NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24

[ty 4191]

Can you show me how to run it? Giannis had like 5 games in the past 4 years where he got injured either in the early first or early second. There was also a couple games he had a blow-out with low minutes. Like I don't consider it a bad game if he played 1 minute.

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Go to "Game Finder". Sort by "Most games in combined seasons matching criteria". Sort by Game Score 30+ (or 10 or less) under under "Choose statistical filter".

Voila!

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Can you show me how to run it? Giannis had like 5 games in the past 4 years where he got injured either in the early first or early second. There was also a couple games he had a blow-out with low minutes. Like I don't consider it a bad game if he played 1 minute.

Subscribe to Stathead at Basketball Reference.

Go to "Game Finder". Sort by "Most games in combined seasons matching criteria". Sort by Game Score 30+ (or 10 or less) under under "Choose statistical filter".

Voila!

Thanks.

As a bucks homer, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that of the 11, I would say only 5 were actually bad games. 4 of those were games he played less than a quarter and 2 with limited minutes in 39/47 point WINs.

[HotRocks34]

last night showed why Luka's going to have uphill battle to win MVP.

Jokic and Embiid both had "off nights" by their standards, whether it was shooting or turnovers, and still managed to put up huge numbers.

Luka's off night, on the other hand, was a catastrophe. -26, 16 points, 8 turnovers, 2 rebounds, 2 assists a 20 point loss. You just don't see nights like from Jokic or Embiid.

Don't expect many nights like this from Luka.

What happened was they played the same team back to back (Pels) and the Pels made big adjustments from the first game and Dallas didn't.

Pels also had a stud defender come back (Herb Jones) who didn't play in the first game.

Luka will have clunkers, but this was more like a playoff game with adjustments than a regular season game.

[Wolfgang630]

I would take Kevin Durant off and put Haliburton on. Durant has zero chance. He’s been losing games and Booker is coming back. Booker is the best player on the team. Nobody on the Suns team has a chance for MVP

[bisme37]

I would take Kevin Durant off and put Haliburton on. Durant has zero chance. He’s been losing games and Booker is coming back. Booker is the best player on the team. Nobody on the Suns team has a chance for MVP

I almost did this exact thing but decided to stick with the betting odds even if they don't make total sense to me. Basically just so when people say the poll options suck I can blame the betting odds haha. Rather than me just saying, "well that's what I personally think so that's the way it is."

But yeah I agree Haliburton is a better MVP candidate than anyone on the Suns at the moment. But I'll continue to refresh the poll now and then, so if Hali keeps up his great play I imagine he'll get in there pretty soon.

[Exp0sed]

I'm updating the poll a bit by removing Booker and adding Anthony Edwards. So get your new votes in!

Here's how the poll results looked before the change (including my vote for Tatum when the poll first went up haha):

Spoiler:

Also it would really cool if you guys would stop bickering so dang much. It's only been 10 games and being an NBA fan is supposed to be fun.

Not that it really matters because Jokic is so dominant, but Haliburton >>> Edwards if you’re looking for a 10th guy with a case. 29.6 PER on .677 TS%, 306 WS/48, and 10.6 BPM while leading the best offense in the league. Edwards has a 21.0 PER on .586 TS%, .165 WS/48, and 4.4 BPM.

Agreed on the bickering too, but it kinda feels like it’s least being well confined to this thread and not bleeding over into the rest of the forum much.

I based the poll on current aggregate betting odds. Hali is playing great but he's only got the 14th best odds right now so he didn't make the cut this time.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

I have Hali #2 rn, he's been THAT good. odds or not, he should be on the poll

[Genjuro]

The Nuggets played a horrible game and won against a terrible Clippers team by just three points at home. They start now a four-game road trip, but the schedule doesn't seem that hard for the upcoming future. Let's hope Murray comes back healthy and soon enough. Otherwise they could start losing too many games and that would affect Jokic's odds.

[iggymcfrack]

Not that it really matters because Jokic is so dominant, but Haliburton >>> Edwards if you’re looking for a 10th guy with a case. 29.6 PER on .677 TS%, 306 WS/48, and 10.6 BPM while leading the best offense in the league. Edwards has a 21.0 PER on .586 TS%, .165 WS/48, and 4.4 BPM.

