: 33-37 (.471) with, 0-2 without
‘60: 23-47 (.329) with, 2-3 (.400) without
‘61: 34-39 (.466) with, 2-4 (.333) without
‘62: 37-11 (.771) with, 17-15 (.531) without **West missed only 5 games, no one else in the regular rotation missed more than 2 games
‘63: 52-28 (.650) with


The Lakers in ‘58 were 19-53 with an SRS of -5.78. And then they obtained rookie Elgin Baylor.
In ‘59--with Baylor being the only relevant player acquisition--they improved by 14 games to 33-39, SRS of -1.42 (+4.36 improvement); also made it to the finals (defeating the 2.89 SRS defending champion Hawks 4-2 along the way). That strikes me as indication of fairly significant impact.

The big criticism on Baylor has been his offensive efficiency (relative to his astronomical volume), and whether he was really “helping” the offense.

The Laker team offensive rating improved with rookie Baylor by +2.8 (+1.4 in rORTG terms) in ‘59. I won’t claim that Baylor always “helped the offense optimally” to the best of his abilities; but I do think he helped it. Obviously other metrics of offensive production/efficiency suggest Baylor was a “big deal” (more on that below)......but what I’m beginning to wonder about is whether or not Baylor had a defensive impact that hasn’t been properly appreciated.

Maybe his capability as a rebounder eliminated a lot of second-chance points for opponents????

idk, but something I noted is that the Laker team rDRTG improved by -2.8 in ‘59. In ‘58, they were 8th of 8 defensively, DRtg +4.5 over league avg and +2.5 over the next worse team.
In ‘59, improved to +1.7 over league avg (6th of 8).
They would continue to improve defensively over the next couple of seasons with acquisitions of Jerry West and aging Ray Felix. And then interestingly their defense appears to suffer slightly in ‘62 when Baylor misses significant games:
In ‘61, the Laker DRtg is -1.3 to league average (again: minus is good), 4th of 8.
In ‘62 Baylor misses 32 games and the Laker DRtg falls a little: just -0.3 vs league average (though still 4th of 9).
In ‘63: no more big Ray Felix in playing significant minutes in the middle and Jerry West misses 25 games (things you’d expect to hurt the team defense); they otherwise obtain guard Dick Barnett, and the only other change from the previous year is that Baylor is healthy (doesn’t miss a game)…….and the team DRtg improves to -1.2 vs league average (3rd of 9).
And then beginning in ‘64 (perhaps non-coincidentally just as Baylor begins to be significantly hampered by knee injuries, which causes his overall effectiveness to suffer, as seen by sudden drop in PER, etc), the Laker team DRtg takes a sudden dip……...And it would never recovery to a better than average team defense (even with big bodies like Darrall Imhoff and Mel Counts) until ‘69 when they obtained Wilt Chamberlain.

So I’m starting to wonder if Baylor had a bigger impact defensively than he’s typically given credit for.
And I sort of wonder if he isn't like Carmelo Anthony scoring, Shawn Marion on the glass, with defense somewhere in between (and a little better passer than either). That's an awfully good player.

Anyway…..
Otherwise, I promised some tidbits regarding his overall production and efficiency during his prime years:

In ‘59 and rookie Elgin Baylor had the 2nd-highest PER in the league, behind only a peak Bob Pettit.
In ‘60 he had the 2nd-highest PER in the league, behind only Wilt Chamberlain.
In ‘61: he had the highest PER (even ahead of Wilt, not to mention Pettit and rookie Oscar Robertson).
‘62 and ‘63: 2nd-best PER in the league both years, behind only Wilt Chamberlain (even ahead of triple-double season Robertson, as well as Pettit and Walt Bellamy’s insane rookie season).

That’s a super-impressive 5-year span. Yes, he drops off quite a bit after, but it’s not as though he faded into obscurity or ineffectiveness in subsequent years. He was a relevant player until ‘70. So…..


For another comparison:

Kevin Durant (‘10-’14) rs
Per 100 Possessions: 38.7 pts, 10.0 reb, 5.1 ast on 61.7% TS% (+8.0% on league avg)
26.9 PER, .250 WS/48 in 38.8 mpg

Elgin Baylor (‘59-’63) rs
Estimated Per 100 Possessions: 30.3 pts, 15.7 reb, 4.2 ast on 49.9 TS% (+2.7%)
26.1 PER, .195 WS/48 in 42.1 mpg


Kevin Durant (‘10-’14) playoffs
Per 100 Possessions: 35.8 pts, 10.2 reb, 5.2 ast on .583 TS% (+4.6%)
24.4 PER, .189 WS/48 in 42.3 mpg

Elgin Baylor (‘59-’63) playoffs
Estimated Per 100 Possessions: 30.4 pts, 13.2 reb, 3.5 ast on 51.2 TS% (+4.0%)
25.1 PER, .183 WS/48 in 44.0 mpg


Spoiler:
When thinking about what has driven improvement in the league......integration has helped, but I suspect most of us agree that probably the biggest factor is size of player pool.

And obviously things like scheming/coaching/strategy/analytics have helped toward getting players guided toward better and more effective outcomes. Skills training, shot mechanics, etc, have also evolved, improving the all-around quality of play. However, these latter things are all EXTRINSIC factors: they are things that players from 50-60 years ago would have absorbed if they had been immersed in them from day one (like today's players).

Otherwise, increasing the size of the player pool that the league can tap into is probably the largest driver of improved player quality.

And I think arguably the biggest driver in player pool size is the popularity of the game. As such, I think there is something to be said for those players who were, quite simply, big draws: the guys that put butts in seats, and who inspired the imaginations of younger generations of players.

