Deni Avdija - Part II

[nate33]

Gonna repeat what I wrote in one of these threads, I would not have re-upped any of: Deni, Corey, and Davis, and I would have slept like a baby. Trying Davis over Corey would be worth a try, but Wes is locked on his rotation apparently.

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

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Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

Deni is definitely better than that. He is the 2nd best player on the team right now. Granted, the team is terrible, but the 2nd best player on a terrible team might well be a 5th starter on a good team. I definitely think Deni is a regular 20-25 minute rotation player on most teams and a starter on some. He could start at PF on a team like Indiana, OKC or Atlanta. He could start at SF for Milwaukee, Dallas or Phoenix. He'd be great in Phoenix as a point forward, primary defender, and plus rebounder - fills all their holes. Denver would love him as a 6th man - a bigger, better version of Christian Braun.

[TGW]

Gonna repeat what I wrote in one of these threads, I would not have re-upped any of: Deni, Corey, and Davis, and I would have slept like a baby. Trying Davis over Corey would be worth a try, but Wes is locked on his rotation apparently.

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

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Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

Naw he's playing just fine. Don't agree here.

[closg00]

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

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Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

Naw he's playing just fine. Don't agree here.

Did you see Deni's TO prone run at PG, and having his shot stuffed on a regular basis? Yeah, we are asking too-much, he doesn't have the handles to be primary ball-handler, his best role is bench PF IMO.

[tontoz]

I think both things can be true, that Deni is our second best player and his role in the offense is too big currently. He is going to make too many mistakes with the ball in his hands.

At this point i am ok with that. We aren't trying to win now. Deni might actually learn to be more effective with the ball which will make him more valuable down the road when we are trying to be good. He isn't going to learn much if we just have him taking spot up jumpers and making straight line drives.

[gambitx777]

Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

Naw he's playing just fine. Don't agree here.

Did you see Deni's TO prone run at PG, and having his shot stuffed on a regular basis? Yeah, we are asking too-much, he doesn't have the handles to be primary ball-handler, his best role is bench PF IMO.

Because he isn't a PG lol a bad run at PG in his first year doesn't make him a bad starting PF when he's putting up career numbers.

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[Kanyewest]

Denis contract is so fantastic you can not complain about that. Corry has value. Johnny you're just hoping.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Deni is a fine bench player, we are just asking too-much of him and playing him too-many minutes, on a good team he is. 10-15 minute player.

Deni is definitely better than that. He is the 2nd best player on the team right now. Granted, the team is terrible, but the 2nd best player on a terrible team might well be a 5th starter on a good team. I definitely think Deni is a regular 20-25 minute rotation player on most teams and a starter on some. He could start at PF on a team like Indiana, OKC or Atlanta. He could start at SF for Milwaukee, Dallas or Phoenix. He'd be great in Phoenix as a point forward, primary defender, and plus rebounder - fills all their holes. Denver would love him as a 6th man - a bigger, better version of Christian Braun.

Yeah Deni has been playing well - although I'm not sure if he starts in Indiana, OKC, or Atlanta but at least it's a debate. Toppin is putting a TS% of 67% although I assume Deni would be a much better defender. Don't think Deni would beat out Dort or Jalen Williams. Saddiq Bey vs Deni is a debate- Bey is a better 3 point shooter, Deni has been better at getting to the rim- both have similar TS%. But at least Deni is improving.

[arusinov]

Yeah Deni has been playing well - although I'm not sure if he starts in Indiana, OKC, or Atlanta but at least it's a debate. Toppin is putting a TS% of 67% although I assume Deni would be a much better defender. Don't think Deni would beat out Dort or Jalen Williams. Saddiq Bey vs Deni is a debate- Bey is a better 3 point shooter, Deni has been better at getting to the rim- both have similar TS%. But at least Deni is improving.

Not only defense - rebounding, passing, ball-handling, in all those Deni is much better than Obi. Toppin can finish very well no doubt and so he's good match for a great passer like Hali

[Kanyewest]

Not only defense - rebounding, passing, ball-handling, in all those Deni is much better than Obi. Toppin can finish very well no doubt and so he's good match for a great passer like Hali

Oh yeah, Pacers may just chose to start Obi only because they already have Bruce Brown and Hali- a lot of teams may start Deni. But whatever Obi is doing with the Pacers is pretty good 61.7 FG% and 11 ppg. But I missed that Deni was a better rebounder so Deni probably is the better player at the moment.

[Halcyon]

Deni needs to learn how to be more crafty around the rim. He actually does an ok job getting there but can't finish since he has almost no explosiveness.

