Deni Avdija - Part II

[prime1time]

If you look closely when Avdija plays, you really have to wonder if you're watching the same player as a rookie. How has he actually improved? BPM dropped from his 2nd to his 3rd year. 3P% dropped 2nd to 3rd year. Vorp dropped 2nd to 3rd year. Win Shares dropped 2nd to 3rd year. FT% dropped 2nd to 3rd year. Can people on this board really look at Avdija and credibly argue that he's a real building block going forward? They signed him to lead the tank and be a good locker room guy. There's really no comparison between him and a guy like Hachimura - a player who's expected to contribute in a big way for a contender. Also, hilarious to see people discredit Hachimura's playoff success.

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If Avdija can't score in the regular season, do we really think he'll be able to score in the playoffs? Barring major improvement from Avdija, this might be his last contract. And, honestly, I'm surprised he got it. But we suck anyway so it's water under the bridge.

[nate33]

What never ceases to amaze about attempts to put down Rui, is that the arguments always more about how Rui is bad, than Deni is actually good. They love on/off because it circumvents fair criticism surrounding Avdija's lack of offensive improvement. Then they discredit Rui's playoff success because it's a small sample size.

I agree that Deni has never been that great. The only reason I was comparing him to Rui is that wco81 was questioning why Benjammin thought Deni was better than Rui for our team. I think, when you factor defense, assists and rebounding, Deni is indeed better. It's relevant because Rui has a contract that provides a frame of reference to compare Deni's contract.

If Rui's contract is fair, then Deni's contract is better because it's a cheaper contract and (I think) Deni is a better player. I don't see why this makes you so upset.

[wco81]

What never ceases to amaze about attempts to put down Rui, is that the arguments always more about how Rui is bad, than Deni is actually good. They love on/off because it circumvents fair criticism surrounding Avdija's lack of offensive improvement. Then they discredit Rui's playoff success because it's a small sample size.

I agree that Deni has never been that great. The only reason I was comparing him to Rui is that wco81 was questioning why Benjammin thought Deni was better than Rui for our team. I think, when you factor defense, assists and rebounding, Deni is indeed better. It's relevant because Rui has a contract that provides a frame of reference to compare Deni's contract.

If Rui's contract is fair, then Deni's contract is better because it's a cheaper contract and (I think) Deni is a better player. I don't see why this makes you so upset.

Remains to be seen that Deni is better for the Wizards.

Nor do we know what kind of contract he might have gotten in free agency.

Rui did help his value with his play after the trade.


Could you also argue now, since the Wizards have traded away Beal and KP, two of their top scorers last year, that the team needs more scoring?

In any event, teams clearly pay based on scoring, unless you're talking about all-defense or DPOY level of defense.

[payitforward]

What never ceases to amaze about attempts to put down Rui, is that the arguments always more about how Rui is bad, than Deni is actually good. They love on/off because it circumvents fair criticism surrounding Avdija's lack of offensive improvement....

I tell you what, prime: no one can say you lack persistence!

Why would anyone pick Rui in particular to "put down?" As opposed to some other player?

When I make a judgement about Rui's play, I do it the same way I judge any other player -- Deni or anyone else. The judgement is based directly on the numbers Rui or Deni or anyone else puts up.

Of course I also take position into account, so those numbers are only directly meaningful when you compare them either to another combo forward or to the average numbers for combo forwards. But, otherwise, the judgement is just in the numbers, nowhere else. For Rui. For Deni. For absolutely any other player -- no exceptions.

Do you actually doubt that...

......this (is) really a good way to objectively analyze players?...

If, for example, Joe Blow's numbers overall last season were better than Harry Houdini's numbers overall last season, then, overall, Joe was "better" than Harry. Assuming they play the same position.

Now, that doesn't mean Harry was actually good, of course. To find out whether he was actually good, you'd have to compare his numbers to the average numbers of a guy who plays his position.

What can possibly be wrong with doing this? With looking at a player's numbers & comparing them with average numbers for his position? Or with another such player's numbers?

...Then they discredit Rui's playoff success because it's a small sample size....

No way. Besides, how do you "discredit" someone's play when the level of that play is... in the numbers!

In fact, it's worth pointing out that -- in comparison w/ Deni -- Rui's numbers in a Lakers uni during the regular season (not just the playoffs) were better than Deni's overall regular season numbers.

To put that another way, Rui was a better player for the Lakers than Deni was for the Wizards. Period.

If he does that again this season, then for sure we should start saying that Rui's a better player than Deni.

In fairness, we would keep in mind that Rui is almost 3 years older than Deni. If he can improve in those years, then maybe Deni will too. But until & unless Deni actually went on to do that, to improve his numbers until they were better than Rui's (as they have been so far in all three of his seasons overall), we wouldn't change the judgement.