I bring this up as another small plug for Elgin Baylor. In his time, he was certainly someone who fits this distinction. I'll offer one quote:

John Taylor [from The Rivalry: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Golden Age of Basketball (p. 206-207)] wrote:“.....Fans specifically came to see him [Baylor]. When he was on military duty and playing sporadically, they called the box office before games to ask if he would be appearing. The Lakers front office had run figures calculating Baylor’s ability to sell tickets, and they determined that in games when he did not play, the Lakers drew an average of 2,000 fewer fans. That amounted to approximately $6,000 per game, or $200,000 over the course of a season….”


Will also quote FrogBros4Life from prior thread:

Spoiler:
FrogBros4Life wrote:I was going through my collection of old basketball magazines the other day, pulled a few out at random to read, and noticed that one of them had two different pieces on Baylor. The first is a small blurb by Marv Albert where he lists his 1st and 2nd All-Time Teams (mirroring the All-NBA format with 2 guards, 2 forwards, and a center) with Baylor as one of his forwards on the first team.

The other is a longer editorial focusing specifically on Baylor. Since Baylor is currently one of the nominees this round, I thought I would transcribe both bits from the magazine for anyone who might find them interesting. There's nothing here statistically that isn't readily available on bbref, but I thought both write-ups had some nice insight into Baylor, of how esteemed he was during his playing days and also the perception of him after he had been retired for some time.

I'll start with the Marv Albert column, though I'll only include the part that is pertinent to Baylor.

"[...] That, in fact, was the litmus test, the final determining factor, in determining my all-time NBA team: What innovations did a player bring to the game that have changed the way it was played? And would a player from, say, the 1950's or 1960's be able to adapt to toady's game, where the players are bigger, faster and stronger? With that in mind, I now submit:

The First Team
=====================

Forwards: Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird
Center: Bill Russell
Guards: Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson

Let's start with Baylor. As much as people say Julius Erving changed the game, Baylor did it before him. He was Julius before Julius.

It's not just the numbers he put up, which, at 27.4 points and 13.5 rebounds per game for his career, are spectacular. Baylor was just unstoppable. And he was an original, with a wide array of head fakes and other moves that really hadn't been seen around the NBA before. He was only 6'5, but he had incredible leaping ability, which people who only remember him from late in his career may not have gotten a full appreciation of because of the knee problem which began to plague him.

Hopefully, that same fate won't befall younger fans who are only now getting to see Bird [...]"


For reference, his second team selections were Julius Erving & Bob Pettit as the forwards, Oscar Robertson & Jerry West as the guards, and Wilt Chamberlain as the center. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar received an honorable mention along with several other players such as Dolph Schayes (who Baylor is competing with now on the ballot) and George Mikan. Marv called Mikan the first great big man in NBA history, but, perhaps surprisingly, claimed that Mikan would only be an average center in the 90's due to his lack of mobility and gracefulness.

The magazine containing these articles is from the spring of 1992. For something published at this time, I don't think having Baylor slotted in one of the two All-Time teams was seen as a hot take or controversial. Maybe having Baylor over Erving on the 1st Team was seen as debatable, but certainly not incomprehensible. I can personally recall Baylor still being something of a consensus top 10-12 player of all time by as late as 1990 along with Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Robertson, West, Magic, Bird, Erving, Moses Malone, Mikan, Pettit and perhaps Cousy and/or Barry. So Marv's picks seem to fall in place with this line of thinking.


Now onto the second piece on Baylor, a much longer article which I will post in full:


Elgin Baylor: Scoring Machine (by Sam Goldpaper)
=================================================

Fifty-three minutes, 22 of 41 from the field, 19 of 21 from the free throw line, six assists, three steals, 63 points. Nobody has ever scored as many points in an NBA Playoff game.

It was theatre at the Boston Garden, April 20, 1986. Michael Jordan, who had missed 64 regular season games with a broken bone in his left foot, was at his best -- leaping, jump shooting, driving, rebounding and smiling.

But it wasn't enough. The 67-15 Boston Celtics, en route to the NBA championship, defeated the 30-52 Chicago Bulls 135-131 in double overtime in the second game of a 3-0 first round sweep.

Before there were such showmen as Jordan, Julius Erving and Connie Hawkins, there was Elgin Baylor. He was the first to let it all hang up there.

Thirty years ago -- 24 years before Jordan's 63 point playoff outburst -- also at the Boston Garden, Baylor piled up 61 points against a different breed of Celtics, and he did not need two overtime periods to accomplish the feat.

On April 14, 1962, with the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles tied at 2-2, it was all Baylor in Game 5. His 61 points in an NBA Finals game remain in the league record book three decades later. So do his 33 points in the first half and his 22 field goals in a Finals game, which came on 46 attempts, 25 in the opening half. The Lakers won the game 126-121, but Boston won the title in seven games.

"Elgin was just a machine in that game", recalled Tom "Satch" Sanders, who had the unpleasant task of guarding Baylor that night. Bob Cousy, who was in his 12th season as the Celtics' playmaker at the time, remembered too. "You wouldn't believe it", said Cousy, "but Satch played great defense against Elgin. I recall telling him after the game that he did a heck of a job. He made Baylor work for every shot and take shots he didn't want to take. I knew it, Red Auerbach knew it, everybody who played - the thinking at the time was that unless you're able to hold your man to 10 or 12 points, you're not doing a good job defensively. It's wrong."

Jerry West, currently the Lakers' general manager, agreed with Cousy. "Elgin had that wonderful, magical instinct for making plays and doing things that you had to stop and watch. That was one of those nights". When asked about that night, Baylor, who currently is the general manager of the Los Angeles Clippers said "All I remember is that we won the game. I never thought about how many points I had".

While never considered an outstanding defensive player, Baylor's opponents regarded him as the most devastating one-man offense in the game when the need for a crucial basket arose. Scoring always looked easy for Baylor. Not only did he have exceptional body control, the ability to float in mid-air and change position of the ball and direction of his move, he had enough basic muscle strength to dominate opponents one-on-one. He knew how to use that strength, he was fast, he was shifty and he could jump.