Agreed on the bickering too, but it kinda feels like it’s least being well confined to this thread and not bleeding over into the rest of the forum much.

I based the poll on current aggregate betting odds. Hali is playing great but he's only got the 14th best odds right now so he didn't make the cut this time.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

I have Hali #2 rn, he's been THAT good. odds or not, he should be on the poll

Honestly..... I don't disagree with this at all right now. His numbers are at least as good as everyone except for Jokic. He's carrying the #1 offense in the league. He's only missed one game. And the Pacers are +10.8 with him on the floor and -10.8 with him on the bench. The Warriors have been better with the bench unit than the starters, Embiid has a negative on/off so far, and after that awful game against the Pelicans, Luka doesn't match him box or impact. I think right now I'd have to go:

1. Jokic
2. Haliburton
3. Tatum

Tatum doesn't quite have the box stats of the others, but he has an on/off of +38.3 when next best on the team is Derrick White at +18.6.

[Woodsanity]

1. Jokic
2. Tatum
3. Embiid
4. Haliburton
5. Luka

Embiid drops one due to bad performance against Tatum.

[CobraCommander]

I’m looking at your post thinking you are implying that Jokic is an all time great - like a few rings from top 10...maybe already top 20....no one other than Lebron and Curry are top 20 right now IMO....but Jokic is trending (with 2 more rings) into the top 10-5 range...

I don't use rings as my barometer of greatness and value. Here's why:

Simple. Win more championships. What’s with these nerdy questions.

Ah yes, the (dreaded) "rings" argument again?

Michael Jordan through age 27, Playoffs, before they built a tremendous team around him:

-Playoffs (53 games)
-Team Record: 24-29
-Team Series Record: 5-6
-3 first round exits, including 2 first round sweeps
-Two ECF

Jordan's career line: 36.2/6.9/6.7 on +4.7% rTS. Led all players those years in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs.

Nikola Jokic through age 26, Playoffs:
-Playoffs: (48 games)
-Team Record: 21-27
-Team Series Record: 4-4
-1 first round exit
-1 WCF

Jokic's career line: 26.4/11.5/6.4 on +4.1 rTS%. Top 3 player in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs those 4 years.

Kevin Garnett through age 27, Playoffs:
-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 17-30
-Team Series Record: 2-8
-7 first round exits
-1 WCF

Garnett's career line: 23.3/13.4/5.0. 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs, those years, among players with 2000 MP. RAPM ranks him as the second most impactful player of 2002-2007 period, overall, in the NBA.

Wilt Chamberlain through age 28, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 21-26
-Team Series Record: 4-5
-Much shorter playoffs structure, so they're incompatible.

Still:

Wilt's career line: 33.4/26.0/3.2 on +4.7 tTS%. Clearly the MVP in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics.

Oscar Robertson through age 31, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (39 games)
-Team Record: 15-24
-Team Series Record: 2-6
-4 first round exits
-2 EDF

Oscar's career playoff line: 29.7/9.3/9.4 on an astounding +8.2 rTS%. Clearly, a top 2-3 player overall in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics. He had 8 triple doubles in those 39 games, and that's when the assist rule precluded assists if the player receiving the ball dribbled before he took the shot. Much harder to get assists back then vs. today.

What did Michael Jordan win before they built a tremendous team around him, while also bringing in arguably the greatest coach of all time?

What did Wilt win, while he had coaches (that got fired or resigned every year or so) 1960-1966?

What did he win before he got great coaches, teammates, ownership, management around him?

Or maybe, just maybe, “Ring count” is not about how great YOU are, but how great your teammates, coaches, management, ownership are?

Read on Twitter

You may not judge by rings but the rest of the world does- it’s last man standing.

Tmac and Vince and Nique and Drexler are all time great talent at wings that never led a team to a chip and thus we don’t even talk about them - honestly I’m not sure Wade or Kobe is better than Tmac or Nique or Prime Harden if they don’t have rings

And for goodness sake Barkley was a monster but - silence on him in the debate of greatest cause of the lack of rings-

The NBA isn’t a talent show- it’s about winning -

This is a Giannis and Jokic era because they have all the hardware after Lebron and Curry and Kawhi….