OTOH, the definition of "good" is not "better than Deni," it's "better than average." I'd be happiest if both these guys got a lot better, both became above average NBA forwards. I'd say that's what we should all hope for. Up to the present, on a whole season, neither is anywhere close, although to be sure Rui's playoffs performance last Spring is an optimistic sign!

[Kanyewest]

Rui only playing 13.5 minutes per game with the Lakers. Maybe the Suns/Nuggets are bad matchups.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I don't see it as a competition. Both Deni and Rui are good players - not great players but good ones with different skillsets. Deni's contract is more than fine. Good teams need role players too and Deni is on a solid deal. Sad how things went down with Rui but it happens sometimes.

While it would have been nice to find even better players in the draft over the years the only major spot I see for complaint relatively recently (beyond trading picks away) is the Davis pick. That one hurt bad. Bilal takes a bit of thr sting off of it to be sure, but the Davis pick feels like a throwback to the 2011 draft.

[penbeast0]

...When I make a judgement about Rui's play, I do it the same way I judge any other player -- Deni or anyone else. The judgement is based directly on the numbers Rui or Deni or anyone else puts up.

Of course I also take position into account, so those numbers are only directly meaningful when you compare them either to another combo forward or to the average numbers for combo forwards. But, otherwise, the judgement is just in the numbers, nowhere else. For Rui. For Deni. For absolutely any other player -- no exceptions.

...

In fact, it's worth pointing out that -- in comparison w/ Deni -- Rui's numbers in a Lakers uni during the regular season (not just the playoffs) were better than Deni's overall regular season numbers.

To put that another way, Rui was a better player for the Lakers than Deni was for the Wizards. Period.

If he does that again this season, then for sure we should start saying that Rui's a better player than Deni.
...

Curious, what numbers are you using to evaluate Deni's and Rui's defense?

[payitforward]

That's a fair question, & of course a true assessment of a player would require equal attention to defense. Some defensive numbers are part of the usual mix -- e.g. defensive boards, blocks, steals & fouls -- but I made no attempt to factor in advanced statistics of any kind.

[WallToWall]

The individual improvement over the last few games has been good. He is playing within himself, and as much as possible, within the framework of the offense. His shot selection has been good, as has been his accuracy. He is starting to show range on his shot, and a more varied portfolio of shots. All good improvements. His individual defense has suffered a bit so far, but I attribute that to the whole team defense being atrocious. He will be 23yo in a few days. 14pts, 6rbs, 3assists on good efficiency an his new declining contract is quite a nice deal for the team. I really like his outlook.

[nate33]

The individual improvement over the last few games has been good. He is playing within himself, and as much as possible, within the framework of the offense. His shot selection has been good, as has been his accuracy. He is starting to show range on his shot, and a more varied portfolio of shots. All good improvements. His individual defense has suffered a bit so far, but I attribute that to the whole team defense being atrocious. He will be 23yo in a few days. 14pts, 6rbs, 3assists on good efficiency an his new declining contract is quite a nice deal for the team. I really like his outlook.

I think his individual defense has been quite good, and his team defense has been very good. I couldn't be happier with the way Deni has played. If this keeps up, he is an above-average starter in this league - the type of guy every team would love to have.

Per 36 minutes, he is averaging:
20.4 points
8.4 rebounds
5.0 assists
1.7 steals
1.7 turnovers
.652 TS%

Heck, those are All-Star caliber numbers, all while being the best (and only) defender on the team. And he is doing it without the crutch of having Porzingis space the floor for him.

He is pretty much the only bright spot of this horrific season. I guess Kuzma has been solid too, though his defense has slipped.

[badinage]

^ Hear, hear!

It shows the importance of patience, of giving a still-very-young player time to come into his own.

We gave up early on Rip, early on Rasheed, early on Webber, early on Wallace. I could go on and on …

[gambitx777]

He's already playing up to that contract

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[badinage]

Beyond.

Now imagine if they had taken the guy I wanted in the draft last year — Jalen Williams. The rebuild would be looking so much better: three wings with size and length in Avdija, Coulibaly, and Williams, three guys with (when they develop fully) versatility offensively. Sigh …

[Frichuela]

Beyond.

Now imagine if they had taken the guy I wanted in the draft last year — Jalen Williams. The rebuild would be looking so much better: three wings with size and length in Avdija, Coulibaly, and Williams, three guys with (when they develop fully) versatility offensively. Sigh …

But we got Johnny Davis…

I’m hopeful going forward on the ability of this front office to draft well…but obviously we are suffering from Ernie and Tommy’s blunders. The rebuild will be painful for 2-3 years minimum.