Sometimes he would nestle the ball at his hip, permitting an opponent to make a last desperate swipe at it, and then shoot it gently against the backboard and into the basket. Other times, he would go into the air with a defender and force his way by his man, using his thick arms and broad shoulders to protect the ball. But regardless of how he scored, he did so with a fluid grace quite remarkable for someone who stood 6'5 and weighed 225 lbs.

Baylor also had few peers as a rebounder. His numbers were astonishing for a man his height. During the 1960-61 season, his second in the league, he finished fourth in rebounding with 19.8 per game, behind Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Bob Pettit. Much of that was because of his relentless pursuit of the ball. Sometimes he would go after a tap as many as three or four times.

"In all my years in the NBA, I can't remember a player quite like Elgin", said West, his longtime Laker teammate and the other half of one of pro basketball's most potent 1-2 combinations. "He was without a doubt truly one of the great people to play this game. I hear people talking about forwards today and I haven't seen many that can compare with him. Not only did he have the skills to make him great, he was bull strong and very daring. I think he was one of the most spectacular shooters the game has ever seen".

When Baylor joined Minneapolis in 1958, the Lakers were a troubled franchise. The great George Mikan teams that won four NBA championships in the early 1950's were a thing of the past. That spring, the Lakers finished last in the West Division (19 W - 53 L) with a team that was slow, bulky and aging. Dick Garmaker was really their only first-class shooter.

Baylor's NBA arrival was heralded. He had led Seattle University to the NCAA finals as a junior. The Knicks, who had finished last in the East, had tried to persuade Baylor to stay in school for another year and re-enter the draft. Though the Lakers could have used the money, they found it difficult to sell off someone whom the experts had considered a player who had the capability to save a franchise. Baylor finally signed with the Lakers for $20,000 a year, a huge amount of money in those days.

The Lakers' fortunes reversed themselves as Baylor became Rookie Of The Year. Attendance doubled as he finished fourth in the league in scoring (24.9), third in rebounding (15.0), and ninth in assists, leading the Lakers to a second place finish in the West (33 W - 39 L), an improvement of 14 victories over the prior season. He had a 55 point game, which at the time was the third-best in league history behind Joke Fulks' 63 and Mikan's 61. He also shared MVP honors with Pettit at the All-Star game.

Baylor's individual statistics improved in his sophomore season as he averaged 29.6 points and 16.4 rebounds. His assists dropped off some but that was as much the fault of the Lakers, a weak team that struggled into the playoffs with a 25-50 mark. Baylor averaged 33.4 points in the nine playoff games.

For the 1960-61 season, the Lakers moved from snowy Minneapolis to sunny California, a shift that Baylor helped turn into a rousing success story. Baylor's season included a 71 point performance on Nov. 15, 1961 against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden that was a league record for about three weeks -- until Chamberlain's 78 point, three overtime game against the Lakers on Dec. 8, 1961.

Johnny Green, the Knicks' fine jumping-jack forward who played against Baylor in that 71 point game, recalled with a smile, "Elgin did nothing unusual in that game. It was just a typical Baylor performance. He just came down the floor, his teammates would clear out an area and he's shoot -- a jump shot or a driving layup, followed up by a rebound if he missed. If you had a film of the game and broke it up into 30 second segments each segment would look perfectly ordinary. Each particular shot had nothing amazing about it. It was just that Elgin was such an amazing player".

Baylor remembered too. "When my total reached 59," Baylor said, "I suddenly realized that I was close to the record. For the first time I got nervous. Then Fred Schaus told the team to feed me the ball, and I couldn't even hit the backboard. That's how bad the pressure was. I begged the other guys not to pass me the ball. They did anyway, and that's how I got the 71 points".

He also pulled down 25 rebounds, demonstrating that he was anything but a basket-hanger on his biggest scoring night. "It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy", said Schaus, the Lakers coach at the time. "The other fellows just loved him. The good Lord gave him everything he needed in physical equipment, and he had the right temperament to go with it".

Baylor was in the Army, stationed at Fort Lewis, WA about half of the 1961-62 season, usually able to play only on weekend passes. In all he played in 48 of the 80 games and averaged an amazing 38.2 ppg, a pace exceeded only by Chamberlain, who averaged a record 50.4 ppg.

During the playoffs, the shortened regular season seemed to do wonders for Baylor. Able to play in all 13 games, he averaged 38.6 ppg, the best mark of his career.

The Lakers, who won the Western Division title with a 54-26 record, 11 games ahead of The Cincinnati Royals, had little trouble eliminating the Detroit Pistons in six games in the Conference Finals before losing to the Celtics in seven games for the NBA title.

Isn't it ironic that Baylor scored his Finals-record 61 points during a season curtailed by Army duty, and Jordan got his Playoff-record 63 points following a regular season marred by injury that limited him to 18 games?

Baylor, in the Basketball Hall Of Fame, and Jordan, headed there -- the exciting, high-scoring giants of their time.

==================================================================

I'm not sure I would vote for Baylor first among the current group of candidates (I can see an argument for Westbrook over Baylor), but I'll echo T-rex's sentiment that Baylor's induction seems like it may be a bit overdue at this point.



Suffice to say that I think we're getting on toward long overdue for having Baylor. I don't think his career is behind that of Rick Barry, for instance (and I'd have a hard time believing he's FAR behind him [Barry having gone in 4 places ago, iirc]).


Alt. Induction Vote: Clyde Drexler
Made some partial arguments for him toward end of last thread, though I doubt my alternate matters in this particular round.


FOR PURPOSES OF ANY RUN-OFF, I go:
Baylor > Drexler > Westbrook > McHale > Howard > Green
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#7 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:46 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:So between Westbrook and Baylor:

-Both were tremendous bulk scorers who struggled with efficiency

-Both rebounded excellently for their position

-Both were mediocre defenders

-Both had a very strong 6 year prime followed up with less successful seasons

The only real differences to me seem to be that Westbrook did it in a tougher era and that he’s a MUCH better passer/playmaker. What’s Baylor’s edge? Is he just Westbrook without the assists or am I missing something? I guess he’s slightly more efficient relative to era, but I think that’s just because his era was so much less efficient.