To be in the greatest all time conversation you have to win it all and be the best player standing on the best team a few times. Those the real rules.

In other words the stats make the winning possible - it’s objectively about being a prime contributor and overcoming everything to win it all- or someone like AI can be the best ever

[CobraCommander]

So are you implying Jokic is a all time great doing all time great things?

Absolutely.

I started a thread last week about Jokic's current all time ranking, here, and about 30% of people already put him top 10 all time, and 70% put in inside the top 20....

I don’t have him in top ten- I think those are prisoners of the moment - cause ask them who they kicking out the top 10… shaq? Kobe? Curry? Hakeem? Who getting kicked out?!

I have him pushing the top 20

[CobraCommander]

Poll over 80 jokic - and that’s low lol

[QPR]

I think the difference between winning a ring and multiple rings is less than the difference between winning a ring and not winning one.

If you win one as the best player, you've shown you can do it when it counts. Whether you win another 2-3 is definitely relevant but I don't think it's defining, as championships rely on so many different factors and often just come down to luck, team mates making big plays and health.

[Wolfgang630]

The year Jokic won it as a lower seed it was because the top seeds had no true standout superstar. Phoenix couldn’t decide if Booker or CP3 was more important.

This year isn’t the same. It’s great to see Anthony Edwards in the top 7 or so, but his year will come another time because the top seeds do have standout superstars.

Luka needs to be a top 2 seed. If his team ain’t over the Nuggets he’s not winning MVP imo. I expect the Celtics to be the number 1 seed which I think at the end of the year will put Tatum as a top 2 MVP candidate

[AussieCeltic]

It's obviously Jokic by a long way.

For Tatum to win it, the Celtics would have to win 60 - 65 games and Denver low 50's.

With Murray out for an extended period, I could see Denver "struggle" for a bit. By struggle, I mean just over the .500 mark while Murray is out.

[Exp0sed]

It's obviously Jokic by a long way.

For Tatum to win it, the Celtics would have to win 60 - 65 games and Denver low 50's.

With Murray out for an extended period, I could see Denver "struggle" for a bit. By struggle, I mean just over the .500 mark while Murray is out.

tbh, regular season Murray (especially early season Murray) isn't all that, just look at how Reggie Jackson has been performing and it's not like Murray is some great defender. I don't think the drop-off in the Jokic system from Murray to Jackson etc. is so large.
with that said, the rest of November for the Nuggets is brutal regardless

their next 10 games from the 18.11 to the 3.12 they are facing: @NOP, @CLE, @Det, @Orl, @Hou, SAS, @LAC, HOU, @PHX, @SAC

that's a much tougher schedule for their next 10 games than of the 10 they played so far, Nuggets are considerably better at home as well and haven't played much yet outside of Denver, even with Murray they'd be lucky to come out above 0.500 in those 10 imo.


P.s - ofc it's Jokic, dude had one bad shooting game from the field after averaging almost 70% on his 2's and that's what folks talk about, nevermind the 36\21\9 in a tough win lol.

36\21\9? that's ain't nothing! 8-23 is bad!

[Sgt Major]

Read on Twitter

[Mavrelous]

Tatum clears Embiid/Luka/Haliburton by good margin after today's game, solid 2nd in the race, with good case if Celtics finish with best record in the league.

1.Jokic
2.Tatum
3.Embiid/Luka/Haliburton

[Wolfgang630]

Tatum clears Embiid/Luka/Haliburton by good margin after today's game, solid 2nd in the race, with good case if Celtics finish with best record in the league.

1.Jokic
2.Tatum
3.Embiid/Luka/Haliburton

It’s going to be Jokic vs Tatum in the long run I see. We have first seeds with MVP caliber players. The seeding will matter this year.

[durden_tyler]

Nuggets and Sixers are expected to be among the top teams in their respective conferences. Dallas record (if they stay #2-#3 range at the end of the season) should sway the voters for Luka.