NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24

[BelgradeNugget]

It's obviously Jokic by a long way.

For Tatum to win it, the Celtics would have to win 60 - 65 games and Denver low 50's.

With Murray out for an extended period, I could see Denver "struggle" for a bit. By struggle, I mean just over the .500 mark while Murray is out.

tbh, regular season Murray (especially early season Murray) isn't all that, just look at how Reggie Jackson has been performing and it's not like Murray is some great defender. I don't think the drop-off in the Jokic system from Murray to Jackson etc. is so large.
with that said, the rest of November for the Nuggets is brutal regardless

their next 10 games from the 18.11 to the 3.12 they are facing: @NOP, @CLE, @Det, @Orl, @Hou, SAS, @LAC, HOU, @PHX, @SAC

that's a much tougher schedule for their next 10 games than of the 10 they played so far, Nuggets are considerably better at home as well and haven't played much yet outside of Denver, even with Murray they'd be lucky to come out above 0.500 in those 10 imo.


P.s - ofc it's Jokic, dude had one bad shooting game from the field after averaging almost 70% on his 2's and that's what folks talk about, nevermind the 36\21\9 in a tough win lol.

36\21\9? that's ain't nothing! 8-23 is bad!

Problem for Denver, while missing Murray is not replacing him as starting PG, problem is replacing Reggie as backup PG. Reggie so far, is doing everything Bruce Brown did last year. I knew he is a solid scorer and can run offense, but I had no idea he could be as good defensively. Nuggets have 6th best DEFRTG in the NBA and Reggie has the best DEFRTG among Nuggets rotation players.

With Murray out our backup PGs are Collin Gillespie - 2 way player and Jalen Pickett our rookie 2nd round pick. Before his injurie Nuggets bench was in + in majority of games, now they are big - again.

[Exp0sed]

Nuggets and Sixers are expected to be among the top teams in their respective conferences. Dallas record (if they stay #2-#3 range at the end of the season) should sway the voters for Luka.

Sixers played 8 games at home and 3 away and most of these games were against sub 0.500 teams:
Toronto (twice), Portland, Washington, Detroit, PHX with just KD - they won all those 6 games against the middling and bottom dwelling teams.

the 5 games left have been @ Bucks, twice vs. Indy and twice vs. Boston and they are 2-3 in those

we'll see how they look over the next 10 games

the Nuggets likewise, have played 7 games at home and just 4 away but their schedule has been a little tougher. they are now without Murray and facing a pretty brutal schedule for the next couple of weeks, we'll see where they are then

I honestly think Philly has started a little hot and we're kind of overachieving due to their weak schedule to start the season, I highly doubt the 76ers will be the 1st seed in the East or even the 2nd. I see them battling more for like 3rd or 4th seed.

[Exp0sed]

It's obviously Jokic by a long way.

For Tatum to win it, the Celtics would have to win 60 - 65 games and Denver low 50's.

With Murray out for an extended period, I could see Denver "struggle" for a bit. By struggle, I mean just over the .500 mark while Murray is out.

tbh, regular season Murray (especially early season Murray) isn't all that, just look at how Reggie Jackson has been performing and it's not like Murray is some great defender. I don't think the drop-off in the Jokic system from Murray to Jackson etc. is so large.
with that said, the rest of November for the Nuggets is brutal regardless

their next 10 games from the 18.11 to the 3.12 they are facing: @NOP, @CLE, @Det, @Orl, @Hou, SAS, @LAC, HOU, @PHX, @SAC

that's a much tougher schedule for their next 10 games than of the 10 they played so far, Nuggets are considerably better at home as well and haven't played much yet outside of Denver, even with Murray they'd be lucky to come out above 0.500 in those 10 imo.


P.s - ofc it's Jokic, dude had one bad shooting game from the field after averaging almost 70% on his 2's and that's what folks talk about, nevermind the 36\21\9 in a tough win lol.

36\21\9? that's ain't nothing! 8-23 is bad!

Problem for Denver, while missing Murray is not replacing him as starting PG, problem is replacing Reggie as backup PG. Reggie so far, is doing everything Bruce Brown did last year. I knew he is a solid scorer and can run offense, but I had no idea he could be as good defensively. Nuggets have 6th best DEFRTG in the NBA and Reggie has the best DEFRTG among Nuggets rotation players.