Baylor and Westbrook are almost identical free throw shooters and neither one’s particularly effective from the mid-range. Westbrook’s expected to be able to make threes to compete with the top scorers and be efficient while Baylor can just have a TS% under .500 and it’s good enough.

It seems like Westbrook has one really huge edge (passing and creation for others) while any little edges for Baylor are pretty nebulous and hard to find. What is the case for Baylor over Westbrook exactly?


I don't see Westbrook as someone who should be getting passer/playmaker boost in comparisons in general. He got the assists he got because he was allowed to utterly dominate the ball, and while his prime threat as a scorer may have made that the best approach, in general he's not the guy I'd want as my primary passer for a team. As an example, at UCLA he played in a backcourt with Darren Collison. Collison was a better passer then, and I don't think that ever changed. I think Collison could probably walk back into the NBA out of retirement right now and still make better passes and decisions than Westbrook.

I also think Baylor should be noted as a playmaker. We're not just talking about a random big here. Baylor led the break and absolutely made beautiful passes to his teammates. I'm very critical of his decision making as he did this, but it's not clear he was worse in his ability there than Westbrook.

What I would give Westbrook the edge on is that he played as an ultrahigh primacy playmaker and had it work pretty well. Could he have done this with West as his teammate? No, because it would be foolish to give him primacy over West. But since Westbrook played his best years without a West-level playmaker next to him, he did achieve things as a playmaker that go beyond what Baylor did.

In terms of who I'd rank higher, I find it to be an excellent question. They have a lot in common.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#8 » by LA Bird » Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:53 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:So between Westbrook and Baylor:

-Both were tremendous bulk scorers who struggled with efficiency

...

I guess he’s slightly more efficient relative to era, but I think that’s just because his era was so much less efficient.

Baylor is more than just slighty more efficient relative to era. He has a career TS Add of +533.7 while Westbrook is at -1108.4 and he has 6 seasons with a TS Add above Westbrook's peak.

Westbrook has 4 playoff series his entire career with relative TS% at least +1 against league average:
+2.8 vs 10 Lakers
+2.7 vs 12 Lakers
+7.7 vs 14 Clippers
+3.4 vs 16 Mavs

Baylor did that in 7 out of 8 playoff series at his peak:
+12.9 vs 60 Pistons
+7.2 vs 60 Hawks
+9.9 vs 61 Pistons
+4.9 vs 61 Hawks
+1.6 vs 62 Pistons
+3.1 vs 62 Celtics
+4.2 vs 63 Celtics

Baylor was inefficient compared to West and Oscar but he was still quite efficient relative to era at his peak. I have Westbrook ranked higher overall but specifically on just scoring efficiency, Baylor is easily ahead.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#9 » by iggymcfrack » Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:38 pm

LA Bird wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:So between Westbrook and Baylor:

-Both were tremendous bulk scorers who struggled with efficiency

...

I guess he’s slightly more efficient relative to era, but I think that’s just because his era was so much less efficient.

Baylor is more than just slighty more efficient relative to era. He has a career TS Add of +533.7 while Westbrook is at -1108.4 and he has 6 seasons with a TS Add above Westbrook's peak.

Westbrook has 4 playoff series his entire career with relative TS% at least +1 against league average:
+2.8 vs 10 Lakers
+2.7 vs 12 Lakers
+7.7 vs 14 Clippers
+3.4 vs 16 Mavs

Baylor did that in 7 out of 8 playoff series at his peak:
+12.9 vs 60 Pistons
+7.2 vs 60 Hawks
+9.9 vs 61 Pistons
+4.9 vs 61 Hawks
+1.6 vs 62 Pistons
+3.1 vs 62 Celtics
+4.2 vs 63 Celtics

Baylor was inefficient compared to West and Oscar but he was still quite efficient relative to era at his peak. I have Westbrook ranked higher overall but specifically on just scoring efficiency, Baylor is easily ahead.


OK, but at some point, you’re just rewarding a guy for facing weak competition. For instance, Baylor shot 78.0% from the line for his career. Westbrook shot 77.7%. However the average player shot 73.0% from the line during Baylor’s career compared to 76.4% during Westbrook’s career so Baylor gets a significant boost for his FT shooting while Russ doesn’t. Westbrook has a higher field goal percentage averaging almost 4 threes a game than Baylor does in a league where the 3 pointer’s nonexistent.

Baylor has a career rTS% of +1.1. Westbrook is at -2.3%. If we use the increase in FT% as a proxy for just raw shooting skill increase league-wide independent of rules or defense, they’re both equally efficient. If we say take away Russ’s first 2 years to make sure we’re not punishing him for his superior longevity, he’s actually more efficient than Baylor.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#10 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:59 pm

Mogspan wrote:I have tremendous respect for Draymond's game, but I'd have to go with Dwight here: 5x All-NBA First Team, 3x DPOY, 8x All-Star, 10th all-time in rebounds, 13th all-time in blocks, best player on a Finalist that beat athletic peak LeBron, legitimate contributor on a championship team at 34 years old. Could Orlando Dwight have rivaled Draymond's defensive impact if he hadn't had to worry about producing 20+ ppg on +12 TS%? I think so. Draymond, as GREAT as he is, is lucky to have been on some incredibly complementary teams in his athletic prime.

As much of a locker room cancer as Dwight was accused of being, he never assaulted a teammate, got himself suspended in the middle of a historically significant series, nor bullied an MVP-caliber player out of town. We may want to restrict discussions like these to on-court production, but it's clear that Draymond, like Terrell Owens, has effectively hurt his team's title chances more than once - and that's a worthwhile consideration when we're talking about career value.