[Kanyewest]

I went to a game with a friend against the Suns last season. He's convinced that Deni isn't goo because he was so passive but I had a healthy disagreement recently that Deni is right now playing better than Poole. Funnily enough, when he saw Johnny Davis play he thought he had potential

The cliff notes on why Deni is better than Poole

- Better defender
- Better rebounder
- Better basketball IQ
- Is actually improving
- More efficient scorer

I guess we are still dealing with small sample sizes though.

[nate33]

Just playing with the on/off numbers a bit:

The team has a net rating of -7.6 points per 100 possessions. Not good. If we use Gill's minutes as a proxy for "garbage time" then things are actually much worse. In 64 garbage time minutes, the Wizards outscored the opposition by 35 points. So factor that into the net rating, and the the Wizards actually have a net rating of -10.2 in non-garbage time minutes.

When Deni is on the floor, they have a net rating of -9.2.
When Deni is off the floor, they have a net rating of -6.0.
So his net rating is -3.2

But again, most of this differential is due to the garbage time minutes boosting the non-Deni differential. All the starters suffer from the same issue. Kuzma's net rating is -15.0. Poole's is -27.6. Jones' is -19.3. Gafford's is -2.0. And Kispert, who plays off the bench but missed out on most of the garbage time runs, has a net rating of just +0.2. The only guys who look really good by net rating are the guys who played in garbage time (Gill is +46.4, Omoruyi is +26.3, Rollins is +57.8, PBJ is +47.9, Davis is +10.9). When compared to the other starters, Deni's net rating is quite good.

I noticed that Poole's net rating is a disaster, so I checked to see how much he was bringing down Deni's numbers. It turns out that Deni played alongside Poole a lot more than he did alongside any other player. Poole was on the court in 344 out of Avdija's 457 total minutes. The next highest guy is Jones at 281 minutes shared.

When sharing the court with Poole, Deni posted a net rating of -16.0. I did a little math and worked out that, when not alongside Poole, Deni's net rating was +48.2!. You read that right. In the 113 minutes that Deni wasn't saddled with Poole, the team outscored the opposition by 48.2 points per 100 possessions. That's why Deni still has a respectable on/off differential and the other starters don't. Deni has managed to absolutely kill it in the minutes he wasn't stuck with Poole.

[Frichuela]

Just playing with the on/off numbers a bit:

The team has a net rating of -7.6 points per 100 possessions. Not good. If we use Gill's minutes as a proxy for "garbage time" then things are actually much worse. In 64 garbage time minutes, the Wizards outscored the opposition by 35 points. So factor that into the net rating, and the the Wizards actually have a net rating of -10.2 in non-garbage time minutes.

When Deni is on the floor, they have a net rating of -9.2.
When Deni is off the floor, they have a net rating of -6.0.
So his net rating is -3.2

But again, most of this differential is due to the garbage time minutes boosting the non-Deni differential. All the starters suffer from the same issue. Kuzma's net rating is 15.0. Poole's is -27.6. Jones' is -19.3. Gafford's is -2.0. And Kispert, who plays off the bench but missed out on most of the garbage time runs, has a net rating of just +0.2. The only guys who look really good by net rating are the guys who played in garbage time (Gill is +46.4, Omoruyi is +26.3, Rollins is +57.8, PBJ is +47.9, Davis is +10.9). When compared to the other starters, Deni's net rating is quite good.

I noticed that Poole's net rating is a disaster, so I checked to see how much he was bringing down Deni's numbers. It turns out that Deni played alongside Poole a lot more than he did alongside any other player. Poole was on the court in 344 out of Avdija's 457 total minutes. The next highest guy is Jones at 281 minutes shared.

When sharing the court with Poole, Deni posted a net rating of -16.0. I did a little math and worked out that, when not alongside Poole, Deni's net rating was +48.2!. You read that right. In the 113 minutes that Deni wasn't saddled with Poole, the team outscored the opposition by 48.2 points per 100 possessions. That's why Deni still has a respectable on/off differential and the other starters don't. Deni has managed to absolutely kill it in the minutes he wasn't stuck with Poole.

What a disastrous performance by Poole this season. A ORtg of 94 and DRrg of 122 has to be historically awful for a player earning his share of the team’s cap.

[TGW]

I went to a game with a friend against the Suns last season. He's convinced that Deni isn't goo because he was so passive but I had a healthy disagreement recently that Deni is right now playing better than Poole. Funnily enough, when he saw Johnny Davis play he thought he had potential

The cliff notes on why Deni is better than Poole

- Better defender
- Better rebounder
- Better basketball IQ
- Is actually improving
- More efficient scorer

I guess we are still dealing with small sample sizes though.

How many drinks did your friend have?

[Frichuela]

Deni, on the other hand, is playing quite well this year. He is fourth in MPG at 26.9. He should be playing at least 5-7 more MPG. Who knows why that is the case…maybe Wes showcasing vets ahead of the deadline…

Deni is playing with full confidence this season and his outside shooting has improved markedly (much more arch). Winger and Dawkins nailed his extension with a team friendly declining contract to boot!