With Murray out our backup PGs are Collin Gillespie - 2 way player and Jalen Pickett our rookie 2nd round pick. Before his injurie Nuggets bench was in + in majority of games, now they are big - again.

The way Murray has played this season (on both ends) - this version of Reggie Jackson might be an upgrade
so yeah, you lose some because of the 3rd stringers being inept but some of that loss is balanced by what the starting lineup gains

as you well know, Nuggets are a much better team at home and 7 of their 11 games thus far have been at home. let's see how their DEFRTG looks when that balances itself out a little. 7-4 splits can really skew a tiny 11 games sample

[BelgradeNugget]

Again it is not Murray or Reggie, it is Murray or Collin Gillespie/Jalen Pickett on both ends.

One thing about Nuggets home/road

- starters 3PT% - home 38.7%, road 34.1%.
- bench 3PT% - home 37.1%, road 25.5%.

Way to beat the Nuggets is double teaming Jokic, and if they can't hit 3s you win. Jokic and Murray play a lot with the bench this season. Young players have much higher shooting disparity home/road than experience players like Murray (we saw him on the road in playoffs a lot )

[Jamaaliver]

If Pacers are top 4 in the East this year, TH gets my MVP votes.

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[California Gold]

If there’s a year for Tatum to win it this might be it. Likely comes down to health and stamina for him.

I’ve been watching a few of his games and he’s starting to post along midrange and take those Kobe-like turnaround fallaway shots. It’s refreshing to see this move come back in the NBA from a star.

[HotelVitale]

If Pacers are top 4 in the East this year, TH gets my MVP votes.

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I don't think he'll actually be in the running because he won't crack the god-tier of statistical production, but when we talk about importance or being 'most valuable' to your team Haliburton really is at the top of the heap. The Pacers would straight-up suck without him, be a bottom-5ish team. And with him they're likely going to win at least 45 games. He also allows and sets the tone for their whole style of play, in addition to being the regular go-to guy down the stretch. He's as central to his team as Luka is, and I'm not sure anyone else is that fundamentally important to an individual team's success.

(Also he's shooting 50% from 3 this month so prob won't keep up the scoring quite like that).

[Jamaaliver]

If Pacers are top 4 in the East this year, TH gets my MVP votes.

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I don't think he'll actually be in the running because he won't crack the god-tier of statistical production...

With this level of efficiency and the elite assist numbers, he'll likely get Steve Nash-like MVP consideration -- if his team is winning at a high enough clip.

[HotelVitale]

If Pacers are top 4 in the East this year, TH gets my MVP votes.

I don't think he'll actually be in the running because he won't crack the god-tier of statistical production...

With this level of efficiency and the elite assist numbers, he'll likely get Steve Nash-like MVP consideration -- if his team is winning at a high enough clip.

Steve Nash was the engine of a runaway #1 seed and legit contender. The Pacers will win games but they really aren't close to that level of team, even with good luck. That'll probably leave Haliburton out of serious contention even if he gets brought up in conversation a lot.

[Special_Puppy]

What's the argument for Tatum being MVP if Jokic continues doing Jokic things? Is it just best player on best team? Will anybody seriously think that the Celitcs are a better regular season team because Tatum is a better regular season player than Jokic?

[Jamaaliver]

Steve Nash was the engine of a runaway #1 seed and legit contender. The Pacers will win games but they really aren't close to that level of team, even with good luck. That'll probably leave Haliburton out of serious contention even if he gets brought up in conversation a lot.

We'll see, bro. But I don't think anyone outside of the state of Indiana saw Pacers as a top-3 team in the East before the season started.

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[iggymcfrack]

Nuggets and Sixers are expected to be among the top teams in their respective conferences. Dallas record (if they stay #2-#3 range at the end of the season) should sway the voters for Luka.

Dallas has an SRS of 1.78. That’s good for 6th in the West and 13th overall. They’ve rode a very easy schedule to get to 9-3, but there’s not much that’s sustainable about it. A top 3 seed at the end of the season would still be very surprising.

Also, with Jokic having the cred of dominating the playoffs last year after getting screwed out of an MVP, Luka just leading his team to almost as good of a record with worse numbers isn’t going to win him the award. Realistically, the Mavs would probably need to finish ahead of Denver. And that seems incredibly unlikely barring injury.