So I don't want to hit Dwight super-hard thread after thread, but to just stay:

- DPOY is an accolade and I think Howard got overrated by the accolade while Green got underrated.

- I don't think Howard's impact was really affected by his offensive effort. He was super-young when he was winning DPOYs and really had energy to burn.

- Green hurt title chances. This is true...but Howard literally killed his franchise's title chances. He's basically got two years where he's the best player on a contender, and after that it's all disappointment very much related to him having a focus other than just doing what was best for his team.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:03 pm

Throughout careers:

Baylor: 49.4 TS% in RS, 49.7 TS% in PS
Westbrook: 52.6 TS% in RS, 50.8 TS% in PS

Throughout 5 years primes:

1959-63 Baylor: 49.9 TS% in RS, 51.2 TS% in PS
2014-18 Westbrook: 54.2 TS% in RS, 52.0 TS% in PS

Westbrook has the edge in raw RS efficiency, but he's also extremely turnover prone and he can't sustain that scoring production in the playoffs. When you look at postseason numbers, they look nearly identical - except that Baylor played in a significantly less efficient league and much tougher environment for perimeter creators.

I can understand the case for Westbrook overall, but Baylor clears him as a scorer.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#12 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:56 pm

The point about draymond's on court (and off court in the case of Poole) antics is definitely worth bringing up. As a duo with curry he provides all time great impact, and yet may have cost his team a championship because he couldn't control himself.

I don't know how you parse that out (especially since it wasn't an isolated incident), but it should affect his ranking somehow. It even comes into question is this guy a dirty player? I think "reckless" is more apt, but that's still a negative to me.

And this is coming from someone who respects how important his role has been in the warriors' title runs. I've always thought of him as "the straw that stirs the drink." That's what makes his volatility all the more frustrating.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Mon Nov 13, 2023 11:23 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:So between Westbrook and Baylor:

-Both were tremendous bulk scorers who struggled with efficiency

-Both rebounded excellently for their position

-Both were mediocre defenders

-Both had a very strong 6 year prime followed up with less successful seasons

The only real differences to me seem to be that Westbrook did it in a tougher era and that he’s a MUCH better passer/playmaker. What’s Baylor’s edge? Is he just Westbrook without the assists or am I missing something? I guess he’s slightly more efficient relative to era, but I think that’s just because his era was so much less efficient.

Baylor and Westbrook are almost identical free throw shooters and neither one’s particularly effective from the mid-range. Westbrook’s expected to be able to make threes to compete with the top scorers and be efficient while Baylor can just have a TS% under .500 and it’s good enough.

It seems like Westbrook has one really huge edge (passing and creation for others) while any little edges for Baylor are pretty nebulous and hard to find. What is the case for Baylor over Westbrook exactly?


Baylor was coached/mentored (and modelled his form after) what was conventional at the time; he wasn't the benefactor of the improved shot-mechanics of today.
He also didn't have the relative luxury of decent spacing/open lanes, and lax ball-handling rules. Nor did he have a 3pt-line to work with (and there are many indications that he could have been a capable 3pt shooter).

This is not to say any player that managed something like +2-3% rTS in the early 60s would automatically do the same today (some would plateau before that [while some scant few others might even IMPROVE, depending on 3pt prowess]). I'm just saying there's a reason we typically go with rTS% when comparing across vastly different eras; 'cause otherwise you're not really comparing apples to apples.
It's not apples to apples comparing rTS% either......but at least it's sort of close (apples to oranges, perhaps). Whereas not considering those era-related factors at all is maybe a bit like apples to cheeseburgers, imo: you can eat both, but that's more or less where the similarity ends.


I would also object on semantic grounds to saying Baylor is only "slightly more efficient relative to era"......

Russell Westbrook's single-BEST season in terms of rTS% was barely +1.3%.......Baylor has SIX seasons above that, peaking at +3.09%.

Not counting his final two seasons [mere handful of games], Baylor's single-WORST rTS% was -3.03% (which was actually a bit of an outlier within his career, fwiw: his next worst is -1.63%, and next after that is -0.23%).
Westbrook has SEVEN seasons with a WORSE rTS% than Baylor's worst [not counting the current season].

Looking cumulative TS Add, as pen has brought that up frequently:
Baylor has +533.7.
Westbrook has -1108.4.

Although I typically don't use straight up cumulative TS Add comparisons, I must note that a career difference of 1642.1 is probably a bit more than a "slight" edge.
Baylor has SIX seasons better than Westbrook's best TS Add; he has FOUR seasons that are more than twice Westbrook's best.
Westbrook only has five seasons where he's above 0........if we ADDED all five of those together, Baylor has FOUR seasons that [each individually] amount to more than Westbrook's five best.

Saying Baylor was "slightly" more efficient relative to league environment is sort of like saying Steph Curry has been "slightly" more efficient than Klay Thompson.
And as has been noted, the gap gets bigger in the playoffs.

Though it took him 2-3 years to figure it out, Baylor showed more ability and/or willingness to adapt his play-style after knee injuries had stolen much of his explosiveness: reducing his shot-volume [and re-establishing positive efficiency] and increasing passing/playmaking. His three best Ast/100 years are '69, '70, and '68 [in that order]. He had a positive rTS% in all three, as well ('70, in fact, is his 4th-best rTS% of his entire career).


I'd also note that Westbrook has one of the worst turnover economies among PG's that I've yet identified. Obviously Baylor is an unknown here, though the 4.5-5 games I've logged do not peg him as turnover-prone, fwiw (he'd have to be among the worst at his position for this to be a non-factor vs Westbrook).


I'm also uncertain I'd agree with characterizing both as "mediocre" defenders. I think Westbrook was outright poor in some years of his career; and I don't think I've ever read or seen anything to suggest the same of Baylor. And as noted in my vote post, there may even be some suggestions that Baylor was a small plus on defense.