[Kanyewest]

I went to a game with a friend against the Suns last season. He's convinced that Deni isn't goo because he was so passive but I had a healthy disagreement recently that Deni is right now playing better than Poole. Funnily enough, when he saw Johnny Davis play he thought he had potential

The cliff notes on why Deni is better than Poole

- Better defender
- Better rebounder
- Better basketball IQ
- Is actually improving
- More efficient scorer

I guess we are still dealing with small sample sizes though.

How many drinks did your friend have?

He did have a cocktail. Although to give my friend credit, he changed his mind. Now, he believes the Wizards are better when Jordan Poole doesn't play, at least from the Bucks game at home.

[tontoz]

Deni is averaging 16.8 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%. He's shooting 40% from 3, he's making contested layups and he's actually dunking at times.

It seemed like he used to be allergic to dunking the ball. He is using the glass a lot more on layups. He used to try those soft finger rolls just over the front rim which are easy to miss and easy to block.

[Dark Faze]

Working on finishing and ball handling during the summer could raise his ceiling significantly I think. Nice to see the improvement so far.

[nate33]

Working on finishing and ball handling during the summer could raise his ceiling significantly I think. Nice to see the improvement so far.

He shoots 72.3% at the rim, which bests everyone on the team except Kuzma and Gallo. He has the highest percentage of his shots at the rim (38.7%) of anyone on the team except Gafford. Likewise, his shooting percentage in the 3-10 foot range is pretty good too, at 50%. That beats most of the guys on the team except floater expert Tyus, the pure shooters (Gallo and Kispert), and Gafford.

Obviously, anyone can continue to improve, but it's no longer accurate to say that Avdija has any kind of weakness finishing at the rim. It's a strength.

I'd like to see him work on his left hand. He only drives right and somehow manages to get away with it. But if he can master driving to the left with the same effectiveness, he would become an actual offensive weapon.

[nate33]

Another great thing about Avdija is that he promotes good team basketball. With his increased confidence in driving and shooting, the ball never sticks to him at all. When he gets it, he either shoots, makes and aggressive north-to-south move, or looks to swing the ball or run a dribble handoff. Having a guy like Avdija on your team just makes the offense much less boring to watch.

His turnover percentage is coming down too. A year ago, I was concerned that he might never become a true point forward and primary initiator because of his turnover rate. I thought he might peak at a guy capable of running secondary pick-and-rolls, but not really a point forward. But that no longer looks to be the case. I definitely can see him as the nominal point guard on the starting unit. He won't be a heliocentric Luka Doncic type of guy, but he could be the guy who initiates the offense alongside a star perimeter scorer. Sort of like how Pippen ran the offense for Jordan, or how Marcus Smart ran it for Tatum, or Draymond for Curry. That type of versatility could be critical down the road when we have good personnel around him. Most point guards are small and therefore defensive liabilities. But if our "point guard" is a 6-9 defensive ace, it should result in us having a very good defensive team.

I think Wes sees this potential and is giving Avdija a lot of time at PG on the second unit. It'll be real interesting to see if they move Tyus Jones by the Trade Deadline and really lean into the Avdija at PG concept. Maybe give Omoruyi all the minutes vacated by Avdija at backup PF.

[DCZards]

Another great thing about Avdija is that he promotes good team basketball. With his increased confidence in driving and shooting, the ball never sticks to him at all. When he gets it, he either shoots, makes and aggressive north-to-south move, or looks to swing the ball or run a dribble handoff. Having a guy like Avdija on your team just makes the offense much less boring to watch.

I think Wes sees this potential and is giving Avdija a lot of time at PG on the second unit. It'll be real interesting to see if they move Tyus Jones by the Trade Deadline and really lean into the Avdija at PG concept. Maybe give Omoruyi all the minutes vacated by Avdija at backup PF.

I agree with your assessment of Deni as an important offensive initiator. The Zards certainly play better team basketball when he’s on the court. As you say, he either shoots, quickly passes the ball, or tries to take his defender off the dribble.

But I don’t see the trading of Jones really changing much of Deni’s role as a ballhandler. Maybe he'd handle the ball a little more if Tyus is traded but he'd still be secondary ball handler. The Zards would still need a lead guard and I don’t see anyone on the current roster who can fill that role…maybe Wright or Butler.

Plus, asking Deni to take on too much of a role as a lead ballhandler (and forcing him to possibly have to deal with smaller, pesky defenders) could become somewhat of a physical drain on him and affect his ability to do what he does best, which is defend 3-4 positions.

You’re right about Deni’s ability to finish at the basket. Yes, his first couple of seasons you could say that was something Deni struggled to do, but now it’s one of his strengths. Quite a turnaround.