Realistically, I’d probably give Jokic a 70-75% chance of winning MVP and I’d have Luka on the fringes more like 5%. If there’s an upset, I think Tatum has the best chance as the Celtics’ dominance with him on the floor has been completely unprecedented.

[Wolfgang630]

If I’m joker I’m going for 4 MVPs. There won’t be no racist commentary this year. I don’t see it being vitriol this year. If come February he’s still at the top of the MVP straw polls, then he needs to push through and finish the season out.

[-Luke-]

Steve Nash was the engine of a runaway #1 seed and legit contender. The Pacers will win games but they really aren't close to that level of team, even with good luck. That'll probably leave Haliburton out of serious contention even if he gets brought up in conversation a lot.

We'll see, bro. But I don't think anyone outside of the state of Indiana saw Pacers as a top-3 team in the East before the season started.

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32 assists without a turnover in two games is insane. I wonder what's the NBA record for most consecutive assists without a turnover.

[ROballer]

Steve Nash was the engine of a runaway #1 seed and legit contender. The Pacers will win games but they really aren't close to that level of team, even with good luck. That'll probably leave Haliburton out of serious contention even if he gets brought up in conversation a lot.

We'll see, bro. But I don't think anyone outside of the state of Indiana saw Pacers as a top-3 team in the East before the season started.

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32 assists without a turnover in two games is insane. I wonder what's the NBA record for most consecutive assists without a turnover.

He actually has 37 consecutive assists after his last turnover right now.

Had 5 more in the game prior to the Philly games.


Also worth mentioning the Pacers are scoring 128,8 points per game in the 10 games he played thus far. Scored under 120 just once.

All time record is 126,5 by the Nuggets in 81-82'.

[ty 4191]

You may not judge by rings but the rest of the world does- it’s last man standing.

And the rest of the world judged pitchers based on their win loss percentage for about 125 years of MLB. And that was IT. That doesn't mean the reasoning and logic behind it was deeply flawed, not to mention facile and specious.

I just showed the career records of Jokic, Garnett, Jordan, Robertson, Chamberlain...all before they got great teammates, coaches, GM's, owners, and systems to work inside. They were, each, clearly the most valuable players in their leagues, for several or many years, each, and yet got no rings.

And you dismissively hand wave all that research and all those facts away and simply shout "RANGZ!!!!" again.

This is why it's very hard to debate with some people online.

[ty 4191]

So are you implying Jokic is a all time great doing all time great things?

Absolutely.

I started a thread last week about Jokic's current all time ranking, here, and about 30% of people already put him top 10 all time, and 70% put in inside the top 20....

I don’t have him in top ten- I think those are prisoners of the moment - cause ask them who they kicking out the top 10… shaq? Kobe? Curry? Hakeem? Who getting kicked out?!

I have him pushing the top 20

You don't think prime Jokic, the past 4 seasons, has been more valuable than Prime Kobe? Prime Shaq?

[Exp0sed]

I don't think he'll actually be in the running because he won't crack the god-tier of statistical production...

With this level of efficiency and the elite assist numbers, he'll likely get Steve Nash-like MVP consideration -- if his team is winning at a high enough clip.

Steve Nash was the engine of a runaway #1 seed and legit contender. The Pacers will win games but they really aren't close to that level of team, even with good luck. That'll probably leave Haliburton out of serious contention even if he gets brought up in conversation a lot.

Nash also had much better teammates.
Haliburton thus far this season is better than Nash and that's without even talking about defense

you think Nash would be the runaway #1 seed with Mathurin, Turner, Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown?

[ITYSL]

If Pacers are top 4 in the East this year, TH gets my MVP votes.

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Seems like a situation where he might win it a year or two after he deserves to win it. You see that sometimes.

[Special_Puppy]

Absolutely.

I started a thread last week about Jokic's current all time ranking, here, and about 30% of people already put him top 10 all time, and 70% put in inside the top 20....

I don’t have him in top ten- I think those are prisoners of the moment - cause ask them who they kicking out the top 10… shaq? Kobe? Curry? Hakeem? Who getting kicked out?!

I have him pushing the top 20

You don't think prime Jokic, the past 4 seasons, has been more valuable than Prime Kobe? Prime Shaq?

Its extremely hard to grade Jokic until he actually exits his prime. If be the best player in the world for 5 years that's different than being statistically the best player in the world for 10 years