As suggested in both my text and that quoted by FrogBros4Life, I think a case can be made that Baylor was simply more important to the trajectory of the sport, too (for whatever that's worth).


It's fine if you don't see it this way. But just to illustrate where others may be coming from......
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#14 » by Samurai » Tue Nov 14, 2023 3:34 am

Repeating votes from previous round:

Vote for #44: Elgin Baylor. Baylor was more highly regarded in his day than he is now. Back then when more advanced stats were unheard of and points were king, he was considered one of the very best in the game since he was a great volume scorer. Now we can look at his stats and realize he was not a particularly efficient shooter and in hindsight it would have made more sense to have West be the primary alpha on offense rather than splitting that role with Baylor. But we're getting to the point in looking at the others not yet nominated that Baylor deserves a mention. He was a ten-time All NBA First Team member, finished in the top 5 in points/game 8 times, and an excellent rebounder with 8 top ten finishes in rebounds/game. And while not known as much for his playmaking as his scoring, he still had 6 top ten finishes in assists/game. In the days before Dr J and long before MJ, Baylor was a pioneer in combining strength with grace, hops and that seemingly impossible trait of "hanging in the air" longer than what many deemed possible. I only saw Baylor play live after injuries took away much of his earlier athleticism, so the "magic" of Baylor was more what my dad would tell me about how incredible he was in his younger days. When my dad saw Dr J, and later Jordan, he felt he was seeing a younger Baylor reincarnated.

Alternate vote: Russell Westbrook. Not a fan and I wouldn't necessarily want him on my team if I were picking from scratch. But I'm having trouble continuing to not nominate him based on my personal playstyle preferences. MVP in 2017 and 9-time All NBA Team member (2 first team, 5 second team and 2 third team selections). Led the league twice in points/game and three times in assists/game. I don't highly value his triple doubles since I tend to think he was a stat padder, particularly his rebounding, but he was still a very good defensive rebounder for a guard.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#15 » by homecourtloss » Tue Nov 14, 2023 4:32 am

Vote: Draymond Green
Alt vote: Dwight Howard


Draymond’s Case

We have too many pieces of data, including RAPM with confidence levels, playoffs only RAPM, effect on win probability, etc., to not seriously consider Draymond here.

OhayoKD wrote:Regular Season

Image

1. Lebron, 5.54, 274K Poss
2. KG, 5.1, 206K Poss
3. CP3, 4.8, 181K Poss
4. Steph, 4.7, 142K Poss
5. Duncan, 4.7, 241K Poss
6. Manu, 4.3, 131K Poss
7. Draymond, 4.25, 110K Poss
8. PG, 4.05, 126K Poss
9. Dirk, 3.89, 238K Poss
10, Lillard, 3.87, 112K Poss
HM: Harden, Shaq, Lowry

Playoffs

Image

1. Lebron, 5.9, 41K Poss
2. Draymond, 5.5, 18K Poss
3. Manu, 5.2, 23K Poss
4. KG, 4.8, 19K Poss
5. Duncan, 4.3, 34K Poss
6. Curry, 4.2, 17K Poss
7. Harden, 4.1, 22k Poss
8. Shaq, 3.9, 24K Poss
9. KD, 3.7, 24K Poss
10. PG, 3.2, 16K Poss
HM: Allen, Danny Green, Westbrook

Biggest Risers (Using graph 2 RS)

1. Draymond, +1.2
2. Rondo, +.9
3. Manu, +.8
4. Billups, +.7
5. Prince, +.7
6. Horry, +.6
7. Danny Green, +.6
8. Lebron, +.3
9. Harden, +.3
10. Westbrook, +3
HM: Allen, Wade, Shaq

Notes

-> Lebron, Manu, and Draymond are the only players with a top-10 rs score to see an increase in their playoffs. That increase would have been higher for all 3 if I'd used graph 1 instead of graph 2.


2015, 2016, and 2017 Draymond in the playoffs:
Image

In JE’s RS+PS 1997-2022 RAPM set, there is tiny set of players who are -4 career defense impact players and the majority of them are negatives on offense, or are basically neutral. A player who can be a monster defensive impact player, and be a positive impact offensive player is a unicorn, a unicorn who is going to give your team a chance to win over a long stretch of time.

In JE’s set, we have nearly 2,500 player careers and out of these players, only TWO have a +2.0 or better ORAPM, and a -4 or better DRAPM, i.e., KG and Duncan. We only have three who are +1.5 or better ORAPM, and a -4 or better DRAPM, i.e., KG, Tim, and Draymond.

Image

And of course his overall impact

Image

Often people bring up that he is not a “rim protecting specialist,” but Draymond’s does provide a paint presence and rim protection, while also being one of the greatest defensive communicators of the past 25 years, allowing him to quarterback defenses.

Image

If you go through the seasons from 2015 through 2023, you see some elite tracking numbers for how much worse opponents shot against Draymond vs. everyone else for shots under 6 feet and under 10 feet from the rim. Pick any of the seasons at random; those numbers on the far right over there:

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image[/quote]

We saw this in the 2022 finals versus the Boston Celtics:

Nobody was making anything against Draymond these playoffs, especially in the paint or near the rim:

Image

And the Celtics didn’t do much better:

Image

Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown hated going up against him:

Image
Image

Earlier in the 2022 playoffs, Draymond was the only one who could slow down Jokić in a little bit, shooting 67% against everybody else:

Image

I could go on, but one last thing is JE’s study a player’s effect on win probability
Image
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#16 » by Mogspan » Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:10 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Mogspan wrote:I have tremendous respect for Draymond's game, but I'd have to go with Dwight here: 5x All-NBA First Team, 3x DPOY, 8x All-Star, 10th all-time in rebounds, 13th all-time in blocks, best player on a Finalist that beat athletic peak LeBron, legitimate contributor on a championship team at 34 years old. Could Orlando Dwight have rivaled Draymond's defensive impact if he hadn't had to worry about producing 20+ ppg on +12 TS%? I think so. Draymond, as GREAT as he is, is lucky to have been on some incredibly complementary teams in his athletic prime.