[9 and 20]

This man is on track to be most improved player. Cut way down on those sorry-looking attempts at the basket and goes up much stronger now most of the time. Also shooting a lot better. Looks more confident handling the ball. Plus he and Kuz play well together, it looks like.

[closg00]

Gonna repeat what I wrote in one of these threads, I would not have re-upped any of: Deni, Corey, and Davis, and I would have slept like a baby. Trying Davis over Corey would be worth a try, but Wes is locked on his rotation apparently.

[gambitx777]

Gonna repeat what I wrote in one of these threads, I would not have re-upped any of: Deni, Corey, and Davis, and I would have slept like a baby. Trying Davis over Corey would be worth a try, but Wes is locked on his rotation apparently.

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

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[NatP4]

Deni is averaging 16.6 points 5.2 assists 8 rebounds 1.5 steals on 57% TS as a 22 year old. His contract is going to be an absolute steal.

Kispert just simply is not playing enough. No reason for his minutes to drop from 28+ to 22. This was the problem with adding a scrub like Jordan Poole to block young players.

Davis has done NOTHING but improve since Feb. of last year. Better in the G-league, had a better stretch in the NBA, better summer league, better pre-season, better start to this year. Unseld just refuses to play him.

This is a rebuilding team that currently only plays two players under the age of 24 (Deni, Coulibaly). Zero reason to play any of Kuzma, Poole, Muscala, Shamet, Jones. Was all very predictable. Wes is a bottom tier coach. You have to take away his toys, not give him more.

[closg00]

Gonna repeat what I wrote in one of these threads, I would not have re-upped any of: Deni, Corey, and Davis, and I would have slept like a baby. Trying Davis over Corey would be worth a try, but Wes is locked on his rotation apparently.

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

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Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

[dobrojim]

The individual improvement over the last few games has been good. He is playing within himself, and as much as possible, within the framework of the offense. His shot selection has been good, as has been his accuracy. He is starting to show range on his shot, and a more varied portfolio of shots. All good improvements. His individual defense has suffered a bit so far, but I attribute that to the whole team defense being atrocious. He will be 23yo in a few days. 14pts, 6rbs, 3assists on good efficiency an his new declining contract is quite a nice deal for the team. I really like his outlook.

I think his individual defense has been quite good, and his team defense has been very good. I couldn't be happier with the way Deni has played. If this keeps up, he is an above-average starter in this league - the type of guy every team would love to have.

Per 36 minutes, he is averaging:
20.4 points
8.4 rebounds
5.0 assists
1.7 steals
1.7 turnovers
.652 TS%

Heck, those are All-Star caliber numbers, all while being the best (and only) defender on the team. And he is doing it without the crutch of having Porzingis space the floor for him.

He is pretty much the only bright spot of this horrific season. I guess Kuzma has been solid too, though his defense has slipped.

I agree with this. That said, last night at the end of what was otherwise another solid effort by Deni,
he made b2b horrible plays (TOs) that created positive mo for a TOR team that had looked pretty
awful all game up to that point. What does Deni take away from that game?

But the biggest culprit in the outcome was definitely WUJ for sitting Gaff down
and keeping him on the bench. We needed some D to get transition opportunities which
would get our offense going again. That was a significant aspect to our building a big lead.

Horrible loss to watch with the silver lining being at the end of the season
when we're "battling for lottery position" a loss here or there could be the
difference (looking at just one year, 1987, here) between an opp to take a decent or
an outstanding player. In 1987, we took Muggsy with the 12th pick. The three players taken
just before Muggsy were Reggie Miller, Ho Grant and Derrick McKey.
PiF might point out that Polynice was taken just ahead of those 3. But then
the next three ahead of Polynice were Kevin Johnson, Kenny Smith
and Scottie Pippen. Looking at the names after Muggsy, I can't
remember any of them being impactful players. Of course you always
want to draft well, but sometimes that requires having an earlier slot.
And 1987 could be an outlier year in that regard. Hard to say for sure
who or how many(!) impact players will be drafted in 2024.

Bilal looked really good last night. He made a bunch of outstanding plays.
We got a heartbreaking loss in a rebuilding year. The immediate question
is what will our young players learn from it. The long term question is how
tight will the bottom of the standings be at the end of the year. One slot
and therefore one loss can make a difference.

I've been wondering about WUJ for some time. AS a guy who began watching
this franchise was his father was a rookie, I'm pulling for him. But this game was
illuminating in a way that was really bad for him. So 'in game', he was horrible.
Is he a good enough developmental coach to have any positive future for us?

Agree with those who say JD should be getting some burn. After being
completely horrible at the beginning of last year he could only go up, and he has.
Playing him a bit more would be helpful in deciding what his future might look like.
Him not being in the rotation at all doesn't give us any real data. It only suggests
that WUJ hasn't seen enough from him in prax to put him in regular if still minimal
rotation minutes.