As much of a locker room cancer as Dwight was accused of being, he never assaulted a teammate, got himself suspended in the middle of a historically significant series, nor bullied an MVP-caliber player out of town. We may want to restrict discussions like these to on-court production, but it's clear that Draymond, like Terrell Owens, has effectively hurt his team's title chances more than once - and that's a worthwhile consideration when we're talking about career value.


So I don't want to hit Dwight super-hard thread after thread, but to just stay:

- DPOY is an accolade and I think Howard got overrated by the accolade while Green got underrated.

- I don't think Howard's impact was really affected by his offensive effort. He was super-young when he was winning DPOYs and really had energy to burn.

- Green hurt title chances. This is true...but Howard literally killed his franchise's title chances. He's basically got two years where he's the best player on a contender, and after that it's all disappointment very much related to him having a focus other than just doing what was best for his team.


You think a superstar requesting a trade because his best teammate after 8 seasons is Ryan Anderson is worse than a guy in an impossibly good situation costing his team a title by targeting people's crotches multiple times in the same postseason, sucker punching a max contract teammate, and bullying another teammate who happened to be a reigning 2x FMVP out of town? Gonna have to disagree with that. The Dwight thing is incidental; the Draymond thing is quintessential.

It's crazy to think that Draymond's defensive impact wouldn't be affected if he were expected to produce on offense what Dwight was.
Also, something that might surprise people. I think when it comes to athleticism, agility, physical attributes and skill I rate LeBron only in the top 50.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#17 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:56 pm

The only question I'd raise with Westbrook is is he essentially Dominique with bigger box scores(and probably worse decision making)? Also, without having the benefit of playing next to perhaps the greatest iso scorer of the last 25 years does he have any real team success to speak of? Just throwing it out there. Not that he and Nique should be ranked almost the same but I think that there's some major similarities that might be worth discussing.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#18 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 14, 2023 6:39 pm

Mogspan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Mogspan wrote:I have tremendous respect for Draymond's game, but I'd have to go with Dwight here: 5x All-NBA First Team, 3x DPOY, 8x All-Star, 10th all-time in rebounds, 13th all-time in blocks, best player on a Finalist that beat athletic peak LeBron, legitimate contributor on a championship team at 34 years old. Could Orlando Dwight have rivaled Draymond's defensive impact if he hadn't had to worry about producing 20+ ppg on +12 TS%? I think so. Draymond, as GREAT as he is, is lucky to have been on some incredibly complementary teams in his athletic prime.

As much of a locker room cancer as Dwight was accused of being, he never assaulted a teammate, got himself suspended in the middle of a historically significant series, nor bullied an MVP-caliber player out of town. We may want to restrict discussions like these to on-court production, but it's clear that Draymond, like Terrell Owens, has effectively hurt his team's title chances more than once - and that's a worthwhile consideration when we're talking about career value.


So I don't want to hit Dwight super-hard thread after thread, but to just stay:

- DPOY is an accolade and I think Howard got overrated by the accolade while Green got underrated.

- I don't think Howard's impact was really affected by his offensive effort. He was super-young when he was winning DPOYs and really had energy to burn.

- Green hurt title chances. This is true...but Howard literally killed his franchise's title chances. He's basically got two years where he's the best player on a contender, and after that it's all disappointment very much related to him having a focus other than just doing what was best for his team.


You think a superstar requesting a trade because his best teammate after 8 seasons is Ryan Anderson is worse than a guy in an impossibly good situation costing his team a title by targeting people's crotches multiple times in the same postseason, sucker punching a max contract teammate, and bullying another teammate who happened to be a reigning 2x FMVP out of town? Gonna have to disagree with that. The Dwight thing is incidental; the Draymond thing is quintessential.

It's crazy to think that Draymond's defensive impact wouldn't be affected if he were expected to produce on offense what Dwight was.


Calling what Howard did a trade request is very much not accurate. The threat was of him leaving in free agency, and it wasn't something where Howard sat idly by and just said "Hey, I'm going to leave in free agency". Howard, much like LeBron previously, was pushing the Magic to "do something or I might leave". The Magic of course had been top tier contenders already so it wasn't a question of "how to make the team competitive", it was just trying to figure out what would make Howard happy. They traded away Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis - arguably their two best non-Howard players - as part of this, which then made the team worse.

Further, Howard tried to get Van Gundy fired as coach, which is astonishing because we can now look back and know with a certainty that not only was Van Gundy doing great work, he was doing work ahead of his time with spacing.

So basically I would say that Howard had a situation that was as near to perfect as he could possibly expect, he didn't recognize it, and eventually his actions ruined what the Magic had.

And then of course he went to team after team after that and just couldn't ever seem to fit in with other talent with him playing any kind of secondary starring role. He would go almost a decade before finding a niche he could do decently - bench player - and even there teams didn't want to keep him from year to year.

If you want to say that what Green did is MORE immoral/unethical that's plausible, but I'm not talking about dinging a guy for morality points. What I'm talking about is building teams that can win titles, and ideally dynasties. You can do this with Green...but with Howard, I'm not so sure. Yeah they could have plausibly won a title if the right opponents got hurt, but in Howard you had an extremely immature basketball player who really didn't understand the dynamics of basketball teams and as a result wanted things that just weren't possible - such as to prove he could do post-up volume scoring like Shaq - in the name of his own star stature rather than what was best for the team.

Re: Draymond's defensive impact would be affected by being asked to do more on offense. That's not contradicting anything I said.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#19 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Nov 14, 2023 7:04 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Calling what Howard did a trade request is very much not accurate. The threat was of him leaving in free agency, and it wasn't something where Howard sat idly by and just said "Hey, I'm going to leave in free agency". Howard, much like LeBron previously, was pushing the Magic to "do something or I might leave". The Magic of course had been top tier contenders already so it wasn't a question of "how to make the team competitive", it was just trying to figure out what would make Howard happy. They traded away Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis - arguably their two best non-Howard players - as part of this, which then made the team worse.

Further, Howard tried to get Van Gundy fired as coach, which is astonishing because we can now look back and know with a certainty that not only was Van Gundy doing great work, he was doing work ahead of his time with spacing.

So basically I would say that Howard had a situation that was as near to perfect as he could possibly expect, he didn't recognize it, and eventually his actions ruined what the Magic had.

And then of course he went to team after team after that and just couldn't ever seem to fit in with other talent with him playing any kind of secondary starring role. He would go almost a decade before finding a niche he could do decently - bench player - and even there teams didn't want to keep him from year to year.

If you want to say that what Green did is MORE immoral/unethical that's plausible, but I'm not talking about dinging a guy for morality points. What I'm talking about is building teams that can win titles, and ideally dynasties. You can do this with Green...but with Howard, I'm not so sure. Yeah they could have plausibly won a title if the right opponents got hurt, but in Howard you had an extremely immature basketball player who really didn't understand the dynamics of basketball teams and as a result wanted things that just weren't possible - such as to prove he could do post-up volume scoring like Shaq - in the name of his own star stature rather than what was best for the team.

Re: Draymond's defensive impact would be affected by being asked to do more on offense. That's not contradicting anything I said.


I agree in the sense that Howard is one of those guys where I feel like his intangibles are a major detriment to his all time ranking. More so in that I think his real prime is very short(essentially his Orl years). Then he basically becomes a journeyman defender/rebounder with diminished athleticism. Without taking intangibles into it I can see the case for him being top 50 all time but with them I have a hard time seeing him as top 60 or so tbh.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #44 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 11/16/23) 

Post#20 » by Mogspan » Tue Nov 14, 2023 7:33 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Mogspan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
So I don't want to hit Dwight super-hard thread after thread, but to just stay:

- DPOY is an accolade and I think Howard got overrated by the accolade while Green got underrated.

- I don't think Howard's impact was really affected by his offensive effort. He was super-young when he was winning DPOYs and really had energy to burn.

- Green hurt title chances. This is true...but Howard literally killed his franchise's title chances. He's basically got two years where he's the best player on a contender, and after that it's all disappointment very much related to him having a focus other than just doing what was best for his team.


You think a superstar requesting a trade because his best teammate after 8 seasons is Ryan Anderson is worse than a guy in an impossibly good situation costing his team a title by targeting people's crotches multiple times in the same postseason, sucker punching a max contract teammate, and bullying another teammate who happened to be a reigning 2x FMVP out of town? Gonna have to disagree with that. The Dwight thing is incidental; the Draymond thing is quintessential.

It's crazy to think that Draymond's defensive impact wouldn't be affected if he were expected to produce on offense what Dwight was.


Calling what Howard did a trade request is very much not accurate. The threat was of him leaving in free agency, and it wasn't something where Howard sat idly by and just said "Hey, I'm going to leave in free agency". Howard, much like LeBron previously, was pushing the Magic to "do something or I might leave". The Magic of course had been top tier contenders already so it wasn't a question of "how to make the team competitive", it was just trying to figure out what would make Howard happy. They traded away Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis - arguably their two best non-Howard players - as part of this, which then made the team worse.

Further, Howard tried to get Van Gundy fired as coach, which is astonishing because we can now look back and know with a certainty that not only was Van Gundy doing great work, he was doing work ahead of his time with spacing.

So basically I would say that Howard had a situation that was as near to perfect as he could possibly expect, he didn't recognize it, and eventually his actions ruined what the Magic had.

And then of course he went to team after team after that and just couldn't ever seem to fit in with other talent with him playing any kind of secondary starring role. He would go almost a decade before finding a niche he could do decently - bench player - and even there teams didn't want to keep him from year to year.

If you want to say that what Green did is MORE immoral/unethical that's plausible, but I'm not talking about dinging a guy for morality points. What I'm talking about is building teams that can win titles, and ideally dynasties. You can do this with Green...but with Howard, I'm not so sure. Yeah they could have plausibly won a title if the right opponents got hurt, but in Howard you had an extremely immature basketball player who really didn't understand the dynamics of basketball teams and as a result wanted things that just weren't possible - such as to prove he could do post-up volume scoring like Shaq - in the name of his own star stature rather than what was best for the team.

Re: Draymond's defensive impact would be affected by being asked to do more on offense. That's not contradicting anything I said.


You're not sure if prime Dwight could have won several titles with Curry, Klay, and KD on his team? If Dwight was in a "near-perfect" situation, what do you call Draymond's situation? "Beyond" perfect? What would Draymond have looked like if he had played on those teams that Dwight did? You're in for a long season if Draymond is legitimately your team's best player. They each have their foibles, but you're going to blame a physically compromised Dwight for butting heads with a curmudgeonly Kobe and James "the grass is always greener" Harden when Draymond demonstrably could not have played nice even if becoming the best team of all-time depended on it? Dwight was at least partially a victim of circumstance, whereas Draymond is a perpetrator of circumstance - a ticking time bomb of inevitable self-sabotage. It's just who he is. I have more doubt that Draymond ever in a million years could stay in line than I do that a young Dwight could have gotten with the program had he been lucky enough to play with multiple docile HoF offensive players simultaneously, at their peaks, in a culture that books will be written about.

That absolutely contradicts what you implied. You said that Dwight shouldn't be given credit for his offensive responsibilities because they shouldn't really have affected his defense. A corollary of that is that an increase in Draymond's offensive responsibilities shouldn't have marginalized his defense.
Also, something that might surprise people. I think when it comes to athleticism, agility, physical attributes and skill I rate LeBron only in the top 50.

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